Input-output Tables Research Articles

The Role of the Forest Recreation Industry in China’s National Economy: An Input–Output Analysis

Forest recreation not only enables directly creates impacts on the entire tourism industry but also indirectly creates effects on other industries composed in an economic system via inter-industrial interdependence, such as backward and forward linkages or interactions. However, due to the lack of data available, few studies have been made exclusively for evaluating the impacts of forest recreation on the economy in a national dimension. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the economic impacts of the forest recreation industry. Using an input–output modeling approach, the industrial linkage and a cluster of economic multipliers are estimated based on new input–output tables for 2012, 2017, and 2018 that includes the forest recreation industry. The results indicate that, first, both the forward and backward linkages caused by forest recreation show rising trends over the analysis periods and the backward linkages are stronger than forward linkages. Second, the economic contribution of forest recreation has been strengthened, although the multipliers have shown a downward trend. The total output impact in 2018 is calculated to be $838.187 billion, with a total added impact of $352.713 billion. Furthermore, forest recreation could create over 18 million jobs with an average annual growth rate of 15.73%, which are mainly in the catering, accommodation, and retail industries with low skill requirements. Finally, policy applications are proposed to provide reliable and useful information for future planning and investment decision associated with the forestry and ecotourism industry.

Characters, comparisons and explications of China's domestic environmental cost of agricultural exports from the perspective of global value chain

In the context of global value chain, this paper uses world input-output table (2016) and CO2 emission data to analyze domestic environmental cost of agricultural exports based on backward linkage MRIO model. The results show that average domestic value-added and domestic embodied emissions of China's agricultural export are respectively ranked 7th and 4th in the world during the sample period, which indicates that China's agriculture does not perform well in environmental cost; On the bright side, China's domestic environmental cost displays a downward trend over time. In terms of contributing factors, CO2 emission coefficient is conducive to the reduction of domestic environmental cost, meanwhile the value-added coefficient, intermediate input structure, and agricultural export structure promote the increase of domestic environmental cost. Further, the cross-country decomposition results found that the emission coefficient and the intermediate input structure are the main reasons that lead China's domestic environmental cost to be higher than those of the main agricultural export countries. The value-added factor and the export structure have narrowed the gap of domestic environmental cost between China and other major agricultural economies. The research findings are still robust when scenario analysis is introduced. This study suggests that optimizing the structure of energy consumption and promoting cleaner production are most important ways to promote the sustainable development of China's agricultural exports.

Does the Participation Degree in Global Value Chains Influence Carbon Emission Transfer Through International Trade in Belt and Road Countries?

Studying the impact of global value chains’ (GVCs) participation degrees on carbon emission transfer through international trade (CTIT) in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies is of great significance because these economies are significant participants of GVCs and international trade. The current study, through the inter-regional Input-Output table, calculated the GVCs’ participation degrees (forward and backward participation) and CTIT (carbon emission transfer through export (ETET) and emission transfer through import [ETIT] trade) of 27 BRI economies from 2005 to 2018 and investigated the impact of the GVCs on CTIT. Several test results illustrated that endogenous issues did not affect the robustness of study discussions. The study articulates appropriate environmental governance policies that could realise emissions reduction goals. Significant results are (a) participation degree in GVCs increases the CTIT in BRI; (b) energy intensity, energy structure, final demand and secondary industry escalate CTIT; (c) the optimisations of participation degree in GVCs, energy intensity development, industrial structure optimisation and increased awareness of emission lessening among the BRI community could compensate for the growth in CTIT from the constant deepening of GVCs. This study delivers a comprehensive insight into understanding the driving forces that cause the changes in CTIT from the GVCs’ perspective. JEL Codes: F02, F18, Q56

Overdue taxdebt in Greece

Accumulation of overdue tax debts has been a thorn in the side of Greek fiscal policy in the past two decades. The dramatic accumulation of tax debts during the crisis of 2008 called for urgent reforms and measures to tackle the problem. Under the pressure of three Economic Adjustment Programmes, the MOU governments embarked on an effort to reform Greek Tax Administration, with emphasis on independence, depoliticization and wider digital transformation. This has been a slow process yet to be completed and the strains to the system introduced by the ongoing health crisis, make the need for reform even more urgent. The present paper puts overdue tax debts into perspective, analyzes the process of accumulation and brings out its main features, assesses the efficiency of Tax Administration and comes up with several policy recommendations. After we profile overdue debts stock and its characteristics, we compile an input-output table, which leads us to the composition of a series of indicators, which help assess the efficiency of tax administration in the context of the fiscal policies of the last two decades. The results of the research indicate poor quality of debts accumulated over time, as well as low efficiency of the Tax Administration, but with some improvement in recent years.

Analysis of Carbon Emissions Embodied in the Provincial Trade of China Based on an Input–Output Model and k-Means Algorithm

National or regional carbon emissions are generally accounted for by the principle of “producer responsibility”, which ignores the embodied carbon emissions implied in product consumption via inter-regional trade. Therefore, it is necessary to include the embodied carbon emissions into the product consumption regions for overall calculation. As an example, this paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s domestic regional carbon flow network based on a multiregional input–output table and carbon emission data, identifying three clusters of carbon emission characteristic regions by k-means—the clustering algorithm of machine learning. The research results show that some provinces—such as Beijing, Zhejiang, and Guangdong—are the net input areas of embodied carbon emissions (“consumers”), consuming products and services produced by “producers” such as Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia through trade, implicitly transferring the responsibility for carbon emissions. Accounting for carbon emissions worldwide/countrywide should consider both production responsibility and trade income. Our findings provide a novel national or regional classification approach based on embodied carbon emissions, which calls for an equitable regional distribution system of carbon emission rights. Meantime, inter-regional cooperation is of great significance in achieving carbon neutrality. In particular, the economically developed regions need to offer assistance to improve the energy efficiency or optimize the energy structure in less developed regions, by means of capital investment and technology transformation.

Goodness Test of Adaptability to Model of Technical Changes and Test of Forecasting Accuracy

The technical coefficient input-output as an element of the technical coefficient matrix (A) is estimated to have good forecasts for the next several periods . By substituting the final demand (F) for the period into the Input Output (IO) model in the equation the total output for the period will be obtained from the forecasting results. The total output of forecasting results is then compared with the actual total output to see the magnitude of the deviation. In the regression equation, the coefficient of determination is a measure of “goodness of fit” which states how well the regression line explains the independent variable with the dependent variable. The test is carried out by regressing the technical coefficient of input-output in the year against the technical coefficient in the nth year in a simple linear regression equation . This test was conducted to see the validity of the technical coefficients in forecasting the IO model. This research is an empirical study that uses data from the Jambi Province Input Output Tables in 1998, 2007 and 2016, each of which has been collected in a common set to see the comparability between observation periods. The results show that the technical change model is quite well used for forecasting according to the assumption that the technical coefficient level is constant during the planning period. Meanwhile, the estimated output deviation tends to be higher than that of the actual data.

Multiplier Effects of Tourism Sector in Yogyakarta: Input-Output Analysis

In the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY), the tourism sector contributes roughly to 34% of the total output, either directly or indirectly. Because of the enormous potential of tourism in boosting the economy, the local government was encouraged to adopt plans and programs so that the tourism sector's long-term viability can influence the development of other sectors. This study aims to describe the economic multiplier effects of tourism industry operations. An examination of the input-output table of 35 sectors in the Special Region of Yogyakarta in 2015 was carried out in this study. An examination of output, income, gross value added, and labor linkage and multipliers was made from an input-output analysis. The hotel and restaurant industry, as well as air transport, is considered as the key sector in the linkage study (forward and backward linkage). The sector with the biggest employment absorption, according to the multiplier analysis, is trade.

Analisis Peran Sektor Pertambangan dalam Pembangunan Regional Berkelanjutan di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan dengan Menerapkan Pendekatan Analisis Model Input-Ouput

Sustainable regional development aims to increase regional competitiveness, increase economic growth, reduce regional inequality, and improve people's lives. South Sumatra Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia with excellent coal mining potential and can encourage sustainable regional development. The development of a sector cannot be separated from the support of other sectors, so optimizing the allocation of routine and development budgets into the economic sector is essential. For this reason, it is necessary to calculate the output impact analysis and analysis of the impact of gross value added on government expenditure using the input-output model. The calculation through this input-output model shows how much influence the increase or decrease in output and gross value added has on government expenditure. The role of the coal mining sector with other sectors and the condition of its existence in the economy need to be studied using the input-output table to determine the part of the mining sector in the regional economy. It can be concluded that the coal mining sector is still one of the leading sectors in economic growth in South Sumatra Province.

IMPACT OF TOBACCO EXCISE ON SECTORAL OUTPUT AND GROSS INCOME OF INDONESIA : AN APPLICATION OF INPUT OUTPUT ANALYSIS

(Excise on Tobacco Products (CHT) as the largest contributor to the Indonesian economy when compared to other excisable goods reaches 96% so it is considered quite effective to improve the country's economy. CHT has increased every year with the aim of controlling the negative impact of cigarette consumption and relaxing the success of the High Risk Excise Control (PBHT) in eradicating illegal cigarettes. This study aims to analyze the impact of the CHT increase on sectoral output and Gross Domestic Product. The method of analysis in this study is Input-Output using the 2010 IO table (updated in 2019). The classification of the Input Output table is 185 sectors and aggregated into 21 sectors. The analysis in this study is multiplier analysis, distribution and linkage. The result is that the increase in CHT on the tobacco product processing industry has no impact on the national economy as a whole, so it is better for the CHT increase regulation to remain in effect. The government must supervise related parties in the production of the cigarette industry so that fraud does not occur if the CHT increase is still in effect.

Agricultural Total Water Consumption Coefficient and Its Spatial Correlation Network in Yangtze River Economic Belt

Agriculture contributes extensively to the economic development of countries; however, it is one of the main water-consuming industries. Revealing the characteristics and network structure of agricultural water use efficiency (AWUE) is conducive to green and coordinated development of agriculture. Considering that analyzing the variation of AWUE is helpful to calculating the AWUE, this study aims to calculate the total water consumption coefficient of the agricultural sector in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) by using the China interregional input-output tables in 2012 and 2017. The gravity model was modified to deduce the spatial correlation network of agricultural total water consumption coefficient (ATWCC), and the social network analysis method was used to analyze the network structural characteristics. The results show that: (1) compared to 2012, the AWUE of YEB in 2017 improved, with a decrease of ATWCC from 532.5 to 387.5 m3/10,000-yuan, account for 27.2%; (2) The network relevance of ATWCC of YEB’s 11 provinces (cities) enhanced, the rank relationship within the network and the network structure was relatively stable; (3) The spatial correlation network formed several network centers, Zhejiang and Jiangsu in the eastern coastal area were the main destinations of the spatial spillover of the spatial correlation network.

CO2 emissions and global value chains indicators:new evidence for 1995–2018

Globalization and the configuration of production processes around Global Value Chains (GVCs) have become key factors for explaining the recent evolution of environmental and economic indicators. Indeed, previous research found evidence on the significant impact of GVCs indicators (participation and position) on CO2 emissions. Additionally, results obtained in previous literature vary depending on the time period and geographical areas considered. In this context, the main aims of this paper are to analyze the role the GVCs in explaining the evolution of CO2 emissions, and to identify possible structural breaks. This study uses the Multiregional Input-Output framework to calculate a position indicator and two different measures of participation in GVCs (interpreted either as trade openness or international competitiveness). The analysis useS Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO) as main database, which includes 66 countries and 45 industries and covers the period 1995–2018. It is first concluded that upstream positions in GVCs are associated to lower global emissions. Additionally, the effect of participation depends on the measure used: trade openness is linked to lower emissions, while a higher competitiveness in international trade leads to higher emissions. Finally, two structural breaks are identified in 2002 and 2008, revealing that position is significant in the two first subperiods, while participation becomes significant from 2002 onwards. Thus, policies to mitigate CO2 emissions might to be different before and after 2008: currently, reductions in emissions can be achieved by increasing value-added embodied in trade while decreasing the volume of transactions.

Evaluating economic impacts of protected areas in contexts with limited data; the case of three national parks in Iceland

Economic impacts of protected areas (PAs) are receiving more attention in recent years and methodology in this area is advancing. Multiple studies have illustrated that PAs are a potent land use strategy to generate multiple and direct economic benefits. These benefits are driven by tourism as the central economic activity in PAs worldwide. This study takes the case of Snæfellsjökull, Vatnajökull and þingvellir National Parks (NPs) in Iceland, characterized by limited regional economic data and multi-destination and -purpose visitor travel patterns. Its main objective is to advance understanding of the economic impacts related to PAs in the context of limited data availability. Our analysis is based on the widely used Money Generation Model (MGM2) -methodology, localized to the Icelandic context by using Icelandic labour data and national input-output (I–O) tables regionalized using the Flegg Location Quotient (FLQ). We provide a consistent approach for handling multi-destination and -purpose trips, and separating spending data between local and overall impacts. Based on 2019 visitor and economic data, the visitors (N = 2087) spent, on average, $113 per day in the parks and generated estimated total economic impacts between $30–99 MM with 347–1140 jobs generated across the study sites. For example, in Vatnajökull NP's southern region, the jobs supported locally by the park constituted 36% of all the jobs in the municipalities. Combined tax revenue to the state from the three parks was $88 MM. The localized methodology generated similar economic impacts as earlier studies but showed that employment impacts were previously overestimated by the default models. Our approach and findings can be used as a reference for others applying the MGM2 or similar methods, and they support policy development, decision-making and informed discussion between researchers, practitioners in PA and tourism management, municipalities and communities around PAs. Being able to show economic impacts is increasingly important for PAs to ensure sustained funding amid budget cuts and the transition of government bodies to business units. Limitations of the study include a lack of winter data for Vatnajökull and þingvellir NPs and broad categorization of the Icelandic economic data used in the I–O table regionalization. In further research, a comprehensive sustainability analysis is needed to complement the economic impact analysis and site-specific factors could be analysed in more detail.

Economic and environmental impacts of agricultural non-tariff measures: evidence based on ad valorem equivalent estimates

Non-tariff measures as hidden barriers to agricultural trade would not only result in production and welfare distortions due to the international relocation of activities along the agricultural value chain, but also yield subsequent consequences to both the scale and distribution of carbon emissions from the agri-food system. This paper estimates ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures using a gravity model in combination with detailed bilateral trade data of 2001-2019, and incorporates the estimations in the Global Trade Analysis Project model and a multi-regional input-output table of Eora26 to quantify economic and environmental impacts of non-tariff measures. We show that while tariff equivalents are on average positive for all types of non-tariff measures, there are substantial heterogeneities across countries and products. The extra trade barriers imposed by these measures would increase the scale of domestic agriculture-related sectors for most agriculture importing countries, and vice versa for major exporters. Meanwhile, they would reduce the global welfare at amount of 16 millions US dollars on average and in particular, the welfare of key imposers and targeting markets of non-tariff measures. Carbon emissions from the agri-food system tend to increase about 1% around the world, especially due to the larger food processing industry in developed countries. Our paper confirms that non-tariff measures lead to both welfare distortions and carbon emissions in the agri-food system. It thus calls for urgent needs to promote further reforms of the agricultural trade regime and the policy coordination across countries to facilitate agri-food system transformation with more integration and sustainability.

A Comparative Analysis of Spillover Effects on Surrounding Cities of Beijing And Shanghai

Industrial linkage is the key channel for spillover effect, and improving the spillover effect of central cities is an important task to realize the coordinated development of regional economy. From the perspective of industrial linkages, this paper uses the 2017 China's Inter-city input-output table to build a three regional input-output model to compared with the two-way overflow between Beijing and surrounding cities and the two-way overflow between Shanghai and its surrounding cities. The research findings are as follows: 1. Central cities and cities with higher economic development level have higher two-way spillovers, and the two-way spillover effect between Beijing and surrounding cities is smaller than that between Shanghai and surrounding cities; 2. There is an imbalance between central cities and surrounding cities in value-added gains. Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Yangtze River Delta present different situations. The share of spillover effects in GDP of surrounding cities to Beijing is generally small, and Beijing's value-added spillover to surrounding cities is greater than that of surrounding cities to Beijing. The share of spillover effects in GDP of surrounding cities to Shanghahi is generally high, and most of the surrounding cities' value-added spillovers to Shanghai are greater than Shanghai's value-added spillovers to the surrounding cities. 3. In terms of industry, Beijing and Shanghai have the largest added value spillover in the tertiary sector, followed by the secondary industry, and the value-added spillover of the primary industry is the smallest; From the perspective of 42 industry sectors, Beijing and Shanghai are relatively consistent in industries with large spillover effects on surrounding cities, which are the dominant industries of Beijing and Shanghai, and are concentrated in the secondary and tertiary industries. 4. Compare the value-added spillover effect of Shanghai and Beijing on urban agglomeration as a whole. The per capita spillover effect of Beijing on Beijing Tianjin Hebei is smaller than that of Shanghai on the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, according to the research conclusions, starting from the regional industrial advantages, it provides relevant policy recommendations for regional development and promoting the high-quality development of regional integration.

An interprovincial input–output database distinguishing firm ownership in China from 1997 to 2017

Input-Output (IO) data describing supply-demand relationships between buyers and sellers for goods and services within an economy have been used not only in economics but also in scientific, environmental, and interdisciplinary research. However, most conventional IO data are highly aggregated, resulting in challenges for researchers and practitioners who face complex issues in large countries such as China, where firms within the same IO sector may have significant differences in technologies across subnational regions and different ownerships. This paper is the first attempt to compile China’s interprovincial IO (IPIO) tables with separate information for mainland China-, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan-, and foreign-owned firms inside each province/industry pair. To do this, we collect relevant Chinese economic census data, firm surveys, product level Custom trade statistics, and firm value-added tax invoices and consistently integrate them into a 42-sector, 31-province IO account covering 5 benchmark years between 1997–2017. This work provides a solid foundation for a diverse range of innovative IO-based research in which firm heterogeneity information about location and ownership matters.

Interregional industrial transfer, industrial correlation spillover, and productivity: evidence from China’s textile industry

ABSTRACT This paper studies the knowledge spillover effect through industrial correlation in the process of interregional textile industry transfer and its effects on the TFP of China’s textile industry. The paper calculates the industrial similarity coefficients of subdivided industries with the textile industry and identifies the related industries of China’s textile industry by using the data of China’s input-output table and extension tables from 2002 to 2017. Then, the paper defines the industrial correlation spillover as the weighted sum of the indirect R&D investment of one industry from its related industries and constructs a quantitative method to qualify the industrial correlation spillover. Furthermore, the paper makes two empirical analyses on the existence of industrial correlation spillover in the interregional industrial transfer and its effects on productivity using the panel data of two-digit subdivided industries in 30 provinces. The results show that the correlation spillover effect does exist and promotes the interregional textile industry transfer from the eastern coastal region to the central and the northern-coastal regions; the correlation spillover from the related tertiary industries in industrial transfer promotes the TFP of China’s textile industry, but the correlation spillover from the related secondary industries impedes the TFP of the textile industry.

Analisis Keterkaitan Antar Sektor dan Antar Provinsi dalam Perekonomian Kalimantan Tengah Tahun 2016 (Analisis IO dan IRIO)

Regional development does not only rely on the contribution of the economic sector in the region to the economy, but also the interaction of a sector with other sectors as well as inter-regional. The demand for goods and services outside the region has led to efforts to increase production so it encourage economic growth. In other words, economic development in one region is expected to trigger economic development in other regions. The purpose of this study is to determine the leading business sectors, the interrelationships between the business sectors, and the economic linkages of Central Kalimantan with other regions in Indonesia. Using the Input-Output Table (I-O) of Central Kalimantan in 2016, this study succeeded in identifying the leading business sectors in Central Kalimantan and the interrelationships between business sectors in Central Kalimantan. In addition, this study also uses the Inter-Regional Input-Output Table (IRIO) to determine economic linkages between Central Kalimantan and several provinces in Indonesia. The results showed that Iron Ore Mining is a leading sector and one of the leading business sectors in Central Kalimantan. In addition, in terms of regional linkages, it was found that changes in final demand in Central Kalimantan will have a major impact on output in DKI Jakarta, East Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan.

The Societal Impact of Inclisiran in England: Evidence From a Population Health Approach

ObjectivesAs first-in-class cholesterol-lowering small interfering ribonucleic acid, inclisiran provides effective reductions in low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol to achieve better cardiovascular (CV) health. We estimate the health and socioeconomic effects of introducing inclisiran according to a population health agreement in England. MethodsBuilding on the inclisiran cost-effectiveness model, a Markov model simulates health gains in terms of avoided CV events and CV deaths because of add-on inclisiran treatment for patients aged 50 years and older with pre-existing atherosclerotic CV disease. These are translated into socioeconomic effects, defined as societal impact. To that end, we quantify avoided productivity losses in terms of paid and unpaid work productivity and monetize them according to gross value added. Furthermore, we calculate value chain effects for paid work activities, drawing on value-added multipliers based on input-output tables. The derived value-invest ratio compares avoided productivity losses against the increased healthcare costs. ResultsOur results show that 138 647 CV events could be avoided over a period of 10 years. The resulting societal impact amounts to £8.17 billion, whereas additional healthcare costs are estimated at £7.94 billion. This translates into a value-invest ratio of 1.03. ConclusionsOur estimates demonstrate the potential health and socioeconomic value of inclisiran. Thereby, we highlight the importance to treat CVD and illustrate the impact that a large-scale intervention can have on population health and the economy.

Tracing the CO2 emissions embodied in Chinese mainland's exports with multinational enterprises: From source to sink

The production technologies and carbon intensity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) is significantly different from those of domestic enterprises (DEs). However, there are few studies have paid attention to the enterprise ownerships in tracing the carbon emissions embodied in export (CEEE). This paper constructs a new decomposition framework of total export that considering the MNEs. Based on the OECD AMNE input-output table that distinguishing DEs and MNEs from 2005 to 2016 and the related carbon emissions data, it traces the carbon emissions embodied in Chinese mainland's exports based on the value-added trade. It separates Chinese mainland's domestic carbon emissions export (DCEE) that distinguishing enterprise ownerships, analyzes its changes, and further analyzes the differences of the DCEE between DEs and MNEs from the perspective of industrial distribution and export destinations. The results show that: (1) In addition to 2016, every year more than 10.0% of Chinese mainland's carbon emissions are used to meet the demand of foreign countries or regions, and the MNEs located in Chinese mainland has produced about 6.8%–11.1% of the DCEE. (2) About two-thirds of Chinese mainland's DCEE is produced by Chinese mainland's DEs through intermediate products export, and it is mainly concentrated in the basic metals industry, other non-metallic mineral products industry and chemicals and pharmaceutical products industry. (3) In terms of the DCEE through intermediate products export, the industrial distributions of the DEs and the MNEs are similar, and they both mainly concentrate in the three industries mentioned earlier; While for the final products export, it has much difference that labor-intensive processing trade is mainly produced by the DEs. (4) In terms of the main export destination regions of the DCEE, the DEs and MNEs are very similar both for the intermediate products export and the final products export. And ROW and USA are the biggest export destinations, followed by JPN, KOR, IND, GBR, DEU, etc. The research results of this article have important research significance for promoting the achievement of China's dual carbon goals.

How China's digital technology development affects the environmental costs related to global value chains? Evidence from regional manufacturing sectors

China needs to address the environmental costs to participate in global value chains (GVCs) more sustainably. Digitalization presents a potential solution to overcome information barriers and improve energy efficiency in global production networks. However, the impact of digital technology on GVC-related carbon intensity has not been systematically studied. This paper utilizes embedded multi-regional input-output (EMRIO) tables to analyze the relationship between digital technology and GVC-related carbon intensity in China's 28 regions and 11 manufacturing sectors. The study calculates three indexes: digital technology development, the openness degree of digital technology, and the carbon intensity related to GVCs for the years 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2012. Through a fixed-effect model, the paper examines how digital technology can reduce domestic embodied carbon intensity related to GVCs in China. The findings indicate that: (1) digital technology development has a negative impact on GVC-related domestic embodied carbon intensity; (2) digital technology development indirectly reduces domestic embodied carbon intensity by decreasing energy consumption intensity and increasing foreign services' input intensity; (3) enhancing the openness of digital technology in China can strengthen the reduction effect of digital technology development on the environmental cost related to GVCs.