Inflations Research Articles

Second-Round Effects of Energy Inflation in Manufacturing Sector: An Evidence for Pakistan

Second-Round Effects of Energy Inflation in Manufacturing Sector: An Evidence for Pakistan

Minimum Wage, Inflation, Interest Rate and Household Consumption In Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of minimum wages, inflation, and lending rates on household consumption in Indonesia. The variables in this study are minimum wage, inflation, and lending rates as independent variables, while the household consumption variable is the dependent variable. The research period is from 1993-2023. The data analysis technique used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) panel. The results of this study indicate that the province that is able to become a leading indicator for the stability of household consumption is North Sumatra. When viewed from the short run and long run, the Minimum Wage variable has an insignificant effect on Household Consumption in the short term but has a significant effect on Household Consumption in the long term. Inflation variable has a significant effect on Household Consumption in the short run, while in the long run Inflation variable has an insignificant effect on Household Consumption. The loan interest rate variable has no significant effect on household consumption in the short term or in the long term.

MARITAL ECONOMICS: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND AGE OF FIRST MARRIAGE AMONG INDONESIAN YOUTH

Economic factors, including inflation, have long been recognized as significant determinants of marital patterns and decisions. Previous studies have shown mixed results on how economic instability and inflation affect marriage rates, with some findings indicating a deterrent effect due to increased economic uncertainty, while others show varying impacts across different regions and timeframes. However, existing literature often lacks contemporary analysis within specific geographical contexts, such as Indonesia, and does not extensively explore the compounded annual effects of inflation on marriage rates. This study addresses these gaps by examining the relationship between compounded inflation rates and the age of first marriage among Indonesian youth from 2019 to 2023. Utilizing national and subgroup data from the “Statistik Pemuda Indonesia” dataset provided by the Central Agency of Statistics (BPS), including distinctions by gender, rural vs. urban settings, and expense groups, this paper provides a nuanced analysis of how recent economic conditions influence marital decisions. The results of the Shapiro-Wilk test conducted across the dataset are mixed. Due to this inconsistency, the use of the Spearman Rank Correlation and Pearson Correlation is justified. The results reveal significant variances in how different demographic segments react to economic pressures, thereby enriching our understanding of the economic factors driving marital choices in contemporary Indonesian society. Through this analysis, the study contributes to the broader discourse on marital economics by integrating localized economic metrics with demographic behavioral patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers and social scientists.

Determining the Phillips Curve and Okun's Law in Indonesia

This research aims to analyze the direct effect of inflation on growth, the direct effect of inflation on unemployment, the direct impact of economic growth on unemployment, and the indirect effect of inflation on unemployment through economic growth as an intervening variable. The analysis uses data from 34 provinces in Indonesia spanning the period from 2014 to 2022, utilizing Eviews for statistical processing. The Fixed Effects Model (FEM) was selected for Model 1, while the Random Effects Model (REM) was chosen for Model 2. This research found that inflation has a direct positive and significant effect on economic growth, inflation has a direct positive and significant impact on economic growth, economic growth has a direct negative and significant effect on unemployment, and indirectly, inflation has a negative and significant impact on unemployment when mediated by economic growth. The effect of inflation on unemployment, both directly and indirectly, follows the Phillips Curve, and the impact of economic growth on unemployment follows Okun's Law.

The Effect Of Inflation, Interest Rates And Capital Structure On Share Prices In Manufacturing Companies (Food And Beverage Sub-Sector Listed On The Indonesian Stock Exchange For The 2019-2022 Period)

This research aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates and capital structure on share prices in food and beverage sub-sector manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2022 period. The population obtained in the research were food and beverage sub-sector manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange for the 2019-2022 period. The research samples obtained were 36. The sample collection technique used purposive sampling. The method in this research is a quantitative method. This research uses multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS V25 software. The results of this research show that inflation and capital structure have no effect on stock prices, while interest rates have an effect on stock prices.

The Influence Of Microeconomic Factors And Macroeconomic Factors On Stock Price Volatility In KOMPAS 100 Index Companies Listed On The Indonesia Stock Exchange For The Period 2019-2022

Research Aims: This study aims to determine the effect of dividend payout ratio, firm size, leverage, earning volatility, exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate on stock price volatility in KOMPAS 100 index companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2019-2022 Design/methodology/approach: The type of data used is quantitative data sourced from secondary data. The population in this study is the KOMPAS 100 index company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019-2022 period. The technique used in this sampling is purposive sampling and 33 companies were obtained as samples in this study. The data was analyzed using multiple linear regression and calculated with SPSS Version 25 software. Research Findings: The results showed that earning volatility, inflation, and interest rates have a significant positive effect on stock price volatility. Meanwhile, firm size and exchange rate have a significant negative effect on stock price volatility. However, dividend policy proxied by the dividend payout ratio and leverage proxied by debt to equity ratio have no significant effect on stock price volatility. Therefore, companies included in the KOMPAS 100 index should optimize total assets to increase profitability, and also stabilize profits, cost efficiency both operational and non-operational and assess financial risk to minimize investment risk and to overcome the impact macroeconomic conditions, so that companies are able to control the level of stock price volatility. Theoretical Contribution/Originality : This study provides new insights into how the influence of microeconomic factors explained by dividend payout ratio, firm size, leverage, and earning volatility, as well as macroeconomic factors explained by exchange rate, inflation, and interest rate on stock price volatility. Keywords: Dividend payout ratio; Firm size; Leverage; Earning volatility; Exchange rate; Inflation ;Interest rate

The Effect of Interest and Inflation Rates on Stock Returns: Quantile Regression Analysis for Türkiye

According to financial theory, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and stock returns and prices. In the framework of the Liquidity Preference Theory, the rise in interest rates causes the money to move towards higher interest rates, so demand for stock market decreases and returns fall. The behaviour of stock prices on interest rates and inflation has been investigated by various time series analysis methods. However, in this study, the subject is handled in a different approach by using the Quantile Regression (QR) method. In the study, nominal interest rate is decomposed into real interest rate and inflation components and effects on stock prices are examined for the period January 2013 - July 2023 separately for services, financial, industrial and technology sector indices. When it comes to the impact of nominal and real interest rates on returns in QR estimates, it is seen that the service and industrial sectors differ in terms of both tail and sign. The similarities between Least Squares estimates and QR estimates are striking. However, the effect of volatility in variables on the differentiation in relationships is also an issue that should be emphasized.

Butterfly Inflationary Effects of Multiply Police Check-Points in Nigeria

Butterfly Inflationary Effects of Multiply Police Check-Points in Nigeria

Grade inflation effects of capacity expansion in higher education: a longitudinal study in undergraduate teacher education programs from 2003 to 2022

This study examined the change in the rate of graduates with high honors (>3.50) in teacher training programs and the factors affecting grade inflation and graduation GPAs over a 20-year period. In the study, the weighted grade point average of 173,232 student-teachers who had graduated from 32 teacher training institutions between 2003 and 2022 was analyzed using the random effects estimator, ANOVA, t test, and ANCOVA. The findings suggest that their grade point averages increased from 2.83 to 3.34 within this period. The highest-grade averages were found in 2012, when the number of teacher training institutions was expanded; as well as in 2021–2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the gender of the students, their university admission scores, the teaching field, the establishment year of the program, and the ratio of students per faculty member were found to be important determinants of graduation GPAs. Based on our results, it can be argued that the rapid growth of teacher training programs in Türkiye has caused a decrease in quality, which has triggered an increase in grade averages. One of the most important findings supporting this idea is that programs with lower university admission scores have more students graduating with honors.

The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Unemployment on Financing of the Islamic Commercial Bank Sector in Indonesia

The Effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Unemployment on Financing of the Islamic Commercial Bank Sector in Indonesia

Effects of Inflation, Sharia Bank Financing, and Conventional Bank Credit on Gross Regional Domestic Product

Effects of Inflation, Sharia Bank Financing, and Conventional Bank Credit on Gross Regional Domestic Product

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Inflation on The Economic Growth of ASEAN Countries 2009-2020

This study aims to analyze the effect of foreign direct investment and inflation on economic growth in ASEAN countries. The analytical method used is a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression panel data method based on secondary data from foreign direct investment, inflation, and economic growth variables in 2009-2020. The analysis results show that FDI has no significant impact on the economic growth variable, and the inflation rate has a significant positive impact on the economic growth variable.

Book value and share prices: The mediating effect of inflation in Nigeria

Purpose: This study examines the nexus between book value and the share price of listed firms in the Nigerian exchange group, considering inflation as a mediating variable. Research methodology: The study used book value per share, share prices, and inflation rate as the independent, dependent, and mediating variables, respectively. The study uses regression analysis and a structural equation model for the effect and mediating effect, respectively, to analyze data collected from a company’s financial statements and the capital market for 2011-2020. Findings: The regression and structural equation model results show that book value per share has a negative and insignificant effect on share price, and inflation has a mediating effect on the relationship between book value per share and share prices. Limitations: This study was limited to book value per share, share price, and inflation rate. The scope of this study was limited to listed firms in Nigeria from 2011 to 2020. Contribution: This study contributes to the understanding of how inflation rates influence the relationship between book value per share and share prices in financial markets. By exploring the mediating effect of the inflation rate, this study sheds light on how changes in purchasing power affect the valuation metrics of companies, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts in making informed decisions amidst varying economic conditions. Moreover, this study contributes to the body of knowledge because there are limited studies in this area.

DO MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECT THE COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX?

The movement of the stock market index is a barometer of economic growth, and can be used to make investment decisions. Many factors influence the movement of a stock index, particularly from the macroeconomic perspective. This study analyzes the effects of BI rate, exchange rate, and inflation on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). This research is a quantitative descriptive study conducted on food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2018-2022 period. Sixty companies were sampled and analyzed using multiple linear regression tests. Hypothesis testing uses the R2 (coefficient of determination) test, F, and t-tests. The results show that BI and exchange rates have a partially significant effect on CSPI. Inflation did not have a significant effect on the CSPI. However, simultaneous testing showed that the three variables affected the CSPI.

The Effect of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Mutual Funds in Indonesia: A Multidimensional Analysis with VECM Approach

This study determined the short-term and long-term effects of Inflation, Indonesia crude price, and Indonesia sharia stock index on sharia mutual funds in Indonesia. This research utilized secondary data from January 2014 - December 2023 sourced from the Financial Services Authority (OJK), Central Agency on Statistics (BPS), Ministry of Energy and Mineral Sources of the Republic of Indonesia (KESDM). This study uses long run and short run VECM tests. The results show that the long-run VECM estimates indicate that the Inflation variable and the Indonesian sharia stock index have a long-term significant positive effect on Islamic mutual funds in Indonesia. While the Indonesian crude price has a long-term significant negative effect on Islamic mutual funds in Indonesia. The short run VECM estimation results show that there are no variables that affect Islamic mutual funds in Indonesia. Granger causality test reveals the causal relationship between various variables on Islamic mutual funds. The conclusions obtained can be used as a reference for potential investors in making investment decisions for the short and long term.

The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Returns of The Jakarta Islamic Index: A Panel Vector Error Correction Model Approach

Introduction: This study was conducted because there were differences in stock return trends in JII during 2016-2018, where stock return movements simultaneously decreased, but different conditions occurred in 2019-2022, where trend returns experienced different conditions between companies. This was caused by the domino effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic, which resulted in changes in Indonesia's BI Rate and Inflation. Thus, this study aims to analyze the long and short-term effects of BI Rate and Inflation on changes in the return of company shares in JII. Research Methods: This study uses the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method, secondary data in the form of a Panel of Stock Return of 4 companies, BI Rate and Inflation during 2016-2022. Results: The long and short-term results in the previous two and three-quarters of the BI Rate were significantly positive for stock returns. While in the long and short term, inflation was significantly negative for stock returns. Conclusion: The research found that the BI Rate does not always negatively affect return. When the BI Rate increases, it gives investors confidence that the value of their investment is protected from depreciation. This can create a positive environment for the stock market so that it has an impact on rising stock prices.

Impact of uncertainty on the performance of banking issuer shares 2018-2022

The aim of this research is to determine the effect of inflation and interest rates on stock prices with the profitability of banking sector companies as an intervening variable for the 2018-2022 period. The approach used in this research is a quantitative approach. The research sample includes 30 banking sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2022. This research data is secondary data and was analyzed using panel regression analysis techniques. The results of this research are that inflation can have a direct impact on profitability, but interest rates do not have a direct impact on profitability. In addition, profitability directly affects stock prices. However, inflation and stock prices do not directly affect stock prices. Profitability cannot offset the impact of inflation and interest rates on share prices

An Investigation of the Determinant Factors of Indonesia Domestic Investment: An Analysis of the Q1 2010 to Q4 2018 Period

The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of inflation, credit interest rates, exchange rates, and labor on domestic investment (PMDN) in Indonesia. Using secondary time series data from government institutions such as the Investment Coordinating Board, Central Statistics Agency, and Central Bank of Indonesia, the research examined these macroeconomic variables from Q1 2010 to Q4 2018. Quantitative data analysis, including multiple regression and models such as Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), was used to determine the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The findings indicate that exchange rates and labor have a positive as well as significant impact on PMDN, while credit interest rates have a negative and significant impact. The effect of inflation on PMDN was found to be negative and insignificant. The research concludes that using the best model of E-GARCH, inflation, credit interest rates, exchange rates, and labor affect PMDN in Indonesia.

The inflationary effect of the budget deficit: does financial sector development matter?

This study aims to examine the budget deficit–inflation relationship, considering financial sector development and broad money supply as moderating and mediating variables. For this purpose, a panel data set ranging from polled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effect estimation techniques are employed. Hence, the pooled mean group estimation result reveals that the budget deficit is inflationary. In addition, GDP per capita, the effective exchange rate, financial sector development, regulatory quality, and the interaction term of the budget deficit and financial sector development are significant determinants of inflation. The study further examines the role of the broad money supply as a mediating variable in the budget deficit–inflation relationship. The structural equation model results and the mediation effect tests confirmed a partial mediation effect of the broad money supply on the budget deficit–inflation relationship. Based on the findings, it is recommended to strengthen regulatory quality, reduce broad money supply, and improve financial sector development. By doing so, we can create a more stable and efficient economy that benefits everyone in the long run.

Determining the Effects of Inflation on the Cost of Living of the Selected Residents in Barangay One, San Carlos City, Negros Occidental

This study aimed to investigate the effects of inflation on the cost of living among residents of Barangay One in San Carlos. The primary objectives of this study were to identify the impact of inflation on the purchasing power of selected residents, assess changes in lifestyle and standard of living, and raise awareness of inflation within a specific barangay. The study employed descriptive research methods, including a survey, to gather rich and detailed insights into the experiences and perspectives of residents regarding inflation’s effects on their cost of living. The findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the specific effects of inflation on the cost of living in the context of Barangay One. This research revealed the extent to which inflation influenced residents’ purchasing power, resulting in changes in lifestyle and standard of living. Moreover, the study highlights the need for increased awareness of inflation among community members and emphasizes the importance of local officials actively addressing the economic conditions of the barangay. Based on these findings, this research proposes sustainable solutions to assist Barangay One in mitigating the negative impacts of inflation. These solutions include implementing financial literacy programs and fostering community- based initiatives to enhance economic resilience.