Indirect Land Research Articles

Selection of optimum sustainable biofuel for maritime transportation using analytic hierarchy process

The increase in emissions from ships has prompted the International Maritime Organisation to take action and new emission regulations have been put into effect. Using low-carbon alternative fuels is a key part of the International Maritime Organisation’s strategy plan. Biofuels have significant potential in the maritime industry’s transition to alternative fuels due to their characteristic features. The aim of this study is to identify, through a scientific comparison, the most suitable biofuel that is sustainable for maritime transportation. The comparison was made with 7 criteria using the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology. Since a life cycle assessment approach was adopted in the comparison, well-to-wake emission performance and indirect land use change factor were also included within the criteria. For calculating the weights of the criteria, a questionnaire was created and 15 experts were consulted. For determining the performance of biofuel alternatives on the criteria, information from the literature was utilised. Experts identified safety as the most crucial criterion, followed by well-to-wake emissions and compatibility. The results indicate that biofuels like Fischer–Tropsch diesel and 3rd generation Hydrotreated vegetable oil, which excel in safety, well-to-wake emissions, and compatibility, are optimum biofuels for the shipping industry’s transition to low-carbon fuels. Abbreviations: AHP: Analytic Hierarchy Process; ASTM: American Society for Testing and Materials; CI: Consistency Index; CO: Carbon Monoxide; CO2: Carbon Dioxide; CR: Consistency Ratio; DME: Dimethyl Ether; FAME: Fatty Acid Methyl Ester; FT-Diesel: Fischer–Tropsch Diesel; GHG: Greenhouse Gas; GJ: Gigajoule; GLERL: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory; H2: Hydrogen; HC: Hydro Carbon; HFO: Heavy Fuel Oil; HTL: Hydrothermal Liquefaction; HVO: Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil; IEA: International Energy Agency; ILUC: Indirect Land Use Change; IMO: International Maritime Organisation; LBM: Liquefied Biomethane; LCA: Life Cycle Assessment; LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas; LPG: Liquefied Petroleum Gas; MCDM: Multiple Criteria Decision Making; MDO: Marine Diesel Oil; MGO: Marine Gas Oil; NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NOX: Nitrogen Oxides; PM: Particulate Matter; SOX: Sulphur Oxides; SVO: Straight Vegetable Oil; TRL: Technological Readiness Level; TTW: Tank-to-wake; UCO: Used Cooking Oil; ULSFO: Ultra-Low Sulphur Fuel Oil; UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development; VLSFO: Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil; WTT: Well-to-tank; WTW: Well-to-wake

Ecological footprint assessment of central java province: An input-output approach

The ecological footprint provides a vital measure of how human activities impact natural resources and the environment, highlighting the balance—or imbalance—between consumption and the Earth's capacity to regenerate resources. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for sustainable development, especially in regions facing resource constraints. This study assesses the ecological footprint of Central Java Province using an input-output approach to provide a comprehensive understanding of resource use and environmental impact across key sectors, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and built-up areas. By employing the 2016 input-output table and sector-specific land use data, this analysis calculates the direct and indirect land demands associated with final consumption and economic activities. The findings reveal that agriculture and fisheries exhibit the highest ecological footprints per capita, emphasizing their significant demand on land and water resources. The built-up sector, while more efficient in land use, contributes heavily to Central Java’s export economy, indicating its vital economic role. Results also highlight Central Java’s reliance on imported resources, particularly in forestry, to supplement local production, revealing the interconnectedness of regional and global resource flows. The study underscores the importance of adopting sustainable practices in high-impact sectors, such as agriculture, to reduce ecological strain and achieve a balanced resource footprint. This ecological footprint assessment offers insights into sector-specific sustainability challenges and guides policy recommendations for sustainable resource management in Central Java.

Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century

Societal Impact StatementThe global carbon budget provides annual updates to society on the main cause of climate change—CO2 emissions—and quantifies carbon‐uptake ecosystem services provisioned by the biosphere. We show that more consistent assumptions in the estimates of land‐atmosphere carbon exchange results in a global carbon budget that is imbalanced (gains do not equal losses). This imbalance implies that key processes causing land carbon fluxes, especially processes associated with human land management and recovery following abandonment in anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), have been misquantified. This impacts policy for land carbon management across scales and calls for better understanding of carbon cycling in anthromes.Summary Inconsistencies in the calculation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms of the global carbon cycle are investigated. The two terms—the direct anthropogenic flux (caused by direct human disturbance in anthromes, currently a carbon source to the atmosphere) and the indirect anthropogenic flux (caused indirectly by human activities that lead to global change and affecting all biomes, currently an atmospheric carbon sink)—are typically calculated independently, resulting in inconsistent underlying assumptions. We harmonize the estimation of the two anthropogenic land flux terms by incorporating previous estimates of these inconsistencies. We recalculate the global carbon budget (GCB) and apply change‐point analysis to the cumulative budget imbalance. Cumulative over 1850–2018 (1959–2018), harmonization results in a 13% lesser (4% greater) land use source from anthromes and a 20% (23%) lesser land sink. This recalculation yields a greater non‐closure of the GCB, indicating a missing carbon sink averaging 0.65 Pg C year−1 since the early 20th century. The imbalance likely results from a combination of method discontinuity and structural errors in the assessment of the direct anthropogenic land use flux, greater ocean carbon uptake, structural errors in land models, and in how these land terms are quantified for the budget. We caution against overconfidence in considering the GCB a solved problem and recommend further study of methodological discontinuities in budget terms. We strongly recommend studies that quantify the direct and indirect anthropogenic land fluxes simultaneously to ensure consistency, with a deeper understanding of human disturbance and legacy effects in anthromes.

Modelling and optimisation of low-indirect land used change biomass supply chains

Modelling and optimisation of low-indirect land used change biomass supply chains

Advanced Biofuel Value Chains Sourced by New Cropping Systems With Low iLUC Risk

ABSTRACTIncreasing lignocellulosic feedstock for advanced biofuels can tackle the decarbonization of the transport sector. Dedicated biomass produced alongside food systems with low indirect land use change (iLUC) impact can broaden the feedstock availability, thus streamlining the supply chains. The objective of this study was the design and evaluation of advanced ethanol value chains for the Emilia‐Romagna region based on low iLUC feedstock. Two dedicated lignocellulosic crops (biomass sorghum and sunn hemp) were evaluated in double cropping systems alongside food crop residues (corn stover and wheat straw) as sources to simulate the value chains. A parcel‐level regional analysis was carried out, then the LocaGIStics2.0 model was used for the spatial design and review of the biomass delivery chain options regarding cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the different feedstock mixes. Literature data on bioethanol production from similar feedstocks were used to estimate yields, process costs, and GHG emissions of a biorefinery process based on these biomasses. Within the chain options, GHG emissions were overly sensitive to cultivation input, mostly N‐fertilization. This considered, GHG emissions resulted similar across different feedstock with straw/stover (averaging 13 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel), sunn hemp (14 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel), and biomass sorghum (16 g CO2eq MJ−1 fuel). On the other hand, the bioethanol produced from biomass sorghum (608 € Mg−1 of bioethanol) was cheaper compared with straw (632 € Mg−1), sunn hemp (672 € Mg−1), and stover (710 € Mg−1). The bioethanol cost ranged from 0.0017 to 0.020 € MJ−1 fuel depending on the feedstock, with operations and maintenance impacting up to 90% of the final cost. In summary, a single bioethanol plant with an annual capacity of 250,000 Mg of biomass could replace from 5% to 7% of the Emilia‐Romagna's ethanol fuel consumption, depending on the applied sourcing scenario.

Biomethane from manure in the RePowerEU: A critical perspective on the scale-up of renewable energy production from the livestock sector

Biomethane from manure in the RePowerEU: A critical perspective on the scale-up of renewable energy production from the livestock sector

Analysis of the ecological footprint of mining machines in the phase of material extraction and processing in LCA

Sustainability in the mining industry continues to be a challenge. Although there is research in this area, there are still no solutions supporting the assessment of environmental impact in this sector. Therefore, it is important to look for and conduct various types of analyses that will be useful in this area. Therefore, the objective of the research was to analyse the ecological footprint of mining machines in the first phase of the LCA life cycle (obtaining and extracting materials). The analysis was based on the example of a hydraulic actuator, which is considered crucial to control machines in the mining industry. The ecological footprint burdens analysed included direct and indirect land take, sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and the use of nuclear energy. Life cycle assessment was carried out using the OpenLCA software with the ecoinvent v3.10 database. It has been shown that the largest amount of emissions occurs during off-site treatment of nonsulphide waste, cogeneration of heat and energy (hard coal), production of ferrochrome, high carbon, 68% Cr, and heat production in an industrial furnace using hard coal. It is proposed to carry out improvement activities that will first contribute to reducing the main environmental burdens. Then, it will be possible to significantly reduce the negative environmental impact of the hydraulic actuator's extraction and processing of materials. The results from the analysis may be useful not only for products from the mining industry but also in other areas of activity using this type of machine.

Visualising trade-related virtual urban land transfers in China

ABSTRACT As a type of environmental footprint, the concept of virtual land captures the indirect land use embedded in our consumption and trade activities. Utilising the environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model (EEMRIO) and Kaleidoscope diagram, we visualise for the first time the interprovincial flow of virtual urban land in China. It unveils the intricate urban network connections and the telecoupled interactions between human activities and land use amidst China's rapid urbanisation phase. The results indicate that the eastern region of China emerges as the primary net beneficiary of virtual urban land, whereas the western region stands as the principal net contributor. The local urban land in 65% of the provinces suffices for their own consumption demands. However, provinces like Zhejiang, Henan, and Jiangsu rely heavily on inter-provincial urban land to fulfil their consumption requirements. Inter-regional trade plays a pivotal role in facilitating the flow of land resources, significantly easing the strain between human demands and land availability in the developed coastal provinces of eastern China. Yet, it imposes additional ecological pressure on the more ecologically vulnerable areas in the west. The insights from this research are poised to offer valuable guidance for the Chinese government in harmonising urban development strategies, industrial distribution and the allocation of construction land on a national scale.

Life cycle assessment of hexanoic acid production via microbial electrosynthesis and renewable electricity: Future opportunities

Microbial electrosynthesis (MES) is a novel carbon utilisation technology aiming to contribute to a circular economy by converting CO2 and renewable electricity into value-added chemicals. This study presents a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of hexanoic acid (C6A) production using MES, comparing this production with alternative technologies. It also includes a cradle-to-grave LCA for potentially converting C6A into a neat sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). On a cradle-to-gate basis, MES-based C6A exhibits a carbon footprint at 5.5 t CO2eq/tC6A, similar to fermentation- and plant-based C6A. However, its direct land use is more than one order of magnitude lower than plant-based C6A. On a cradle-to-grave basis, MES-based neat SAF emits 325 g CO2eq/MJ neat SAF, which is significantly higher than the counterparts from currently certified routes and conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel. However, its negligible indirect land use change emissions might potentially make it competitive against neat SAFs originating from first-generation biomass.

Farmers’ motivations to cultivate biomass for energy and implications

Bioenergy derived from agricultural biomass can contribute to meeting the rising demand for renewable energy. To estimate the agricultural sector's potential to contribute to bioenergy, it is crucial to understand what motivates farmers to increase agricultural feedstock production sustainably. Through eight semi-structured interviews and online surveys with 174 farmers in southern Sweden, we explore the barriers and incentives farmers perceive in starting or increasing feedstock production for energy purposes sustainably using production methods with a low risk of causing indirect land use change (iLUC). Among the most prominent barriers are low profitability, high-risk investments, and potential negative environmental consequences such as soil depletion. Higher market prices for plant residuals and energy crops, combined with more long-term and reliable subsidies that support investments in new machinery, facilities, and production systems, are major driving factors to increase feedstock production for bioenergy. The study found that the farmers see little potential in using marginal lands due to their low soil productivity and spatial characteristics. Further, the potential for intensifying biomass production on currently cropped land is also found to be limited due to risks of soil depletion and environmental degradation. Our study highlights that the potential of bioenergy production from underutilized land and intensive production in Scania may be overestimated, and realizing this potential in practice may require suitable policy changes.

Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices?

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between corn prices in Brazil and the international market, considering a rise in corn ethanol production in Brazil's Midwest region since 2017. Did the entry of the corn ethanol industry in Brazil affect the relationship between domestic and international corn prices? A cointegration analysis was made with a monthly time series from May 2005 to August 2023 controlling for different exogenous events or shocks that may have affected global agricultural markets. The study's findings indicate a stable long‐term relationship between the international and Brazilian corn prices, with changes in international prices being predictors of variations in Brazilian domestic prices, while the opposite was not statistically supported. The study also found no evidence to support the claim that the entry of the corn ethanol industry into Mato Grosso state in 2017 impacted the prices paid to local producers. Therefore, the increase in Brazilian corn prices cannot be attributed to additional demand for corn by local mills, an important result that contributes to discussions such as food versus fuel and indirect land use change.

Camelina Intercropping with Pulses a Sustainable Approach for Land Competition between Food and Non-Food Crops

With increasing global attention toward the need for mitigating climate change, the transition to sustainable energy sources has become an essential priority. Introducing alternative oilseed crops, such as camelina (Camelina sativa L.), into intercropping systems with staple food crops can mitigate ILUC (indirect land use change) and their negative impact on biofuel production. The present study compared camelina + field pea intercropping (ICw + IP, winter sowing) and camelina + lentil intercropping (ICs + IL, spring sowing) with their respective single crops regarding weed control, soil coverage, yields, and camelina seed quality (1000-seed weight, oil, and fatty acid composition). The comparison between different cropping systems was conducted using a one-way ANOVA. Both intercropping improved weed control at an early stage but no differences in soil coverage were found. Camelina seed yield was negatively affected by the presence of peas, whereas the pulse was unaffected. Conversely, camelina seed yield was not affected when intercropped with lentils while lentils reduced their yield in the intercropping. Furthermore, when camelina was intercropped with lentils, a significant increase was reported in 1000-seed weight and α -linolenic acid (C18:3) compared with the sole-camelina. However, both intercropping systems had a land equivalent ratio (LER, based on total seed yield at maturity) higher than one. Defining the best combination of crops and the optimal sowing and harvesting settings remain key to increasing the adoption of intercropping systems by farmers.

‘Low ILUC-Risk’ as a Sustainability Standard for Biofuels in the EU

Producers of biofuels for the EU market may use ‘low ILUC-risk’ certification as evidence that they have not deprived other economic sectors of feedstock material, and hence that indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions have been avoided. At present, the uptake of low ILUC-risk certification is limited to a handful of niche projects, as there is little commercial incentive for obtaining certification. This may be considered a missed opportunity, because low ILUC-risk farming methods offer a range of sustainability co-benefits beyond the mitigation of ILUC emissions. This paper examines the policy foundations of low ILUC-risk and develops policy recommendations that would aim to confer advantages to low ILUC-risk biofuels. Some weaknesses in the low ILUC-risk system’s environmental safeguards are also highlighted.

Sustainable commodity sourcing requires measuring and governing land use change at multiple scales

AbstractThe increased availability of remote sensing products and new legislative agendas are driving a growing focus on farm‐level traceability and monitoring to tackle commodity‐driven deforestation. Here, we use data on land use change in Brazil (1985–2021) from Mapbiomas to demonstrate how analyses of the drivers of deforestation are sensitive to the scale of analysis: while pixel‐ or property‐level analyses identify proximate drivers of deforestation, analyses at larger scales (subnational regions or countries) capture more complex land use dynamics, including indirect land use change. We argue that initiatives which seek to monitor and address commodity‐driven deforestation—such as the European Union's deforestation due‐diligence regulation and the World Business Council on Sustainable Development's Greenhouse Gas Protocol—must be conscient of these wider land use dynamics. Only by measuring progress and defining success at multiple scales can initiatives for sustainable commodity sourcing create the right mix of incentives for addressing deforestation.

Environmental impact assessment of direct lithium extraction from brine resources: Global warming potential, land use, water consumption, and charting sustainable scenarios

Environmental impact assessment of direct lithium extraction from brine resources: Global warming potential, land use, water consumption, and charting sustainable scenarios

Peatland restoration in Germany: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Peatland restoration in Germany: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Bioenergy in Europe is unlikely to make a timely contribution to climate change targets

Increasing bioenergy production is a significant component of European efforts to mitigate climate change, but has contested potential for reducing emissions. We use an integrated land system model to explore the effects of large-scale bioenergy production within the European Union on carbon balances. We find that increased bioenergy crop production is likely to cause substantial deforestation and a commensurate loss of associated carbon stocks largely due to displacement of food production from other areas. Deforestation would occur either within the EU if European forests were not protected, or in other parts of the world arising from indirect land use change if European forests were protected. The net carbon benefit of bioenergy production is largely negative, or uncertain, even under the most optimistic levels of fossil fuel replacement, and will not offset initial carbon losses over the coming 50 yr. The growth of intensive agriculture required to satisfy the demand for bioenergy and food will have negative impacts on crucial ecosystem services. Overall, we identify substantial disadvantages to increasing bioenergy production relative to freeing land for natural succession. At best, large-scale bioenergy production is likely to be irrelevant to time-sensitive climate targets.

The Sustainability of Palm Oil

The most significant environmental issue associated with palm oil that is accused by the European Union is deforestation, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. The tension arose after the EU established Renewable Energy Directive II. EU considered palm oil-producing countries have ignored environmental issues by expanding palm oil plantations which has resulted in deforestation. This made palm oil plantations included in the high-risk Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) category. Therefore, this article presents a comparison of the sustainability between palm oil and other vegetable oils such as sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, etc. The findings of this article contextualize the comparative advantage of palm oil over other similar resources. The reasons why palm oil is more sustainable are it needs less land to produce the same amount of oil, its sustainability certification at the international level such as RSPO which is also connected to SDGs, and at the domestic level such as ISPO and MSPO. One strategy proposed in this article is instead of boycotting palm oil, the government and stakeholders should prioritize the implementation of sustainable practices, enhance the monitoring and enforcement of RSPO scheme standards, and tackle social concerns and deforestation that are always linked to palm oil.

Environmental consequences of shifting to timber construction: The case of Denmark

Many life cycle assessments (LCA) studies on wooden buildings show potential to decarbonise the building industry, though often neglecting to consider the systemic changes of such a shift at the building stock scale. This study applies a consequential LCA to evaluate the transition from conventional construction to increased wood-based construction in Denmark from 2022 to 2050. The assessment models a material flow analysis of the two construction scenarios, incorporating an area forecast and case buildings. By that, we assessed suppliers' capacity to likely meet the demand for wood, steel, and concrete, employed an input-output model to enhance completeness and country representativeness for other materials' markets, and considered the competition for land by indirect land use change. We implemented a dynamic IPCC-based assessment of GHG-emissions concurrently with a carbon forest model to anticipate the relationship between the delayed carbon storage resulting from using wood in buildings and forest regrowth management. The findings indicate wood construction is the most climate-friendly option for multifamily houses. In contrast, single-family houses (SFH) and office buildings (OB) exhibit the lowest climate impacts in the conventional scenario. The SFH result could be credible due to the sizable GWP impact gap between construction scenarios despite uncertainties related to the weight proportion of sedum roofs. The less conclusive OB findings relate to the substantial steel quantities in the wood case buildings, requiring further investigation. Generally, metals, cement-based- and biobased materials demonstrate the largest climate impact among the material categories. Across all three building typologies, the change to timber construction increased the impact on nature occupation (biodiversity). In conclusion, this study emphasises the need for further research on forest management model inputs, land use change approaches, potential steel suppliers' impact, and a broader array of case studies. It is because these are influential factors in facilitating informed decision-making of the increased implementation of wood in buildings. As the first study to integrate these modelling characteristics, it contributes to the research gap concerning geographical circumstances, forestry, and markets relevant to decision support for increased wood utilisation in Europe's building industry.

‘Because it matters’

AbstractBasic economic logic, which often simplifies assessments and explanations of agricultural policy issues, is vitally important in communicating with policy‐makers. Resources are limited, and there is a premium on getting decisions at least approximately right first time. Examples from southern Africa illustrate the importance of parity pricing, and its links to household food security (Lesotho), price risk, the emergence of an agricultural futures market, and its central role in allocating scarce agricultural resources (South Africa). Insights derived from an appreciation of parity pricing are relevant in other national contexts and also help explain how international grain markets operate. The parity pricing concept provides a framework for sense‐checking complicated debates relating to two issues that have been prominent in recent years; first, whether and to what extent speculation in futures markets has been a driver of agricultural price spikes, and second, how far indirect land use change (ILUC), triggered by the use of agricultural feedstocks to produce renewable energy, is a material issue. These issues are likely to be of heightened importance in the face of climate change. Each emphasises that agricultural economics matters, and that it matters that we get the economics right.