Interspecific Synchrony Research Articles

Drivers of interspecific synchrony and diversity-stability relationships in floodplain fish communities.

Diversity and interspecific synchrony are among the main drivers behind the temporal stability of community abundance. Diversity can increase stability through the portfolio effect, while higher synchrony generally decreases stability. In turn, species interactions and similar responses to environmental variation are considered the main factors underlying the strength of interspecific synchrony, despite the challenges in determining their relative roles. The analysis of the relationship between interspecific synchrony and the trait (or phylogenetic) distance between species can increase the robustness of inferences about these factors. Here, we used pairwise interspecific and community-wide analyses to investigate, respectively, the drivers of interspecific synchrony and the influence of trait and phylogenetic diversity on the stability of fish communities. For that, we used 18 years of fish abundance data from the Upper Paraná River floodplain. At the interspecific level, we used quantile regressions to test within-guild relationships between interspecific synchrony and trait and phylogenetic distance between species. At the community level, we tested the relationships between community-wide synchrony, stability, and (trait and phylogenetic) diversity. We found that interspecific synchrony decreased with trait and phylogenetic distances. In the community-level analysis, we found that more synchronous fish communities were less stable, but the relationship between diversity and stability was in general weak. At the interspecific level, our study highlights the role of similar responses to environmental variation in driving species' temporal dynamics. At the community level, the strength of the relationships between trait or phylogenetic diversity and community stability depended on the feeding guild. On the other hand, we found strong relationships between synchrony and stability. These results suggest that increased synchrony levels in response to regional environmental changes could decrease the stability of fish communities in this floodplain.

Flowering phenology patterns promotes pollination facilitation in coexisting Anthurium species from a mountain forest in Colombia

AbstractCo-flowering congeneric plant species may either experience competition for the services of shared pollinators or facilitation when together, they attract a higher number and diversity of pollinators. In this study, we evaluate whether temporal segregation in flowering time and temporal partition of shared pollinators operate among sympatric Anthurium species as mechanisms to reduce competition to attract potential pollinators. We investigated flowering phenology, the intra-e interspecific synchrony, and the composition of the flower visitor community of seven coexisting Anthurium species biweekly for a whole year in Native and Pine forests. We also analyzed the structure of Anthurium -flower visitor networks and the functional role of species. Flowering was continuous thorough the year for most Anthurium species, but their flowering peaks were segregated significantly in time. Although the flowering periods of these species overlapped, flower visitor communities were very dissimilar among Anthurium species, sharing only a tiny fraction of insects that function as connectors among species in the network. The partition of potential pollinators in a fine temporal scale occurred through the rewiring of shared flower visitors to the most abundant flowering Anthurium species. On the other hand, a high number of inflorescences attracted larger abundance and richness of insect visitors. Facilitation occurred almost throughout the year, while competition occurred during the flowering peak, where a particular species was the best competitor increasing the constancy of pollinators. This study highlights the role of facilitation and competition as mechanisms that together shape the use of potential pollinator resources between sympatric congeneric plant species.

Temperature and biodiversity influence community stability differently in birds and fishes.

Determining the factors that affect community stability is crucial to understanding the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of global warming. We investigated how four temperature components (that is, median, variability, trend and extremes) affected diversity-synchrony-stability relationships for 1,246 bird and 580 fish communities from temperate regions. We hypothesized a stabilizing effect on the community if the variation in species' response to changing median temperature decreases overall community synchrony (hypothesis H1) and if temperature extremes reduce interspecific synchrony at extreme abundances due to variation in species' thermal tolerance limits (hypothesis H2). We found support for H1 in fish and for H2 in bird communities. Here we showed that the abiotic components (that is, the median, variability, trend and extremes of temperature) had more indirect effects on community stability, predominantly by affecting the biotic components (that is, diversity, synchrony). Considering various temperature components' direct as well as indirect impacts on stability for terrestrial versus aquatic communities will improve our mechanistic understanding of biodiversity change in response to global climatic stressors.

Is staggered flowering phenology favoured by phenotypic selection? The case of two co-occurring Cnidoscolus species

Staggered flowering phenology in sympatric plant species that share pollinators is often considered the ultimate strategy for avoiding pollinator competition or a facilitative strategy to maintain pollinators throughout the year. Some factors of the abiotic environment may also contribute to the maintenance of staggered flowering. Flowering (a)synchrony among conspecifics is recognized as a trait with selective value. However, little research has addressed phenotypic selection for (a)synchrony with other plant species. Here, I experimentaly examined the flowering phenology of two sympatric congeneric species (Cnidoscolus aconitifolius & C. souzae) that share pollinators and measured phenotypic selection on this trait. Preliminary field observation suggests that these species exhibit staggered flowering, so my main goal was to assess phenotypic selection on flowering (a)synchrony between the two study species (interspecific synchrony). I predicted that the plants that present greater interspecific synchrony would be selected against and would thus contribute to the maintenance of staggered flowering. However, the patterns of phenotypic selection found were counterintuitive: individuals of C. souzae with greater intraspecific synchrony were selected against, while those with greater interspecific synchrony with C. aconitifolius were favoured by phenotypic selection. I also found the opposite pattern of flower production response to temperature in this system, implying that the abiotic environment could partly explain the occurrence of staggered flowering. Since the phenotypic selection found in this study may select against the observed staggered flowering, reciprocal phenotypic selection between co-occurring plants cannot be invoked as a mechanism underlying staggered flowering phenology in these two Cnidoscolus species.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

Temperature variation generates interspecific synchrony but spatial asynchrony in survival for freshwater fish communities.

Identifying environmental drivers of demographic variation is key to predicting community-level impacts in response to global change. Climate conditions can synchronize population trends and can occur both spatially for populations of the same species, and across multiple species within the same local community. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns of temporal variation in survival for freshwater fish communities in two geographically close but isolated sites and to understand the amount of variation accounted for by abiotic covariates including metrics of water temperature and stream flow. Using mark-recapture data, we estimated bi-monthly apparent survival in a Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber framework. The model included random effects to quantify temporal variance to understand species synchrony with the rest of the fish community and between sites. Study species included bluehead chub (Nocomis leptocephalus), creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), and striped jumprock (Moxostoma rupiscartes) in the southeastern USA. Results showed that survival varied over time and periods of low survival were associated with higher mean water temperature. However, temporal patterns of survival differed among species and between sites, where survival was synchronous among species within a site but asynchronous between sites for the same species despite their spatial proximity. Study streams differed in summer thermal regimes, which resulted in contrasting summer survival patterns, suggesting sensitivity of these fishes to warming. We found that interspecific synchrony was greater than spatial synchrony, where regional drivers such as temperature may interact with local habitat leading to differences in survival patterns at fine spatial scales. Finally, these findings show that changes in the timing and magnitude of environmental conditions can be critical in limiting vital rates and that some populations may be more resilient to climate variation than others.

Do mixed-species groups of capuchin (Sapajus apella) and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) synchronize their behaviour?

In the wild, coordinated behaviour across group members is essential for maintaining spatial coherence, with potential implications for individual fitness. Such coordination often leads to behavioural synchrony (performing the same behaviour at the same time). Tufted capuchins (Sapajus apella) and squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciureus) are known to form mixed-species groups (MSGs), travelling and foraging together. Yet, it is unclear if it is necessary to synchronize behaviours in captivity when ecological pressures are minimal compared to the wild. We investigated the extent to which two MSGs of capuchins (N = 35) and squirrel monkeys (N = 26) synchronized their behaviour with conspecifics and heterospecifics at the Living Links to Human Evolution Research Centre, RZSS, Edinburgh Zoo, UK. Group activities were sampled by instantaneous scans of all visible individuals. Scans (n = 180) were analysed for five most frequently observed behaviours. Intraspecies synchrony was calculated using Simpson's Diversity Index, and interspecies synchrony was measured using cross-correlations. Intraspecific synchrony was significantly greater compared to randomly aggregated data, while cross-correlations indicated interspecific asynchrony. Living together did not lead to interspecific synchrony as may be expected given the coordination and behaviour described in the wild, and shared husbandry in captivity. Overall, our findings highlight differences in the behavioural structure of single- versus MSGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Mixed-species groups and aggregations: shaping ecological and behavioural patterns and processes'.

Density‐dependent reproductive success among sympatric dipterocarps during a major mast fruiting event

AbstractAlthough masting in Southeast Asia is characterized by the interspecific synchronization of reproduction, little is known about the variation in regeneration strategies among sympatric tree species during major masting events. Herein, we examined the hypothesis that non‐abundant species achieve greater seed survival per seed production at the pre‐ and post‐dispersal stages by synchronizing reproduction with abundant species. During the masting event from May to September 2010, we installed seed traps in a primary forest plot of the Deramakot Forest Reserve, Borneo. To identify the possible causes of post‐dispersal seed mortality, we conducted a seed‐sowing experiment from September 2010 to July 2011 in a primary forest plot with high community‐level dipterocarp seed density and two surrounding secondary forests with low seed densities. An abundant species (Shorea multiflora) produced more seeds than other species and exhibited a lower survival rate during the pre‐dispersal stage. The ratio of aborted seeds was greater in species with greater seed production, while the ratio of seeds predated by insects was not, suggesting that resource limitations and/or greater inbreeding frequency may explain inefficient seed production. Interspecific variation was rarely observed for post‐dispersal seed survival rates. Our study highlights the density‐dependent variation in reproductive success between abundant and non‐abundant dipterocarp species at the pre‐dispersal stage. Non‐abundant species achieved greater reproductive success by synchronizing reproduction with the masting of abundant species, which might be an important mechanism for sustainability of rare species populations.

Interspecific synchrony on breeding performance and the role of anthropogenic food subsidies.

Synchrony can have important consequences for long-term metapopulations persistence, community dynamics and ecosystems functioning. While the causes and consequences of intra-specific synchrony on population size and demographic rates have received considerable attention only a few factors that may affect inter-specific synchrony have been described. We formulate the hypothesis that food subsidies can buffer the influence of environmental stochasticity on community dynamics, disrupting and masking originally synchronized systems. To illustrate this hypothesis, we assessed the consequences of European policies implementation affecting subsidy availability on the temporal synchrony of egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in two sympatric marine top predators with differential subsidy use. We show how 7-year synchrony appears on egg volume fluctuations after subsidy cessation suggesting that food subsidies could disrupt interspecific synchrony. Moreover, cross correlation increased after subsidy cessation and environmental buffering seems to act during synchronization period. We emphasize that subsidies dynamics and waste management provide novel insights on the emergence of synchrony in natural populations.

Diversity, phenology and voltinism of Chironomidae (Diptera). Neotropical streams as a study model.

Studies of the relationships between the temporal variation of biological phenomena and environmental factors are essential to understanding the dynamics of communities. Phenology is a structuring element and, together with voltinism, is related to timing of reproductive activities. The aim of this study is to ascertain the structure and composition of the Chironomid assemblage and its emergence patterns in relation to the environmental variables through the use of the Chironomid pupal exuviae technique using the Neotropical streams as a model. The streams presented similar species compositions. The highest density of pupal exuviae was recorded during spring and the greatest richness in late summer and early autumn. Chironominae presented greater prevalence throughout the year with oscillations for Orthocladiinae and Tanypodinae. Chironominae and Tanypodinae presented emergence peaks in spring-summer and Orthocladiinae in autumn-winter. Rainfall, photoperiod and water and air temperatures structured the Chironomid assemblage, influencing emergence. Univoltine, bivoltine and multivoltine species were recorded. The species presented interspecific synchronization in emergence peaks at different times of the year.

What factors relate with the activity synchronization intensity among big cats and their ungulate prey in Northeast China?

The activity synchronization rhythm is an important aspect of measuring interspecific interactions between predators and prey, and crucial for large carnivores conservation. However, little is known about what factors relate their activity synchronization dynamics. With the climate change and human society development, the spatial-temporal distribution and activity synchronized rhythm of large carnivores and their prey would inevitably be affected, which would further affect the adaptability of large carnivores and bring new challenges to their conservation. In this study, we hypothesized the ambient temperature and human activity would influence the activity synchronization intensity among Amur tiger, Amur leopard and ungulates (roe deer, sika deer and wild boar) through cross-correlation function and temporal niche overlap model based on the camera traps data. The result show that the activity rhythms of the five target species showed species and seasonal differences, the temporal niche overlaps between ungulates were normally higher than that between the cats and prey, the weakest overlap was observed between the two big cat species, and time-lags of similar rhythmic activity can reduce the temporal overlap pressures of species. Furthermore, we found that ambient temperature relate interspecific synchrony of roe deer-sika deer and roe deer-wild boar pairs at the daily scale. And at hourly scale, temperature and human activities exerted significantly positive or negative stresses on the interspecific activity synchronization of all target species, observed in all three seasons. Our study provides new insights on our understanding of the mechanisms by which sympatric predators and ungulate prey coexist and interact in view of temporal niche overlap, as well as how wildlife managers can manage the mammal assembly effectively. As the Amur tiger and leopard populations in China are being recovered quickly, the rapidly increasing predation pressure and limited environmental resources could have profound implications for the interaction and coexistence among these two large carnivores and their ungulate prey. Managers should strengthen the monitoring, and understand its causes and consequences, so as to develop effective protective measures.

Interspecific synchrony is related to body-length similarity in a fish community under prolonged drought conditions

Interspecific synchrony and trait-based differences between species are likely to be related to each other. Therefore, we investigated interspecific synchrony patterns in a fish community under prolonged drought conditions, using a trait-based approach. We hypothesized that trait-similarity would predict interspecific synchrony among fish populations. We also expected that a general synchronous pattern for the whole community would be high during a severe drought context, indicating low stability. The study was conducted in a semi-arid reservoir between 2010 and 2017, which encompassed a five-year period of severe drought. We considered species differences in body length, gonadosomatic index, relative condition factor, and trophic level and found that interspecific synchrony was negatively related to species differences in body length. This result can be related to species requirements in terms of habitats and food resources. We also found a significant level of community-wide synchrony, with important implications for community stability during periods of prolonged drought. In conclusion, our results indicated a strong effect of environmental filtering in fish population dynamics over time. We highlight the importance of a trait-based approach to shed light on understanding ecological processes driving population dynamics.

Functional distance does not predict interspecific synchrony, but functional diversity directly affects community stability

Several studies attempt to understand the mechanisms underlying compensatory and synchronous dynamics, and how these mechanisms relate to community stability. For this purpose, the use of functional traits, in theory, would allow for a direct evaluation of whether functional similarity generates compensatory dynamics or interspecific synchrony. Likewise, a trait-based approach is also needed to evaluate the effect of functional biodiversity on community stability. Using phytoplankton data from the Cana Brava Reservoir (Goiás State, Brazil), we tested whether interspecific synchrony depends on functional distance and whether variability in total abundance depends on community synchrony and functional diversity. We did not find a significant relationship between interspecific synchrony and functional distance. However, we found a predominance of positive correlations between pairs of species and a strong negative relationship between functional diversity and community variability. Our results suggest that interspecific synchrony cannot be reliably predicted by functional distance. Given the predominance of positive synchrony, we indirectly infer that environmental variations similarly controlled the dynamics of most species. Our findings also highlight the stabilizing role of functional diversity.

A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association.

Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population‐density variables of co‐located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi‐species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community's constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co‐located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species’ densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co‐located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species’ population‐density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations.

Outbreaking forest insect drives phase synchrony among sympatric folivores: Exploring potential mechanisms

AbstractWe explore a common feature of insect population dynamics, interspecific synchrony, which refers to synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species. Such synchrony can arise via several possible mechanisms, including shared environmental effects and shared trophic interactions, but distinguishing the relative importance among different mechanisms can be challenging. We analyze interannual time series of population densities of the larch budmoth, Zeiraphera griseana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), along with six sympatric larch‐feeding folivores from a site in the European Alps 1952–1979. These species include five lepidopterans, Exapate duratella, Ptycholomoides aeriferana, Spilonota laricana, Epirrita autumnata and Teleiodes saltuum, and one hymenopteran sawfly Pristiphora laricis. We document that the highly regular oscillatory behavior (period 9–10 years) of Z. griseana populations is similarly evident in the dynamics of most of the sympatric folivores. We also find that all of the sympatric species are phase synchronized with Z. griseana populations with half of the sympatric species exhibiting nonlagged phase synchrony and three of the species exhibiting 2–5 year lags behind Z. griseana populations. We adapt a previously developed tritrophic model of Z. griseana dynamics to explore possible mechanisms responsible for observed phase synchronization. Results suggest that either shared stochastic influences (e.g., weather) or shared parasitoid impacts are likely causes of nonlagged phase synchronization. The model further indicates that observed patterns of lagged phase synchronization are most likely caused by either shared delayed induced host plant defenses or direct density‐dependent effects shared with Z. griseana.

Effects of nonnative species on the stability of riverine fish communities

Despite the increasing ubiquity of biological invasions worldwide, little is known about the scale‐dependent effects of nonnative species on real‐world ecological dynamics. Here, using an extensive time series dataset of riverine fish communities across different biogeographic regions of the world, we assessed the effects of nonnative species on the temporal variability and synchrony in abundance at different organizational levels (population, metapopulation, community and metacommunity) and spatial scales (stream reach and river basin). At the reach scale, we found that populations of nonnative species were more variable over time than native species, and that this effect scaled up to the community level – significantly destabilizing the dynamics of riverine fish communities. Nonnative species not only contributed to reduced community stability, but also increased variability of native populations. By contrast, we found no effect of nonnative species dominance on local interspecific synchrony among native species. At the basin scale, nonnative metapopulations were again more variable than the native ones. However, neither native metapopulations nor metacommunities showed differences in temporal variability or synchrony as nonnative species dominance increased basin‐wide. This suggests a ‘dilution effect’ where the contribution to regional stability of local native populations from sites displaying low levels of invasion reduced the destabilizing effects of nonnative species. Overall, our results indicate that accounting for the destabilizing effect of nonnative species is critical to understanding native species persistence and community stability.

Climatic Causes of Plant Flowering Time Displacement in the Central Forest Reserve

Meteorological series and phenological data in the framework of our environmental monitoring in the South taiga Central Forest Reserve were analyzed. During 1984– 2017, the average annual air temperature was 4.63±0.41°C, and the average annual rainfall was 2.14±0.12 mm/day. For eight of the 43 (19%) climatic parameters, reliable linear trends of variability were found: an increase of air temperature in July, August, September, and December; an increase of soil temperature in December; an increase of precipitation in November and December; and a decrease of precipitation in September. Three causes of their directed long-term changes were revealed, namely: a shift of the winter timing, violation of the annual dynamics of climatic parameters and a change in the precipitation type during a longer autumn – snow to be replaced by rain. Of the 11 species of vascular plants, the statistical significance of the long-term displacement of phenological dates was proven for Anemone nemorosa: the longer the autumn and softer the beginning of the winter, the earlier the onset of its flowering. Two classification types of vascular plants in identifying interspecific synchrony in the phenological events variation were considered. Variability components of phenological phenomena occurrence was estimated: the share of long-term trends of the shift in phenological dates timing due to changes in reserve climatic system is from 20 to 68% of the total sign dispersion; interannual climatic fluctuations explain 5–34% of its variability; and the proportion of variability under unaccounted factors influence is high (21–64%). Species with a high proportion of their long-term variability components (Anemone nemorosa: more than 60%) are recommended to use as indicators of climate change under the conditions of the study area.

Quantitative comparison of flowering phenology traits among trees, perennial herbs, and annuals in a temperate plant community.

PremiseFlowering phenology may differ among life forms due to the costs and benefits to attract pollinators, dependence on outcross pollination, and resource availability in their habitats. However, few studies have compared flowering phenology among life forms within a community and described flowering phenology at the individual, species, and community levels.MethodsWe recorded flowering events for individuals of insect‐pollinated trees, perennial herbs, and annuals from spring to summer of 2016 and 2017 in a warm‐temperate forest in Japan. To compare phenological variables including mean and variance of flowering length, we standardized the number of observed individuals for each species and tested differences in variables, considering the phylogenetic relationships among species.ResultsTotal flowering length in trees (9–50 d) was significantly shorter than perennial herbs (27–113 d) or annuals (22–89 d), but mean flowering length was not significantly different among them. Flowering length variance was significantly smaller and intraspecies synchrony significantly higher in trees than in perennial herbs and annuals. At the community level, flowering times largely overlapped among successively flowering species, but interspecies synchrony was positive for all life forms.ConclusionsShorter total flowering length and higher intraspecific synchrony in trees are explained by a modified pollinator attraction hypothesis suggesting that selection favors higher intraspecific synchrony because it promotes between‐individual movement of pollinators. At the community level, positive interspecific synchrony for all life forms supports the hypothesis that flowering times tend to converge among species.

Nonlinear time series analysis unravels underlying mechanisms of interspecific synchrony among foliage‐feeding forest Lepidoptera species

AbstractInterspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage‐feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free‐feeding and leaf‐roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free‐feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf‐rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S‐map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free‐feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free‐feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf‐roller guild.

Numerical response of a mammalian specialist predator to multiple prey dynamics in Mediterranean farmlands.

The study of rodent population cycles has greatly contributed, both theoretically and empirically, to our understanding of the circumstances under which predator-prey interactions destabilize populations. According to the specialist predator hypothesis, reciprocal interactions between voles and small predators that specialize on voles, such as weasels, can cause multiannual cycles. A fundamental feature of classical weasel-vole models is a long time-lag in the numerical response of the predator to variations in prey abundance: weasel abundance increases with that of voles and peaks approximately 1 yr later. We investigated the numerical response of the common weasel (Mustela nivalis) to fluctuating abundances of common voles (Microtus arvalis) in recently colonized agrosteppes of Castilla-y-Léon, northwestern Spain, at the southern limit of the species' range. Populations of both weasels and voles exhibited multiannual cycles with a 3-yr period. Weasels responded quickly and numerically to changes in common-vole abundance, with a time lag between prey and weasel abundance that did not exceed 4months and occurred during the breeding season, reflecting the quick conversion of prey into predator offspring and/or immigration to sites with high vole populations. We found no evidence of a sustained, high weasel abundance following vole abundance peaks. Weasel population growth rates showed spatial synchrony across study sites approximately 60km apart. Weasel dynamics were more synchronized with that of common voles than with other prey species (mice or shrews). However, asynchrony within, as well as among sites, in the abundance of voles and alternative prey suggests that weasel mobility could allow them to avoid starvation during low-vole phases, precluding the emergence of prolonged time lag in the numerical response to voles. Our observations are inconsistent with the specialist predator hypothesis as currently formulated, and suggest that weasels might follow rather than cause the vole cycles in northwestern Spain. The reliance of a specialized predator on a functional group of prey such as small rodents does not necessarily lead to a long delay in the numericalresponse by the predator, depending on the spatial and interspecific synchrony in prey dynamics.