Ice Sheet Topography Research Articles

Responses of Westerly Jets over Asia versus North America in the Last Glacial Maximum and Their Attributions

Abstract By using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) coupled to a slab ocean model, the total responses of westerly jets (WJ) over Asia and North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as well as the relative influences of different individual LGM forcing on the changes in WJ, are evaluated in this study. The results show that the seasonal variation of Northern Hemisphere WJ in LGM is characterized by distinct regional discrepancies. The WJ is intensified and shifts southward in North America, while it generally weakens and slightly displaces northward in central Asia. Over Japan, the WJ is enhanced and moves southward in summer but is attenuated and shifts northward in winter. The change of WJ has a close relationship with the midtroposphere temperature anomalies which result from the different external forcings. In summer, the ice sheet albedo plays a leading role in wind fields at mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere by causing a zonal wave–like response of temperature. In winter, the ice sheet topography dominates the wind fields across North America to North Atlantic by inducing a northwest–southeast-oriented tripole temperature response. The effects of orbital parameters and greenhouse gases largely contribute to the alteration of upper wind fields over Asia and North Pacific by causing a dipole response of temperature.

A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years

Abstract. Driven primarily by variations in the earth's axis wobble, tilt, and orbit eccentricity, our planet experienced massive glacial/interglacial reorganizations of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Pleistocene (2.58 million years ago (Ma)–11.7 thousand years ago (ka)). Even after decades of research, the underlying climate response mechanisms to these astronomical forcings have not been fully understood. To further quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2, ∼3.75∘ horizontal resolution), which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years (3 Myr). In addition to the astronomical insolation changes, CESM1.2 is forced by estimates of CO2 and ice-sheet topography which were obtained from a simulation previously conducted with the CLIMBER-2 earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our 3 Ma simulation consists of 42 transient interglacial/glacial simulation chunks, which were partly run in parallel to save computing time. The chunks were subsequently merged, accounting for spin-up and overlap effects to yield a quasi-continuous trajectory. The computer model data were compared against a plethora of paleo-proxy data and large-scale climate reconstructions. For the period from the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ∼1 Ma) to the late Pleistocene we find good agreement between simulated and reconstructed temperatures in terms of phase and amplitude (−5.7 ∘C temperature difference between Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene). For the earlier part (3–1 Ma), differences in orbital-scale variability occur between model simulation and the reconstructions, indicating potential biases in the applied CO2 forcing. Our model-proxy data comparison also extends to the westerlies, which show unexpectedly large variance on precessional timescales, and hydroclimate variables in major monsoon regions. Eccentricity-modulated precessional variability is also responsible for the simulated changes in the amplitude and flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We further identify two major modes of planetary energy transport, which played a crucial role in Pleistocene climate variability: the first obliquity and CO2-driven mode is linked to changes in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient; the second mode regulates the interhemispheric heat imbalance in unison with the eccentricity-modulated precession cycle. During the MPT, a pronounced qualitative shift occurs in the second mode of planetary energy transport: the post-MPT eccentricity-paced variability synchronizes with the CO2 forced signal. This synchronized feature is coherent with changes in global atmospheric and ocean circulations, which might contribute to an intensification of glacial cycle feedbacks and amplitudes. Comparison of this paleo-simulation with greenhouse warming simulations reveals that for an RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, the projected global mean surface temperature changes over the next 7 decades would be comparable to the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial range; but the anthropogenic warming rate will exceed any previous ones by a factor of ∼100.

The impact of ICE‐6G ice sheet topography in the oceanic carbonate system

AbstractDuring the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 21 ka BP) the presence of large ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) caused significant changes in the ocean–atmosphere interaction. Remarkable changes are noticed in NH both topography and atmospheric CO2 levels. This paper investigates the impact of the most recent paleotopography (ICE6G) in the Earth's climate and the oceanic carbonate system, based on a series of experiments conducted with the oceanic‐atmosphere‐vegetation‐ice‐carbon model, UVic ESCM. Results indicate enhanced cooling in northern North America in the ICE6G compared to the ICE4G simulation due to the lapse rate effect. The decrease of −24°C in the surface temperature in the ICE6G relative to the present day (PD) led to a modification of the atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic and North Pacific regions. Positive and negative anomalies vary widely for the E–P (evaporation–precipitation) flux pattern, but colder and drier atmosphere leads to a reduction in precipitation in the ICE6G experiment. Changes in wind stress between ICE6G and PD induce low temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. These features are related changes of Ekman's transport and evaporative cooling resulting in positive anomalies of SST. Thus, changes in sea surface temperature and salinity (SST, SSS), and E–P flux led to modifications in the oceanic carbonate system, resulting in an overall increase of total alkalinity and a reduction in the concentrations of total carbon dioxide (TCO2) in the ICE6G with respect to the PD values. This is a consequence of the low concentration of glacial CO2 and increment in concentrations. The total alkalinity (TA) and TCO2 do not show a similar response to the SST and SSS, in the sense that larger departures from the PD are found in the Pacific equatorial region, which are affected by changes in water dilution as a result of precipitation and evaporation processes.

The role of ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times

Abstract. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet changes. Bridging the scale gap by using a chain of global and regional climate models, we perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4). In winter, we find wetter conditions in the southern part of the Alps during LGM compared to present day, to which dynamical processes, i.e. changes in the wind speed and direction, contribute substantially. During summer, we find the expected drier conditions in most of the Alpine region during LGM, as thermodynamics suggests drier conditions under lower temperatures. The MIS4 climate shows enhanced winter precipitation compared to the LGM, which is explained by its warmer climate compared to the LGM – thus, again explained by thermodynamics. The sensitivity simulations of the northern hemispheric ice-sheet changes show that an increase of the ice-sheet thickness leads to a significant intensification of glacial Alpine hydro-climate conditions, which is mainly explained by dynamical processes. Changing only the Fennoscandian ice sheet is less influential on the Alpine precipitation, whereas modifications in the local Alpine ice-sheet topography significantly alter the Alpine precipitation; in particular, we find a reduction of summer precipitation at the southern face of the Alps when lowering the Alpine ice sheet. The findings demonstrate that the northern hemispheric and local ice-sheet topography play an important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and thus permits a better understanding of the precipitation patterns in the complex Alpine terrain at glacial times.

UAVs for Science in Antarctica

Remote sensing is a very powerful tool that has been used to identify, map and monitor Antarctic features and processes for nearly one century. Satellite remote sensing plays the main role for about the last five decades, as it is the only way to provide multitemporal views at continental scale. But the emergence of small consumer-grade unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the past two decades has paved the way for data in unprecedented detail. This has been also verified by an increasing noticeable interest in Antarctica by the incorporation of UAVs in the field activities in diversified research topics. This paper presents a comprehensive review about the use of UAVs in scientific activities in Antarctica. It is based on the analysis of 190 scientific publications published in peer-reviewed journals and proceedings of conferences which are organised into six main application topics: Terrestrial, Ice and Snow, Fauna, Technology, Atmosphere and Others. The analysis encompasses a detailed overview of the activities, identifying advantages and difficulties, also evaluating future possibilities and challenges for expanding the use of UAV in the field activities. The relevance of using UAVs to support numerous and diverse scientific activities in Antarctica becomes very clear after analysing this set of scientific publications, as it is revolutionising the remote acquisition of new data with much higher detail, from inaccessible or difficult to access regions, in faster and cheaper ways. Many of the advances can be seen in the terrestrial areas (detailed 3D mapping; vegetation mapping, discrimination and health assessment; periglacial forms characterisation), ice and snow (more detailed topography, depth and features of ice-sheets, glaciers and sea-ice), fauna (counting penguins, seals and flying birds and detailed morphometrics) and in atmosphere studies (more detailed meteorological measurements and air-surface couplings). This review has also shown that despite the low environmental impact of UAV-based surveys, the increasing number of applications and use, may lead to impacts in the most sensitive Antarctic ecosystems. Hence, we call for an internationally coordinated effort to for planning and sharing UAV data in Antarctica, which would reduce environmental impacts, while extending research outcomes.

Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier

Abstract. Determining the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is critical for understanding and narrowing the large existing uncertainties in century-scale global mean sea-level-rise (SLR) projections. One of the most significant glaciers and ice streams in Antarctica, Thwaites Glacier, is at risk of destabilization and, if destabilized, has the potential to be the largest regional-scale contributor of SLR on Earth. This is because Thwaites Glacier is vulnerable to the marine ice-sheet instability as its grounding line is significantly influenced by ocean-driven basal melting rates, and its bedrock topography retrogrades into kilometer-deep troughs. In this study, we investigate how bedrock topography features influence the grounding line migration beneath Thwaites Glacier when extreme ocean-driven basal melt rates are applied. Specifically, we design experiments using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to quantify the SLR projection uncertainty due to reported errors in the current bedrock topography maps that are often used by ice-sheet models. We find that spread in model estimates of sea-level-rise contribution from Thwaites Glacier due to the reported bedrock topography error could be as large as 21.9 cm after 200 years of extreme ocean warming. Next, we perturb the bedrock topography beneath Thwaites Glacier using wavelet decomposition techniques to introduce realistic noise (within error). We explore the model space with multiple realizations of noise to quantify what spatial and vertical resolutions in bedrock topography are required to minimize the uncertainty in our 200-year experiment. We conclude that at least a 2 km spatial and 8 m vertical resolution would independently constrain possible SLR to ±2 cm over 200 years, fulfilling requirements outlined by the 2017 Decadal Survey for Earth Science. Lastly, we perform an ensemble of simulations to determine in which regions our model of Thwaites Glacier is most sensitive to perturbations in bedrock topography. Our results suggest that the retreat of the grounding line is most sensitive to bedrock topography in proximity to the grounding line's initial position. Additionally, we find that the location and amplitude of the bedrock perturbation is more significant than its sharpness and shape. Overall, these findings inform and benchmark observational requirements for future missions that will measure ice-sheet bedrock topography, not only in the case of Thwaites Glacier but for Antarctica on the continental scale.

Success Stories of Satellite Radar Altimeter Applications

Abstract For nearly three decades, satellite nadir altimeters have provided essential information to understand primarily ocean but also inland water dynamics. A variety of parameters can be inferred via altimeter measurements, including sea surface height, sea surface wind speeds, significant wave heights, and topography of land, sea ice, and ice sheets. Taking advantage of these parameters with the long record of altimeter data spanning multiple decades has allowed a diverse range of societal applications. As the constellation of altimeter satellites grows, the proven value of the missions to a diverse user community can now be demonstrated by highlighting a selection of verifiable success stories. In this paper, we review selected altimeter success stories that incorporate altimetry data, alone or in conjunction with numerical models or other Earth observations, to solve a key societal problem. First, we define the problem or the key challenge of each use case, and then we articulate the uptake of the successful altimeter-based solution. Our review revealed steady progress by scientific and stakeholder communities in bridging the gap between data availability and their actual uptake to address a variety of applications. Highlighting these altimeter-based success stories can serve to further promote the widespread adoption of future satellite missions such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission scheduled for launch in 2022. Knowledge of the breadth of current utility of altimeter observations can help the scientific community to demonstrate the value in continuing radar altimeter and similar missions, particularly those with expanded capabilities, such as SWOT.

Air-sea coupling shapes North American hydroclimate response to ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum

The Western U.S. is vulnerable to hydrological stress, and insights from past climate periods are helpful for providing historical benchmarks for future climate projections. Myriad evidence from coupled models and paleoclimatic proxies suggests a major reorganization of west coast hydroclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼17–25 ka), such that the Southwest U.S. was wetter than modern day and the Pacific Northwest was drier. Yet the fundamental mechanisms underlying these hydroclimatic shifts remain unclear. Here, we employ a suite of targeted model simulations to probe the influence of LGM Northern Hemisphere ice sheets on west coast atmospheric dynamics. Whereas previous modeling studies have suggested that the southward shift of LGM west coast precipitation was driven only by the mechanical steering of atmospheric circulation by elevated ice sheet topography, we find this to be an artifact of earlier simulations that neglected realistic air-sea interaction. Instead, our simulations indicate that ice sheet albedo induced a pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperatures, reinforced by ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, that shifted the large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as the latitudinal distribution of west coast precipitation southward during the LGM. Crucially, we find that atmosphere-ocean feedbacks that sustained this ice sheet albedo-induced temperature pattern in the LGM could drive similar hydroclimatic changes today.

Ice Sheet Topography from a New CryoSat-2 SARIn Processing Chain, and Assessment by Comparison to ICESat-2 over Antarctica

In this study, we present a new level-2 processing chain dedicated to the CryoSat-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometric (SARIn) measurements acquired over ice sheets. Compared to the ESA ground segment processor, it includes revised methods to detect waveform leading edges and perform retracking at the Point of Closest Approach (POCA). CryoSat-2 SARIn mode surface height measurements retrieved from the newly developed processing chain are compared to ICESat-2 surface height measurements extracted from the ATL06 product. About 250,000 space–time nearly coincident observations are identified and examined over the Antarctic ice sheet, and over a one-year period. On average, the median elevation bias between both missions is about −18 cm, with CryoSat-2 underestimating the surface topography compared to ICESat-2. The Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) between CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 elevation estimates is 46.5 cm. These performances were compared to those obtained with CryoSat-2 SARIn mode elevations from the ESA PDGS level-2 products (ICE Baseline-D processor). The MAD between CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 elevation estimates is significantly reduced with the new processing developed, by about 42%. The improvement is more substantial over areas closer to the coast, where the topography is more complex and surface slope increases. In terms of perspectives, the impacts of surface roughness and volume scattering on the SARIn mode waveforms have to be further investigated. This is crucial to understand geographical variations of the elevation bias between CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 and continue enhancing the SARIn mode level-2 processing.

Description and Demonstration of the Coupled Community Earth System Model v2 - Community Ice Sheet Model v2 (CESM2-CISM2).

Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea‐level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy‐balance‐based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions.

ICESat‐2 Constraint Analysis and Monitoring System (CAMS)

AbstractThe Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite‐2 was launched on 15 September 2018 with mission goals of collecting surface elevation data that can precisely measure ice sheet topography, cloud and aerosol heights, land topography, as well as vegetation height for ecosystems studies. The Constraint Analysis and Monitoring System (CAMS) was implemented as an ICESat‐2 ground system element to perform Mission Planning and Spacecraft Safety Monitoring. Mission Planning requires CAMS to serve as an interface between the Project Science Office, the Instrument Support Facility and the Mission Operation Control Center. By ingesting inputs received from all three groups, the CAMS builds an optimized and deconflicted timeline of science and instrument activities. Based upon the timeline of activities, the CAMS utilizes a sophisticated set of algorithms to model and predict the location and pointing of the spacecraft instrument relative to the Earth and Sun. From the predicted position and pointing, the CAMS provides precise monitoring of instrument health, and performs space asset laser conjunction detection. Furthermore, the CAMS determines alternative plans to prevent detected health constraint violations or mitigate potential laser conjunctions. This paper provides an overview of the CAMS and presents the operational performance of planning science and instrument activities, the monitoring of instrument constraints for health and safety, and the space asset laser conjunction screening and mitigation process.

The transient impact of the African monsoon on Plio-Pleistocene Mediterranean sediments

Abstract. Over the Plio-Pleistocene interval a strong linkage exists between northern African climate changes and the supply of dust over the surrounding oceans and continental runoff towards the Mediterranean Sea. Both these signatures in the sedimentary record are determined by orbital cycles influencing glacial variability on the one hand and northern African monsoon intensity on the other hand. In this paper, we use the intermediate-complexity model CLIMBER-2 to simulate African climate during the Plio-Pleistocene between 3.2 and 2.3 million years ago (Ma) and compare our simulations with existing and new climate reconstructions. The CLIMBER-2 model is externally forced with atmospheric CO2 concentrations, ice sheet topography, and orbital variations, all of which strongly influence climate during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Our simulations indicate that the records of northern Africa climate oscillate in phase with climatic precession. For the Earth's obliquity cycle, the time lag between the 41 000-year component in insolation forcing and the climatic response increased after inception of Northern Hemisphere (NH) glaciation around 2.8 Ma. To test the outcome of our simulations, we have put emphasis on the comparison between the simulated runoff of grid boxes encompassing the Sahara desert and the Sahel region and the sedimentary records of marine sediment cores from ODP Site 659 (Atlantic Ocean) and ODP Site 967 (Mediterranean). In this study we will show for the first time an extended Ti∕Al record of Site 967 down to 3.2 Ma. This record strongly correlates with runoff in the Sahara and Sahel regions, whereas correlation with the dust record of Site 659 is moderate and slightly improves after NH ice sheet inception. We investigated the transient variability of the individual and combined contributions of the Sahel and Sahara regions and found significant transient behaviour overlapping the inception of NH ice sheets (2.8 Ma) and the Plio-Pleistocene transition (2.6 Ma). Prior to 2.8 Ma, a larger contribution from the Sahara region is required to explain the variability of Mediterranean dust input. After this transition, we found that a more equal contribution of the two regions is required, representing an increased influence of Sahel runoff and wet periods.

GrSMBMIP: intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. Observations and models agree that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has decreased since the end of the 1990s due to an increase in meltwater runoff and that this trend will accelerate in the future. However, large uncertainties remain, partly due to different approaches for modelling the GrIS SMB, which have to weigh physical complexity or low computing time, different spatial and temporal resolutions, different forcing fields, and different ice sheet topographies and extents, which collectively make an inter-comparison difficult. Our GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) aims to refine these uncertainties by intercomparing 13 models of four types which were forced with the same ERA-Interim reanalysis forcing fields, except for two global models. We interpolate all modelled SMB fields onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the period 1980–2012 and score the outputs against (1) SMB estimates from a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge; (2) ice cores, snow pits and in situ SMB observations; and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting model deficiencies in an accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes related to surface melt and runoff. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of the same order as RCMs compared with observations and therefore remain useful tools for long-term simulations or coupling with ice sheet models. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present-day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models and that this ensemble estimate can be used as a reference for current climate when carrying out future model developments. However, a higher density of in situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 m w.e. yr−1 due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation.

Simulating the Early Holocene demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with BISICLES (public trunk revision 3298)

Abstract. Simulating the demise of the Laurentide Ice Sheet covering Hudson Bay in the Early Holocene (10–7 ka) is important for understanding the role of accelerated changes in ice sheet topography and melt in the 8.2 ka event, a century long cooling of the Northern Hemisphere by several degrees. Freshwater released from the ice sheet through a surface mass balance instability (known as the saddle collapse) has been suggested as a major forcing for the 8.2 ka event, but the temporal evolution of this pulse has not been constrained. Dynamical ice loss and marine interactions could have significantly accelerated the ice sheet demise, but simulating such processes requires computationally expensive models that are difficult to configure and are often impractical for simulating past ice sheets. Here, we developed an ice sheet model setup for studying the Laurentide Ice Sheet's Hudson Bay saddle collapse and the associated meltwater pulse in unprecedented detail using the BISICLES ice sheet model, an efficient marine ice sheet model of the latest generation which is capable of refinement to kilometre-scale resolutions and higher-order ice flow physics. The setup draws on previous efforts to model the deglaciation of the North American Ice Sheet for initialising the ice sheet temperature, recent ice sheet reconstructions for developing the topography of the region and ice sheet, and output from a general circulation model for a representation of the climatic forcing. The modelled deglaciation is in agreement with the reconstructed extent of the ice sheet, and the associated meltwater pulse has realistic timing. Furthermore, the peak magnitude of the modelled meltwater equivalent (0.07–0.13 Sv) is compatible with geological estimates of freshwater discharge through the Hudson Strait. The results demonstrate that while improved representations of the glacial dynamics and marine interactions are key for correctly simulating the pattern of Early Holocene ice sheet retreat, surface mass balance introduces by far the most uncertainty. The new model configuration presented here provides future opportunities to quantify the range of plausible amplitudes and durations of a Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse meltwater pulse and its role in forcing the 8.2 ka event.

Evolution of the meridional shift of the subtropical and subpolar westerly jet over the Southern Hemisphere during the past 21,000 years

Deciphering the variations in the subtropical westerly jet (STJ) and the subpolar westerly jet (SPJ) over the Southern Hemisphere in Earth’s history will help us to better understand how the westerlies may respond to various external forcings in the future. Using Simulation of Transient Climate Evolution over the past 21,000 years simulations, we demonstrate that the STJ migrated equatorward in the Last Glacial Maximum relative to the present, which followed by abrupt poleward, equatorward, and poleward shifts during the Heinrich Stadial I, Antarctic Cold Reversal, and Younger Dryas, respectively. These large-amplitude fluctuations are controlled by changes in meltwater fluxes and polar ice-sheet topography. During the Holocene, the STJ shows no obvious long-term trend, due to the offsetting effect between increased orbital insolation in austral summer and decreased Antarctic ice-sheet topography. The meridional shift of the SPJ shows an in-phase change with the STJ during the past 21 kyr. In terms of the dynamic mechanisms, the meridional shift of the STJ and SPJ is induced by changes in the meridional temperature gradient and the maximum eddy growth rate, respectively; and is also linked to changes in the mean meridional circulations (that is, the Hadley and Ferrel cells). The modeled meridional shift of the southern westerlies is supported by the results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ and is consistent with several reconstructions, but it is difficult to constrain robustly by geological evidence as the reconstructed westerlies vary across sites and proxies. Nevertheless, our study provides a possible scenario for the evolution of the southern westerlies during the past 21 kyr and identifies the dominant forcing and the associated mechanisms, which may advance our knowledge on the future behavior of the southern westerlies.

Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change

AbstractWe provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here.

Dynamic Effect of Last Glacial Maximum Ice Sheet Topography on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractThe effect of ice sheet topography on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the Last Glacial Maximum is studied using CCSM3 in a hierarchy of model configurations. It is found that receding ice sheets result in a weakened EASM, with the reduced ice sheet thickness playing a major role. The lower ice sheet topography weakens the EASM through shifting the position of the midlatitude jet, and through altering Northern Hemisphere stationary waves. In the jet shifting mechanism, the lowering of ice sheets shifts the westerly jet northward and decreases the westerly jet over the subtropics in summer, which reduces the advection of dry enthalpy and in turn precipitation over the EASM region. In the stationary wave mechanism, the lowering of ice sheets induces an anomalous stationary wave train along the westerly waveguide that propagates into the EASM region, generating an equivalent-barotropic low response; this leads to reduced lower-tropospheric southerlies, which in turn reduces the dry enthalpy advection into East Asia, and hence the EASM precipitation.

How Different Analysis and Interpolation Methods Affect the Accuracy of Ice Surface Elevation Changes Inferred from Satellite Altimetry

Satellite altimetry has been widely used to determine surface elevation changes in polar ice sheets. The original height measurements are irregularly distributed in space and time. Gridded surface elevation changes are commonly derived by repeat altimetry analysis (RAA) and subsequent spatial interpolation of height change estimates. This article assesses how methodological choices related to those two steps affect the accuracy of surface elevation changes, and how well this accuracy is represented by formal uncertainties. In a simulation environment resembling CryoSat-2 measurements acquired over a region in northeast Greenland between December 2010 and January 2014, different local topography modeling approaches and different cell sizes for RAA, and four interpolation approaches are tested. Among the simulated cases, the choice of either favorable or unfavorable RAA affects the accuracy of results by about a factor of 6, and the different accuracy levels are propagated into the results of interpolation. For RAA, correcting local topography by an external digital elevation model (DEM) is best, if a very precise DEM is available, which is not always the case. Yet the best DEM-independent local topography correction (nine-parameter model within a 3,000 m diameter cell) is comparable to the use of a perfect DEM, which exactly represents the ice sheet topography, on the same cell size. Interpolation by heterogeneous measurement-error-filtered kriging is significantly more accurate (on the order of 50% error reduction) than interpolation methods, which do not account for heterogeneous errors.

Modeling and Compensation of the Penetration Bias in InSAR DEMs of Ice Sheets at Different Frequencies

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is able to provide important information for the characterization of the surface topography of glaciers and ice sheets. However, due to the inherent penetration of microwaves into dry snow, firn, and ice, InSAR elevation models are affected by a penetration bias. The fact that this bias depends on the snow and ice conditions as well as on the interferometric acquisition parameters complicates its assessment and makes it also relevant for measuring topographic changes. Recent studies indicated the potential for model-based compensation of this penetration bias. This article follows this approach and investigates the performance of two subsurface volume models for this task. Single-channel and polarimetric approaches are discussed for random and oriented volume scenarios. The model performance is assessed on two test sites in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet using fully polarimetric airborne X-, C-, L-, and P-band InSAR data. The results indicate that simple models can partially compensate the penetration bias and provide more accurate topographic information than the interferometric phase center measurements alone.

The Mechanisms that Determine the Response of the Northern Hemisphere’s Stationary Waves to North American Ice Sheets

Abstract Stationary waves describe the persistent meanders in the west–east flow of the extratropical atmosphere. Here, changes in stationary waves caused by ice sheets over North America are examined and the underlying mechanisms are discussed. Three experiment sets are presented showing the stationary wave response to the albedo or topography of ice sheets, as well as the albedo and topography in combination, as the forcings evolve from 21 to 6 ka. It is found that although the wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude, changes due to an ice sheet are equally large in summer and winter. In summer, ice sheet albedo is the dominant cause of changes: topography alone gives an opposite response to realistic ice sheets including albedo and topography. In winter, over the Atlantic, stationary wave changes are due to the ice sheet topography; over the Pacific, they are due to the persistence of summertime changes, mediated by changes in the ocean circulation. It is found that the response of stationary waves over the last deglaciation echoes the above conclusions, with no evidence of abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation. The response linearly weakens as the albedo and height decrease from 21 to 10 ka. As potential applications, the seasonal cycle over Greenland is shown to be sensitive primarily to changes in summer climate caused by the stationary waves; the annual mean circulation over the North Pacific is found to result from summertime, albedo-forced, stationary wave effects persisting throughout the year because of ocean dynamics.