International Monetary System Research Articles

The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset

The rise of Renminbi (RMB) is one of the significant changes of the international monetary system since the 2008 global financial crisis. Through its economic influence in trade and direct investment, China has promoted the international use of RMB in both the global market and the regional market of East Asia. This paper documents the progress of RMB internationalization with the settlement currency information from the SWIFT dataset. Specifically, we conduct a network analysis to study the spillover effects among USD, EUR, GBP, JPY and RMB. From October 2010 to February 2018, the influence of RMB is found to be minimal in the global market, but dominant within ASEAN+3, especially for transactions related with real economy. These results indicate that RMB has become an influential regional currency, but it remains far from a truly international currency with global prominence.

THE DYNAMICS OF THE SUCCESSION OF CURRENCIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY – A CASE OF CHINESE FINANCIAL LEADERSHIP?

The global monetary system since the Industrial Revolution in two periods had two periods. First, a period with Britain as the great economic and political power and the Pound Sterling as the most important international currency and second, the United States as the leading economy and a dollar-based international scenario. The relation between goods, money, and foreign exchange markets is important to understand patterns in terms of exchange rate and currency internationalization. Therefore, the Crowther balance of payments cycles may be important to identify these patterns and to serve as a standard of reference to investigate shifts in exchange rate, and their consequences on balance of payments movements. Since 1978, China has emerged as a strong candidate to assume protagonist in the global monetary system, displaying high and stable economic growth. This paper aims to investigate the necessary conditions for China to internationalize the Renminbi, local currency, and to infer its status in that progress.

Currency Competition: Currency Internationalization Potential Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

Frequently noted inadequately explored connections between currency internationalization and expected change in the polarity of the international monetary system in the international relations literature are commanding the renewed attention and vigorous debate for more international monetary arena studies. This paper examines the potential of competing currencies to internationalize. For the first time, we utilize a fuzzy logic-based multi-dimensional model assessing separately the internationalization potential of 14 competing currencies in 2020 to predict whether the international monetary system is likely to remain unipolar and US dollar based, or evolve into a multipolar international monetary arena. The results suggest comparable levels of currency internationalization exist, indicating that the international monetary system may be further shaped into a more competitive (multipolar) monetary environment, controlling for economic, convertibility, monetary stability, political and legal factors. Finally, our results have policy implications since determined currency internationalization potential levels may facilitate economists and policymakers better understanding which currencies may play an increasingly large role in becoming a dominant international currency in the international monetary system.

FX Swap Valuation As a Cost of Filling Dollar Funding Gap: A Hierarchical and Dealer-Centric Perspective

This paper constructs a model of the FX swap valuation, the cost of synthetic dollar borrowing, based on the dealers’ behavior and the hierarchy of international finance. In this model, three fundamentals- market-making costs (measured by dealers’ bid-ask spreads), dollar funding liquidity risk (measured by CIP deviation), and the FX swap market liquidity (measured by the dealers’ competition)- derive the valuation of FX swap. The goal is to understand the financial instability spillovers between FX swaps and offshore US-Dollar funding markets through the “dealers” channel. FX dealers are vital institutions that connect different national monetary jurisdictions in the international monetary system. For currencies where FX turnover is low, market makers are central banks. On the other hand, those dealers are primarily private banks for currencies with the highest FX turnover, such as the US dollar. Nevertheless, studying the “dollar funding gap” through the lens of FX swap dealers is a feature that often gets overlooked in International Political Economy scholarship.

Forecasts of development of international payment systems

Forecasts of development of international payment systems

From European Federalism to the European Union, Insights of Nobel Prize Laureate, Maurice Allais

From 1945 to the end of his life, Maurice Allais, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics (1988), devoted a large part of his work to the European question. As a staunch Unionist, Allais insisted on the fact that, while the threefold freedom of goods, people and capital was necessary to improve the well-being of individuals, it was also a very ambitious goal. Thus, he argued, it was necessary to promote a European federalism on the basis of a scientific criterion: economic democracy—and via an organized method: competitive planning. However, Allais was aware that political integration had to precede economic integration and that economic efficiency could not be ensured without a single currency. He argued that the introduction of the euro had to be accompanied by real monetary reform (credit system, indexation of future commitments, stock markets, international monetary system) in order to regulate the multiplication of financial crises.

Cross-border payments, global imbalances and involuntary constraints

Investigations into the process by which cross-border payments are completed within the international monetary system remain largely unresolved. By exploring how these payments are executed through a flow of funds representation as per Institutional Practice—the operations of both the Central Bank and commercial banks within the payment and settlement system—this paper will (1) demonstrate that domestic monetary policy implementation entails the Central Bank offsetting all autonomous reserve flows to maintain an overnight policy rate; (2) show why global imbalances occur and persist across the international monetary system; and (3) outline the impact of involuntary constraints on policymaking.

The US current account, sustainability, and the international monetary system

In this paper, we examine the sources of the US current account imbalances and discuss the role of the international monetary system in enabling the US in carrying such external deficits. There is evidence that the stochastic properties of the US current account are not compatible with the intertemporal national budget constraint. We argue that this is likely to be related to the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve asset, which allows the US to meet international demand for safe assets and allows borrowing at very low interest rates. Results from a structural VAR model indicate that temporary shocks dominate the current account in the short run, whereas domestic permanent supply shocks and preference shocks contribute significantly to US current account movements in the long run. To the extent that temporary shocks stem from aggregate demand, stabilizing aggregate demand is important in achieving long-term sustainability in the current account. Finally, the paper discusses the role of the international financial system and the international role of the U.S. dollar in contributing to US external imbalances.

From Libra to Diem. The Pursuit of a Global Private Currency

Abstract The official launch of the Libra project in 2019, and the subsequent troubles experienced by the project, stimulated a vigorous debate, from different perspectives, on the pros and cons of a private currency with global ambitions. This paper describes the main characteristics of Libra and of its heir, Diem, locating both in a partial taxonomy of the increasingly crowded field of so-called ‘digital currencies’. In the light of the distinguishing features and risks of such an ambitious project, the paper also aims to assess the potential impact on a crucial issue of the present international monetary system: the power to create money.

Трансформация парадигмы финансовой архитектуры в условиях циклического и цифрового развития экономики

The article substantiates the importance and identifies the factors of innovative economic development, among which the special importance of financial architecture is emphasized; summarizes the essence, factors, principles and specific features of financial architecture; reveals the characteristic features of the manifestation and perception of cyclical economic processes and countercyclical regulation; identifies the problems of regulating international financial markets, the role and importance of the banking system in the financial architecture, the interdependence of credit relations and the development of the real sector of the economy; the factors that led to the need to restructure the international monetary system were identified.

Modern indicators of financial crimes detection and their prevention in Ukraine

The increase in the level of financial crime is caused by the technological development, weak moni-toring of financial institutions, low level of international cooperation in terms of combating these types of crimes. The paper aims to develop effective ways to combat financial crimes in Ukraine. With the help of a systematic analysis of financial crime modern indicators, theoretical sources, prac-tical measures and international experience, the main indicators of financial crimes are identified. Such indicators are the use of false documents and other people's accounts, international payment systems; frequent and complex financial transactions of a confusing nature; unusual for a client amounts and counterparties of the transaction; incomplete or missing payment information. The study has found that the increase in the level of financial crime is influenced by the presence of off-shore zones, the low level of liability for the crime, the reluctance of financial institutions to interact with law enforcement agencies in regard to combating such crimes. It is possible to increase the level of financial crime counteraction by conducting an external audit and investigation of financial crimes, establishing international cooperation to combat such crimes, blocking suspicious financial transactions, taking preventive measures and combating related crimes.

The Ethics of Global Capital Mobility

Global capital mobility is a crucial determinant of economic, political, and social life. While much has been written about the ethics of human movement, political theory has remained nearly silent on the ethics of capital movement. In this article, we intend to develop a general account of the ethics of global capital mobility—identifying both the forms of mobility that merit protection and those that merit restriction. By integrating normative theorizing with an economic analysis of global investment, we argue that the movement of capital, with important exceptions, should be much more restricted than it is today. We make the case, on both grounds of global justice and international assistance, for imposing coercive limits on cross-border inflows and outflows of capital. To enable them, we also propose a radical reform of the international monetary system—a new global currency—that would simultaneously facilitate beneficial capital movements.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in Africa: Why CBDCs Could be A ‘Disaster’ for the Continent

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are been designed a ‘new normal’ for the world of finance in which payments (digital currency) can be made directly from one party to another without financial intermediaries regardless macroeconomic links. Digital currency has ushered the world of finance into uncharted waters as central banks and international institutions crumble to fine their feet’s in a fast moving stream of decentralised finance (DeFi) and global stablecoins. As central banks embark on the CBDCs journey, there are number of questions which must be address: What problems are CBDC’s expected to solve? How do current design thinking resolve these problems in Africa? Are there alternatives to CBDCs in Africa ? Broadly, CBDCs are expected to resolve inefficient and costly domestic and cross-border payments and settlement, ensure price stability and financial stability, retain monetary policy independence and digital de-dollarization. A qualitative descriptive design has been adopted in this study.Findings. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) well-designed in a new multilateral fair and just international monetary architecture has the potential to ensure price stability and financial stability in both advanced and developing economies in general, but more importantly would enable developing countries to regain some among of monetary policy independence. However, under the CBDCs design thinking within the framework of existing international monetary and financial architecture, no economy in Africa can withstand the powers of BigFintech, DeFi, global stablecoins and foreign sovereign digital currencies. This paper concludes that African countries must decide whether to cede their sovereign power to an independent monetary authority with single digital currency to manage under their control or cede their economic and financial destiny to unaccountable foreign BigFintech and/or foreign sovereign CBDCs in form of digital dollarization. Keywords: digital currency, CBDCs, digital dollarization, international monetary system, Africa DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-18-03 Publication date: September 30 th 2021

Digital Currencies and Relevant Policy Analysis

The paper collates the relations of digital currencies with the past forms of currencies, studies the operating mechanism of digital currencies, analyzes the influence of digital currencies on the financial order and economic pattern, and probes into how to drive the reform of global monetary system with pragmatic and innovative efforts. The paper highlights: First, the evolution and development of currency reflects the mankind’s social and economic development level. Second, digital currency born with the advances of technology does not change the content of credit money. The credit money-to-digital currency shift must respect the operating mechanism of money and ensure that the physical market and the money market are balanced or roughly balanced. Third, with a complicated influence on the social economy, digital currency is unlikely to change the global monetary system and the international economic pattern easily. Fourth, the work of encouraging financial innovation and improving overall financial infrastructure should come with strengthened efforts to develop sound rules governing the market order in the context of digital economy, by guarding against the risks from “excessive monopoly” and “decentralization”. Fifth, the paper calls for linking “trust, confidence and credit” of the human society organically with such intrinsic values as global development, global planning and global resources, and also leveraging such values to actively approach the “Earth-based” monetary system and its replacement of the “gold standard”, the “silver standard” and the sovereign credit based monetary system which have been in long use.

Bretton Woods After 50

ABSTRACT This paper reviews the operation of the Bretton Woods international monetary system 50 years after the United States closed the Gold Window linking the dollar to gold in August 1971. It argues that Bretton Woods operated as successfully as it did owing to three special circumstances: low international capital mobility, tight financial regulation, and the dominant economic and financial position of the United States and the dollar. There can be no more straightforward an explanation for why nothing like Bretton Woods will be restored in the foreseeable future.

‘Toward a Global Social Contract for Trade’ - a Rawlsian approach to Blockchain Systems Design and Responsible Trade Facilitation in the New Bretton Woods era

Imminent changes to the international monetary system alongside a shift toward more egalitarian principles of justice in commercial contracts for trade are now taking place. Such changes however do not sufficiently account for circumstances of hardship, or black-swan events such as COVID-19, whereby the relative losers of trading arrangements should continue to receive outcomes which are not only efficient, but also fair and resilient. We argue that the ‘Society-in-the-Loop’ (SITL) social contract paradigm, in conjunction with the use of Strategic Responsible Innovation Management (StRIM), can together provide a solution for improving distributive justice in trade. Through collaboration with a locally based trade facilitation company, we describe the innovation-planning phase of a blockchain smart contract solution based on Derek Leben's idea of a ‘Rawlsian Algorithm’ (2017). It is demonstrated how this can be used to strengthen the algorithmic fairness of commercial contract implementation in accordance with existing ISO 20022 standards. Since currently no formal design framework exists for modeling blockchain oriented software (BOS), an agile development approach is adopted which takes account of the substantial difference between traditional software development and smart contracts. This method involves the construction of UML Use Case, Sequence, and Class diagrams, with a view to blockchain specificities. Evaluation and feedback from the company is also considered.

Can Central Banks circumvent the impossible trinity within their operational frameworks? Theory and evidence

AbstractCentral Bank operational frameworks can be challenged during times of severe financial stress. Typical of such an instance is where policymakers attempt to heavily manage or fix a domestic exchange rate whilst faced with balance of payments pressures. However, it is claimed to be impossible for policymakers to achieve both monetary independence and exchange rate stability if the domestic economy were to post a balance of payment surplus, otherwise known as the ‘impossible trinity’. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the European Monetary System crisis through the lens of Institutional Practice, that is the day‐to‐day operations of key institutions, such as the Central Bank, Treasury and commercial banks, with a view to demonstrate why global imbalances are able to occur and persist across the international monetary system. Through both a theoretical and an empirical appraisal, this paper shows how Central Banks in economies with a balance of payments surplus can circumvent the binding constraints of the trinity within their operational frameworks.

The International Monetary System: New Evidence Concerning a Transition to Multipolarity

This article focuses on the transition of the international monetary system to a multipolar structure. The international monetary system continuously evolves, reflecting developments in the world economy. The main problem of the current international monetary system is its dependence on one key currency which still remains the US dollar. The authors of this study address the issue of a transition towards a multipolar system by examining currency concentration. The primary objective of this work is to establish whether or not the current international monetary system shows signs of transitioning towards multipolarity. To achieve this, the authors have used tools measuring the level of market concentration. The change of polarity of the international monetary system is analysed with concentration ratios and the Herfindahl-Hirshmann index. The theoretical part focuses on definitions of key terms essential for this study, such as international monetary system, currency polarity, global currency, and currency concentration. For the practical part, data were sourced from the databases of global institutions, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) and the European Central Bank (ECB). This part focuses on a period of time between 2001 and 2019, and the results indicate that the current international monetary system shows signs of transitioning towards a multipolar structure. The level of currency concentration of the key reserve currencies dropped slightly, although not enough to cause a qualitative change of the current international monetary system. This study may serve as a base for future research on this topic.

The “exorbitant privilege” and “exorbitant duty” of the United States in the international monetary system: implications for developing countries

The international monetary system may be viewed as a global insurance system, where the United States enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of a positive yield differential on its external assets and liabilities during normal times, in exchange for the “exorbitant duty” of valuation losses in the form of wealth transfers to the rest of the world during crisis periods. Evidence for 76 economies and 1995–2019 indicates that some other major developed economies also enjoy an exorbitant privilege, though without suffering an exorbitant duty. By contrast, most developing economies neither have an exorbitant privilege nor benefit from wealth transfers. Developing economies as a group recorded negative return differentials and valuation losses during 2010–2019, implying a total return differential of about minus three percentage points between developing and developed economies and an annual average resource transfer from developing economies of about $800bn, or 3.3 per cent of their GDP. Econometric analysis linking crisis insurance strategies and yield differentials indicates that permanent swap arrangements, reserve holdings and regional monetary arrangements can contain negative yield differentials. Developed economies could make part of past resource transfers available to developing economies to finance recovery from the COVID-19 crisis and achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10290-021-00422-5.

Перспективы появления новых платежных систем в России на примере создания аналога CLS

This paper examines the need to create new infrastructural payment and financial institutions in Russia to ensure greater independence of the Russian financial market from any external factors as well as the efficiency of the market for ruble conversion transactions and cross-border payments. The issue of creating an analogue of Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) in Moscow on the basis of the Interstate Bank, or establishing a new payment system, is highly relevant. Almost seven years ago, on September 22, 2014, the CLS international payment system postponed the inclusion of the Russian ruble in its list of currencies, scheduled for November of that year. The prospect of such inclusion in the coming years remains very weak. In March 2014, VISA and MasterCard payment systems stopped servicing cards of several Russian Banks in retail outlets and ATMs. Amendments to the Federal Law “On the National Payment System” were prepared and promptly adopted in order to provide infrastructure and information support for the processes of making money transfers within Russia. On July 23, 2014, the National Payment Cards System was launched, which was tasked with creating an operational and clearing center for processing domestic transactions with cards of the international payment systems and promoting the national payment card. This experience should be used to create new payment systems in order to secure the efficiency of cross-border payments and currency conversion operations. This step will extend the sphere of ruble convertibility, ensure an increase in the status of the ruble and its importance in international trade, and bring Russia closer to practical steps to create a regional international financial center. To expand settlements in rubles on the part of non-residents, it is necessary to strive to perform trade and financial transactions in rubles and keep ruble savings, which is impossible without a market for ruble conversion transactions. The author examines the prospects for creating a new payment system, in particular with participation of the CIS and BRICS countries.