Interregional Migration Research Articles

Evidence of self-selection and spatial mismatch in interregional migration: the case of Italy

Abstract Selective migration does not necessarily imply a unique unidirectional or ‘synchronized’ flow from the poorer to the richer regions. Indeed, migration is selective to individual characteristics of migrants, but also places. Therefore, it is likely that migrants with different skill levels, age, and gender select different destinations—irrespective of regional disparities—with a greater degree of synchronization by similar individuals. The article explores these processes in Italy using inter-provincial migration flows (NUTS3) data for the years 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2005 and dividing migrants into 18 categories based on their human capital (proxied by education), age, and gender. Findings confirm the hypothesis of selective migration flows with clear-cut differences in choosing locations according to individual characteristics.

Modeling approaches and tools of the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the territories

Introduction of sanctions restrictions, curtailment of international relations that caused significant reduction of volume of foreign trade turnover and the intensity of interaction between the world countries in technological and financial area, is continuing to have a significant impact on the economic development of the Russian Federation. One of the topical tasks within the general issues of improving strategic planning mechanisms is extending the opportunities for application of the existing methods and tools for identifying the degree of interrelationship between the economic development of the territorial entities and dynamics of the migration process including the perspective of the further creation of forecast scenarios for changes in the migration attractiveness of the entities of the Russian Federation. An effective tool for solving this problem is development and implementation of various economic and mathematical models that provide the opportunity for identifying the key factors affecting the migration activity of the population, carrying out scenario forecasting to evaluate the effect of various measures of government regulation on the dynamics of social and economic development of the territories in the medium- and long-term perspectives. The study in hand involves comparative assessment of well-known approaches and tools used for imitative modelling of economic and demographic development of territorial systems with different level. The authors have conducted the analysis that made it possible to reveal the opportunities and the limits of their practical implementation within the task of evaluating the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the territories. Taking into account the results of assessment, the authors formulate basic principles and requirements for establishing an appropriate set of modelling tools. They justify the approach to studying the mutual influence of the migration activity of the population and economic development of the region based on the complex application of imitation modelling methods, indistinct logic, parameter analysis as well as geographical information technologies. Complex application of these methods will provide for the development of mechanisms of regulating interregional migration and allow establishing the measures for ensuring sustainable development of the economics of the regions of the Russian Federation in the long-term perspective.

Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration.

Japan has been facing a population decline since 2010 due to low birth rates, interregional migration, and regional traits. In this study, we modeled the demographic dynamics of Japan using a transition matrix model. Then, from the mathematical structure of the model, we quantitatively evaluated the domestic factors of population decline. To achieve this, we constructed a multi-regional Leslie matrix model and developed a method for representing the reproductive value and stable age distribution using matrix entries. Our method enabled us to interpret the mathematical indices using the genealogies of the migration history of individuals and their ancestors. Furthermore, by combining our method with sensitivity analysis, we analyzed the effect of region-specific fertility rates and interregional migration rates on the population decline in Japan. We found that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to the migration rate from urban areas with large populations to prefectures with high fertility rates was greatest for people aged under 30. In addition, compared to other areas, the fertility rates of urban areas exhibited higher sensitivity for people aged over 30. Because this feature is robust in comparison with those in 2010 and 2015, it can be said to be a unique structure in Japan in recent years. We also established a method to represent the reproductive value and stable age distribution in an irreducible non-negative matrix population model by using the matrix entries. Furthermore, we show the effects of fertility and migration rates numerically in urban and non-urban areas on the population growth rates for each age group in a society with a declining population.

POPULATION MIGRATION AS A MECHANISM FOR FORMING INTEGRATED SOCIO-ECONOMIC SPACE

This article is devoted to the analysis of permanent and temporary migrations of the Altai Region population in the context of the socio-economic space integration. Intraregional, interregional and international migration links were described; factors and mechanisms that determine their scale, intensity and effectiveness were identified; specificity of the influence of the various migration types on the development of integration processes in the socio-economic space was shown. In the field of population exchange with other regions of Russia, the region acts as a donor, which limits its demographic potential both for its own development and for the development of integration processes in other areas. International migrations were characterized by the expansion of the migration interactions space, the complexity of its structure and the positive migration balance with neighboring countries throughout the study period. Intra-regional migrations were characterized by the concentration of the population in large cities and surrounding rural areas. As a result, there was a fragmentation of the internal socioeconomic space. Within the dynamics of the analyzed interactions, four stages were distinguished, two of which (1990-1994s and 2010-2013s) were characterized by an increase in migration ties, and the other two (1995-2009s and 2014-2020s) by their weakening. The conclusion about the expanding space of interregional migration interactions and especially significant role of Siberian regions in this process was made.

Do Internal Migration Experiences Facilitate Migration Intentions and Behavior?

Growing evidence suggests that internal migration experience shapes future internal migration behavior. However, it remains unclear what stage of the decision-making process past internal migration facilitates and whether the impact depends on the distance moved. To advance understanding of the role of past migration, we explicitly and dynamically link migration experiences to the formation and realization of future internal migration intentions by blending the aspiration-ability framework with the learned behavior hypothesis. We empirically test our proposition by fitting a series of logistic regression models to longitudinal microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, which has been conducted annually since 2001. We use a two-step approach by first modeling internal migration intentions and then modeling the realization of these intentions, distinguishing between residential moves, onward interregional migration, and return interregional migration. We find that migration experience is positively associated with both the formation and realization of migration intentions and that the effect of past migration increases with the distance moved and the number of past migrations. These findings suggest that migration experiences accumulate over the life course to predispose individuals toward subsequent migration. Finally, we show that the effect of past migration is not the result of a lack of social capital among repeat migrants-a finding that reinforces the importance of conceptualizing internal migration as a life course trajectory rather than a series of discrete events.

Impacts of transient and permanent environmental shocks on internal migration

ABSTRACT We examined whether floods and cyclones, the shocks that are transient in nature, affect interregional migration differently compared to riverbank erosion that causes loss of lands and thus generates permanent shocks. We tracked Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000 participants in nine coastal districts of Bangladesh and collected further information in 2015. Our analyses suggest that both transient and permanent shocks induce households to migrate, but the effect is higher for the latter category. Using a difference-in-differences setting, we find that migrants’ income and expenditure increase relative to their counterparts, indicating that facilitating migration may improve welfare in disaster-prone countries.

Understanding the COVID Economic Crisis: A Short- Run General Equilibrium Framework

The article develops a static general equilibrium framework, in terms of which effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on output and employment of different sectors are analysed for a country like India where there are many regions, interregional migration and a large informal sector. In particular, three pandemic-induced shocks, namely, stoppage of interregional migration, supply bottlenecks and demand shrinkages are considered in a short-run set-up where prices and wages are rigid. It is shown that supply shocks in one region or sector generates binding demand constraints in others. Monetary transfer by the government increases employment and output. JEL Classifications: D5, E2

The people of the Arctic in the space of Russia: interdisciplinary approaches to the translocal communities

Thе paper is based on the results of the “Arctic connections: people and infrastructures” project (2018–2021) which was aimed at interdisciplinary study of modern population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The paper is focused on the study of social support networks and their spatial distribution. We combine socio-anthropological (qualitative) and economic-geographical (quantitative) methods of research and analysis; the field data obtained as the result of in-depth interviews and observation of the participants were corroborated by rigor-ous quantitative analysis of available demographic data. For the anthropological analysis we use the prism of translocality and transnationalism, which enable an understanding of the structure of lives of people who do not reside in only one place but are connected by many ties and relationships to a whole range of localities. The fami-ly life of the northerners is often distributed between several localities, scattered across the whole country, and sometimes beyond its borders. The location of these ‘bases’ depends primarily on the configuration of each fam-ily’s social networks. We call this ‘a distributed way of life’. The quantitative analysis was carried out using the methodology of calculating the Migration Indices of Proportionality of (spatial) Structure (MIPS) of departures and arrivals of the migrants, proposed by O.L. Rybakovsky. The geographical scope of the study is the entire Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as the regions most connected with the Arctic by migration ties (the southern part of the Tyumen region, Kurgan, Kaliningrad, Belgorod, Kirov Regions, etc.). The results of the study revealed close interregional migration ties between the groups of regions that are significantly spatially separated from each other: 1) between the majority of the regions of the Far North, on one hand, and Kaliningrad and Bel-gorod Regions on the other; 2) between Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and the Republics of Dagestan and Bashkortostan; 3) between Yamalo-Nenets Okrug and the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Omsk and Kurgan regions, as well as the south of the Tyumen Region; 4) between Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Kirov Region. The qualitative studies have shown how the migration flows in these areas increase due to established social ties, which in some cases are sustained already for several generations. In the paper, the importance of the influence of interregional social ties, both for the Arctic and for the country in general, is demonstrated. The authors demon-strate how these connections between the “northern” and “non-northern” regions, which are separated by about a 1000 km distance, lead to such close relations which are more characteristic of relationships between a popula-tion center and its nearest periphery. This ultra-distant social proximity is a vivid manifestation of the specifics of the Russian North and Arctic.

Russian Regions in Interregional Labor Migration: Level of Participation, Causes and Factors

The article analyzes statistical and sociological data on the level of participation of the subjects of the Russian Federation in interregional labor migration, its causes and factors. In the first part of the article, based on data from the Rosstat labor force survey for more than a decade (from 2011 to 2021), regional features are identified. It is shown that not all regions fit into the all-Russian trend, which is characterized by progressive growth until 2018 (with the exception of 2014); a decline in 2019, 2020 and a certain growth in 2021, which did not reach the level of 2018. The dynamics of the indicators of the last two years have been strongly influenced by the situation with the coronavirus pandemic. At the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the participation of the employed population in interregional labor migration is unstable and differentiated. In most regions, approximately every two to four years, periods of growth in the number of temporary labor migrants are replaced by their decline. About a third of the regions have high (more than 10%) and average (from 5 to 10%) levels of participation of the employed population in interregional labor migration. From these regions, the majority of all temporary labor migrants – about 70% - leave for other subjects of the Russian Federation. In the second part of the article, the author analyzes the data of sociological studies conducted in the Republic of Bashkortostan in 2018, 2019. Bashkortostan belongs to the regions with a relatively stable upward dynamics of population participation in interregional labor migration and leads (after the Moscow and Leningrad regions) in the absolute number of interregional labor migrants. According to sociological data, the highest level of participation in temporary labor migration of rural residents. Based on the methodology proposed by L.L. The author identifies the factors and causes of interregional labor migration. The first include the state of the labor market, employment; income level; the level and quality of life of the population; the second – lack of jobs, low wages, limited opportunities to meet the needs in the field of social development. Employment and income, according to the author, are the key factors of temporary labor migration, which is indirectly confirmed by the results of other studies in the Republic of Bashkortostan, according to which shift migrants have a high level of dissatisfaction with these areas of life. These problems are most acute in rural areas, which causes a relatively high level of participation in temporary labor migration of rural residents.

Which Matters More for Migration: Evidence from Russian Regions’ Data

Many researchers of migration in Russia note deficiency of the works directed on modeling of migratory processes taking place in the country. This article is devoted to an assessment of impact power of socio-economic factors on interregional migration in Russia and to its comparison to recently found influence on this process of psychological characteristics of the accepting region population. As the aggregated at regional level estimates of intelligence, personal traits and characteristics of response style were calculated on the basis of results of online testing over 200 thousand respondents in 2012–19, indicators of socio-economic development of regions (n=16) are computed by averaging for the same time interval; the source of data - the Russian Federal Service of State Statistics (reference yearbooks “Regions of Russia” and the Uniform Interagency Information and Statistical System). In the analysis data of 78 subjects of the Russian Federation are included, but after association of capital agglomerations the number of regions was reduced to 76. It is established that the majority of the socio-economic indexes included in the analysis shows significant correlations with regional net migration coefficients. In general, the revealed pattern of correlations is agreed with results of other authors received on data of earlier periods of the analysis. Regression of net migration coefficients on socio-economic variables allowed calculating series of linear multifactor models. Best of these models accounted for about 44 % of a dependent variable variance. Earlier it was shown that the models calculated on the basis of limited number of aggregated psychological characteristics of the accepting region have the same level of accuracy. Moreover, addition of psychological variables to the best models based on socio-economic indexes provides essential increase of accuracy of prediction of regional net migration: the share of variance accounted for increases from 44 to 55–57 %. It is supposed that taking into account of psychological variables of the accepting region will create premises for more effective management of migratory processes.

Evolution of Migration Interaction of the Kirov Region with the Soviet and Post- Soviet Baltics

For a long period of time, the Kirov oblast acts as a donor region in internal migration. The aim of the work is the analysis of migrations from the Kirov region to Baltic in 1946–2020. It is relevant to consider the migration interaction of the two territories with the involvement of an inseparable array of archival data over a long period of time. The work provides a review of data sources on internal interregional migration in the period after the end of World War II to the present. The conclusion is drawn on the incomparability in time of the indicators of the volumes of relocation and the need to use additional tools for a retrospective analysis of inter-regional migration ties. For this purpose, it is proposed to calculate the coefficients of the intensity of migration ties and the coefficients of the effectiveness of migration exchange. Based on the current accounting data, a periodization of population migration is proposed, for each period the intensity and effectiveness of migration ties of the Kirov region with St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the Kaliningrad region, as well as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia during their entry into the USSR are determined. Analysis of interregional migration in 1989–2015 supplemented by census and microcensus data. The most intensively and effectively for the Baltic regions the resettlement was carried out in the period after the end of the war until the end of the 1980s. Subsequently, the intensity of departures from the Kirov region and the proportion of natives in the population of the Baltic regions decreased. Migration ties with the Kaliningrad region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region were more intense than with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, even during their entry into the USSR.

Interregional migration of human capital in Spain

ABSTRACT While levels of internal mobility have been trending down in many advanced economies, the interregional migration rates of Spanish young adults have increased. This paper analyses the internal movements of the Spanish-born population aged 25–39 between NUTS-2 regions from 1992 to 2018, including sub-periods linked to the Spanish economic context. The analysis incorporates the urban–rural dimension within each region and the educational level of migrants, a variable that has not been included in Spanish internal migration studies. We used flow register data of migration and sociodemographic information from the Labor Force Survey. The results show that migrations between regions have become more unbalanced over time, especially since the 2008 crisis. In addition, a new trend of out-migration from cities in peripheral regions has been detected, which contrasts with the former high level of rural out-migration. A great educational selectivity of out-migrants and a growing internal brain drain have also been found. Moreover, qualified human capital accumulation has been increasing in Madrid.

How do initial migrants choose their locations? Interregional migration in Japan from 1899 to 1938

AbstractWhat regional factors determine the size of the immigrant population in a region? Previous studies have identified the immigrant network in a region as a main determinant of immigrants' location choices. However, these studies have not answered the question of how the first groups of immigrants decided where to live in the absence of pre‐existing networks in the destination country. Using Japanese historical data from 1899 to 1938, I test how jobs, quality of life, and gateway areas attracted immigrants to settle. The results of the analysis with regional panel data show that higher income, more employment opportunities in transportation industries, and sunshine increase the size of the immigrant population in a region. Economic opportunities in other growing industries (i.e., silk and cotton industries and commercial sectors) are rather deterrents for immigrants. I discuss the reasons for these findings and the implications for future studies.

Migration in the Demographic Development of the Russian Far East

The analysis of migration processes in the Russian Far East in 2018–2020 (within the new administrative boundaries, taking into account the Republic of Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Region) is shown. The current trends in migration partnership within the framework of intraregional, interregional, and external migration (with the CIS and non-CIS countries) are analyzed. The role of migration in the dynamics of the population of each region of the Russian Far East is shown. The author explains that the Russian Far East found itself in a situation of demographic instability, in conditions of a stable decrease in its population, mainly due to migration outflow. Migration has become a long-term factor in the decrease in the population of the Russian Far East. While in conditions of natural population decline; it could become a source of growth in the population of the macroregion. The analysis of the migration motivation of the population made it possible to formulate some proposals, the implementation of which, under certain conditions, can contribute to attracting and saving the population to the Russian Far East. The author shows that with the existing trends in the demographic development of the Russian Far East, it is necessary to prepare for the transition to a macroregion’s economy corresponding to a lower population level. In general, in order to attract the population, it is necessary to create conditions for the economic development of the Russian Far East, generating an increase in real per capita income, exceeding the values of income in other more successful Russian regions.

Interregional Migration: Who Decides to Move?

Abstract The functionality of a region depends on its people. Yet for some regions within Australia, attracting and retaining varied skilled people continues to be a challenge. What influences people to want to stay, move away from or move into a region? Before we can answer this question, we firstly need to understand ‘who’ is making this decision. Much of past research assumes the decision is made at the individual head of household level or must assume the decision is made at the individual as opposed to the household level as a result of data availability. This paper highlights the limitations of making such an assumption and offers an alternative method transforming secondary microdata to reflect the collective household unit as the decision making unit. We find that our migration models are statistically robust with results consistent with conventional studies that show smaller, younger households are more mobile. Most importantly, however, we find evidence that our proxies which represent characteristics of the collective unit, termed “Decision Making Unit”, are also statistically significant. Thus, justifying the need for migration models to reflect the collective unit and not just the individual, should we seek to better understand motives. JEL classification numbers: J61, R23, R58 Keywords: interregional migration, migration, decision-making, households, regions

Forecasting interregional youth migration flows

Subject. This article deals with the issues of youth migration, reproduction processes and the potential for the future socio-economic development of areas. Objectives. The article aims to develop a cellular automata model for the medium-term prediction of inter-regional youth migration flows of the 15–19 age cohort. Methods. For the study, we used a statistical analysis and the cellular automata theory. Results. The article presents a probabilistic cellular automata model with rectangular grids of cells without borders, where the number of cells coincides with the 15–19 age cohort number in the respective area. The article also proposes an author-developed cross-platform program in the Go programming language that helps make medium-term forecasts. Conclusions. The cellular automata allow for integrating various patterns of migratory behavior into a general model of area migration flow, and choosing the most adequate patterns of migratory behavior for various age and social groups of migrants.

LANGUAGE NO BAR IN HINDI SOAP OPERA- A STUDY

Television is the important source of information education and entertainment in Indian society. This reflects social reality in real time. Some stereotypes of society have also been showed by Indian television. It can be seen that use of regional languages in Hindi serials are increasing day by day and there is no language bar in Hindi TV serials. Inter regional migration the reason behind this phenomenon. Rapid increase of this language glued more people to TV sets. In the COVID crisis when people are forced to sit at home they have nothing to do and most importantly they don’t go outside they had only one option in the context of Info edutainment and it was Television. This also increased the viewership of Hindi serials. Current study is about to find out the actual reason to use this language and situation would have also seen in which particular verbatim and satires are going to be used. This research paper also study the content of Hindi soap opera in which rapidly accelerating linguistic change has been noted. This research paper is based on a comparative study and content analysis study between top three Hindi serial according to TRP to show the regional language used and is that language the reason to reach top. KEYWORDS: Regional Language, Satires, Situation, Verbatim, linguistic change, content

The Complex Systems for Conflict Interaction Modelling to Describe a Non-Trivial Epidemiological Situation

This study investigates a complex system that describes a non-trivial epidemiological model with integrated internal conflict (interregional migration) on the example of cyclic migration using the software. JetBrains PyCharm Community Edition 2020.3.3, a free and open-source integrated development environment (IDE) in the Python programming language, was chosen as the software development tool. The Matplotlib 3.5 library was used to display the modelling results graphically. The integration of internal conflict into the model revealed significant and notable changes in its behavior. This study’s results prove that not only the characteristics of the interaction factors but also the size of the values determine the direction of migration concerning relation to competitors.

Assessment and forecasting of the russian regions attractiveness as a factor of Interregional migration

Nowadays, one of the most important tasks of the state in the framework of ensuring sustainable socio-economic and demographic development of the country is the regulation of migration processes. The changes observed in a complex political situation, including the impact of sanctions and pandemics, have affected on the priorities transformation of the population when choosing a potential place of residence. In this regard, it is important and timely to identify trends and factors of population migration, as well as to assess the level of migration activity using modern economic and mathematical methods of analysis. These issues are most relevant for those regions where there is a migration outflow of the population. In order to identify the factors influencing a human behavior when making a decision to change their place of residence, a component analysis was conducted on 22 indicators of socio-economic development of 67 subjects of Russia. This process identifed fve main components. The obtained results formed the basis for assessing the level of attractiveness of the territories and further cluster analysis of the regions. This caused to the formation of four clusters, including the subjects of the Russian Federation with a similar level of socio-economic development. Combining the results of the multi-factor assessment made it possible to determine the complex level of socio-economic development for each region. At the next stage of the study, the identified relationships between the socio-economic development of the regions and the migration level were formalized using the methods of regression analysis. The obtained simulation results let the authors develop a forecast of the migration processes dynamics, taking into account the implementation of the inertial and optimistic scenarios for the development of the socioeconomic situation.

The effect of labor‐market differentials on interregional migration in Spain: A meta‐regression analysis

AbstractThis paper performs a meta‐regression analysis to derive the role of techniques, data and variable's definition on the effect of the labor‐market determinants on interregional migration. We use Spain as a case of study, a country with heterogeneous and even counterintuitive behavior of internal migration flows to its labor‐market drivers. We use data from studies released over the last 40 years. The results show that migration flows respond to labor‐market differentials in a theoretically consistent way. We find that the vast diversity in the studies’ attributes is behind the significant heterogeneity of their estimated effects. Differences in aggregation level, variables measures, model specification, and the national economic context influence the identification of the push and pull effects.