Integrated Transport Land Use Research Articles

Geospatial modelling of housing rents from TOD using MGWR and implications on integrated transportation-land use planning

Revealing the effect of transit-oriented development (TOD) on housing rents is critical for supporting transportation financing and sustainable urban development. However, existing research has not thoroughly examined the effects of land use type and TOD type on housing rents, crucially lacking geospatial modelling. This study investigates the spatial effect of TOD on housing rents using multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) and the relationship of land use type and TOD type to this effect. The results show that MGWR accurately quantifies the spatial effect. Meanwhile, the important TOD variables (integrated transit index, land use entropy, overall walkability) have positive effects on housing rents, which show spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, the premium effect of TOD station areas with a smaller proportion of residential and commercial land and a larger proportion of educational and cultural facilities is higher. Furthermore, in TOD station areas where transportation supply capacity is high but urban development is lagging, land use entropy and overall walkability have a strong influence on housing rents. Based on the study's results, we offer three recommendations for implementing TOD practices into integrated transportation and land use planning. This study renews our understanding of the outcomes of TOD both perspectively and methodologically.

Modeling residential mobility decisions from a life history–oriented perspective

ABSTRACT It is critical to investigate residential mobility decisions to better understand the residential relocation. Mobility is identified as a vital component of the integrated transportation-land use modeling. However, limited studies capture the longer-term temporal changes during the household’s life-course. This study adopts a life history–oriented approach to investigate effects of life-trajectory dynamics on mobility. The advanced hazard-based model captures heterogeneity and accommodates effects of repeated spells along the life-course of households. The model uses data from a retrospective survey conducted in Central Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada. Parameter estimation results confirm effects of life-cycle events, sociodemographics, and accessibility. For instance, households might be active in housing market following the birth of a child. The model confirms the existence of heterogeneity. For example, urban dwellers might trigger a move following the marriage of a household member; in contrast, suburban dwellers might continue to have a longer duration of stay.

Microsimulation of vehicle transactions within a life-oriented integrated urban modeling system

This paper presents the findings of microsimulating vehicle transaction decisions as a process of first-time vehicle purchase, acquisition, trade, disposal, and transaction or do nothing decisions. Vehicle transaction decision processes are simulated within an agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The influence of life-stage transitions and interactions of decisions at different domains along the life-time is accommodated as lead and lag events within the micro-behavioral models and computational procedures of iTLE. For example, trade and disposal decisions are found to be positively influenced by residential move as 1-year lead and 2-year lead events respectively. The simulation starts by generating baseline information for 2006 and runs for 15 years from 2007 to 2021 for Halifax, Canada. The validation results suggest that the majority of the predicted vehicle ownership levels lie within a few percentage points from the observed population. For instance, zero vehicle ownership is under-represented by 1% only. In terms of microsimulation results, a higher proportion of zero vehicle ownership households is predicted in the Halifax urban core. Households with a higher vehicle ownership level are predicted to reside towards the suburban areas. For vehicle transaction type, a higher proportion of first vehicle purchase is predicted to include lower income younger population. In 2021, the average vehicle per household member is predicted to be 0.72. Around 75% of the households are predicted to own at least one vehicle per household member. At the neighborhood-level, the median value of average vehicle ownership per household is predicted to increase to 1.41 in 2021 from 1.37 in 2007. In summary, this paper offers interesting insights on the spatio-temporal evolution of vehicle ownership and transaction pattern, which will assist in testing alternative transport and land use policies.

Microsimulation of life-stage transitions and residential location transitions within a life-oriented integrated urban modeling system

This paper presents microsimulation of life-stage transitions and residential location transition processes within a life-oriented agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The iTLE assumes that individuals and households are the agents, and parcels are the objects. It is conceptualized following the life-course perspectives and theories to address the evolution of multi-domain decision interactions over the life-course of the agents. Residential location is simulated as a two-stage process of residential mobility, and location choice. Life-stage simulation includes aging, death, birth, out-migration, in-migration, and household formation. The iTLE is implemented at a yearly time-step from 2006 to 2021 for Halifax, Canada. A 100% synthetic population is generated for the base year 2006, which shows a SRMSE value of 0.37 and APE measures of less than 5% for 89% of the DAs. The simulation results are validated with the 2011 Census information. The validation results suggest that the iTLE generates reasonably satisfactory population estimates. For example, around 52% of the DAs show an APE value of less than 30%, and 37% of the DAs show a difference in the number of households of less than ±50. The predicted results regarding the spatio-temporal evolution of Halifax suggests an increase of around 14% population in 2021 compared to 2007. Younger population residing closer to the CBD are predicted to be more frequent movers than older population residing farther away from the CBD. Higher proportions of the households are predicted in the locations within 25 km from the CBD over the years. Proportion of households in these high density neighborhoods are predicted to increase from 68% in 2007 to 71% in 2021. In 2021, a higher density of single person households are predicted in the urban core. Density is predicted to be more variable and skewed towards suburban neighborhoods as household composition changes through marriage and child birth.

A pathway linking smart growth neighborhoods to home-based pedestrian travel

Land development patterns, urban design, and transportation system features are inextricably linked to pedestrian travel. Accordingly, planners and decision-makers have turned to integrated transportation-land use policies and investments to address the pressing need for improvements in physical activity levels via the creation of walkable communities. However, policy questions regarding the identification of smart growth indicators and their connection to walking remain unanswered, because most studies of the built environment determinants of pedestrian travel: (a) represent the built environment with isolated metrics instead of as a multidimensional construct and (b) model this transportation-land use relationship outside of a multidirectional analytic framework. Using structural equation modeling, this Portland, Oregon study identifies a second-order latent construct of the built environment indicated by land use mix, employment concentration, and pedestrian-oriented design features. Study findings suggest this construct has a strong positive effect on the household-level decision to walk for transportation and discretionary trip purposes.

Baseline Synthesis and Microsimulation of Life-stage Transitions within an Agent-based Integrated Urban Model

Abstract: This paper presents baseline synthesis and microsimulation of life-stage transitions within an agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. The baseline synthesis involves generation of synthetic population and vehicle ownership level synthesis. Synthetic population in generated in two stages: (1) generation of synthetic population at the dissemination area (DA) level, controlling for household- and individual-level attributes; and (2) allocation of the synthetic population at the micro-spatial unit of parcel using a logit-link model. Vehicle ownership synthesis involves a multinomial logit model to determine the vehicle ownership level for the base year. The life-stages of the synthetic population are simulated longitudinally at a yearly simulation time-step within the iTLE framework. The simulated life-stages include: aging, birth, death, in-migration, out-migration, and household formation. The iTLE is coded in the C# DotNET programming platform. A 100% synthetic population is generated for Halifax, Canada. The baseline synthesis and life-stage simulation results are satisfactory. For instance, population synthesis results suggest that around 62.81% of the DAs show an error percentage range of -5% to +5%.

Activities Relocation for a Sustainable Mobility System

The paper analyzes an existing Land Use Transport Integration (LUTI) model in terms of its capacity to generate sustainable mobility behaviours in an urban area promoting the use of the public transport. The cited LUTI assumes the residual capacity of the mass transit system as a key element to indicate location and intensity of new residential and activities developments. It appears as a tool for the adoption of integrated transport-land use policies, especially for the short term planning.A systematic and accurate analysis of this LUTI is reported considering a real case of study (the city of Rome, Italy): five scenarios with different characteristics both in terms of supply network and travel demand have been considered. Finally, suggestions are reported to overcome some weaknesses that can arise in practical applications of the LUTI.

Development of an Integrated Transport-land Use Model for the Activities Relocation in Urban Areas

The study presents a new Land Use – Transport Interaction (LUTI) planning model to provide an effective decision support system tool for the Urban Planning Administrations and to promote the use of the public transport system in urban areas.The idea is to relocate a subset of activities from urban zones with strong attraction, but poorly connected by the existing mass transit system, to urban zones close to the existing mass transit links with available residual capacity. This residual capacity is the main variable that indicates location and intensity of activities to be moved.The model has been applied for the real case study of the city of Rome in Italy. Results demonstrated the capability of the model to be a useful support system to suggest activities relocation pursuing the goal of sustainability for a short-term horizon.

How to Build an Alternative to Sprawl and Auto-centric Development Model through a TOD Scenario for the North-Pas-de-Calais Region? Lessons from an Integrated Transportation-land Use Modelling

This paper discusses results of an integrated land use and transport modelling, carried out for the territory of the French region of North-Pas-de-Calais using the software Tranus. The interest of this research was to simulate, test and evaluate impacts of a Transit Oriented Development regional plan, using the LUTI modelling tool. Therefore were analyzed evolution of transport demand modal share and dynamics of real estate market and of localization choices of population and activities. TOD is a model of urban development that promotes high quality, mixed and multi-functional densification, located in proximity of transit nodes and corridors, with priority to non-motorized mobility and with the aim to reduce land consumption and car dependency. Multiple TOD examples can be found at urban and metropolitan scale, with different characteristics depending on the socio-economic and territorial contexts, while rarer are interventions at a regional scale. Therefore this research aim to analyze the application of a TOD regional plan, applied to a specific group of regional railway nodes and corridors, selected for their TOD potential. Results showed that some rail corridors initially selected, clearly confirmed their TOD potential and that TOD effects are more evident in areas with good basic levels of attractiveness and of economic dynamism. Furthermore, if policy of densification clearly contributes to concentrate residential demand in urban zones and to limit urban sprawl, further incentives has to be organized in favor of transit use. More interesting effects are in fact found by simulating transit integrated tariff policies between regional train and bus services, as well as interventions discouraging car use, in addiction to TOD urban configurations.

Climate Change and Sustainable Transportation: The Case of California

California has adopted innovative legislation to tackle climate change. Energy-efficient buildings, lower-emissions industrial processes, and more fuel-efficient transportation vehicles operating on cleaner fuels are among the many strategies that are being implemented. However, to attain the needed reductions, California must find additional strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, especially from the transportation sector, which is a large fraction of the total emissions problem. This paper discusses the efforts that are underway to further increase transportation efficiency, shift transportation to less CO2-intensive modes, and slow or reverse growth in vehicle-kilometers of travel (VKT). The legislative mandate is leading to a new focus on methods for quantifying travel changes and emissions reductions, ranging from spreadsheet approaches to integrated transportation-land use models. It also is renewing interest in travel-demand management and land-use policies that could reduce overall travel. While a number of cities have embraced these strategies, their success in the face of the state’s continuing growth will likely depend on both federal and state policies and funding incentives.

Historical Validation of Integrated Transport–Land Use Model System

The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model for the greater Toronto–Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, area. The model system uses disaggregate models of spatial socioeconomic processes to evolve the state of the greater Toronto–Hamilton area from a known base case to a predicted end state in 1-year time steps. ILUTE has reached a state of operational implementation in which historical validation runs are being undertaken. The model runs start with 100% of the population of people, families, households, and dwelling units in the greater Toronto area that was synthesized for the year 1986. Twenty-year historical simulations (1986 to 2006) have been run, with model outputs being compared with Canadian census data and Transportation Tomorrow Survey data for 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006. This paper presents recent findings from these historical validation tests and emphasizes the system's modeling of the demographic evolution of the population and the region's housing market.

Disaggregate models with aggregate data: Two UrbanSim applications

UrbanSim has significant data requirements. In particular, it requires disaggregate data (traditionally at the 150 meter by 150 meter gridcell level) for employment, households, and buildings. While such data are not always easily available, most regions have readily available data in a more aggregate form, often at the level of traffic analysis zone (TAZ) or other municipal divisions. This paper describes two UrbanSim applications for the cities of Brussels, Belgium and Lyon, France that adopted different approaches of using aggregate data. In Brussels, aggregate zonal data were disaggregated to the gridcell level. In the Lyon application, the zone was used as the unit of analysis and as such, each zone corresponds to one gridcell. The objectives of this paper are: 1) establish whether an UrbanSim model can be developed using aggregate data; 2) describe two different approaches to using aggregate data with UrbanSim and evaluate; and 3) evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of using aggregate data, as well as the two different approaches described. In doing so, it advances knowledge in the field of transportation and land use modeling by helping modelers evaluate the use of an increasingly popular integrated transportation land use modeling option. Several conclusions flow from this work. First, aggregate data can be used to develop UrbanSim models. Second, only a limited amount of disaggregate information can be drawn from aggregate data. In the context of UrbanSim, this is manifested in models with relatively few variables and dubious simulation results—in other words, while it is possible to develop an UrbanSim application with aggregate data, it should not be used for applied analysis. Finally, the development of such models can be a relatively low-cost exercise to gain familiarity with UrbanSim’s functioning and data requirements. As a result, it can also be seen as an important first step to developing or evaluating UrbanSim for application in a new region.

Carbon Dioxide Reduction Benefits of Bus Rapid Transit Systems

Appraisal of the greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of transportation system interventions, such as investments in bus rapid transit (BRT), is of growing interest to transportation and environmental officials, investors, and other stakeholders. The lack of an accepted methodology to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation potential from modal shift and reductions in vehicle kilometers traveled has inhibited access to GHG-related funding mechanisms. This paper focuses only on development of a common methodology for BRT projects with sufficient information to conduct analysis. Adjustment factors were postulated that might be used to estimate generalized BRT investment impacts in large, developing cities. Parameters were established on the basis of in-depth analyses of the CO2 impacts on three BRT systems: those in Bogotá, Colombia; Mexico City, Mexico; and Jakarta, Indonesia. An analysis of CO2 emission reductions related to the Bogotá BRT system secured Clean Development Mechanism certification for carbon financing in 2006 and followed a corridor-focused methodology. In 2007 to 2008, a regional, integrated transportation–land use model was applied to BRT scenarios for Mexico City. Calculations have been updated on the basis of data from postimplementation passenger surveys. The methodology does not capture some potential sources of emissions savings, such as fuel consumption internal to the bus system. But even accounting for these differences, the Jakarta BRT system could produce much smaller GHG benefits. This paper reports on a preliminary effort to develop a reasonable methodology to estimate CO2 abatement potential at the project level in a way that facilitates aggregation at the national and regional levels.

Lessons Learned in Developing and Applying Land Use Model Systems

A variety of land use models is driven by theoretical advances, data availability, enhanced computation, and new policy-making needs. This paper describes the process of developing and applying a disaggregate model system that seeks to simulate the subdivision and land use change of parcels and the spatial allocation of households and employment across zones. Relying on multinomial logit specifications, random number generation, and a seemingly unrelated regression model with both spatial lag and spatial error components, the model development process was accompanied by a variety of challenges. Some issues are specific to the model presented here, but many are common for integrated transport–land use models. It is hoped that solutions to these issues and lessons learned offer useful insights for ongoing improvements in land use modeling endeavors of all types. Comparisons of road pricing and trend scenario results for the Austin, Texas, region highlight how policies may shape land and travel futures. Although the road pricing policy did not alter land use intensity patterns in a significant way, it was forecast to increase speeds across the region's network and reduce regional congestion levels.

Applications of Integrated Transport and Gravity-Based Land Use Models for Policy Analysis

Forecasting urban futures is of great importance to ensure the adequate provision of public and private services and to implement policies that guide demand while mitigating negative impacts. This study produces year 2030 predictions of land use and travel conditions across the Austin–Round Rock statistical metropolitan area of Texas by integrating a gravity-based land use model (modeled on Putman's Integrated Transportation–Land Use Package specification) with a standard travel demand model. The land use model cycles through job, household, and land consumption estimates across traffic analysis zones before feeding forward into a contemporaneous model of travel patterns. To understand the implications of different policies better, three scenarios were generated: a business-as-usual scenario, a congestion pricing plus carbon tax scenario, and an urban growth boundary (UGB) scenario. Results reveal how these transportation and land use policies may shape our land and travel futures, and they illuminate challenges and pitfalls of the gravity-based approach to land use (including the accompanying land consumption model). Of particular interest is that the imposition of road pricing (roughly 5¢/mi) had almost no discernable effect on land use predictions, yet resulted in the same predicted reduction in regional vehicle miles traveled as the UGB policy (roughly 15%).

Integrated Transportation Land Use Models for Calculations of Wider Economic Benefit in Transport Schemes

A set of suggested methodologies for appraisal of wider economic benefits was published by the United Kingdom Department for Transport, covering a range of welfare and gross domestic product (GDP) benefits including agglomeration economies (increase in productivity resulting from higher densities of employment), more people working (increase in output arising from better transport encouraging more people to work), more productive jobs (increase in productivity identified as resulting from jobs relocating into areas of higher productivity), increased output in imperfectly competitive markets (increase in production expected to result from transport improvements), and increased competition (benefits arising from increased competition as a result of transport improvements and wider benefits from the exchequer as consequences of GDP-related effects). MVA Consultancy and David Simmonds Consultancy were commissioned to study these wider economic impacts of transport interventions using a land use and transport interaction model in combination with the Department for Transport's new method for identifying and quantifying wider economic impacts. The aim of the study was to look at the likely impacts of a range of transport interventions, with a view to helping draw broad conclusions about which interventions, given particular characteristics of the area, are likely to provide an effective contribution to the economy. This paper presents the wider economic benefit methodology, describes the South and West Yorkshire Strategic Model, and reports on the results obtained.

The random-utility-based multiregional input–output model: solution existence and uniqueness

A number of operational land use-transportation models make use of spatial input–output (SIO) models, some of which are based on random-utility theory. The random-utility-based multiregional input–output (RUBMRIO) model has been solved in practice by iteratively applying a set of equations. Each of the model equations describes relationships among key model variables. This paper examines the existence and uniqueness of the RUBMRIO solution, which represents the spatial allocation of productive activities and commodity flows. Formulating the set of equations as a fixed-point problem illuminates these two key properties, and provides a general solution algorithm. Several numerical examples illustrate the solution uniqueness and algorithm convergence. These results are valuable for efficient application of such models to large-scale problems. By proving that a unique solution does exist and offering an algorithm that is guaranteed to converge, this work adds valuable support to the growing popularity of this integrated transportation-land use modeling framework.