Income Risk Research Articles

Understanding declining household savings rate: a perspective from working hours of married women

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate the contribution of married women’s working hours to the declining savings rate in China over the past decade, using the 2018 CLDS data. Both our OLS and 2SLS results suggest that longer working hours of married women generally decrease the household savings rate. Specifically, we identify a non-linear relationship between work time and the household savings rate. Initially, the household savings rate increases with the working hours of married women, reflecting the income effect of labour supply. However, the savings rate decreases once they work overtime, which can be explained by the substitution effect of market work replacing home production, thereby reducing the fertility intention of married women. The reduction in potential child-rearing needs lowers precautionary savings and increases current household consumption. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that, in the presence of income risk, working overtime has a more pronounced effect on the declining savings rate.

Monetary Policy and Labor Market Friction in a HANK Model

Abstract I develop a two-asset heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market, which extends the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to household consumption. Uninsurable countercyclical unemployment risk plays a crucial role in the transmission of monetary shocks to consumption through a novel channel driven by countercyclical precautionary saving motives. Following an increase in the real interest rate, unconstrained households raise their liquid savings and reduce current consumption to insure against the risk of lower future individual labor income, resulting from longer expected unemployment durations. This mechanism accounts for 16 % of the total decline in consumption in a model calibrated to a realistic wealth distribution. The strength of the countercyclical precautionary saving motive depends on the degree of wage rigidity and the fiscal policy rule in general equilibrium. Additionally, I extend the sequence-space Jacobian algorithm to a continuous-time framework, where the efficiency of constructing partial equilibrium Jacobians is enhanced by a generalized approach to handling a large number of income grid points in the heterogeneous-agent block.

When mobility matters: a look at earnings dynamics across Italian generations

Abstract Drawing on a matched survey–administrative dataset tracking careers from 1975 to 2018, we examine the trends in intragenerational earnings mobility in Italy over the past 40 years. We compare earnings trajectories from age 35 to age 45 via a refined version of the ‘income risk decomposition’ proposed by Austin Nichols in 2008, distinguishing between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ earnings mobility from an individual welfare perspective. Our findings reveal that the long‐run trend of increasing cross‐sectional earnings inequality in Italy has been accompanied by widening persistent disparities within the same generation. For all cohorts of workers, at least 80% of inequality is permanent, reaching nearly 90% for the most recent cohort. We also uncover that a substantial share of individuals—between 25% and 39%—do not benefit from stable upward income mobility during a crucial career phase. This issue has worsened over time, with the last ten cohorts experiencing higher income instability (%) and declining upward mobility (%), largely explained by the growing prevalence of atypical employment arrangements. Furthermore, using intragenerational Great Gatsby curves, we show that cohorts exposed to greater earnings inequality also face more persistent differences and reduced earnings growth, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Risk Analysis of Costs and Income of Clove Farming in Balassuka Village, Tombolopao Subdistrict, Gowa District

This study aims to determine the amount of production costs and income as well as the risk of costs and income of clove farming. This research was conducted in Balassuka Village, Tombolopao District, Gowa Regency for 2 months, namely in September - October 2024. This research method uses purposive sampling, which is a deliberate sample selection technique by taking 30 clove farmers in Balassuka Village, Tombolopao District, Gowa Regency. Data analysis techniques used are production cost analysis, revenue analysis, income analysis and coefficient of variation (CV) analysis.The results showed that: (1) Production costs that have been incurred by clove farmers during one harvest season amounted to Rp.209,993,332 with an average production cost of Rp.6,999,778, while the income earned by clove farmers amounted to Rp.835,806,668 / year with an average income earned by clove farmers is Rp. 27,860,222. (2) The risks faced by farmers in clove farming are cost risk and income risk. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) of the cost risk is obtained at 0.08 (0.08 < 1) while the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of the income risk is 0.05 (0.05 < 1). Then the results of these calculations indicate that the cost and income risks in clove farming borne by farmers are relatively low.

Risk and Income Analysis of Vaname Shrimp Cultivation Business (Litopenaeus vannamei) in Bantan District, Bengkalis Regency

This research was conducted in April 2025 in Bantan District, Bengkalis Regency. This study aimed to calculate the income of vaname shrimp farming and analyze the production and income risk of vaname shrimp farming. The survey method was used in this study. The risk measures used include variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and lower limit, while business income is analyzed using income analysis. The number of samples was 26 respondents, with the selection of census technique samples. The results showed that the respondents' average production of vaname shrimp was 660,558.85 kg/Ha, and the average income was IDR614,516,253 / ha. The coefficient of variation of the results of production risk analysis is 0.0887, with a lower limit of 20,896 kg/Ha. The coefficient of variation from the results of the income risk analysis is 0.1139 with a lower limit of IDR474,445,189/Ha. From the study results, the risk to the production and income of Vaname shrimp farming is relatively low

Income risk of shallot farming in Selopamioro Village, Imogiri Sub-District, Bantul Regency

Abstract This research aims to determine: [1] the income of shallot farming; [2] the risk of shallot farming income; [3] the factors influencing the income of shallot farming in Selopamioro Village, Imogiri Sub-District, Bantul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta. The study primarily employed descriptive statistical methods, with a sample of 40 shallot farmers selected through purposive sampling. The analytical methods used are one sample t-test analysis, analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) and lower limit of income (L), and multiple linear regression analysis. The data analysis calculations show: [1] that the income from shallot farming in Nawungan I and Nawungan II Hamlet in the second planting season 2023 is Rp 7,608,278 with a P-value ≤ α (5%); [2] The CV value is 51.90%, with an L value of -Rp4,356,659; [3] The factors of land area, seed price, manure price, KCl fertilizer price, pesticide price, wage of non-family labor, and education level simultaneously have a positive effect on shallot farming income. Shallot farming income is positively influenced by land area and manure prices, while seed prices and KCl fertilizer prices have a negative impact.

Tinjauan Manajemen Risiko Usahatani Jagung pada Lahan Miring di Desa Bonedaa Kecamatan Suwawa Selatan Kabupaten Bone Bolango

Risk management is essential to anticipate potential risks for corn farmers in Bonedaa Village, Suwawa Selatan Sub-district, and Bone Bolango Regency. One is the risk faced on the sloping land conditions owned by farmers. This study aims to (1) identify the risks farmers face in Bonedaa Village and (2) examine the risk management practices implemented to mitigate risks in corn farming in sloped land in Bonedaa Village. The benefits of this research are that it is a source of information for farmers related to the application of risk management for corn farming carried out on sloping land conditions so that farmers can overcome the risk that will occur. The study was conducted among corn farmers in Bonedaa Village over to Mons from June to July 2024 and involved 34 farmer respondents. The study employed a survey method, utilizing a questionnaire to collect the data. This study applied descriptive analysis to determine the risk encountered by farmers and HIRARC analysis to identify risk management performed within the corn farming risk anticipation in the sloped land. The findings reveal that: (1) farmers in Bonedaa Village face various risks, including production risks caused by increased costs and crop failure. These risks significantly affect profits and losses, where higher production risks correspond to greater income risks, leading to potential losses for farmers. (2) Risk management in Bonedaa Village was analyzed using the HIRARC method, identifying seven key risks faced by farmers: increased labor costs for land clearing, crop failure due to water shortages during prolonged drought, crop damage from heavy rainfall, decreased yields due to pests and diseases, prolonged harvest time due to sloped terrain, increased labor costs during harvest, and high transportation costs due remote, difficult road access. The average risk score was categorized as “High” (10). Additionally, farmers have implemented control measures for some risks, such as increasing labor costs for land clearing and addressing drought and fast issues. However, several risks remain unmanaged due to a lack of knowledge of effective mitigation strategies.

The Catalyst to Activate Rural Economic Vitality: The Impact of Land Transfer on the Consumption Behaviour of Older Farmers in China

Against the backdrop of the current rural economic transformation and the intensification of the ageing process, land transfer, as an important land policy tool, has gradually become a key factor influencing the consumption behaviour of farmers, especially older farmers. Based on the four-period panel data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study uses a two-way fixed-effects model to examine the impact of land transfer (land transfer-out, land transfer-in, and two-way land transfer) on the consumption behaviour of older farmers. This study finds that land transfer-out significantly increases the total consumption of older farmers and promotes subsistence, healthy, and hedonic consumption. In contrast, land transfer-in does not show a significant effect on hedonic consumption. The mechanism test reveals that household income plays a key mediating role in the process of land transfer, affecting the consumption behaviour of older farmers. Two-way land transfer promotes the consumption level and the upgrading of the consumption structure of older farmers through income portfolio optimisation and risk diversification.

Public Debt Dynamics Over the Business Cycle: A Fresh Perspective

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the cyclical nature of the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio is essential for policy decision‐making. This article proposes a theoretical framework to explain the dynamics of the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio over the business cycle by categorising them into three phases. There is a bounded interval within which the public debt‐to‐GDP ratio is in the counter‐cyclical phase, increasing in booms and decreasing in recessions. The debt‐to‐GDP ratio is in the accumulation phase when it is below the interval and in the reduction phase when it is above the interval. Importantly, the accumulation or reduction phase is expected to be followed by the counter‐cyclical phase. The bounded interval is not static, implying the significant recurrence of the counter‐cyclical phase and the time‐varying cyclical properties of the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. This study further proposes an iteration scheme to estimate the interval. Empirical results from five developed and five developing countries indicate that the patterns of the three phases differ across countries but exhibit similar trends within each country group. External factors such as income risks and austerity can change the bounds of the interval, thereby shifting the public debt dynamics to the accumulation or reduction from the counter‐cyclical phase.

Decomposing the Household Herding Behavior in Stock Investment: The Case of China

Financial studies on the herding effect have been very popular for decades, as detecting herding behavior helps to explain price deviations and market inefficiencies. However, studying the herding effect as a single influencing factor is believed to be insufficient to explain the changes in investment behavior, as the herding effect itself may be caused by other influencing factors. In other words, the issue must be studied alongside other factors. In this study, we adopt the quantile regression model to comprehensively understand the herding effect’s influence on household investment in China, and the empirical results indicate that herding behavior leads to different investment outcomes for households in different scenarios. In this analysis, we consider a variety of household characteristics, such as income level and risk tolerance, to provide a nuanced understanding of investment behavior. Additionally, in this study, we explore the interaction between herding behavior and macroeconomic variables. Nevertheless, the results suggest that, if herding behavior can be reduced by the head of the household, profitability can be increased, or at the very least, losses can be reduced.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents

In the past decade, a new paradigm for fiscal and monetary policy analysis has emerged, combining the canonical macro model of income and wealth inequality with the New Keynesian model. These heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) models feature new transmission channels and allow for the joint study of aggregate and distributional effects. We review key developments in this literature through the lens of a canonical HANK model. Monetary and balanced-budget fiscal policy have similar aggregate effects as in the standard New Keynesian model, while deficit-financed fiscal policy is much more expansionary. We discuss the split between direct and indirect effects of policy as well as the implications of cyclical income risk, maturity structure, nominal assets, behavioral frictions, and many other extensions to the model. Throughout, we highlight the benefits of using sequence-space methods to solve and analyze this class of models.

The Effect of Different Saving Mechanisms in Pension Saving Behavior: Evidence from a Life-Cycle Experiment

We examine how institutional saving mechanisms influence retirement saving decisions under bounded rationality and income risk. Using a life-cycle experiment with habit formation and loss aversion, we test mandatory and voluntary binding savings under deterministic and stochastic income. Voluntary commitment improves saving performance only when income is predictable; under uncertainty, it fails to improve performance. Mandatory savings do not raise total saving, as participants reduce voluntary contributions. These results emphasize the role of income smoothing in enabling behavioral interventions to improve long-term financial outcomes.

Impact of Mean Family Income on Cumulative Incidence of Revision After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Socioeconomic inequality and mean family income are important predictors of adverse health outcomes, but few studies to date have examined their role in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Our study assessed whether mean family income is associated with differing incidence of revision after TKA. A national all-payer claims database was used to evaluate primary TKAs between 2010 and 2022. Patients were stratified based on their zip-code-derived mean family incomes into five quintiles using income distribution data from the American Community Survey. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was applied to these cohorts to determine two-year cumulative incidence of revision and corresponding hazard ratios (HR). In 816,319 patients undergoing TKA, the cumulative incidence of revision after two years for the 1st (lowest) to 5th (highest) income quintiles was 2.3, 2.2, 2.1, 2.1, and 1.9%, respectively. The risk of revision was highest for the 1st income quintile (HR: 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09 to 1.25; P < 0.0001) and decreased until it was lowest for the 5th income quintile (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.87; P < 0.0001) when compared to the entire population. Revision for periprosthetic joint infection (1st: HR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.28; P = 0.038 versus 5th: HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.82 to 0.93; P < 0.0001), mechanical failure (1st: HR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.28; P = 0.002 versus 5th: HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.92; P < 0.0001) and periprosthetic fracture (1st: HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.42; P < 0.0001 versus 5th: HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.75 to 0.83; P < 0.0001) revealed similar trends. Our results suggest that lower income quintiles are associated with increased risk of revision up to two years after TKA surgery. The observed inverse correlation between income levels and risk of revision underscores the need for more research and targeted interventions in this area.

Analisis Tingkat Risiko Jeruk Siam di Desa Rantau Panjang Kecamatan Meurebo

Siamese orange farming has high economic potential but also faces various risks that can affect farmers' productivity and income. This study aims to analyze the levels of production risk, price risk, and income risk. The research was conducted in Rantau Panjang Village, Meureubo District, West Aceh Regency, from October 2023 to June 2024. The sample was selected purposively (purposive sampling), as it is the only Siamese orange farming area in Meureubo District. Data were collected through interviews, documentation, and literature studies. The data analysis employed a quantitative approach using the coefficient of variation (CV), variance (S²), standard deviation (S), and lower bound (L). The results showed that the average income of Siamese orange farmers was IDR 11,596,167 per year. The risk analysis indicated that Siamese orange farming had a CV value of less than 0.5 and an L value greater than 0, suggesting that Siamese orange farming in Rantau Panjang Village remains profitable despite the risks faced by farmers.

Modeling Shrimp Income and Disease Risks Prevalence Using Econometric and Machine Learning Approaches: Evidence from Vietnam

Abstract Constrained econometric techniques hamper investigations of disease prevalence and income risks in the shrimp industry. We employ an econometric model and machine learning (ML) to reduce model restrictions and improve understanding of the influence of diseases and climate on income and disease risks. An interview of 534 farmers with the models enables the discernment of factors influencing shrimp income and disease risks. ML complemented the Just-Pope production model, and the partial dependency plots show nonlinear relationships between income, disease prevalence, and risk factors. Econometric and ML models generated complementary information to understand income and disease prevalence risk factors.

Pengaruh Literasi Keuangan, Pendapatan, dan Risiko Investasi Terhadap Keputusan Investasi Reksa Dana Generasi Z Yang Terdaftar di Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI)

Generation Z in Indonesia is increasingly interested in investment, particularly in mutual funds, but still faces challenges such as low financial literacy and a lack of understanding of investment risks. This study aims to analyze the influence of financial literacy, income, and investment risk on mutual fund investment decisions among Generation Z registered with the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI). This research employs a quantitative descriptive method with a causal approach to examine the cause-and-effect relationship between independent variables (financial literacy, income, and investment risk) and the dependent variable (mutual fund investment decisions). The study population consists of Generation Z investors who invest through KSEI, with a sample of 100 respondents selected using a non-probability sampling technique, specifically purposive sampling. Data collection was conducted through questionnaires as the primary instrument, supplemented by secondary data from journals, books, and other sources. The collected data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 29. The research results show that financial literacy, income, and investment risk have a positive and significant influence on mutual fund investment decisions among Generation Z registered with the Kustodian Sentral Efek Indonesia (KSEI).

Spatial Analysis of Tuberculosis, COVID-19, and Tuberculosis/COVID-19 Coinfection in Recife, PE, Brazil.

To verify, through the spatial distribution of cases of tuberculosis, COVID-19, and coinfection, the existence of an association between the risk of illness and income. An analytical ecological study was carried out in Recife, whose unit of analysis was the neighborhood, in the year 2020. The data were collected from the SINAN-TB, NOTIFICA-PE, and IBGE Information Systems. Neighborhoods were grouped into strata according to income through K-means analysis. Incidence rates were calculated. Marshall's Local Empirical Bayesian Smoothing Method was used. Risk ratios were calculated to estimate the magnitude of association between income strata and incidence rates. A heterogeneous pattern of spatial distribution was verified for the three events addressed, compatible with the inequality of income distribution existing in Recife. For COVID-19, the highest incidence rates occurred in the strata of better-income neighborhoods. There was an association with a gradual increase in the incidence rate as income decreased for tuberculosis. Coinfection did not show a gradual increase in the incidence rate as income decreased, but a lower incidence rate was observed in the stratum of better economic conditions. Studies must be carried out to verify the spatial distribution of COVID-19 and its possible association with socioeconomic factors in subsequent years. There was a positive association between low income and the risk of becoming ill from tuberculosis. The lower incidence rate of coinfection in the stratum of the higher-income population suggests that the pre-existence of TB contributes to illness by COVID-19 in the low-income population.

Longitudinal Income Dynamics and Risk of End-Stage Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: A South Korean Population-Based Cohort Study.

Longitudinal Income Dynamics and Risk of End-Stage Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes: A South Korean Population-Based Cohort Study.

Synergistic approach to increasing the investment attractiveness of an enterprise in the digital environment

The current challenges caused by military actions, economic instability and digital transformation make it difficult to attract investment in domestic enterprises. Traditional approaches to assessing investment attractiveness no longer guarantee the expected results, which necessitates the integration of digital technologies into the financial planning process. The purpose of the study is to substantiate and develop practical recommendations for increasing the investment attractiveness of an enterprise in the digital environment by applying a synergistic approach that takes into account the current economic realities of Ukraine and contributes to ensuring sustainable business development. The object of the study is the financial and economic condition of enterprises, which is analyzed through the assessment of investment attractiveness, taking into account the impact of digital technologies, innovative strategies and risk management. The analysis of financial statements of LLC “Kharkiv Specialized Installation and Maintenance Enterprise” for 2021-2023 was used to assess changes in financial indicators. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of income, cost structure and investment risks in the context of digitalization was carried out. The results obtained indicate positive changes in the financial and economic activities of the enterprise, in particular, an increase in net income by 43,82% and an increase in the efficiency of resource management. The analysis showed that the integration of digital technologies such as Big Data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain significantly improves financial forecasting, risk management, and optimization of enterprise resources. The main challenges remain the high cost of implementing digital solutions, the need to adapt to rapid changes in the market environment, and ensuring cybersecurity. The practical value of the study lies in the formulation of recommendations for Ukrainian enterprises on the implementation of digital strategies to improve investment attractiveness. The proposed synergistic approach ensures comprehensive management of financial flows and optimization of investment processes, which contributes to sustainable business development even in conditions of economic instability. The results obtained can be used to develop strategies for the digital transformation of enterprises and improve methodological approaches to financial planning. They serve as a basis for adapting international sustainable development practices and attracting investments into the national economy.

Ethnic variations in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and associations with prevalent CVD and CVD mortality in the United States.

To explore the association between ethnicity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including physical inactivity, obesity, hypertension, type 2 diabetes (T2D), lack of health insurance and low family income in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2011-2020, n = 17,355) were classified as having CVD risk factors based on both self-reported and metabolic data. Ethnic differences in how these CVD risk factors relate to prevalent CVD and CVD mortality was examined in Whites, Blacks, Asians and Hispanics. Compared to Whites, significant disparities were noted in several CVD risk factors in ethnic minorities, such as lower PA, lower income, and more prevalent metabolic risk factors. Blacks and Hispanics commonly had higher prevalent CVD risk as compared to Whites even after adjusting for income and metabolic risk factors. Physical inactivity was most strongly associated with prevalent CVD and CVD mortality among Whites and Blacks. There were no ethnic differences in the inverse association between income and prevalent CVD risk, but Blacks with low income were associated with the greatest elevated CVD mortality. Hypertension and T2D were similarly related with prevalent CVD across ethnic groups, but Blacks and Hispanics with hypertension or T2D were at greater CVD mortality risk as compared to Whites. Our study identified that socioeconomic and metabolic risk factors may relate differently to CVD outcomes among ethnic minority groups in the United States. Addressing these ethnic disparities in health warrants further investigation.