International Rice Prices Research Articles

Determinants and Competitiveness of Rice Export in Tanzania: A Vector Error Correction Model

The rice export industry in Tanzania is seemingly performing poorly despite the country being the leading rice producer amongst the East African Community (EAC) member states. The extensive government interventions which have occurred in the industry and the existence of inward-looking trade policies such as the Common External Tariff within EAC would have resulted in increased rice exports especially, through the intra-regional trade, however this has remained more of an oratorical rather than practical attainment the reasons for which are not known with certainty. This paper is an attempt to fill this knowledge gap. The paper investigates the determinants of rice exports in Tanzania. Specifically, it examines the influence of price and non-price factors on rice exports and assesses the competitiveness of Tanzanian rice in the EAC export market. The paper uses secondary data obtained from government institutions and other international data repositories. The Vector Error Correction Model is used to capture the dynamics of rice export in Tanzania and the competitiveness of rice exported is assessed using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Model. The results show that real exchange rates, international rice prices, quantity produced and the average GDP per capita of the main importers of Tanzania rice in EAC were the key determinants of rice export performance though the commodity was found to be less competitive within the EAC and neighboring countries such as Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique which also import rice from Tanzanian. To improve rice export performance and enhance competitiveness, the country should increase production to take advantage of existing demand for rice from EAC countries and other neighboring countries.

ANALISIS PENGARUH PANDEMI COVID-19 TERHADAP HARGA BERAS PROVINSI DI PULAU JAWA

The Covid-19 pandemic has impacted several sectors in Indonesia, but the agricultural sector continues to grow amid the weakening national economy. This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in the price of provincial rice in Java before and during Covid-19 and the factors that affect the price of provincial rice in Java using panel data. The results showed that the Covid-19 pandemic affected rice prices and resulted in fluctuations in provincial rice prices on the island of Java. Provincial rice prices in Java are also influenced by international rice prices, HPP and per capita consumption, while rice production has a negative effect on rice prices. In the short and long term, every increase in international rice prices, per capita consumption, HPP, and cases of Covid-19 will increase the price of rice, while every increase in rice production will reduce the price of provincial rice on the island of Java.

A simulation of increasing rice price toward the disparity of income distribution: An evidence from Indonesia

PurposeConsidering the significance of rice as a staple food in Indonesia, this study aims to analyze the impact of various factors, i.e., domestic price production level, exchange rate, international rice price, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, on domestic rice prices and the resultant disparity in income distribution and inequality in the country. MethodsA simulation analysis has been performed to assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on rice prices and the resultant income disparity in Indonesia. For that, input data from 2006 to 2020 was used to depict the change in domestic rice prices from 2021 to 2026 due to independent variables changes. FindingsResults revealed that a regular increase in rice production decreases rice prices in the longer term. Besides, a rise in the exchange rate decreases rice prices, and a fall in the exchange rate results in higher rice prices. Results also showed the insignificant impact of international rice prices on domestic rice prices in Indonesia. In contrast, an increase in per capita income reflected an increase in rice prices. Moreover, the result of the study exemplifies that the expenditure for rice has a very low elasticity (0.0975) compared to the expenditure on non-rice food (0.4096). More than half of the total household expenditure (50.71%) is spent on food, while the rest (49.29%) is used for non-food. The increase in rice prices affects the rise of income amongst farmers and declines the income of non-farmers. Hence it affects the decline of disparity in households' income distribution. Originality/valueThis study adds value to the existing literature with several implications for practitioners, policymakers, and government organizations to take necessary measures to stabilize rice prices and income distribution among the various income groups.

Analysis of factors influencing Thai rice trade based on Gravity model

The purpose of this study is to analyse what factors influencing Thai rice export including importers’ GDP, exporters of GDP, distance of the countries, international rice prices, production and exchange rates by using the gravity model approach. The results show that the factors that influence rice exports in Thailand include the GDP of the importing country, the GDP of the exporting country, distance, international rice prices, production and the real exchange rate. Factors that have positive coefficients are importers’ GDP and real exchange rates, while those with negative coefficients are exporters’ GDP, rice prices, production and distance. Positive coefficients include importer’s GDP and Real Exchange Rate. The GDP of the importing country has a positive coefficient of 0.73 and the real exchange rate or RER (Real Exchange Rate) has a positive coefficient of 0.73. In addition, the negative coefficient values include exporters’ GDP, rice prices, production and distance. The exporting country’s GDP has a negative coefficient of 0.98, prices have a negative coefficient of 1.37 and production has a negative coefficient of 0.23 and distance has a negative coefficient of 0.3.

Permintaan Impor (Import Demand) Beras di Indonesia: Pendekatan Analisis Times-Series – Vector Error Correction Model

This article aims to examine some of the components that affect rice imports in Indonesia in the short and long term through a time-series analysis method approach using the Vector Error Correction model as an approach of estimating commodity specific import demand models. Data series in the period 1975-2015 of variable domestic prices, international rice prices, exchange rates and GDP. Estimation results show only a one-way causality relationship between relative prices, exchange rates and income. While the long-term relationship is not found in this import demand model. Therefore, implications in further research especially in modeling time-series are the main recommendations in this article. Keyword : vector error correctio n, Import Demand,

Relationship of Rice Price across Asian Countries: A Study of Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam

Rice prices provide various information about rice markets. This study estimates relationships between Myanmar and rice exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, using monthly rice prices. The cointegrating rank test is applied to find a long-run relationship and then a Granger causality test is used to determine causal relations among the three countries. This paper found that there is no long-run relationships among the three countries. In addition, we could not find Granger causal relationships from most pairs of prices. Based on the results from cointegrating rank and Granger causality tests, different type of economic shocks are detected and identified in each rice price. With the results, this study implies that international rice prices are independently moved.

Transmisión de los precios del arroz en Colombia y el mundo

The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatial price transmission of rice in Colombia, emphasizing the impact of trade policies. For this purpose, a Markov-switching vector error correction model was used to model regime shifts in the relationship between domestic and international rice prices in Colombia and some control countries, from January 1996 to September 2018. The results reveal three price transmission regimes that coincide with internal trade policies and with the food crisis of 2007-2008. The high volatility regime was the most persistent, with an average duration of 15.4 months, a transition probability of 93 % and an adjustment speed of 0.24. In addition, during this regime, Colombia was less integrated into the international rice market. These results are relevant, since they constitute the application of a threshold methodology to the analysis of the transmission of agricultural prices and can be useful for the design of agrarian policies that contribute to the integration and competitiveness of the Colombian rice sector.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

This study aims to 1) identify factors that affect the import of rice in Indonesia 2) analyze the influence of these factors on imports of rice in Indonesia. The data used in this research are time series data from 1994 to 2013 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, National Logistics Agency (Bulog), and Bank Indonesia. Multiple linear regression through SPSS software version 21 was employed to analyze the data. The test results together indicated the variables of productions, consumptions, stocks of rice, domestic rice prices, international rice prices and the rupiah against the US dollar affect the imports of rice in Indonesia.

Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market

Paddy rice is a staple food that is common among the Sri Lankan populace. However, the frequent price variation of rice has negatively impacted the Sri Lankan economy. This is due to the Sri Lankan rice market lacking the mechanisms to evaluate and predict future rice price variations, often leaving domestic traders and consumers affected by sudden price spikes. This study identifies the quantifiable economic factors that affect the sudden rice price variations and presents a viable mechanism for forecasting Domestic Rice Price (DRP). In addition, it establishes three different regression models to emphasise the relationship of DRP in Sri Lanka with three economic factors: International Rice Price (IRP), International Crude Oil Price (ICOP), and USD Exchange Rate. Further, a time series model is formulated to forecast future variations in DRP while advancing factors that have a significant, but negative, correlative impact on the DRP. The results presented in this study show that the models proposed can be used by relevant food authorities to predict sudden hikes and dips in DRP, allowing them to establish a robust price control system.

Impact of Rising International Market Prices of Rice on Welfare and Poverty in Senegal

This study assessed the impact of rising international market prices of rice on real household income and poverty in Senegal. Net benefit ratio indicator developed by Deaton (1989) to assess the impact of a change in the international rice price on household welfare were used in the analysis. The data came from the second poverty monitoring survey in Senegal. Using two indicators: (i) per capita spending and (ii) expenditure per adult equivalent, the results showed that rising international rice prices negatively affect real income and poverty. This negative effect were more pronounced in urban areas and in areas with high rice consumption. Poverty also increased by 3.5% when the first indicator was used. However, it increased by 4.25% when the second indicator was used. Statistics showed that 37% of the richest households consume rice compared to 7% of the poorest households. In addition, urban households allocate 25% of their budget to rice consumption, compared to 24.4% for rural households. To reduce Senegal’s vulnerability, governments need to take steps to limit the country’s dependence on rice imports. Therefore, it would be essential to invest more in the production and consumption of local rice.

Analysis of factors affecting retail prices of rice in North Sumatera

This study aims to determine the factors that affect the retail price of rice and its effect on retail rice prices in North Sumatra. The model useful to get the function of the retail price of rice by using annual data from 1986 to 2015. The results of the study we found that rice consumption per capita, quantity of rice import and Bulog rice stock have negative effect on retail price of rice, in contrast the international rice price and the rice production. Rice consumption per capita and quantity of rice import do not significantly affect retail price of rice, while the international rice price, Bulog rice stock and rice production significantly affect retail price of rice respectively at the alpha level of 5 and 1 percent. Rice production is a the greatest influence on the formation of retail price of rice by the estimated coefficient of 1.040.

Risky Income or Lumpy Investments? Evidence on Two Theories of Underspecialization

Why do the poor have so many economic activities? According to one theory the poor do not specialize because relying on one income source is risky. I test the theory by measuring the response of Thai rice farmers to conditional volatility in the international rice price. Households expecting a harvest take on 1 extra activity when the volatility rises by 21 percent. I confirm the decrease in specialization costs households foregone revenue. I find no evidence to back a second theory in which households under-specialize because they cannot afford lumpy business investments.

INTEGRASI PASAR BERAS INDONESIA DENGAN PASAR BERAS INTERNASIONAL

The food crisis that was triggered by climate change has swept the world lately. Climate change is affecting the pattern of the world that led to changes in the pattern of agricultural production as well. Changes in the pattern of production results in world food production schedule was delayed, and along with these changes, many countries export so that world food prices increase. Rising world food prices starting from US and then spread in the other parts of the world, including Indonesia. However, it is unknown how big relatedness of International food prices changes with food prices in Indonesia. This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between domestic rice market with international market, how long shock in international rice impact on the domestic market and to analyze interlinkage in domestic primary rice market. Using data rice price in indonesia and international rice price of FAO, writer found that market rice integrated both in domestic and foreign, so the fluctuations in both markets would affect each other Keywords: Food Crisis, Production Pattern, Domestic and International Market Integration

INTEGRASI PASAR BERAS INDONESIA DENGAN PASAR BERAS INTERNASIONAL

The food crisis that was triggered by climate change has swept the world lately. Climate change is affecting the pattern of the world that led to changes in the pattern of agricultural production as well. Changes in the pattern of production results in world food production schedule was delayed, and along with these changes, many countries export so that world food prices increase. Rising world food prices starting from US and then spread in the other parts of the world, including Indonesia. However, it is unknown how big relatedness of International food prices changes with food prices in Indonesia. This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between domestic rice market with international market, how long shock in international rice impact on the domestic market and to analyze interlinkage in domestic primary rice market. Using data rice price in indonesia and international rice price of FAO, writer found that market rice integrated both in domestic and foreign, so the fluctuations in both markets would affect each other Keywords: Food Crisis, Production Pattern, Domestic and International Market Integration

Price volatility trends and price transmission for major staples in India

India is one of the largest producers as well as exporters of some major food commodities, and is often criticized for its protectionist measures to curb transmission of price shocks from international markets. This paper examines if such policies are necessary to protect domestic consumers from price fluctuations and what are their implications on international prices. To understand this, in this paper we have examined the patterns, trends and volatility in domestic and international prices of rice and wheat, and found that although both the international and domestic prices are volatile, the degree of volatility is higher in the international prices. The volatility in domestic prices is mainly due to internal production shocks and is not influenced much by the international prices. This disconnect is attributed to domestic policy measures, such as market support to farmers and public stockholding of food grains for public distribution and price stabilization.

Factors Affecting the Domestic Price of Rice in Indonesia

This study aims to determine the factors that have dominant influence to domestic prices of rice. Ordinary Least Square is used to run model with time series data from BPS. The results of the study we found that domestic rice production and the exchange rate have negative effect on domestic rice prices, in contrast the international rice price and the level of income per capita. Domestic production of rice and international prices of rice do not significantly affect domestic prices of rice, while the exchange rate and per capita income significantly affect domestic prices of rice respectively at the alpha level of 10 and 1 percent. Per capita income is a the greatest influence on the formation of domestic prices of rice by the estimated coefficient of 3.5985. This condition also describe the level of society's dependence on rice consumption. The high of difference of domestic price of rice with the international rice prices can be detrimental to the community while providing a strong emphasis on increasing imports of rice as well as trigger the illegal market.

Impact of Agricultural Investments on International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal

Impact of Agricultural Investments on International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

AbstractRecent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.

Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Stabilizing International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change

Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Stabilizing International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change

Agricultural trade liberalisation and price volatility in Bangladesh and Tanzania: a comparative analysis

This paper examines the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation on the welfare of smallholder farmers in Bangladesh and Tanzania. Using secondary data for the pre and postliberalisation periods for two main agricultural crops from Bangladesh (rice) and Tanzania (maize) we analysed the correlation between domestic and international prices of rice and maize to investigate impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation on price stability/volatility and food security with a view to analysing the economic benefits of trade liberalisation for smallholder farmers. To understand price volatility, we used the Huchet-Bourdon (2011) method to estimate the coefficient of variation of the level of prices (CV) and the corrected coefficient of variation (CCV). We found that the values of both CV and CCV for consumer price in the postliberalisation period were quite large, suggesting greater volatility of consumer price of both crops. We further found that productivity growth did not necessarily lead to income gains for smallholder farmers in either country due to price volatility and the lack of market integration. This study illustrates the contradictory outcomes of agricultural trade liberalisation. We recommend complementary policy interventions to achieve enhanced welfare outcomes from agricultural trade liberalisation.