Rock burst disasters severely restrict the safe and efficient mining of coal. The fundamental cause of their occurrence is the concentration of stress within the coal mass. Stress monitoring in coal seam drilling is widely used as an effective method for rock burst monitoring. However, how to scientifically and reasonably set the critical values of early warning indicators that match the conditions of each mine has always been a key issue restricting the accurate prediction of rock burst by the drilling stress method. This paper adopts a method combining theoretical analysis and field practice to conduct research on the critical values of drilling stress early warning indicators. Based on perturbation response instability theory, a mechanical model for the occurrence of impact ground pressure has been established. Based on the instability theory of disturbance response, a mechanical model for the occurrence of impact ground pressure has been established, leading to the derivation of the expression for the near-field critical stress of impact ground pressure events. The theoretical formula for the critical value of drilling stress early warning indicators was obtained based on the difference between the critical stress of rock burst occurrence and the actual stress in the roadway. This formula includes the mechanical parameters of the coal mass and its propensity for rock burst, roadway support stress, mining depth, stress concentration coefficient, and the initial installation pressure of the stress gauge. They can be determined by the geological and mining technical conditions of each mine. This theoretical formula breaks the uniformity of the critical values for stress warning indicators in various mine drill holes, allowing each mine to scientifically determine its critical value based on its own conditions. This theoretical method has been applied to a high-stress mine in Shanxi, China, and the critical values of drilling stress early warning indicators were obtained. When the monitored stress exceeded the critical value, dynamic phenomena of anchor rod and cable fractures occurred in the roadway roof. The distribution of microseismic events also shifted towards the warning area, and the microseismic monitoring indicators reached the warning values. This confirmed the engineering feasibility of the critical values for drilling stress early warning indicators determined by the theoretical method.
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