Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine changes in India’s air quality following abrupt reductions in anthropogenic emissions, particularly from transportation, industry, and construction. While many studies reported substantial pollution declines during the lockdown, most focused exclusively on this period, neglecting the subsequent “unlock” phase, the influence of transboundary pollution, and the need to distinguish between emission-driven and meteorology-driven changes in PM2.5. Our study addresses these gaps by isolating the contributions of meteorological variability and activity restrictions on PM2.5 across the entire lockdown and unlock phases (February 24-June 30, 2020) using a high-resolution modelling framework and satellite-derived PM2.5 data. We found that PM2.5 concentrations decreased by 29% post-lockdown compared to a 21% decrease over the same period in preceding years, with satellite data indicating reductions of 31% and 22%, respectively. However, only 8-9% of these reductions were directly attributable to emission controls, underscoring the dominant role of meteorology. The most pronounced PM2.5 declines occurred in the Indo-Gangetic Plain during the unlock phase. Despite the initial improvements, strict curbs on transportation, industry, and construction alone proved insufficient to bring PM2.5 levels below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. A crucial finding is that persistent emissions from the residential sector, which were not curtailed during the lockdown, significantly limited the overall reduction in PM2.5. Without concerted efforts to address household emissions, including the adoption of cleaner fuels (e.g., through programs like the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana) and improved waste management to prevent garbage burning, India will not achieve sustained compliance with national standards. These insights highlight the urgent need for integrated, regionally tailored, long-term strategies that simultaneously target household sources alongside other key sectors. Implementing comprehensive measures could yield substantial, enduring gains in India’s air quality, forging a clearer path toward healthier, more sustainable environments.
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