Identification of acute human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the stage of disease during the first few months of infection in which HIV viral replication and shedding peak before HIV antibodies are detectable [1], is of public health importance because acutely infected persons are likely to be unaware of their status and more infectious and may continue to engage in high-risk behavior that furthers HIV transmission. Pinkerton [2] used a simple mathematical model to estimate the number and proportion of sexually acquired HIV infections in the United States that are due to acute-phase transmission and found that an estimated 2760 persons acquired HIV as a consequence of risky sexual activities with an acutely infected sex partner. This accounted for 8.6% of the approximately 32 000 (then estimated) sexually acquired HIV infections each year. Since Pinkerton's estimates were published, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported annual HIV incidence estimates in the United States that are about 40% higher than previously estimated, increasing from 40 000 to 56 300 [3]. CDC also updated estimates for prevalence [4] and the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections [5]. These changes in HIV surveillance data create a need for updated transmission estimates. We used Pinkerton's [2] framework and updated the model to reflect recently published HIV surveillance data. We used the latest prevalence estimates for persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) [4], undiagnosed PLWH [5], and HIV incidence estimates [3]. We assumed that other parameters remained the same (Table 1).Table 1: Comparison with Pinkerton's estimates.The proportion of incident infections due to sexual transmission from a HIV-positive partner in an acute-HIV infection phase (Ia) remains (from [2]) where μ12 is the transmission rate ratio for acutely infected vs. nonacutely infected serostatus-unaware PLWH. μ23 is the transmission rate ratio for the nonacutely infected serostatus-unaware vs. serostatus-aware PLWH. N1 is the number of acutely infected PLWH available on a particular day. N2 is the number of nonacutely infected serostatus-unaware PLWH. N3 is the number of nonacutely infected serostatus-aware PLWH. In addition to the 45 500 new infections transmitted sexually [3], we assumed that some of the incident infections reported under men who have sex with men (MSM)/injection drug users (IDU) transmission category were caused sexually. The sexual and IDU transmissions in the MSM/IDU group were assumed to be in the same proportion as the ratio of incidence of MSM-only and IDU-only transmission groups (28 700: 6600 = 4.34: 1). Based on this ratio, about 1700 of the 2100 new MSM/IDU infections each year can be considered as sexually transmitted. We estimate that about 5371 persons each year acquired HIV as a consequence of risky sexual activities with an acutely infected sex partner in the United States. This accounts for about 11.4% of the total annual incident sexual infections compared with 8.6% as estimated by Pinkerton. PLWH unaware of their infections are estimated to be the sources for about 53.2% of the new infections. The overall transmission rate per PLWH is estimated at 0.012% per day (0.009% per day estimated by Pinkerton). The transmission rate per PLWH in the acute phase is also higher at 0.195% per day (0.141% per day estimated by Pinkerton). Applying the latest incidence data and assigning a proportion of the MSM/IDU transmission category to the number of incident cases due to sexual transmission resulted in an increase in the proportion of sexual transmissions due to acute phase transmission in the United States over what Pinkerton previously estimated. As the increase in incidence (40%) was larger than that in prevalence (10%), daily and annual transmission rates for all PLWH categories, including acutely infected PLWH, increased as they were computed as a ratio of incident infections. Our findings are consistent with Pinkerton's in that the proportion of sexually acquired infections in the United States due to acute-phase transmission is much smaller than has been suggested [9,10]. Our updated analysis is also useful, as it provides updated annual and daily transmission rates for acutely and nonacutely infected PLWH. Additional research on the risk behavior of persons with acute HIV infection in the United States, particularly their risk behavior after notification of their HIV status, is needed to further refine these estimates. Our analysis is subject to the same limitations as Pinkerton's analysis, particularly uncertainty in key parameters used to derive the acute phase transmission rate ratio [6–8]; however, our analysis does use updated, and likely more reliable, incidence data than were used in the Pinkerton analysis. In addition, our analysis does not include sensitivity analysis. Acknowledgements V.S.P., A.B.H., P.G.F., and S.L.S. contributed equally to the conception and design of the paper. V.S.P. conducted the analysis and wrote the first draft. A.B., P.G.F., and S.L.S. helped revise the draft. All the authors were involved in the final approval of the manuscript.
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