Important Source Of Risk Research Articles

Spectral Approach to Li–ion Batteries Degradation Rate Estimation

Li–ion batteries are critically important component of modern solar power plant systems with over 30% contribution to the total cost. The uncertainty of Li-ion battery degradation rate is a very important risk source of a solar system. The estimation of degradation rate spectrum is an important practical problem. A two stage approach to degradation spectrum estimation is proposed: on the first stage a probability density is constructed, and on the second stage the signal is averaged with the probability density from the first stage. The problem is reduced to matrix spectrum analysis that does not require a L2 norm to minimize. The technique application is demonstrated on two–stage degradation model and commercial Li-ion battery degradation data.

Heterogeneous Intermediaries and Asset Prices

Canonical intermediary asset pricing models assume a representative intermediary with an SDF linear in its leverage. Yet the leverage of broker-dealers is procyclical whereas the leverage of banking holding companies is countercyclical. I propose an empirically testable heterogeneous intermediary stochastic discount factor (HI-SDF) that depends non-linearly on aggregate leverage as well as net worth shares of individual intermediaries. I show that the HI-SDF emerges from general equilibrium models with heterogeneous intermediaries whereas its specific functional form hinges on different models' specifications of financing constraints. To address this issue, the HI-SDF is estimated semiparametrically. I provide empirical evidence that the wealth distribution among intermediaries is an important source of risk for pricing risky securities. The estimated HI-SDF is found to exhibit substantial explanatory power for cross-sectional variation in expected returns across a wide range of test assets. In contrast to representative intermediary empirical models, the HI-SDF exhibits lower pricing errors and explains larger fractions of the cross-section of expected returns.

English

Risk is a major issue that affects so many aspects of people’s livelihoods in the developing world. It is imminent in all management decisions of agricultural systems, as a result of fluctuations in price, yield and resource uncertainty. Hence, uncertainty, risk aversion and management strategies were investigated among the cocoa farmers in Osun State, Nigeria. Primary data employed in the study were obtained from 102 cocoa farmers selected through a multi-stage sampling technique. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multivariate probit model. Results showed that farmers view rainfall as the most important source of risk and uncertainty and majority of the farmers utilized mixed cropping as a risk management strategy in their farms. The result of multivariate probit model indicated that age of farmer negatively influenced the probability of precautionary savings while household number and access to information determined their choice of social network as risk management decisions used in the farms. The study recommends government policies and institutional mechanisms that reduce risk (such as crop insurance) and those that facilitate farmers’ access to assets like off-farm investments in order to manage risks. Key words: Livelihoods, precautionary savings, social network, mixed cropping, agricultural systems.

Risk contribution of crude oil to industry stock returns

Oil shock is an important source of risk and hence has a significant effect on the real economy and financial markets. The objective of this study is to explore the crude oil risk contribution to industry-level returns in the US stock market using the ADCC-ΔCoVaR model. We employ the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to rank the contribution and then investigate the structural breakpoints using the Bai and Perron (2003) test. Our empirical results reveal that oil contributes the highest risk to the energy industry and the lowest risk to the Consumer Staples industry. We also find notable discrepancies between industries with regard to number of breakpoints and the break date. In particular, the rankings of the financial, materials, and utilities industries fluctuate dramatically across different sub-samples. In addition, the crude oil risk contribution was commonly larger across all these industries during the 2008 crisis period. Our findings are helpful to investors, market participants, and policy makers.

Determination of the role of Salmonella enterica plasmids in antibiotic susceptibility and Caenorhabditis elegans pathogenicity

Poultry animals and poultry associated products are important risk sources for Salmonellosis. S.Kentucky and S.Infantis are among the serovars frequently isolated from retail chickens and were reported to be isolated in Turkey. In this study, the role of plasmids carried by S.Kentucky and S.Infantis isolates in antibiotic resistance profiles of the isolates and their pathogenicity on Caenorhabditis elegans nematode model system were investigated. The isolates used, 1 of Kentucky and 2 of Infantis serotypes, were selected among food-borne Salmonella isolated from chicken carcass in Edirne. All three isolates were previously shown to contain plasmids carrying multidrug resistance and were known to be pathogenic on C.elegans nematode model system. S.Kentucky A10 isolate was resistant to ampicillin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, ciprofloxacin, trimethoprim and sulphonamide and carried one plasmid with 31.6 kb size. S.Infantis A15 isolate was resistant to ampicillin, streptomycine, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, neomycin, sulphonamide and kanamycin and carried a plasmid with 19.9 kb size while the other S.Infantis isolate (A16) was resistant to streptomycin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, trimethoprim, neomycin, sulphonamide and kanamycin and carried 3 plasmids with 42.4, 1.5 and 1.2 kb sizes. Plasmid curing experiments were performed to investigate the role of plasmids in antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity in C.elegans. Ethidium bromide (EtBr) dye was used as the plasmid curing agent. Plasmids were isolated from cultures grown in LB broth with different concentrations of EtBr (50, 75, 100, 125 µg/ml) according to the Kado-Liu method and the most effective EtBr concentration was determined as 125 µg/ml. C.elegans pathogenicity assays were carried out using plasmid cured isolates. The time 50% of the nematode die (TD50) values of the nematode groups fed with plasmid cured isolates were compared with previously obtained TD50 values of the nematode groups fed with wild type Salmonella isolates. Studentðs t-test (p< 0.05) was used to showthe level of significance between TD50 values of the two groups. TD50 values of the positive control group fed with S.Typhimurium ATCC 14028 and the negative control group fed with Escherichia coli OP50 were found as 4.0 ± 0.4 and 8.0 ± 0.02 days, respectively. The differences between TD50 values of nematode groups fed with wild type and plasmid cured isolates were statistically significant both for S.Kentucky (A10) (4.9 ± 0.04-6.2 ± 0.1) and S.Infantis (A16) (4.4 ± 0.01-6.2 ± 0.2) (p< 0.05) strains, but no significant difference was observed for the groups fed with wild type and plasmid cured S.Infantis (A15) (5.7 ± 0.39-5.8 ± 0.16) strain. Broth microdilution method was used to determine whether there was any change in minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) of the antibiotics for which the isolates were resistant before plasmid elimination. No significant difference was found between the MIC values of the resistant antibiotics among Salmonella isolates carrying plasmids and with cured plasmid. This study is important since the first in vivo results about the role of Kentucky and Infantis serovar plasmids on C.elegans nematode model system were presented.

Integrated SEM-FTOPSIS framework for modeling and prioritization of risk sources in medical device development process

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline and prioritizes risk sources in medical device development (MDD) process using an integrated “structural equation modeling” (SEM) and fuzzy “technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)” framework.Design/methodology/approachRisk sources which deter MDD process are explored through literature review. Initial structural model is proposed, factor loadings are determined by exploratory factor analysis and model fit is established by confirmatory factor analysis. Further, the sources are ranked using FTOPSIS, and sensitivity analysis is carried to check robustness of results.FindingsThe sources of risks have catastrophic effect on MDD process. The initial SEM model developed based on survey of experts is found reliable and valid which breaks up the risk sources into three categories – internal sources of risks, user-related sources of risks and third-party-related sources of risks. The risk sources are ranked and prioritized based on perspective of experts from the categories using FTOPSIS; unmet user needs/requirements is found as the most important source of risk. Results of sensitivity analysis confirm that the factors are relatively less sensitive to criteria weights confirming reliability of initial solution.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed methodology combines qualitative and quantative approaches, making it little complex and lengthy, but results in dual confirmation.Practical implicationsThe outcomes of this research will be of prime use for MDD industries to mitigate risk sources. It will help to increase the success rate of MDD.Originality/valueIntegrated SEM-FTOPSIS provides a unique and effective structural modeling-based decision support tool. The framework can be effectively utilized in other domains, and failure events of medical devices can be potentially controlled by applying risk mitigation measures.

Tail Risks, Asset Prices, and Investment Horizons

We show that the two important sources of risk -- market tail risk and extreme market volatility risk -- are priced in the cross-section of asset returns heterogeneously across horizons. Specifically, we find that tail risk is a short-term phenomenon whereas extreme volatility risk is priced by investors in the long-term. These risks stem from a dependence structures in the joint distribution of stochastic discount factor and asset returns at various investment horizons that are more general than usually assumed by traditional covariance-based measures. The risk premium we document suggests that investors care about the transitory as well as persistent shocks.

English

The importance of risk perception and risk management has been addressed by studies of agriculture and livestock activities; however, there have been few studies in other contexts, such as family agroindustries. This study provides information on risk perception and risk management in family agroindustries in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The analysis involves 72 family agroindustries in 43 counties, and the respondents were the individual decision makers of those organizational units. Twenty eight sources of risks and 28 risk management strategies were analyzed. The results suggested that the country’s current economic situation, inflation/deflation, changes in product prices and the elimination/reduction of government support are the most important sources of risk. The main types of risk management included updating to new technologies, the use of technical support, maintaining/increasing market liquidity for products, and the commercialization of products without mediators. Two sources of risk (low-qualified staff and lack of motivation) and four risk management strategies (commercialization of products without mediators, acquiring certification, improving production practices and maintaining relationships with customers) were identified in the present study, but not found in the literature reviewed. Key words: Agroindustries, food production, risk, risk perception, risk management.

Life Events and Portfolio Rebalancing of the Family Home

Life events may alter the circumstances and life trajectory, depending on their magnitude, duration and whether or not it was foreseen. The responses to these life events are likely to be influenced by personal appraisal of the event, coping skills, access to effective support networks, socio-economic resources and recent and current exposure to other difficult or favourable events or circumstances (Moloney et al., 2012). Much of the household financial decision-making literature concentrates on static models using cross-sectional data, which means that there is little insight into how households react to changing circumstances or respond financially if they experience a significant life event. However, there is a growing body of research that is utilising longitudinal panel data, including repeated cross-sections and dynamic models, to gain insight into household’s portfolio rebalancing responses when they have experienced a financial shock of some sort. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of life events on the portfolio rebalancing of the family home. The high ownership of property in Australian household asset portfolios exposes participants’ levels of wealth to property market fluctuations and interest rate changes, and in some cases owning a home increases the financial stress experienced by the household. Thus, when the household experiences a negative financial shock derived from a life event, the household may be forced to divest or downsize their family home, resulting in a loss of wealth and other intangible benefits like life satisfaction. To quantify households’ portfolio rebalancing response to a life event, a dynamic model is employed that incorporates two lags and two leads of each shock on the ownership of the family home. The investigation of the asset holding before and after the shock determines the magnitude and duration of the impact of the life event on their financial decisions. This research is important as life events (or shocks) such as these may impact dramatically on a household’s financial position. Wealth may increase or divide, spending needs change, new expenditures are formed regarding future income, longevity, and bequests. These transitions constitute an important source of risk, with the potential to affect wealth accumulation, including the demand for (risky) assets.

Risk Spillover Effect of Chinese Commercial Banks: Based on Indicator Method and CoVaR Approach

This paper took the thirteen listed commercial banks in China as the research objects, and used the financial risk measurement method CoVaR to study the risk spillover effect of commercial banks. Firstly, we employed an indicator-method to study the systemic importance changes of the listed banks in the normal and risk periods. It is found that the systemic importance is always closely related to the size of bank’s assets. The application of Cluster Analysis on the indicator score showed that they were divided into two part: four state-owned banks and nine joint-stock banks groups. From the perspective of financial market risk spillover effect caused by relevance, the risk contributions of each bank to the bank groups were calculated by using the quantile regression and CoVaR approaches in two time periods. The results showed that not only the systemically important banks with big asset scale had great risk spillover effect, in the risk period, some of the smaller scale banks had a significant increase in the risk contribution, which would also become an important source of risk. From the normal period to risk period, the risk spillover effects of each bank were obviously enhanced, and the risk contagion between banks rose generally. Therefore, regulators should not only focus on large-scale banks, but also pay attention to those banks with high risk contributions.

Exchange rate exposure of REITs

Abstract In this paper, I examine how foreign exchange rate movements affect U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) returns. I document that REITs returns are adversely affected by U.S. dollar appreciation, regardless of the measurement of the exchange rate changes, of the REIT size and of macro-economic factors. The exchange rate exposures, however, vary significantly among the REIT types and REITs’ property. U.S. dollar appreciation adversely affects equity REITs returns while leaving no significant impact on mortgage REITs and hybrid REITs returns. The exchange rate exposure is especially prominent among health care, industrials-office, residential, retail and self-storage REITs. The findings unveil an important source of risk that REITs are exposed to, demanding more attention from REIT portfolio managers and investors alike.

Seismic behavior of RC building structures designed according to current codes

Earthquakes which recently occurred in highly populated regions show that existing buildings constructed without appropriate seismic resisting characteristics may constitute as an important source of risk and may cause economical loses and casualties. It is recognized the progress of the knowledge in earthquake engineering in the last decades. In this paper, two 6 irregular storey buildings were studied consisting of frame structures, representative of the common practice in Portugal, i.e. designed without considering earthquake actions. Push-over and non-linear time history analyses were done, with non-linear 3-D models in longitudinal and transverse directions. The building responses were analyzed in two different levels: global and local. For the global response analyses: max displacement, inter-storey drift (IS drift), floor rotation for each storey and base shear were compared. For local response four columns were chosen and the variation of axial load in terms of base shear and drift as well as the biaxial demand was considered. The result shows that most variation of axial load happens in corner, facade-X, facade-Y and centre column respectively. It is noteworthy that by increasing the initial axial load the biaxial demand decreases. The seismic vulnerability was analyzed for earthquake of different return periods, and the seismic demands were compared with limit proposed in international codes and conclusion are drafted in terms of safety. The vulnerability assessment based on seismic codes clearly shows that the building 2 presented a better performance with low inter-storey drifts. The main goal of this study is considering the application and methodology for the seismic assessment of existent real buildings. In fact this is an important topic, to understand the seismic vulnerability of certain particularities in existing buildings to assure that the common observation can be applied for a prototype building, especially irregular ones. Also one of the major observations in this study is the comprehension of the effect and importance of biaxial loading in columns and the influence of the axial load variation, relating the position of the columns in plan and in height.

Risk Perception and Management Strategies in Dairy Farming: A Case of Adana Province of Turkey

This study aims to determine and analyse farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies in dairy farming. Data were obtained in 2014 (December) and 2015 (February and March) from face-to-face interviews with 96 dairy farmers in Yüregir and Saricam district of Adana province of Turkey. Factor analysis was used in data reduction to identify a small number of factors related to risk sources and risk strategies in this study. Then, multiple regression model was used to evaluate the influence of socio-economic characteristics and communication behaviour on the farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies using factor loadings. The results of this study show that the most important risk source that the farmers' perceive is variability in feed prices and risk management strategy that the farmers' perceive is take precautions to prevent disease. The results of factor analysis show that the risk scale consists of 8 factors explaining 70.24% of total variance. The internal consistency coefficient Cronbach Alfa of the scale is 0.808 and KMO is 0.732. The risk management scale consists of 6 factors explaining 67.78% of total variance. The internal consistency coefficient Cronbach Alfa of the scale is 0.775 and KMO is 0.746. According to the results, perceptions were farmer-specific, a number of socio-economic variables and communication behaviour are found to be related to risk and risk management. To improve risk management strategies is useful for farmers as well and might help them to avoid many risks and reduce losses.

Neuroscience of resilience and vulnerability for addiction medicine: From genes to behavior.

Addiction is a complex behavioral disorder arising from roughly equal contributions of genetic and environmental factors. Behavioral traits such as novelty-seeking, impulsivity, and cue-reactivity have been associated with vulnerability to addiction. These traits, at least in part, arise from individual variation in functional neural systems, such as increased striatal dopaminergic activity and decreased prefrontal cortical control over subcortical emotional and motivational responses. With a few exceptions, genetic studies have largely failed to consistently identify specific alleles that affect addiction liability. This may be due to the multifactorial nature of addiction, with different genes becoming more significant in certain environments or in certain subsets of the population. Epigenetic mechanisms may also be an important source of risk. Adolescence is a particularly critical time period in the development of addiction, and environmental factors at this stage of life can have a large influence on whether inherited risk factors are actually translated into addictive behaviors. Knowledge of how individual differences affect addiction liability at the level of genes, neural systems, behavioral traits, and sociodevelopmental trajectories can help to inform and improve clinical practice.

Spatio-temporal elements of articulation work in the achievement of repeat prescribing safety in UK general practice.

Prescribing is the most common healthcare intervention, and is both beneficial and risky. An important source of risk in UK general practice is the management of 'repeat prescriptions', which are typically requested from and issued by non-clinically trained reception staff with only intermittent reauthorisation by a clinical prescriber. This paper ethnographically examines the formal and informal work employed by GPs and receptionists to safely conduct repeat prescribing work in primary care using Strauss's (1985, 1988, 1993) concept of 'articulation work' across eight UK general practices. The analytical lens of articulation work provided an investigative framing to contextually map the informal, invisible resources of resilience and strength employed by practice team members in the achievement of repeat prescribing safety, where risk and vulnerability were continually relocated across space and time. In particular, the paper makes visible the micro-level competencies and collaborative practices that were routinely employed by both GPs and receptionists across different socio-cultural contexts, with informal, cross-hierarchical communication usually considered more effective than the formal structures of communication that existed (e.g. protocols). While GPs held formal prescribing authority, this paper also examines the key role of receptionists in both the initiation and safe coordination of the repeat prescribing routine.

Sources of Risk and Management Strategies as Perceived by Monocrop and Intercrop Farmers in Kebbi State, Nigeria

The study examined the sources of risk and management strategies of monocropping and intercopping systems in Kebbi State, Nigeria with the aim of identifying the most important sources of risk and coping s trategies. The study is based on primary data gathered through a questionnaire survey of the sampled farmers in the study area. A multi - stage sampling technique was used to select 256 farmers comprising 98 monocrop farmers and 158 intercrop farmers. A Lik ert - type scale of 1 (not at all) to 5 (very important) was presented to the respondents in order to establish the important sources of risk and risk management strategies of the monocrop and intercrop farmers. The respondents were asked to score a list of 21 and 20 potential risk sources and risk management strategies respectively, according to their importance. The most important risk

Households' Risk Perception of Pig Farming in Vietnam: A Case Study in Quynh Phu District, Thai Binh Province

This research was conducted to explore households' overall perception of risk in pig farming and its relations to households' socioeconomic factors in Vietnam. The results reveal that meat price, epidemic diseases, and production cost are perceived as the most important sources of risk in pig farming. Supports from the government are associated with households' perception of less risk in information, market access and feed quality. Therefore, the government could have an important role to play in encouraging the growth of the pig farming sector by, for example, supporting households in contract farming, establishing information channels, and management market systems.

Patterns of Mortality and Factors Influencing Survival of a Recently Restored Elk Population in Ontario, Canada

AbstractThis study examined patterns of mortality and determinants of survival among elk recently restored to four sites in Ontario, Canada (1998–2005). We predicted that: (1) elk located in release sites closer to the core of their historic range would have higher survival; (2) survival would increase as an animal's time and experience on the landscape increased; and (3) survival rates would decline as animals moved farther away from the release site. During the study, 443 elk were radiocollared and released; 218 mortalities were documented. Predation by wolves was the most important proximate cause of mortality, followed by death due to injuries from translocation and/or capture myopathy, accidents, emaciation, poaching, and Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection. Overall, annual survival of elk across Ontario ranged from 0.45 (0.37–0.53) to 0.81 (0.66–0.90), with rates being lowest in the years immediately following release and highest in the final years of the study; this pattern was due to high initial mortality from translocation injuries and/or capture myopathy and possibly lack of familiarity with novel habitat. Model‐averaged hazards further support this finding, as the most important factor influencing elk survival was the length of holding period, with elk released after limited holding being less likely to survive than those held for longer periods. Our results suggest that mortalities caused by capture myopathy and transportation‐related injuries are important sources of risk for translocated elk. The method of introduction to the novel landscape and behavior in the first year should be accommodated via soft‐release and appropriate release areas.

Risks in Vegetables Production from the Perspective of Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Kombolcha Woreda, Oromia Region, Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, vegetable crops are produced in different agro-ecological zones through commercial as well as smallholder farmers both as a source of income and food. However, due to perishable nature and biological nature of production process, vegetables productions are risky investment activities. In this context, risk perceptions play a key role in the production and investment behaviour of farmers in vegetable production decisions. However, in Kombolcha Woreda, only limited attention has been paid to understand the producers’ risk perceptions in vegetable production. Therefore, in this study, analysis of the major sources of risks in vegetable production, on the basis of farmers’ perceptions, was conducted. For the study, a two-stage sampling technique was used to select 130 sample households from six sample kebeles. Primary data collected through structured questionnaire and secondary data sources were used. A Likert scale, based on farmers’ perception, was used to rank the various sources of vegetable production risks. The mean scores results, derived based on Likert scales, indicated that production and market risks were perceived to be the most important risk sources. Hence, price support mechanisms and inputs subsidy, education and training on formal risk management mechanisms (production contract, marketing contract, etc.); drought tolerant, and pest/disease resistant vegetable varieties and cultural and biological methods, and chemicals should be used to control such risks.

Convergence of Genes and Cellular Pathways Dysregulated in Autism Spectrum Disorders

Rare copy-number variation (CNV) is an important source of risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). We analyzed 2,446 ASD-affected families and confirmed an excess of genic deletions and duplications in affected versus control groups (1.41-fold, p = 1.0 × 10−5) and an increase in affected subjects carrying exonic pathogenic CNVs overlapping known loci associated with dominant or X-linked ASD and intellectual disability (odds ratio = 12.62, p = 2.7 × 10−15, ∼3% of ASD subjects). Pathogenic CNVs, often showing variable expressivity, included rare de novo and inherited events at 36 loci, implicating ASD-associated genes (CHD2, HDAC4, and GDI1) previously linked to other neurodevelopmental disorders, as well as other genes such as SETD5, MIR137, and HDAC9. Consistent with hypothesized gender-specific modulators, females with ASD were more likely to have highly penetrant CNVs (p = 0.017) and were also overrepresented among subjects with fragile X syndrome protein targets (p = 0.02). Genes affected by de novo CNVs and/or loss-of-function single-nucleotide variants converged on networks related to neuronal signaling and development, synapse function, and chromatin regulation.