Ice Jams Research Articles

ODRA2D – TWO-DIMENSIONAL CASCADE FLOOD MODELLING FOR THE ODRA RIVER – DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATIONS

Aim of the study: Development of new hydrodynamic numerical tools for simulations of the flow in the Odra River valley for the flood hazard assessment and management Material and methods: Use of the MIKE21 software for models building. Geospatial (ArcGis) topographical data processing and analysis for model inputs and outputs. Extensive use of remote sensing data (digital terrain model and orthophoto maps) combined with traditional data sources. Results and conclusions: A cascade of twenty five MIKE21 models was developed to cover a nearly 600 km long section of the Odra River. The models were used in different studies, including: the assessment of flood hazards with regards to various scenarios, the assessment of flooding due to ice jamming and breaks in embankments, the evaluation of the effectiveness of flood mitigating works within the complex Hydrosystem of the city of Wrocław, the verification of historic flood data and stage-discharge relations, and also the verification of design discharges.

Numerical Analyses of Ice Jamming in Jacket Platform Conductor Array in Bohai Sea

Numerical Analyses of Ice Jamming in Jacket Platform Conductor Array in Bohai Sea

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ВЫСШИХ ЗАТОРНЫХ УРОВНЕЙ НА РЕКЕ СУХОНА У ГОРОДА ВЕЛИКИЙ УСТЮГ

The paper presents the analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the time series of the ice jam peak water level of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug, taking into account the predictors selected by the multiple regression technique. A methodology based on the multiple regression that uses the results of modeling by the method developed by V.A. Buzin as a separate predictor is proposed. This approach has improved the forecast skill and forecast results. The observed and predicted values are significantly correlated.

Forecasting Ice Jam Peak Levels of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug

Forecasting Ice Jam Peak Levels of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug

Identifying ice‐jam flooding events through the application of dendrogeomorphological methods

AbstractIn this research, we explore whether a dendrogeomorphological assessment of tree scarring can accurately summarize past ice‐jam flooding events occurring at a given reach of a river. A sample site was chosen with a history of ice‐jam flooding located in close proximity to a river gauge station. Samples were collected along a 200‐m stretch of riverbank to capture the variation in elevations and possible different ice‐jam flooding events. Disk samples were collected from trees with visual scarring evidence that indicated they had endured a past ice‐jam event. Tree cores from an adjacent stand were collected to create a master chronology for each of the sampled species. Tree disks and cores were analyzed under a microscope using a Velmex stage system, then visually and statistically crossdated using the program COFECHA. Based on the last year of tree growth, years of individual injury events were established. The years of injury event dates were compared against the years of highest instantaneous maximum water elevations from gauged river data. The two data sets correlated, as the years with the highest recorded injury event dates were also the years of highest instantaneous water level elevations. The most common years of injury event dates were directly reflected in the top 5 years of the highest river instantaneous water level elevations. In addition, the year of 2020 had the highest water elevations in the past 27 years, which was again reflected in the dendrogeomorphological data as the injury event year of 2020 was recorded on over 90% of the sampled tree disks. The correlation found between the gauged river data and the dendrogeomorphological data strongly suggests that past ice‐jam flooding event dates can accurately be determined through the analysis of trees in riverbank stretches that have been impacted by ice jams. The relationship of the gauged river data to the dendrogeomorphological data will therefore allow researchers to determine ice‐jam site histories in remote areas where no gauged data exist. The site histories can provide information such as the years or heights that past ice‐jam flooding occurred, which could then be used in ice‐jam flooding hazard assessments.

How can Changes in the Human‐Flood Distance Mitigate Flood Fatalities and Displacements?

AbstractComprehending the correlation between alterations in human‐flood distance and flood fatalities (as well as displacements) is pivotal for formulating effective human adaptive strategies in response to floods. However, this relationship remains inadequately explored in existing global analyses. To address this gap, we examine 910 flood events occurring from 2000 to 2018, resulting in significant numbers of fatalities and displacements. We find that in 53% of countries, humans tend to distance from floods, particularly in the Middle East. Such distancing greatly mitigates flood fatalities and displacements. Simultaneously, in areas with increased flood protection level (FPL), humans are less likely to move away from floods. Furthermore, FPL and human‐flood distance have decreased in regions affected by ice jam‐ and hurricane‐induced floods from 2000 to 2018. Notably, regions with human‐flood distance slightly below the average for a given flood type experience more severe flood fatalities.

Effects of regulation on open‐water flows in the lower Peace River, Canada, and implications for the recharge of Peace‐Athabasca Delta basins

AbstractDownstream impacts of large hydropower dams are often neglected or underestimated, especially for areas situated at long distances from a dam. Naturalization of the flow hydrograph is an important step in assessing hydro‐ecological and socio‐economic impacts of regulation. Using reservoir inflows, a recently developed, lagged‐flow naturalization method is applied to the lower portion of the regulated Peace River, which forms the northern boundary of the Peace‐Athabasca Delta (PAD). The PAD is a Ramsar wetland of international importance that depends on overland flooding for recharge of its high‐elevation or “perched” basins. Such flooding can be caused by ice jams during the spring breakup of the ice cover or by exceptionally high runoff during open‐water flow conditions. Herein, the focus is on the latter type of event and the resulting recharge of basins located within the Peace sector of the PAD. For the period 1972–2017, regulation has reduced open‐water flow peaks by ~4100 m3/s on average, while limiting the possibility of overbank flooding from the Peace River during the summer. Consistent with earlier findings on spring breakup flows, naturalized open‐water peaks do not exhibit a temporal trend. Recharge of non‐perched basins can also occur with moderately high flows that cause no overland flooding but generate flow reversals in Peace River tributaries. In turn, this mechanism can deliver river water to various basins either directly or via connecting channels. Our results show that flow‐based variables that index the hydrological sustenance of non‐perched basins have been significantly reduced by regulation.

Aerial photogrammetry to characterise and numerically model an ice jam in Southern Quebec

Abstract Collecting data on the dynamic breakup of a river's ice cover is a notoriously difficult task. However, such data are necessary to reconstruct the events leading to the formation of ice jams and calibrate numerical ice jam models. Photogrammetry using images from remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) is a cost-effective and rapid technique to produce large-scale orthomosaics and digital elevation maps (DEMs) of an ice jam. Herein, we apply RPA photogrammetry to document an ice jam that formed on a river in southern Quebec in the winter of 2022. Composite orthomosaics of the 2-km ice jam provided evidence of overbanking flow, hinge cracks near the banks and lengthy longitudinal stress cracks in the ice jam caused by sagging as the flow abated. DEMs helped identify zones where the ice rubble was grounded to the bed, thus allowing ice jam thickness estimates to be made in these locations. The datasets were then used to calibrate a one-dimensional numerical model of the ice jam. The model will be used in subsequent work to assess the risk of ice interacting with the superstructure of a low-level bridge in the reach and assess the likelihood of ice jam flooding of nearby residences.

Dam removal effect on the lower St. Regis River ice-jam floods

The Hogansburg Dam in Akwesasne, NY, on the lower St. Regis River, a tributary of the St. Lawrence River, was decommissioned and removed in 2016. The dam removal restored over 893 river km of migratory fish access. However, ice jams occurred on the lower St. Regis River in winter before and after the dam removal, which caused flooding in the St. Regis Mohawk Tribe Reservation. This study reviewed the historical ice-jam conditions in the lower St. Regis River and the effect of dam removal. A two-dimensional river-ice model, DynaRICE, capable of simulating the dynamic ice transport and jamming processes, was used to evaluate pre- and post-dam-removal conditions of the Hogansburg Dam on the ice-jam flooding in the St. Regis Mohawk Tribe Reservation. The study showed that the dam removal effect decreases as the breakup discharge increases. A potential mitigation scheme for reducing ice-jam floods in the Hogansburg area using ice booms was examined and recommended.

Emergency intervention modes for ice jam events in large-scale water diversion projects

Abstract The formation of ice jams is sudden, and they will cause abnormal water level fluctuations in water diversion projects, affecting the water supply and even causing severe flood disasters. Based on the characteristics of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, this paper uses the numerical simulation method to establish an emergency intervention effect simulation model for ice jam events. The hydraulic response characteristics of the project under gate group scheduling and taking different emergency measures are analyzed with the water level deviation and stabilization time consumption of the pool as indicators. Moreover, this paper proposes an emergency intervention mode for ice jam events. The results show that using the gate group scheduling after ice jam events will cause a sharp rise in the upstream water level of the pool where the ice jams are located. Also, compared with other emergency measures, the electric heating ice melting measure has less influence on water level, and the de-icing effect is better. Finally, the emergency intervention mode can significantly reduce the maximum water level deviation and shorten the time required to stabilize the water level.

A comprehensive method to estimate flood levels of rivers subject to ice jams: A case study of the Chaudière River, Québec, Canada

Abstract The main difference between an open-water (regular) flood and an ice jam flood is that it is normally the whole river length that is overtopped whereas an ice jam flood is localized to where the jam is located. Comparatively, the regular flood analysis can use the value of the extreme discharge as the main input parameter for a long river section, an ice jam flood needs to account for the probability of jams of various lengths and intensities occurring at specific locations under significantly variable discharges while having several mechanical ice parameters to be considered. Through the case study of the Chaudière River, the methodology presented in this paper demonstrates how to statistically characterize four significant inputs (jam location, jam length, jam properties and river discharge during jam event) into the widely used numerical river water model (HEC-RAS) and how Monte–Carlo simulations are generated to estimate probable ice jam floods along a whole river reach. The purpose of this article is to propose a robust methodology through a case study and asses the sensitivity that historical and mechanical parameters have as to why specific locations along the reach have higher 1:100 AEP ice-induced water levels as to 1:100 AEP open-water levels.

Field monitoring of river ice processes in the vicinity of ice control structures in the province of Quebec, Canada

Over the past decades, a variety of ice control structures (ICSs) have been designed and built, but to date, there has been no systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of these structures. To achieve this objective, first an understanding of the interaction between different ice processes and the ICSs must be established. For this purpose, a total of four ICSs located in the province of Québec were monitored during the 2021–2022 winter. The results showed that the ice jam holding time could vary from 1.5 to 68.5 h. The release of the jam was mechanically driven when the ratio of release to initiation Froude number was higher than one and was thermally driven when this ratio was lower than one, and the water temperature increased between initiation and release. Also, as the ratio of the total pier spacing to upstream river width increased, the holding time decreased.

In-situ ice strength distribution of anchor ice dams

Ice runs and ice jams can cause significant damage to infrastructure and other human interests. Accurate modelling and prediction of these events rely on data and assumptions about river ice properties. This paper seeks to address the lack of data on ice strength distributions and associated properties in small, steep rivers and to obtain a better understanding of those. To this end, an ice data collection campaign was carried out in the Sokna river in central Norway during the 2020–2021 winter field season. The following types of data were collected for anchor ice dams and level ice sections: Borehole Jack (BHJ) in-situ ice strength, ice thickness, ice density, thin section imagery and associated depth measurements. A total of 27 ice cores and 68 thin sections were successfully collected and processed. Furthermore, a survey was carried out recording GPS coordinates of anchor ice dams in the river. Meteorological and hydrological data was also collated, and large boulder location data was obtained through the analysis of aerial photography. Ice strength distributions and trends on how ice strength varies in small, steep rivers were obtained from these data. A binomial generalized linear model for predicting ice dam locations was developed using field measurements and aerial photography data. This model describes how river width, slope and to a lesser degree large boulder density affect ice dam location. Sinuosity was shown to have no effect on ice dam location. This work highlights the significant variation in microstructure and large-scale structure of ice in small, steep rivers.

UAS remote sensing applications to abrupt cold region hazards

Unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) are an established technique for collecting data on cold region phenomenon at high spatial and temporal resolutions. While many studies have focused on remote sensing applications for monitoring long term changes in cold regions, the role of UAS for detection, monitoring, and response to rapid changes and direct exposures resulting from abrupt hazards in cold regions is in its early days. This review discusses recent applications of UAS remote sensing platforms and sensors, with a focus on observation techniques rather than post-processing approaches, for abrupt, cold region hazards including permafrost collapse and event-based thaw, flooding, snow avalanches, winter storms, erosion, and ice jams. The pilot efforts highlighted in this review demonstrate the potential capacity for UAS remote sensing to complement existing data acquisition techniques for cold region hazards. In many cases, UASs were used alongside other remote sensing techniques (e.g., satellite, airborne, terrestrial) and in situ sampling to supplement existing data or to collect additional types of data not included in existing datasets (e.g., thermal, meteorological). While the majority of UAS applications involved creation of digital elevation models or digital surface models using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, this review describes other applications of UAS observations that help to assess risks, identify impacts, and enhance decision making. As the frequency and intensity of abrupt cold region hazards changes, it will become increasingly important to document and understand these changes to support scientific advances and hazard management. The decreasing cost and increasing accessibility of UAS technologies will create more opportunities to leverage these techniques to address current research gaps. Overcoming challenges related to implementation of new technologies, modifying operational restrictions, bridging gaps between data types and resolutions, and creating data tailored to risk communication and damage assessments will increase the potential for UAS applications to improve the understanding of risks and to reduce those risks associated with abrupt cold region hazards. In the future, cold region applications can benefit from the advances made by these early adopters who have identified exciting new avenues for advancing hazard research via innovative use of both emerging and existing sensors.

Creation and Non-Destructive Control of Electric Heating Elements of the Aircraft Icing Prevention System

One of the priority directions of searching for new materials and testing methods in aviation is the development of conductive composition and manufacturing of heating elements (HE) for the electrothermal anti-icing system of aircraft and their nondestructive control. Using of polymer materials with nanotubes, as well as graphenebased heaters, have low weight, fast and uniform heating, and efficient energy consumption. Conducted research using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to optimize the composition of carbon fillers (graphene and carbon nanotubes) in composite materials for creating electrically conductive anti-icing elements of aircraft structures. One of the most important instrumental methods of technical diagnostics of potentially dangerous objects is remote infrared (IR) thermal imaging diagnostics based on the registration of the temperature field. The principle of thermal diagnostics is based on the comparison of the thermal fields of the reference and the monitored object. Temperature anomalies are indicators of defects, and the value of temperature signals and their behavior over time makes it possible to give quantitative estimates of the object's parameters. Namely, with the help of thermal imagers, non-destructive thermal control is carried out not only of propeller screws. panels of rockets and airplanes, but can also be offered to assess the quality of HE. They detect defects. cracks, structural changes, water infiltration sites and ice jams.

Risk Evaluation of Ice Flood Disaster in the Upper Heilongjiang River Based on Catastrophe Theory

The ice flood phenomenon frequently occurs in frigid locations of high latitude and high altitude, which triggers ice dam or ice jam flooding thus endangering personal and property safety. Hence, a scientific risk evaluation with enough consideration of each factor is a basic and necessary requirement for preventing ice flood disaster risks. This study establishes a risk evaluation system for ice flood disasters based on the catastrophe theory and utilizes the Pearson correlation coefficient to screen underlying indicators to evaluate the risk of ice flood in the upper Heilongjiang River region. Considering the correlation between different indicators, a hierarchical cluster analysis is invoked to simplify the indicator set and to select typical years. The results of the evaluation system indicate that the catastrophe membership values in the Mohe, Tahe, and Huma regions from 2000 to 2020 ranged from 0.86 to 0.93. Based on the membership values and the actual disaster situations, a four-level classification of risk ratings is conducted. The comparison between the results obtained from the catastrophe theory evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method reveals similar risk levels, which verifies the effectiveness and practicality of the catastrophe theory applied to the ice flood risk evaluation and presents a novel method for the study of ice floods.

Three-dimensional fully-Lagrangian DEM-SPH modeling of river ice interaction with control structures

Ice control structures (ICSs) play a vital role in preventing ice jams and safeguarding communities by either stabilizing ice cover or relocating jams upstream. Understanding and modeling the interaction between ice floes and these structures is crucial for assessing their effectiveness and optimizing their designs. However, simulating these complex multi-physics systems poses challenges for numerical techniques. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a fully-Lagrangian mesh-free continuum-discrete model based on the Smoothed Particles Hydrodynamics (SPH) method and Discrete Element Method (DEM) for three-dimensional (3D) simulation of ice interactions with control structures. To validate and parameterize the numerical model, we conduct two sets of experiments using real and artificial ice materials: (1) dam-break wave-ice-structure interaction and (2) ice-ICS interaction in an open channel. By comparing numerical and experimental results we demonstrate the capability and relative accuracy of our model. Our findings indicate that real ice generally exhibits faster jam evolution and ice passage through the ICS compared to artificial ice. Moreover, we identify the Froude number and ice material type as important factors influencing jam formation, evolution, and ICS effectiveness. Through sensitivity analysis of material properties, we highlight the significant impact of friction and restitution coefficients.

A numerical model study on Grasse River ice-control structures

Ice jams in the Grasse River have caused the erosion of capping material designed to prevent the resurfacing of the bed sediment in the polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated area. Two in-stream ice-control structures are proposed to avoid the jam-induced erosion of the capping material. These two ice-control options are a pier-type ice-control structure and a reconstruction of a small hydropower dam upstream of the capping site. A numerical model study using the DynaRICE model is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed design. Flow and ice conditions corresponding to the 100-year return period of ice jam events obtained from analyzing historical breakup ice jam data are used in the evaluation. The results showed that these ice-control structures could reduce the ice discharge downstream and the size of the ice jam at the capping site to prevent the erosion and scour of the PCB-contaminated bed.

A comprehensive field investigation of the dynamic break-up processes on the Chaudière River, Quebec, Canada

Abstract The Chaudière River in Quebec, Canada, is well known for its frequent ice jam flooding events. As part of a larger watershed research program, an extensive field campaign has been carried out during the 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 winter seasons to quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics of the break-up processes along the Chaudière River. The results showed that mid-winter ice jams have formed in the Intermediate Chaudière and persisted until spring break-up. Spring break-ups were initiated in the Upper Chaudière, and then, almost simultaneously, in the Intermediate and Lower Chaudière reaches. The break-up in the Intermediate Chaudière usually lasts longer than the rest of the river since the slope is much milder, and the occurrence of mid-winter ice jams has been seen to delay the ice clearing. A reach-by-reach characterization of the cumulative degree day of thawing and discharge thresholds for the onset of break-up has been identified. During the field campaign, 51 ice jams were documented together with their location, length, date of formation, and the morphological feature triggering jam formation. Break-up patterns, hydrometeorological thresholds of ice mobilization, and ice jam sites identified in this study can serve as a basis for the implementation of an early warning system.

Analysis of three ice melting methods in supercooled water ice-making system

In supercooled water ice-making system, ice jam threatens the stability of the system. In order to make the sub-cooler melt the ice on the pipe wall in time when the ice jam is about to happen, three methods of ice melting are put forward. The energy analysis, exergy analysis, economic analysis and carbon emission analysis were carried out for the three ice-melting methods. The results showed that the heat loss was zero, the energy utilization efficiency was the highest, and the carbon dioxide emission was the lowest when the ice-melting method of heat storage was used, running cost minimum, of each ice-melting only 0.103 yuan. The exergy loss of reverse method is 18.93 kJ/kg, but the reverse method has the highest melting temperature and the shortest melting time. The bypass method has a heat loss of 106.11 kJ/kg. The cost of melting ice and carbon dioxide emission is higher than the other two methods, but the initial investment is the lowest and the system is the most compact.