Individual Household Level Research Articles

Modelling Household Spending Using a Random Assignment Scheme

Applied demand analysis is usually done by specifying some kind of econometric equation but there are some difficulties associated with this approach. These include the problem of modelling at a highly disaggregated level and the amount of data needed to estimate the parameters for the equations. This paper examines the use of what are known as random assignment schemes as a way to model household expenditure. This approach is based on the idea of predicting the behavioural response of a microsimulation unit by finding a donor, which is in some sense similar to the receiving unit. The paper begins with a brief review of econometric modelling. It then introduces the principles of random assignment schemes. These are expanded upon in an illustrative example to model the effect of changes in the level of income on household expenditure patterns. The model is then used as a platform to show how the random assignment scheme can be used to model a large number of goods, at the level of individual households.

Proximity to vacant buildings is associated with increased fire risk in Baltimore, Maryland, homes

BackgroundFires and burns are a leading cause of unintentional injury death in the USA. Although it has been anecdotally reported that vacant dwellings are at a higher risk for fire,...

Personal care consumption in Finland: trends in the early 2000s

PurposeThe paper aims to examine changes concerning spending on personal care products and services, and socio‐demographic variations between households.Design/methodology/approachThe data were derived from the Finnish Household Budget Survey from 1998 (n=4,359), 2001 (n=5,495) and 2006 (n=4,007) provided by Statistics Finland. The main analysis of personal care consumption was conducted by examining the purchasing costs of personal care products and appliances, and the amount of spending on personal care services. The differences in expenditure patterns are analysed according to the respondents' gender and age, level of education and income, and type of household.FindingsThe results indicate that household spending on personal care products and services has generally increased. However, the share of total consumption has not changed dramatically. The gender of the highest earner of the household along with household income is the key predictor of this type of consumption expenditure across all household types. The effects of these two variables have become stronger.Research limitations/implicationsThe data do not make it possible to differentiate between individual level and household level spending decisions across all household types.Social implicationsContrary to common belief, gender differences concerning personal care consumption have not diminished.Originality/valueThis study examines actual changes in personal care consumption according to socio‐demographic variables.

Reducing landslide risk in communities: Evidence from the Eastern Caribbean

Landslide risk reduction measures have been undertaken in a number of vulnerable unplanned communities in the Eastern Caribbean. The communities are located on hillsides which are known to be susceptible to landslides. Physically-based modelling demonstrates that the construction of simple retaining walls, a common practice at the individual household level, is unlikely to be an effective method of landslide risk reduction. A more appropriate approach is shown to be the comprehensive management of all forms of surface water through the construction of a network of drains to capture surface runoff, household roof-water and grey water. With reference to three major rainfall events, evidence is given of landslide risk reduction having been achieved though the implementation of such hillslope drainage measures. This study provides important, rare evidence of the impact of an ‘on-the-ground’, community-based, approach to landslide risk reduction. From a policy point of view, it suggests that a community-based approach to landslide risk reduction may well be applicable to vulnerable communities in the developing world, and indicates how such an approach maybe initiated.

Wealth stratification and reproduction in Northeast China, 1866–1907

Although the importance of material wealth to population growth is the core of Malthusian theory about population dynamics in pre-transitional societies, our understanding of the relationship between wealth and reproductive success in China is still limited. Until recently, there was little in the way of relevant data. In the absence of empirical evidence to the contrary, conceptions of the Chinese demographic regime were largely Malthusian, in that they did not account for the possible role of a fertility-based preventive check. In this study, we examine wealth differentials in reproduction in historical rural China by using newly available longitudinal individual level demographic and household level land holding data for 108,100 immigrants and their descendants living in 120 villages in Shuangcheng, Northeast China, between 1866 and 1907. Our study demonstrates a positive correlation between land holding status and marital fertility among the population under study. In addition, there is also a clear pattern of fertility differentials according to household context and other measures of socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that these fertility differentials are not only results of certain social institutions and customs but also the consequences of couple's behavior of fertility control in response to socioeconomic and other household conditions.

Informal urban settlements and cholera risk in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BackgroundAs a result of poor economic opportunities and an increasing shortage of affordable housing, much of the spatial growth in many of the world's fastest-growing cities is a result of the expansion of informal settlements where residents live without security of tenure and with limited access to basic infrastructure. Although inadequate water and sanitation facilities, crowding and other poor living conditions can have a significant impact on the spread of infectious diseases, analyses relating these diseases to ongoing global urbanization, especially at the neighborhood and household level in informal settlements, have been infrequent. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyzed urban environmental data and the burden of cholera in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.Methodology/Principal FindingsCholera incidence was examined in relation to the percentage of a ward's residents who were informal, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without an improved water source, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without improved sanitation, distance to the nearest cholera treatment facility, population density, median asset index score in informal areas, and presence or absence of major roads. We found that cholera incidence was most closely associated with informal housing, population density, and the income level of informal residents. Using data available in this study, our model would suggest nearly a one percent increase in cholera incidence for every percentage point increase in informal residents, approximately a two percent increase in cholera incidence for every increase in population density of 1000 people per km2 in Dar es Salaam in 2006, and close to a fifty percent decrease in cholera incidence in wards where informal residents had minimally improved income levels, as measured by ownership of a radio or CD player on average, in comparison to wards where informal residents did not own any items about which they were asked. In this study, the range of access to improved sanitation and improved water sources was quite narrow at the ward level, limiting our ability to discern relationships between these variables and cholera incidence. Analysis at the individual household level for these variables would be of interest.Conclusions/SignificanceOur results suggest that ongoing global urbanization coupled with urban poverty will be associated with increased risks for certain infectious diseases, such as cholera, underscoring the need for improved infrastructure and planning as the world's urban population continues to expand.

Disentangling Bargaining Power from Individual and Household Level to Institutions: Evidence on Women’s Position in Ethiopia

Women’s bargaining power is generally analyzed only with individual level and household level variables. We add a third level, namely institutional bargaining power. We define this as bargaining power which one party freely derives from unequal social norms. In the bargaining literature there is a common paradoxical finding, namely that more access to and control over individual resources sometimes decreases rather than increases women’s bargaining outcomes. With household survey data from Ethiopia and making use of multilevel modeling and an aggregate model with interaction terms, we suggest that this paradoxical effect can be explained by very unequal gender norms—gendered institutions—at the group level. In our case, we used ethnic groups to show that in groups where gender norms are very unequal, individual and household level bargaining power variables effects are mediated by ethnic-gendered institutions. A policy implication of our findings is that gender policy may become more effective with shifting the emphasis from a largely individual approach to an institutional approach to support women’s empowerment.

The ZEW Combined Microsimulation-CGE Model: Innovative Tool for Applied Policy Analysis

Ex ante evaluation of policy reform proposals in general relies either on microsimulation models or computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. This paper describes how the Centre of European Economic Research (ZEW) has merged two established models - the so-called STSM and PACE-L models – in order to obtain a linked microsimulationcomputable general equilibrium model. This state of the art approach for applied policy analysis combines the advantages of the two model types. Concerning microsimulation models, their main advantage is the foundation on individual household level data. This allows a detailed analysis of who gains and who loses from a reform proposal. The main disadvantage of microsimulation models is that they neglect general equilibrium effects. In particular, these models assume constant wages and interest rates. i.e. that the labour market equilibrium is the same before and after the analyzed policy change. CGE models, on the other hand, incorporate these effects. Their disadvantage ist that they are based on aggregated household types rather than individual households. This brings a loss of information as regards heterogeneity of household which impedes in particular thorough distributional analysis. Merging the microsimulation and the CGE-approach to policy evaluation is a means to combine the advantages of both model types. The approach delivers detailed results as regards distributional outcomes whilst taking into account the possible employment and wage impacts of policy reforms. This paper provides an introduction to the fully integrated CGE-microsimulation model STSM/PACE-L. This model, developed and maintained at the ZEW, is the most advanced model of its kind in Germany. It integrates all individual households that are included the microsimulation model with flexible labour supply in the CGE model, whereby it achieves a much more precise representation of the household sector on the macroeconomic level than typical models with at best few representative households. The advantages of fully integrating simulation at the micro and macro level have shown in several cases of practical ex-ante evaluation studies.

Constructing load profiles for household electricity and hot water from time-use data—Modelling approach and validation

Time-use data, describing in detail the everyday life of household members as high-resolved activity sequences, have a largely unrealized potential of contributing to domestic energy demand modelling. A model for computation of daily electricity and hot-water demand profiles from time-use data was developed, using simple conversion schemes, mean appliance and water-tap data and general daylight availability distributions. Validation against detailed, end-use specific electricity measurements in a small sample of households reveals that the model for household electricity reproduces hourly load patterns with preservation of important qualitative features. The output from the model, when applied to a large data set of time use in Sweden, also shows correspondence to aggregate profiles for both household electricity and hot water from recent Swedish measurement surveys. Deviations on individual household level are predominantly due to occasionally ill-reported time-use data and on aggregate population level due to slightly non-representative samples. Future uses and developments are identified and it is suggested that modelling energy use from time-use data could be an alternative, or a complement, to energy demand measurements in households.

Do Regional Trade Pacts Benefit the Poor? An Illustration from Dominican Republic—Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua

The main objective of this paper is to provide an ex-ante assessment of the poverty and income distribution impacts of the Central American Free Trade Area agreement on Nicaragua. The authors use a general equilibrium macro model to simulate trade reform scenarios and estimate their price effects, while a micro-module maps these price changes into real income changes at the individual household level. A useful insight from this analysis is that even if the final total impact on poverty is not too large, its dispersion across households - due to their heterogeneity of factor endowments, inputs use, commodity production, and consumption preferences - is significant and should be taken into account when designing compensatory policies. Additionally, growth and redistribution decomposition show that, at least in the short to medium run, redistribution can be as important as growth. The main policy message that emerges from the paper is that Nicaragua should consider enlarging its own liberalization to countries other than the United States to boost trade-induced poverty reductions.

Individual factors explain neighbourhood variations in accidents to children under 5 years of age

Previous studies have identified possible neighbourhood-level influences on the risk of injuries to preschool children, but none have had sufficient data at both household and area level to explain these neighbourhood effects. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which recruited over 14,062 children at birth in the former county of Avon, UK, and collected information about accidents, as well as extensive social, health and developmental data throughout the first 5 years of life. This information was combined with census and geographical data in order to identify neighbourhood influences on accident risks and then attempt to explain these using multilevel regression modelling. A small but statistically significant amount of between-neighbourhood variance in accident risk was found, with neighbourhood intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.82% for any accident, and 0.84% for accidents resulting in injury requiring medical attention. This was entirely accounted for by a variety of child, parental and household level variables. Independent risk factors for both outcomes were children who were developmentally more advanced or displayed greater conduct and behavioural problems, mothers who were of younger age, who were without work, who were smokers, whose partners were unemployed or drank alcohol excessively, and households in which there had recently been adverse life events, or which were under financial stress. The mother's perceptions of neighbourhood quality also explained some of the risks for any accident, but not for medically attended accidents, and this was a variable that operated at the level of individual households rather than at the level of neighbourhoods. The implications of this study are that differences in accident risk between neighbourhoods are explained by geographical clustering of similar types of children, families and households. Interventions should focus more on parental factors and household social circumstances than on the physical environment or community based risks. However, many of these factors are those most resistant to modification without broader societal change.

Household burden of malaria in South Africa and Mozambique: is there a catastrophic impact?

To evaluate treatment-seeking behaviour, financial impact and time lost due to malaria events, in southern Mozambique and eastern South Africa. In-depth household surveys (828 in Mozambique and 827 in South Africa) were analysed. An asset index was calculated using principal component analysis to allow comparison across socio-economic groups. Direct costs of seeking care and the time lost due to malaria were determined. The extent of catastrophic payments was assessed using as thresholds the traditional 10% of household income and 40% of non-food income, as recently recommended by WHO. Poverty was highly prevalent: 70% of the South African and 95% of Mozambican households studied lived on less than $1 per capita per day. Around 97% of those with recent malaria sought healthcare, mainly in public facilities. Out-of-pocket household expenditure per malaria episode averaged $2.30 in South Africa and $6.50 in Mozambique. Analysis at the individual household level found that 32-34% of households in Mozambique, compared with 9-13% of households in South Africa, incurred catastrophic payments for malaria episodes. Results based on mean values underestimated the prevalence of catastrophic payments. Days off work/school were higher in Mozambique. The high rate of health seeking in public health facilities seems unusual in the African context, which bodes well for high coverage with artemisinin-based combinations, even if only deployed within the public sector. However, despite no or modest charges for public sector primary healthcare, households frequently incur catastrophic expenditure on a single malaria episode.

The Reciprocal Relationship between Private Label Use and Store Loyalty

Does private label use drive store loyalty at the individual household level? This question is important to retailers, as they decide how much to push private labels over national brands, and to national brand manufacturers, as they look for effective ways to both cooperate with and compete with retailers. Yet, empirical evidence of the association between private label use and store loyalty is both limited and mixed. In this study, we develop an econometric model of the relationship between a household's private label share and share of wallet. The model includes major drivers of these two behaviors and controls for simultaneity and non-linearity in the relationship between them. It is estimated using a unique dataset that combines complete purchase records of a panel of Dutch households with demographic and psychographic data. We estimate the model for two leading chains in the Netherlands - the leading service chain with a well-defined private label strategy and the leading value chain with a less differentiated private label program. We find that private label share significantly affects share of wallet and vice versa at the service chain, and both effects are strongly non-linear in the form of an inverted U. In contrast, the association between the two constructs at the value chain is much weaker and, if anything, is driven by the effect of share of wallet on private label share. The implications of this research are very important. Service retailers with a well-differentiated private label program can reap the benefits of a virtuous cycle - greater private label share increases share of wallet and greater share of wallet increases private label share. But, this virtuous cycle only operates to a point, and interestingly, private label share levels appear to have already exceeded that point. Further, just having a private label offering does not ensure the virtuous cycle. Value chains positioned on price without a well-differentiated private label do not get a loyalty benefit from private label.

HIV, infant feeding, and survival: old wine in new bottles, but brimming with promise

A string of new studies most of which have been presented at international meetings and are as yet unpublished have resulted in a gathering momentum of interest in HIV and infant feeding. In rich and some middle-income countries transmission of HIV antenatally and during labour and delivery has been substantially reduced by antiretrovirals and other interventions. Postnatal transmission was prevented by advising against breastfeeding; the alternative was replacement feeding with formula milks as these could be safely prepared were affordable and were culturally acceptable. The discourse on formula feeding or breastfeeding by HIV-positive mothers in developing countries has been mired in confusion or locked in robust disagreement. WHO/UNICEF/UNAIDS guidelines offered a framework for making choices based on socioeconomic conditions and household capability to prepare formula hygienically. The difficulty in the field was to offer an optimum balance of choices between the two types of milk feeding. Exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months is the recommendation for those choosing breastfeeding. Recent data from ongoing and completed studies in Africa have suggested that the effects of avoidance of breastfeeding or cessation even at 6 months by HIV-positive mothers can be disastrous. This finding repeats what has been and remains the bedrock of public health policy for infants and children well before the HIV epidemic and recognized through centuries of human experience. The new findings have led to the WHO refining its Guidelines on HIV and Infant Feeding in late 2006. (excerpt)

Consumer exposure to substances in plastic packaging. I. Assessment of the contribution of styrene from yogurt pots

A generic methodology for the assessment of consumer exposure to substances migrating from packaging materials into foodstuffs during storage is presented. Consumer exposure at the level of individual households is derived from the probabilistic modeling of the contamination of all packed food product units (e.g. yogurt pot, milk bottle, etc.) consumed by a given household over 1 year. Exposure of a given population is estimated by gathering the exposure distributions of individual households to suitable weights (conveniently, household sizes). Calculations are made by combining (i) an efficient resolution of migration models and (ii) a methodology utilizing different sources of uncertainty and variability. The full procedure was applied to the assessment of consumer exposure to styrene from yogurt pots based on yearly purchase data of more than 5400 households in France (about 2 million yogurt pots) and an initial concentration c 0 of styrene in yogurt pot walls, which is assumed to be normally distributed with an average value of 500 mg kg−1 and a standard deviation of 150 mg kg−1. Results are discussed regarding both sensitivity of the migration model to boundary conditions and household practices. By assuming a partition coefficient of 1 and a Biot number of 100, the estimated median household exposure to styrene ranged between 1 and 35 µg day−1 person−1 (5th and 95th percentiles) with a likely value of 12 µg day−1 person−1 (50th percentile). It was found that exposure does not vary independently with the average consumption rate and contact times. Thus, falsely assuming a uniform contact time equal to the sell-by-date for all yogurts overestimates significantly the daily exposure (5th and 95th percentiles of 2 and 110 µg day−1 person−1, respectively) since high consumers showed quicker turnover of stock.

Land Use Scenario DevelopeR

Land use models are generally recognized as useful tools for forecasting land use inputs to transportation models and for analyzing the land use effects of transportation projects. Unfortunately, the complexity of most land use models gets in the way of their widespread use by planning agencies. The Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) incorporates most of the land use behavior and policy sensitivity desired in a land use model, yet it has a simple structure and manageable data requirements. LUSDR operates at the level of individual households and employment establishments and microsimulates location decisions of land developments. The model produces a synthetic population of households with the attributes of size, workers, age of household head, income, dwelling tenure, and dwelling type. Households are packaged into residential developments. Employment is calculated from workers and allocated to economic sectors, employment establishments, and business developments (e.g., shopping centers, office parks). Residential and business developments are allocated to zones by an iterative process that identifies candidate zones on the basis of land availability and plan compatibility, chooses zones by using a location model and reconciles land supply and demand in each zone through a bidding process. The model is being used in a long-range land use visioning study in a small metropolitan planning organization and is planned for use in a number of applications in Oregon.

Searching for Solutions: The Evolution of an Integrated Approach to Understanding and Mitigating Human–Elephant Conflict in Africa

Human–elephant conflict (HEC) is widespread in Africa and occurs across all biogeographical regions of the species range. HEC involves not only agricultural losses, but also a complex social dimension in the most affected sector, subsistence farming. Agricultural losses involve damage to food crops, cash crops, and even food in storage, with absorption of any loss at the individual household level. The associated social costs are intangible, difficult to quantify, and highly significant. Elephants are a convenient medium for widespread and persistent complaint from rural communities against wildlife conservation initiatives. HEC displays complex spatial dynamics across landscapes. Nearly a decade of investigation coordinated by the IUCN AfESG has revealed several key principles for HEC mitigation. The approach to dealing with this problem needs to be applied at a variety of management scales and is as much an art as a science.

The social context of carbon sequestration: considerations from a multi-scale environmental history of the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal

This paper presents the results of a multi-scale investigation of environmental change in the Old Peanut Basin of Senegal throughout the 20th century. Based on historical accounts, ethnographies, aerial photos, satellite images, field and household surveys as well as various participatory research activities with farmers in selected villages, the study attempts to make explicit layered scales of analysis, both temporally and spatially. It shows that, despite some general trends of resource degradation in the Old Peanut Basin, local farming systems have embarked on different pathways of change to adapt to their evolving environment. It also illustrates that high diversity with respect to soil fertility management exists at the farm and household level. Finally, the paper proposes a farmer-oriented approach to carbon sequestration in order to integrate recommended technical options more efficiently into the complex and dynamic livelihoods of smallholders in dryland environments. This approach includes pathway-specific land use and management options at the level of farming systems and, at the level of individual households, a basket of possible practices from which farmers can choose depending on their multiple needs, capacities, and adaptive strategies to cope with risk and uncertainty.

Measuring Incidence, Prevalence and Concentration: Implications for Policing

Crime is distributed unevenly, a phenomenon commonplace at both areal and individual (personal or household) level. This is of core importance in the allocation of crime reduction resources. However, this importance is not reflected in the choice of measures used to target such resources. This paper distinguishes between alternative crime counts (incidence, prevalence and concentration) and elaborates on their deployment implications, using data from the Sandwell area of the West Midlands. The importance of the concentration measure (victimisations per victim) across units of count is stressed, and it is argued that necessary steps should be taken to incorporate concentration measures routinely into area crime profiles. The three-yearly audit- strategy sequence required under the Crime and Disorder Act 1998 should routinely incorporate such measures.

How Prudent are Community Representative Consumers?

The empirical analysis of precautionary savings based on household level has long suffered from the assumption of no risk-sharing behavior and measurement errors. Using a unique dataset from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), we provide an explicit estimate of the relative prudence coefficient of a representative consumer in the Chinese community. As the main innovation of this paper, focusing our estimation on the community, rather than individual household level, is motivated by two salient features of Chinese communities: the virtual isolation between the communities and a significant amount of risk-sharing within each community. Averaging consumption growth across individual households in the same community in Chinas context can reduce measurement errors. We show that the relative prudence coefficient for a community representative consumer is dramatically greater than that of an individual household, which is consistent with the widely agreed belief about the magnitude of risk-aversion in the life-cycle model.