International Capital Asset Pricing Model Research Articles

Regional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessment

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamics of regional financial integration in East Asia over the 1990:01–2012:08 period. To this end, we use the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) to assess the evolution of financial market integration through time and evaluate their risk premia. We also construct an Asian currency basket in order to obtain a reference currency in this area. Our empirical analysis is based on the multivariate GARCH-DCC approach with time-varying correlations. Our results show that the East Asian stock markets were partially segmented (except for Japan) within their region until approximately 2008. However, the last years are characterized by an upward trend in the regional integration of stock markets. Our findings also show that the risk premium related to regional stock markets is significant for all countries.

The International CAPM Redux

This paper presents new evidence that international investors are compensated for bearing currency risk. We present a new three-factor international capital asset pricing model, comprising a global equity factor denominated in local currencies, and two currency factors, dollar and carry. The model is able to explain a wide cross-section of equity returns from 46 developed and emerging countries from 1976 to the present, is also useful at explaining the risks of international mutual funds and hedge funds, and outperforms standard models proposed in the international asset pricing literature. We rationalize our findings with a simple model of endogenous exchange rate risk in complete markets, and identify the importance of correctly identifying the dynamics of quantities and market prices of risk.

Can the Future Be Calculated? On the Price of Exchange Rate Risk Once Today's Information is Fully Considered

The international CAPM (ICAPM) extends the classical CAPM by adding exchange rate risks as priced factors. In the literature, both conditional and unconditional tests confirm the significance of exchange rate risk. However, typical conditional tests of the ICAPM include few instruments with mixed levels of return forecastability. In contrast, investors nowadays use complex trading models that incorporate many variables. Previous conditional tests of the ICAPM might underrepresent the investors' information sets, which could lead to inconclusive results about the model's rejectability. This paper takes a different approach by selecting a set of instruments that maximizes the predictability of asset returns in order to optimally represent investors' information. In contrast to past findings, I find that exchange rate risk is not priced when using the optimized set of instruments. Specifically, the use of instruments that maximize the predictive power of the second moments of asset returns decreases the significance of the exchange rate risk premium.

Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis

This paper evaluates the time-varying integration of the Singapore stock market in the ASEAN-5 region based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with c-DCC-FIAPARCH parameters. This model allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and domestic market risk premium. Our findings show several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration in the Singapore market is satisfactorily explained by the level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, which have recently tended to increase, however these markets remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain a significant proportion of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity markets. Our results are also of interest for both policymakers and investors, with respect to regional development policies and dedicated portfolio investment strategies in the ASEAN-5 region.

Conditional pricing of currency risk in Africa's equity markets

In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa's volatile currencies drive equity risk premia. We use the SDF framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premia in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. Interestingly, we find evidence that international investors are concerned about Africa's small size equity markets and build the impact of anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.

TRADING BLOC EXPOSURE IN INTERNATIONAL ASSET PRICING: THE CASE OF AFTA, CER AND NAFTA

This paper shows that the resurgence of trade regionalism has a significant impact on stock market returns of the member countries in the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Arrangement (CER) and North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). A trading bloc international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) is proposed and we find that the trading bloc factor increases the explanatory power of the conventional ICAPM for AFTA and CER. Evidence indicates that returns of the markets in AFTA and CER are highly exposed to the trading bloc factor. At the same time, exposure to the global market is still significant, particularly for the more advanced markets of Singapore and Australia. The conventional ICAPM is still relevant for the large and leading world markets in NAFTA. The trade bloc factor, however, has minimal impact in influencing market returns of non-member countries. The findings of significant exposure to regional dynamics offer an explanation to why stock markets are generally segmented.

Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.

The Evolution Of Risk Premiums In Emerging Stock Markets: The Case Of Latin America And Asia Region

This paper employs a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to investigate the determinants of regional integration of stock markets in Latin America and Asia over the period 1996-2008. This model allows for three sources of time-varying risks: common international market risk, exchange rate risk, and regional market risk. At the empirical level, we make use of the asymmetric multivariate BEKK-GARCH of Baba et al.s (1990) process to simultaneously estimate the ICAPM. Our results show that the currency risk premium is the most important component of the total premium followed by the global market premium. As for the regional risk, our findings show that it is significantly priced for our studied emerging regions but its contribution to the total risk premium is weak.

Conditional Pricing of Currency Risk in Africa's Equity Markets

In this paper, we sought to establish whether Africa’s volatile currencies drive equity risk premia. We use the SDF framework to estimate various conditional specifications of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model through generalized method of moments technique. Our results show strong evidence of conditional, time-varying currency risk premia in equity returns. Currency risk is also perceived by international investors as important in informing the equities pricing kernel. We also find evidence that international investors are worried about Africa’s small size equity markets and build anticipated low trading into their pricing calculus.

Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.

Stock market integration and risk premium: Empirical evidence for emerging economies of South Asia

This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from five major South Asian markets (Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka), our results support the validity of an ICAPM and indicate that the risk is regionally priced. Furthermore, we show that changes in the degree of regional stock market integration are explained principally by the U.S. term premium, and the level of market openness, whatever the measure of currency risk. Finally, and as expected, the degree of stock market integration varies considerably over time and from one market to another. As intense market integration induces both benefits and risks, our findings should have significant implications for economic policies and market regulations in emerging, frontier-emerging and transition countries, particularly for countries from the same region.

Greece’s Stock Market Integration with Southeast Europe

This paper analyzes the time-varying integration of the Greek stock market from a regional perspective by using a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) allowing for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market currency risk, and local market risk. We show that the prices of risk are extremely sensitive to major international economic and political events such as the different monetary and financial crises in Asian and Latin American countries in 1997, 1998, and 2001. In addition, we show that the level of market openness and development of the stock market satisfactorily explain the time-varying degree of Greek stock market integration.

Greece’s Stock Market Integration with Southeast Europe

This paper analyzes the time-varying integration of the Greek stock market from a regional perspective by using a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) allowing for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market currency risk, and local market risk. We show that the prices of risk are extremely sensitive to major international economic and political events such as the different monetary and financial crises in Asian and Latin American countries in 1997, 1998, and 2001. In addition, we show that the level of market openness and development of the stock market satisfactorily explain the time-varying degree of Greek stock market integration.

Measures of equity home bias puzzle

The paper develops measures of home bias for 48 countries over the period 2001 to 2011 by employing various models: International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), Mean-Variance, Minimum-Variance, Bayes-Stein, Bayesian and Multi-Prior. ICAPM country portfolio weights are computed relative to world market capitalization. Bayesian models allow for various degrees of mis-trust in the ICAPM model. Multi-Prior restricts the expected return for each asset to lie within specified confidence interval around its estimated value. Mean-Variance computes optimal weights by sample estimates of mean and covariance matrix of sample return. Bayes-Stein shrinks each asset’s historical mean return toward the return of the Minimum Variance Portfolio and improves precision associated with estimating the expected return of each asset. The paper finds that foreign listing, idiosyncratic risk, beta, inflation, natural resources rents, size, global financial crisis and institutional quality has significant impact on home bias. There are policy implications associated with home bias.

Integration versus segmentation in Middle East North Africa Equity Market: Time variations and currency risk

This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from seven major countries of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region (Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Kuwait and Tunisia), our results support the validity of ICAPM and indicate that the risk is regionally priced. Furthermore, we show that changes in the degree of regional stock market integration are explained principally by inflation, exchange rate volatility, rate spread variations, short-term interest rate and world market dividend yield.

Australias Integration Into The ASEAN-5 Region

This paper attempts to evaluate the time-varying integration of Australian stock market in ASEAN-5 region (ASEAN + Australia, Korea, China, India and Japan) by using a conditional version of the international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) allowing for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market risk price, currency risk price and domestic market risk price. Main findings are as follows: i) the prices of risk in Australia are extremely sensitive to major international economic and political events such as the different monetary and financial crises in international financial market; ii) the level of market openness and development of the stock market satisfactorily explain the time-varying degree of Australian stock integration.

Currency Risk Premia and Uncovered Interest Parity in the International CAPM

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.

Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market

Based on a three-factor international capital asset pricing model, we examine whether the world market, the local market and the currency risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data collected from 2003 to 2010. As the dataset also includes the period of global financial crisis, we examine the issue of risk pricing in the full sample as well as in before and after global financial crisis periods. Unlike most existing studies, the empirical results presented in this paper are based on (i) the quasi maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) based multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and (ii) the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques. Our empirical analysis based on weekly data on 58 largest Canadian firms indicates that the currency as well as the local and the world market risks are priced in the Canadian equity market. This result holds for all exchange currency rates proxies and in all sample periods. We find that the price of the world market, the local market and the currency risks is time-varying and the Canadian equity market is partially segmented.

Incorporating Linkers in a Global Government BondRisk Model

Many governments around the world now issue inflation-protected securities, or linkers, alongside conventional nominal bonds. This extends the fixed-income investment universe. Investors may not know how to build these new securities into a bond-risk model that captures overall global-price covariance. The author studies this question through the international capital asset pricing model approach, which decomposes risk into a global systematic component and a local specific component. The challenge is to fit a linear factor model onto the triangular relationship that exists between the nominal bond yields, the inflation-linked bond yields, and yield spreads called the inflation break-even rates. The author’s model provides a consistent view of risk for internationally invested portfolios containing nominal bonds, linkers, and/or inflation swaps. <b>TOPICS:</b>Fixed-income portfolio management, technical analysis, global

The Role of Energy Commodities in Middle East Stock Market Integration

Given the importance of stock market integration as an indicator of portfolio benefits on the merits of global fund diversification, we test whether the integration of frontier stock market in Middle East (Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Oman) can be justified by the movement of energy commodities prices. Using the International capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the period January 1997–March 2010, our results indicate that there is a dynamic relationship between energy commodities in the long run. However, the sort linkages of Granger causalities show that only coal and oil Granger-cause market integration. As robustness check, this study investigates the integration of those markets into the European, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE), US, and UK stock markets. Using multivariate regression and after controlling for the size and trading liquidity, we found that there is significant relationship between energy commodities and market integration.