Objective: This paper analyzes the strategic role of nuclear energy within the Brazilian electricity matrix, aiming to reduce systemic vulnerability in the context of the increasing share of intermittent renewable sources and the declining participation of hydropower, historically the backbone of national generation. Theoretical Framework: The study is based on guidelines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the National Energy Plan 2030, and scientific articles from journals such as Nature Energy and Applied Energy, addressing energy security, nuclear fission, and renewable intermittency. Method: A documental analysis was conducted using historical series on water scarcity (2013–2022), calculation of the Thermal Power Plant Dispatch Coefficient, and development of a vulnerability equation tailored to the Brazilian electrical system. Simulations compared scenarios of installed capacity expansion through intermittent sources and nuclear generation. Results and Discussion: The results show that expansion relying solely on renewables significantly increases system vulnerability, whereas the inclusion of nuclear generation reduces this index, ensuring greater supply stability and less dependence on fast-dispatch thermal plants. Research Implications: This study contributes to sustainable energy planning by demonstrating the importance of public policies that balance matrix diversification with the expansion of firm, low-carbon sources. Originality/Value: The paper provides an analytical model specific to the Brazilian context, quantifying the real impact of nuclear energy as a mitigator of operational risks in an increasingly intermittent system.
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