Hunting Pressure Research Articles

Reduced hornbill abundance associated with low seed arrival and altered recruitment in a hunted and logged tropical forest.

Logging and hunting are two key direct threats to the survival of wildlife in the tropics, and also disrupt important ecosystem processes. We investigated the impacts of these two factors on the different stages of the seed dispersal cycle, including abundance of plants and their dispersers and dispersal of seeds and recruitment, in a tropical forest in north-east India. We focused on hornbills, which are important seed dispersers in these forests, and their food tree species. We compared abundances of hornbill food tree species in a site with high logging and hunting pressures (heavily disturbed) with a site that had no logging and relatively low levels of hunting (less disturbed) to understand logging impacts on hornbill food tree abundance. We compared hornbill abundances across these two sites. We, then, compared the scatter-dispersed seed arrival of five large-seeded tree species and the recruitment of four of those species. Abundances of hornbill food trees that are preferentially targeted by logging were two times higher in the less disturbed site as compared to the heavily disturbed site while that of hornbills was 22 times higher. The arrival of scatter-dispersed seeds was seven times higher in the less disturbed site. Abundances of recruits of two tree species were significantly higher in the less disturbed site. For another species, abundances of younger recruits were significantly lower while that of older recruits were higher in the heavily disturbed site. Our findings suggest that logging reduces food plant abundance for an important frugivore-seed disperser group, while hunting diminishes disperser abundances, with an associated reduction in seed arrival and altered recruitment of animal-dispersed tree species in the disturbed site. Based on our results, we present a conceptual model depicting the relationships and pathways between vertebrate-dispersed trees, their dispersers, and the impacts of hunting and logging on these pathways.

Roe deer at risk: teasing apart habitat selection and landscape constraints in risk exposure at multiple scales

Non‐consumptive effects of predators result from the cost of responses to perceived risk. Prey modulate risk exposure through flexible habitat selection at multiple scales which, in interaction with landscape constraints, determines their use of risky habitats. Identifying the relative contributions of landscape constraints and habitat selection to risk exposure is a critical first step towards a mechanistic understanding of non‐consumptive effects.Here, we provide an integrative multi‐scale study of roe deer spatial responses to variable hunting pressure along a landscape gradient of open habitats and dispersed refuges. Between low‐risk and high‐risk periods, we investigated shifts in 1) home‐range location, 2) probability of using risky habitats (between‐habitat scale) and 3) distance to the nearest refuge (within‐habitat scale). For 2) and 3), we disentangled the contributions of landscape constraints and habitat selection to risky habitat use.We found that when risk was high, roe deer did not shift their home‐range, but generally decreased their use of risky habitats, and sometimes reduced their distance to cover (particularly older animals). There was a functional response in between‐habitat selection, with animals living in more open landscapes responding more than those living in landscapes with more refuges. However, individuals living in more open landscapes avoided open risky habitat less. Finally, we found that among‐individual variation in risk exposure was generally, but not always, minimized by habitat selection across gradients of landscape constraints.To our knowledge, this is the first study simultaneously documenting prey responses to risk at the within‐habitat, between‐habitat and home‐range scales. Our results support the view that between‐habitat selection acts at a higher hierarchical level than within‐habitat selection, and provide a framework for disentangling the contributions of habitat selection and landscape constraints to risk exposure. Selection cannot always compensate for landscape constraints, indicating a need for further investigation of the processes underlying habitat selection.

Spatial ecology of endangered big‐headed turtles (Platysternon megacephalum): Implications of its vulnerability to illegal trapping

ABSTRACTMost populations of big‐headed turtles (Platysternon megacephalum), a species distributed in 6 countries in Southeast Asia, have been heavily depleted because of severe hunting pressure for the food and pet trade. As with many other Southeast Asian turtles, low densities of individuals and few remaining populations have limited our ability to study, and thus understand, the ecology of this stream‐dwelling species. We conducted a radiotelemetry study on 31 adult big‐headed turtles to investigate their home range, movements, and habitat use. The home ranges of big‐headed turtles were small, with a mean 100% home‐range length of 97 m and 100% minimum convex polygon size of 996 m2. Movements by male and female big‐headed turtles did not differ and both sexes moved longer distances in wet seasons than in dry seasons. Both males and females showed non‐random habitat use, preferring to stay in pools rather than in other in‐stream or terrestrial habitats. Stream width and depth, and substrate type affected microhabitat use. Big‐headed turtles were highly aquatic and movements in terrestrial habitats were rare. Thus, turtle populations are concentrated in streams where they may be easily targeted by illegal trappers. We recommend increasing patrol efforts along streams to remove any traps or fish hooks. Innovative methods, such as installation of infrared‐triggered cameras equipped with remote viewing near or along streams, may be needed to tackle illegal turtle trapping effectively. © 2015 The Wildlife Society.

Survival and movement of translocated houbara bustards in a mixed conservation area

AbstractFor endangered species that are hunted, the establishment of mixed conservation areas including both hunting zones and sanctuaries to complement translocation actions (i.e. reinforcement) can improve both hunting yields and population sustainability. However, the effects of this type of management on the demography of the exploited species are not well understood. We used multi‐event capture–recapture modelling in a population of captive‐bred houbara bustards Chlamydotis undulata translocated into a mixed conservation area in Morocco. The specific management practice of our system (hunting regime varying in time and space) led to a quasi‐experimental situation that allowed the differentiation of ‘natural’ from ‘hunting‐induced’ mortality and movement between areas. The analysis uncovered strong asymmetries in both movement and survival that were not only due to direct hunting effects. Firstly, movement probabilities were higher from the sanctuary to the hunting areas than vice versa, even in years without hunting. Secondly, in addition to a direct effect of hunting on mortality in hunting areas, our results uncovered permanent differences in both areas (even outside the hunting period). Overall, our results were consistent with predictions under a source–sink dynamic model but illustrated that mixed conservation areas should not merely be treated as homogeneous systems with spatially heterogeneous hunting pressure but rather as fully heterogeneous systems. The patterns observed may be related to (1) the choice and design of hunting and sanctuary areas by managers, which might not be neutral with respect to habitat quality, or (2) indirect consequences of hunting via an effect on local growth rate and density.

Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible tool to determine temporal trends with full account for any imbalance in the data set and for imperfect detection.

An adaptive behavioural response to hunting: surviving male red deer shift habitat at the onset of the hunting season

Hunting by humans can be a potent driver of selection for morphological and life history traits in wildlife populations across continents and taxa. Few studies, however, have documented selection on behavioural responses that increase individual survival under human hunting pressure. Using habitat with dense concealing cover is a common strategy for risk avoidance, with a higher chance of survival being the payoff. At the same time, risk avoidance can be costly in terms of missed foraging opportunities. We investigated individual fine-scale use of habitat by 40 GPS-marked European red deer, Cervus elaphus, and linked this to their survival through the hunting season. Whereas all males used similar habitat in the days before the hunting season, the onset of hunting induced an immediate switch to habitat with more concealing cover in surviving males, but not in males that were later shot. This habitat switch also involved a trade-off with foraging opportunities on bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, a key forage plant in autumn. Moreover, deer that use safer forest habitat might survive better because they make safer choices in general. The lack of a corresponding pattern in females might be because females were already largely using cover when hunting started, as predicted by sexual segregation theory and the risk of losing offspring. The behavioural response of males to the onset of hunting appears to be adaptive, given that it is linked to increased survival, an important fitness component. We suggest that predictable harvesting regimes with high harvest rates could create a strong selective pressure for deer to respond dynamically to the temporal change in hunting risk. Management should consider the potential for both ecological and evolutionary consequences of harvesting regimes on behaviour.

A Kenyan endemic bird species Turdoides hindei at home in invasive thickets

Thickets along rivers in Eastern Kenya are important habitats for many endangered species. These habitats also provide fundamental ecosystem services for humans. Intense anthropogenic activities during the past decades have caused a severe reduction of this vegetation and resulted in fragmentation of the remaining thicket patches. We assessed the occurrence of the Kenyan endemic bird species Hinde's Babbler (Turdoides hindei) in a highly fragmented environment and performed detailed land use mapping along the Nzeeu River in East Kenya. We measured the time the birds spent in thicket patches, which differed in their habitat setting: pristine versus surrogate vegetation, different habitat size and different edge-size-ratio. Further, we identified areas of potential conflicts between human activities and our target species. Four T. hindei family groups were observed, mostly in invasive Lantana camara patches. Habitat size and edge-size-ratio of the respective thicket patches revealed a significant impact on the duration of stay of T. hindei with disproportional longer stays in small habitat patches and in patches with larger edge-size-ratio than in rather large patches or thickets with small edge-size-ratio. The 75%- and 95%-kernels showed no overlap between family groups and only marginal overlap with the 75%-kernels of human disturbances. Our data show that the invasive L. camara thickets (even small patches with high edge-size ratio) are a suitable surrogate habitat for the Kenyan endemic for T. hindei. The birds avoid open land likely because of higher predation pressure outside of thickets. Limited overlap between zones of human activity and the occurrence of T. hindei may be a response either to lacking thickets in these areas, and/or an adaptation to elevated hunting pressure in these zones. Therefore, the transformation of thickets into open agricultural land has a negative impact on the persistence of T. hindei. For the preservation of the remaining T. hindei family groups in our study area we suggest to establish an interconnected network of thicket patches, as the high mobility of the species allows persistence in such patchy environments.

The relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting mortality on the population dynamics of brown bears.

There is increasing evidence of indirect effects of hunting on populations. In species with sexually selected infanticide (SSI), hunting may decrease juvenile survival by increasing male turnover. We aimed to evaluate the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting via SSI on the population dynamics of the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos). We performed prospective and retrospective demographic perturbation analyses for periods with low and high hunting pressures. All demographic rates, except yearling survival, were lower under high hunting pressure, which led to a decline in population growth under high hunting pressure (λ = 0.975; 95% CI = 0.914–1.011). Hunting had negative indirect effects on the population through an increase in SSI, which lowered cub survival and possibly also fecundity rates. Our study suggests that SSI could explain 13.6% of the variation in population growth. Hunting also affected the relative importance of survival and fecundity of adult females for population growth, with fecundity being more important under low hunting pressure and survival more important under high hunting pressure. Our study sheds light on the importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting on population dynamics, and supports the contention that hunting can have indirect negative effects on populations through SSI.

Problem behaviour of black bears (Ursus americanus) in central Ontario: the effects of hunting and natural food availability

Problem bear behaviour in residential areas often results in human anxiety and potential injury, bear mortality and demographic instability. Identifying and understanding factors related to problem bear activity and encounters is important for developing successful management strategies. Indices of natural bear forage availability and hunting pressure were related to problem bear activity in central Ontario. Data were collected 5 years before and 5 years after the cancellation of a spring bear hunt, providing a unique opportunity to study the effect of management policy on problem behaviour. Problem bear activity indices increased significantly following the closure of the spring hunt. Natural food availability from the previous year was found to be highly correlated with early season problem bear activity indices; however, natural food availability during the same year was not significantly related to early or late season problem activity rates. This demonstrates that multiple potential causal agents of problem bear behaviour need to be considered when developing management strategies.

Invasive axis deer and wild boar in a protected area in Argentina, controlled hunting, and Taylor’s law

Abstract Context Spatial and temporal variability in population density tends to increase with an increasing mean density, as widely documented by Taylor’s law (TL) of fluctuation scaling. A management program based on local hunters has been used to control invasive wild boar and axis deer in a protected area of north-eastern Argentina since 2006. Aim We determine the effects of species (boar or deer), hunting shift (diurnal, overnight), human disturbance (by comparing one section open for public use, one not) and time scale (one- versus three-month periods) on the values of the parameters of TL, and consider both its spatial and temporal forms. Methods Park management collected data on the hunting efforts and harvest of 6104 hunting parties shooting from elevated blinds from 2006 to 2015. The log-transformed sample means and variances of four indices of relative abundance were computed for each period and blind, and analysed through least-squars linear regression and ANCOVA. Key results Axis deer satisfied the spatial TL by all four indices, but wild boar had a significantly non-linear relationship for crude catch per unit effort (CP–UE) only. In the spatial TL, the slope b did not deviate significantly from 1 when using crude or standardised catch per hunting-party session or standardised CPUE, but b was substantially >1 for crude CPUE in both species (range, 1.307–1.434). Human disturbance, hunting shift, and time scale did not significantly modify the parameters of the spatial TL, except in two cases. All metrics at identified blinds over consecutive trimesters confirmed the temporal TL. Wild boar crude catch was 43% greater in the restricted zone of greater conservation value, whereas axis deer catch was 60% greater in the public-use zone. Conclusions With rare exceptions, TL describes well the mean and variance of four metrics of abundance of wild boar and axis deer under sustained hunting pressure. This paper may be the first to demonstrate the connection of TL with any aspect of vertebrate pest control. Implications TL identifies key zones with a high mean and high variance of ungulate density for targeted control, and can be used to attain fixed-precision estimates of abundance through sequential sampling.

Distribution and habitat of the Laotian Rock Rat Laonastesaenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 (Rodentia: Diatomyidae) in Vietnam.

The Laotian Rock Rat Laonastes aenigmamus Jenkins, Kilpatrick, Robinson & Timmins, 2005 was originally discovered in Lao People's Democratic Republic in 2005. This species has been recognized as the sole surviving member of the otherwise extinct rodent family Diatomyidae. Laonastes aenigmamus was initially reported only in limestone forests of Khammouane Province, Central Lao. A second population was recently discovered in Phong Nha Ke Bang National Park (PNKB NP), Quang Binh Province, Central Vietnam in 2011. The confirmed distribution range of L. aenigmamus in Vietnam is very small, approximately 150 km2, covering low karst mountains in five communes of Minh Hoa District, Quang Binh Province, at elevations between 250 and 400 m asl. The Laotian Rock Rat inhabits the lower part of steep karst towers with many rock boulders and crevices under tall limestone evergreen forest. They use small rock crevices for their dens. The natural habitat of this species in PNKB NP has been affected by selected timber harvesting, however, a complex 3-4 layer forest structure is retained. The Laotian Rock Rat is omnivorous, feeding on parts (leaves, buds, fruits and roots) of 18 plant species and also some insects (cicada, mantis, grasshopper). The population of this species in PNKB NP is seriously threatened with extinction due to its very restricted distribution, high hunting pressure, and habitat disturbance. Laonastes aenigmamus is listed in the IUCN Red List as endangered and in the Wildlife and Aquatic Red List of Lao, however, this species has not been listed in the Red Data Book or any conservation legislative documents of Vietnam.

Co-occurring cryptic species pose challenges for conservation: a case study of the African dwarf crocodile (Osteolaemusspp.) in Cameroon

AbstractThe conservation status of threatened taxa may be obfuscated by the detection of cryptic species complexes, in both vertebrate and invertebrate species. African dwarf crocodiles (Osteolaemusspp.) are hunted throughout their range but their conservation status is unknown. Few population assessments have been carried out and there has been a taxonomic revision of the number of species in the genus. The similar morphologies ofOsteolaemus tetraspisandOsteolaemus osbornipose a challenge for conservation in Cameroon, where they are still managed as a single species. Nocturnal spotlight surveys were conducted in three regions during August–November 2010 and December 2011–February 2012 to provide population assessments ofO. tetraspisandO. osborniand raise awareness of the two species in Cameroon. The mean encounter rates ofO. tetraspisandO. osborniwere 1.02 ± SD 1.34 (65 individuals in 39 surveys) and 0.61 ± SD 0.38 (three in four surveys) crocodiles per km, respectively. TheO. tetraspispopulation comprised juveniles predominantly and had a male-biased sex ratio. The fewO. osbornidetected comprised both adults and juveniles. Both species are threatened in Cameroon, based on low encounter rates, young population structures and the threats of habitat loss and hunting pressure. This study provides distribution maps and serves as a baseline to quantify population trends and inform conservation strategies.

Primates of Serranía de las Minas (Upper Magdalena Valley, Colombia)

Primate populations have declined and disappeared from many localities of the Colombian Andes as a result of habitat loss and hunting pressure. The original forest cover of this mountainous region has been cleared by 70%, even though there has been a recent recovery of the area. Additionally, hunting practices have extirpated populations from otherwise suitable areas. These threats have resulted in smaller and isolated populations, with a higher risk of extinction, scattered across this mountain system.

Factors influencing red fox occupancy probability in central Mongolia

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) occurs widely throughout the northern hemisphere, but few models exist to describe the species’ distribution, especially in Asia where populations are thought to be declining in part due to habitat loss and conversion. We used an occupancy modeling approach to evaluate how landscape factors influence red fox distribution in a steppe region of Mongolia. We collected detection/non-detection data from four surveys of 124 sites from June to September 2010, then evaluated the support of six models to explain occupancy probability in the landscape. Models related occupancy probability to (1) cover habitat, (2) food-rich habitat, (3) open habitat with greater opportunities for vigilance, (4) human developments including herder camps and roads, and (5) marmot colonies, which provide denning sites. We also included a null model that no factors meaningfully influenced occupancy. We detected foxes at 38 sites (31% of total) and during 54 surveys (11% of total). Only the ‘cover’ model demonstrated strong empirical support. This model suggested that occupancy probability was positively influenced by the amount of rocky and shrubland habitats, which provide the most cover and concealment. Red foxes are intensively hunted in Mongolia (and elsewhere in Asia) and probably seek these habitats to avoid detection, suggesting that hunting pressure influences patterns of distribution. Our results provide a model that may be applied to other steppe regions to map red fox distribution and explore how landscape changes may affect the species.

Local knowledge and exploitation of the avian fauna by a rural community in the semi-arid zone of northeastern Brazil.

BackgroundThe present study examined the exploitation of bird species by the residents of a rural community in the Brazilian semi-arid zone, and their preferences for species with different characteristics.MethodsThe 24 informants were identified using the “snowball” approach, and were interviewed using semi-structured questionnaires and check-sheets for the collection of data on their relationship with the bird species that occur in the region. The characteristics that most attract the attention of the interviewees were the song and the coloration of the plumage of a bird, as well as its body size, which determines its potential as a game species, given that hunting is an important activity in the region.ResultsA total of 98 species representing 32 families (50.7% of the species known to occur in the region) were reported during interviews, being used for meat, pets, and medicinal purposes. Three species were used as zootherapeutics – White-naped Jay was eaten whole as a cure for speech problems, the feathers of Yellow-legged Tinamou were used for snakebite, Smooth-billed Ani was eaten for “chronic cough” and Small-billed Tinamou and Tataupa Tinamou used for locomotion problems. The preference of the informants for characteristics such as birdsong and colorful plumage was a significant determinant of their preference for the species exploited. Birds with cynegetic potential and high use values were also among the most preferred species. Despite the highly significant preferences for certain species, some birds, such as those of the families Trochilidae, Thamnophilidae, and Tyrannidae are hunted randomly, independently of their attributes.ConclusionThe evidence collected on the criteria applied by local specialists for the exploitation of the bird fauna permitted the identification of the species that suffer hunting pressure, providing guidelines for the development of conservation and management strategies that will guarantee the long-term survival of the populations of these bird species in the region.

Heavily hunted wolves have higher stress and reproductive steroids than wolves with lower hunting pressure

Summary Human‐caused harassment and mortality (e.g. hunting) affects many aspects of wildlife population dynamics and social structure. Little is known, however, about the social and physiological effects of hunting, which might provide valuable insights into the mechanisms by which wildlife respond to human‐caused mortality. To investigate physiological consequences of hunting, we measured stress and reproductive hormones in hair, which reflect endocrine activity during hair growth. Applying this novel approach, we compared steroid hormone levels in hair of wolves (Canis lupus) living in Canada's tundra–taiga (n = 103) that experience heavy rates of hunting with those in the northern boreal forest (n = 45) where hunting pressure is substantially lower. The hair samples revealed that progesterone was higher in tundra–taiga wolves, possibly reflecting increased reproductive effort and social disruption in response to human‐related mortality. Tundra–taiga wolves also had higher testosterone and cortisol levels, which may reflect social instability. To control for habitat differences, we also measured cortisol in an out‐group of boreal forest wolves (n = 30) that were killed as part of a control programme. Cortisol was higher in the boreal out‐group than in our study population from the northern boreal forest. Overall, our findings support the social and physiological consequences of human‐caused mortality. Long‐term implications of altered physiological responses should be considered in management and conservations strategies.

Age structure of the Vulnerable white-lipped peccaryTayassu pecariin areas under different levels of hunting pressure in the Amazon Forest

AbstractSubsistence hunting can change the demographic structure of wild mammal populations, increasing the proportion of young animals, inducing females to reproduce early and increasing litter sizes. We examined the relationship between hunting pressure and age structure in the Vulnerable white-lipped peccaryTayassu pecari, analysing the distribution of age classes at seven sites in the region Terra do Meio in the Brazilian Amazon. These sites differ in the number of human inhabitants and hence were subject to differing hunting pressures. We completed semi-structured interviews with local people to assess the importance of hunting and of the white-lipped peccary as food. We also estimated the age of hunted white-lipped peccaries by assessing tooth eruption and tooth wear in skulls of hunted individuals. Our results indicated that the white-lipped peccary was the most frequently hunted terrestrial animal in the region. Fishing, followed by hunting, provided the main sources of animal protein. Our data suggest there is no relationship between age structure and hunting at the study sites. The social structure and mobility of white-lipped peccaries seem to minimize the effects of hunting on age structure. Our results, similar to previous studies, show that the age structure of the white-lipped peccary is robust to hunting impacts. Other factors may have stronger effects on age structure than subsistence hunting. We suggest that deforestation may explain the prevalence of older individuals in peccary populations to the north of our study sites.

Population structure and recent temporal changes in genetic variation in Eurasian otters from Sweden

The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) population in Sweden went through a drastic decline in population size between the 1950s and 1980s, caused mostly by anthropogenic factors such as high hunting pressure and the introduction of environmental toxic chemicals into the otter’s habitats. However, after the bans of PCBs and DDT in the 1970s, the population began to recover in the 1990s. This study compares microsatellite data across twelve loci from historical and contemporary otter samples to investigate whether there has been a change in population structure and genetic diversity across time in various locations throughout Sweden. The results suggest that otters in the south were more severely affected by the bottleneck, demonstrated by a decline in genetic diversity and a shift in genetic composition. In contrast, the genetic composition in otters from northern Sweden remained mostly unchanged, both in terms of population structure and diversity. This suggests that the decline was not uniform across the country. Moreover, our analyses of historical samples provide an overview of the level of genetic variation and population structure that existed prior to the bottleneck, which may be helpful for the future management and conservation of the species.

Range-expanding wildlife: modelling the distribution of large mammals in Japan, with management implications

The spatial distribution of large mammals has been increasing in industrial nations, often leading to conflicts with humans and significant alteration of natural ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDMs) of the sika deer, Japanese serow, wild boar, Japanese macaque and Asiatic black bear in Japan were constructed to identify the important factors for habitat management. We also projected two scenarios of their future range expansions under a scenario of no change in the variables, and one where the variables change according to a time series. Modelling showed that all species preferred forest and forest/agricultural ecotones. In the best models of the sika deer and wild boar, grasslands (GRASSs) were an important positive factor, while human population density and hunting pressures were negative factors. High human population density was also a negative factor with the Japanese serow and Asiatic black bear. Key environments for the distribution and expansion of large mammals were agricultural areas near forest and GRASSs. Therefore, limiting the access of large mammals to such habitats may contribute to wildlife management. In both scenarios, our projections suggest that the distributions of all species could expand by 2028, resulting in more conflict with humans and significant alterations to natural ecosystems in the future. In order to stop this damaging expansion, habitat management and landscape redesign are important. However, a SDM and future projection include uncertainty. It is necessary to validate the estimates and projections by monitoring the future changes in distribution.

Habituation to humans in a predator-free wild ungulate

Arctic caribou and reindeer face an increase in human activity, tourism and infrastructure, which impact may depend on the potential for habituation. Habituation to nonlethal human disturbance in wild animals depends on their risk perception and is therefore hard to separate from effects of predation and hunting pressure. Having evolved under strong isolation with negligible predation and only recent (and local) hunting, the high-Arctic wild Svalbard reindeer represent an adequate model system for studies of habituation to humans. Here, we test for habituation by repeatedly provoking 739 flight responses in 29 radio-collared females throughout two summers in a nonhunted population where human activity level decreases with the distance to a small settlement (Ny-Alesund). Following provocation by an approaching human on foot, reindeer escape distance (ED) before resuming normal activity ranged from 5 to 500 m and was highly variable among individuals (individual median ED = 23–100 m). Controlling for the effects of individual, observer, terrain ruggedness (positive effect) and having a calf (positive effect), ED increased with distance to Ny-Alesund [from 32 to 57 m (w/o calf) and 38 to 70 m (with calf) across ~1 to 24 km distance to Ny-Alesund]. ED also decreased with approach number during the two-month-long summer [average 44–34 m (w/o calf) and 55–43 m (with calf)]. The present study has demonstrated that the naive Svalbard reindeer habituates to human presence at small spatiotemporal scales through individual learning, suggesting that wild predator-free ungulates may adapt rapidly to increased human activity.