Hydro-meteorological Disasters Research Articles

Differential mortality patterns from hydro-meteorological disasters: Evidence from cause-of-death data by age and sex

This paper evaluates the heterogeneous impact of hydro-meteorological disasters on populations along the dimensions of age, sex, and human development. The analysis is based on previously untapped cause-of-death data over the period 1995– 2011 that were obtained from the WHO mortality database, and were based on the civil registration records of 63 countries/territories. Using these data, we evaluate patterns of mortality related to meteorological disasters in the spirit of model life tables.We observe that mortality rates from hydro-meteorological disasters for men are consistently higher than for women across all age groups, and that the differential by sex is larger for adults than for young children or the elderly. Furthermore, the sex differential in mortality becomes smaller with improvements in human development. Comparing our disaster fatalities with those recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), we find that the number of deaths from hydro-meteorological disasters was underestimated in the WHO database, especially in the case of highimpact events. In the paper we discuss issues of data quality and data harmonisation for the study of the differential demographic impact of natural disasters. One of our main goals is to stimulate an interdisciplinary debate in this area.

Risk perception of the people in the flood prone Khyber Pukhthunkhwa province of Pakistan

The hydro-meteorological disasters around the globe are on the rise. Floods are also a recurrent phenomenon in Pakistan, but the floods of 2010 were most severe in terms of financial loss and area affected. Researchers expect that in the coming decades, the floods would be more frequent and would cause more damages than the past, if proper measures for preparedness and mitigation are not taken. The objective of this research is to analyse the perception of the people living with the flood risk in the Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa province of Pakistan. The field survey was conducted from May 2014 to November 2014. Both primary and secondary data were collected for this study. The secondary data were collected from the journals and government reports and the primary data were collected through group discussions and questionnaire survey. The group discussions were performed with the government officials, farmers and community members. The questionnaire survey was prepared for households. A total of 180 households from the selected sample sites were randomly selected for survey. Multivariate statistics were used to find the risk perception of the people based on their socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The study revealed that the flood risk perception greatly varies between the government officials and community members. Results also showed that risk perception is affected by the ownership of the house, education, distance from the water source and past experience with the floods. The study recommends policies and programs for creating awareness and preparedness for flood risk perception among the people.

Identifying hydro-meteorological events from precipitation extremes indices and other sources over northern Namibia, Cuvelai Basin.

Worldwide, more than 40% of all natural hazards and about half of all deaths are the result of flood disasters. In northern Namibia flood disasters have increased dramatically over the past half-century, along with associated economic losses and fatalities. There is a growing concern to identify these extreme precipitation events that result in many hydro-meteorological disasters. This study presents an up to date and broad analysis of the trends of hydro-meteorological events using extreme daily precipitation indices, daily precipitation data from the Grootfontein rainfall station (1917–present), regionally averaged climatologies from the gauged gridded Climate Research Unit (CRU) product, archived disasters by global disaster databases, published disaster events in literature as well as events listed by Mendelsohn, Jarvis and Robertson (2013) for the data-sparse Cuvelai river basin (CRB). The listed events that have many missing data gaps were used to reference and validate results obtained from other sources in this study. A suite of ten climate change extreme precipitation indices derived from daily precipitation data (Grootfontein rainfall station), were calculated and analysed. The results in this study highlighted years that had major hydro-meteorological events during periods where no data are available. Furthermore, the results underlined decrease in both the annual precipitation as well as the annual total wet days of precipitation, whilst it found increases in the longest annual dry spell indicating more extreme dry seasons. These findings can help to improve flood risk management policies by providing timely information on historic hydro-meteorological hazard events that are essential for early warning and forecasting.

Hydro-meteorological Disasters: Causes, Effects and Mitigation Measures with Special Reference to Early Warning with Data Driven Approaches of Forecasting

In this paper, an attempt is made to highlight the causes, effects and mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological disasters with special reference to data driven approaches of forecasting. Recognizing the fact that the frequency of occurrence of water related disasters as well as the consequent damages including human casualties are on the increase in recent years, mitigation measures have become a high priority issue in all vulnerable countries. Structural measures taken by developed countries cannot be applied to developing countries because of the high capital investment. Non- structural measures such as early warning systems are more appealing to developing countries. One of the most important components of an early warning system is a mathematical model that links the input variables to the corresponding output variable. Several approaches of model formulation are discussed and some examples of the more recent fuzzy logic approach to flood forecasting is presented.

English

Among the many challenges facing Kenya today is the menace of natural disasters, which have become a perennial problem affecting the country. Disasters cause suffering to communities and economic losses to the country. Projections indicate that Natural Disasters will not only increase in frequency but will also be more severe. Disasters are caused by a myriad of both natural and human factors. Ninety percent (90%) of all natural disasters worldwide are caused by weather related natural hazards, with different regions of the world being more vulnerable to certain types of natural disasters than others. Africa, and more specifically Kenya, is more vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters, among the most prevalent of which are drought, floods and landslides. The study sought to investigate the strategies being taken in disaster risk management at policy level, with mounting evidence that the problem of natural disasters is set to worsen. It also investigated how the management of a cross-cutting service like disaster risk management can be carried out in an effective and efficient manner. Thirdly, the study examined the measures that are necessary to mitigate natural disasters, in order to ensure public safety. The research was carried out in the form of a survey of the public sector institutions responsible for Natural Disaster Risk Management at policy formulation and implementation levels. It established that different institutions implemented their disaster risk management strategies independently with minimal coordination among them. The net effect is a reduction in the overall efficiency and effectiveness of disaster risk management as a function. The study concludes that there is need to reorganize the natural disaster risk management structure in the country, in order to enable the responsible institutions deliver their mandate in a more efficient manner that satisfies all their stakeholders. In this respect, the research gives recommendations on ways to improve the disaster Risk Management function.

Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in Asia-Pacific countries

The frequency of intense natural disasters (defined here as events triggered by hazards of nature and causing at least 100 deaths or affecting the survival needs of at least 1,000 people) has been on the rise over the past 40 years. This is especially true for Asia and the Pacific, where such disasters have long been relatively frequent. A crucial question is the extent to which the frequency of such disasters is related to increases in the number of people exposed to hazards, changes in people’s vulnerability to hazards, and temperature and precipitation anomalies. This paper addresses this question with an econometric analysis of disaster risk determination for countries of Asia and the Pacific during 1971–2010. The objective is to determine the role (if any) of greater likelihood of climate-related natural hazards, alongside changes in exposure of people to the hazards and their greater vulnerability, in explaining the annual frequency of climate-related disasters. Results indicate that hydrometeorological disasters are strongly associated with rising population exposure as well as precipitation anomalies, while climatological disasters are strongly associated with changing temperatures. Taken together with the evidence from literature that it is “very likely” that the rising incidence of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere is altering the climate system, the findings suggest a connection between the frequency of intense natural disasters observed in the region and man-made climate change.

Confronting Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific

Abstract The frequency of intense natural disasters has been on the rise worldwide over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen on average, while both temperatures and precipitation have become more variable and more extreme. Their impacts are clearly visible in Asia and the Pacific region, which has seen some of the most damaging natural disasters. Recent scientific evidence points to the link between rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation that underlie floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves. Rising population exposure, greater population vulnerability, and increasing climate-related hazards are three main disaster risk factors behind the increased frequency of intense natural disasters. A study underlying this paper finds an association between more frequent climatological disasters (relating to droughts and heat waves) and rising temperatures; and between hydrometeorological disasters (relating to floods and storms) and people locating in harm’s way and precipitation anomalies. These findings underpin the necessity of greater prevention of natural disasters, and of integrating climate adaptation and mitigation in reducing disaster risks. With no let-up in the increasing costs of disasters to lives and livelihood, homes and infrastructure - such preventive measures must be part of policy and planning.

Process for integrating local and indigenous knowledge with science for hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in coastal and small island communities

The important role that local knowledge and practices can play in reducing risk and improving disaster preparedness is now acknowledged by disaster risk reduction specialists, especially since the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. However, they have yet to be commonly used by communities, scientists, practitioners and policy-makers. We believe that local and indigenous knowledge needs to be integrated with science before it can be used in policies, education, and actions related to disaster risk reduction and climate change. This paper presents a process for integrating local and indigenous knowledge related to hydro-meteorological hazards and climate change with science, developed through a project implemented among coastal and small island communities in Indonesia, the Philippines and Timor-Leste. The process involves observation, documentation, validation, and categorization of local and indigenous knowledge, which can then be selected for integration with science. This process is unique in that it allows communities to (1) identify knowledge that can be integrated with science, which could then be further disseminated for use by scientists, practitioners and policy-makers, and (2) safeguard and valorize those that cannot be scientifically explained. By introducing a process that can be used in other communities and countries, we hope to promote the use of local and indigenous knowledge to enable communities to increase their resilience against the impacts of climate change and disasters.

USING MOBILE DISASTER RESPONSE SYSTEM IN BRIDGE MANAGEMENT

Over the years, various hydro-meteorological disasters have impacted many countries and civilians, thus decreasing the losses caused by these disasters has become important for disaster management. While bridges often are essential to connect the affected disaster areas, this study focuses on bridge management associated with typhoons and rain-storms. Recently, although numerous information technology-based applications are available, three problems (i.e. asynchronous information records, unsteady information transmission, and inaccessible information analysis) still influence responses on disaster sites. Therefore, this study integrated several mobile information techniques to propose a mobile disaster response system. The applied mobile GPS- and GIS-based data reports simplify information generation, AR-based assistance enhances information representation, and mobile 3D graphics accelerates information processes. Based on the tests, this system not only improved the recognized problems but also strengthened the cooperation between construction engineers and workers and disaster managers. Overall, this study is a useful reference for similar applications in bridge management and disaster management.

Understanding Extreme Climatic Events for Economic Development in Kenya

Kenya is an agri-based economy that heavily relies on rainfall performance. Unfortunately, changes in rainfall patterns have threatened the agricultural sector since it is largely rain-fed. The frequent occurrence and increased severity of climatic extremes, particularly droughts and floods, have led to slow economic development in the affected areas. However, the impacts on the economy vary from one hydrometeorological disaster to the other depending on their characteristics. From the case studies of Laikipia and Bunyala sub- counties in Kenya, the study established an increasing trend in both the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. Prolonged and severe flood and drought events had adverse impacts on economic development through (a) decrease in agricultural production, (b) poor prices for livestock and agricultural produce and (c) destruction of the immediate environment which in turn exacerbate the impacts. An inverse relationship between economic development and the magnitude of the disaster was established. The consequence have been increased poverty levels in the areas due to slow economic development.

The Economics of Hydro-Meteorological Disasters: Approaching the Estimation of the Total Costs

Hydro-meteorological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Efficient risk reduction policies require accurate assessment approaches, with careful consideration of costs, beyond direct tangible costs, which are commonly used in practice. Faced with possible risk reduction scenarios, limited financial resources require an improvement in the quality of cost estimation, thereby contributing to an efficient allocation of resources. This paper focuses on the concept of total costs of hydro-meteorological disasters, based on direct and indirect as well as tangible and intangible cost categories. These categories are defined and explained, supported by a comprehensive review of economic valuation methods. Based on this information, practice relevant suggestions are made concerning the most appropriate methods for different cases in terms of scale, availability of data and of technical resources. Our survey also provides critical insights to drawbacks of flood risk estimation, which need to be addressed and carefully dealt with in any future research in this area.

Reducing vulnerability to hydro-meteorological extremes in Africa. A qualitative assessment of national climate disaster management policies: Accounting for heterogeneity

In Africa, hydro-meteorological disasters (HMDs) have hit with increasing frequency and magnitude in recent years, with detrimental impacts on local livelihoods.African countries display a patchwork of national policies and institutional frameworks to address these rising HMDs.This paper examines the heterogeneity that exists within Africa′s institutional arrangements for climate-related disaster risk management, and introduces a three-partite policy classification that ranks each country as one of three disaster management policy types: the ‘Unprepared Firefighters′ (whose response to disasters is late, delayed and ineffective), the ‘Prepared Firefighters′ (for the most part effective disaster responders) and the ‘Disaster Averters′ (who experienced a paradigm shift and moved focus away from the hazard itself towards a reduction of the underlying risk factors that cause disasters). Through extensive data mining, interviews and qualitative country assessments, we map where African countries lie on this spectrum of effective climate-related disaster risk management.We find that African countries lay at different levels on the spectrum of effective disaster risk management. Across Africa, countries display differential progress in achieving the Hyogo Framework for Action goals and great variation and heterogeneity exists from country to country, one that calls for a concomitant heterogeneity in aid programs and initiatives meant to support comprehensive disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (DRR–CCA) in Africa.In closing, this paper suggests ways to support African countries′ efforts towards effective disaster risk management and planning. It offers a qualitative method to continually assess developing countries′ progress in achieving the Hyogo Framework for Action goals, one that straddles top-down country self-reporting and bottom-up civil society assessment.

A Decision Support System to Deal with Contemporary Issues of Climate Change Induced Vulnerability and Human Security in Malaysia

Environmental displacement has become a contemporary global concern due to the increasing intensity of climate change effects on peoples around the world. In recent times, this issue has become a socio-political problem due to the increasing rate of displacement within and outside of a country. Therefore, environmental security has emerged as a new concept and growing issue within the domain of human security. This development has become a political issue, due to socio-economic and cross border involvement as well as problems that have emerged within countries. Also, remarkably little attention has been given to analyze, monitor, evaluate and predict changes that are involved in the causes and consequences of climate change induced vulnerability and human security. Similarly, detailed studies on the causes due to such contemporary issues are lacking, globally. For this paper, it is intends to identify causes, consequences and projections of environmental degradation, and the vulnerability of human livelihood caused by climatic and hydro-meteorological disasters in Malaysia. Therefore, this paper discusses issues to do with flood-related vulnerability both in rural and urban areas, and its impact on human security in Malaysia. It also outlines the potential scientific tools that may be applied to predict, evaluate and plan to overcome the problem. The prime objective is to identify and to develop a new paradigm integrating tools of socio-economic, cultural and scientific aspects. It is assuming that, this effort would be able to put forward a theme to integrate scientists, social scientists and policy makers to work together to solve such issues.

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

Background: Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity.Methods: Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects.Results: Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades.Conclusions: There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protecthuman.

Human response to hydro-meteorological disasters: A case study of the 2010 flash floods in Pakistan

Pakistan is one of the most natural disaster-prone countries in the world and during July-August 2010 the worst ever flood in its history occurred. It may take months if not years for the people to recover from the devastating impact. Natural disasters often result in great losses, both in terms of materials and people’s lives. Vulnerability to natural disasters combined with socio-economic vulnerability of the people pose a great challenge to the government machinery. Disasters are exacerbated where there is inadequate government support for emergency situations. These situations are complicated because the breakdown of the government structure makes assistance or intervention difficult. This type of emergency is usually associated with the problems of displaced people during times of civil conflict or with people in need caught in areas of conflict. The actual disaster results in substantial damage to the population in terms of loss of life and property. This direct result can be termed the ‘first disaster’. Another wave of damage triggered by a chain of cause-and-effect events relating to the first disaster results in indirect damage to people remote from the original disaster. For example, the people cannot repay their loans, resulting in losses to money lenders. Such events can also result in higher incidences of problems relating to health (heart attacks, strokes), emotional responses (suicides) and crime (homicides). This is called the ‘second disaster’ and can be in greater magnitude than the ‘first disaster’. Appropriate rehabilitation and care of the victims in first disaster can break the chain of events leading to the second disaster. This paper summarizes the important and new developments in disaster situations, particularly for the higher flood risk zones, in an endeavour to mitigate the impact of the ‘second disaster’. Key words: Disaster, flash floods, hydro-meteorology, Pakistan, strategies.

Impacts of climatic disasters in coastal Bangladesh: why does private adaptive capacity differ?

This paper quantitatively assesses the influences of various demographic and socio-economic factors, past adaptive behavioral factors, access to weather/climate information, and spatial/locational factors on coastal populations’ perceived adaptive capacity against major impacts of hydro-meteorological disasters on their livelihood. A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh were randomly interviewed between January and April 2009. Respondents rated their perceived adaptive capacity against 25 anticipated impacts of sea-level rise (SLR)-induced events on their livelihood. By employing the principal component analysis (PCA), perceived adaptive capacity was grouped into five major categories. Then, an adaptive capacity index for each of five major impacts, namely, “infrastructure damage and disrupted mobility,” “food and nutritional insecurity,” “low earning and higher cost of maintenance,” “loss of employment in offshore activities,” and “crisis of potable water and public health risk,” was prepared. How adaptive capacity against each of these major five categories of impacts differs due to the influence of various factors was assessed by employing the multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) technique. The MANOVAs show that age, sex, level of education, type of occupation, farmland holdings, past adaptive behavior against rainfall, salinity intrusion, freshwater crises, use of radio for weather information, and the distance of the homestead from the shoreline have varying levels of influence on respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity against each of the five major categories of impacts. Others factors have moderate to limited influences. The policy implication is that specific programs, rather than a generic one-size fits all program, must be initiated for enhancement of adaptive capacity against specific impacts.

After the Rain: Rainfall Variability, Hydro-Meteorological Disasters, and Social Conflict in Africa

This paper examines the relationship between rainfall, water, and socio-political unrest in Africa. In particular, we are interested in how deviations from normal rainfall patterns, and extreme events such as flooding and drought, affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, we use a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict in the past 20 years - the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) - we examine the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. Our results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. We find that rainfall is correlated with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall - particularly dry and wet years - are associated with all types of political conflict (violent and nonviolent, government-targeted and non/government-targeted), though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant rather than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and violence.

On the Pilot Agriculture Insurance Program in Zhejiang Province

Abstract Zhejiang Province of China suffers heavy economic loss in agriculture due to frequent disastrous events. In 2006, the provincial and local governments in Zhejiang Province initiated a pilot agriculture insurance program with the touching-stones-to-cross-the-river philosophy. The practical strategy was successful in the past several years, whilst the determination of regional insurance rates was lack of sound risk assessment and validation. In this study, the hazard types, premium structure and premium rate are analyzed with more than 18,000 records of claim data of 2008. Detailed crop risk mapping with insurance data as validation will be helpful to the adjustment of insurance rate in the future. It was found that natural disasters, especially hydro-meteorological disasters were the main causes of agricultural loss in Zhejiang. Farmers in the developed coastal regions of Zhejiang were more willing to buy crop insurance and their insurance loss was higher because of more exposed to tropical cyclones and rainstorms.

Katrina Cataclysm

This study explores the extent to which people's prior experience of a natural disaster influenced subsequent behavior concerning the threats of a hydrometeorological disaster and if duration of residency in a disaster-prone landscape affects the extent of preparedness for an impending disaster. Mixed methods research strategies involving survey, field observation, and participant observations at several locations including rescue and evacuation centers in New Orleans, Louisiana, Austin, Texas, and Lawrenceville, Georgia, were used, during the immediate impact phase, emergency shelter phase, and postimpact and recovery phase of Katrina catastrophe. For the survey, a sample of 598 subjects completed a 15-page, 54-item questionnaire addressing various aspects of the Katrina flood in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area. The qualitative aspect consists of field observations of the event, interviews, and direct comments by the victims dispersed across the South. In the regression analysis performed, prior experience was found to be less important than friends' and family members' influence in determining evacuation behavior. However, duration of residency and prior experience were found to be slightly significant in predicting the odds of evacuation.

Syndromes of sustainability of development for assessing the vulnerability of coupled human–environmental systems. The case of hydrometeorological disasters in Central America and the Caribbean

Syndrome analysis seeks to capture socio-ecological dynamics of interaction by addressing clusters of symptoms rather than isolated variables. This paper identifies the main symptoms of vulnerability to hydrometeorological disasters in Central America and the Caribbean by building on the results of 14 postdisaster assessments. A syndrome representation for this region is proposed, including 13 symptoms and their causal interrelations. These symptoms are manifested in the spheres of biology, hydrology, soil, population, economy, social organization, and knowledge. The linkages of this syndrome representation to other syndromes, its degree of generality across places, and its causal loops are analyzed and discussed. Three vicious circles increasing vulnerability to hydrometeorological disasters in the region are identified. Two of them point to the importance of breaking urbanization cycles marked by the absence of effective land-use planning which lead to the occupation of hazardous areas by poor people. The third causal loop goes far beyond the urban context and establishes ecosystem degradation and conversion as its main driving force. This latter vicious circle supports the notion that vulnerability should be understood in the context of human–environmental interactions. Overall, the paper illustrates how syndrome analysis delivers integrated, and relatively generalizable, assessments of vulnerability.