Idiosyncratic Changes Research Articles

Poverty alleviation and consumption insurance: Evidence from PROGRESA in Mexico

This study uses three rounds of panel data between October 1998 and November 1999 and covering 506 villages and 24,000 households in rural Mexico, to examine how the replacement of pre-existing subsidy programs by a conditional cash transfer program such as PROGRESA (the Health, Education and Nutrition Program) affects the consumption insurance of households. The results obtained are consistent with the prevalence of formal or informal insurance arrangements aimed at protecting household consumption from fluctuations in income. Yet, total consumption, as well as food and nonfood consumption, are significantly correlated with idiosyncratic changes in income suggesting that insurance is incomplete. A comparison of the results between villages covered and not yet covered by PROGRESA (treatment versus control villages) suggests that PROGRESA did not replace or reinforce any pre-existing risk sharing among households within villages or lead to any substantial changes in how households cope with shocks. The analysis also revealed that households eligible for the PROGRESA benefits in the treatment villages were able to insulate their consumption from fluctuations in income better than their counterparts in control villages. Thus, a poverty alleviation program providing cash transfers conditioned on households investing in their human capital is associated with a reduction of household vulnerability to risk.

Fiscal policy and entrepreneurship

This paper reexamines the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on real GDP in the presence of entrepreneurship when government expenditure partially crowds out private consumption. As government expenditure cannot reflect changes in consumers’ tastes, expansionary fiscal policy weakens the social role of firms’ activities to predict and adapt to idiosyncratic changes in consumers’ taste. I show that expansionary fiscal policy can lower real GDP when idiosyncratic risk and the substitutability of goods are large and when firms have a strong ability to predict changes in consumer tastes. I also investigate how expansionary fiscal policy influences firms’ investments in prediction ability.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles

An Empirical Study of Securities Disclosure Practices

Using a dataset of sovereign bond offering documents and underlying bond contracts for ten sovereign issuers from 1985 to 2005, we examine the securities disclosure practices of issuers and attorneys. The sovereign bond market is comprised of sophisticated issuers with highly paid attorney law firms. If anyone complies fully with federal securities disclosure requirements, we expect sovereign issuers and their attorneys to do so. On the other hand, network effects that determine what information issuers choose to disclose as well as the high cost of determining what information is required for disclosure may lead issuers to fail to meet their disclosure duties. We provide evidence that sovereign issuers in fact may not fully meet their disclosure duties in one context. Where shocks occur to how courts interpret language in existing boilerplate bond contracts, leading to material and idiosyncratic changes in the underlying allocation of substantive rights for the different issuers, we find zero disclosure to investors. Conversely, we find that where there is less of a legal requirement for disclosure, such as when the entire market shifts publicly to using explicit collective action clauses in the bond contracts, there is a high level of disclosure. Over time, long after such terms have become the market standard and thus part of the total mix of information, this heightened level of disclosure continues. In sum, we find heightened disclosure in the place where the legal obligations (and investor need) for disclosure are less significant and no disclosure in the place where legal obligations (and investor need) for disclosure are more significant.

Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

Morphological processing in early bilinguals: An ERP study of regular and irregular verb processing

Although the age of acquisition of a language has an effect when learning a second language, the similarity between languages may also have a crucial role. The aim of the present study is to understand the influence of this latter factor in the acquisition of morphosyntactic information. With this purpose, two groups of highly proficient early Catalan–Spanish bilinguals were presented with a repetition-priming paradigm with regular and irregular verbs of Spanish. Catalan and Spanish have a similar suffix ( -o) for regular verbs and completely different alternations for irregular verbs. Two types of irregular verbs were studied (semi-regular verbs with a systematic diphthong alternation, sentir–siento, and verbs with idiosyncratic changes, venir–vengo). Regular verbs showed the same centro-parietal N400 priming effect in the second-language speakers (L2) as in primary-language (L1) speakers. However, differences between groups, in the ERP pattern and the topography of the N400 effect, were observed for irregular morphology. In L1 speakers, the N400 effect was attenuated only for semi-regular verbs. In contrast, L2 speakers showed a reduced N400 priming effect in both irregular contrasts. This pattern of results suggests that the similarity between languages may help for similar structures but may interfere for dissimilar structures, at least when the two languages have very similar morphological systems.

Single-leaf resolution of the temporal population dynamics of Aureobasidium pullulans on apple leaves.

The abundance of phylloplane microorganisms typically varies over several orders of magnitude among leaves sampled concurrently. Because the methods traditionally used to sample leaves are destructive, it has remained unclear whether this high variability is due to fixed differences in habitat quality among leaves or to asynchronous temporal variation in the microbial population density on individual leaves. We developed a novel semidestructive assay to repeatedly sample the same apple leaves from orchard trees over time by removing progressively more proximal approximately 1-cm-wide transverse segments. Aureobasidium pullulans densities were determined by standard leaf homogenization and plating procedures and were expressed as CFU per square centimeter of segment. The A. pullulans population densities among leaves were lognormally distributed. The variability in A. pullulans population densities among subsections of a given leaf was one-third to one-ninth the variability among whole leaves harvested concurrently. Sequential harvesting of leaf segments did not result in detectable changes in A. pullulans density on residual leaf surfaces. These findings implied that we could infer whole-leaf A. pullulans densities over time by using partial leaves. When this successive sampling regimen was applied over the course of multiple 7- to 8-day experiments, the among-leaf effects were virtually always the predominant source of variance in A. pullulans density estimates. Changes in A. pullulans density tended to be synchronous among leaves, such that the rank order of leaves arrayed with respect to A. pullulans density was largely maintained through time. Occasional periods of asynchrony were observed, but idiosyncratic changes in A. pullulans density did not contribute appreciably to variation in the distribution of populations among leaves. This suggests that persistent differences in habitat (leaf) quality are primarily responsible for the variation in A. pullulans density among leaves in nature.

Beyond beliefs: Challenging obsessive thoughts and compulsive behaviours within a collaborative counselling relationship

Three clients with obsessive‐compulsive disorder were studied using a multiple case study approach. Clients' experiences of cognitive‐behavioural therapy, in particular the impact of having their beliefs challenged, and their responses to self‐monitoring tasks and behavioural experiments were investigated. Data included case notes made during therapy, pre‐ and post‐therapy questionnaires, and post‐therapy semi‐structured interviews. Qualitative analysis of the data identified clients' obsessive beliefs, general negative beliefs and meta‐cognitive beliefs, and explored any post‐therapy changes in these beliefs. The results demonstrated similarities between cases in obsessive beliefs (e.g. inflated responsibility for harm), general negative beliefs (e.g. feelings of failure), meta‐cognitive beliefs (e.g. the need to control thoughts) and affect (e.g. guilt). Questionnaire data from all three clients suggested no clinically significant post‐therapy changes in general negative beliefs and meta‐cognitive beliefs. However, idiosyncratic changes in obsessive beliefs were reported during therapy and at post‐therapy interview, and clients reported improved functioning and decreased levels of distress during therapy and at interview. Responses to challenge were uniformly positive, but reactions to self‐monitoring and behavioural experiments varied across cases. The implications of these findings for the treatment of obsessive‐compulsive disorder using cognitive behavioural techniques are discussed.

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?*

AbstractThis paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that small‐firm prices also lag large‐firm prices with respect to industry‐wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security‐price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry‐wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same‐industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?*

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm-specific information. Specifically, we find that small-firm prices also lag large-firm prices with respect to industry-wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security-price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry-wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same-industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm-specific information. Specifically, we find that small-firm prices also lag large-firm prices with respect to industry-wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn (1987) and Freeman (1987), who document that security-price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm?s industry and the firm?s idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms? prices have a longer lead than small firms? prices with respect to both components. Large firms? early lead on industry-wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same-industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month?s returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.

Learning to teach: Knowledge development in classroom management

How does knowledge acquisition contribute to the process of learning to teach? To answer this question, qualitative and quantitative data were collected to investigate the development of teacher candidate knowledge about classroom management within an elementary teacher education program. Specifically, concept maps and interviews revealed patterns of cognitive change over a two-quarter sequence of courses. Analysis of concept maps showed turbulent and idiosyncratic change influenced by program experiences, with an apparent decline in cognitive organization. In interviews candidates deemphasized program influences, focusing instead on clinical experiences as the impetus of cognitive change. These findings—the turbulent apparent decline in cognitive structure and the primacy of field experiences—are explained in terms of Anderson's ACT∗ learning theory. Implications for future research in teacher's conceptual development are discussed.

The Perils of Periodical Indexes

This article is about a topic neglected in the social science literature on content analysis and culture indicators methodology—problems in using periodical indexes to construct research samples. The author briefly identifies and discusses reasons why article headlines located through indexes' subject categories can prove to be misleading indicators and then turn to the methodological difficulties arising from historical and idiosyncratic changes in index subject category headings and subheadings—difficulties particularly relevant to longitudinal research. The author argues that researchers using an index's subject categories should test not only for category longevity but also for category coherence and consistency over time. The use of oversampling, cross-references, and other devices is suggested as a means to correct or compensate for hidden inaccuracies in index classification and to construct purposive samples for analytic comparisons.

Evaluation of Gene Deletions by Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction

In order to evaluate the feasibility of using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to evaluate gene dosage, we developed an assay to detect alpha-globin genes, which are frequently deleted in alpha-thalassemia patients. In this quantitative assay alpha-1 and alpha-2 globin consensus regions are coamplified by one oligonucleotide pair, along with a second primer pair targeting a single-copy reference gene, namely, tumor necrosis factor alpha, or TNF-alpha. A series of DNA samples titrating alpha-globin against TNF-alpha DNA have a strong linear relationship between template ratios and product ratios (r > 0.98). Minimal sequence divergence (91% homology) between alpha-1 and alpha-2, internal to the identical primer annealing sites, results in a lower amplification efficiency for alpha-1, to 94% of alpha-2 for each cycle. Furthermore, when applied to a variety of individual DNA samples, the signal ratios of alpha-globin to TNF-alpha were far more variable than previously observed for titrated control DNA. We conclude that DNA isolates from different individuals may have idiosyncratic changes in amplification efficiency owing to polymorphic sequence variation and/or variable presence of unidentified contaminants. Despite these potentially confounding factors, however, we were able to identify by quantitative PCR a single gene deletion later confirmed by Southern blot analysis in 20 individual DNA samples.

Pattern recognition analysis to the variation of nasal-pharynx cancer patients' trace element levels in samples of hair, whole blood, and tissue

Pattern recognition has been used in this paper to analyze trace element levels in patients diagnosed with nasal-pharynx cancer (NPC) and in healthy control subjects. Trace elements such as Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Mg have been tested in samples of hair and whole blood. Through Mahalanobis Distance Decision analysis, we have achieved good classification effects in whole blood samples: Efficiency for distinguishing patients in 96% and that of healthy controls is 90%. Classification hair samples is inferior to whole blood: Decision accuracy for patients is 58% and healthy controls is 90%. These results are also shown in a nonlinear mapping figure. At the same time, we have also determined 5 trace element levels in 16 other cancer patients' nonneoplastic and cancerous tissue, with no significant difference between them: Decision accuracy of cancerous tissue is 63%, and in nonneoplastic tissue is 50%, hence, we cannot identify them. It can be inferred that there is no idiosyncratic change of trace elements in cancer patients' neoplastic tissue, the change of a cancerous person may occur in the whole body.

Validation of the Pethna toy through changes in collateral behaviours

The Pethna toy is a recently developed toy designed for people with severe and profound mental handicaps. It delivers sensory consequences for the use of simple manipulanda. Two experimental studies evaluated the Pethna toy by monitoring changes in multiple, collateral behaviours. Experiment I demonstrated statistically significant decreases in turn away and stereotyped behaviour and increases in smiling. Experiment II demonstrated highly idiosyncratic changes in collateral behaviours in three adults with multiple handicaps. In all cases, turn away decreased. The role of response-response relationship, subject attention and relationship of sensory behaviours to stereotypies are discussed.

AN EVALUATION OF GENTLE TEACHING AND VISUAL SCREENING IN THE REDUCTION OF STEREOTYPY

Gentle teaching and visual screening techniques have been used to control severe behavior problems in persons with mental retardation. An alternating treatments design was used to compare gentle teaching, visual screening, and a task-training condition in the reduction of the high-level stereotypy of 3 persons with mental retardation. Following a baseline phase, a task-training condition using standard behavioral techniques was implemented to establish the effects of training the subjects on the tasks. Results showed a modest decrease in stereotypy. This phase was followed by an alternating treatments phase in which visual screening, gentle teaching, and baseline conditions were compared. Both procedures were superior to the control condition in reducing stereotypic behavior, with visual screening being more effective than gentle teaching. When compared with data from the prior phase, gentle teaching was found to be more effective than task training for 2 subjects but less effective for the 3rd, whose stereotypy increased during gentle teaching. Two succeeding phases in which visual screening was implemented across two and then all three daily conditions reduced stereotypy further to near-zero levels. An additional phase with 1 subject demonstrated that the treatment effects of visual screening were easily replicated across therapists. Mixed and idiosyncratic changes in collateral behaviors occurred. For example, "bonding," the goal of gentle teaching, occurred at the same low levels under both treatments, contrary to the predictions of gentle teaching's proponents. The results indicate that gentle teaching may not be the universal treatment of choice for stereotypy its proponents suggest, and that it requires further empirical evaluation.

Individual differences in the perception of dichotic chords

A new method was employed to measure the changes in the strength of ear dominance in the perception of dichotic chords as a function of stimulus intensity. The results of the first experiment, where the right and left tones were of equal intensity, revealed striking individual differences in the way the ear dominance of five subjects changed as the intensity of the chords was varied over a 60-dB range--no two subjects exhibiting the same pattern of behavior. Since, within the context of the model of Yund and Efron [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 62, 607-617 (1977)] these individual differences could result from right-left asymmetries in the subject's intensity-response (I-R) transduction mechanisms, a second experiment was performed in which the two tones had different intensities. From the results of the second experiment the shape of the I-R function for each ear could be computed. Using these I-R functions as parameters, the model accurately predicted the idiosyncratic changes of ear dominance observed in the first experiment. The right-left asymmetries in the I-R functions also a-count for previously reported idiosyneratic changes in ear dominance as a function of the frequency difference between the two tones of the dichotic chord.

Adult development or idiosyncratic change? A plea for the developmental approach.

Journal Article Adult Development or Idiosyncratic Change? A Plea for the Developmental Approach Get access Rayman W. Bortner, Ph.D. Rayman W. Bortner, Ph.D. 1Research Unit on Aging, Veterans Administration CenterHampton, Va. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar The Gerontologist, Volume 6, Issue 3_Part_1, September 1966, Pages 159–164, https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/6.3_Part_1.159 Published: 01 September 1966