Indus Basin Of Pakistan Research Articles

THE COMPARATIVE DEPOSITIONAL HETEROGENEITY OF MANCHHAR FORMATION (SIWALIK GROUP), SOUTHERN INDUS BASIN, PAKISTAN

Present study is carried out for detailed description, distribution and interpretation of lithofacies and textural analysis of Manchhar Formation from Gaj River, Manchhar Lake and Lal Bagh Sections of Southern Indus Basin Pakistan. Four different clastic lithofacies are identified during present study, which are conglomeratic sandstone (Gt), shale (Fm), fine to coarse grain flat bedded sandstone (Sh) and fine to coarse grain trough cross-bedded sandstone (St). These Facies suggest that Manchhar Formation is deposited in the Beach to shallow agitated water and fluvial system. Twenty-nine (29) unconsolidated loose and friable sandstone samples were selected for textural analysis. Grain-size parameters such as mean, median, standard deviation, Skewness and Kurtosis were used for transport history, mode and hydrodynamic energy condition to recognize the depositional environment. Stewart Diagram shows deltaic/wave water process takes active role under the influence of wave process. Linear discriminant functions analysis show that the fluvial environment of deposition dominates and influences shallows water and beach environment. Passega diagram reveals that transport mode was rolling and suspension by the tractive current that shows the fluvio-deltaic to deltaic wave with the influence of wave depositional environment of Miocene-Pliocene (Neogene) Manchhar Formation.

Statistical Analysis of Climate Trends and Impacts on Groundwater Sustainability in the Lower Indus Basin

Agricultural intensification is increasing global demand for water, with groundwater especially susceptible given its year-round reliability. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge exacerbate uncertainties for future access and use, especially for large aquifers across alluvial plains such as the Indus Basin of Pakistan. To generate better understanding of climate change impacts on groundwater balances in such contexts, we used MODFLOW 2005 to quantify the groundwater budget of the Northern Rohri Canal Command Area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climatic scenarios, while also taking climatic regionalisation into account. Under a baseline scenario, total annual pumping in the northern Rohri command was estimated to be 3.619 billion cubic metres (BCM), and the total net loss in storage over the simulation period from October 2010 to April 2014 was estimated at 1.244 BCM per year. By 2047, net decline in storage is projected to more than double to 2.185 per year under RCP 4.5 scenario and 2.214 under RCP 8.5. Our estimates suggest that a sustainable yield across the command area should be managed at approximately 3 ± 0.3 BCM per year to ensure sufficient adaptive reserves of groundwater for access during times of drought and inadequate surface supply, while also reducing waterlogging impacts from high watertables. This first-time estimate of sustainable yield provides irrigation system managers with an overall guide from which divisional-scale measures to achieve the goal can be identified through stakeholder engagement.

Reservoir characterization through comprehensive modeling of elastic logs prediction in heterogeneous rocks using unsupervised clustering and class-based ensemble machine learning

Geophysical reservoir characterization is a significant task in the oil and gas industry and elastic logs prediction of subsurface formations is a fundamental aspect of this process. However, elastic log prediction in a high-dimensional and complex geological environment, such as the Lower Indus Basin Pakistan, poses a significant challenge where traditional empirical methods often fail to provide competitively accurate results. Therefore, this study proposes a novel machine learning approach that combines unsupervised clustering (K-means) and ensemble-based machine learning (random forest) to improve prediction accuracy. By clustering data based on statistical similarity and ensemble algorithms to each cluster, the methodology addresses the challenges of sonic log prediction in the Lower Indus Basin (Pakistan). This approach was evaluated using real-world data, outperforming several baseline methods with a root mean square error of 98% accuracy. Its effectiveness to predict elastic log makes it a valuable tool in reservoir characterization, earthquake analysis, and geothermal energy exploration. Overall, combining this methodology with other techniques can enhance seismic data analysis and enable better decision-making in the oil and gas industry. This novel approach presents an effective solution for predicting sonic log in the Lower Indus Basin and contributes to advancements in geophysical reservoir characterization.

Depositional facies and reservoir characteristics of the Early Cretaceous Lower Goru Formation, Lower Indus Basin Pakistan: Integration of petrographic and gamma-ray log analysis

The sand intervals of the Early Cretaceous Lower Goru Formation are a conventional reservoir, generally distributed in the Middle and Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. Lithostratigraphically formation is classified into two parts; the upper parts are predominantly composed of shale, siltstone, and thin layers of alternate shale and sandstone, while the lower parts are composed of sandstone with interlayering of shale and limestone. The sandstone of the Lower Goru Formation has been further divided into A, B, C, and D sand intervals based on reservoir quality. Detailed depositional facies and reservoir characteristics are essential for the evaluation of hydrocarbon exploration and development. This paper aims to evaluate the depositional environment and reservoir characterization of the siliciclastic reservoir of the Early Cretaceous Lower Goru Formation by integrating the gamma-ray log patterns and petrographic analysis, and Scanning Electron Microscopic (SEM) analysis. Petrographic characterization of the sand intervals and Gamma-Ray log signatures were used for the interpretation of the depositional environment of the reservoir intervals. Petrographic analysis reveals that the sandstone of the Lower Goru Formation is fine-to medium-grained, well-sorted, arkose or feldspathic arenite. Primary intergranular macroporosity, secondary intragranular macropores, and Intercrystalline micropores were identified within the sandstone by the SEM analysis. The diagenetic analysis suggests that the sandstone possesses high porosity, low permeability, and has undergone significant alterations such as compaction, quartz cementation, feldspar dissolution, and clay minerals alteration. Five electrofacies are interpreted based on gamma-ray log patterns including (1) Funnel shape (FA); (2) Bell shape (FB); (3) Cylindrical shape (FC); (4) Bow shape (FD); and (5) Serrated shape (FE) patterns. The interpreted facies results reveal shoreface environment for A-sand, Tidal flat for B-sand, mixed tidal flat for C sand, Tide dominated mixed for D-sand, and transgressive shelf for E−sand. The present study will be helpful for the assessment of the reservoir quality of the Early Cretaceous Lower Goru Formation for further exploration and development in the Indus Basin of Pakistan.

Field‐scale measurements of soil physico‐chemical profiles of the Potohar region in the Indus basin of Pakistan

AbstractSoil physico‐chemical properties are important for best management practices. We measured infiltration, bulk density, texture, water retention and chemical profiles from the surface to 1.0 m and lithology to 50 m depths at 30 sites. The infiltration data were fitted to the cumulative and infiltration rate models of Philip and Horton. The same sites were used for water retention, physico‐chemical properties and lithological assessment. The cumulative models fit persistently better than their infiltration rate forms. The Horton cumulative model fitted statistically better than the corresponding Philip model. The dominant steady‐state infiltration rates were 15–30 and 30–45 mm h−1 over the entire profile. Sandy loam, loam and silt loam were the dominant soils. The percentages of sandy loam decreased, whereas silt loam increased, with depth. Water retention parameters and lithological strata were diverse and in harmony with physiography. Soil organic matter varied up to 2.5%. No sodicity or salinity was detected except in sparse saline seeps. The central tendency and extrema of the measured parameters were compatible with the literature, and the CVs of the soil hydraulic parameters were greater than those of the physical parameters. Comprehensive data are presented, which will serve as an important reference for regional and global repositories.

Catchment-Scale Drought Propagation Assessment in the Indus Basin of Pakistan Using a Combined Approach of Principal Components and Wavelet Analyses

Abstract This study aims to comprehend the propagation of meteorological drought [expressed by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)] into hydrological drought [expressed by the standardized runoff index (SRI)] using the combined application of principal component analysis (PCA) and wavelet analysis for a period of 39 years (1980–2018) in the Indus basin, Pakistan. PCA was used to calculate principal components of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow, which were used to systematically propagate drought from one catchment to another, resulting in a catchment-scale drought assessment. The systematic propagation of drought was useful in capturing the effects of local climate variability in the 27 catchments of the Indus basin. Wavelet analyses are used to calculate the variability of SPEI/SRI and propagation (analyzed with the wavelet coherence) from SPEI to SRI. The propagation time from SPEI to SRI was cross correlated. SPEI/SRI time series showed extreme/severe droughts in 16 out of the 39 years, where relatively weak apparent wet and drought events are observed at short periods (1 month) and apparent at longer periods (6 and 12 months). Propagation from SPEI to SRI is catchment specific, with most catchments showing transition in early years (1997–2003). Propagation rate is higher in the upper Indus basin (UIB) and lower Indus basin (LIB) than in the middle Indus basin (MIB), suggesting that climate plays an important role in drought development and propagation. Results also showed a shorter and longer propagation time in the UIB and LIB, respectively. This study has helped us understand the behavior of droughts at catchment scale and will therefore help in the development of drought mitigation plans in Pakistan and similar regions around the world.

Climate change adaptation strategies for sustainable water management in the Indus basin of Pakistan

Pakistan's agriculture faces water security challenges owing to insecure water supply and bad governance. The increasing food demand of the growing population and climate change vulnerability are future key threats to water sustainability. In this study, the current and future water demands as well as management strategies are evaluated for two climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the Punjab and Sindh provinces in the Indus basin of Pakistan. The RCPs are assessed for the regional climate model REMO2015, which was found to be the best-fitting model for the current situation in a preceding model comparison using Taylor diagrams. The status quo water consumption (CWRarea) is estimated to 184 km3 yr−1, consisting of 76 % blue water (freshwater from surface water and groundwater), 16 % green water (precipitation), and 8 % grey water (required to leach out the salts from the root zone). The results of the future CWRarea indicates that RCP2.6 is more vulnerable than RCP8.5 in view of water consumption as the vegetation period of crops is reduced under RCP8.5. For both pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), CWRarea increases gradually in the midterm (2031–2070) and becomes extreme at the end of the long term (2061–2090). The future CWRarea increases up to +73 % under the RCP2.6 and up to +68 % in the RCP8.5 compared to the status quo. However, the increase in CWRarea could be restrained up to −3 % compared to the status quo through the adaptation of alternative cropping patterns. The results further show that the future CWRarea under climate change could be even decreased by up to −19 % through the collective implementation of improved irrigation technologies and optimized cropping patterns.

Analyzing the seismic attributes, structural and petrophysical analyses of the Lower Goru Formation: A case study from Middle Indus Basin Pakistan

The purpose of this research is to delineate the structures of the Lower Goru Formation, investigate fluid properties, and clarify the hydrocarbon-prone areas through seismic attributes analysis. First, the acquired data was matched by the interpretation datum. Structural analysis was done by performing horizon interpretation, fault interpretation, and contour mapping on the C-Interval of the Lower Goru Formation. Hydrocarbon zones were marked with the help of attribute analysis on seismic sections and were justified by petrophysical analysis. An integrated approach such as seismic structural interpretation, seismic attribute, spectral decomposition, and petrophysical analyses was used in current research to better understand geological structure and features. This research showed that normal faults are present in the area showing negative flower structure, horst and graben, and faults oriented north-west to south-east. The contour map shows structural inclination and faults bound closure near well locations. Variance attribute and spectral decomposition attribute were used to verify horizon lineation and fault behavior. Instantaneous amplitude and instantaneous phase attributes justify hydrocarbon bearing zones, and bright spots are present on seismic sections at C–Interval of Lower Goru Formation. Petrophysical analysis of the available wells showed a number of significant hydrocarbon zones having more than 55% of hydrocarbon saturation at the C-Interval of the Lower Goru Formation. The four possible reservoir zones in Sawan-02 well, two zones in Sawan-07 well, and three zones in Sawan-09 well are identified based on well data interpretation. Based on these analyses, the area of interest has a very good reservoir potential, structural closure, and visible bright spots. The current finding of this research will be helpful for future exploration and development of the Sawan area.

Evaluation of organic matter in sakesar and patala formations in Southern and Northern potwar basin, Pakistan

The investigation of organic matter contents present in Eocene-Paleocene formations of Southern and Northern Potwar Basin, part of Upper Indus Basin Pakistan was conducted using geochemical and petrological techniques. The organic carbon content of Sakesar and Patala formations were evaluated using thirty well cutting samples from two wells, and results of both wells were compared for the first time. Patala Formation is known to be one of Potwar Basin's major petroleum bearing source rocks. Both Sakesar and Patala formations samples lie in early maturity (oil window) and peak of oil generation window for hydrocarbon generation, indicated by both vitrinite reflectance VR (%Ro) and Tmax data. Sakesar and Patala formations source rock properties shows good to very good generative potential. Sakesar Formation samples showed good TOC contents, ranging from 1.36-2.3 wt%, with 1.88 wt. % mean TOC and had HI values up to 375 mg HC/g TOC, however, Patala Formation also had good to very good TOC contents ranging from 2.65-4.2 wt% in well A and 3.1-3.9 in well B, with HI values ranging between 2.4-369 mg HC/g TOC. The samples have primarily mixed Type II/III kerogen and Type III kerogen. Results show that both formations have potential to produce hydrocarbons.

Estimation of Hydrogeological Parameters by Using Pumping, Laboratory Data, Surface Resistivity and Thiessen Technique in Lower Bari Doab (Indus Basin), Pakistan

Determination of hydrological properties of the aquifer is of fundamental importance in hydrogeological and geotechnical studies. An attempt has been made to refine the hydraulic conductivity values computed from the pumping test by utilizing the hydraulic values computed in the laboratory. This study uses hydraulic conductivity computed in the laboratory of rock samples, pumping test data in conjunction with the empirical equations, and vertical electric sounding (VES) to determine the hydraulic properties of Lower Bari Doab (LBD) in the Indus Basin of Pakistan. The utilized dataset comprises pumping test results (Kpump) from 17 water wells, hydraulic conductivity values (Klab) of different grain size subsurface lithologies, and 50 VES stations. To this end, the investigated area is divided into 17 polygons by using the Thiessen technique, and equal distribution/weight of conductivities values is assigned to 17 polygons (one polygon around each water well where pumping test is conducted). The true resistivity ranging from 20–90 ohm-m along with an average thickness of the aquifer is computed using the VES data for each polygon. A novel approach has been developed to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer by combining laboratory data and pumping test which is used to compute the other hydraulic properties. The calculated hydraulic conductivity, transmissivity, and tortuosity values of the aquifer range from 4.4 to 85.6 m/day, 674 to 8986 m2/day, and 13 to 20, respectively. The porosity ranges from 32 to 45% and the formation factor values fall in the range 4 to 12. Higher hydraulic conductivities were encountered in the southern portion of the area near the junction of the rivers, and it increases with an increase in porosity. The aquifer having T > 5700 m2/day and K > 40 m/day, yields a large quantity of water whereas the portion of an aquifer with T < 1100 m2/day and K < 13 m/day are combatively low yield aquifer. The results of the resistivity method show that the subsurface geological material, as depicted from true resistivity, is composed of layers of sand, clay, and silt mixed with gravel/sand. This study improves the understanding of the aquifer and will help in the development and management of groundwater resources in the area including the prediction of future behavior of the aquifer.

Organic geochemistry and mineralogical characterization of the Paleocene Ranikot Formation shales in selected areas of Southern Indus Basin Pakistan.

Southern Indus Basin is one of the promising regions in Pakistan as a commercially producing oil and gas perspective. The current research presents the geochemical characterization of the Ranikot Formation shales from Southern Indus Basin based on total organic carbon (TOC), Rock-Eval (RE) pyrolysis, organic petrography, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and x-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses. The average TOC of Ranikot shale is 4.6 wt. %, indicating very good hydrocarbon potential. Types III/IV kerogens were identified in Ranikot shale. The maceral data also suggest that the Type of kerogen present in Ranikot shale is dominantly Types II-III, with the minor occurrence of Type IV. The vitrinite reflectance, pyrolysis Tmax and methylphenanthrene indices values specify immature levels of the shales. The normal alkane data reflect that marine macrophyte, algae, and land plants were contributed to the organic matter of Ranikot shales. Dibenzothiophene/phenanthrene ratio (0.11), phytane/n-C18 ratio (0.53), pyrite, and glauconite elucidate that the depositional environment of the Ranikot shale is marine. The XRD analysis of the shale from the Ranikot Formation revealed that it is brittle shale and dominated by 39.5 to 50.9 wt. % quartz. The present study, integration with the US EIA report demarcated the Ranikot Formation influential horizon as a shale gas resource.

Economic and environmental impact assessment of sustainable future irrigation practices in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

Pakistan’s agriculture is characterized by insecure water supply and poor irrigation practices. We investigate the economic and environmental feasibility of alternative improved irrigation technologies (IIT) by estimating the site-specific irrigation costs, groundwater anomalies, and CO2 emissions. IIT consider different energy sources including solar power in combination with changes in the irrigation method. The status quo irrigation costs are estimated to 1301 million US$ year−1, its groundwater depletion to 6.3 mm year−1 and CO2 emissions to 4.12 million t year−1, of which 96% originate from energy consumption and 4% via bicarbonate extraction from groundwater. Irrigation costs of IIT increase with all energy sources compared to the status quo, which is mainly based on diesel engine. This is because of additional variable and fixed costs for system’s operation. Of these, subsidized electricity induces lowest costs for farmers with 63% extra costs followed by solar energy with 77%. However, groundwater depletion can even be reversed with 35% rise in groundwater levels via IIT. Solar powered irrigation can break down CO2 emissions by 81% whilst other energy sources boost emissions by up to 410%. Results suggest that there is an extremely opposing development between economic and ecological preferences, requiring stakeholders to negotiate viable trade-offs.

Impact of Floods on Groundwater—A Case Study of Chaj Doab in Indus Basin of Pakistan

Impact of Floods on Groundwater—A Case Study of Chaj Doab in Indus Basin of Pakistan

Evaluation of hydrological modeling using climatic station and gridded precipitation dataset

The conventional rainfall data estimates are relatively accurate at some points of the region. The interpolation of such type of data approximates the actual rainfield however in data scarce regions; the resulted rainfield is the rough estimate of the actual rainfall events. In data scarce regions like Indus basin Pakistan, the data obtained through remote sensing can be very useful. This research evaluates two types of gridded data i.e., European Reanalysis (ERA) interim and Japanese Reanalysis 55 years (JRA-55) along with the climatic station data for three small dams in Pakistan. Since no measured flow data is available at these dams, the nearest possible catchments where flow data is available are calibrated and the calibrated parameters of these catchments are then used in actual dams for simulating the flow from all the three types of data using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results of the comparison of gridded and rainguage precipitation shows that gridded data highly overestimates the climatic station data. Similar results were observed in the comparison of flow simulated by SWAT model. The Peak flood calculated from JRA-55 overestimates while the Era-Interim peak floods are comparable to that of climatic stations in two of the three catchments.

The Late Permian clastic–dominated carbonate shelf, Northwestern Pakistan: Implications for palaeoenvironments, palaeoclimate, and reservoir modelling

The Indus Basin of Pakistan has archived thick and laterally extensive Permian carbonates. The current study focuses on constraining the palaeoenvironments, reservoir potential, and ambient climatic conditions during the deposition of Late Permian clastic–dominated carbonates of the Chhidru Formation, Indus Basin, Pakistan. At outcrop, the unit shows laterally variable thicknesses of dominantly thick‐bedded, fossiliferous, channelized calcareous sandstone, and sandy limestone. The microscopic textural, compositional, and biotic attributes divulged four microfacies, arguing for the deposition in a range of diverse depositional environments including lagoonal to delta‐dominated middle shelf. The deposition of clastic‐rich carbonates of the Chhidru Formation on the underlying pure carbonates of the Wargal Formation hints strongly towards a sea‐level fall on the northwestern margin of the Indian Plate. The regression tightly correlates with the stratigraphic record of the adjacent continents, including South China, the Persian Gulf, and northern Gondwana regions. The abundance of detrital material indicates terrestrial influx to the basin, inhibiting the benthic activity and consequently resulting in poor microfossil content. Nevertheless, 11 age‐diagnostic foraminiferal taxa were identified, suggesting a Late Wuchiapingian to Changhsingian age. The X‐ray diffraction analysis of argillaceous horizons revealed several climate‐sensitive clay minerals. Based on the dominance of illite, palygorskite, sepiolite, and chlorite, an extremely arid and cold climate is suggested for the region during the time of deposition of the Chhidru Formation. Petrographic observations suggest reworking of sediments shed from the Indian Shield of the Aravalli system and Malani Range. The petrography, scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy revealed multiple diagenetic phases including marine, meteoric, and burial that have shaped the unit into a poor to moderate reservoir.

Temporal Analysis for Detection of Anomalies in Precipitation Patterns over a Selected Area in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

For efficient adaptation strategies, investigation of the variability in climatic data and its impact on meteorological drought is critical, particularly in semi-arid and arid regions. Innovative trend analysis (ITA), Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) tests were employed to analyze the variations in precipitation (1981–2018) on annual, seasonal and monthly scale across 12 meteorological stations over the selected areas of the lower Indus basin (LIB) of Pakistan. The reliability of the ITA method was also compared and analyzed with both MK and SSE methods for 48 seasonal precipitation times series. Annual precipitation results indicated a significant increasing trend, i.e., 2.09 mm/year, at only one station (Rahim Yar Khan (RYK)-Khanpur), with MK test statistic Zmk = 2.09 and Sen’s slope estimator β = 2.56. On a monthly scale, the maximum number of positive significant trends were noted during June, with Zmk values of 2.01 to 3.24 and β values of 1.06–3.06, while the maximum number of negative trends was found during January, February, November and December. On a seasonal scale, ITA methods showed significant increasing trends during the summer at 12 selected meteorological stations, with trend indicator (B) values ranging from 0.22 to 2.46. Moreover, performance of the ITA method was found to be consistent with both MK and SSE test results at a verified significance level. The results of the study can help to increase our understanding of the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation variability in the LIB that may be helpful in developing strategies for the proper management of water resources over the area.

THE MAJOR ELEMENTAL COMPOSITION OF MIDDLE PALEOCENE SEDIMENTS OF SOUTHERN INDUS BASIN PAKISTAN: IMPLICATION ON PROVENANCE

The current study area is a northeastern part of Karachi arc and located in Lakhi Range and also the Southeastern part of Karachi arc which is Thar Desert. Present study is focused on Bara Formation with specifically source rock study, as it could be understand that from where these detritus were being supplied, either from Indian craton or Asian plate in Middle Paleocene time. These sediments are composed of Sandstone, Shale, Coal, and Siltstone with some traces of fossils. Ninety five samples of Middle Paleocene sediments from three localities (Ranikot, Lakhra and Thar) with five stratigraphic sections have investigated for geochemical elements identification. The studied sediments have been classified as Litharenite, Sublitharenite, arkose, Sub-arkose greywacke, Iron sand, Iron shale. PIA and CIA of studied section of basin had been facing low/low to high weathering conditions in source area. The majority of samples indicate the passive margin tectonic settings. Middle Paleocene sediments of Southern Indus Basin is concluded here as the sediments had been supplied from Indian shield rocks and it can be summarized that the Indian plate was not collided with Asia plate in Middle Paleocene time (61.6-59.2 million years age) at Southern Indus Basin of Pakistan.

GEOCHEMICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE EARLY EOCENE LAKI FORMATION SHALES IN THE SELECTED REGIONS OF SOUTHERN INDUS BASIN PAKISTAN

A systematic geochemical investigation of the Laki Formation from the selected regions of Southern Indus Basin Pakistan Basin has been carried out. This paper presents the characterization of hydrocarbon potential, type of kerogen, thermal maturity, the origin of organic matter, depositional environment, and bulk mineralogy of the Laki Formation shales. The total organic carbon (TOC) content of the Laki shale ranges from 0.53 to 2.66 wt. %. The values indicate that Laki shales have fair to very good hydrocarbon potential. Type III kerogen is identified in the Laki shale based on TOC and residual potential (S2) data. Maturity parameters (Tmax & Methyl phenanthrene index) suggest that Laki shales are thermally immature for the generation of hydrocarbons. Normal alkane data and stable carbon (δ13C) isotopic value (-9.67 ‰ PDB) of the Laki shale indicates the predominantly marine origin of the organic matter. Dibenzothiophene/phenanthrene (DBT/P) ratio (0.08), Phytane (Ph)/n-C18 versus Pristane (Pr)/n-C17, and Pr/Ph versus DBT/P data suggest a marine environment of the Laki shale. The marine setting of the Laki Formation shale is further evident by coralline algae and Alveolina oblonga. X-ray diffraction (XRD) data reflect that Laki shale is brittle since it is dominated by high quartz and carbonates.

Application of regression in seasonal flow forecasting for Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan

Water managers in Pakistan need timely and accurate seasonal flow forecasts like in several areas of the world to allocate water for various kinds of water usages like canal operations for irrigation, reservoir operations, and strategies to respond to extreme cases. Various hydrological models are deployed that include University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) and snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to seasonal streamflow forecasts in Pakistan. Here, I assess the approach that employed snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature (T), precipitation (P), and February month flow (Feb) to forecasts Kharif (April–September) season with no need for intensive hydrological modeling in a skillful way for Upper Indus Basin (UIB) at Tarbela Dam. For Indus, I compare this approach results with Indus River System Authority (IRSA), UBCWM, and SRM. This approach uses multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop regression function for forecast seasonal flow volume. This regression approach provides much skillful flow forecasts that is consistent in uncertainty spread for the Indus. The regression forecast accuracy with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 7.95% with regard to statistical approach used by IRSA, UBCWM, and SRM as 10.25%, 11.05%, and 8.91%, respectively. This approach even allows improvement of 1% (volume ~ 0.6 km3) and is very simple to apply with requirement of four input data that are easy to procure or download and process. With this information in hand, a regression function can generate seasonal forecast for the authorities in Pakistan.

Organic Geochemical Evaluation of the Lower Cretaceous Sembar Formation to Identify Shale-Gas Potential from the Southern Indus Basin Pakistan

Organic Geochemical Evaluation of the Lower Cretaceous Sembar Formation to Identify Shale-Gas Potential from the Southern Indus Basin Pakistan