Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Research Articles

Optimization of coal power phaseout pathways ensuring energy security: Evidence from Shandong, China's largest coal power province

China has committed to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. As the province with the country's largest coal power installed capacity, with soaring electricity and heating demands, Shandong has unique pathways to gradually phase out coal power. However, thus far, no studies have investigated coal power phaseout pathways at the provincial or national level with thorough consideration of energy security, encompassing both power and heating supply security. Here, we established five-dimensional criteria based on unit efficiency and environmental and technical attributes to evaluate unit-level coal power retirement priority and used an integrated resource strategic planning model to explore coal power phaseout pathways in Shandong. Overall, as many as 144 coal power units, which account for 6% of the total installed capacity, should have the highest retirement priority. Shandong could retire 100,000 MW of coal power by 2050 without compromising energy security through the ambitious development of low-carbon heating technologies. The evaluation criteria are applicable to various regions globally to assess coal power retirement priority. Shandong's case demonstrates the importance of low-carbon heating technology deployment in accelerating coal power phaseout to address climate change and facilitate energy transition.

Coupling effects of cross-region power transmission and disruptive technologies on emission reduction in China

Under the 2060 carbon neutrality commitment, China's power system will integrate high-share renewable energy and deploy disruptive technologies. We improved the integrated resource strategic planning model by considering cross-region power transmission and disruptive technologies (IRSP-cptdt), to reveal the coupling effects on fossil energy phase-down and emission reduction. The results show that China's power system will achieve near zero emissions by 2052, and provide 225 million tons of negative carbon per year by 2060 in an ambitious scenario, while the installed capacity of coal power cofiring with biomass, equipped with carbon capture and biomass power equipped with carbon capture will be 230GW and 102GW respectively. Compared to a counterfactual business-as-usual scenario, it will reduce CO2 emissions by 30.32 billion tons during 2021–2060 period, among which demand-side management contributing 0.24 billion tons, new energy storage 2.68 billion tons, cross-region power transmission 22.93 billion tons, and carbon capture technology 4.47 billion tons.

Research on integrated resource strategic planning based on complex uncertainty simulation with case study of China

In response to climate change, developing renewable energy has become a main way of energy transition in many countries. In terms of medium-and long-term, the development of renewable energy generation technologies, such as wind and solar, is certain to face uncertainties. More than this, power demand and other factors are also facing many complex uncertainties. However, traditional planning methods are not able to take various uncertainties into account. In the past, the serious underestimation of uncertainties existing in the development caused China’s a series of problems, such as renewables curtailment. Therefore, this paper firstly reviews the current status and the existing problems of renewable energy generation in China, and discusses the crucial uncertainty factors affecting medium-and long-term renewable energy planning; and then, the complex uncertainty models of power demand and renewable energy generation cost are built respectively, and the improved integrated resource strategic planning model is proposed; finally, by using the proposed model China’s wind, solar and biomass power development during 2016–2030 is studied from the perspective of big data planning, and the advantages and drawbacks of the improved method is discussed.

Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050

This paper proposes a Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (DIRSP) model based on a semi-Markov decision-making process. Considering the policy transfer probability matrix, we discuss the influence of different policy portfolios and input intensity on the timing and scale of low-carbon transition during the power planning process. In addition, we discuss various planning scenarios from a socio-technical system transition perspective. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning in China during 2015–2050 under different policies, including a typical reproduction pathway with unchanged policy that maintains the original coal-dominated technology pathway, a de-alignment/re-alignment pathway where renewable energy power technologies develop from niches to mainstream while the planning time for peak coal power moves ahead in 10–20 years due to subsidies to renewable and carbon tax policy, and the substitution and reconfiguration pathways in which renewable energy technologies compete with coal power in parallel, in which coal power will peak by 2020 while wind power and solar power will realize large-scale development by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Case study on power planning in China indicates that the methodology proposed in our study can enhance our understanding on the low-carbon transition process and the interaction between energy policy and transition pathway.

IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) with interconnected smart grids in integrating renewable energy and implementing DSM (demand side management) in China

The China's electricity consumption was 4966 TWh in 2012, which is the world top electricity consumer. The low carbon electricity is one of the key issues of its sustainable development. IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) is a useful tool to implement DSM (demand side management) and power planning on the supply side. However, the role of interconnected smart grids with fast growing cross-region transmission is not considered in the IRSP. Therefore, the paper proposes the model of IRSP with interconnected smart grids to integrate more renewable power generation to the grids and implement more DSM projects, which is called as IRSP-sgs (IRSP smart grids) model. Two scenarios are projected to study the impact of cross-region transmission on low carbon electricity by using the IRSP-sgs model until 2025 in China. Results show that the scenario with enhanced cross-region transmission helps to reduce electricity generation by 784.38 TWh and reduce CO2 emission by 999.57 million tons during 2013–2025, since the multi-regional power operation can integrate more than 488.30 TWh renewable generation into the grids and implement more DSM projects to substitute generation. In addition, it also provides tremendous opportunities to improve the stable operation of the power system.

Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning

In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government.

Electricity Economics and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (Gustav Ranis Lecture)

Electricity supply economics and electricity demand economics are the two major components of electricity economics. This paper discusses the production functions with electricity, a core principle of electricity demand economics. In this paper, production functions with electricity are introduced at the firm level, sectoral level, industrial level, and national level. This paper also discusses integrated resource strategic planning (IRSP). As a part of electricity supply economics, it is a useful tool for policy study on low-carbon electricity. During the national economic development, low-carbon electricity can be recognised as the IRSP and the implementation of smart grid. The low-carbon electricity would be a great roadmap to Pakistan’s economic development. Pakistan’s economy is in an early phase of industrialisation. China’s economy is in the late phase of industrialisation. Experiences and lessons from China’s economic development would provide references to Pakistan. Keywords: Electricity Economics, Production Functions with Electricity, Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (IRSP), Low-carbon Electricity, Pakistan, China

Study on Integrated Resource Strategic Planning for Power Industry

Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (IRSP) is an extension of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) at the national level for power planning. It provides a new theoretical foundation for the implementation of demand-side management (DSM) in the deregulated conditions. In this paper, IRSP model for power planning is proposed. In the model, both supply-side and demand-side resources as efficient power plant (EPP) are considered in the optimization process. A case study for the power planning in the United States is presented in the paper. The results indicate that, comparing with traditional planning the IRSP model can not only achieve the minimum total costs, but also reduce the supply-side capacity installation and the related pollution emissions.

Analysis for Theory of Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Based of Power Balance between Supply and Demand

First this paper analyzes China electric power market price regulation and power supply enterprises’ decision-making behaviors, and then carries on comparative analysis about integrated resource planning theory and integrated resource strategic thought under demand balance angle. The results show that integrated resource planning can reduce the power demand and optimize resource allocation, but integrated resource strategic planning under the demand side management has better effect, also can realize the whole society power resources optimal allocation.

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO 2 emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO 2 emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.

Integrated resource strategic planning in China

Many governments around the world are focusing on emissions reduction through energy efficiency improvements, particularly on the demand side. Although Integrated Resource Planning (IRP), which considers both supply-side and demand-side options, had been a useful tool in the planning process for the power industry, its effectiveness has been challenged recently with the restructuring of the power sector that has occurred in China and elsewhere around the world. The paper proposes Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (IRSP) as an alternative to IRP in a deregulated power sector. IRSP takes the resource planning process one step further to the national level. In this paper, the authors demonstrate the tremendous potential for efficiency improvements on both the supply and demand sides of the power sector in China with IRSP. The results show that between 2009 and 2020, the potential for electricity savings will reach about 1228.5 TWh, and the potential reduction in carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions will be about 1020.5 million tons. Another important finding of this study is that the current market-based pricing system in China should be improved to provide sufficient incentives for pursuing energy savings on the demand side.

Integrated resource strategic planning: Case study of energy efficiency in the Chinese power sector

In the last quarter of the 20th century, many power companies used the integrated resource planning (IRP) approach in power expansion planning. Today, very few power companies use this approach because of the split between the power generation and distribution activities. It seems that, in some countries, long-term power system expansion planning has become a task of the central government. To help the government in this area, this paper proposes a new approach called the integrated resource strategic planning (IRSP). When combined with a smart grid, this approach can replace the IRP for the government’s power sector expansion. This paper introduces the necessity and possibility of using this new approach, presents a framework on how to use the approach, and justifies the effectiveness of this approach against the traditional power planning approach, with a case study in China. This paper concludes that if China follows the IRSP approach, it may be able to avoid or postpone up to 69 GW of power generation in the period 2009–2015. These measures could help mitigate 201.8 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2), 0.816 million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO 2), and 0.946 million tons of nitrogen oxide (NO x).