Inundation Frequency Research Articles

Vertical and lateral distribution of Foraminifera and Ostracoda in the East Frisian Wadden Sea – developing a transfer function for relative sea-level change

In light of rising sea levels and increased storm surge hazards, detailed information on relative sea-level (RSL) histories and local controlling mechanisms is required to support future projections and to better prepare for future coastal-protection challenges. This study contributes to deciphering Holocene RSL changes at the German North Sea coast in high resolution by developing a transfer function for RSL change. Recent associations of Foraminifera and Ostracoda from low intertidal to supratidal settings of the barrier island of Spiekeroog in combination with environmental parameters (granulometry, C/N, TOC, salinity) were investigated and quantified in elevation steps of 15 cm in order to generate a first transfer function (TF) of Holocene RSL change. In a future step, the TF can be applied to the stratigraphic record. Our data show a clear vertical zonation of foraminifer and ostracod taxa between the middle salt marsh and the tidal flat with very few individuals in the sand flat area, suggesting removal by the tidal current or poor preservation. Multivariate statistics identify the elevation, i.e. the inundation frequency, as main driving factor. The smallest vertical error (49 cm) is associated with an entirely new approach of combining Foraminifera and Ostracoda for a TF. Advantages of the TF over classical RSL indicators such as basal and intercalated peat – beside the relatively narrow indicative meaning – include the possible application to a wide range of intertidal facies and that it does not depend on compaction-prone peat.

Mangrove dynamics and environmental changes on Koh Chang, Thailand during the last millennium

A 1500-year record of mangrove dynamics has been established from palaeoecological analyses on three cores from Salak Phet Bay, Koh Chang island in the eastern Gulf of Thailand. The occurrence of Rhizophora, accompanied by other mangrove species, suggested that Salak Phet Bay supported a mangrove community from at least 1500 cal yr BP. From 1500 cal yr BP the mangrove extent decreased indicating less inundation frequency, possibly in response to a sea-level fall until 1300 cal yr BP. Following this regression, sea-level rise resulted in an increased presence of mangrove taxa until 500 cal yr BP. The study documents that Salak Phet Bay was characterised by relatively low saline conditions based on the occurrence of the moist-loving species (Oncosperma) around 1500-500 cal yr BP. After 500 cal yr BP mangrove taxa gradually decreased and terrestrial herbaceous taxa, mainly grasses, increased suggesting that the frequency of marine inundation was reduced as sea level fell. Drier conditions were also recorded by an increase in terrestrial grasses and a decrease in Oncosperma after 500 cal yr BP. In the uppermost sediments the increased presence of Rhizophora is probably associated with recent global sea-level rise although changes in mangrove composition are possibly related to human activities within Koh Chang. The sedimentation rate and the mangrove migration at Koh Chang have kept pace over the past 1500 years but this may be challenged under predicted future rapid sea-level rise as accommodation space for mangroves to migrate inland is required to maintain viable mangrove forests.

The effects of simulated inundation duration and frequency on litter decomposition: A one-year experiment

There is major uncertainty in the responses of litter decomposition to the inundation regimes in field studies, mainly because of the difficulties in identification of the individual effect of duration and frequency using field studies alone. The interactive role of inundation regime and litter quality also remains unclear. The responses of mass loss to simulated inundation regime (duration and frequency) and litter quality were investigated in leaves of Carex brevicuspis and leaves and stems of Miscanthus sacchariflorus from Dongting Lake, China. Three litter types differing in litter quality were incubated under seven different inundations over 360 days (three single inundations of 90, 180, and 360 days; three repeated 180-day inundations of 2, 3, and 6 times; and no inundations) in a pond near Dongting Lake. Initial N and P contents were highest in C. brevicuspis leaves, intermediate in M. sacchariflorus leaves, and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems, whereas the organic C, cellulose, and lignin contents were ranked in the opposite order among the three litter types. Decomposition rate was highest in M. sacchariflorus leaves (0.00222–0.00900 day−1), intermediate in C. brevicuspis leaves (0.00135–0.00500 day−1), and lowest in M. sacchariflorus stems (0.00080–0.00100 day−1). The decomposition rate of both C. brevicuspis and M. sacchariflorus leaves increased with increasing inundation duration or decreasing frequency. However, both duration and frequency of inundation had no effect on decomposition of M. sacchariflorus stems. At the end of the incubation, N mineralization was complete in leaf litters with increasing rates with increasing inundation duration or decreasing inundation frequency, but accumulation was found in M. sacchariflorus stems. Organic C decayed quickly in both leaf litters compared with the stem litter. These data indicate that inundation regime has no effect on the decomposition of refractory stem litter while prolonged and stable inundation stimulates the degradation of labile leaf litter.

Seasonal dynamics and changing sea level as determinants of the community and trophic structure of oribatid mites in a salt marsh of the Wadden Sea.

Global change processes affect seasonal dynamics of salt marshes and thereby their plant and animal communities. However, these changes have been little investigated for microarthropod communities. We studied the effect of seasonality and changes in sea level on oribatid mites in the natural salt marsh and on artificial islands in the back-barrier environment of the island Spiekeroog (Wadden Sea, Germany). Three zones of the artificial islands were filled with transplanted sods from the lower salt marsh zone and thereby exposed to three different inundation frequencies. We hypothesized that oribatid mite communities will differ along the natural salt marsh vegetation zones [upper salt marsh (USM), lower salt marsh (LSM), pioneer zone (PZ)], which are influenced by different tidal regimes. Accordingly, total oribatid mite densities declined from the USM and LSM to the PZ. Similarly, oribatid mite species compositions changed along the salt marsh transect and also responded to variations in inundation frequency in LSM on artificial islands with typical species of the USM, LSM and PZ being Multioppia neglecta (USM), Hermannia pulchella (LSM), Zachvatkinibates quadrivertex (LSM, PZ) and Ameronothrus schneideri (LSM, PZ). Oribatid mite density in the salt marsh and on the artificial islands was at a maximum in winter and spring; this was due in part to high density of juveniles, pointing to two reproductive periods. We hypothesized that oribatid mite trophic structure changes due to variations in abiotic (e.g., tidal dynamics, temperature) and biotic conditions (e.g., resource availability). Stable isotope (15N, 13C) and neutral lipid fatty acid analyses indicated that oribatid mite species have different diets with e.g., Z. quadrivertex feeding on macroalgae and fungi, A. schneideri feeding on microalgae and bacteria, and Scheloribates laevigatus and M. neglecta feeding on dead organic matter, bacteria and fungi. Overall, the results indicate that oribatid mite species in salt marshes are affected by changes in environmental factors such as inundation intensity, with the effects being most pronounced in species with narrow trophic niches and limited niche plasticity. The results also indicate that oribatid mite communities of the LSM respond little to short-term (one year) changes in inundation frequency.

Controls on Sediment Suspension, Flux, and Marsh Deposition near a Bay-Marsh Boundary

The sustainability of marshes adjacent to coastal bays is driven by the exchange of sediment across the marsh-bay boundary, where edge erosion commonly leads to lateral marsh loss and enhanced vertical accretion. The timing and patterns of sediment deposition on salt marshes adjacent to larger bodies of water such as coastal bays, however, differ from those on better-studied tidal creek marshes primarily owing to the importance of wind-waves. We combined field measurements and modeling to examine controls on suspended sediment concentrations and fluxes on a tidal flat (tidal range of 1.2 m) and rates of sediment deposition on the adjacent marsh at a site on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. Suspended sediment concentrations over tidal flats were strongly controlled by waves. Yet, storm winds sufficient to drive large resuspension events often coincided with peak tidal elevations that were too low to flood the marsh, which was oriented away from the wind directions most favorable for storm surge, thereby restricting storm-driven, episodic sediment delivery to the marsh. Winds also drove wide variability in the direction of surface currents near the marsh edge when water depths were high enough to flood the marsh. Nevertheless, our results show that sediment in the upper water column over the tidal flat was effectively transported across the marsh edge during flooding tides. A sediment deposition model developed to investigate the combined effects of vegetation and wave action on depositional patterns predicted that waves displace maximum deposition inland from the marsh edge, consistent with measured deposition at the study site. Marsh deposition was sensitive to inundation frequency as well as the concentration of sediment in water flooding the marsh, underscoring the importance of nontidal controls on water surface elevation, such as meteorological effects (e.g., storm surge) and sea level rise. Whereas short-term increases in marsh inundation enhance deposition, sea level rise that results in deeper average water depths over the tidal flats decreases deposition if marsh elevation is rising in step with sea level.

Restoring in‐stream habitat in urban catchments: Modify flow or the channel?

AbstractUrban streams have almost universally altered physical habitat conditions due to excess stormwater run‐off. This includes changes to in‐channel hydraulics and channel morphology. Restoration of in‐channel habitat has two main levers: address the hydrology or channel morphology. Both variables impact in‐stream habitat, but understanding the relative role of hydrologic and morphologic change remains a challenge. This study uses two‐dimensional hydraulic modelling to examine the relative roles of flow and channel morphology in setting hydraulic conditions. We investigated four test scenarios involving the combinations of urban versus natural hydrology and urban versus natural channel morphology. The analysis investigated three ecologically relevant hydraulics characteristics: bed mobilization, retentive habitat, and floodplain inundation, using Shields stress, shallow slow‐water habitat (SSWH) area, and floodplain inundation area hydraulic metrics, respectively. The results indicate substantial differences in hydraulic conditions between the two reaches. The urban reach showed increased bed mobility potential and SSWH availability plummeted as flow increased, whereas the natural channel showed a relatively stable bed with substantially more SSWH at most flows. Floodplain inundation frequency was low in the urban channel with decreased duration. Scenarios examined suggest that hydraulic conditions are highly sensitive to channel morphology relative to flow regime. This suggests that once channel form has been degraded, mitigating urbanization impacts on flow regime cannot maintain “natural” channel hydraulics. Management approaches therefore must protect channel morphology from change. Where the channel has already been fundamentally altered, opportunities for channel morphology rehabilitation need to be considered.

Climatically-Controlled River Terraces in Eastern Australia

In the tectonically stable rivers of eastern Australia, changes in response to sediment supply and flow regime are likely driven by both regional climatic (allogenic) factors and intrinsic (autogenic) geomorphic controls. Contentious debate has ensued as to which is the dominant factor in the evolution of valley floors and the formation of late Quaternary terraces preserved along many coastal streams. Preliminary chronostratigraphic data from river terraces along four streams in subtropical Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia, indicate regionally synchronous terrace abandonment between 7.5–10.8 ka. All optically stimulated luminescence ages are within 1σ error and yield a mean age of incision at 9.24 ± 0.93 ka. Limited samples of the upper parts of the inset floodplains from three of the four streams yield near-surface ages of 600–500 years. Terrace sediments consist of vertically accreted fine sandy silts to cohesive clays, while top stratum of the floodplains are comprised of clay loams to fine-medium sands. The inundation frequency of these alluvial surfaces depends on their specific valley setting. In narrow valley settings, where floodplains comprise <5% of the valley floor, terraces are inundated between the 20 and 50-year annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood, while in wide settings (floodplains >20%), the terraces are no longer inundated. Floodplain inundation frequencies also vary between these settings by an order of magnitude between 5- to 50-year AEP, respectively. The correlation of terrace abandonment within SEQ with fluvial and palaeoenvironmental records elsewhere in the subtropics, and more broadly across eastern Australia, are an indication that terrace abandonment has primarily been driven by climatic forcing. Contemporaneous channel incision in the early Holocene may have been driven by an increasingly warmer and wetter environment in SEQ, with a climate commensurate with the delivery of more extreme weather events. Following channel incision, many streams in SEQ have been largely confined to their entrenched “macrochannel” form that remains preserved within the valley floor.

Long-term effects of mining-induced subsidence on the trapping efficiency of floodplains

Abstract Effects of human activities such as land-use changes, flood protection measures, coal-mining activities, and urbanization on river-floodplain systems are widespread and have been well known to extensively change the hydro- and morphodynamics of rivers. Land subsidence, e.g., that caused by the extraction of coal in subsurface mining tunnels in riverine environments, results in local or large-scale ground-surface irregularities where sediment is eroded or deposited during flooding. This study determined the long-term effects of mining-induced subsidence on the trapping efficiency of floodplains. The Wurm River (Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany) provided a test case owing to its central location in a previous underground coal-mining region. To analyze the effects of mining subsidence on the trapping efficiency of floodplains, we developed a numerical model based on the Delft3D software that applied the embedded space-varying subsidence module. The time series for the space-varying changes of the surface elevation were defined on a computational grid. Results of nine scenarios showed that subsidence led to a local increase in the silt trapping efficiency on floodplains when subsidence generally increased the frequency and magnitude of floodplain inundation, and acted as a local trap for sediment. The model developed in this study is applicable to rivers with similar characteristics, such as small meandering rivers with large floodplains, where suspended sediment accounts predominantly for the deposition on floodplains.

Sequential fishways reconnect a coastal river reflecting restored migratory pathways for an entire fish community

River regulation infrastructure has been implicated in worldwide aquatic biodiversity loss. In‐stream barriers such as weirs prevent fish migration and the impact can be particularly severe for diadromous species. Fishways are frequently installed on in‐stream barriers to reconnect migratory pathways and rehabilitate diadromous fish populations. Sequential fishways may be necessary in rivers where multiple barriers prevent migration. We monitored a coastal fish community's response to fish passage restoration at 10 predominantly low‐level weirs in the freshwater reaches of the Nepean River in southeastern Australia. Few studies have simultaneously assessed fish community passage at successive fishways within a river system. Prior to the installation of the fishways, there was a gradient of reduced species diversity in an upstream direction including the absence of many diadromous species, despite the regular inundation frequency of most weirs. Following the installation of the fishways, species diversity was still greater in the downstream monitoring sites; however, there was evidence of a positive change in fish community structure in middle and upstream sites. Most notably, three diadromous species rapidly expanded their distribution upstream and one amphidromous species expanded its downstream distribution. This study demonstrates appropriately designed successive fishways can successfully reconnect river systems for an entire fish community, encompassing species with a broad range of swimming abilities and diverse life histories.

Examining the Influence of Tidal Stage on Salt Marsh Mapping Using High-Spatial-Resolution Satellite Remote Sensing and Topobathymetric LiDAR

Salt marsh vegetation extent and zonation are often controlled by bottom up factors determined in part by the frequency and duration of tidal inundation. Tidal inundation during remote-sensing mapping of salt marsh resources can alter the resulting image classification. The degree of this impact on mapping with very high resolution (VHR) imagery has yet to be determined. This paper utilizes topobathymetric light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data and bathtub models of a tidal stage at 5 cm intervals from mean low water (MLW) to mean high water (MHW) and determines the impact of tidal variation in salt marsh mapping within Jamaica Bay, NY, USA. Tidal inundation models were compared with the Worldview-2 and Quickbird-2 imageries acquired at a range of tidal stages. The modeled inundation of normalized difference vegetation index and smooth cordgrass (S. alterniflora) maps was compared from MLW to MHW. This paper finds that at 0.6 m above MLW, only 3.5% of S. alterniflora is inundated. This paper demonstrates a modeling approach integrating VHR satellite remote-sensing data and topobathymetric LiDAR data to address tidal variation in salt marsh mapping. The incremental modeling of the tidal stage is important for understanding areas most at risk from sea level rise and informs management decisions in accordance with this.

Controls on nitrogen transformation rates on restored floodplains along the Cosumnes River, California

Levee construction results in the systematic replumbing of river systems and reduces the frequency of floodplain inundation, which impacts nutrient delivery and transformations in floodplains. Floodplain restoration via levee removal affects downstream water quality by restoring soil microbial metabolic pathways such as denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA). Although these metabolisms are important for the nitrogen cycle, few studies have quantified the contribution of all three pathways to nitrate retention or loss in restored floodplains. The objectives of this study were to quantify the relevance of denitrification, anammox and DNRA to nitrogen retention, characterize the hydrologic conditions most favorable to each pathway, and estimate the potential for floodplain restoration to improve nitrogen cycling in the Cosumnes River watershed. To address these goals, we simulated flood conditions in soil mesocosms collected from two floodplains where levees were breached in 1997 and 2014 along the Lower Cosumnes River in the San Joaquin Basin of California. River water enriched with K15NO3 tracer was pumped into each mesocosm at a constant rate for a period of 3 months. Samples were collected from the surface water and soil pore water for measurements of NO3−, NO2−, and NH4+ concentrations, and δ15N of dissolved gases (N2 and N2O). To the best of our knowledge, this study reports the highest relative contribution to N2 production due to anammox for freshwater systems (41 to 84%) to date. High anammox rates were associated with heterogeneous grain size distribution across depth and high nitrification rates. We quantify the capacity of restored floodplain soils with distinct textural and chemical characteristics to retain or release nitrogen during large and small floods in a particular water year.

Decadal‐scale dynamics of an Amazonian mangrove caused by climate and sea level changes: Inferences from spatial–temporal analysis and digital elevation models

AbstractSea level rise and climate change are major forces driving wetland dynamics. The northern Brazilian coast has one of the largest continuous mangrove areas on Earth, with the mangroves from the Bragança Peninsula, in eastern Amazonia, being the most representative ones. These mangroves have migrated into higher tidal flats over recent years. We analyzed spatial–temporal changes of vegetation units adapted to different physical–chemical conditions along the Bragança Peninsula in order to decipher possible causes responsible for such recent mangrove dynamics. The investigation was based on time series analysis of a 33‐year (1984–2017) database consisting of satellite and drone images. These data were combined with digital elevation models based on topographical data obtained by photogrammetry, theodolite and hydrotopographic devices. During this time frame, mangroves invaded 2.7 km2 of inner tidal flats, which is compatible with a rise in relative sea level (RSL) and with a rainfall decreasing. Such topography‐dependent dynamic suggests that an increased frequency of tidal inundation decreased porewater salinity and caused mangroves to expand into topographically higher grounds. However, the study area contains small basins, that are less affected by tidal inundation, and Avicennia trees are dying in these locations due to increased porewater salinity, probably caused by a decreased rainfall. We propose that climate and RSL are responsible for driving the death of mangroves in the study area, and their migration into the topographically highest tidal flats. Assuming a RSL rise of 5 mm/yr under stable rainfall, or a RSL rise of 3 mm/yr accompanied by decreased rainfall, it is projected that mangrove areas will expand by 2.93 or 1.35 km2, respectively, by the end of this century. The combination of photogrammetry with theodolite/hydrotopographic surveying proved to be an efficient and innovative process for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of global changes on mangroves. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Functional and ecophysiological traits of Halimione portulacoides and Sarcocornia perennis ecotypes in Mediterranean salt marshes under different tidal exposures

AbstractThe present paper aims to discuss the functional and ecophysiological traits of two abundant succulent halophytes in Mediterranean salt marsh systems, considering two ecotypes differing on their tidal exposure. In Halimione portulacoides the higher root/shoot (R/S) biomass ratio verified in low inundation frequency (LF) marshes, as compared with that in high inundation frequency (HF), indicates an optimal partitioning strategy, inducing differential allocation patterns along with varying environmental factors. Conversely, Sarcocornia perennis appear to have an isometric allocation strategy, based on intrinsic biomass allocation mechanisms independent from the surrounding environmental conditions. Similarly, the photosynthetic traits appear to reflect the intrinsic ecology of the species. Sarcocornia perennis habitat adaptation to HF conditions is clearly revealed by its high photosynthetic efficiency under HF conditions. On the other hand, the cosmopolitan H. portulacoides shows no differences between ecotypes, in which concerns this trait, mostly due to the high carotenoid content of the HF ecotype, which allows this specie to counteract the stress generated during submersion. Additionally, anti‐oxidant enzymatic activities revealed that S. perennis presents a high degree of stress tolerance under HF conditions, while H. portulacoides is highly adapted to LF conditions. These functional (biomass‐related) and physiological traits determine the optimal habitats for H. portulacoides and S. perennis. While H. portulacoides optimal biomass partitioning, along with its efficient anti‐oxidant defence system, makes this species fitter to LF conditions, S. perennis isometric allocation strategy, along with a higher photosynthetic efficiency under frequent flooding conditions, provides this species the mechanisms to efficiently colonize the intertidal habitat.

Living shorelines enhance nitrogen removal capacity over time

Living shorelines are nature-based solutions to coastal erosion that can be constructed as salt marshes with fringing oyster reefs. Each of these habitats can decrease the potential for eutrophication through increased nitrogen (N) removal via denitrification. However, the development of N cycling over time has not been studied in living shorelines. This research measured denitrification rates in a chronosequence of living shorelines spanning 0–20 years in age in Bogue Sound, NC. Analyses were conducted seasonally from summer 2014 to spring 2015 along an elevation transect through the salt marsh, oyster reef, and adjacent sandflat at all sites. Gas fluxes (N2 and O2) from sediment core incubations were measured with a membrane inlet mass spectrometer (MIMS) to assess denitrification and sediment oxygen demand. Fluxes of dissolved nutrients and the greenhouse gas N2O were measured. Sediment properties, inundation frequency, oyster filtration rates, and marsh grass stem density were also quantified. There was no significant difference in denitrification rates among habitats. N removal consistently increased from the 0- to 7-year-old sites. Denitrification efficiency was always greater than 50% and positive N2O fluxes were negligible. Our results suggest that living shorelines increase net N removal within a relatively short time period following construction, without introducing deleterious greenhouse gas emissions. This demonstrates that living shorelines can play an important role in estuarine N cycling and management.

Comparing Landsat and RADARSAT for Current and Historical Dynamic Flood Mapping

Mapping the historical occurrence of flood water in time and space provides information that can be used to help mitigate damage from future flood events. In Canada, flood mapping has been performed mainly from RADARSAT imagery in near real-time to enhance situational awareness during an emergency, and more recently from Landsat to examine historical surface water dynamics from the mid-1980s to present. Here, we seek to integrate the two data sources for both operational and historical flood mapping. A main challenge of a multi-sensor approach is ensuring consistency between surface water mapped from sensors that fundamentally interact with the target differently, particularly in areas of flooded vegetation. In addition, automation of workflows that previously relied on manual interpretation is increasingly needed due to large data volumes contained within satellite image archives. Despite differences between data received from both sensors, common approaches to surface water and flooded vegetation mapping including multi-channel classification and region growing can be applied with sensor-specific adaptations for each. Historical open water maps from 202 Landsat scenes spanning the years 1985–2016 generated previously were enhanced to improve flooded vegetation mapping along the Saint John River in New Brunswick, Canada. Open water and flooded vegetation maps were created over the same region from 181 RADARSAT 1 and 2 scenes acquired between 2003–2016. Comparisons of maps from different sensors and hydrometric data were performed to examine consistency and robustness of products derived from different sensors. Simulations reveal that the methodology used to map open water from dual-pol RADARSAT 2 is insensitive to up to about 20% training error. Landsat depicts open water inundation well, while flooded vegetation can be reliably mapped in leaf-off conditions. RADARSAT mapped approximately 8% less open water area than Landsat and 0.5% more flooded vegetation, while the combined area of open water and flooded vegetation agreed to within 0.2% between sensors. Derived historical products depicting inundation frequency and trends were also generated from each sensor’s time-series of surface water maps and compared.

A comparison of methods used to monitor groundwater inundation of sea turtle nests

Sea turtle eggs are at risk of inundation and erosion throughout their incubation. Inundation reduces gas exchange necessary for proper embryonic development with prolonged exposure resulting in mortality. Management actions such as nest relocation may reduce this threat; however, they are often undertaken with incomplete information (e.g., tolerance of sea turtle embryos to inundation, and knowledge of the environmental differences between the original and final nest locations). Despite the need to understand the risk of sea turtle nest inundation, few studies measure inundation directly, and those that have, used PVC-based equipment with limited sampling resolution and measurement precision. To improve in situ inundation monitoring, we tested the use of electronic water level loggers (HOBO U20L-04) at loggerhead sea turtle nests, and compared costs, benefits, and limitations of this equipment to the PVC devices used in previous research. The HOBO loggers demonstrated >90% correlation with the PVC inundation devices in inundation frequency for both experimental sites and incubating nests. PVC devices tended to overestimate inundation duration (24.7 ± 5.0 h SE) and underestimate inundation severity (14.6% ± 6.6% SE) compared to the HOBO loggers. The greater temporal resolution and measurement precision of the HOBO logger provided higher quality data pertaining to inundation stress in the nests during inundation events over the PVC devices. Small-scale studies of inundation tolerance and other physiological responses to inundation would benefit from this improved data quality; however, the cost of each unit and associated software and hardware may be prohibitive for some monitoring programs. The PVC devices are low cost and simple to mass-produce, lending their use for large-scale monitoring efforts to better inform relocation decisions and productivity assessments.

Quantifying and predicting the benefits of environmental flows: Combining large‐scale monitoring data and expert knowledge within hierarchical Bayesian models

Abstract Despite large investments of public funds into environmental flows programs, we have little ability to make quantitative predictions of the ecological benefits of restored flow regimes. Rather, ecological predictions in environmental flow assessments typically have been qualitative and based largely upon expert opinion. Widely applicable, quantitative models would help to justify existing flow programs and to inform future planning. Here, we used a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of monitoring data coupled with expert‐derived prior distributions, to develop such a model. We quantified the relationship between the duration and frequency of inundation, and encroachment of terrestrial vegetation into regulated river channels. The analysis was informed by data from 27 sites on seven rivers. We found that longer inundation durations reduce terrestrial vegetation encroachment. For example, a 50‐day continuous inundation during winter reduced predicted vegetation cover to a median of 11% (95% CI: 7%–35%) of cover predicted under non‐inundated conditions. This effect varied among sites and rivers, and was moderated by the frequency of inundation events. The hierarchical structure improved precision of model predictions relative to simpler analysis structures. Informative prior distributions also improved precision relative to minimally informative priors. The hierarchical Bayesian analysis allows us to make quantitative predictions of ecological response under the full range of flow conditions, allowing us to assess the benefits of planned or delivered environmental flows. It can be used to make estimates of ecological effects at sites that have not been sampled, and also to scale up site‐level results to catchment and regional scales. Quantitative predictions of ecological effects provide a more objective risk‐based approach, allowing improved planning of environmental flows and building public confidence in these major investments of public funds.

The role of beach morphology on coastal cliff erosion under extreme waves

AbstractErosion of hard‐rock coastal cliffs is understood to be caused by a combination of both marine and sub‐aerial processes. Beach morphology, tidal elevation and significant wave heights, especially under extreme storm conditions, can lead to variability in wave energy flux to the cliff‐toe. Wave and water level measurements in the nearshore under energetic conditions are difficult to obtain and in situ observations are rare. Here we use monthly cliff‐face volume changes detected using terrestrial laser scanning alongside beach morphological changes and modelled nearshore hydrodynamics to examine how exposed cliffs respond to changes in extreme wave conditions and beach morphology. The measurements cover the North Atlantic storms of 2013 to 2014 and consider two exposed stretches of coastline (Porthleven and Godrevy, UK) with contrasting beach morphology fronting the cliffs; a flat dissipative sandy beach at Godrevy and a steep reflective gravel beach at Porthleven. Beach slope and the elevation of the beach–cliff junction were found to influence the frequency of cliff inundation and the power of wave–cliff impacts. Numerical modelling (XBeach‐G) showed that under highly energetic wave conditions, i.e. those that occurred in the North Atlantic during winter 2013–2014, with Hs = 5.5 m (dissipative site) and 8 m (reflective site), the combination of greater wave height and steeper beach at the reflective site led to amplified wave run‐up, subjecting these cliffs to waves over four times as powerful as those impacting the cliffs at the dissipative site (39 kWm‐1 compared with 9 kWm‐1). This study highlighted the sensitivity of cliff erosion to extreme wave conditions, where the majority (over 90% of the annual value) of cliff‐face erosion ensued during the winter. The significance of these short‐term erosion rates in the context of long‐term retreat illustrates the importance of incorporating short‐term beach and wave dynamics into geomorphological studies of coastal cliff change. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Inundation, Nutrient Availability and Plant Species Diversity on Fine Root Mass and Morphology Across a Saltmarsh Flooding Gradient.

Saltmarsh plants are exposed to multiple stresses including tidal inundation, salinity, wave action and sediment anoxia, which require specific root system adaptations to secure sufficient resource capture and firm anchorage in a temporary toxic environment. It is well known that many saltmarsh species develop large below-ground biomass (roots and rhizomes) but relations between fine roots, in particular, and the abiotic conditions in salt marshes are widely unknown. We studied fine root mass (<2 mm in diameter), fine root depth distribution and fine root morphology in three typical communities (Spartina anglica-dominated pioneer zone, Atriplex portulacoides-dominated lower marsh, Elytrigia atherica-dominated upper marsh) across elevational gradients in two tidal salt marshes of the German North Sea coast [a mostly sandy marsh on a barrier island (Spiekeroog), and a silty-clayey marsh on the mainland coast (Westerhever)]. Fine root mass in the 0–40 cm profile ranged between 750 and 2,500 g m−2 in all plots with maxima at both sites in the lower marsh with intermediate inundation frequency and highest plant species richness indicating an effect of biodiversity on fine root mass. Fine root mass and, even more, total fine root surface area (maximum 340 m2 m−2) were high compared to terrestrial grasslands, and were greater in the nutrient-poorer Spiekeroog marsh. Fine root density showed only a slight or no decrease toward 40 cm depth. We conclude that the standing fine root mass and morphology of these salt marshes is mainly under control of species identity and nutrient availability, but species richness is especially influential. The plants of the pioneer zone and lower marsh possess well adapted fine roots and large standing root masses despite the often water-saturated sediment.

Mid- to late-Holocene marine inundations inferred from coastal deposits facing the Nankai Trough in Nankoku, Kochi Prefecture, southern Japan

This study investigates the Holocene sedimentary history of a small coastal lowland in Nankoku, Kochi Prefecture, on the coast of southern Japan facing the Nankai Trough. The sedimentary fill of the lowland area consists mainly of marine-brackish clay overlain by beds of freshwater clay and peat. We found four laterally extensive sand sheets, one directly underlying the freshwater deposits and the other three interbedded with them. Radiocarbon dates show that these sand sheets were deposited between 5970 and 2440 cal. BP. Although the sand sheets contained few marine-brackish diatoms, they were concentrated in the seaward part of the study site, suggesting that they were deposited by marine inundations. These sand sheets were formed as a result of tsunamis or unusually large storm surges. The apparent frequency of marine inundations during 5970–2440 cal. BP was much lower than that of megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough recorded during the last 1300 years. Event deposits were absent between 2440 and 960 cal. BP, a gap that we attribute to the development of beach ridges. The new marine inundation records reported here will aid efforts to reconstruct the timing and recurrence intervals of megathrust earthquakes in the western Nankai Trough.