Increase In Death Rate Research Articles

Evaluating causative agents, mortality factors, and laboratory data of hospital-acquired pneumonia patients.

In the recent years, the increase in death rates from nosocomial pneumonia draws attention. The aim of this study was to examine the causative agents and mortality factors of patients with pneumonia who were followed up in the chest diseases intensive care unit. Data of 1070 patients with pneumonia were screened for this study. A total of 160 patients with hospital-acquired pneumonia included in this study. The relationship between factors such as patients' comorbidities, length of stay in the intensive care unit, history of hospitalization or respiratory support therapy, infection markers such as C-reactive protein, white blood cell, nutritional markers such as albumin and protein, renal and liver function tests, culture growing microorganisms, and clinical pulmonary infection scores was evaluated and mortality rates were examined. Among 1070 patients, the rate of hospital-acquired pneumonia was 14.9%, and the mortality rate of pneumonia was 16.9%. Mortality was significantly increased in patients who stayed in the intensive care unit for more than 10 days, in patients with a clinical pulmonary infection score of ≥6 and with a history of hospitalization in the past one month, and received invasive mechanical ventilation therapy. Mortality increased in patients with hypoalbuminemia, hypoproteinemia, and high C-reactive protein values. The most commonly grown microorganism was Acinetobacter baumannii, which was also found significantly in patients who underwent invasive mechanical ventilation. In the clinical approach to hospital-acquired pneumonia, in order to prevent mortalities, it is important to reveal whether the newly emerging symptoms and signs are related to pneumonia, to identify the causative pathogen, and to determine the severity of the disease.

Dynamics of a predator-prey model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response, omnivory and predator switching

In this paper, a predator-prey model has been developed by considering Beddington-DeAngelis functional response among the interaction of three species prey, middle predator and top predator. It is assumed that middle predator consumes only prey, but top predator consumes prey as well as middle predator. The concept of omnivory has been introduced in this model. Also, it is assumed that due to omnivory property, the top predator has a chance to prefer the food (prey) to consume. Here two types of predator switching behavior such as preferential switching and density dependent switching have been introduced. Different possible equilibrium points are evaluated and the stability of the system has been investigated around these points. Theoretical analysis of for the existence condition of Hopf bifurcation of the system has been studied with respect to $w_4$. It is found that the increase of death rate of middle and top predator may be responsible for the extinction of both the species or that particular species. It is observed that omnivory may lead the system towards stability. It is also observed that the predator switching behaviour may strengthen the stability and persistence of all populations. Finally, some numerical simulation results have been presented to validate the analytical findings.

Chemical Exposures Affect Innate Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2.

Severe outcomes of COVID-19 are associated with pathological response of the immune system to the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Emerging evidence suggests that an interaction may exist between COVID-19 pathogenesis and a broad range of xenobiotics, resulting in significant increases in death rates in highly exposed populations. Therefore, a better understanding of the molecular basis of the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 infection and chemical exposures may open opportunities for better preventive and therapeutic interventions. We attempted to gain mechanistic knowledge on the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 infection and chemical exposures using an in silico approach, where we identified genes and molecular pathways affected by both chemical exposures and SARS-CoV-2 in human immune cells (T-cells, B-cells, NK-cells, dendritic, and monocyte cells). Our findings demonstrate for the first time that overlapping molecular mechanisms affected by a broad range of chemical exposures and COVID-19 are linked to IFN type I/II signaling pathways and the process of antigen presentation. Based on our data, we also predict that exposures to various chemical compounds will predominantly impact the population of monocytes during the response against COVID-19.

Lung Cancer Diagnosis using Transfer Learning

Lung cancer is unquestionably a lung-influencing chronic condition that significantly hampers the respiratory system. It is the second most dangerous disease which causes increase in death rate. To resolve this issue, we had planned to create a very Convolutional Neural Network using Transfer learning to specifically classify the lungs CT scans as normal, malignant, or benign in a subtle way. A dataset of 1100 lung CT scans is used for this purpose. For the most part, five Transfer Learning architectures are compared extensively in this classification such as MobileNet, VGG16, VGG19, DenseNet-201 and ResNet-101. Out of which, DenseNet-201 performed the best. The proposed strategy achieved a mean accuracy of 53 percent in the trials and 43% of mean F1-score, mean precision and mean recall.

A Novel 3D Culture Model of Human ASCs Reduces Cell Death in Spheroid Cores and Maintains Inner Cell Proliferation Compared With a Nonadherent 3D Culture.

3D cell culture technologies have recently shown very valuable promise for applications in regenerative medicine, but the most common 3D culture methods for mesenchymal stem cells still have limitations for clinical application, mainly due to the slowdown of inner cell proliferation and increase in cell death rate. We previously developed a new 3D culture of adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells (ASCs) based on its self-feeder layer, which solves the two issues of ASC 3D cell culture on ultra-low attachment (ULA) surface. In this study, we compared the 3D spheroids formed on the self-feeder layer (SLF-3D ASCs) with the spheroids formed by using ULA plates (ULA-3D ASCs). We discovered that the cells of SLF-3D spheroids still have a greater proliferation ability than ULA-3D ASCs, and the volume of these spheroids increases rather than shrinks, with more viable cells in 3D spheroids compared with the ULA-3D ASCs. Furthermore, it was discovered that the SLF-3D ASCs are likely to exhibit the abovementioned unique properties due to change in the expression level of ECM-related genes, like COL3A1, MMP3, HAS1, and FN1. These results indicate that the SLF-3D spheroid is a promising way forward for clinical application.

Effect of energy requirements in the growth of brain tumor: a theoretical approach

A malignant tumor is an uncontrolled growth of tissues receiving energy in form of the nutrients provided by the microvascular networks. It is proposed that the supplied energy to a tumor is used for three purposes: the creation of new cells, maintenance of tumor cells, and tumor volume expansion by overcoming external pressure. A mathematical model studying the effects of energy required for maintenance and overcoming external pressure, the energy required creating a single cell, death rate, and tumor cell density on tumor development has been formulated. Including a term, residual energy for tumor growth in the tumor growth equation, the well-known logistic equation has been re-derived for tumors. Analytical solutions have been developed, and numerical analysis for the growth in brain tumors with the variation of parameters related to energy supply, the energy required for maintenance, and expansion of tumor has been performed. Expressions for the tumor growth rate(r) and carrying capacity(C) of the tumor are formulated in terms of the parameters used in the model. The range of ‘r’, estimated using our model is found within the ranges of tumor growth rates in gliomas reported by the other researchers. Selecting the model parameters precisely for a particular individual, the tumor growth rate and carrying capacity could be estimated accurately. Our study indicates that the actual growth rate and carrying capacity of a tumor reduce and tumor saturation time increases with the increase of death rate, the energy required for a single cell division, and energy requirement for the tumor cell maintenance.

Lung Cancer Death Attributable to Long-Term Ambient Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Exposure in East Asian Countries During 1990-2019.

Background: Ambient particulate matter is a public health concern in East Asia as it contributes to a growing number of all-cause and cancer deaths. This study aimed to estimate lung cancer death attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM) < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in East Asia countries.Methods: The attributable death rates of lung cancer were estimated based on the calculation of population attributable fraction. We performed joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate temporal trends of the attributable death to PM2.5.Results: In 2019, PM2.5 was estimated to have caused 42.2% (nearly 0.13 million) of lung cancer deaths in East Asia men. During 1990–2019, the increase in age-standardized death rates of lung cancer attributable to PM2.5 was highest in China, which increased by 3.50% in males and 3.71% in females. The death rate caused by PM2.5 also significantly increased in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (2.16% in males; 3.06% in females). Joinpoint analysis showed that the rates generally increased in younger and older people in both the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia, while it only increased in elderly people in other countries'. Age effect from APC analysis demonstrated the risk of lung cancer death attributable to PM2.5 generally increased from young to old age. Period effect indicated that from 1994–1998 to 2019–2023 period risk continuously increased by 1.77, 1.68, and 1.72 times in China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Japan, respectively. The period risk decreased from 1999 to 2009 and subsequently increased from 2009 to 2019 in both the Republic of Korea and Mongolia.Conclusions: The death rate of lung cancer attributable to PM2.5 is increasing in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, and China. In East Asia, China is facing the highest attributable death rate in recent decades. The period effect suggested a remarkably increased risk of lung cancer death caused by PM2.5 in China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and Japan during the long-term period. It is recommended that the governments of these countries should continuously concentrate on particulate matter pollution governance and improvement.

Comparative analysis of COVID-19 case fatality rate between two waves in Nepal.

The first COVID‐19 case in Nepal was reported on January 23, 2020. Then infection, then, started to spread gradually, and October marked the most devastating increase in COVID‐19 cases of the year 2020. Compared with the October 2020 peak in Nepal, the May 2021 peak of COVID‐19 observed 2‐ and 10‐fold rise in new cases and deaths per day, respectively. Given that this surprising increase in the death rate was not observed in other countries, this study analyzed the COVID‐19 case fatality rates between the two peaks in Nepal. We found an increase in death rates among younger adults and people without comorbidities.

Анализ смертности населения от злокачественных новообразований на региональном уровне

Objective : The estimation of the level and structure of malignant neoplasms (MNP) mortality level in Republic of Buryatia for the period from 2009 to 2018. Methods : Statistical data of forms No. 7 and No. 35 of federal statistical observation and materials by Republican Clinical Oncological Dispensary. Results : Significant gender differences were defined in the level and structure of MNP mortality rate among population of the republic. The increase in mortality rate caused by tumor of the central nervous system, prostate, skin, lip, oral cavity, throat and kidneys was registered among men population. The increase in mortality rate among women was caused by skin melanoma, laryngeal cancer, lymphoma, hematopoietic tumor, ovarian and pancreatic cancer. Conclusions : Despite the downward trend in the MNP death rate in Republic of Buryatia the oncological problem is still urgent because of the increase in death rate due to separate tumor localizations. The oncological service of the Republic has reserve to decrease death rate from general forms of MNP which can be supported by relevant activities.

The Microbiome Tumor Axis: How the Microbiome Could Contribute to Clonal Heterogeneity and Disease Outcome in Pancreatic Cancer.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most malignant cancers. It is characterized by a poor prognosis with a 5-year survival rate of only around 10% and an ongoing increase in death rate. Due to the lack of early and specific symptoms, most patients are diagnosed at an advanced or even metastasized stage, essentially limiting curative treatment options. However, even curative resection of the primary tumor and adjuvant therapy often fails to provide a long-term survival benefit. One reason for this dismal situation can be seen in the evolution of therapy resistances. Furthermore, PDAC is characterized by high intratumor heterogeneity, pointing towards an abundance of cancer stem cells (CSCs), which are regarded as essential for tumor initiation and drug resistance. Additionally, it was shown that the gut microbiome is altered in PDAC patients, promotes Epithelial-Mesenchymal-Transition (EMT), determines responses towards chemotherapy, and affects survival in PDAC patients. Given the established links between CSCs and EMT as well as drug resistance, and the emerging role of the microbiome in PDAC, we postulate that the composition of the microbiome of PDAC patients is a critical determinant for the abundance and plasticity of CSC populations and thus tumor heterogeneity in PDAC. Unravelling this complex interplay might pave the way for novel treatment strategies.

Disparities in Opioid Overdose Death Trends by Race/Ethnicity, 2018-2019, From the HEALing Communities Study.

Objectives. To examine trends in opioid overdose deaths by race/ethnicity from 2018 to 2019 across 67 HEALing Communities Study (HCS) communities in Kentucky, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio. Methods. We used state death certificate records to calculate opioid overdose death rates per 100 000 adult residents of the 67 HCS communities for 2018 and 2019. We used Poisson regression to calculate the ratio of 2019 to 2018 rates. We compared changes by race/ethnicity by calculating a ratio of rate ratios (RRR) for each racial/ethnic group compared with non-Hispanic White individuals. Results. Opioid overdose death rates were 38.3 and 39.5 per 100 000 for 2018 and 2019, respectively, without a significant change from 2018 to 2019 (rate ratio = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.98, 1.08). We estimated a 40% increase in opioid overdose death rate for non-Hispanic Black individuals (RRR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.22, 1.62) relative to non-Hispanic White individuals but no change among other race/ethnicities. Conclusions. Overall opioid overdose death rates have leveled off but have increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals. Public Health Implications. An antiracist public health approach is needed to address the crisis of opioid-related harms. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10):1851-1854. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306431).

Challenges and management of spine trauma during Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious threat to national health systems in a century. The rapid development and spread of the COVID-19 disease necessitated a significant shift in clinical practice and a restructuring of institutional structures. Elective surgery has been drastically reduced in Spinal Surgery Units around the world since the start of the pandemic, and spine trauma management techniques have changed dramatically. All elective treatments, including spinal surgeries, were cancelled due to the virus's highly contagious nature, reduced nosocomial infection, and freed up extra beds for COVID-19 diseases. Emergencies, such as growing neurological deficits or spine instability caused by fractures, infections, or malignancies, could not be postponed. While different considerations should have been made before performing routine spine procedures, the latter was rendered more difficult due to unknown characteristics of the COVID-19 infection. In one study, all patients were polytrauma patients with a higher risk of pneumonia complications due to trauma. The usefulness of corticosteroids in the treatment of spinal cord injury is debated. In the instance of COVID-19 infection, Russell et al. advised not to use corticosteroids. Pneumonia was linked to a 20percent increase in death rate following posterior lumbar fusion surgeries in research by Bohl et al.

Death Analysis of 10 Major Diseases Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic in Papua Province, Indonesia, 2020

Some of the co-morbidities that may cause death in COVID-19 patients include: hypertension, diabetes,lung disease, heart disease and malaria. People with the disease have a high death rate when they becomeinfected with COVID-19. The aim of this study is to analyze the deaths of the top 10 diseases in the PapuaProvince prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research method used in this study is a mixmethod. The research was conducted in Papua Province and Yowari Regional Hospital, Jayapura Regency,from September to November 2020. The informants were the Head of the Provincial Health Office and threeheads of the COVID-19 epicenter of the Health Office. Quantitative samples were taken from patients whodied between January 2020 and June 2020, namely 87 cases of death. A sample of 87 people was obtainedusing a total sampling technique. Data gathering techniques are secondary data and in-depth interviews. Theresults showed an increase in the number of deaths in the top 10 diseases before and during COVID-19,with an increase of 71 percent. The cause of the increase in death rates before and during the COVID-19pandemic was due to a misconception of health and illness, as well as to the behavior of people who werelate to go to health services. Death from heart failure was the main cause of death. At Yowari RegionalHospital, Jayapura Regency, people who died from the top 10 diseases before COVID-19 were aged 26-45years, i.e. 11 people (34.4 percent). Meanwhile, the majority were 46-65 years old during the COVID-19pandemic, i.e. 18 people (32.7 percent). Promotional and preventive efforts are the strategy of the localgovernment (Health Department) to reduce deaths from the top 10 diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Associations of presidential voting preference and gubernatorial control with county-level COVID-19 case and death rates in the continental United States

ObjectiveTo investigate the associations of state gubernatorial party control and 2016 county-level presidential election preference on COVID-19 case and death rates in the United States. Study designThis was a secondary analysis of publicly available data. MethodsData including county-level COVID-19 case and death counts through February 9, 2021, 2020 gubernatorial data, and county-level US Census Bureau data, Broadstreet area deprivation index, and 2016 presidential voting tallies were included. Negative binomial regression estimated the adjusted impact of each variable on COVID-19 case and death rates. ResultsA total of 3102 counties in the 48 continental United States plus Washington DC were included. County-level case and death rates were higher (12% and 22%, respectively) in Republican vs Democrat controlled states. Case and death rates were higher in counties voting Republican vs Democrat in 2016 and were modified by counties with median ages ≥ 50 years (54% increase in case rate and 91% increase in death rate). ConclusionsThese data further support the need for prevention efforts to focus on public health while extricating guidance and prevention from political agendas.

Real-world Safety of Bevacizumab with First-line Combination Chemotherapy in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Population-based Retrospective Cohort Studies in Three Canadian Provinces

AimsTo examine the real-world safety of adding bevacizumab to first-line irinotecan-based chemotherapy for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Materials and methodsPatients diagnosed with CRC in three Canadian provinces (Ontario, Saskatchewan and British Columbia) who received publicly funded bevacizumab and/or irinotecan from 2000 to 2016 were identified from cancer registries. Propensity score 1:1 matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were performed to contemporaneous and historical controls, adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics. Safety end points evaluated during first-line treatment plus 30 days included mortality within 30 days and all-cause-, chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related hospitalisations. Chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related visits were defined as hospitalisations for specific conditions commonly associated with chemotherapy (e.g. infections) or bevacizumab (e.g. arteriovenous thromboembolism) using most responsible diagnosis codes. In PSM and IPTW-weighted cohorts, we assessed event frequencies using odds ratios from logistic regressions and event rate ratios using negative binomial regression models. The results from each province and comparison were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. ResultsWe identified 16 250 mCRC patients who received first-line irinotecan-based treatment. In PSM cohorts, bevacizumab was associated with fewer deaths within 30 days of treatment compared with contemporaneous (pooled odds ratio = 0.62; 95% confidence interval 0.50–0.75) and historical controls (pooled odds ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval 0.58–0.93). Hospitalisations were more frequent among patients treated with bevacizumab compared with historical controls but similar to contemporaneous controls. As patients receiving bevacizumab were exposed to a longer average treatment duration, across their full treatment duration, patients receiving bevacizumab had significantly lower rates of hospitalisations (contemporaneous pooled rate ratio = 0.56; 95% confidence interval 0.47–0.67; historical pooled rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence interval 0.56–0.95). Similar trends were observed for chemotherapy- and bevacizumab-related hospitalisations and in IPTW-weighted cohorts. DiscussionWe did not observe any increase in rates of hospitalisation or death within 30 days of treatment among mCRC patients treated with bevacizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone; these findings should be interpreted with caution due to the risk of residual confounding.

Tropical cyclones and mortality in the United States

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In the US, tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, have a devastating impact on society and are an important public health concern. Previous work has comprehensively examined the association of tropical cyclones with hospitalizations within the week of exposure, and case studies have quantified storm impacts on some causes of death for particular powerful hurricanes. But a comprehensive assessment of multiple causes of mortality across multiple years of study is currently missing. METHODS: In the present study, we used data from over 85 million deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics and a comprehensive record of tropical cyclone occurrence in the US over 30 years (1988 – 2017). We formulated a Bayesian conditional quasi-Poisson model to examine how monthly tropical cyclone exposure—defined as number of days in a month with a sustained maximal wind speed of greater than 34 knots—by county affects monthly death rates up to six months after exposure using unconstrained distributed lag terms. We will also examine how changes in storm-related mortality vary by age and sex, as well as how less powerful but more common winds also impact mortality. RESULTS:There was a total of 4,624 tropical cyclone exposure days (of which 202 were hurricane-level) in 1,174 counties distributed throughout 31 states during our study period. We found that each additional hurricane exposure day was associated with average increases in death rate for cardiovascular diseases only in the month following exposure (3.3%; 95% credible interval [CrI]:0.2, 6.3%); and for respiratory diseases (5.3%; 95%CrI:1.1, 9.7%) in the month of exposure with a positive association remaining until three months afterwards. CONCLUSIONS:Our findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions and additional preparedness for key causes of death before, during, and after tropical cyclones, especially as they are likely to increase in strength with global climate change. KEYWORDS: Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Mortality, Weather

Effects of COVID19 pandemic on the Italian power system and possible countermeasures

The paper analyses the dramatic effects of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Italian power system, considering the impacts on load and generation, market issues and ancillary services provision. During the period between March and May 2020, the Italian scenario was considered as exemplary due to the large reduction of loads and thermal generation caused by the hard lockdown across the Country. Italy has experienced the most severe effects of pandemic in terms of increase of death rates and of pressure on the health system as well as severity of the countermeasures. As a domino effect, the total lockdown of one of the most industrialized countries in the world has created an emergency situation that has put a big stress on the power system, reducing the possibility for the system to recover under contingencies. The weakness of the system in such an extreme situation is analyzed in depth using open data, while some countermeasures for providing resilience to the power systems in such cases are analyzed in simulation. Two technologies are here considered as exemplary countermeasures for providing resilience to the Italian power system: Fast Frequency Response by Photovoltaic and Wind plants with rated power above 10 MVA and the massive implementation of Demand Response programs through Energy communities and aggregation using Blockchain technology. The simulations show, on one hand, that the frequency recovery under contingency seems compromised in the current situation and that the support from such innovative technologies can provide a significant relief bringing the operational features close to those before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prediction of highly vulnerable areas to COVID-19 outbreaks using spatial model: Case study of Cairo Governorate, Egypt

COVID-19 has affected over 170 countries around the world. Alarming rate has increased with the increase of infected cases and death rates. Whereas, the World Health Organization (WHO) had declared the COVID-19 virus as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. Preparations were made to face the spread of COVID-19, as predicting the most probable risk areas by using spatial models. Prediction spatial models of COVID-19 risk areas can help the governmental authorities to generate sustainable strategies and set up suitable protocols to control the pandemic. This research presents an attempt of a potential spatial prediction modeling of COVID-19 risk areas in Cairo governorate-Egypt. Four indicator models (demographic, residential, environmental and topographic) were developed using geomatics technology based on the guidelines of the UN-habitat sustainable development goals (SDGs) target (11 & 3). Five predicted scenarios were generated for the most pandemic probability areas by the integration of the four indicator models. The results showed that there are common areas in all scenarios for highly COVID-19 pandemic risk areas. These common risk areas were found in (El Marag, El Salam, Ain Shams, El Mataria, El Gammaleya, Manshiat Nasser, El Mosky, Bolak, Hadaak El Koba, and El Sharbeya) districts. The hotspots zones are characterized by overcrowding, high population density and economic activities, large family size, poor infrastructure service and low rate of education. Moreover, it was noticed that crowding points resulted in traffic density and air pollution, which may affect the pandemic spread. The accuracy assessment results displayed that, the environmental predicted scenario was more consistent with the official data of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population) MOHP), while the residential one was less convenient. The result of this study supports the health sector by predicting the hot spots areas. The present study is aimed to develop a proactive plan to confront the pandemic before spreading in the Cairo governorate-Egypt. Also, the proposed prediction model can be an effective aid for decision-makers across the world working on containment strategies to minimize the spread of Coronavirus.

Analysis and forecasting of confirmed, death, and recovered cases of COVID-19 infections in Nigeria: Implications for university administrators.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) disease outbreak was a public health emergency of international concern which eventually evolved into a pandemic. Nigeria was locked down in March, 2020 as the country battled to contain the spread of the disease. By August 2020, phase-by-phase easing of the lockdown was commenced and university students will soon return for academic activities. This study undertakes some epidemiological analysis of the Nigerian COVID-19 data to help the government and university administrators make informed decisions on the safety of personnel and students.The COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered were obtained from the website of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from April 2, 2020 to August 24, 2020. The infection rate, prevalence, ratio, cause-specific death rate, and case recovery rate were used to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in Nigeria. Exponential smoothing was adopted in modeling the time series data and forecasting the pandemic in Nigeria up to January 31, 2021.The results indicated that the pandemic had infection rate of at most 3 infections per 1 million per day from April to August 2020. The death rate was 5 persons per 1 million during the period of study while recovery rate was 747 persons per 1000 infections. Analysis of forecast data showed steady but gradual decrease in the daily infection rate and death rate and substantial increase in the recovery rate, 975 recoveries per 1000 infections.In general, the epidemiological attributes of the pandemic from the original data and the forecast data indicated optimism in the decrease in the rate of infection and death in the future. Moreover, the infection rate, prevalence and death rate in January 2021 coincided with the predictions based on the analysis. Therefore, the Nigerian government is encouraged to allow universities in the country to reopen while university administrators set up the necessary protocols for strict adherence to safety measures.

Comparison of positive SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate with environmental and socioeconomic factors in northern Illinois

Early studies showed positive associations fine particulate matter (PM2.5), course particulate matter PM10, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and Ozone (O3) concentrations with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) confirmed cases in the United States. One study showed that a1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 is associated with an 8% increase in the COVID-19 death rate. Specifically, Chicago and surrounding suburbs have been labeled hot spots in the United States and correlation with air pollutants concentration will help identify specific communities most at risk. A number of studies have identified demographic variables associated with increased positive SARS-CoV-2 and the importance of air quality and socioeconomic factors must be further understood for more targeted public health responses. The results of this analysis noted positive relationships between zip code SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate and environmental and demographic EJ indicators. Evaluation of race and SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate at the zip code level found positive moderate correlations for ethnic minority individuals.