Interregional Model Research Articles

Проблемы и перспективы развития межбюджетных отношений в городских агломерациях России

The development of urban agglomerations is an urgent direction of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of territorial development. The purpose of this article is to identify current problems in the sphere of budgetary interaction within urban agglomerations and to develop approaches to building an optimal system of inter-budget relations in different agglomeration models. Among them we can distinguish the traditional model (in which the core is an urban district, the satellite zone — municipalities located in the same subject of the Russian Federation), the interregional model (municipalities forming an agglomeration are located in several subjects of the Russian Federation) and the model of agglomeration formed around a city of federal significance. The result of the study is a set of proposals for building interrelated measures in the field of inter-budget relations aimed at creating conditions to stimulate agglomeration processes. The proposals include recommendations for certain amendments and additions to the current budgetary legislation in order to adapt the instruments of inter-budget regulation to the needs of territorial development.

Income Interdependence in the UK Multi-Regional Economy: A Meso-Level Analysis

Consumer expenditures in the United Kingdom account for over 50% of Gross Domestic Product on the expenditure side, yet their impact on economic activity is often overshadowed by attention to technological change, value chain analysis and especially international trade. In this paper, a recently developed interregional model of the UK economy, SEIM (Socio-Economic Impact Model) will be used to provide some parallel perspectives to the role of interregional trade in goods and services by focusing on the interregional structure and impact of income and expenditures by households. Drawing on the original contributions of Miyazawa (1976) to highlight the contribution and structure of income interdependence complemented by interpretations offered by average propagation length, field of influence, and feedback loop analyses. The findings reveal the nature and strength of asymmetries in the structure of income formation and their impacts across the multiregional system. While there is only modest variation in aggregate income propagation by region, the accumulation of income is dominated by regions in the London area and secondarily by other metropolitan areas providing a source of explanation for the sustained income inequalities that have characterized the UK economy for almost a century.

Scenario approach to the assessment of development prospects of the Russian regions

The article describes the features of building and assessment of spatial development scenarios in long-term forecasts. The author used the scenario approach for qualitative and quantitative assessment of alternative strategies for regional development within the framework of the macroeconomic forecast for the development of the Russian economy. Further, the author analyzed the experience of developing spatial scenarios for the EU countries and Russia. Next, the longterm regional trends are presented, which, due to the high inertia of space, will determine spatial development in the future. The author also describes modern problems that significantly impact the choice of strategies for the regions. Prospects for spatial development the author assessed in the framework of three forecast scenarios. For two options of the macroeconomic forecast, the author calculated quantitative estimates of the spatial development parameters characterizing the scenarios. Relevant calculations the author performed using macroeconomic and interregional forecasting and analytical models. Finally, the author showed the advantages of the scenario of balanced growth from the standpoint of implementing national goals of social and economic development.

Перераспределение первичных доходов населения как фактор снижения неравенства и ускорения экономического роста на региональном уровне

The existing income gaps significantly limit the regional and economic development. At the same time, the high economic growth potential due to the use of consumer demand necessitates the examination of the intensification of this factor of economic dynamics, including through the resource allocation policy. The article considers the macroeconomic efficiency of the redistribution of primary household incomes at the regional level. Regional distribution of the total income of the population by income quintile groups, as well as the average per capita income were analysed based on the data obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service. The redistribution of primary incomes through the differentiation of tax rates is considered the most important factor in increasing the dynamics of consumer demand (an increment of the personal income tax by 12 percentage points (up to 25 %) for the fifth quintile group is used in the calculations). The study aims to assess the possible impact of such redistribution on the income inequality and economic dynamics of Russia and its regions. The potential for gross regional product (GRP) growth resulting from an increase in social support for the least income groups was estimated using the methods of mathematical analysis, multisectoral and interregional modelling. The calculations show that an increase in consumer spending in 2019 in the economy as a whole could have amounted to +5.2 %; the estimate of the increase in total GRP was +2.7 %. Simultaneously, the ratio of the maximum and minimum regional per capita income decreased from 5 to 4 times, while the ratio of per capita GRP (excluding interregional price differentiation) decreased from 61.8 to 56.7 times (maximum/minimum level). The calculation results can be considered the first assessment of the possibilities of overcoming the limitations of regional development caused by low incomes and their significant differentiation. Future detailed studies should focus on developing comprehensive solutions in the field of economic policy.

Time-Varying Spatial Memory Model and Its Impact on Virus Spreading

The models of time-varying network have a profound impact on the study of virus spreading on the networks. On the basis of an activity-driven memory evolution model, a time-varying spatial memory model (TSM) is proposed. In the TSM model, the cumulative number of connections between nodes is recorded, and the spatiality of nodes is considered at the same time. Therefore, the active nodes tend to connect the nodes with high intimacy and close proximity. Then, the TSM model is applied to epidemic spreading, and the epidemic spreading on different models is compared. To verify the universality of the TSM model, this model is also applied to rumor spreading, and it is proved that it can also play a good inhibiting effect. We find that, in the TSM network, the introduction of spatiality and memory can slow down the propagation speed and narrow the propagation scope of disease or rumor, and memory is more important. We then explore the impact of different prevention and control methods on pandemic spreading to provide reference for COVID-19 management control and find when the activity of node is restricted, the spreading will be controlled. As floating population has been acknowledged as a key parameter that affects the situation of COVID-19 after work resumption, the factor of population mobility is introduced to calculate the interregional population interaction rate, and the time-varying interregional epidemic model is established. Finally, our results of infectious disease parameters based on daily cases are in good agreement with the real data, and the effectiveness of different control measures is evaluated.

An Approach to Economics-Environmental Relations from Expanding the Input-Output System

In the last few decades, the relationship between economy and environment has become the concern of many scholars, there have been many studies linking economic development and environmental pollution. Even the United Nations has introduced an economic-environmental linkage framework such as System of Environmental-Economics Accounts (SEEA) that is compatible with the System of National Accounts (SNA). This study attempts to provide a theoretical framework based on Miyazawa’s ideas on interregional model and demographic-economic model in order to improve the integration between economy and waste.

EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS HETEROGENEITY AND THE MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF HIGHER EDUCATION: EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

The present paper addresses the effectiveness of inter-regional and inter-governmental model of international cooperation in the field of higher education between European and Asian countries from the perspective of European educational system homogeneity. The critical argument pursued in the paper asserts that intra-regional homogeneity is key prerequisite for the inter-regional model of cooperation. By applying clustering algorithm, we prove that European countries feature four distinct educational systems, thus demonstrating a high degree of dissimilarity regarding educational system design. Consequently, we suggest that integration in the field of higher education between the European and Asian countries should take place between economies constituting these regions, not between the regional blocks.

Providing Banking Branches in Russian Regions: Assessment of the Role of Distance and Other Factors

Over the past two decades, there has been a decrease in the number of banks in Russia, both as a result of concentration and consolidation processes in the global banking industry and of the banking sector rehabilitation policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. As a result, banking activities in the country are now carried out mainly by banks with headquarters in the capital. The article discusses the consequences of such geographic centralization of the Russian banking sector in terms of providing regions with a sufficient number of bank branches. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of distance on banks’ ability to maintain their presence in regions, as well as to identify differences in this regard between different categories of banks, including the composition of owners, location of the head office, and size of the bank. The impact of distances on the number of bank offices in regions at the end of 2018, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, is assessed using the Poisson regression method for interregional trade gravity models. The results showed that the largest banks in their office location strategy are guided by the characteristics of locales, regardless of distance from the bank’s head office. At the same time, the composition of a bank’s owners has little effect, although in fact, financial accessibility and inclusion in the country are to a large extent provided by the largest state-owned banks. The office location strategy is also linked to the location of the bank’s head office in the capital. The remaining regional banks are more likely to operate locally; for them the distance factor in the formation of a branch network is important. Despite banking licensing reform in 2018, the number of banks continues to decline and the level of competition and diversity in this sphere in Russian regions is still debatable.

Нюансы теории и практики евразийской интеграционной идеи

The processes of Eurasian economic integration development have not been effective as expected. One of the factors creating contradictions and certain imbalance of interests between the member states of the Eurasian economic community is the increasing prevalence of political aspects over the economic ones, which was clearly manifested in the EAEU development strategy until 2025. In the author’s opinion, the reason lies in a lack of forecasting and analytical tools efficiency by which decisions are taken in supranational bodies of the association. It seems appropriate to develop a set of tools based on the complex of models taken from optimizing cross-sectoral interregional model (OCIM) developed in the 1960s in the Institute of economics and industrial engineering (Novosibirsk). This model is widely used nowadays, as it allows to increase the level of scientific foundation in the decision-making for the further development of Eurasian integration.

MODEL FOR FORMING THE INTERREGIONAL CLUSTER OF THE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

The relevance of the research is due to the necessity of improving Russia's environmental and economic policy at the present stage and ensuring sustainable environmental and economic development of the Russian economy. One of the main strategic priorities of the latter is the development of alternative energy, which will contribute to higher energy and environmental efficiency as well as to easing the load on the environment. It will also involve optimization of the structure of the country's balance of energy owing to reducing its dependence on the export of organic fuels and to ensuring innovation development of the energy industry for the long term. With regard to this, the paper is aimed at finding the most efficient way for solving the said problem; as one, it is shaping the interregional cluster of alternative energy that is suggested by the authors. The leading approach to studying this problem is the systemic approach enabling an integrated view of the diverse elements (alternative energy, cluster approach, interregional interaction) that used to be considered individually. In the paper, the necessity of developing alternative energy is justified as one of the focus areas for ensuring Russia's sustainable environmental and economic development which requires the relevant material, labor and financial resources, technologies and equipment. In order to generate these, it is suggested to form the interregional cluster of alternative energy based on one of the four presented interregional interaction models, namely, the multilateral cross-sectoral model which is going to incorporate mutually associated sectors of the economy (producer sectors, supplier sectors, and consumer sectors) located in several regions and aimed at solving the shared problems. The materials of the paper are of practical value for the state and municipal authorities of Russia in terms of improving the policy implemented by them within sustainable development. Moreover, the results of the paper can be taken into account in forming an entire range of regulatory instruments and social and economic development programs for Russia in general and its regions in particular.

ЛЕСНОЙ КОМПЛЕКС: ПРОГНОЗЫ И СТРАТЕГИИ

The authors analyze the information base of the elaborated forecasts and strategies for the timber complex development from the viewpoint of the territorial differentiation in resources and infrastructure availability. The structure of the harvested timber is aligned with the volume and quality characteristics of the wood assortments needed for production of the forecasted types of the final forest product. It is confirmed that the volume of the small-scale wood substance and waste products formed under clean cutting and also under production of board lumber and plywood, cannot be completely utilized within the production of slab materials and pellets. And in the eastern regions when the benefits for transportation to the European countries are cancelled it is unprofitable to process them. The article also gives estimation of the inner market forecast for the main types of forest products which has been attained with the calculations on the base of the inter-regional model , in comparison with the hypothesis built-in the Strategies of the timber complex development. The analysis is given for the main reasons of not fulfilling the tasks which have been put forward under developing the Strategies connected with the changes of the institutional and economic conditions of the timber complex functioning. Also, inflated expectations for the wooden house constructions are noted in the article.

Modeling the Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Interregional Freight-Transportation System

The wellbeing of a nation is conditioned on an optimal distribution of commodity-flow. The freight transportation system, however, is exposed, and highly vulnerable, to climatic hazards. This becomes more problematic in the long term when climate change is projected to continue or worsen. Studying the long-term climate vulnerability of interregional commodity shipment is a challenging task given complexities inherent in ( a) the dynamic formulation of factors such as location, production, the interaction of regional economies, and commodity distribution patterns, and ( b) the stochastic arrival and intensity of natural hazards. This article studies the impact of projected climatic extremes in the State of New York on long-term interregional commodity-flow. It investigates the nature of and extent to which vulnerabilities in transportation infrastructure may cause sudden and profound changes in the routing assignment and cost of commodity-flows. We approximate commodity-flow assignment through a dynamic, long-term estimation of an interregional commodity-flow model reflecting the choices of households, market places, and firm locations and strategies. In the research here reported, we also utilized explicit treatment of trade in intermediate goods, the so-called new economic geography providing the behavioral foundation for production and interindustry and interregional trade, and an endogenous determination of capital investment and employment. The results show how and to what extent the (partial-)connectedness of New York State’s freight-transportation network in time of disaster ( a) causes an unmet demand for commodities across the nation’s regional economies and ( b) increases the shipment cost and effective-delivered price of commodity-flows.

Interregional Fertility Differentials and Agglomeration

In this study, we construct an interregional trade model that includes endogenous fertility rates. The presented model shows that the agglomeration of manufacturing firms in a large region causes fertility rates to become lower than in a small region. We also find that a decrease in transportation costs results in the agglomeration of manufacturing firms, which lowers fertility rates in both large and small regions. In addition, comparing the competitive equilibrium with the optimal equilibrium, the fertility rates may be inefficiently small.

An Inter-regional US Blood Supply Simulation Model to Evaluate Blood Availability to Support Planning for Emergency Preparedness and Medical Countermeasures.

Planning for a response to threats like pandemics or mass casualty events is a national priority. The US blood supply system can be particularly vulnerable to such events. It is important to understand the impacts of emergency situations on blood availability and the resiliency of the US blood supply system. On the basis of the Stock-and-Flow simulation model of the US blood supply system, we developed an inter-regional blood transfer system representing the action of multiple blood collectors and distributors to enable effective planning of strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions to the blood supply system in the event of a national emergency. We simulated a pandemic or mass casualty event on both a national and an inter-regional blood supply system. Differences in the estimated impacts demonstrated the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variations of blood collection and utilization across US regions. The absence of blood shortage in both emergency scenarios highlighted the resilience of the inter-regional system to meet the potential associated blood demand. Our inter-regional model considered complex factors and can be a valuable tool to assist regulatory decision-making and strategic planning for emergency preparedness to avoid and mitigate associated adverse health consequences. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:201-210).

QUANTO VALE A ÁGUA QUE USAMOS? PROJEÇÕES DOS IMPACTOS ECONÔMICOS DE RESTRIÇÕES AO USO E ELEVAÇÃO DE PREÇOS DA ÁGUA NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE BELO HORIZONTE

O problema da escassez de água no Brasil tem se intensificado nos últimos anos. Não diferente está a situação da região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte (RMBH) que presenciou a mais severa escassez hídrica de sua história em 2015. Este estudo estima o impacto econômico de restrições na oferta de água utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável inter-regional para os municípios da RMBH.Busca-se compreender a importância da água como insumo produtivo e no consumo das famílias, e como a limitação de seu uso afeta as decisões econômicas dos setores e das famílias. Os resultados indicam que para um corte de 1% no consumo total de água na RMBH seria necessária uma elevação média de tarifas de 7,3%. O efeito total sobre o uso de água mostra-se bastante inelástico, uma vez que a redução de consumo é 1/7 da elevação dos preços.

Accessibility, transportation cost, and regional growth: a case study for Egypt

This paper focuses on a proposed development corridor in Egypt, a main component of which is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. The main beneficial features of this proposed transport investment are travel time reductions and improved accessibility. We use a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model to estimate the economic impacts of changes in transportation costs from this new roadway. To effect this, we integrate the model with a stylized geo-coded transportation network to estimate the spatial distribution of changes in transportation costs. Ignoring the cost of the infrastructure itself, we employ a series of simulations to estimate the likely structural economic impacts that such a large investment in transportation could enable through a series of simulations. Results show the Corridor causes the economic tide to rise for the economies of all Egyptian governorates. Gains in efficiency are particularly strong for those regions that are presently most isolated, namely those located to the southern and western extremes of the country. This suggests that the project will lessen regional disparities across Egypt’s governorates. We therefore show that integrated SCGE models can be useful in estimating the potential economic benefits of transportation projects in developing nations like Egypt. Moreover, it is clear that interregional economic models can be vital in examining the varied spatial distribution of the benefits that derive from geographically targeted government spending.

Livestock intensification as a climate policy: Lessons from the Brazilian case

Brazil is trying to identify ways to ally economic growth with climate change mitigation. Productivity gains in livestock have been pointed out as a promising alternative to achieve that goal. Thus, this paper analyses the economic impacts of a policy of productivity gains in the Brazilian livestock. Besides, we evaluate if the policy may conciliate agricultural growth and deforestation control, bearing in mind the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use changes. The analysis was carried out through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, tailored to represent land-use changes, GHG emissions and removals. Besides, it made progress modeling the heterogeneity of climate, soils, and emissions in inter-regional models with many regions. The results show that productivity gains can effectively “save” land and thus avoid deforestation, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado (savannah) biomes. The policy also may boost the economic growth, spreading it to other regions of Brazil, like Centre-West and North, and increasing income and consumption in those places. However, as a climate policy, focused on the reduction of GHG emissions, the results may be counterproductive. The net amount issued may increase, as a result of the positive stimulus of the policy on the economy, and GHG emissions are directly related to the economic growth.

Regions that matter: the Arab–South American interregional space

This article critiques interregionalism as a concept that is trapped in the European Union (EU) foreign policy toolkit narrative, which in turn structures what can be said meaningfully and legitimately about interregionalism. Drawing on the experience of the Arab–South American (ASPA) Summit, it shows that, when speaking on interregionalism in International Relations (IR), one need not be speaking about the EU interregional model, which is understood as a vertical relationship established between the EU and an objectified regional partner of its choice. Rather, a broader definition for interregionalism is proposed, one that builds up from the basic ‘region-to-region’ dialogue–arrangement–cooperation and interrogates the meaning it has for those who engage in this practice. This was made possible by the construction of a framework for the analysis of the practices that lead to the materialisation of the ASPA interregional discourse and that reveal how this form of interregionalism in the Global South ‘matters’ in IR.

Evaluation of Interregional Freight Generation Modelling Methods by using Nationwide Commodity Flow Survey Data

A trip generation model is one of the four parts of the classical transport planning model, which explores the volume of trip or freight at the originating and destination points of a traffic analysis zone. The process of calibrating a trip generation model needs appropriate data. Freight transport data are always robust and a powerful calibration technique is required to handle the robustness of such data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the performance of the freight generation model, calibrated by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), against the conventional linear regression model. The 2012 Thailand commodity flow survey data from National Statistics Organization of Thailand were used for calibration. Interprovincial freight shipment data, across the kingdom of Thailand (77 origins and 77 destinations), were divided into four categories-agricultural products, industrial products, consumer products and construction material. The results indicated that the regression based model failed to accord with the regression assumption, while ANN can also provide the same performance in explaining the relationship between dependent and independent variables. ANN is considered to be a better calibration technique as the concerned data do not accord with regression assumption.

The Bear in the Grave: Exploitation of Top Predator and Herbivore Resources in First Millennium Sweden—First Trends from a Long-Term Research Project

This paper focusses on animal remains associated with archaeological contexts dated to the middle and later phases of the Scandinavian Iron Age, which corresponds to the first millennium AD. The main question to be addressed is whether this record can be used for identifying human impact on certain animal populations for modelling faunal exploitation and interregional trade. In the first part of the paper, we undertake a detailed inventory of animal finds recorded in published excavation reports, research catalogues, and in existing databases maintained primarily by the Historical Museum in Stockholm. We compare the chronological pattern identified in the burial assemblages with a chronological sequence retrieved from pitfall hunting systems located in the Scandinavian inland region. The chronologies of the animal finds from burials and the pitfall systems are then compared with dated pollen-analytical sequences retrieved in the inland region and additional archaeological assemblages, such as graves and hoards of Roman coins. In our discussion, we outline an interregional model of faunal exploitation between AD 300 and 1200, including the possible location of hunting grounds and end-distribution areas for animal products. The paper provides deeper insights into the burial record of the middle Iron Age, arguing for the need for broader interregional approaches, and focussed archaeological research in the inland regions of Scandinavia.