Individual Risk Stratification Research Articles

Lipoprotein(a) and coronary artery calcium in comparison with other lipid biomarkers: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring is often used for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]. To evaluate associations between Lp(a) and baseline CAC (volume/density) and CAC progression compared to other lipid biomarkers. We utilized data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a cohort study of individuals without clinical ASCVD, excluding statin users. We evaluated the associations between Lp(a), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and non-HDL-C with baseline CAC and annual CAC progression using multivariable ordinal regression with adjustment for ASCVD risk factors. Analyses were also stratified by median age. In 5,597 participants (2,726 at median 9.5-year follow-up), Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was modestly associated with volume progression (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.21). However, other biomarkers were positively associated with baseline volume and volume progression (LDL-C: OR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.19-1.33 and OR 1.22, 95% CI: 1.15-1.30, respectively), except HDL-C which was inversely associated. LDL-C, total cholesterol and non-HDL-C were inversely associated with baseline density. In participants <62 years of age, Lp(a) was modestly associated with baseline CAC volume (OR 1.10, 95% CI: 1.00-1.20) and volume progression (OR 1.16 95% CI: 1.04-1.30). In contrast to other lipid biomarkers, Lp(a) was not associated with baseline CAC volume or density and was only modestly associated with volume progression. Our findings suggest that Lp(a) is not as robustly associated with CAC as other lipid biomarkers.

Risk Factors of Secondary Cardiovascular Events in a Multi-Ethnic Asian Population with Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Retrospective Cohort Study from Malaysia.

This retrospective cohort study investigated the incidence and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) after 1 year of first-documented myocardial infarctions (MIs) in a multi-ethnic Asian population. Secondary MACE were observed in 231 (14.3%) individuals, including 92 (5.7%) cardiovascular-related deaths. Both histories of hypertension and diabetes were associated with secondary MACE after adjustment for age, sex, and ethnicity (HR 1.60 [95%CI 1.22-2.12] and 1.46 [95%CI 1.09-1.97], respectively). With further adjustments for traditional risk factors, individuals with conduction disturbances demonstrated higher risks of MACE: new left-bundle branch block (HR 2.86 [95%CI 1.15-6.55]), right-bundle branch block (HR 2.09 [95%CI 1.02-4.29]), and second-degree heart block (HR 2.45 [95%CI 0.59-10.16]). These associations were broadly similar across different age, sex, and ethnicity groups, although somewhat greater for history of hypertension and BMI among women versus men, for HbA1c control in individuals aged >50 years, and for LVEF ≤ 40% in those with Indian versus Chinese or Bumiputera ethnicities. Several traditional and cardiac risk factors are associated with a higher risk of secondary major adverse cardiovascular events. In addition to hypertension and diabetes, the identification of conduction disturbances in individuals with first-onset MI may be useful for the risk stratification of high-risk individuals.

Associations between indicators of new semi-quantitative express-test for procalcitonin and indicators of saturation in patients with community-acquired pneumonia

Objective. To evaluate the associations between the indicators of a new semi-quantitative express-test for procalcitonin and saturation levels in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia.&#x0D; Due to a high rate of growth of the incidence of severe community-acquired pneumonia, which leads to disability of the working population and claims thousands of lives, there is a need for early verification of the severity degree and a timely initiation of treatment. Traditional clinical, radiologic, laboratory and bacteriological criteria for inflammatory reactions (fever, increased pulmonary infiltration and leukocytosis, detection of potential pathogens in sputum or hemocultures) are not specific for pneumonia. Similar clinical and radiologic manifestations can also be noted in other pathological conditions, for example, in atelectasis of the lung, lung infarction, congestive heart failure, as well as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In this regard, the study of new diagnostic markers of community-acquired pneumonia is an actual direction in modern therapeutic diagnostics. Being a fast and highly sensitive method, the express test for procalcitonin can be a valuable predictive marker for the severe course of community-acquired pneumonia. Of interest is the relationship of procalcitonin with an indicator reflecting the presence of respiratory failure the level of saturation.&#x0D; Materials and methods. A single-stage comparative study involved 123 patients admitted to the hospital with a confirmed diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia. On the first day after admission to the hospital, all patients underwent a general clinical examination, an overview X-ray of the chest organs, and determination of the plasma procalcitonin level using a semi-quantitative express-test as well as the saturation level. According to the results of the examination, the patients were divided into two groups: patients with saturation 94 % (n=43), and patients with saturation 94 % (n=80). The group of patients with saturation values 94 % consisted of 23 (53.5 %) women and 20 (46.5 %) men. The group of patients with saturation values 94 % consisted of 42 (52.5 %) women and 38 (47.5 %) men. The mean age of the patients was 56.719.1 and 45.620.7 (MSD) years, respectively, p=0.005. Statistical processing of the obtained data was carried out using the SPSS 13.0 software package.&#x0D; Results. Patients with low saturation values ( 94 %) had higher heart rate (p=0.001) and respiratory rate (p=0.001), and the levels of erythrocytes (p=0.001), hemoglobin (p=0.003) and albumin (p=0.001) were significantly lower than in patients with higher saturation levels 94 %. For patients with signs of respiratory failure and saturation indices 94 %, a more pronounced increase in the level of express-test for procalcitonin was characteristic (p=0.001). According to regression analysis, the express-test for procalcitonin 2 ng/ml by 13.8 % (CI 1.5131.3), age by 3 %, and heart rate by 11 % increase the risk of low saturation in patients with community-acquired pneumonia.&#x0D; Conclusion. Low values of blood oxygen saturation 94 % in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia are directly associated with high values of the new semi-quantitative express-test for procalcitonin (more than 2 ng/ml), that can be used for individual risk stratification.

Mild behavioral impairment linked to phenoconversion to Alzheimer’s disease and cortical thinning in mild cognitive impairment

AbstractBackgroundMild Behavioral Impairment (MBI) is a neurobehavioral syndrome characterized by later life emergence of sustained neuropsychiatric symptoms, as an at‐risk state for dementia (Ismail Z, Alzheimers Dement, 2016). However, the associations between MBI and a risk of phenocoversion to dementia and its neuroanatomical correlates in MCI are still unclear.MethodA total 1326 older adults with MCI was followed for a mean of 3.0 ± 2.0 years. MBI was approximated using a transformation algorithm for the neuropsychiatric inventory at baseline. Two‐step cluster analysis was used to explore classes of 5 MBI domains (decreased motivation, affective dysregulation, impulse dyscontrol, social inappropriateness, abnormal perception/thought content). A Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate the association between the clusters and phenoconversion to AD. A subset of participants (n = 225) underwent 3D T1‐weighted MRI scans and cortical thickness was compared among the clusters of MBI domains.ResultThe cluster analysis identified 3 groups of participants: (1) people without MBI (47.8%, asymptomatic); (2) people with only affective dysregulation (29.3%, affective dysregulation); (3) people with relatively high probability of affective dysregulation, followed by impulse dyscontrol and affective dysregulation (22.9%, multiple domains). Compared to the asymptomatic, multiple domains was associated with a higher risk of phenoconversion to AD (hazard ratio = 2.589 [1.981 – 3.385], p = &lt; 0.001), but affective dysregulation did not predict phenoconversion (1.204 [0.896 – 1.620], p = 0.219) (Fig 1). MCI individuals with symptoms in multiple domains revealed thinning in the bilateral superior and inferior parietal, superior temporal, and prefrontal cortex, and the right precuneus compared to those with only affective dysregulation (Fig 2). We did not find differences in cortical thickness between phenocoverter and non‐phenoconverter, and interaction of clusters of MBI domains and phenoconversion.ConclusionThe multiple co‐occuring MBI domains in individuals with MCI are associated with a higher risk of phenoconversion to AD. Moreover, MCI individuals with symptoms in multiple domains revealed cortical thinning in the superior parietal and precuneus, which have suggested as AD signatures (Dickerson BC, Cereb Cortex, 2009). These results suggest that evaluation of MBI and neuroimaging characteristics could be useful for risk stratification in MCI individuals.

Biomarkers of ageing: Current state‐of‐art, challenges, and opportunities

AbstractGiven the unprecedented phenomenon of population ageing, studies have increasing captured the heterogeneity within the ageing process. In this context, the concept of “biological age” has been introduced as an integrated measure reflecting the individualized ageing pace. Identifying reliable and robust biomarkers of age is critical for the accurate risk stratification of individuals and exploration into antiageing interventions. Numerous potential biomarkers of ageing have been proposed, spanning from molecular changes and imaging characteristics to clinical phenotypes. In this review, we will start off with a discussion of the development of ageing biomarkers, then we will provide a comprehensive summary of currently identified ageing biomarkers in humans, discuss the rationale behind each biomarker and highlight their accuracy and clinical value with a contemporary perspective. Additionally, we will discuss the challenges, potential applications, and future opportunities in this field. While research on ageing biomarkers has led to significant progress and applications, further investigations are still necessary. We anticipate that future breakthroughs in this field will involve exploring potential mechanisms, developing biomarkers by combining various data sources or employing new technologies, and validating the clinical value of existing and emerging biomarkers through comprehensive collaboration and longitudinal studies.

External Validation of the FLIPI Risk Score Measured at Diagnosis and POD24 Among Individuals With Follicular Lymphoma at the Time of Subsequent Relapse

BackgroundThe Follicular lymphoma international prognostic index (FLIPI) risk score and POD24 have previously been shown to have prognostic value in follicular lymphoma (FL), but the extent to which they can inform prognosis at the time of subsequent relapse is uncertain. Patients and MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal cohort study of individuals diagnosed with FL between 2004 and 2010 in Alberta, Canada who received front-line therapy and subsequently relapsed. FLIPI covariates were measured prior to the initiation of front-line therapy. Median overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS2), and time to next treatment (TTNT2) were estimated from the time of relapse. ResultsA total of 216 individuals were included. The FLIPI risk score was highly prognostic at the time of relapse for OS (c-statistic = 0.70; HR[High vs. Low] = 7.38; 95% CI: 3.05-17.88), PFS2 (c-statistic = 0.68; HR[High vs. Low] = 5.84; 95% CI: 2.93-11.62) and TTNT2 (c-statistic = 0.68; HR[High vs. Low] = 5.72; 95% CI: 2.87-11.41). POD24 was not prognostic at the time of relapse for either OS, PFS2, or TTNT2 (c-statistic = 0.55). ConclusionThe FLIPI score measured at diagnosis may help with the risk stratification of individuals with relapsed FL.

Value of frontal QRS axis for risk stratification of individuals with prolonged PR interval.

There is ongoing controversy regarding the prognostic value of PR prolongation among individuals free of cardiovascular diseases. It is necessary to risk-stratify this population according to other electrocardiographic parameters. This study is based on the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed and Kaplan-Meier method was used. A total of 6188 participants (58.1 ± 13.1 years; 55% women) were included. The median frontal QRS axis of the entire study population was 37° (IQR: 11-60°). PR prolongation was present in 7.6% of the participants, of whom 61.2% had QRS axis ≤37°. In a multivariable-adjusted model, mortality risk was highest in the group with concomitant prolonged PR interval and QRS axis ≤37° (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.39). In models with similar adjustment where population were reclassified depending on PR prolongation and QRS axis, prolonged PR interval and QRS axis ≤37° was still associated with increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.36) compared with normal PR interval. QRS axis is an important factor for risk stratification in population with PR prolongation. The extent to which this population with PR prolongation and QRS axis ≤37° is at higher risk of death compared with the population without PR prolongation.

The prevalence and importance of frailty in cardiac resynchronization therapy patients

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): Nemzeti Kardiovaszkuláris Laboratórium RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00003. Background Frailty, characterized by loss of homeostatic reserves and increased vulnerability to physiological decompensation, results from an aggregation of insults across multiple organ systems. Frailty can be quantified by counting the number of ‘health deficits’ across a range of domains. Aims We assessed the frequency of, and outcomes related to frailty in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction who previously underwent cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) implantation. Methods We used a cumulative deficits approach to construct a 30-item frailty index (FI) and applied it to identify frail patients enrolled in our CRT registry. The 30 items were derived from medical history, other patient characteristics and laboratory results, covering a range of body systems. In keeping with previous studies, patients with FI ≤0.210 were classified as non-frail and those with higher scores were divided into two categories using score increments of 0.100. Our primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Results Among 1004 included patients, 75 (7%) were considered Non-frail, while 271 (27%) and 658 (66%) participants were categorized as Frail in groups 1- and 2. Patients in Frail group 2 were older, had a less favorable renal function, and generally had more comorbidities (i.e. atrial fibrillation, hypertension, ischemic cardiovascular disease) than patients categorized in the Non-frail or Frail group 1. During the median follow-up time of 4.4 (2.3-6.9) years, 17 (22%) patients in the Non-frail group, 103 (38%) in Frail group 1, and 479 (73%) in the Frail group 2 reached the primary endpoint. Non-frail patient group showed the most beneficial survival with a 70% (HR 0.31; 95% CI: 0.23-0.41; p&amp;lt;0.001) lower all-cause mortality risk compared to Frail group 2. Adjusting for relevant covariates, NYHA class, creatinine, and TAPSE were identified as independent predictors for all-cause mortality. Conclusion Based on our results, CRT candidates are exceedingly vulnerable with a high prevalence of frailty. The calculated frailty index was associated with the primary outcome of death from any cause. FI proved to be prevalent in individual risk stratification and can predict the outcome.

The association of cardiac troponin and cardiovascular events in patients with concomitant heart failure preserved ejection fraction and atrial fibrillation

BackgroundLimited data are available for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and combined heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We aimed to explore the prognostic utility of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) in patients with newly detected AF and concomitant HFpEF.MethodsFrom August 2014 to December 2016, 2,361 patients with newly detected AF were polled in a retrospective single-center registry. Of which, 634 patients were eligible for HFpEF diagnosis (HFA-PEFF score ≥ 5) and 165 patients were excluded with exclusion criteria. Finally, 469 patients are classified into elevated or non-elevated hs-cTnI groups based on the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL). The primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) during follow-up.ResultsIn 469 patients, 295 were stratified into the non-elevated hs-cTnI group (< 99th percentile URL of hs-cTnI) and 174 were placed in the elevated hs-cTnI group (≥ 99th percentile URL of hs-cTnI). The median follow-up period was 24.2 (interquartile range, 7.5–38.6) months. During the follow-up period, 106 patients (22.6%) in the study population experienced MACCE. In a multivariable Cox regression model, the elevated hs-cTnI group had a higher incidence of MACCE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08–2.55; p = 0.03) and coronary revascularization-caused readmission (adjusted HR, 3.86; 95% CI, 1.39–15.09; p = 0.02) compared with the non-elevated hs-cTnI group. The incidence of heart failure-caused readmission tended to occur more frequently in the elevated hs-cTnI group (8.5% versus 15.5%; adjusted HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.86–2.67; p = 0.08).ConclusionsOne-fifth of patients with AF and concomitant HFpEF experienced MACCE during follow-up, and elevated hs-cTnI was independently associated with higher risk of MACCE, as driven by heart failure and revascularization-caused readmission. This finding suggested that hs-cTnI may be a useful tool in individualized risk stratification of future cardiovascular events in patients with AF and concomitant HFpEF.

Morphology-Voltage-P-wave-duration (MVP) score to select patients for continuous atrial fibrillation screening to prevent stroke

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The LOOP Study was funded by Innovation Fund Denmark [grant number 12-1352259], The Research Foundation for the Capital Region of Denmark, The Danish Heart Foundation [grant number 11-04-R83-A3363-22625], Aalborg University Talent Management Program, Arvid Nilssons Fond, Skibsreder Per Henriksen, R og Hustrus Fond, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program [grant number 847770], Læge Sophus Carl Emil Friis og hustru Olga Doris Friis’ Legat, and an unrestricted grant from Medtronic. Background It is well known that atrial fibrillation (AF) confers a substantially increased risk of ischemic stroke, but data on health benefits from AF screening are scarce. The newly proposed MVP risk score combining the duration, voltage and morphology of P-wave has been demonstrated to be predictive of AF and might therefore also be useful in risk-stratifying individuals for AF screening and subsequent treatment. Purpose The present study sought to examine MVP risk score and its P-wave components for prediction of AF screening effects. Methods The LOOP Study randomized AF-naïve individuals aged 70-90 years with additional stroke risk factors to either continuous AF screening with implantable loop recorder (ILR) and subsequent anticoagulation initiation upon detection of AF episode ≥6 minutes, or usual care. In this secondary analysis, the LOOP participants with a baseline 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) suitable for P-wave measurement were included. Results Of 5759 participants included, 265 (4.6%) had had ischemic stroke during follow-up: 213 (4.9%) of 4311 in the control group versus 64 (3.6%) of 1448 in the ILR group. Among the participants in the control group, a significantly increased risk of ischemic stroke was observed for MVP score 5-6 versus score 0-2 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.66 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.75]) and for the presence of interatrial block (IAB) versus no IAB (HR 1.85 [95% CI: 1.19-2.86]), whereas a P-wave voltage in lead I (PWVI) &amp;lt;100 µV was associated with risk reduction compared to higher voltage (HR 0.65 [95% CI: 0.45-0.93]). Further spline analysis revealed longer P-wave duration (PWD) to also be correlated with higher stroke risk (HR 1.49 [95% CI: 1.11-2.00] for &amp;gt;110 versus ≤110 ms). Compared with usual care, ILR screening did not significantly reduce the stroke risk regardless of MVP risk score, PWD, PWVI, or IAB pattern at baseline. Conclusions In an elderly population with additional stroke risk factors, both the P-wave parameters and the combined MVP risk score based on 12-lead ECG were associated with ischemic stroke, but these did not successfully demonstrate an association with effects of AF screening on stroke prevention.

IgA nephropathy: a review of existing and emerging therapies.

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common form of primary glomerulonephritis worldwide. Recently, there have been multiple advances in the understanding of IgAN pathophysiology and therapeutic options. Despite the advent of new treatment options, individual risk stratification of the disease course and choosing the best treatment strategy for the patient remains challenging. A multitude of clinical trials is ongoing, opening multiple opportunities for enrollment. In this brief review we discuss the current approach to the management of IgAN and highlight the ongoing clinical trials.

The Role of Triglyceride-Glucose Index in the Prediction of the Development of Hypertension - Findings from a Community Cohort in Singapore.

Triglyceride-glucose index (TyGI) is an emerging surrogate marker of insulin resistance. We aim to explore the role of triglyceride-glucose index in the prediction of the development of hypertension. We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included 3,183 study participants identified from a community health screening programme who had no baseline hypertension and were then followed up after an average of 1.7 years. Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the association between risk of incident hypertension and TyGI in quartiles, while adjusting for demographics and clinical characteristics. Hypertension occurred in 363 study participants (11.4%). Those who developed hypertension had higher TyGI [8.6 (IQR 8.2-9.0)] than those who did not [8.2 (IQR 8.0-8.7)] (p<0.001). Significant association between TyGI and hypertension was observed in both the unadjusted and proportional hazard model [Quartile (Q)2, p=0.010; Q3, p<0.001 and Q4, p<0.001] and the model that adjusted for demographics (Q2, p=0.016; Q3, p=0.003; Q4, p<0.001). In the model adjusted for clinical covariates, the hazard of developing hypertension remained higher in TyGI Q4 compared to TyGI Q1(Hazard Ratio=2.57; 95% Confidence Interval: 1.71, 3.87). Increasing triglyceride-glucose index accounted for 16.4% of the association between increasing BMI and incident hypertension, after adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity and baseline HDL cholesterol (p<0.001). Triglyceride-glucose index was an independent predictor of the development of hypertension. It may potentially be used as an inexpensive indicator to predict the development of hypertension and risk-stratify individuals to aid management in clinical practice.

Analysis of Plasma Metabolic Profile on Ganglion Cell–Inner Plexiform Layer Thickness With Mortality and Common Diseases

The neural retina is considered a unique window to systemic health, but its biological link with systemic health remains unknown. To investigate the independent associations of retinal ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness (GCIPLT) metabolic profiles with rates of mortality and morbidity of common diseases. This cohort study evaluated UK Biobank participants enrolled between 2006 and 2010, and prospectively followed them up for multidisease diagnosis and mortality. Additional participants from the Guangzhou Diabetes Eye Study (GDES) underwent optical coherence tomography scanning and metabolomic profiling and were included for validation. Systematic analysis of circulating plasma metabolites to identify GCIPLT metabolic profiles; prospective associations of these profiles with mortality and morbidity of 6 common diseases with their incremental discriminative value and clinical utility. Among 93 838 community-based participants (51 182 [54.5%] women), the mean (SD) age was 56.7 (8.1) years and mean (SD) follow-up was 12.3 (0.8) years. Of 249 metabolic metrics, 37 were independently associated with GCIPLT, including 8 positive and 29 negative associations, and most were associated with the rates of future mortality and common diseases. These metabolic profiles significantly improved the models for discriminating type 2 diabetes over clinical indicators (C statistic: 0.862; 95% CI, 0.852-0.872 vs clinical indicators only, 0.803; 95% CI, 0.792-0.814; P < .001), myocardial infarction (0.792; 95% CI, 0.775-0.808 vs 0.768; 95% CI, 0.751-0.786; P < .001), heart failure (0.803; 95% CI, 0.786-0.820 vs 0.790; 95% CI, 0.773-0.807; P < .001), stroke (0.739; 95% CI, 0.714-0.764 vs 0.719; 95% CI, 0.693-0.745; P < .001), all-cause mortality (0.747; 95% CI, 0.734-0.760 vs 0.724; 95% CI, 0.711-0.738; P < .001), and cardiovascular disease mortality (0.790; 95% CI, 0.767-0.812 vs 0.763; 95% CI, 0.739-0.788; P < .001). Additionally, the potential of GCIPLT metabolic profiles for risk stratification of cardiovascular diseases were further confirmed in the GDES cohort using a different metabolomic approach. In this prospective study of multinational participants, GCIPLT-associated metabolites demonstrated the potential to inform mortality and morbidity risks. Incorporating information on these profiles may facilitate individualized risk stratification for these health outcomes.

Nomograms referenced by cardiac magnetic resonance in the prediction of cardiac injuries in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BackgroundEvaluation of cardiac injuries is essential in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) has become the gold standard for quantifying cardiac injuries; however, its routine application is limited. A nomogram is a useful tool for prognostic prediction based on the comprehensive utilization of clinical data. We presumed that the nomogram models established using CMR as a reference could precisely predict cardiac injuries. MethodsThis analysis included 584 patients with acute STEMI from a CMR registry study for STEMI (NCT03768453). The patients were divided into training (n = 408) and testing (n = 176) datasets. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method and multivariate logistic regression were used to construct nomograms for predicting left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤40%, infarction size (IS) ≥ 20% on the LV mass, and microvascular dysfunction. ResultsThe nomogram for predicting LVEF≤40%, IS≥20%, and microvascular dysfunction comprised 14, 10, and 15 predictors, respectively. With the nomograms, the individual risk probability of developing specific outcomes could be calculated, and the weight of each risk factor was demonstrated. The C-index of the nomograms in the training dataset were 0.901, 0.831, and 0.814, respectively, and were comparable in the testing set, showing good nomogram discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis demonstrated good clinical effectiveness. Online calculators were also constructed. ConclusionsWith the CMR results as the reference standard, the established nomograms demonstrated good effectiveness in predicting cardiac injuries after STEMI and could provide physicians with a new option for individual risk stratification.

Risk factors associated with safety of preschool peanut oral immunotherapy.

An understanding of how patient characteristics such as age, baseline peanut-specific IgE, and atopic comorbidities may influence potential safety outcomes during peanut oral immunotherapy (P-OIT) could aid in shared decision making between clinicians and patient families. This study explored the relationship between baseline patient characteristics and reactions during P-OIT using a large sample size to better understand potential risk factors influencing P-OIT safety. Data were obtained from the Food Allergy Immunotherapy (FAIT) registry, which collects real-world OIT data from community and academic allergy clinics across Canada. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was performed to examine the relationship between baseline patient characteristics and reactions during P-OIT. Multiple imputation was applied to reduce potential bias caused by missingness and to maximize the use of available information to preserve statistical power. Between April 2017 and June 2021, a total of 653 eligible patients initiated P-OIT. Multivariable regression analysis showed pre-OIT grade 2+ initial reaction (odds ratio [OR]= 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10, 1.61), allergic rhinitis (OR= 1.60, 95% CI 1.08, 2.38), older age (OR= 1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02), and higher baseline peanut-specific IgE (OR= 1.02, 95% CI 1.02, 1.03) were associated with grade 2+ reaction during P-OIT after adjusting for potential risk factors. Our study identified several clinically important risk factors for grade 2+ reactions during P-OIT: pre-OIT grade 2+ initial reaction, allergic rhinitis, older age, and higher baseline peanut-specific IgE. These results highlight the need for individualized risk stratification for OIT.

Asymptomatic channelopathies : Risk stratification and primary prophylaxis

In general, asymptomatic patients with channelopathies are at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), due to pathogenic variants in genes encoding ion channels that result in pathological ion currents. Channelopathies include long-QT syndrome (LQTS), Brugada syndrome (BrS), catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT), and short-QT syndrome (SQTS). In addition to the patient's clinical presentation, history and clinical tests, the main diagnostic tools are electrocardiography and genetic testing to identify known gene mutations. Early and correct diagnosis as well as further risk stratification of affected individuals and their relatives are paramount for prognosis. The recent availability of risk score calculators for LQTS and BrS allows SCD risk to be accurately estimated. The extent to which these improve patient selection for treatment with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) system is currently unknown. In most cases, initiation of basic therapy in asymptomatic patients in the form of avoidance of triggers, which are usually medication or stressful situations, is sufficient and contributes to risk reduction. In addition, there are other risk-reducing prophylactic measures, such as permanent medication with nonselective β‑ blockers (for LQTS and CPVT) or mexiletine for LQTS3. Patients and their family members should be referred to specialized outpatient clinics for individual risk stratification in the sense of primary prophylaxis.

Risk factors for recurrent disease in small papillary thyroid cancers – a Swedish register-based study

AimsTo study the correlation between clinicopathological risk factors and the risk for intervention-requiring cancer recurrence in patients with small papillary thyroid cancers (sPTCs).Materials and methodsRecords for 397 patients with sPTC (T1 ≤ 20mm) were obtained from the Scandinavian Quality Register for Thyroid, Parathyroid and Adrenal Surgery (SQRTPA) between 2010 and 2016. Follow-up time was at least 5 years. Data regarding intervention-requiring cancer recurrence were obtained from patient medical records and analysed regarding lymph node (LN) status (N0, N1a and N1b) and recurrence.ResultsAge was significantly lower in the N1a and N1b groups compared to N0 (45 vs. 40.5 vs. 49 years, respectively; p = 0.002). Tumour size was smaller in the N1a group compared to N1b group (9 vs. 11.8 mm; p <0.01). The mean number of metastatic LNs at initial surgery was higher in the N1b compared to N1a group (6.6 vs. 3; p = 0.001), and in the recurrent compared to the non-recurrent group (7 versus 3.9; p <0.01). The recurrence rate was higher in the N1b group than the N1a and N0 groups (25% vs. 2.4% vs. 1.4%, respectively; p = 0.001).ConclusionsLymph node stage N1b at diagnosis, and having five or more metastatic nodes, are strong risk factors for cancer recurrence and decreased disease-free survival in sPTC. The management of patients with sPTC should include thorough lymph node mapping for optimal treatment and individual risk stratification.

Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy (PML) With Anti-CD20 and Other Monoclonal Antibody (mAb) Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis (P8-3.016)

<h3>Objective:</h3> To review the incidence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) associated with monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies, specifically anti-CD20 medications used in multiple sclerosis (MS). <h3>Background:</h3> PML is an opportunistic and fatal inflammatory disease of the central nervous system, which occurs almost exclusively in immunocompromised hosts; therefore, patients receiving mAb immunotherapy become an at-risk population. B cell-depleting mAbs targeting CD20+ cells have become widely used in MS. Although their efficacy is well-known, their associated risk of PML, especially among those without previous disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure, has been insufficiently studied. <h3>Design/Methods:</h3> A systematic literature review of PubMed, Google Scholar, EMBASE, and Scopus was conducted by two independent researchers from June 1, 1997, to July 10, 2022. Further data was obtained from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) database and individual pharmaceutical companies (Genentech, Novartis, and TG Therapeutics). Carryover cases from prior exposure to other immunosuppressants were excluded. <h3>Results:</h3> Between 2015 and 2017, 10 cases of PML were reported in the FAERS database among 334 MS patients taking rituximab; two had previously received natalizumab, leaving eight cases in total. Rituximab-associated PML was also seen in lymphoproliferative disorders (n=52), rheumatoid arthritis (n=9), and granulomatosis with polyangiitis (n=2). Two fatal PML cases were found in MS patients taking ocrelizumab. No cases of PML were reported with ofatumumab in MS; however, 5 cases were reported in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. PML has not been observed with ublituximab, which is currently under FDA review. Among other DMTs, PML was frequently reported with natalizumab (n=884), fingolimod (n=30), dimethyl fumarate (n=12), and alemtuzumab (n=1). <h3>Conclusions:</h3> Anti-CD20 therapies are a safe class of medications with a low infectious risk for PML, especially compared to other mAbs used in MS, such as natalizumab. Nonetheless, risk stratification in susceptible individuals, as done with natalizumab, could prove beneficial with all mAb treatments. <b>Disclosure:</b> Dr. Sharma has nothing to disclose. Dr. Srivastava has nothing to disclose. Dr. JENA has nothing to disclose. Dr. Kakara has nothing to disclose. Dr. Sriwastava has nothing to disclose. Maha Daimee has nothing to disclose. Dr. Xu has nothing to disclose.

Polygenic score: An anchor holding the whole life course.

Polygenic score: An anchor holding the whole life course.

Abstract 5453: Individualized risk stratification in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Abstract Background: Clinical outcomes for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients are heterogenous with survival ranging from months to &amp;gt; 10 years. Though several clinical and genomic features predict outcomes, the “one-size-fits-all” treatment paradigm remains dominant for NDMM. Hypothesis: By integrating clinical, genomic and therapeutic data, using artificial intelligence, an individualized risk-prediction model for NDMM (IRM) can facilitate individually-tailored therapeutic decisions. Methods: We included 1933 patients with clinical and genomic data from 5 cohorts: MMRF CoMMpass (n=1062), MGP (n=492), Moffit AVATAR (n=177), UAMS (n=93), and MSKCC (n=109). The median follow-up was 43 months. Overall, we considered 160 clinical (e.g., age, ECOG, race), therapeutics, and genomic variables. To correct for time-dependent variables such as autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) and continuous treatment, a multi-state model was designed across two phases: induction (phase 1), and post-induction (phase 2). Neural Cox Non-proportional-hazards (NCNPH) was used to integrate the data and build the model. Results: Overall, the 5-year overall survival (OS) c-index for IRM was 0.73, significantly higher than all existing prognostic models: R2-ISS (0.62), ISS (0.61) and R-ISS (0.56). The overall model accuracy was significantly improved by the inclusion of 12 genomic features, including 1q21 gain/amp, TP53 loss, t(4;14)(NSD2;IGH), complex copy number signatures, APOBEC mutational signature contribution, and del1p. Prescribed therapy emerged as a key determinant of risk, suggesting that effective combinations may have a different impact in the context of individual patient features, with the potential to significantly change clinical outcomes despite poor historical prognostication (i.e., treatment variance). Leveraging these concepts, we interrogated the clinical impact of ASCT and continuous treatment in the context of NDMM treated with bortezomib, lenalidomide and dexamethasone (VRd). Integrating predicted outcomes and treatment variance for all 4 possible treatment combinations (i.e., VRd +/- ASCT +/- continuous treatment) we identified 3 patient groups. In the first group (n=632), patients were characterized by complex genomic features, older age, high ISS, poor outcomes and limited treatment variance, reflecting aggressive and refractory myeloma. The second group (n=571) was characterized by high treatment variance, with favorable outcomes if ASCT and continuous treatment are provided. The last group (n=730) included patients with favorable clinical and genomic profiles, achieving good outcomes, with minimal advantage from ASCT. Conclusion: Integrating historical and emerging genomic features with clinical and therapeutic data, we developed the first individualized risk-prediction model for personally-tailored therapeutic decisions in NDMM. Citation Format: Arjun Raj Rajanna, Francesco Maura, Andriy Derkach, Bachisio Ziccheddu, Niels Weinhold, Kylee Maclachlan, Benjamin Diamond, Faith Davies, Eileen Boyle, Brian Walker, Alexandra Pos, Malin Hulcrantz, Ariosto Silva, Oliver Hampton, Jamie K. Teer, Niccolò Bolli, Graham Jackson, Martin Kaiser, Charlotte Pawlyn, Gordon Cook, Dennis Verducci, Dickran Kazandjian, Fritz Van Rhee, Saad Usmani, Kenneth H. Shain, Marc S. Raab, Gareth Morgan, Ola Landgren. Individualized risk stratification in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 5453.