Income Transfer Programs Research Articles

Future of work in 2050: thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic

AbstractWork has been continuously changing throughout history. The most severe changes to work occurred because of the industrial revolutions, and we are living in one of these moments. To allow us to address these changes as early as possible, mitigating important problems before they occur, we need to explore the future of work. As such, our purpose in this paper is to discuss the main global trends and provide a likely scenario for work in 2050 that takes into consideration the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study was performed by thirteen researchers with different backgrounds divided into five topics that were analyzed individually using four future studies methods: Bibliometrics, Brainstorming, Futures Wheel, and Scenarios. As the study was done before COVID-19, seven researchers of the original group later updated the most likely scenario with new Bibliometrics and Brainstorming. Our findings include that computerization advances will further reduce the demand for low-skill and low-wage jobs; non-standard employment tends to be better regulated; new technologies will allow a transition to a personalized education process; workers will receive knowledge-intensive training, making them more adaptable to new types of jobs; self-employment and entrepreneurship will grow in the global labor market; and universal basic income would not reach its full potential, but income transfer programs will be implemented for the most vulnerable population. Finally, we highlight that this study explores the future of work in 2050 while considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Construction and validation of a perceived financial well-being scale (PFWBS)

PurposeThe aim of the study is to build and validate a perceived financial well-being scale (PFWBS).Design/methodology/approachA total of 34 items were developed on a five-point Likert scale. Validation involved two phases and four steps. In the qualitative phase, interviews, validation by specialists and the pre-test were carried out. In the quantitative phase, a sample of 1,020 cases was used in the exploratory stage and another sample of 2,293 individuals in the confirmatory validation stage.FindingsThe PFWBS is composed of 23 items distributed in four dimensions (financial security, financial tranquility, financial freedom and satisfaction with financial management) that identify the perception of financial well-being of the consumers of financial products.Practical implicationsThe authors propose a methodological framework that allows researchers, managers and policy makers to use the indicator to assess citizens' perception of financial well-being.Social implicationsThe PFWBS can be useful in evaluating the results of different public policies, such as income transfer programs and financial education policies. It can also serve as a parameter for the financial system to assess the perception of its customers, helping to evaluate products and services.Originality/valueFinancial well-being lacks valid measurement scales in the literature. This study advances by creating a scale for the assessment of the perception of financial well-being, which can be applied in different contexts.

Fraud detection in social income transfer programs: a social data mining approach applied to data from Brazil

Fraud detection in social income transfer programs: a social data mining approach applied to data from Brazil

The COVID-19 infodemic in Brazil: trends in Google search data.

BackgroundSince the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, there has been much information about the disease and the virus has been in the spotlight, shared and commented upon on the Internet. However, much of this information is infodemics and can interfere with the advancement of the disease and that way that populations act. Thus, Brazil is a country that requires attention, as despite the fact that in almost two years of pandemic it has shown a devastating numbers of deaths and number of cases, and generates false, distorted and malicious news about the pandemic. This work intends to understand the attitudes of the Brazilian population using infodemic queries from the Google Trends search tool and social and income variables.MethodsData from infodemic research carried out on Google Trends, between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, with socioeconomic data, such as income and education, were unified in a single database: standardization and exploratory and multivalued techniques based on grouping were used in the study.ResultsIn the analysis of the search trend of infodemic terms, it is clear that the categories of Prevention and Beliefs should stand out in Brazil, where there is a diverse culture. It is followed by the COVID-19 Treatment category, with treatments that were not those recommended by the authorities. Income transfer programs and information on socioeconomic variables did not have much impact on infodemic surveys, but it was observed that states where President Bolsonaro has more supporters had researched more infodemic information.ConclusionsIn a country as geographically large as Brazil, it is important that political authorities go to great lengths to disseminate reliable information and monitor the infodemic in the media and on the internet. It was concluded that the denial of the pandemic and the influence of political leaders influenced the search for infodemic information, contributing to a disorganization in the control of the disease and prevention measures.

Conditional Income Transfer Program as a Means to Development in Brazil: An Intersection With Amartya Sen’s Concepts

The paper aims to examine the ability of income transfer programs in promoting development. More specifically, it utilizes the conception of development defended by Amartya Sen, to confirm or not the hypothesis that the Brazilian approach with the structuring of the Bolsa Familia Program serves the purpose of promoting the economic and social development of the country. For this purpose, the methodology used will be deductive, based on bibliographic research and official data. The article begins by analyzing how income distribution policies operate in the expansion of real freedoms and, more specifically the Brazilian reality with the Bolsa Familia Program, a public policy of direct income transfer, aimed at families in situations of poverty and extreme poverty throughout Brazil, which seeks to guarantee these families the right to food and access to education and health. It then exposes Sen’s conception of what is development, which goes beyond narrower views that limits it to GNP growth or industrialization, encompassing this perspective in a broader concept of development as a process of expanding the real freedoms that people enjoy. In the end, the paper makes an intersection of the Bolsa Familia Programs with Sen’s concept of development, presenting as a final result the conclusion that the program proved to be a relevant tool in removing causes of deprivation of freedom and, therefore, is a move in the right direction of the development process.

Poverty and income distribution incidence of the COVID-19 outbreak: investigating socially responsible policy alternatives for Turkey

ABSTRACT To counterbalance the deep systemic global crisis triggered by the COVID-19, many countries introduced a vast arsenal of fiscal policy instruments coupled with monetary accommodation. Yet, Turkey’s response had almost exclusively relied on credit expansion and loan guarantees while minimizing the role of fiscal policy. Within that context, this article has three interrelated objectives. Firstly, we evaluate the effects of the crisis and the implemented policies on poverty and income distribution. Second, we measure the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on the Turkish economy through a general equilibrium model. We find that these policies had a limited impact on reducing crisis-induced poverty. Finally, we propose alternatives to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which are compatible with fiscal constraints. Our results suggest that by pursuing a targeted fiscal income transfer programme covering wage earners and small-sized enterprises, Turkey could have achieved a more egalitarian and effective response to the Covid-19 crisis.

Income transfer programme for children and adolescents with disabilities in Brazil.

In Brazil, there are 55 million people living in extreme poverty. People with disabilities are doubly impacted by low income and the presence of the disability. The Continuous Cash Benefit Program (BPC) is an aid granted by the Brazilian federal government to people who attest to the condition of disability as an impediment to a life on an equal basis with other individuals. Requests to BPC are made to the national competence body that carries out an expert medical and social assessment, by means of an instrument that determines the degree of the disability. Our objective was to analyse the standard of BPC concessions for children and young people with disabilities and to identify the prevalence of major diseases in the concessions. The exploratory, cross-sectional and retrospective research used primary data collected from 332 expert medical assessments of children under 16 years old. The standard and determinants of the concessions were established through Cluster Analysis by Ward's criterion and Euclidean distance, specifying the homogeneous groups of dysfunction classes. The prevalence of major diseases was performed by frequency analysis according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). The socioeconomic profile of BPC requirements and the main causes of BPC rejection were analysed through descriptive analysis. There was a predominance of male, preschoolers and illiterate individuals in the requirements and concessions. In the granting standard for impaired function class, problems related to congenital changes received benefits even in the absence of impairment, with childhood autism being the most prevalent diagnosis. The concessions seemed more dependent on the diagnosis itself and on the age of the beneficiaries than on the degree of dysfunction suffered, without exclusions, by the individuals.

Acesso aos benefícios e programas governamentais e insegurança alimentar nas áreas rurais e urbanas do Nordeste brasileiro

Abstract This paper analyzes food insecurity (FI) in urban and rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil associated with certain social determinants and access to governmental benefits/programs. Data about FI from the National Household Budget Survey (2017-2018) were analyzed, including socio-economic variables and access to government benefits/programs of supplemental income (Bolsa Família, Ongoing transfer benefits, Food voucher and Food basket). Multinomial logistic regression models were performed to assess the relationship between FI and access to government programs/benefits. Half of the families in the Northeast were classified as being subject to FI, the prevalence and severity being higher in rural households. The composition of the family, with at least one retired individual, significantly reduced the probability of being FI at all levels of severity. Access to the Food basket (in cash) benefit and Bolsa Família was associated with being a factor of protection against severe FI in rural areas, while in urban areas the food voucher benefit was the main factor of protection. Income transfer programs and access to social benefits contribute to combatting FI, highlighting the importance of maintaining and scaling-up these initiatives for vulnerable populations.

Access to governmental programs/benefits and food insecurity in urban and rural areas of Northeast Brazil.

This paper analyzes food insecurity (FI) in urban and rural areas of the Northeast region of Brazil associated with certain social determinants and access to governmental benefits/programs. Data about FI from the National Household Budget Survey (2017-2018) were analyzed, including socio-economic variables and access to government benefits/programs of supplemental income (Bolsa Família, Ongoing transfer benefits, Food voucher and Food basket). Multinomial logistic regression models were performed to assess the relationship between FI and access to government programs/benefits. Half of the families in the Northeast were classified as being subject to FI, the prevalence and severity being higher in rural households. The composition of the family, with at least one retired individual, significantly reduced the probability of being FI at all levels of severity. Access to the Food basket (in cash) benefit and Bolsa Família was associated with being a factor of protection against severe FI in rural areas, while in urban areas the food voucher benefit was the main factor of protection. Income transfer programs and access to social benefits contribute to combatting FI, highlighting the importance of maintaining and scaling-up these initiatives for vulnerable populations.

Factors associated with early childhood development in municipalities of Ceará, Brazil: a hierarchical model of contexts, environments, and nurturing care domains in a cross-sectional study

This study aims to identify the contexts, environments, and nurturing care predictors that determine whether a child is developmentally on track in Ceará, Brazil. We analysed data from a cross-sectional study conducted with caregivers of 6,447 children aged 0-59 months during a vaccination campaign in Ceará in October 2019. The validated Child Development Assessment Questionnaire was used to assess early childhood development (ECD) and children with a z-score ≥ -1 SD were considered developmentally on track. We conducted logistic regression models to understand the effects of contexts, environments, and nurturing care domains on ECD. Children in the early years (< 36 months) were more likely to meet the ECD milestones if they were not born with low birth weight (AOR: 0·64; 95% CI: 0·42-0·97), were exposed to manufactured toys in their house (2·68; 1·97-3·66), their heads of household were employed (1·61; 1·16-2·23), and their caregivers had read the Child Health Handbook (1·42; 1·13-1·77) and engaged them in stimulating activities (1·71; 1·26-2·32). Children aged 36-59 months were more likely to meet the ECD milestones if they were breastfed (never: ref. / < 3 months: 3·72; 1·91-7·26 / 3-5 months: 3·21; 1·74-5·93 / 6-11 months: 3·73; 1·95-7·16 / ≥ 12 months: 3·89; 2·25-6·72), had books at home (0: ref / 1-3: 1·71; 1·22-2·40 / 4-6: 2·24; 1·27-3·94 / 7+: 2·71; 1·05-7·00), and their caregivers received information about ECD (1·49; 1·11-2·01) and engaged them in stimulating activities (1·80; 1·27-2·56). Children aged 36-59 months were less likely to meet developmental milestones if they watched TV or used tablets/smartphones for more than two hours per day (0·61; 0·44-0·84), played with household objects (0·62; 0·41-0·92), participated in governmental early childhood programmes aimed at vulnerable families (0·62; 0·45-0·86), had families that participated in income transfer programmes (0·68; 0·47-0·99) (families living in poverty or extreme poverty), and their caregivers considered slapping (0·67; 0·48-0·94) a necessary disciplinary method. Having favourable socioeconomic conditions, breastfeeding, the absence of harsh discipline, caregivers who provide responsive care, and the provision of opportunities for early learning are the key factors that increase the likelihood of a child achieving their full developmental potential in Ceará, Brazil. This study was supported by the Maria Cecília Souto Vidigal Foundation (F0245), Brazil. The funder had no role in the design, analysis, or writing of this article.

FORMAÇÃO DE TRABALHADORES, SISTEMA EDUCACIONAL E POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS. A EJA NA ARGENTINA NOS PRIMEIROS ANOS DE SÉCULO XXI

The link between Youth and Adult Education and work requires a comprehensive approach in political and pedagogical terms. For 20 years, social policies in Argentina have been repeating a scheme based on the educational consideration of the Conditional Income Transfer Programs that have not managed to modify the occupational possibilities of the workers and in turn give them a place of dependency or subordination to the education regarding work. The concern from the educational field does not lie only in how educational devices are included in social programs, but in what is the approach that gives meaning to that inclusion. Keywords: education – work – youth – adults - politics

Linkage Between 2 Information Systems: Combined Live Births and Food and Nutrition Surveillance as a Public Health Tool for Investigation of the Determinants of Obesity Among Children and Adolescents in Southern Brazil.

Childhood obesity has been growing steadily, at an earlier age, and currently comprises a public health issue. A number of studies have pointed to perinatal factors as possible determinants in the development of childhood obesity. To evaluate the influence of perinatal factors on the development of obesity in children and adolescents in southern Brazil. Retrospective cohort study in which a linkage was made between anthropometric data of children and adolescents aged 0 to 15 years who had been registered in the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN) from 2008 to 2016 and their perinatal data registered in the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) from 2000 to 2014. The SINASC was used to extract maternal covariables (age, schooling, marital status), prenatal variables (parity and number of prenatal visits), and perinatal variables (type of delivery, sex, and birth weight). Variables such as age, inclusion in the Bolsa Família income transfer program, and the number of anthropometric evaluations were extracted from SISVAN. The sample comprised 537 children and adolescents. The median age was 8 years (interquartile range: 2-11 years). The prevalence of obesity was 15.1%. Poisson regression revealed a higher risk of obesity in children born via cesarean delivery (relative risk [RR] = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.01-2.17), children of primiparous mothers (RR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.16-2.53), girls (RR = 1.77; 95% CI:1.21-2.60), and those aged between 5 and 9 years (RR = 26.8; 95% CI: 3.75-191.55) and older than 10 years (RR = 20.74; 95% CI: 2.89-148.61). The linkage between SINASC and SISVAN allowed identification of prenatal and perinatal risk factors for the development of childhood obesity. These findings should contribute to the development of health promotion and prevention policies.

AUXÍLIO EMERGENCIAL - IMPACTOS NA RENDA E NO ICMS

The literature has shown that public policy programs based on social protection for the most needy, provide a reduction in income inequalities, as long as these policies bring neutrality to fiscal policy, that is, they do not increase the public deficit. The instruments of social protection, especially those of direct income transfer to the most needy, may result in an increase in consumption by the poorest classes, and consequently an improvement in tax revenue, especially in the collection of ICMS, consumption tax . So, we intend to show here that emergency aid, which is a temporary income transfer program implemented by the Federal Government to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, had direct implications for the economy; especially in improving the income of the most needy and a return, in part of the benefit, to the revenues of the States, in the form of taxation. Said Emergency Aid minimized the drop in collection, or even maintained the collection levels of ICMS, the most important tax of the States, which contributed to the revenue of these federated entities. As a result of the fiscal problems caused, Emergency Aid heated the economy and boosted consumption in order to keep the state ICMS tax collection at even higher levels, in many states, compared to the pre-pandemic period. The objective is to outline an empirical strategy to measure the impact that the emergency aid had on the collection of ICMS, that is, to measure the sensitivity of the variation of the ICMS of the States due to the injection of resources of this transfer program.

The Association between Conditional Cash Transfer Programmes and Cohort Fertility: Evidence from Brazil

Brazil’s Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) aims to combat poverty and social inequalities through monetary transfers to families. A much-discussed indirect effect of the programme was its correlation to the fertility of the beneficiary families. In this paper, we use a cohort fertility approach with parity progression ratios that differs from existing literature, which mainly used period fertility measures, to better understand the relationship between fertility and the BFP. This study analyses the relationship between the BFP and the reproduction of Brazilian women. We use data from the 2010 Brazilian micro-censuses, the only census after the start of the BFP in 2004, to reconstruct the childbirth history of women with incomplete reproductive cycles (women aged 25 to 29), and estimate parity progression ratios (PPRs) and cohort fertility rates (CFR). In addition, we estimate propensity score matching (PSM) models comparing fertility outcomes of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the programme. Our results show distinct differences in CFRs and PPRs. On average, BFP beneficiaries had more children than women not covered by the programme. This finding remained consistent even after controlling for educational gradients and other covariates. Our empirical findings show that women opt for a “rational” strategy, where they tend to have children in more rapid succession up until three children. These findings contradict the recent literature that has not found any correlation between BFP and fertility. The results also suggest that cohort analyses may fill certain gaps left by previous studies of period fertility. This paper is one of a few that have analysed the relationship between a conditional income transfer programme and cohort measures in Brazil.

Granting the future? The temporality of cash transfers in the South African Countryside

In the past five years, anthropologists from the global South have come to consider public cash transfer programs as an alternative to both work-centered policies and national development projects. These studies suggest that grants today go beyond the domain of traditional social policies and government bureaucracy and point to a new future in view of the scarcity of work. This future has become even closer with the pandemic of COVID-19, and with governments, non-governmental entities and the political left reaffirming the importance of a basic universal income. Considering these discussions, my article focuses on an income transfer program in South Africa after the Apartheid period, placing an ethnographic account in relation to the design of a 'progressive' policy of social grants. I present a longer history of salaried work in relation to rural African households and show how the emancipatory promises of cash transfer projects were read as a risk to local traditions and morals. In addition to this reduction in political hopes invested in transfers, I examine the temporal aspect of cash transfers, as well as the possible futures they evoke. By considering the futures that grants enable, I conclude by suggesting that it is premature to affirm that they have overcome wage work and its attendant sociality.

Are Sufficient Statistics Necessary? Nonparametric Measurement of Deadweight Loss from Unemployment Insurance

Central to the welfare analysis of income transfer programs is the deadweight loss associated with possible reforms. To aid analytical tractability, its measurement typically requires specifying a simplified model of behavior. We employ a complementary “decomposition” approach that compares the behavioral and mechanical components of a policy’s total impact on the government budget to study the deadweight loss of two unemployment insurance policies. Experimental and quasi-experimental estimates using state administrative data show that increasing the weekly benefit is more efficient (with a fiscal externality of 53 cents per dollar of mechanical transferred income) than reducing the program’s implicit earnings tax.

AUXÍLIO EMERGENCIAL - IMPACTOS NA RENDA E NO ICMS

The literature has shown that public policy programs based on social protection for the most needy, provide a reduction in income inequalities, as long as these policies bring neutrality to fiscal policy, that is, they do not increase the public deficit. The instruments of social protection, especially those of direct income transfer to the most needy, may result in an increase in consumption by the poorest classes, and consequently an improvement in tax revenue, especially in the collection of ICMS, consumption tax . So, we intend to show here that emergency aid, which is a temporary income transfer program implemented by the Federal Government to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, had direct implications for the economy; especially in improving the income of the most needy and a return, in part of the benefit, to the revenues of the States, in the form of taxation. Said Emergency Aid minimized the drop in collection, or even maintained the collection levels of ICMS, the most important tax of the States, which contributed to the revenue of these federated entities. As a result of the fiscal problems caused, Emergency Aid heated the economy and boosted consumption in order to keep the state ICMS tax collection at even higher levels, in many states, compared to the pre-pandemic period. The objective is to outline an empirical strategy to measure the impact that the emergency aid had on the collection of ICMS, that is, to measure the sensitivity of the variation of the ICMS of the States due to the injection of resources of this transfer program.

Health services, intersectoriality and social control: a comparative study on a conditional income transfer program.

The Bolsa Família Program (BFP) is one of the largest conditional cash transfer programs in the world, providing cash transfers and intersectoral actions. The aim of this study was to compare whether there is a difference in access to health services, intersectoral actions and social control, between families entitled or not, to the BFP. A cross-sectional study was carried out. A representative sample of a peripheral, socioeconomically vulnerable population from a large urban center in southeastern Brazil was calculated, totaling 380 families. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests and multiple correspondence analysis were used to compare groups. Families entitled to the BFP had worse living conditions in general and greater access to health services, such as: medical care (p-value 0.009), community healthcare agent (p-value 0.001) and home visits (p-value 0.041). Being entitled or not affected the variability in the pattern of access to services by 31%; low access to intersectoral actions was identified in both groups; social control was incipient. There was an adequate focus on the program; greater access to health services was related to compliance with conditionalities; low access to intersectoral actions can restrict the interruption of the cycle of intergenerational transmission of poverty.

Insegurança alimentar e nutricional

O presente estudo busca analisar a dinâmica das políticas de interface com a alimentação e nutrição no contexto da pandemia e suas interferências no cenário de Insegurança Alimentar e Nutricional (InSAN). Trata-se de uma pesquisa documental na qual elencou-se como fontes primárias de dados, documentos disponíveis em sites institucionais e textos divulgados em meios de comunicação jornalísticos. Desta forma, incluíram-se: legislações e textos jornalísticos digitais. Após a leitura exploratória dos documentos, foram delimitados os seguintes eixos de análise: Impactos da Emenda Constitucional no 95/2016 na atual crise sanitária; as políticas de alimentação e nutrição durante a pandemia e programas de transferência de renda e desemprego. Os resultados mostram que a atual crise sanitária agrava o cenário de InSAN, na medida em que as ações assistencialistas são insuficientes para atender a população nos períodos de calamidade pública. Soma-se a esse cenário o contexto anterior a pandemia, em que as necropolíticas de supressão dos direitos contribuíram com o agravo das vulnerabilidades sociais, incluindo a falta de acesso a comida.

Health conditionalities in the Brazilian Income Transfer Program and food and nutritional surveillance: narratives by primary healthcare workers

The study aimed to understand the narratives of primary healthcare workers in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on the challenges and potentialities of food and nutritional surveillance activities in the context of the Brazilian Income Transfer Program, vis-à-vis the limits of its implementation. The study adopted a qualitative, evaluative, and participatory approach. From 2018 to 2019, five focus groups were held with 60 university-level healthcare workers from 24 health units and one focus group with 13 community health agents. The material transcribed from the focus groups was used to construct narratives for each group, producing a synthesis of the core arguments in the discourses. Five hermeneutic groups were later held for validation of the narratives and in-depth discussions. The last meeting identified problems and proposals related to follow-up of the Brazilian Income Transfer Program. In practice, follow-up of the conditionalities is limited to "weighing and measuring" individuals without necessarily conducting a nutritional diagnosis to identify cases of nutritional risk and intervention. Factors contributing to this scenario include practices such as mass assessment ("mutirão") at the end of coverage by Brazilian Income Transfer Program and anthropometric measurements taken by community health agents, with no link to the existing lines of care. A bureaucratic vision of these health conditionalities prevails, merely to guarantee that the family does not lose the benefit and that the program's administrative targets are met. Over the course of the study, the healthcare workers developed a critical analysis of this practice and acknowledge their own potential to care for the families' health and nutrition.