Incidence Of Seasonal Influenza Research Articles

A new hybrid model SARIMA-ETS-SVR for seasonal influenza incidence prediction in mainland China.

Seasonal influenza is a serious public health issue in China. This study aimed to develop a new hybrid model for seasonal influenza incidence prediction and provide reference information for early warning management before outbreaks. Data on the monthly incidence of seasonal influenza between 2004 and 2018 were obtained from the China Public Health Science Data Center website. A single seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and a single error trend and seasonality (ETS) model were built. On this basis, we constructed SARIMA, ETS, and support vector regression (SARIMA-ETS-SVR) hybrid model. The prediction performance was determined by comparing mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE) indices. The optimum SARIMA model was SARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,1)12. Error trend and seasonality (ETS) (M,A,M) was the SARIMA optimal model. For the fitting performance, the SARIMA-ETS-SVR hybrid model achieved the lowest values of MAE, MSE, and RMSE, in addition to the MAPE. In terms of predictive performance, the SARIMA-ETS-SVR hybrid model had the lowest MAE, MSE, MAPE, and RMSE values among the three models. The study demonstrated that the SARIMA-ETS-SVR hybrid model provides better generalization ability than a single SARIMA model and a single ETS model, and the predictions will provide a useful tool for preventing this infectious disease.

Lesson learned from the pandemic: Isolation and hygiene measures for COVID-19 could reduce the nosocomial infection rates in oncology wards

It was previously demonstrated that seasonal influenza incidence was significantly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly due to respiratory and hygiene precautions. From this point, we hypothesized that the COVID-19 precautions could lead to a decrease in nosocomial infection rates in oncology inpatient wards. We evaluated the nosocomial infection rates in an inpatient palliative oncology ward in the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in our country and compared this rate with the same time frame of the previous year in our institution. The percentage of nosocomial infections complicating the hospitalization episodes were significantly reduced in the first 3 months of the pandemic compared to the previous year (43 vs. 55 nosocomial infection episodes; 18.6% vs. 32.2%, p = 0.002). The decrease in the nosocomial infections was consistent in the different types of infections, namely pneumonia (4.8% vs. 7.6%), urinary tract infection (5.2% vs. 7.6%), bacteremia (5.2% vs. 7%) and intraabdominal infections (2.6% vs. 3.5%). The median monthly disinfectant use was significantly increased to 98 liters (interquartile range: 82 - 114) in 2020 compared to 72 L (interquartile range: 36 - 72) in 2019 (p = 0.046). The continuation of the simple and feasible hygiene and distancing measures for healthcare workers and patient relatives and adaptations for earlier discharge could be beneficial for preventing nosocomial infections in oncology wards. These measures could be implemented routinely even after the COVID-19 pandemic for patient safety, especially in settings with higher nosocomial infection rates like inpatients palliative care units.

Changes in the incidence of seasonal influenza in response to COVID-19 social distancing measures: an observational study based on Canada\u2019s national influenza surveillance system

ObjectivesSeasonal influenza is an acute respiratory infection that presents a significant annual burden to Canadians and the Canadian healthcare system. Social distancing measures that were implemented to control the 2019–2020 novel coronavirus outbreak were investigated for their ability to lessen the incident cases of seasonal influenza.MethodsWe conducted an ecological study using data from Canada’s national influenza surveillance system to investigate whether social distancing measures to control COVID-19 reduced the incident cases of seasonal influenza. Data taken from three separate time frames facilitated analysis of the 2019–2020 influenza season prior to, during, and following the implementation of COVID-19-related measures and enabled comparisons with the same time periods during three preceding flu seasons. The incidence, which referred to the number of laboratory-confirmed cases of specific influenza strains, was of primary focus. Further analysis determined the number of new laboratory-confirmed influenza or influenza-like illness outbreaks.ResultsOur results indicate a premature end to the 2019–2020 influenza season, with significantly fewer cases and outbreaks being recorded following the enactment of many COVID-19 social distancing policies. The incidence of influenza strains A (H3N2), A (unsubtyped), and B were all significantly lower at the tail end of the 2019–2020 influenza season as compared with preceding seasons (p = 0.0003, p = 0.0007, p = 0.0019).ConclusionSpecific social distancing measures and behaviours may serve as effective tools to limit the spread of influenza transmission moving forward, as they become more familiar.

Trends, patterns, and incidence rate of seasonal influenza among Dubai population and some associated factors, 2017-2-19

Background: WHO estimates that seasonal influenza may result in 290 000-650 000 deaths each year due to respiratory diseases alone. In addition, affected more than 10% of total population annually worldwide, Seasonal influenza is highly contagious disease; spreads easily, with rapid transmission in crowded areas including schools and nursing homes. Objectives: To Study incidence rate, trends and patterns of seasonal influenza among Dubai population for the period 2017-2019, to Study some of the associated factors. Materials & Subjects: A retrospective records review study was carried out of convenience sample of 29158 confirmed seasonal influenza case reported in Emirate of Dubai for the period 2017-2019. All age groups, genders, nationalities, occupations, education and seasons were considered. Findings: The study showed that 53.42% of total seasonal influenza cases were among male groups in Dubai, almost 50% % of the cases were among age group less than 15 years old, and almost one quarter of cases were among the age group between 30-40 years old, the present study showed that 54.37% were among Asian groups, 14.59% of the seasonal influenza incidence in Dubai during 2017-2019 were among Emirati population and 18.79% were among Arabs groups .As per occupation, the study showed that 30.74% of total seasonal influenza cases were among students in Dubai, on the other hand the study revealed that 84.53% of the total seasonal influenza cases during 2017-2019 were handled at outpatient level, yet 15.47% were sever enough cases to be admitted and treated at inpatient facilities. Incidence rate per 100000 population were increased respectively from 2017 through out 2019 (168, 297,466). The study revealed as well that the rate as per nationality the seasonal influenza incidence rate in Dubai from 2017=2019 650/100000 among Jordanian living in Dubai,, almost 50% % of the cases were among age group less than 15 years old, and almost one quarter of cases were among the age group between 30-40 years old, the present study showed that 54.37% were among Asian groups, 14.59% of the seasonal influenza incidence in Dubai during 2017-2019 were among Emirati population and 19.71% were among Arabs groups . The study showed that 30.74% of total seasonal influenza were students in Dubai, 84.53% of the total seasonal influenza cases during 2017-2019 were managed at outpatient. yet 15.47% were sever enough cases to be admitted and treated at inpatient level of different health care facilities in Dubai. Incidence among Egyptian was 557/100000, while among Emirates, 325 /100000, Incidence rate of seasonal influenza 2017-2019 according to age distributions showed that 30.7%among students, and 7.8%among children preschool age, and 5.22%among housewives. The present study showed that the incidence rate of seasonal influenza in Dubai in 2017-2019 as per moth distributions was the highest, 21.4%in November followed by 18.2%in December, and the least was 2%in July. Conclusions: incidence rate of seasonal influenza in Dubai keep increasing during the last three years, the highest rates significantly come from children segment of population specially students and elderly group as well, the period from October to end of February of each years.

A cluster epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection in four captive cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus)

In January 2019, four cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) kept at a Japanese zoo intermittently showed respiratory signs following the incidence of seasonal influenza in animal caregivers. Respiratory materials (saliva, sputum and food tray swabs) were non-invasively collected from the four cheetahs. Although we were unable to isolate the virus, the NP gene of influenza A virus was detected in three of the cheetahs but not in the fourth cheetah that had nearly recovered. From a food tray swab which tested weakly positive by a commercial influenza detection kit, we were able to obtain the whole-genome sequence of the influenza A virus. Analysis of the genome, A/cheetah/Kanagawa/2/2019(H1N1), revealed that the virus was closely related to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from humans in Japan in the 2018-2019 winter. Production of haemagglutinin inhibition (HI) antibodies (64-128 HI) against an A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in plasma samples confirmed infection of all four cheetahs. The animals continued to produce antibodies for at least 314days after disease onset. These findings strongly suggest that reverse zoonotic transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus occurred from human to cheetah and subsequently from cheetah to cheetah in the zoo. We also show that specimens can be safely and non-invasively collected from non-domesticated animals and used to investigate respiratory infectious diseases.

Seasonal Influenza Incidence in India: A Retrospective Study Based on Multiple Indian Hospital and Diagnostic Laboratory Centre

The objective of the study is to understand the seasonal variation in influenza incidence across multiple Indian states by using diagnostic laboratories data of influenza.
 Materials and Methods: Diagnostic laboratory-based data of subjects who were tested for influenza between 1st January April 2014 to December 2017 across seven Indian states were analysed. In diagnostic laboratories of Maharashtra, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan RT-PCR was used for detection of H1N1 and laboratories of Tamil Nadu used GeneXpert along with RT-PCR. A total sample size of 10,755 was used in the descriptive observational retrospective study.
 Results: In case of H1N1, sample population had almost equal male and female proportion (5172) with 36.5 years mean age. In majority of states, >3-5 years age group had the highest positivity rate. Paediatric age group (0-18 years) contributed 25% of total H1N1 burden, while older adults (>60 years) contributed 15% of the total sample. The yearly trends showed a higher incidence rate of H1N1 in 2015, followed by a decline during 2016 and a surge in 2017. Monthly trends showed consistent rise in H1N1 positivity rate during early months (January, February, and March) of 2015, 2016 and 2017. For influenza B, paediatric age group (0-18 years) showed the highest positivity rate and contributed almost 40% of total influenza ‘B’ burden.
 Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of big data-based analytics and its use in understanding the epidemiological behaviour of diseases like influenza. Insight by leveraging laboratories data, like in the case of current research study, gives demographic patterns of influenza in terms of age, gender, seasons, and regions/states.

Epidemiology and cost of seasonal influenza in Germany - a claims data analysis

BackgroundSeasonal influenza contributes substantially to the burden of communicable diseases in Europe, especially among paediatric populations and the elderly. The aim of the present study was to estimate the incidence of seasonal influenza in Germany, the probabilities of related complications and the economic burden of influenza per case and on a population level for different age groups.MethodsClaims data from 2012 to 2014 from > 8 million insured of a large German sick-ness fund were analysed. A matched case control study was used on a sub-sample of 100,000 influenza cases to calculate complication rates for ear infections/acute otitis media (AOM) and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) as well as resource use and costs for seven age groups.ResultsIncidence of seasonal influenza varies between the years and is highest among infants and children 2 to 5 years of age. AOM is more likely in the younger age groups with up to 14% more patients in the influenza group than in the control group. CAP is more frequently observed in the younger age groups and in influenza patients 60 years and older. The manifestation of one influenza complication (AOM or CAP) significantly in-creases the occurrence of a second complication (AOM or CAP). The economic burden per case is highest in infants (€251.91) and persons over 60 years of age (€131.59).ConclusionThe burden of influenza is highest among infants and young children, which is also reflected in the economic burden. Influenza related costs per case are nearly double for infants compared to persons over 60 years of age.

PIN17 - Global Burden of Seasonal Influenza Disease: A Structured Literature Review

To review published data on the global burden of seasonal influenza in terms of epidemiology, economics, and impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The overall incidence of seasonal influenza was estimated from the incidence rates of infected cases in the placebo groups of clinical trials on vaccines and prophylactic antivirals identified in systematic literature reviews. Targeted searches were performed on Medline to assess: the overall economic burden of influenza from observational studies, HRQoL associated with influenza and excess mortality/hospitalization rates during influenza outbreaks based on statistical regression analyses. Geographical scope covered the US, EU5 and Japan. Average incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza was estimated between 3.71% in adults and 35.39% in children over 6 and up to 16 years old (yo). Large variability, related to different factors including season, country and target population, was observed between studies. The incidence rate of hospitalization appeared relatively high in <5 yo children, declined in 5-17 yo children and increased progressively after 18 yo. Patients aged >65 yo had the highest mortality rates. Type A influenza caused more hospitalizations and deaths than type B. Influenza resulted in a significant economic burden, including office visits, laboratory tests, emergency department visits, hospital stays with possible ICU admission, and medications. Major cost components were the productivity costs (absenteeism of infected adults or parents of infected children), the physician visit costs and the hospitalization costs related to influenza or its complications. Although the HRQoL impact of influenza on the infected population is often highlighted in evaluations of influenza vaccines and treatments, data on the HRQoL impact of influenza are scarce. Despite efforts to vaccinate high-risk individuals, influenza remains associated with a substantial public health and economic burden in developed countries, mostly related to complications in high-risk patients, and absenteeism in otherwise healthy patients.

Influenza virus infections from 0 to 2 years of age: A birth cohort study.

Influenza vaccine has been recommended in Finland since 2007 for all children of 6-35 months of age and in 2009 for those ≥6 months against pandemic influenza. We investigated the incidence of influenza and vaccine effectiveness in a birth cohort of children in 2008-2011. We followed 923 children from birth to 2 years of age for respiratory tract infections. A nasal swab sample for PCR for influenza A and B viruses was taken at the onset of acute respiratory infections. Samples were collected either at the study clinic or at home by parents. Vaccination data was retrieved from the health registries. Vaccination coverage of children aged 6-23 months was 22-47% against seasonal influenza and 80% against the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in the pandemic season 2009-2010. During 3 influenza seasons, 1607 nasal swab samples were collected. Influenza was confirmed in 56 (6.1%) of 923 children (16 A(H1N1), 14 A(H3N2), and 26B viruses). The incidence of influenza was 5.1% in 2008-2009, 2.7% in 2009-2010, and 5.0% in 2010-2011. Effectiveness of the adjuvanted vaccine against the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 97% (95% confidence interval, 76-100%). Three children with influenza were hospitalized. The yearly incidence of seasonal influenza was 5% in this cohort of very young children with variable influenza vaccine coverage. Adjuvanted vaccine against the pandemic influenza was highly effective. Both seasonal and pandemic influenza cases were mostly non-severe.

Public health and economic benefits of new pediatric influenza vaccination programs in Argentina

Background: Argentina’s population was heavily affected by the 2009 influenza pandemic, particularly children, in whom incidence of seasonal influenza is consistently high. Following the pandemic, Argentinean national recommendations for pediatric vaccination against A/H1N1 influenza were defined for all children aged up to five years, in line with programs implemented by national authorities elsewhere. Economic evaluations have found that vaccination programs for this population against seasonal influenza are cost-effective, if not cost-saving in many countries. Recently, Argentina decided to routinely vaccinate against influenza children aged 6–23 mo-old. But, the economic value of such strategies for the country has never been assessed. Methods: A model was developed to assess the value of four different vaccination strategies: (1) no pediatric vaccination; (2) vaccination of 6–23 mo-old children; (3) vaccination of 6–36 mo-old children; (4) vaccination of 6 mo−5 y-old children. We first estimated community health benefits of vaccination then we evaluated the economic and quality-of-life impact of these strategies on the population. Data used in the model come from surveillance networks, published literature, national databases and retrospective hospital-based data.Results: Pediatric influenza vaccination benefited not only children but also the overall community, due to decreased disease transmission. Our results showed that the recent decision by Argentina to vaccinate 6–23 mo-old children is cost-effective as would be the incremental vaccination of broader age groups.Conclusions: Results from this study are consistent with previous analyses in other countries confirming that implementing influenza pediatric vaccination programs can be highly cost-effective through individual- and community protection against the disease.

Randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation to prevent seasonal influenza A in schoolchildren

To our knowledge, no rigorously designed clinical trials have evaluated the relation between vitamin D and physician-diagnosed seasonal influenza. We investigated the effect of vitamin D supplements on the incidence of seasonal influenza A in schoolchildren. From December 2008 through March 2009, we conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing vitamin D(3) supplements (1200 IU/d) with placebo in schoolchildren. The primary outcome was the incidence of influenza A, diagnosed with influenza antigen testing with a nasopharyngeal swab specimen. Influenza A occurred in 18 of 167 (10.8%) children in the vitamin D(3) group compared with 31 of 167 (18.6%) children in the placebo group [relative risk (RR), 0.58; 95% CI: 0.34, 0.99; P = 0.04]. The reduction in influenza A was more prominent in children who had not been taking other vitamin D supplements (RR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.79; P = 0.006) and who started nursery school after age 3 y (RR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.78; P = 0.005). In children with a previous diagnosis of asthma, asthma attacks as a secondary outcome occurred in 2 children receiving vitamin D(3) compared with 12 children receiving placebo (RR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.73; P = 0.006). This study suggests that vitamin D(3) supplementation during the winter may reduce the incidence of influenza A, especially in specific subgroups of schoolchildren. This trial was registered at https://center.umin.ac.jp as UMIN000001373.