Implications Of Future Climate Change Research Articles

Development and Validation of the Climate Change-Related Reproductive Concerns Scale (CCRCS)

IntroductionAs global concerns about climate change intensify, emerging research reveals a link between climate change anxiety and individuals' decisions regarding parenthood. More people are choosing not to have children due to worries about their carbon footprint or the future implications of climate change on their offspring. This trend emphasizes the critical necessity for a nuanced comprehension of how environmental concerns intertwine with reproductive intentions. To address this imperative, our study develops the Climate Change-Related Reproductive Concerns Scale (CCRCS) and evaluates its psychometric properties. MethodsCCRCS was developed and validated in a sample of 206 Italian adults aged 19 to 51. Ten items were created to evaluate climate change-related reproductive attitudes: 5 anti-reproductive items and 5 pro-reproductive, with their responses reversed for consistency in interpretation. ResultsExploratory factor analysis revealed a single-factor structure, explaining 63.82% of the variance, with the scale demonstrating good internal consistency (α = 0.85). The factor structure was replicated, and the scale's validity was examined through correlations with measures of eco-paralysis and climate change anxiety, with significant correlations supporting construct validity. Furthermore, the relationship between climate change-related reproductive concerns and adaptation responses was explored, assessing the impact of framing on CCRCS scores. Conclusionthe CCRCS provides a reliable and valid measure of these concerns, highlighting the psychological impact of climate change anxiety on reproductive decision-making and emphasizing the need for nuanced understanding in this area.

Analysis of spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation carbon use efficiency in watershed ecosystem and construction of ecological network: a case study of the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT Watershed ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, and the feedback effects of carbon cycling will have significant implications for future climate change. Therefore, this study utilizes MODIS data to estimate the vegetation carbon use efficiency (CUE) of the Yangtze River Basin (hereafter referred to as the YRB) aiming to explore its spatiotemporal patterns. Additionally, partial correlation analysis is employed to investigate the driving forces of climate and ecosystem types on vegetation CUE. Furthermore, an ecological network is constructed to examine the impact of CUE changes on the stability of the ecosystems.The results indicate that the CUE values in the vegetation ecosystems of the YRB exceed the threshold of 0.5, a constant CUE value commonly used in numerous ecological models. However, even within the same geographical region, different ecosystem types exhibit distinct CUE values, underscoring the complexity of the ecological landscape.Over the past 15 years, there has been an observable declining trend in CUE for the vegetation ecosystems within the YRB. Moreover, future projections suggest a continued decrease in CUE at the pixel scale, with land use changes possibly serving as a primary contributing factor. Interestingly, within the same ecosystem, higher temperatures and reduced precipitation appear to enhance CUE, implying that under adverse environmental conditions, plants may enhance their efficiency in converting atmospheric carbon into terrestrial biomass.Ultimately, an ecological network is established to investigate the influence of CUE changes on the stability of the ecosystems. Notably, alterations in CUE within the upstream ecological source areas of the Yangtze River exhibit a particularly pronounced impact on the overall ecosystem stability.These research findings hold paramount significance, deepening our understanding of carbon cycling variations in the YRB, while also providing valuable insights for safeguarding the ecological environment and formulating strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change.

A novel objective for improving the sustainability of water supply system regarding hydrological response.

In general, the sustainability of the water supply system is indicative of an adaptive operational approach, wherein the decision-maker adjusts the system's performance based on the availability of water resources in a given time frame. In light of this, a novel framework is proposed in this study to evaluate sustainability, including three key indicators: resilience, reliability, and vulnerability. To address stressors that may lead to system failure, a multisectoral water allocation optimization is undertaken. In order to account for the future implications of climate change on the hydrological cycle, a simulation step, is incorporated, utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) under various emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), prior to integrating the streamflow data into our proposed optimal framework. To calibrate and validate historical data (2014-2019) and simulate future streamflow patterns (2025-2085), the Sistan Basin, located in an arid region of Iran, is analyzed as a case study. In light of the anticipated adverse impacts on the water supply system, certain adaptation measures, such as demand shrinkage scenarios, are considered to further appraise the proposed framework. Based on the final output, it is evident that the agricultural and industrial sectors, being the primary water consumers, are more susceptible to negative impacts resulting from the reduction in system sustainability. This susceptibility is primarily attributed to their highest vulnerability and comparatively lower reliability.

A multicentennial mode of North Atlantic climate variability throughout the Last Glacial Maximum

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multicentennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Exploiting LGM simulations with a comprehensive coupled climate model along with high-resolution proxy records, we introduce an oscillatory mode of multicentennial variability, which is associated with moderate variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and depends on the large-scale salinity distribution. This self-sustained mode is amplified by sea-ice feedbacks and induces maximum surface temperature variability in the subpolar North Atlantic region. Characterized by a distinct climatic imprint and different dynamics, the multicentennial oscillation has to be distinguished from Dansgaard-Oeschger variability and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. The potential of multicentennial modes of variability to emerge or disappear in response to changing climate forcing may have implications for future climate change.

Minimal shift of eastern wild turkey nesting phenology associated with projected climate change

Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over eight years to investigate potential climatic drivers of variation in nest initiation dates. We investigated climactic relationships with two datasets, one inclusive of successful and unsuccessful nests (full dataset) and another of just successful nests (successfully hatched dataset), to determine whether successfully hatched nests responded differently to weather changes than all nests did. In the full dataset, each 10 cm increase in January precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.46–0.66 days earlier, and each 10 cm increase in precipitation during the 30 days preceding nesting was associated with nesting occurring 0.17–0.21 days later. In the successfully hatched dataset, a 10 cm increase in March precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.67–0.74 days earlier, and an increase of one unit of variation in February maximum temperature was associated with nesting occurring 0.02 days later. We combined the results of these modeled relationships with multiple climate scenarios to understand potential implications of future climate change on wild turkey nesting phenology; results indicated that mean nest initiation date is projected to change by <0.1 day by 2040–2060. Wild turkey nesting phenology did not track changes in spring green-up timing, which could result in phenological mismatch between the timing of nesting and the availability of resources critical for successful reproduction.

Food resources and competition rather than eco-geographic rules explain trait variations in two contrasting rat species: Implications for future climate change

Understanding how morphological traits are influenced by temperature, resource availability and competition is critical for predicting future ecosystem resilience to climate change. Here we tested the effects of biotic and abiotic factors, on the morphology of two contrasting Muridae species (Chinese white-bellied rats Niviventer confucianus [n = 565; 57.1 g] and Edwards's long-tailed giant rats Leopoldamys edwardsi [n = 45; 459.5 g]) in relation to Bergmann’s, Allen’s, Hesse’s and Geist’s eco-geographical rules along a 2900-m elevational gradient. Specifically, we tested the “body size threshold” theory, which posits that animals heavier than 0.16 kg are more likely to follow Bergmann’s rule. We measured body length and mass, appendage lengths and heart mass for 610 adult specimens from 115 localities, and used principal components analysis to quantify food resource availability. Linear mixed models were employed to test these eco-geographical rules, along with the effects of associated biotic and abiotic factors. We found that for N. confucianus (< 0.16 kg), colder temperatures were associated with smaller body-size, contrary to Bergmann’s rule, and with greater interspecific competition and food abundance (supporting Geist’s rule). There was no support for Allen's rule, except for a contrary effect on snout length among females; however, greater intraspecific competition and lesser food abundance were associated with shorter snout length, supporting Geist’s rule. Heart size increased with colder temperatures, but only among females, partly supporting Hesse’s rule, and decreased with greater intraspecific competition for both sexes. L. edwardsi (> 0.16 kg) did not conform with any eco-geographic rules, and so we found no support for the “body size threshold” theory. Our study proposes that food resource abundance and inter- and intraspecific competition mediated variations in morphological traits in these rodent species to a greater extent than any reduction in temperature alone, giving little support for ecogeographical rule effects. We interpret that where food supply can meet energetic demands, even under colder conditions, then any selective pressure for thermal/energy efficiency through larger body size and shorter appendages will be alleviated. Considering the full range of inter-related factors that are affected by temperature, rather than just the bio-physics of heat loss, is important to better predict future climate change responses.

Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Implications of future climate change on crop and irrigation water requirements in a semi-arid river basin using CMIP6 GCMs

Ice sheet and terrestrial input impacts on the 100-kyr ocean carbon cycle during the Middle Miocene

The Middle Miocene (~16–11.6 Ma) had atmospheric CO2 levels comparable to the present day, and thus the mechanisms controlling the interactions of the climate system and the carbon cycle during the Middle Miocene may have significant implications for future climate change. In this study, we examined the phase relationship between benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C records, within the 100-kyr band, during the Late Quaternary and the Middle Miocene. Our results suggest that benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C were highly coherent and in-phase within the 100-kyr band during the Middle Miocene, in contrast to the anti-phased relationship during the Late Quaternary. However, the causes of this contrast remain elusive. We used a biogeochemical box model to explore the mechanisms of the in-phase relationship in the 100-kyr band during the Middle Miocene. The model results show that the in-phase relationship can be attributed to two mechanisms: (1) a shelf-basin carbonate shift regulated by sea-level fluctuations which originated from the growth and decay of the Antarctic ice sheet, within the 100-kyr band; and (2) changes in terrestrial carbon inputs and the biological pump driven by the discharge of riverine nutrients, which was regulated by precipitation variability in low latitudes, within the eccentricity-modulated precessional band. Thus, we propose that both high- and low-latitude processes played critical roles in the Middle Miocene carbon cycle, within the 100-kyr band. We further show that chemical weathering played a potential role in regulating the atmospheric pCO2 on the orbital time scale during the Middle Miocene.

Impacts Analysis of Alien Macroinvertebrate Species in the Hydrographic System of a Subalpine Lake on the Italian–Swiss Border

The potential invasiveness of alien macroinvertebrate species in the Italian/Swiss hydrographic system of Lake Maggiore (NW Italy) was assessed through the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit, a risk assessment tool developed for quantifying the impacts of alien species on the commercial, environmental, and species traits sectors. Data were collected using the databases provided by two regional environmental agencies in northern Italy (Lombardy and Piedmont regions) and by the governmental monitoring program of Switzerland, which were integrated with a systematic literature search on Google scholar and ISI Web of Science. In the assessment area, 16 macroinvertebrate invasive alien species were reported: nine mollusks, four decapods, and three amphipods. The species assessment indicated seven species with a high level of invasiveness: Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus (formerly, Orconectes limosus) and Pacifastacus leniusculus, Dreissena polymorpha, Corbicula fluminea, Sinanodonta woodiana, and Pseudosuccinea columella. The results allow invasive species managers to understand which species to focus their monitoring on in the near future in order to track IAS movements and limit their spread within the hydrographic system and to provide the identification and refinement of concerted bilateral strategies aimed at limiting the impacts of these species. They also account for the implications of future climate change on the invasion potential of each species.

The implications of future climate change on the blue water footprint of hydropower in the contiguous US * *This manuscript has been co-authored by an employee of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT Battelle, LLC, under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy. The publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains

As the largest renewable energy source, hydropower is essential to the sustainability of the global energy market. However, a considerable amount of water can be lost in the form of evaporation from the associated multipurpose reservoirs, and hence enlarge the blue water footprint (BWF) of hydropower in a warming climate. To facilitate the sustainable management of both water and energy resources under the impact of climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS), the BWF values of 143 major multipurpose reservoirs were evaluated during the historical period (1985–2014) and two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099). The historical reservoir evaporation loss was calculated using the Landsat-based reservoir surface area and a new evaporation rate algorithm that considers the heat storage effect. Future projections of runoff availability, hydropower generation, and reservoir evaporation were estimated based on the downscaled climate model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. It was found that the BWF for the CONUS is highly spatially heterogeneous, with an average value of 26.2 m3 MWh−1 in the historical period. In the future, the BWF values are projected to increase under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This is especially noticeable under RCP 8.5, which has an average BWF value of 30.2 m3 MWh−1 for 2070–2099 (increasing by 15.3% from 26.2 m3 MWh−1). The uncertainty ranges increase even more, from 3.4 m3 MWh−1 during 2020–2049 to 5.7 m3 MWh−1 during 2070–2099. These findings can benefit water and energy resources management in identifying suitable environmental, economic, operational, and investment strategies for multipurpose reservoirs in a changing environment.

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Rainfall and Temperature Predictions: Implications for Rice Production in the Lower River Region of The Gambia

Climate change impacts have been the major subject of discussion for scientists from different fields of study, including the agriculture sector. This study investigates the effects and implications of future climate change on rice production in the Lower River Region of The Gambia. The study seeks the following specific objectives: i) Analyse temperature and rainfall trends over Lower River Region; ii) Determine the relationship between temperature, rainfalls and rice production in the study area; and iii) Simulate temperature, rainfalls and rice production as well as the existing relationship among those parameters in the future using seasonality. The trend was examined after an exploratory data analysis, a unit root test and a correlation analysis. The study revealed an increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) and a variation in minimum temperature (Tmin) where the increase is not constant over 1981-2015. Also, the harvested area, production and rainfall increased while yield decreased. The data was extrapolated to 2035 using a VARMA statistical forecast method. Ordinary Least Squares and robust linear regression models were applied to find out the future implications (2035 and subsequent near years) of the climate parameters on rice production using 1981 to 2015-year series. The model shows that by 2035, yields will negatively be affected by the increase in Tmax and positively by the very little variation in Tmin. But the risk is that the ratio is not balanced, the damages of Tmax will be greater than the good productions of Tmin. The Tmin will also decrease as a general trend occasioning severe conditions for rice production in the region. This reveals the effects of climate change on rice production even though the relationship between climatic and rice variables remains low, because of the numerous parameters in rice production. This calls for an urgent need to improve rice varieties that will thrive well in the anticipated new climatic conditions (high yielding, heat tolerant, saline tolerant and early maturing) and promotion of good cultural practices that save water to cope with future climate.This study suggests that more studies should include other parameters of rice production for improved predictions.

Adhering to the “Flashing Yellow Light”

During the late 1970s and early 1980s, despite growing political, scientific, and popular concern about the prospect of melting glaciers, sea-level rise, and more generally, climate-induced societal instability, American high-level science advisers and administrators, scientific committees, national and international scientific organizations, and officials within the Carter administration engineered a politics of restrained management of climate risk. Adopting a strategy of restraint appeared optimal not because of a pervasive disinterest in or ignorance of the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. Rather, this administrative decision was rooted in widespread skepticism of the public’s ability to regulate their panic given popular dissemination of alarming scenarios of the future. Their concerns were not epistemic; they were sociopolitical. Broad-based appeals to moderation directly informed both scientists and the administration’s eventual decision in 1980 to minimize executive involvement. Despite some environmentalists’ and scientists’ calls for a more proactive position aligned with their ethical perspectives about the future implications of climate change, these linguistic cues of moderation became powerful heuristics that helped shape and anchor assessments of climate risk, calibrate scientists’ advice to policy makers, and regulate public apprehension about climate risk. Ultimately, officials within and outside the science community concluded that the likely short-term costs incurred from immediate action to curb fossil fuel emissions were greater than the social and political costs incurred from maintaining what was considered to be a tempered approach to climate governance in the near-term.

Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions.

The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria transmission in India. A Fuzzy-based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) model under the GIS environment was generated using Temperature and Relative Humidity data, extracted from CORDEX South Asia for Baseline (1976–2005) and RCP 4.5 scenario for future projection by the 2030s (2021–2040). National malaria data were used at the model analysis stage. Model outcomes suggest that climate change may significantly increase the spatial spread of Pv and Pf malaria with a numerical increase in the transmission window’s (TW) months, and a shift in the months of transmission. Some areas of the western Himalayan states are likely to have new foci of Pv malaria transmission. Interior parts of some southern and eastern states are likely to become more suitable for Pf malaria transmission. Study has also identified the regions with a reduction in transmission months by the 2030s, leading to unstable malaria, and having the potential for malaria outbreaks.

High‐resolution regional climate model projections of future tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the most exposed countries in the world to tropical cyclones. In order to provide information to help the country build resilience and plan for a future under a warmer climate, we build on previous research to investigate implications of future climate change on tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Experiments were conducted using three regional climate models with horizontal resolutions of approximately 12 km (HadGEM3‐RA) and 25 km (HadRM3P and RegCM4). The simulations are driven by boundary data from a subset of global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble. Here we present the experimental design, the methodology for selecting CMIP5 models, the results of the model validation, and future projections of changes to tropical cyclone frequency and intensity by the mid‐21st century. The models used are shown to represent the key climatological features of tropical cyclones across the domain, including the seasonality and general distribution of intensities, but issues remain in resolving very intense tropical cyclones and simulating realistic trajectories across their life‐cycles. Acknowledging model inadequacies and uncertainties associated with future climate model projections, the results show a range of plausible changes with a tendency for fewer but slightly more intense tropical cyclones. These results are consistent with the basin‐wide results reported in the IPCC AR5 and provide clear evidence that the findings from these previous studies are applicable in the Philippines region.

Implications of future climate change for event-based hydrologic models

Abstract Event-based hydrologic models are frequently used for flood design and assessment. These models generally require the specification of loss values that should relate to antecedent conditions in the catchment. The loss values are key calibration parameters, usually defined by matching model output with recorded or derived streamflow information. It is now widely recognized that climate change will impact the hydrologic cycle and affect catchment conditions. Therefore, loss values calibrated using historical observations may not be appropriate for simulating future flooding. We use the method of bottom-up climate change assessment to understand the potential for future performance changes in a calibrated event-based model due to changing antecedent conditions. This is achieved by comparing the results against those of a continuous hydrologic model that accounts for differences in antecedent catchment storages. We find that event-based model performance diverges substantially from the continuous model results under the climate change scenarios, which account for increased dryness and greater extreme rainfall intensities. The results indicate that there is greater uncertainty in event-based model results when simulating drier climatic states, attributed to greater variability in antecedent conditions. However, when simulating increased extreme rainfall intensity (giving rise to larger rainfall events and generally wetter antecedent conditions), the impact of changing antecedent conditions was less important than the models’ representations of catchment nonlinearity. This suggests that changing antecedent conditions are not always the key source of potential model performance degradation. Therefore, applying continuous simulation will not necessarily offer an advantage in characterizing future floods. This study highlights the uncertainty facing practicing engineers and hydrologists wanting to account for climate change in flood modelling and design. Large scale changes in engineering practice may be required to ensure that the robustness of flood modelling is maintained in a changing climate.

In situ behavioral plasticity as compensation for weather variability: implications for future climate change

While climatic effects on species biogeographic distributions are well documented, less mobile species must compensate for climate change in situ via behavioral plasticity. Despite this being a critical mechanism, behavioral plasticity is rarely modeled explicitly. Here, we use novel accelerometer and active-RFID transponder technology to quantify weather-driven modification of activity, mechanical energy expenditure, and ranging behavior, using the European badger as a model species. We then examine how these behaviors could respond to future climate change. From multi-model inference, activity was promoted significantly by a quadratic relationship with temperature, but inhibited by a quadratic relationship with humidity, and the amount of solar radiation. Drier conditions also encouraged more movement. Modeled against IPCC SRES low and high emissions climate change scenarios, milder and drier conditions projected for the next century would likely produce a change to badgers’ current phenology, with elevated levels of activity being maintained into the winter. This increased activity could necessitate up to a 15% increase in energy expenditure. Furthermore, conditions projected under the high emissions scenario may also lead to substantially increased movement, with implications for road traffic mortality rates. We contend that behavioral adaptation must be better incorporated into conservation strategies, versus the assumption of non-adaptive failure.

Upland grasslands in Northern England were atmospheric carbon sinks regardless of management regimes

Continuous exchange of carbon (C) in the forms of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) occurs between the atmosphere and the terrestrial ecosystem. These greenhouse gases (GHGs) contribute significantly to global warming when present in the atmosphere. Thus, there is growing interest in understanding better ways of managing terrestrial ecosystems so as to increase or fully utilize their capacity to sequester GHGs, or reduce emissions, and mitigate climate change. In this study, we examined the fluxes of CO2 and CH4 in two upland grassland locations (Nidderdale and Ribblesdale) in northern England with contrasting lithologies and under: 1) traditional hay meadow and 2) conventional pasture management. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration (ER) were measured for 12 months from June 2016 to May 2017, alongside other environmental variables such as soil temperature and moisture, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Results showed that the grasslands were a net atmospheric C sink, with an uptake of 1822–2758 g CO2-eq m−2 year−1. This C uptake is greater than those reported in other European grasslands due to low ER. The Ribblesdale hay meadow had the lowest C uptake (1822 g CO2-eq m−2 year−1) likely due to low available soil nitrogen (N) resulting from the absence of N fertilization. This has implication for agri-environment schemes that discourage the use of inorganic N fertilizers. Warmer condition in Ribblesdale was implicated as the cause of higher C efflux relative to Nidderdale, which has implications for future climate change. The CH4 fluxes were very low (−0.36 to −0.44 g CH4 m−2 year−1) and did not differ significantly between management regimes. It is recommended that future research should prioritise the overall GHG balance of upland grasslands and their inter-annual and decadal variability.

Impact of seasonal changes in zooplankton biodiversity in Ukkadam Lake, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India, and potential future implications of climate change

BackgroundZooplankton biodiversity serves as an ecological indicator of aquatic environment due to their rapid response according to environmental changes. At the present study, impact of seasonal changes on zooplankton biodiversity was conducted in the Ukkadam Lake (Lat 10° 59′ N and Long 76° 57′ E), at Coimbatore city, Tamil Nadu, India.ResultsThe biodiversity of zooplankton taxa were studied for a period from December 2011 to November 2012 on seasonal basis. During this time period, in total, 28 species of zooplankton were noticed, which includes 9 species of each Rotifera and Cladocera and 5 species of Copepoda and Ostracoda. In this present observation, total abundance of Rotifera was found to be predominant with 35%, followed by Cladocera 29%, Copepoda 29% and Ostracoda 7%. The population density of various group of zooplankton was observed, and it was found to be following order Rotifera > Copepoda > Cladocera > Ostracoda. The high and low population densities were recorded in summer and early monsoon season respectively. This higher zooplankton population density in summer might be due to the temperature acceleration in the Ukkadam Lake.ConclusionsThe present study revealed that zooplankton productivity was found to be higher in the Ukkadam Lake when the temperature was increased in summer season. It indicates that the temperature has influence on the zooplankton diversity. Therefore, increased temperature due to global climate change might have influence on the zooplankton production. Assessment of zooplankton biodiversity will be useful to monitor the health (water quality) and wealth (fishery productivity) of this lake system in the near future.

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

This paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. The analysis is conducted using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.