Impact of land use and land cover change on streamflow dynamics within the Meki River watershed of the Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin.

Both groundwater and surface water are essential sources of freshwater worldwide. In urban and peri-urban areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania), the scarcity of good quality surface water has led to a groundwater overexploitation in the coastal aquifer. This is due to the growing water demand driven by demographic and economic development of the city. The rapid and uncontrolled urban expansion, together with the increase of impermeable areas, have negative impacts on the aquifer recharge, water table decrease and runoff increase, causing higher risk of flooding, erosion and water shortage. This paper presents the separate assessments of land use land cover change (LULCC) and climate variability impacts on water budget in the study area, using remote sensing datasets, which have followed the evolution of Dar Es Salaam City during the period 2002-2022. The assessments show how rapid urbanization has increased runoff and reduced aquifer recharge, leading to flooding risks and groundwater degradation. In 20 years, within the hydrogeological basin, the aquifer lost 30% of the recharge water volume, on average. Climate variability has affected the specific annual recharge and runoff volumes, especially in the last decade, due to an important rainfall increase. This paper demonstrates that combining the analysis of LULCC and climate variability in catchment areas with geomorphological ones and hydrogeological water budget method can provide a thorough understanding of uncontrolled urban spread effects on water resources balance and support evidence based decision-making spatial planning and environmental management. The study is part of the WECOAdapt project (Water management through ECOhydrology for climate change ADAPTation) that focuses on the reduction of negative impacts on floods and droughts due to unsustainable urban development, aiming to reverse/reduce the degradation of water and land resources.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on habitat connectivity: A case study of the Igando Igawa Wildlife Corridor, Southern Tanzania

INRODUCTIONSince the 1980s, Mamminasata, which includes Makassar city, Maros Regency, Gowa Regency, and Takalar Regency, has transformed into a metropolitan area in Eastern Indonesia (Sulmiah et al., 2019).Makassar serves as the main growth hub (metropolitan core), with its influence extending to the surrounding regions.Maros Regency, as one of the buffer regencies (metropolitan periphery) in the Mamminasata area, contributed to the highest economic growth of the other regencies, with a primary economy of 25.33% (agricultural), a secondary economy of 20.15% (industrial management activities), and a tertiary economy of 54.50% (trade and provision of services) from 2015-2020(Yanuar et al., 2023)).This economic growth cannot be separated from the role of its natural landfill, namely, the Maros watershed, which functions as a critical ecological and economic support system, supplying water for domestic consumption, industrial operations, transportation infrastructure (National Strategic Project/PSN of the Makassar-Parepare Railway and Sultan

Soil erosion is a serious threat to land and water resources, affecting groundwater availability and agricultural productivity on a global scale. Accurate data on soil erosion rates is important for organising effective land conservation strategies. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of soil erosion in the Sindh catchment of Kashmir Valley, India, over a decade (2013–2023) using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The results reveal significant spatial variability in soil erosion rates, with elevated erosion observed in areas with sparse vegetation, steep slopes, and intensive agricultural practices. Between 2013 and 2023, the mean annual soil loss rose from moderate (17.04 t/ha/yr) to moderately high (33.12 t/ha/yr), corresponding to the standard RUSLE erosion severity classification (very slight: 0–5; slight: 5–10; moderate: 10–20; moderately high: 20–40; high: 40–80; severe: 80–120; very severe: >120 t/ha/yr). Different Land Cover/Land Use (LULC) classes exhibited varying rates of soil erosion. In 2013 and 2023, it rose from 13.18 to 53.63 t/ha/yr in agricultural land, from 20.82 to 45.94 t/ha/yr in riverine cover, from 21.96 to 37.72 in barren land, from 10.19 to 27.29 t/ha/yr in forest cover, and from 13.02 to 41.49 t/ha/year in build-up area. However, in glaciated terrain, the average soil loss decreased from 25.47 to 11.93 t/ha/yr in 2023 and from 14.66 to 13.81 t/ha/yr in the waterbody class of land use. These changes highlight the significant role of LULC dynamics, particularly the expansion of build-up areas and agricultural land, in influencing soil erosion patterns. The study highlights the critical implementation of integrated soil conservation measures, reduce soil erosion, and ensure sustainable land management in Sindh catchment.

River flooding during rainy season is partly resulted from land cover changes. This study analyzes the impact of land cover changes on flood hydrographs using Curve Number (CN), Impervious (I), and Initial Abstraction (Ia). Land cover data (2009 and 2022) were obtained from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, while the 2035 scenario was modeled with QGIS MOLUSCE (ANN). CN and I values were then applied in HEC-HMS simulations with SCS and Snyder Unit Hydrograph methods. Results show major land conversion by 2035 is particularly from dryland to rice fields, built-up areas, and forest plantations. The 2035 land cover prediction had minimum overall error of 0.0332 and Kappa coefficient of 0.765, indicating good model reliability. Composite CN increased from 67.9 (2009) to 68.0 (2022) and 68.4 (2035); I values from 5.6 to 5.7 and 6.4; while Ia decreased from 24.0 to 23.9 and 23.5 (2035). Flood discharges with the SCS method rise from 617.2 m³/s (2009) to 623.8 m³/s (2022) and 641.3 m³/s (2035), while the Snyder method produced 621.3, 621.6, and 630.5 m³/s. Statistical comparison between simulated and frequency-based design flood discharge results in PBIAS values of 0.1–0.2 (very good) and NSE of 1.0 (very good). The discharge increases of 1.1–2.8% indicate that land cover changes contribute to higher flood potential, but still in moderate level as most conversion is to rice fields, which function as temporary water storage and delay direct runoff.

Abstract The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) has experienced significant vegetation changes in recent decades, including shifts in land cover types (grassland expansion) and greening. Nevertheless, the feedback mechanisms between vegetation changes and regional climate, as well as its impact on the hydrological cycles, are yet to be adequately quantified. This study employs high‐resolution vegetation data and RegCM5.0‐CLM4.5 simulations to assess the impacts of vegetation change on the QTP. Through sensitivity experiments involving alterations in plant functional types and leaf area index (LAI), the effects on temperature and hydrological cycles are evaluated. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, notable increases in LAI were concentrated in the eastern QTP. When only bare land changed to grassland, there was significant warming on the plateau. When LAI also increased, temperature was influenced by both evaporation and albedo changes. As LAI further expanded, evaporative cooling dominated, temperature decreased, precipitation and total runoff increased, and the water cycle accelerated.

• Land use and land cover change drives deforestation and forest degradation in Bobiri Forest Reserve. • Spatiotemporal analysis (1986–2024) reveals 9.3% deforestation of closed forest cover. • Logging reduced ecological species metrics: richness, diversity, biomass, carbon, and seed trees also declined confirming forest degradation. • Forest degradation caused 37% decline in biomass and carbon stock based on allometric evaluation. • Urgent interventions needed to restore biodiversity and ecosystem resilience in Ghanaian forest reserves and the tropics. • Forest restoration is therefore vital to restore biodiversity, ecosystems, and carbon storage, to reduce climate change impacts. Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, posing significant threats to protected forests and their ecosystem services. However, the impact of LULCC in the Bobiri Forest Reserve remains understudied, with limited evidence of the ecological consequences for the forest. In this study, we investigated (i) the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover in the reserve; (ii) the effects of these changes on species ecological metrics; and (iii) the implications of these changes for the retention of tree seed sources. We applied remote sensing and spatiotemporal analysis to a 38-year dataset (1986–2024), using Landsat 5 TM (1986), Landsat 7 ETM+ (2008), and Sentinel-2 L2A (2024) imagery to quantify LULCC. Our results revealed a deforestation rate of 9.30% between 1986 and 2024, with closed forest consistently transformed into open forest, cropland, and settlements or roads. Evaluation of forest degradation using tree inventory data from eight 1-hectare permanent sample plots (censused in 1990 and re-censused in 2022) showed a 37% decline in biomass and carbon stock. Logging-induced degradation significantly reduced species diversity, species richness, seed tree populations and canopy structure, including the loss of 2,496 trees across six species families. Normality of paired differences was assessed using the Shapiro–Wilk test and Q–Q plots, and effects were analysed using paired t-tests (p < 0.05). The impacts of LULCC on the Bobiri Forest Reserve have critical implications for biodiversity conservation, forest carbon dynamics, and natural regeneration. We conclude that urgent interventions are needed to curb unsustainable LULCC and to promote restoration strategies that safeguard the reserve’s ecological resilience, with action required from all policymakers.

ABSTRACT Rapid industrialization, climate change, urbanization, agriculture, and land use change have increased global water demand, making sustainable groundwater recharge (GWR) and management a critical concern. This study examines the dominance of land use in controlling GWR in the Guna Tana Watershed (GTW) using the WetSpass-M, addressing gaps in understanding the effects of land use/ land cover (LULC) change on recharge dynamics. The major findings were as follows: (1) The built-up area in the GTW expanded markedly from 0.05 km2 in 1991 to 8.08 km2 in 2021, significantly influencing recharge. (2) In 1991, land use was dominated by agriculture (78.82%), followed by grassland (6.96%) and shrubland (5.92%), with notable LULC change identified using ENVI 5.3. (3) AET accounted for the majority of water loss in the watershed in all land use scenarios (43.7, 43.8, and 44.3%), followed by runoff (24.3, 24.2, and 25.2%) in 1991, 2007, and 2021, respectively. (4) The corresponding average annual GWR declined from 351 mm/year in 1991 to 349 mm/year in 2007 and 344 mm/year in 2021, indicating a gradual reduction associated with LULC changes. This study improves GWR estimation through enhanced spatial and temporal resolution and demonstrates the influence of land use on GWR in the GTW.

Urbanization in secondary Indian cities is reshaping local thermal environments by converting natural and agricultural surfaces into impervious built-up areas. This study examines three decades of changes in land use and land cover and their influence on land surface temperature in Ballia City, Uttar Pradesh, using Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI TIRS imagery for the years 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2024. Supervised classification with the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was used to map land use transitions, and standard thermal retrieval procedures were applied to extract land surface temperature. Multispectral indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Built-up Index, Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, and Modified Normalized Difference Bare Soil Index, were computed to examine biophysical controls. Linear regression was performed to quantify the relationships between land surface temperature and spectral indices. The results show that built-up area expanded from 26.4 percent to 59.7 percent of the city’s area, while agricultural land declined from 47.1 percent to 23.3 percent, vegetation from 12.3 percent to 7 percent, and water bodies from 2 percent to 0.3 percent. Mean land surface temperature increased from 27.3 °C in 1994 to 34.2 °C in 2024, indicating a total rise of 6.9 °C. Thermal zone analysis shows the disappearance of cooler classes below 25.5 °C and the emergence of extreme heat zones above 35.8 °C that now cover 7.8 percent of the city. Vegetation exhibited a consistent negative association with land surface temperature, while built-up surfaces were moderately and positively associated with higher temperatures. Water bodies and bare soil showed weak negative relationships, indicating their limited cooling influence under expanding urban pressure. Overall, rapid urbanization is the dominant driver of surface warming in Ballia, increasing thermal stress and reducing ecological resilience. Strengthening green corridors, restoring wetlands, and promoting peri urban agroforestry in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 11 and India’s Sustainable Habitat Mission can help mitigate rising temperatures. These findings underscore the need for locally tailored land use policies to balance urban growth with environmental sustainability.

ABSTRACT This study examined the impact of land use land cover (LULC) change across the various geomorphological zones in relation to mining activities using remote sensing and random forest (RF) in the Musonoi copper‒cobalt deposit of Democratic Republic of Congo (1994–2024). The RF yielded an overall classification accuracy ranging from 77.96% to 86.20% and Cohen’s Kappa of 0.73 to 0.83. Results of this study, shows that expansion mining activities signicantly affected LULC features overtime, especially agricultural land. The hydrothermal alteration zones are dominated by chlorite, ferrous silicate and kaolinite - highlighting areas affected copper mineralisation. The findings of the study offer baseline information critical for understanding mining-induced landscape dynamics and identifying altered zones potentially linked to copper deposits. Therefore, this study further contributes to international imperatives, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which focus on responsible resource extraction and environmental sustainability.

ABSTRACT The urban ecosystem in the study area faces habitat degradation and pollution, a decrease in biodiversity, mainly attributed to rapid urban expansion and poor management of green infrastructure. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to estimate the impact of land use and land cover changes on urban ecosystem services values and functions. Explanatory research design was applied to provide a comprehensive analysis of the study. An integrated valuation method adapted for Ethiopian conditions has been used to estimate ecosystem service values and functions in relation to land use land cover changes of 2006–2022 in the study area. Coefficient of Sensitivity (CS) is also used to assess the reliability of the estimation process for using the land use land cover classes as a proxy with the equivalent biomes. The result of this study showed that between 2006 and 2016, built-up area and open-area were increased by +186.23ha/year and 26.72ha/year, respectively. Conversely, water body, forestland and agricultural land were decreased by −10.7ha/year, −18.1ha/year and −163.22 ha/year, respectively, in the study area. Similar trends were observed between 2016 and 2022. Throughout the study period (2006–2022), the study found that the ecosystem service value of water body, forest and agricultural land was reduced. The total ecosystem service value also declined from US$ 4.57 million in 2006 to US$ 3.1million in 2016 and reduced to US$ 2.63 million in 2022 as well. This decline was primarily due to reduced coverage of water body, agricultural area and forest land in the study area. Total values of ecosystem service functions also decreased from US$ 4.55 million in 2006 to US$ 3.1 million in 2010 and US$ 2.62 million in 2022. The regulatory ecosystem services were the primary contributors to the overall ecosystem service values, which were followed by provisioning, supporting and cultural ecosystem services. Such observed changes in land use land covers have important implications for ecosystem service values and functions. Therefore, policy makers and urban planners should consider these findings for developing urban land use planning and sustainable urban development.

Integrated remote sensing approach to assess impact of landcover change on eutrophication in a semi-arid dam reservoir

This study aims to assess the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the monetary valuation of ecosystem services valuations (ESVs) in the coal mining-affected region of Ramgarh district, Jharkhand, India. The key objectives include: (i) analyzing LULC dynamics from 1990 to 2021 and predicting changes for 2061, and (ii) quantifying the gains and losses in ESVs across different land categories. To achieve this, satellite imagery was used to generate LULC maps for the years 1990 and 2021, while future projections for 2061 were developed using the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model. The benefit transfer method was employed to estimate the ESVs based on per-hectare value coefficients assigned to specific land use types. Results reveal that between 1990 and 2021, the total ESV declined by approximately USD 18.52 million, primarily due to the loss of vegetation and water bodies. A further projected decline of USD 38.82 million is anticipated between 2021 and 2061, totaling a cumulative loss of USD 57.34 million over the study period. While cropland and built-up areas recorded marginal increases in ESVs, these gains were insufficient to compensate for the substantial losses in regulating and supporting services. The findings underscore the critical need to integrate ecosystem service valuation into land-use planning, particularly in mining-intensive landscapes. The study demonstrates that without policy interventions favoring ecological conservation, continued land transformation will undermine long-term environmental sustainability and socio-economic resilience in the region.

Impacts of land use land cover changes on wetland ecosystem services in Dandi Lake, Oromia, Ethiopia: An analysis using Google Earth Engine and machine learning

The Chure mountain range of Nepal is witnessing rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) due to increasing anthropogenic pressures, with significant implications for forest carbon storage. This study assesses the impact of the LULC changes on forest carbon in Raktamala Community Forest (CF), Saptari, using remote sensing, Geographic Information System and field-based methods. A total of 56 circular plots, with radii of 12.61 m for trees, 2.82 m for saplings and 1.87 m for soil, were established in the field. Tree diameter at breast height and height were measured, and carbon was estimated for aboveground biomass, belowground roots, saplings and soil. The results indicated a decline in forest cover from 54% in 2000 to 52% in 2022. The average carbon stock in 2022 was 156.60 ± 13.42 t ha⁻¹. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the estimated total forest carbon and CO2 equivalents for 2000 and 2010 were 28,537.52 t (104,447.3 t CO2) and 27,962.5 t (102,342.7 t CO2) respectively. These findings support the development of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation baselines and sustainable forest management.

Strategic urban planning has the potential to transform cities into climate-resilient ecosystems, thereby tackling challenges of urbanization, particularly reducing pollution and vegetation loss. One of the main consequences of urbanization is the increase in land surface temperature (LST), which exacerbates outdoor thermal discomfort—a growing concern for urban areas globally. This study examines the impact of land cover changes on outdoor thermal comfort in Qatar, a rapidly urbanizing country in the Middle East. We analyzed summer diurnal LST variations and their effect on the Discomfort Index (DI) using 23 years (decadal interval from 2000 to 2023) of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data from Terra satellites and high-resolution Landsat imagery. Our findings reveal that the average difference between summer daytime and nighttime temperatures has decreased by 2°C. However, a detailed analysis of LST variations across different land cover types shows that urban areas experienced a decrease of 4°C in LST during the daytime from 2000 to 2023, while desert areas experienced an increase in daytime LST by 4°C. At night, the urban areas were cooler by 1°C, and the desert areas were cooler by 3°C, resulting in an increase in the diurnal range of approximately 5°C from 2000 to 2023. These regional and temporal variations underscore the vulnerability of Qatar’s arid desert ecosystems to rising summer temperatures, raising concerns about their long-term sustainability. This study emphasizes the need to implement evidence-based urban planning to improve outdoor thermal comfort and mitigate climate hazards in rapidly urbanizing arid regions.

Modelling the impact of climate and land cover changes on hydrological cycle components: a case of the middle Huai river basin

Squirrels are one of the least studied mammalian faunas in south Asia. Squirrels are habitat-specialists and therefore are sensitive to changes in climate and land cover. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the impact and conservation implications of climate and land cover change. We used species distribution modelling to predict the distribution of species in suitable habitats and the impacts of future climate change. Three species of squirrels that prefer heterogeneous arboreal habitat and have high occurrence records were assessed through maximum entropy modelling. Eight uncorrelated bioclimatic variables and six Euclidean distances of land used and land cover change were used for MaxEnt modelling under current and four different scenarios of climate change. For two species (Callosciurus pygerythrus and Petaurista magnificus) the maximum and minimum possible areas of habitat suitability under the current climatic scenario were predicted in Nepal. The distribution of suitable habitats for all representative species of squirrels was predicted from eastern to central Nepal, due to no record of baseline data. Habitat suitability of three species of squirrels is projected to change by 2050 and 2070 under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios, contingent on climate and land used and land cover change. In the future, suitable distribution range of the habitat of C. pygerythrus is predicted to shrink, whereas the distribution ranges of suitable habitat of Dremomys lokriah and P. magnificus predicted to expand. This is the first study targeted the distribution modeling of squirrels in Nepal. The results from this study inform future surveys and highlight the importance of monitoring needs for the conservation of squirrels throughout Nepal.

Population growth and agricultural expansion cause major changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in Ethiopia. Cultivated lands are mostly expanding without land suitability evaluation. Consequently, crop yields are not increasing as expected. This is particularly the case in the highland catchments draining toward Lake Tana, where severe consequences such as deforestation and the degradation of soil and land can be observed. In this study, the impacts of long-term LULC dynamics on the land suitability potential for selected major crops in three sub-catchments of Lake Tana, Ethiopia (Gilgelabay, Gumara and Ribb), were evaluated. Time series of Landsat images from three periods (1988, 1998, and 2017) were classified. Land suitability was analyzed via a multi criteria approach based on spatial input data such as elevation, soil, and slope maps. The overall accuracy for all LULC classifications was good to very good (89.7% to 91.6%). Five major LULC classes were distinguished: agriculture, forest, shrub/bushland, grassland, and water. In all three catchments, the results revealed that agricultural land was the dominant land cover that expanded at the expense of the other land cover types to 80%-90% in all catchments in 2017. The rate of change in agricultural land in the Gilgelabay catchment (4041.3 ha/yr) was greater than that in the Gumara (1374.5 ha/yr) and Ribb (1362.3 ha/yr) catchments. This is possibly due to the availability of other LULC classes. The natural vegetation of Gilgelabay, Gumara, and Ribb has decreased by 16.0%, 10.5%, and 1.1%, respectively, over the past three decades. However, the present LULC change trends are unsustainable, and any remaining natural vegetation should be maintained. The results from the land suitability analysis revealed that the land suitability for teff, corn, and rice is likely to change with climate change in the future. To ensure sustainable land use management, modifying land use on the basis of land suitability should be preferred over traditional practices to improve crop production. This can be achieved in close collaboration with all stakeholders, including local communities, the government, and NGOs.