Ice Supersaturation Research Articles

Contrail altitude estimation using GOES-16 ABI data and deep learning

Abstract. The climate impact of persistent aircraft contrails is currently estimated to be comparable to that due to aviation-emitted CO2. A potential near-term and low-cost mitigation option is contrail avoidance, which involves rerouting aircraft around ice-supersaturated regions, preventing the formation of persistent contrails. Current forecasting methods for these regions of ice supersaturation have been found to be inaccurate when compared to in situ measurements. Further assessment and improvements of the quality of these predictions can be realized by comparison with observations of persistent contrails, such as those found in satellite imagery. In order to further enable comparison between these observations and contrail predictions, we develop a deep learning algorithm to estimate contrail altitudes based on GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) infrared imagery. This algorithm is trained using a dataset of 3267 contrails found within Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data and achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 570 m. The altitude estimation algorithm outputs probability distributions for the contrail top altitude in order to represent predictive uncertainty. The 95 % confidence intervals constructed using these distributions, which are shown to contain approximately 95 % of the contrail data points, are found to be 2.2 km thick on average. These intervals are found to be 34.1 % smaller than the 95 % confidence intervals constructed using flight altitude information alone, which are 3.3 km thick on average. Furthermore, we show that the contrail altitude estimates are consistent in time and, in combination with contrail detections, can be used to observe the persistence and three-dimensional (3D) evolution of contrail-forming regions from satellite images alone.

A statistically significant increase in ice supersaturation in the atmosphere in the past 40 years

Ice saturation (and supersaturation) is a frequent phenomenon in cold regions of the upper troposphere. Its existence is essential for the formation of ice clouds and a necessary condition for the persistence of contrails. Its spatial and temporal evolution is important for weather and climate. The ice saturation and supersaturation values are found in the upper tail of the probability density function (pdf) of upper tropospheric humidity with respect to ice (UTHi). Here, we analyse the changes in the frequency of occurrence of ice saturation and supersaturation from 1979 to 2020 and compare them to changes in the mean UTHi. Our results show that while the mean UTHi increases near-globally with a rate of about 0.15% per decade, high UTHi values exceeding the 70%, 80%, 90% and 100% thresholds increase faster than the mean, at rates of about 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.3% per decade, respectively. The increasing rates of values found in the upper tail of the UTHi pdf suggest that the ambient conditions for cirrus and contrail formation and persistence will be more favourable in the future and this is expected to further enhance the impact of aviation on climate.

An Empirical Parameterization of the Subgrid‐Scale Distribution of Water Vapor in the UTLS for Atmospheric General Circulation Models

AbstractTemperature and water vapor are known to fluctuate on multiple scales. In this study 27 years of airborne measurements of temperature and relative humidity from In‐service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS) are used to parameterize the distribution of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The parameterization is designed to simulate water vapor fluctuations within gridboxes of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) with typical size of a few tens to a few hundred kilometers. The distributions currently used in such models are often not supported by observations at high altitude. More sophisticated distributions are key to represent ice supersaturation, a physical phenomenon that plays a major role in the formation of natural cirrus and contrail cirrus. Here the observed distributions are fitted with a beta law whose parameters are adjusted from the gridbox mean variables. More specifically the standard deviation and skewness of the distributions are expressed as empirical functions of the average temperature and specific humidity, two typical prognostic variables of AGCMs. Thus, the distribution of water vapor is fully parameterized for a use in these models. The new parameterization reproduces the observed distributions with a determination coefficient always greater than 0.917 and with a mean value of 0.997. The parameterization is robust to a selection of various geographical subsets of data and to gridbox sizes varying between 25 and 300 km.

Effects of Turbulence on Upper-Tropospheric Ice Supersaturation

Abstract Effects of turbulence on ice supersaturation at cirrus heights (>8 km) remain unexplored. Small-scale mixing processes become important for high Reynolds number flows, which may develop below the buoyancy length scale (10–100 m). The current study couples a stochastic turbulent mixing model with reduced dimensionality to an entraining parcel model to investigate, in large-ensemble simulations, how supersaturation evolves due to homogeneous turbulence in the stably stratified, cloud-free upper troposphere. The rising parcel is forced by a mesoscale updraft. The perturbation of an initially homogeneous vertical distribution of supersaturation is studied after a 36-m ascent in a baseline case and several sensitivity scenarios. Turbulent mixing and associated temperature fluctuations alone lead to changes in ensemble-mean distributions with standard deviations in the range 0.001–0.006, while mean values are hardly affected. Large case-to-case variability in the supersaturation field is predicted with fluctuation amplitudes of up to 0.03, although such large values are rare. A vertical gradient of supersaturation (≈10−3 m−1) is generated for high turbulence intensities due to the development of a dry-adiabatic lapse rate. Entrainment of slightly warmer (less than 0.1 K) environmental air into the parcel decreases the mean supersaturation by less than 0.01. Supersaturation fluctuations are substantially larger after entrainment events with an additional small offset in absolute humidity (by ±3.5%) between the parcel and environmental air. The predicted perturbations of ice supersaturation are significant enough to motivate studies of turbulence–ice nucleation interactions during cirrus formation that abandon the assumption of instantaneous mixing inherent to traditional parcel models. Significance Statement The purpose of our study is to investigate the effects of microscale turbulence on ice supersaturation in the upper troposphere. The associated variability in temperature and moisture fields is not resolved in cloud models and cannot easily be represented in terms of large-scale flow variables. We specify the conditions in which turbulent mixing and entrainment cause substantial variations in distributions of supersaturation. These include high turbulence intensity, strong atmospheric stability, and large moisture gradients. Our results suggest that turbulence may affect the strongly supersaturation-dependent ice formation processes in high-altitude clouds, pointing to the need to investigate cirrus formation in the presence of turbulence.

Characteristics of Ice Super Saturated Regions in Washington, D.C. Airspace (2019–2023)

Contrails are estimated to contribute 2% of the Earth’s anthropogenic global warming. Contrails are ice crystal clouds formed by the emission of soot and water vapor from jet engines in atmospheric conditions known as Ice Super Saturated (ISS) regions. The formation of contrails can be avoided by flying over or under the ISS regions. Aircraft operators/dispatchers and air traffic control need to know the location of ISS regions in a given airspace to flightplan to avoid contrails. This paper describes the statistics for the presence of ISS regions in the airspace over metropolitan Washington, D.C. These statistics can be used to better understand the operational implications for contrail avoidance. Based on the measurements taken from the twice-daily launch of an aerosonde from Sterling, Virginia (adjacent to Washington, D.C.), analysis of five years of data (2019–2023) indicated that this airspace experiences ISS regions 40% of the days. ISS regions were equally likely during daylight hours (26%) than nighttime (27%). The vertical depth of the ISS region averaged 3000 feet but with a median of 2000 feet. The ISS region floor and ceiling varied by season, with an annual average floor of FL330 and ceiling of FL360. The implications of these results on the operations to avoid contrails, limitations, and future work are discussed.

How well can persistent contrails be predicted? An update

Abstract. The total aviation effective radiative forcing is dominated by non-CO2 effects. The largest contributors to the non-CO2 effects are contrails and contrail cirrus. There is the possibility of reducing the climate effect of aviation by avoiding flying through ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs), where contrails can last for hours (so-called persistent contrails). Therefore, a precise prediction of the specific location and time of these regions is needed. But a prediction of the frequency and degree of ice supersaturation (ISS) on cruise altitudes is currently very challenging and associated with great uncertainties because of the strong variability in the water vapour field, the low number of humidity measurements at the air traffic altitude, and the oversimplified parameterisations of cloud physics in weather models. Since ISS is more common in some dynamical regimes than in others, the aim of this study is to find variables/proxies that are related to the formation of ISSRs and to use these in a regression method to predict persistent contrails. To find the best-suited proxies for regressions, we use various methods of information theory. These include the log-likelihood ratios, known from Bayes' theorem, a modified form of the Kullback–Leibler divergence, and mutual information. The variables (the relative humidity with respect to ice, RHiERA5; the temperature, T; the vertical velocity, ω; the divergence, DIV; the relative vorticity, ζ; the potential vorticity, PV; the normalised geopotential height, Z; and the local lapse rate, γ) come from ERA5, and RHiM/I, which we assume as the truth, comes from MOZAIC/IAGOS (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus In-service Aircraft/In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; commercial aircraft measurements). It turns out that RHiERA5 is the most important predictor of ice supersaturation, in spite of its weaknesses, and all other variables do not help much to achieve better results. Without RHiERA5, a regression to predict ISSRs is not successful. Certain modifications of RHiERA5 before the regression (as suggested in recent papers) do not lead to improvements of ISSR prediction. Applying a sensitivity study with artificially modified RHiERA5 distributions points to the origin of the problems with the regression: the conditional distributions of RHiERA5 (conditioned on ISS and non-ISS, from RHiM/I) overlap too heavily in the range of 70 %–100 %, so for any case in that range, it is not clear whether it belongs to an ISSR or not. Evidently, this renders the prediction of contrail persistence very difficult.

An Approximate Criterion for Morphological Transformations in Small Vapor Grown Ice Crystals

Abstract Observations and measurements show that crystals remain relatively compact at low ice supersaturations, but become increasingly hollowed and complex as the ice supersaturation rises. Prior measurements at temperatures >−25°C indicate that the transition from compact, solid ice to morphologically complex crystals occurs when the excess vapor density exceeds a threshold value of about 0.05 g m−3. A comparable threshold is not available at low temperatures. A temperature-dependent criterion for the excess vapor density threshold (Δρthr) that defines morphological transformations to complex ice is derived from laboratory measurements of vapor grown ice at temperatures below −40°C. This criterion depends on the difference between the equilibrium vapor density of liquid () and ice (ρei) multiplied by a measurement-determined constant, . The new criterion is consistent with prior laboratory measurements, theoretical estimates, and it reproduces the classical result of about 0.05 g m−3 above −25°C. Since Δρthr defines the excess vapor density above which crystals transition to a morphologically complex (lower density) growth mode, we can estimate the critical supersaturation (scrit) for step nucleation during vapor growth. The derived values of scrit are consistent with previous measurements at temperatures above −20°C. No direct measurements of scrit are available for temperatures below −40°C; however, our derived values suggest some measurement-based estimates may be too high while estimates from molecular dynamics simulations may be too low.

Towards a more reliable forecast of ice supersaturation: concept of a one-moment ice-cloud scheme that avoids saturation adjustment

Abstract. A significant share of aviation's climate impact is due to persistent contrails. Thus, avoiding the creation of contrails that exert a warming impact is a crucial step in approaching the goal of sustainable air transportation. For this purpose, a reliable forecast of when and where persistent contrails are expected to form is needed (i.e. a reliable prediction of ice supersaturation). With such a forecast at hand, it would be possible to plan aircraft routes on which the formation of persistent contrails can be avoided. One problem on the way to these forecasts is the current systematic underestimation of the frequency and degree of ice supersaturation at cruise altitudes in numerical weather prediction due to the practice of “saturation adjustment”. In this common parameterisation, the air inside cirrus clouds is assumed to be exactly at ice saturation, while measurement studies have found cirrus clouds to be quite often out of equilibrium. In this study, we propose a new ice-cloud scheme that overcomes saturation adjustment by explicitly modelling the decay of the in-cloud humidity after nucleation, thereby allowing for both in-cloud super- and subsaturation. To achieve this, we introduce the in-cloud humidity as a new prognostic variable and derive the humidity distribution in newly generated cloud parts from a stochastic box model that divides a model grid box into a large number of air parcels and treats them individually. The new scheme is then tested against a parameterisation that uses saturation adjustment, where the stochastic box model serves as a benchmark. It is shown that saturation adjustment underestimates humidity, both shortly after nucleation, when the actual cloud is still highly supersaturated, and also in aged cirrus if the temperature keeps decreasing, as the actual cloud remains in a slightly supersaturated state in this case. The new parameterisation, on the other hand, closely follows the behaviour of the stochastic box model in any considered case. The improvement in comparison with saturation adjustment is largest if slow updraughts occur in relatively clean air in models with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We conclude that our parameterisation is promising but needs further testing in more realistic frameworks.

Ice Supersaturation Variability in Cirrus Clouds: Role of Vertical Wind Speeds and Deposition Coefficients

AbstractAircraft measurements reveal ice supersaturation statistics in cirrus (ISSs) with broad maxima around ice saturation and pronounced variance. In this study, processes shaping ISSs in midlatitude and tropical upper tropospheric conditions are systematically investigated. Water vapor deposition and sublimation of size‐resolved ice crystal populations are simulated in an air parcel framework. Mesoscale temperature fluctuations (MTFs) due to gravity waves force the temporal evolution of supersaturation. Various levels of background wave forcing and cirrus thickness are distinguished in stochastic ensemble simulations. Kinetic limitations to ice mass growth are brought about by supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients that represent efficient and inefficient growth modes as a function of ice crystal size. The simulations identify a wide range of deposition coefficients in cirrus, but most values stay above 0.01 such that kinetic limitations to water uptake remain moderate. Supersaturation quenching times are long, typically 0.5–2 hr. The wave forcing thus causes a remarkably large variability in ISSs and cirrus microphysical properties except in the thickest cirrus, producing ensemble‐mean ISSs in line with in‐situ measurements. ISS variance is controlled by MTFs and increases with decreasing cirrus integral radii. In comparison, the impact of ice crystal growth rates on ISSs is small. These results contribute to efforts directed at identifying and solving issues associated with ice‐supersaturated areas and non‐equilibrium cirrus physics in global models.

Re-evaluating cloud chamber constraints on depositional ice growth in cirrus clouds – Part 1: Model description and sensitivity tests

Abstract. Ice growth from vapor deposition is an important process for the evolution of cirrus clouds, but the physics of depositional ice growth at the low temperatures (<235 K) characteristic of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is not well understood. Surface attachment kinetics, generally parameterized as a deposition coefficient αD, control ice crystal habit and also may limit growth rates in certain cases, but significant discrepancies between experimental measurements have not been satisfactorily explained. Experiments on single ice crystals have previously indicated the deposition coefficient is a function of temperature and supersaturation, consistent with growth mechanisms controlled by the crystal's surface characteristics. Here we use observations from cloud chamber experiments in the Aerosol Interactions and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) aerosol and cloud chamber to evaluate surface kinetic models in realistic cirrus conditions. These experiments have rapidly changing temperature, pressure, and ice supersaturation such that depositional ice growth may evolve from diffusion limited to surface kinetics limited over the course of a single experiment. In Part 1, we describe the adaptation of a Lagrangian parcel model with the Diffusion Surface Kinetics Ice Crystal Evolution (DiSKICE) model (Zhang and Harrington, 2014) to the AIDA chamber experiments. We compare the observed ice water content and saturation ratios to that derived under varying assumptions for ice surface growth mechanisms for experiments simulating ice clouds between 180 and 235 K and pressures between 150 and 300 hPa. We found that both heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation experiments at higher temperatures (>205 K) could generally be modeled consistently with either a constant deposition coefficient or the DiSKICE model assuming growth on isometric crystals via abundant surface dislocations. Lower-temperature experiments showed more significant deviations from any depositional growth model, with different ice growth rates for heterogeneous and homogeneous nucleation experiments.

Effective Density Derived from Laboratory Measurements of the Vapor Growth Rates of Small Ice Crystals at −65° to −40°C

Abstract An electrodynamic levitation thermal-gradient diffusion chamber was used to grow 268 individual, small ice particles (initial radii of 8–26 μm) from the vapor, at temperatures ranging from −65° to −40°C, and supersaturations up to liquid saturation. Growth limited by attachment kinetics was frequently measured at low supersaturation, as shown in prior work. At high supersaturation, enhanced growth was measured, likely due to the development of branches and hollowed facets. The effects of branching and hollowing on particle growth are often treated with an effective density ρeff. We fit the measured time series with two different models to estimate size-dependent ρeff values: the first model decreases ρeff to an asymptotic deposition density ρdep, and the second models ρeff by a power law with exponent P. Both methods produce similar results, though the fits with ρdep typically have lower relative errors. The fit results do not correspond well with models of isometric or planar single-crystalline growth. While single-crystalline columnar crystals correspond to some of the highest growth rates, a newly constructed geometric model of budding rosette crystals produces the best match with the growth data. The relative frequency of occurrence of ρdep and P values show a clear dependence on ice supersaturation normalized to liquid saturation. We use these relative frequencies of ρdep and P to derive two supersaturation-dependent mass–size relationships suitable for cloud modeling applications.

Revisiting Diagrams of Ice Growth Environments

Abstract Ice habit diagrams published prior to 2009—and many since—do not accurately describe in situ observations of ice shapes as a function of temperature and moisture. Laboratory studies and analysis of field observations by Bailey and Hallett in a series of papers in 2002, 2004, and 2009 corrected several errors from earlier studies, but their work has not been widely disseminated. We present a new, simplified diagram based on Bailey and Hallett’s work that focuses on several ice growth forms arising from the underlying surface processes by which mass is added to a crystal: tabular, columnar, branched, side branched, two types of polycrystalline forms, and a multiple growth regime at low ice supersaturations. To aid interpretation for a variety of applications, versions of the ice growth diagram are presented in terms of relative humidity with respect to water as well as the traditional formats of relative humidity with respect to ice and vapor density excess. These diagrams are intended to be understandable and useful in classroom settings at the sophomore undergraduate level and above. The myriad shapes of pristine snow crystals can be described as the result of either a single growth form or a sequence of growth forms. Overlays of data from upper-air soundings on the ice growth diagrams aid interpretation of expected physical properties and processes in conditions of ice growth.

A Parameterization of Cirrus Cloud Formation: Revisiting Competing Ice Nucleation

AbstractThis study develops an advanced physically‐based parameterization of heterogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds that includes an updated parameterization of stochastic homogeneous freezing of supercooled solution droplets. Both components are formulated based on the same methodology and level of approximation, without numerical integration of the underlying ice supersaturation equation. The new scheme includes measured ice nucleation spectra describing deterministic ice activation from an arbitrary number of types of ice‐nucleating particles (INPs), tracks the competition for available water vapor between the different ice nucleation modes, and allows for new ice formation and growth within pre‐existing cirrus clouds. The computationally efficient scheme works with a minimal set of physical input parameters and predicts total nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) along with the maximum ice supersaturation attained during cirrus formation events. Aspects of its implementation into host models are discussed, including the provision of suitably parameterized vertical wind speeds. The parameterization is validated by comparisons to numerical simulations. First off‐line applications to mineral dust and aviation soot particles are presented, including ICNC ensemble statistics resulting from the coupling with statistics of updraft speed variability.

Contrail formation within cirrus: ICON-LEM simulations of the impact of cirrus cloud properties on contrail formation

Abstract. Contrail formation within natural cirrus introduces large perturbations in cirrus ice crystal number concentrations, leading to modifications in cirrus microphysical and optical properties. The number of contrail ice crystals formed in an aircraft plume depends on the atmospheric state as well as aircraft and fuel properties. Our aim is to study contrail formation within cirrus and, in particular, the impact of pre-existing cirrus on the contrail formation processes. We implement a parameterization for contrail ice nucleation and the survival of contrail ice crystals within the vortex phase within the high-resolution ICON-LEM at a horizontal resolution of 625 m over Germany and modify the parameterizations in order to consider the impact of the pre-existing cirrus. We then simulate contrail formation and analyze the change in ice nucleation and survival due to the presence of cirrus ice crystals. We have selected two different synoptic situations to sample a large range of cirrus cloud properties from those representative of average thick in situ formed cirrus and liquid origin cirrus that are connected to a frontal system down to very thin cirrus within a high-pressure system. We find that contrail formation within cirrus mostly leads to increases in cirrus ice crystal numbers by a few orders of magnitude. Pre-existing cirrus has a discernible impact on the contrail formation threshold temperature and on contrail ice crystal number concentrations only if the cirrus ice water content is high and ice supersaturation is low. The cirrus ice crystals sucked into and subsequently sublimated within the aircraft's engine and the ice crystals mixed into the aircraft plume experiencing sublimation and later deposition lead to an increase in the contrail formation threshold temperature most of the time. Often this increase is negligible, but in the above atmospheric conditions the increase in the contrail formation threshold can be large, reaching maximum values of 2 K. Consequently, significant increases in ice nucleation are very seldom, but in areas of high cirrus ice water content and ice crystal number concentrations, contrail ice nucleation rates can be significantly increased, in particular at lower flight levels. Cirrus ice crystals can also lead to a reduction in ice nucleation, but negative changes are significantly smaller and less common. After nucleation cirrus and contrail ice crystals compete for water vapor, while the combined contrail and cirrus ice water mass grows. Once the aircraft plume gets trapped within the wake vortices and descends the plume relative humidity decreases so that eventually both cirrus and contrail ice crystals sublimate. We find that the impact of cirrus ice crystals on the contrail ice crystal loss within the descending vortices is negligible. Only for nucleation rates several orders of magnitude lower than the soot number emission index can the impact be noticeable, but the relevance of this impact is limited.

The effect of ice supersaturation and thin cirrus on lapse rates in the upper troposphere

Abstract. In this paper, the effects of ice-supersaturated regions and thin, subvisual cirrus clouds on lapse rates are examined. For that, probability distribution and density functions of the lapse rate and the potential temperature gradients from 10 years of measurement data from the MOZAIC/IAGOS project and ERA5 reanalysis data were produced, and an analysis of an example case of an ice-supersaturated region with a large vertical extent is performed. For the study of the probability distribution and density functions, a distinction is made between ice-subsaturated and ice-supersaturated air masses (persistent contrails) and situations of particularly high ice supersaturation that allow the formation of optically thick and strongly warming contrails. The estimation of the lapse rates involves two adjacent standard pressure levels of the reanalysis surrounding MOZAIC's measurement/flight points. If the upper of these levels is in the stratosphere, the distribution function for subsaturated cases shows much lower lapse rates than those of supersaturated cases. If all levels are in the troposphere, the distributions become more similar, but the average lapse rates are still higher in supersaturated than in subsaturated cases, and the distributions peak at higher values and are narrower in ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) than elsewhere. This narrowing is particularly pronounced if there is substantial supersaturation. For the examination of an example case, ERA5 data and forecasts from ICON-EU (DWD) are compared. ERA5 data, in particular, show a large ice-supersaturated region below the tropopause, which was pushed up by uplifting air, while the data of ICON-EU indicate areas of saturation. The lapse rate in this ice-supersaturated region (ISSR), which is large, is associated with clouds and high relative humidity. Supersaturation and cloud formation result from uplifting of air layers. The temperature gradient within an uplifting layer steepens, for both dry and moist air. As soon as condensation or ice formation starts in the upper part of a lifting layer, the release of latent heat begins to decrease the lapse rate, but radiation starts to act in the opposite direction, keeping the lapse rate high. The highest lapse rates close to the stability limit can only be reached in potentially unstable situations.

Characteristics of Precipitation Particles and Microphysical Processes during the 11–12 January 2020 Ice Pellet Storm in the Montréal Area, Québec, Canada

Abstract Freezing rain and ice pellets are particularly difficult to forecast when solid precipitation is completely melted aloft. This study addresses this issue by investigating the processes that led to a long-duration ice pellet event in Montreal, Québec, Canada, on 11–12 January 2020. To do so, a benchmark model initialized with ERA5 data is used to show that solid precipitation was completely melted below the melting layer, which discards partial melting from the possible ice pellet formation processes. Macro photography of precipitation reveals that small columnar crystals (∼200 μm) and ice pellets occurred simultaneously for more than 10 h. The estimation of ice crystal number concentration using macro photographs and laser-optical disdrometer data suggests that all supercooled drops could have refrozen by contact freezing with ice crystals. Rimed ice pellets also indicate ice supersaturation in the subfreezing layer. Given these observations, the formation of ice pellets and ice crystals was probably promoted by secondary ice production and the horizontal advection of ice crystals below the melting layer, as we illustrate using a conceptual model. Overall, these findings demonstrate how ice nucleation processes at temperatures near 0°C can drastically change the precipitation phase and the impact of a storm. Significance Statement Ice pellets are generally formed when snow particles partially melt while falling through a warm layer aloft before completely refreezing in a cold layer closer to the surface. Ice pellets can also be formed when snow particles completely melt aloft, but freezing rain is often produced in such conditions. On 11–12 January 2020, ice pellets were produced during more than 10 h in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Macro photographs of the precipitation particles show that ice pellets occurred simultaneously with small ice crystals. Most of the ice pellets were produced while snow particles were completely melted aloft. The supercooled drops probably refroze due to collisions with the ice crystals that could have been advected by the northeasterly winds near the surface.

Meteorological Conditions That Promote Persistent Contrails

Climate-impacting contrails need ice (super-)saturation to persist longer than a few minutes. However, this simple criterion cannot be easily applied for the prediction of persistent contrails. The current weather forecast models, which lack humidity data for assimilation in the upper troposphere, have difficulties coping with the enormous variability and sharp gradients in the relative humidity field. Thus, ice supersaturation, which is an extremal state of relative humidity, is hard to forecast at a precise location and time to allow contrail-avoiding flight routing. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of using dynamical proxy variables for improved contrail prediction. This idea is guided by the fact that the probability of ice supersaturation differs in different dynamical regimes. Therefore, we determine probability distributions of temperature, water vapour concentration, vertical velocity, divergence, relative and potential vorticity, geopotential height, and lapse rate conditioned on three situations: (a) contrail persistence not possible; (b) contrail persistence possible; and (c) strongly warming persistent contrails possible. While the atmospheric variables are taken from reanalysis data, the conditions (a–c) are based on airborne measurement data and radiation quantities from the reanalysis. It turns out that the vorticity variables, and in particular geopotential and lapse rate, show quite distinct conditional probabilities, suggesting a possibility to base an improved forecast of persistent contrails not only on the traditional quantities of temperature and relative humidity, but on these dynamical proxies as well. Furthermore, we show the existence of long flight tracks with the formation of strongly warming contrails, which are probably embedded in larger ice-supersaturated regions with conditions that foster such contrails. For forecasting purposes, this is a beneficial property since the humidity forecast is easier on large, rather than small, spatial scales.

Studies on the Competition Between Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation in Cirrus Formation

AbstractCirrus ice crystals are produced heterogeneously on ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) and homogeneously in supercooled liquid solution droplets. They grow by uptake of water molecules from the ice‐supersaturated vapor. The precursor particles, characterized by disparate ice nucleation abilities and number concentrations, compete for available vapor during ice formation events. We investigate cirrus formation events systematically in different temperature and updraft regimes, and for different INP number concentrations and time‐independent nucleation efficiencies. We consider vertical air motion variability due to mesoscale gravity waves and effects of supersaturation‐dependent deposition coefficients for water molecules on ice surfaces. We analyze ice crystal properties to better understand the dynamics of competing nucleation processes. We study the reduction of ice crystal numbers produced by homogeneous freezing due to INPs in both, individual simulations assuming constant updraft speeds and in ensemble simulations based on a stochastic representation of vertical wind speed fluctuations. We simulate and interpret probability distributions of total nucleated ice crystal number concentrations, showing signatures of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. At typically observed, mean updraft speeds (≈15 cm s−1) competing nucleation should occur frequently, even at rather low INP number concentrations (<10 L−1). INPs increase cirrus occurrence and may alter cirrus microphysical properties without entirely suppressing homogeneous freezing events. We suggest to improve ice growth models, especially for low cirrus temperatures (<220 K) and low ice supersaturation (<0.3).

Multi-Case Analysis of Ice Particle Properties of Stratiform Clouds Using In Situ Aircraft Observations in Hebei, China

This study investigates the size distribution, the mean diameter, and the concentration of ice particles within stratiform clouds by using in situ observations from 29 flights in Hebei, China. Furthermore, it examines the empirical fitting of ice particle size distributions at different temperatures using Gamma and exponential functions. Without considering the first three bins of ice particles, the mean diameter of ice particles (size range 100–1550 µm) is found to increase with temperature from −15 to −9 °C but decrease with temperature from −9 to 0 °C. By considering the first three bins of ice particles using the empirical Gamma fitting relationship found in this study, the mean diameter of ice particles (size range 25–1550 µm) shows a similar variation trend with temperature, while the turning point changes from −9 to −10 °C. The ice particle number concentration increases from 13.37 to 50.23 L−1 with an average of 31.27 L−1 when temperature decreases from 0 to −9 °C. Differently, the ice concentration decreases from 50.23 to about 22.4 L−1 when temperature decreases from −9 to −12 °C. The largest mean diameter of ice particles at temperatures around −9 and −10 °C is most likely associated with the maximum difference of ice and water supersaturation at that temperature, making the ice particles grow the fastest. These findings provide valuable information for future physical parameterization development of ice crystals within stratiform clouds.

Aerosol–cloud interactions: the representation of heterogeneous ice activation in cloud models

Abstract. The homogeneous nucleation of ice in supercooled liquid-water clouds is characterized by time-dependent freezing rates. By contrast, water phase transitions induced heterogeneously by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are described by time-independent ice-active fractions depending on ice supersaturation (s). Laboratory studies report ice-active particle number fractions (AFs) that are cumulative in s. Cloud models budget INP and ice crystal numbers to conserve total particle number during water phase transitions. Here, we show that ice formation from INPs with time-independent nucleation behavior is overpredicted when models budget particle numbers and at the same time derive ice crystal numbers from s-cumulative AFs. This causes a bias towards heterogeneous ice formation in situations where INPs compete with homogeneous droplet freezing during cloud formation. We resolve this issue by introducing differential AFs, thereby moving us one step closer to more robust simulations of aerosol–cloud interactions.