Inflation In Transition Economies Research Articles

Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Transition Economies: A Comparative Meta-Analysis with Developed and Developing Economies

This article empirically examines the effect of central bank independence (CBI) on inflation by means of a comparative meta-analysis of studies of transition economies and of other developed and developing economies. The results of a meta-synthesis indicate that both transition and nontransition studies have successfully identified a negative relationship between CBI and inflation. Moreover, the present meta-regression analysis suggests that a series of study conditions strongly affected the empirical results concerning transition economies. The article also finds that no significant difference exists between the two types of studies in terms of either effect size or statistical significance.

Reallocation and restructuring: A generalization of the Balassa–Samuelson effect

Despite its strong theoretical position when it comes to explaining inflation in transition economies, the empirical findings of the Balassa–Samuelson (B–S) effect assign only a minor role to structural inflation – to the disappointment of analysts and policymakers. This article points to 3 theory-based contributing factors to these ‘weak’ findings and offers an alternative methodological approach. First, a short-term focus makes B–S prone to underestimating the magnitude of the productivity growth differential. Second, the conventional demand side CPI based definition of sectoral value added reduces the extent to which the productivity growth differential is passed through to inflation. Third, by ignoring the dependence between the 2 main B–S components, a further downward bias to the productivity growth pass through comes about. The key to our proposed alternative methodology centres on an endogenous relation between the productivity growth differential and sector sizes. Together with the long-run supply-side approach this allows us to capture inflation drivers that conventional B–S fails to incorporate. In our extension to the conventional B–S model a reduced productivity growth differential can be compensated by an increased productivity growth pass-through, or vice versa – with the effect of augmenting inflation pressure. Hence, the link between productivity growth differentials and the dynamics of structural inflation is shown to be more complex than previously assumed.

How did structural reform influence inflation in transition economies?

This paper empirically examines the contribution of structural reforms to reducing inflation using a panel data-set of 25 transition economies. Two econometric methodologies are applied. First, the Blundell and Bond (1998) estimator for panel data incorporating lags of the dependent variable. Second, a panel logit estimator is employed to consider the likelihood of achieving low inflation. Results highlight the importance of price and trade liberalization and the reform of credit allocation for reducing inflation, the latter being especially important for bringing inflation below 10%.

Catching-Up and Inflation in Transition Economies: The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Revisited

This paper estimates the Balassa-Samuelson effects for 11 countries in central and eastern Europe on a disaggregated set of quarterly data covering the period from the mid-1990s to the first quarter of 2008. The Balassa-Samuelson effects are clearly present and explain around 24% of inflation differentials vis-a-vis the euro area (about 1.2 percentage points on average); and around 84% of domestic relative price differentials between non-tradables and tradables; or about 16% of total domestic inflation (about 1.1 percentage points on average). The paper presents mixed evidence on whether the Balassa-Samuelson effects have declined since 2001 compared with the second half of the 1990s.

Monetary Convergence of the EU Candidates to the Euro: A Theoretical Framework and Policy Implications

A flexible approach to direct inflation targeting is a viable monetary policy choice for transition economies that is believed to facilitate both the economic transition and the monetary convergence to the euro. Following this assumption, an analytical model investigating the link between the inflation process and monetary variables in transition economies is advanced in this study. The empirical testing is conducted for Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The analysis recommends that the monetary convergence begins with inflation targeting and concludes with a full-fledged euroization. It further advocates the application of flexible benchmarks of monetary convergence that would accommodate various non-monetary factors affecting inflation in transition economies.

Some Benefits of Reducing Inflation in Transition Economies

We apply Feldstein’s (1997, 1999) analysis of the interactions between the tax system and inflation to two transition economies: Poland and Ukraine. We find that the tax-related costs of inflation in these countries are significantly smaller than in mature market economies. Our analysis points out that the tax system in these two transition economies is superior to the tax system in developed market economies, as taxes on investment income are lower. It implies that transition countries should avoid replicating other tax systems and, instead, take advantage of the unique opportunity to design and entrench the features of their tax system which are superior to those in mature economies.

Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies—an international perspective

This paper develops extensive new indices of legal independence (central bank independence (CBI)) for new central banks (CBs) in 26 former socialist economies. The indices reveal that CB reform in the FSE during the 1990s has been quite ambitious. In spite of large price shocks, reformers in those countries chose to create CBs with levels of legal independence that are substantially higher, on average, than those of developed economies during the 1980s. The evidence in the paper shows that CBI is unrelated to inflation during the early stages of liberalization. But for sufficiently high and sustained levels of liberalization, and controlling for other variables, legal CBI and inflation are significantly and negatively related. These findings are consistent with the view that even high CBI cannot contain the initial powerful inflationary impact of price decontrols. But once the process of liberalization has gathered sufficient momentum legal independence becomes effective in reducing inflation. The paper also presents evidence on factors that affect the choice of CBI and examines the relation between inflation and CBI in a broader sample.

Are Wages an Important Determinant of Inflation in Slovenia?

A key issue for macroeconomic stabilization and reform programs in transition countries is whether the persistence of moderate inflation results from the traditional causes of insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from conditions peculiar to transition economies: specifically the sizable adjustment of relative prices necessary for the transition to a market-based economy. Money growth, inertia, and wage pressures play a dominant role in explaining inflation in transition economies.' Five key variables largely explain the stickiness of inflation in transition economies (IMF 1998: 241-44; IMF 1997: 106-9): -inflation inertia reflecting explicit or implicit wage indexation and the slow adjustment of inflation expectations; -wage increases that are out of line with productivity gains; -monetary growth fueled by fiscal obligations, often reflecting delayed structural reforms; -underlying pressure for an appreciation of the real exchange

Monetary accommodation in transition economies: econometric evidence from Yugoslavia's high inflation in the 1980s

A conjecture, advanced by some ad hoc evidence and the theory that money accommodates wage inflation in transition economies, is tested and accepted for Yugoslavia's high inflation of the 1980s. Within a cointegration framework, an overidentified long-run structure is estimated and accepted, where money is cointegrated with wages while not with prices. Furthermore, two independent common stochastic trends emerge, suggesting that aggregate supply shocks (i.e. those to wages and prices) and exchange rate shocks were driving Yugoslavia's high inflation, while the impact of money supply shocks was transitory. These results are due to the presence of soft budget constraint where money passively validated wage and price decisions, and to the Yugoslav debt and balance of payments crises in the 1980s which triggered exchange rate shocks. The results on the role of aggregate supply shocks might bear general relevance for transition economies.

Controlling inflation in transition economies: The relevance of central bank independence and the right nominal anchor

Controlling inflation is a central problem in transition economies. This paper asks under what conditions or even whether central bank independence helps in this task. The conclusion shows that merely imposing legal independence on the central bank may be ineffective or even counterproductive. It is necessary to make a monetary strategy and the responsibilities and restrictions of central bank policy transparent to the public. In addition, it is important that the right nominal anchor is selected—one that is, or is believed to be, effective and sustainable. Both monetary targeting and inflation targeting are assumed to be unsuitable for most transition countries. Instead, some kind of dynamic exchange rate targeting appears to be the most reasonable choice.

Post-stabilization inflation dynamics in Slovenia

This paper investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies. Granger causality tests and an analysis of unrestricted VAR models suggest a strong linkage between both growth in broader monetary aggregates and changes in the tolar-deutsche mark exchange rate on retail price inflation. While the growth in wages affects inflation, it appears that both changes in the exchange rate and growth in monetary aggregates provide the initial impulse. A discussion of the present money-exchange rate policy framework and its influence on inflation is also provided.

Post Stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia

This paper investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies. Granger causality tests and an analysis of unrestricted VAR models suggest a strong linkage between both growth in broader monetary aggregates and changes in the tolar–deutsche mark exchange rate on retail price inflation. While the growth in wages affects inflation, it appears that both changes in the exchange rate and growth in monetary aggregates provide the initial impulse. A discussion of the present money–exchange rate policy framework and its influence on inflation is also provided.

Post Stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia

This paper investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies. Granger causality tests and an analysis of unrestricted VAR models suggest a strong linkage between both growth in broader monetary aggregates and changes in the tolar-deutsche mark exchange rate on retail price inflation. While the growth in wages affects inflation, it appears that both changes in the exchange rate and growth in monetary aggregates provide the initial impulse. A discussion of the present money-exchange rate policy framework and its influence on inflation is also provided.

Inflation in Transition Economies: How Much? and Why?

Following very high inflation rates at the beginning of the reform process, most transition countries have succeeded in lowering their inflation to more moderate rates. Inflation rates in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union are now typically in the range of 10–60 percent. This essay examines whether a further reduction in inflation may be necessary. It concludes that low inflation may be important for achieving remonetization of the economy and sustained output growth.

Inflation in Transition Economies: How Much? And Why?

Following very high inflation rates at the beginning of the reform process, most transition countries have succeeded in lowering their inflation to more moderate rates. Inflation rates in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union are now typically in the range of 10–60 percent. This essay examines whether a further reduction in inflation may be necessary. It concludes that low inflation may be important for achieving remonetization of the economy and sustained output growth.

Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.

Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: A Comparison with Market Economies

A simple model is developed to understand inflationary pressures and stabilization in nonmarket economies. In light of the model, the paper reviews the inflation and stabilization experiences of several transition economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. These experiences are then compared to those of high inflation market economies. The paper concludes that, despite significant differences in the economic structure and institutional framework, the inflation and stabilization experiences in transition and market economies are similar in many respects. In particular, monetary accommodation and lack of fiscal discipline are critical in sustaining inflation, and exchange rate-based anchors seem more successful than money anchors in bringing down inflation. On the other hand, wage policies appear to be more critical in reigning inflation in transition economies than in market economies.

Inflation and Stabilization in Transition Economies: A Comparison with Market Economies

A simple model is developed to understand inflationary pressures and stabilization in nonmarket economies. In light of the model, the paper reviews the inflation and stabilization experiences of several transition economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. These experiences are then compared to those of high inflation market economies. The paper concludes that, despite significant differences in the economic structure and institutional framework, the inflation and stabilization experiences in transition and market economies are similar in many respects. In particular, monetary accommodation and lack of fiscal discipline are critical in sustaining inflation, and exchange rate-based anchors seem more successful than money anchors in bringing down inflation. On the other hand, wage policies appear to be more critical in reigning inflation in transition economies than in market economies.