Implications For Biodiversity Research Articles

The inequalities of the extinction of experience: The role of personal characteristics and species traits in the distribution of people–plant interactions in Japan

AbstractThere is concern about the increasing loss of people's direct interactions with fauna and flora. This extinction of experience has many potential far‐reaching implications for both biodiversity and humans, including the decrease of public support for conservation issues and a reduction in the health benefits that humans experience when interacting with nature. However, knowledge of how experiences with biodiversity are distributed among different sectors of society and the key drivers of this distribution remains poor. Here, we report on the results of a nation‐wide online survey in Japan in which we explored the extent, distribution, and drivers of participant's direct experiences with wild flowering plants. Participants were asked to provide information on their sociodemographics, orientation toward nature, childhood residential environment, and whether they had experienced each of 21 wild flowering plant species. The reported number of wild flowering plant species that participants had experienced varied greatly. Older and female participants and those with childhoods in rural areas and with a greater orientation toward nature experienced a significantly higher number of interactions with flowering plant species. Plant species that prefer roadside environments (compared to grassland/farmland and forest‐dependent species) and are not on the Red List were likely to be experienced by participants. This novel study provides unique information about the interactions of people and the wildlife around them. Such information is crucial for the development of policies and strategies targeted to reduce the ongoing extinction of experience and its negative consequences.

Using soundscapes to assess biodiversity in Neotropical oil palm landscapes

Expanding oil palm plantations have caused widespread deforestation and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia, stigmatizing the industry around the world regardless of regional context. In Latin America, oil palm plantations are primarily replacing other agroindustrial land uses with uncertain implications for local biodiversity. Our aim was to create empirical baseline data to help guide development of future plantations into areas where biodiversity impacts are minimized. We used soundscapes to assess fauna in oil palm landscapes of Colombia, the world’s 4th largest palm oil producer. Soundscapes capture daily patterns of acoustic activity that can be used to measure differences between biotic communities between habitats. Using remnant forest fragments as reference sites, we sampled land use classes that are commonly replaced by commercial oil palm including cattle pastures, rice fields, and banana plantations. Soundscape analysis showed that even highly degraded forests have a unique soundscape compared to production systems. Similarities were found among closed canopy production sites (oil palm, banana) and open production habitat (pastures, rice), suggesting the importance of habitat structure for acoustic communities. Oil palm also showed notable overlap with pastures, but had soundscapes that were more similar to forest than the other production types. Future oil palm development in Latin America can replace cattle pastures and other commodity plantation agriculture with minimal impacts on acoustic communities. New supply chain governance approaches such as the zero-deforestation agreements being implemented in the Colombian oil palm and cattle sectors may help guide the industry toward more sustainable development by continuing to target previously cleared lands.

Wild bee diversity increases with local fire severity in a fire‐prone landscape

AbstractAs wildfire activity increases in many regions of the world, it is imperative that we understand how key components of fire‐prone ecosystems respond to spatial variation in fire characteristics. Pollinators provide a foundation for ecological communities by assisting in the reproduction of native plants, yet our understanding of how pollinators such as wild bees respond to variation in fire severity is limited, particularly for forest ecosystems. Here, we took advantage of a natural experiment created by a large‐scale, mixed‐severity wildfire to provide the first assessment of how wild bee communities are shaped by fire severity in mixed‐conifer forest. We sampled bees in the Douglas Fire Complex, a 19,000‐ha fire in southern Oregon,USA, to evaluate how bee communities responded to local‐scale fire severity. We found that fire severity served a strong driver of bee diversity: 20 times more individuals and 11 times more species were captured in areas that experienced high fire severity relative to areas with the lowest fire severity. In addition, we found pronounced seasonality in the local bee community, with more individuals and more species captured during late summer, especially in severely burned regions of the landscape. Two critical habitat components for maintaining bee populations—flowering plants and boring insect exit holes used by cavity‐nesting bees—also increased with fire severity. Although we detected shifts in the relative abundance of several bee and plant genera along the fire severity gradient, the two most abundant bee genera (BombusandHalictus) responded positively to high fire severity despite differences in their typical foraging ranges. Our study demonstrates that within a large wildfire mosaic, severely burned forest contained the most diverse wild bee communities. This finding has particularly important implications for biodiversity in fire‐prone areas given the expected expansion of wildfires in the coming decades.

Civil society challenges the global food system: the International Monsanto Tribunal

ABSTRACTThe global food system has severe implications for human health, soil quality, biodiversity, and quality of life. This paper provides an analysis on how transnational alliances challenge the global food system. We illustrate this by focusing on the activities and hearings of the International Monsanto Tribunal (IMT), held in the Hague in 2016. The IMT provided a platform for civil society and enabled transnational alliances to demand attention for local struggles and legal disputes in relation to Monsanto’s products. With the involvement of independent and renowned experts, the knowledge exchange between local victims and civil society was enhanced, and the IMT reinforced social movement’s goals towards demanding justice for the negative effects associated with the global food system. The advisory opinion determined that Monsanto’s practices are in violation with human rights standards. The IMT exemplified that there is an immediate need for structural change in the current global food system.

2017 Student Debates: The Anthropocene: Implications for Arthropods and Biodiversity

2017 Student Debates: The Anthropocene: Implications for Arthropods and Biodiversity

Mapping land cover change in northern Brazil with limited training data

Deforestation in the Amazon has important implications for biodiversity and climate change. However, land cover monitoring in this tropical forest is a challenge because it covers such a large area and the land cover change often occurs quickly, and sometimes cyclically. Here we adapt a method which eliminates the need to collect new training data samples for each update of an existing land cover map. We use the state-of-the-art probabilistic classifier Import Vector Machines and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) scenes of the area surrounding Novo Progresso, northern Brazil, to create an initial land cover map for 2013 with associated classification probabilities. We then conduct spectral change detection between 2013 and 2015 using a pair of Landsat images in order to identify the areas where land cover has changed between the two dates, and then reclassify these areas using a supervised classification algorithm, using pixels from the unchanged areas of the map as training data. In this study, we use the pixels with the highest classification probabilities to train the classifier for 2015 and compare the results to those obtained when pixels are chosen randomly. The use of probabilities in the selection of training samples improves the results compared to a random selection, with the highest overall accuracy achieved when 250 training samples with high probabilities are used. For training sample sizes greater than 1000, the differences in overall accuracy between the two approaches to training sample selection are reduced. The final updated 2015 map has an overall accuracy of 80.1%, compared to an overall accuracy of 82.5% for the 2013 map. The results show that this probabilistic method has potential to efficiently map the dynamic land cover change in the Amazon with limited training data, although some challenges remain.

Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs.

The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate‐induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate‐driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape‐scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate–woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate‐induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad‐scale climate–woodpecker models results in model–data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate–woodpecker–forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate‐driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.

Quantifying structural diversity to better estimate change at mountain forest margins

Global environmental changes are driving shifts in forest distribution across the globe with significant implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function. At the upper elevational limit of forest distribution, patterns of forest advance and stasis can be highly spatially variable. Reliable estimations of forest distribution shifts require assessments of forest change to account for variation in treeline advance across entire mountain ranges. Multispectral satellite remote sensing is well suited to this purpose and is particularly valuable in regions where the scope of field campaigns is restricted. However, there is little understanding of how much information about forest structure at the mountain treeline can be derived from multispectral remote sensing data. Here we combine field data from a structurally diverse treeline ecotone in the Central Mountain Range, Taiwan, with data from four multispectral satellite sensors (GeoEye, SPOT-7, Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8) to identify spectral features that best explain variation in vegetation structure at the mountain treeline and the effect of sensor spatial resolution on the characterisation of structural variation. The green, red and short-wave infrared spectral bands and vegetation indices based on green and short-wave infrared bands offer the best characterisation of forest structure with R2 values reported up to 0.723. There is very little quantitative difference in the ability of the sensors tested here to discriminate between discrete descriptors of vegetation structure (difference of R2MF within 0.09). While Landsat-8 is less well suited to defining above-ground woody biomass (R2 0.12–0.29 lower than the alternative sensors), there is little difference between the relationships defined for GeoEye, SPOT-7 and Sentinel-2 data (difference in R2 < 0.03). Discrete classifications are best suited to the identification of forest structures indicative of treeline advance or stasis, using a simplified class designation to separate areas of old growth forest, forest advance and grassland habitats. Consequently, our results present a major opportunity to improve quantification of forest range shifts across mountain systems and to estimate the impacts of forest advance on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Increasing temperature seasonality may overwhelm shifts in soil moisture to favor shrub over grass dominance in Colorado Plateau drylands.

Ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. are predicted to experience continued warming and drying trends of the early twenty-first century. Climate change can shift the balance between grass and woody plant abundance in these water-limited systems, which has large implications for biodiversity and ecosystem processes. However, variability in topo-edaphic conditions, notably soil texture and depth, confound efforts to quantify specific climatic controls over grass vs. shrub dominance. Here, we utilized weather records and a mechanistic soil water model to identify the timing and depth at which soil moisture related most strongly to the balance between grass and shrub dominance in the southern Colorado Plateau. Shrubs dominate where there is high soil moisture availability during winter, and where temperature is more seasonally variable, while grasses are favored where moisture is available during summer. Climate change projections indicate consistent increases in mean temperature and seasonal temperature variability for all sites, but predictions for summer and winter soil moisture vary across sites. Together, these changes in temperature and soil moisture are expected to shift the balance towards increasing shrub dominance across the region. These patterns are strongly driven by changes in temperature, which either enhance or overwhelm effects of changes in soil moisture across sites. This approach, which incorporates local, edaphic factors at sites protected from disturbance, improves understanding of climate change impacts on grass vs. shrub abundance and may be useful in other dryland regions with high edaphic and climatic heterogeneity.

African fire histories and fire ecologies

Patterns of fire are changing across African savannahs, rainforests, fynbos, woodlands, and Afroalpine and montane forests, with direct environmental and socio-ecological consequences. Fire variability has implications for biodiversity (Beale et al. 2018), vegetation patterns, grazing quality, carbon emissions, protected area management, and landscape heterogeneity. Fire is a crucial component of savannah functioning and structure and is essential for maintaining its biodiversity. Long-term records are key to understanding drivers of fire variability and contextualize recent and ongoing land-use changes that altered fire responses to climate and vegetation changes (e.g. Ekblom and Gillson 2010, Colombaroli et al. 2014). As indigenous forest loss continues and modification through selective harvesting and land-use encroachment accelerate forest changes, the importance of historical disturbance regimes is increasingly relevant for assessing past ranges of variability and to define management targets that support more resilient socioecological systems (Whitlock et al. 2018). But how can the research community engage and integrate with land-management practitioners and policy developers? And how can we promote knowledge transfer and collaborative capacity between the international community and the next generation of African scientists?

Effects of Bark Beetle Disturbance on Soil Nutrient Retention and Lake Chemistry in Glacial Catchment

Forest ecosystems worldwide are subjected to human-induced stressors, including eutrophication and acidification, and to natural disturbances (for example, insect infestation, windstorms, fires). The occurrence of the later is expected to increase due to the ongoing climate change. These multi-stressor forcings modify ecosystem biogeochemistry, including the retention of limiting nutrients, with implications for terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Here we present whole ecosystem nutrient (N, Ca, Mg, K) mass balances in the forested catchment of Plesne Lake, CZ, which has undergone transient changes linked to the recovery from anthropogenic acidification and to the forest disturbances caused by severe infestations by the bark beetle (Ips typographus). Measured fluxes and storage of nutrients in the lake-catchment ecosystem were used to constrain the process-oriented biogeochemical model MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments). Simulated lake water chemistry and changes in soil nutrient pools fitted observed data and revealed that (1) the ecosystem N retention declined, thus nitrate leaching increased for 10 years following the bark beetle disturbance, with transient adverse effects on the acid–base status of lake water, (2) the kinetics of nutrient mineralisation from decaying biomass coupled with nutrient immobilisation in regrowing vegetation constrained the magnitude and duration of ecosystem losses of N, Ca and Mg, (3) the excess of mineralised base cations from decomposing biomass replenished the soil cation exchange matrix, which led to increased soil base saturation, and (4) the improvement of the catchment soil acid–base status led to an increase of lake water pH and acid neutralising capacity. Forested ecosystems underlain by nutrient-poor soils and bedrock are prone to human-induced damages caused by acidification and eutrophication, and any natural disturbance may further lead to nutrient imbalances. We demonstrated that in this natural forest ecosystem protected from human intervention, disturbances together with natural post-disturbance vegetation recovery have temporally positive effects on the nutrient stores in the soil.

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming.

Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950-2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species' effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.

Carbon-focused conservation may fail to protect the most biodiverse tropical forests

As one of Earth’s most carbon-dense regions, tropical forests are central to climate change mitigation efforts. Their unparalleled species richness also makes them vital for safeguarding biodiversity. However, because research has not been conducted at management-relevant scales and has often not accounted for forest disturbance, the biodiversity implications of carbon conservation strategies remain poorly understood. We investigated tropical carbon–biodiversity relationships and trade-offs along a forest-disturbance gradient, using detailed and extensive carbon and biodiversity datasets. Biodiversity was positively associated with carbon in secondary and highly disturbed primary forests. Positive carbon–biodiversity relationships dissipated at around 100 MgC ha–1, meaning that in less disturbed forests more carbon did not equal more biodiversity. Simulated carbon conservation schemes therefore failed to protect many species in the most species-rich forests. These biodiversity shortfalls were sensitive to opportunity costs and could be decreased for small carbon penalties. To ensure that the most ecologically valuable forests are protected, biodiversity needs to be incorporated into carbon conservation planning. Biodiversity is positively associated with carbon density in highly disturbed tropical forests, but this relationship breaks down in relatively undisturbed areas. Consequently, carbon conservation schemes can fail to protect the most ecologically valuable forests.

Effects of Grazing Abandoned Grassland on Herbage Production and Utilization, and Sheep Preference and Performance

Large areas of farmland are abandoned in Norway, which for various reasons are regarded as undesirable. Loss of farmland may have negative implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function and food production potential. The objectives of this study were to assess forage mass production and utilization, botanical composition, lamb performance, and grazing distribution pattern when reintroducing livestock grazing to an abandoned grassland. The study area was located in Central Norway, unmanaged for 12 years. Sheep grazed the area for 10 weeks in 2013 and four weeks in spring and autumn, respectively, in 2014 and 2015. During the summer of 2014 and 2015, the area was subjected to the following three replicated treatments: 1) No grazing, 2) grazing with heifers, and 3) grazing with ewes and their offspring. The stocking rate was similar in the grazed treatments. Forage biomass production and animal intake were estimated using grazing exclosure cages and botanical composition by visual assessment. Effect on lamb performance was evaluated by live weight gain and slaughter traits in sheep subjected to three treatments: 1) Common farm procedure with summer range pasturing, 2) spring grazing period extended by one month on the abandoned grassland before summer range pasturing, and 3) spring and summer grazing on the abandoned grassland. Grazing distribution patterns were studied using GPS position collars on ewes. Total annual biomass production was on average 72% higher with summer grazing than without. Annual consumption and utilization was on average 218 g DM/m2 and 70% when summer grazed, and 25 g DM/m2 and 18% without grazing, respectively. Botanical composition did not differ between treatments. Live weight gain was higher in lambs subjected to an extended spring grazing period (255 g/d) compared to common farm practice (228 g/d) and spring and summer grazing on the abandoned grassland (203 g/d), and carcass value was 14% higher in lambs on extended spring grazing compared to common farm practice. In autumn, sheep preferred to graze areas grazed by sheep during summer. Re-introduction of grazing stimulated forage production, and extended spring grazing improved performance in lambs. This study has quantified the value of abandoned grassland as a

Biogeochemical dynamics and bioaccumulation processes in Manila clam: Implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon

The present work was carried out in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon (Portugal) to better understand the dynamics driving the bioaccumulation processes in edible bivalves, namely in the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum. For the first time, a holistic approach was applied, collecting data on sediment physico-chemical characteristics and its contamination, geochemical speciation and metal(loid) bioaccumulation in clams, from three exploited areas of the lagoon (Costa Nova, Torreira, Ílhavo). The Ria de Aveiro Lagoon is part of the Natura 2000 network, has the designation of Special Protection Area (SPA), contains Sites of Community Importance (SCI), it is protected by the EU Birds Directive (79/109/CEE) and includes a natural reserve in its northern part. Specifically concerning the metal(loid) occurrence, the monitoring and the identification of contaminated sites in protected areas are priorities, to improve the biodiversity conservation efforts and to ensure the correct management of natural resources.Results showed that multiple driving forces interacted together to determine site-specific impacts, resulting in different risks at local scale for the transferring of the metal(loid)s to the trophic chain. Hydrodynamics played a major role driving the occurrence of depositional or ablative sites, influencing the granulometric composition of sediments and their contamination; metal(loid) chemical forms were then determinated by multiple factors like pH, redox potential and organic matter content. The geochemical speciation data showed that the Ílhavo area should be considered the most dangerous in terms of clam consumption, since in case of environmental changes, possible conversion of the elements from the potentially bioavailable forms to the bioavailable ones can occur. Moreover, bioaccumulation processes in Manila clam were observed for Cd, Zn and especially As, the latter representing serious risk for consumer safety throughout clam consumption.

Modelling biodiversity trends in the montado (wood pasture) landscapes of the Alentejo, Portugal

ContextMontados are dynamic agroforestry systems of southern Portugal, with high economic and ecological values. Changes in land use and cover have important implications for landscape-level biodiversity and its conservation.ObjectivesOur objectives were to evaluate the biodiversity values and trends in a montado system in the Alentejo, Portugal so as to inform landscape level conservation approaches. In doing so, we aimed to develop a replicable and robust approach drawing together field observation, expert opinion, and remote sensing to produce predictions relevant to land management planning.MethodsField sampling and subsequent analysis of data on the birds, butterflies and plants in eight distinct land covers allowed the identification of two principal habitat groupings of importance: ‘montado mosaic’ and ‘shrubland’. Morphological spatial pattern analysis was performed on Landsat-derived GIS habitat layers for 1984 and 2009, generating maps and statistics for change in the different landscape functional classes. In addition, we demonstrated how the modelling of ecotones between open and closed biomes can identify the preferred hunting grounds of the threatened Iberian lynx and black vulture, flagship species whose conservation provides benefits to the area’s wider biodiversity values.ResultsTotal and core area of montado mosaics and shrubland increased over the 25 year period, whilst the amount of habitat connectivity declined in the case of shrubland. Considerable local variation in these trends highlighted targetable areas for conservation action (e.g. through agri-environment spending).ConclusionsA rapid and robust approach was demonstrated, with potentially wider utility for biodiversity assessment and planning.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Valuable habitat and low deforestation can reduce biodiversity gains from development rights markets

Abstract Illegal private land deforestation threatens global biodiversity, even in areas with native habitat requirements stipulated by law. Compliance can be improved by allowing landholders to meet legal reserve requirements by buying and selling the rights to have deforested land through a Tradeable Development Rights system (TDR). While this policy mechanism may prevent native habitat area loss, the spatial pattern of reserved areas will shift, creating novel landscape patterns. The resulting altered fragmentation and connectivity of habitat will impact biodiversity. TDR may also allow landholders to earn rent on land they never intended on converting, resulting in additional deforestation elsewhere and net habitat loss. We construct a simulation model to explore the potential implications for biodiversity when development rights can be traded, compared with the landscape resulting from enforced individual compliance with deforestation laws. We find that where future deforestation is very likely, a TDR market can provide better outcomes for both biodiversity and agriculture, resulting in more connected habitat networks with larger fragments and fewer edge effects. However, the TDR market can be harmful if future deforestation is unlikely, or if one habitat type is tightly spatially correlated with high economic returns from agriculture. Policy implications. Allowing landholders to buy and sell the rights to keep more cleared land than legally stipulated will result in transformed multiuse landscapes. Losses of native habitat in some areas will be offset in others. We conclude that trading forest development rights has the potential to improve habitat configurations, but that careful consideration should be given to current species distributions and likely future deforestation scenarios.

Satellite remote sensing of land cover change in a mixed agro-silvo-pastoral landscape in the Alentejo, Portugal

ABSTRACTMixed agro-silvo-pastoral landscapes are typically of significant natural, economic and cultural value. The montado (wood pasture) dominated systems of southern Portugal are a prime example, and experience high rates of land cover change. Tracking these changes is of importance for landscape level conservation and management. Whilst satellite remote sensing is the most realistic approach at large spatial scales, heterogeneous landscapes can present challenges to the accurate classification of land cover and its change. In this investigation we demonstrate a novel approach to the investigation of land cover change over a 25 year period (1984–2009) in an area of importance for the conservation of the Iberian lynx, Black vulture, and other threatened biodiversity in south-east Alentejo, Portugal. We apply a Tasselled Cap Transformation (TCT) to Landsat imagery from these two years, and then Change Vector Analysis (CVA) on the transformed data to highlight areas of vegetation gain and loss during the intervening period. Using a 2009 land cover classification, and a set of rules based on these vegetation changes, we then predict the land change over the 25 year period focussing on predominant classes of vegetation physiognomy. The results are discussed in terms of probable drivers, as well as implications for biodiversity and other landscape values.

Cumulative effects of wildfires on forest dynamics in the eastern Cascade Mountains, USA.

Wildfires pose a unique challenge to conservation in fire-prone regions, yet few studies quantify the cumulative effects of wildfires on forest dynamics (i.e., changes in structural conditions) across landscape and regional scales. We assessed the contribution of wildfire to forest dynamics in the eastern Cascade Mountains, USA from 1985 to 2010 using imputed maps of forest structure (i.e., tree size and canopy cover) and remotely sensed burn severity maps. We addressed three questions: (1) How do dynamics differ between the region as a whole and the unburned portion of the region? (2) How do dynamics vary among vegetation zones differing in biophysical setting and historical fire frequency? (3) How have forest structural conditions changed in a network of late successional reserves (LSRs)? Wildfires affected 10% of forests in the region, but the cumulative effects at this scale were primarily slight losses of closed-canopy conditions and slight gains in open-canopy conditions. In the unburned portion of the region (the remaining 90%), closed-canopy conditions primarily increased despite other concurrent disturbances (e.g., harvest, insects). Although the effects of fire were largely dampened at the regional scale, landscape scale dynamics were far more variable. The warm ponderosa pine and cool mixed conifer zones experienced less fire than the region as a whole despite experiencing the most frequent fire historically. Open-canopy conditions increased slightly in the mixed conifer zone, but declined across the ponderosa pine zone even with wildfires. Wildfires burned 30% of the cold subalpine zone, which experienced the greatest increase in open-canopy conditions and losses of closed-canopy conditions. LSRs were more prone to wildfire than the region as a whole, and experienced slight declines in late seral conditions. Despite losses of late seral conditions, wildfires contributed to some conservation objectives by creating open habitats (e.g., sparse early seral and woodland conditions) that otherwise generally decreased in unburned landscapes despite management efforts to increase landscape diversity. This study demonstrates the potential for wildfires to contribute to regional scale conservation objectives, but implications for management and biodiversity at landscape scales vary geographically among biophysical settings, and are contingent upon historical dynamics and individual species habitat preferences.