Rupture History Research Articles

Temporality in the United Nations 2030 Agenda: development or rupture?

Time is a constitutive element of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations (UN). This article analyses how the 2030 Agenda articulates time – i.e. how its discourse connects past, present and future. This analysis shows how the agenda partially breaks with the 19th-century evolutionist assumptions that pervaded previous UN development policies and strategies. On the one hand, the 2030 Agenda implicitly assumes that a historical rupture is needed to shift the world towards a sustainable path in order to avert a civilisational crisis, and that the history of modern, industrialised Western countries is no longer exemplary in this respect. On the other hand, the 2030 Agenda fails to integrate the need for a historical rupture consequentially: it falls into contradictions and continues to replicate the linear logics that caused the very problems that the agenda aims to solve. ‘Development or rupture?’ seems to be the troublesome and difficult dilemma that haunts the UN’s endeavour to transform the world.

Iconic architecture as vessel for political and cultural expression-Victoria Theatre and Concert Hall changing with Singapore cultural icon

ABSTRACT Architecture embodies symbolic meanings evolving across shifting socio-political landscapes. This paper investigates the multivalent transformations of Singapore’s iconic colonial landmark – the Victoria Theatre and Concert Hall (VTCH). Tracing VTCH’s metamorphosing roles, functions, and identities through historical ruptures like British rule, Japanese occupation, decolonization, and nation-building, it illuminates how the complex underwent profound changes. The analysis underscores how regimes continually reimagined this architectural palimpsest to forge national narratives, consolidate collective memories, and materialize power relations. VTCH’s transition from colonial edifice to a symbolically imbued site mirrors the intricate interplay between built environments and Singapore’s spatial politics. Once symbols of colonial dominance, the buildings later embodied sovereign nationhood and nostalgic roots. Notably, VTCH recently assumed new roles driving cultural tourism and economic growth. Through a diachronic interrogation of this singular icon, the paper elucidates broader dialectics between decolonization, nation-building, and the semiotics of heritage in (re)constructing collective identities. It offers insights into how societies redefine spatial legacies to serve evolving ideological imperatives and identity discourses. Integrating the micro-architectural and macro-national enriches understandings of the mutually constitutive relationships between the built environment, political authority and national consciousness.

Memory, comparison, and reciprocal commensuration: searching for the socialist ‘bad life’ in aspirational Vietnam

ABSTRACT How does one remember the past that is radically incompatible with the present? This article addresses this question by demonstrating the work of memory as reciprocal commensuration – the intensive social labor required to make the past and the present comparable, and the condition of bittersweetness that is inherent to this process. Drawing from twenty-eight life stories of Hanoi’s residents who usually claim that ‘life today is better than before’, this article traces the ways Hanoi people turn the ‘badness’ of the socialist life into a ground of comparison against which ‘life today’ was graded as ‘better’. This paper then unpacks how the materialistic quality of the ‘better life’ was historically formed along the greater intensities of ‘Western’ comfort, convenience, and abundance, which were experienced and still embraced by an extensive network of Vietnamese workers who traveled to Eastern Europe in the 1980s. But despite the dominant narrative of the current ‘better life’ as an escape from socialist miseries, memories of Hanoi residents about life quality under socialism reveal an ambivalent state of bittersweetness, in which laments about past sufferings become folded in with stories of half-forgotten progress, and stories of progress are entangled with lamentations of ongoing dissatisfaction. Thinking about memory in terms of commensuration makes visible the ways Vietnamese people orient themselves out of socialism, demonstrating the navigational power of memory in contexts of radical historical ruptures.

About the “predecessors” of the 2023 February earthquakes, Turkey

In the frame of a comprehensive investigation of historical earthquakes of Anatolia, we propose a re-appraisal of four major earthquakes/sequences occurred after 1000 AD (1114/1115, 1269, 1513/1514 and 1544), which could be considered as predecessors of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023. The main purpose is to provide reliable parameter values for the investigated earthquakes. Our investigation consisted of: retrieving and analysing the main primary historical sources; identifying the localities mentioned and assessing macroseismic intensity; determining earthquake parameters (location, magnitude and – where possible – the source azimuth) with the repeatable and transparent “Boxer” method, after properly calibrating the relevant coefficient by considering recent earthquakes of the Anatolian region. Our investigations show that the 1114 earthquake can be considered as a predecessor of the main 2023 earthquake, although the latter ruptured a larger area; the earthquake of 1544 may be a predecessor of the second event of 2023, February; and that the background of the 1513/1514 earthquake is so poor that a lot of care is required while handling the currently available parameters. In conclusion, we also compare our results with the findings of paleoseismological investigation and discuss how they contribute to understanding the rupture history of the East Anatolian Fault.

Rings: Minna, Nathan, and Memory-Play

The literature has long debated the meaning and function of the play of rings staged to such effect by the titular heroine of Lessing’s 1767 Minna von Barnhelm, and the rings that stand at the center of the parable told by the titular hero of his 1779 Nathan the Wise. What has been missing is a sustained examination of the question of whether and how these rings might serve related functions in the two works. This article considers the Lustspiel and Dramatisches Gedicht together in order to argue that the rings in each case need to be understood as tokens of remembrance, and that the complexity of the ring-thematic reflects an essential ambivalence in Lessing’s understanding of memory. Each ring comes to represent both the circularity of a return to past realities and commitments, and those historical ruptures and developments that prevent such a return. By extension, the dramas’ rings more broadly represent a fraught transition, one both emancipatory and destabilizing, from what Aleida Assmann (Erinnerungsräume: Formen und Wandlungen des kulturellen Gedächtnisses [1999]) has described as a memory model inherited from the memoria tradition and based on the principle of archival retrieval, to a modern memory model based on a principle of reshaping and renewal rooted in the present.

Rupture segmentation on the East Anatolian fault (Turkey) controlled by along-strike variations in long-term slip rates in a structurally complex fault system

Abstract The East Anatolian fault in Turkey exhibits along-strike rupture segmentation, typically resulting in earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) up to 7.5 that are confined to individual segments. However, on 6 February 2023, a catastrophic Mw 7.8 earthquake struck near Kahramanmaraş (southeastern Turkey), defying previous expectations by rupturing multiple segments spanning over 300 km and overcoming multiple geometric complexities. We explore the mechanics of successive single- and multi-segment ruptures using numerical models of the seismic cycle calibrated to historical earthquake records and geodetic observations of the 2023 doublet. Our model successfully reproduces the observed historical rupture segmentation and the rare occurrence of multi-segment earthquakes. The segmentation pattern is influenced by variations in long-term slip rate along strike across the kinematically complex fault network between the Arabian and Anatolian plates. Our physics-based seismic cycle simulations shed light on the long-term variability of earthquake size that shapes seismic hazards.

Palaeoseismic crisis in the Galera Fault (southern Spain): consequences in Bronze Age settlements?

Abstract. Palaeoseismological studies play a crucial role in the seismic characterization of regions with slow-moving faults. This is the case in the central Betic Cordillera, a highly populated area for which the record of prehistoric earthquakes is very limited, despite being one of the regions with the greatest seismic hazard in Spain. We present here a palaeoseismological characterization of the Galera Fault, one of the active faults accommodating deformation in the central Betic Cordillera. We excavated and analysed several trenches along the fault trace. We quantitatively correlate the results from these trenches, resulting in a surface rupture history involving seven or eight events (accounting for the epistemic uncertainties) during the last ca. 24 000 years, with recurrence intervals ranging from 1520 to 1720 years. Further analysis of this surface rupture history seems to indicate that the Galera Fault is prone to producing earthquake clusters as we recorded five events in ∼400 years (ca. 1536–1126 BCE) and only two events in the ∼3200 years that followed. Using the fault geometry and palaeoseismological data, we also carried out a seismogenic characterization of the fault. This analysis yielded a maximum expected magnitude of 6.7 ± 0.3 and a recurrence interval of 1857 years. Furthermore, we also present a geodetic rupture scenario for the maximum expected event, involving displacements of up to 0.5 m. Finally, we discuss the possible impact of the deduced palaeoearthquakes on the development of Bronze Age human settlements located in the vicinity of the fault. In addition to their intrinsic value, our results will provide the basis for future seismic-hazard assessments carried out in the central Betic Cordillera.

Initial rupture sequence and rupture history of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from a kinematic perspective

Initial rupture sequence and rupture history of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from a kinematic perspective

Modernity under the Alias 'Oriental Bismarck' of Li Hongzhang: The Lack of Cultural Subjectivity and the Reconstruction of Nationalism

As a prominent politician of the late Qing dynasty, Li Hongzhang possessed numerous aliases, among which "Oriental Bismarck" holds a special significance. This appellation not only reflects the shift in the Chinese evaluation system of historical figures from traditional modes under the influence of Orientalism but also implies the consciousness and practice of nationalism in the modernization model of developing countries. Against the backdrop of the wave of colonialism and the statism vision of self-improvement, concepts like "Oriental-someone/something" in Chinese context embody a loss of cultural subjectivity of the traditional Chinese discourse power. Simultaneously, it reveals that, amidst the entanglement between the old China and the West, certain foreign elements and cultural symbols could be useful to construct the modernity and to affirm the uniqueness of China itself, by relying on nationalism. By analyzing the cultural significance and historical ruptures behind appellations like "Oriental Bismarck," this article adopts a postmodern historical perspective to criticize simplistic interpretations of modernization theory and explores how these appellations serve as important windows for studying the construction of history and modernity.

The Stress State before the MS 6.8 Luding Earthquake on 5 September 2022 in Sichuan, China: A Retrospective View Based on the b-Value

On 5 September 2022 (BJT), Luding, located in southwestern Sichuan Province, China, experienced an MS 6.8 earthquake. This earthquake occurred within the historical rupture zone of the 1786 MS 7.75 event, part of the southern section of the Xianshui He Fault belt. Given the average 155-year recurrence interval for strong earthquakes in this area, the 236 years since the last event made this earthquake somewhat expected. However, prior to this event, we did not detect any anomalies indicating low surface b-values, which are often indicative of a high-stress state in the source area before strong earthquakes, as highlighted by numerous studies. Our research focused on the northern section of the eastern boundary of the Sichuan–Yunnan sub-block, encompassing the Xianshui He, Anning He, Zemu He, and Daliang Shan fault belts. We meticulously located earthquakes of ML ≥ 1.5 from 2009 to May 2022. The catalog was divided into two periods: 2009–2014 and 2015–May 2022. Using an AIC-constraint method, we analyzed the changes in b-values (Δb) in the latter period compared to the former. Our findings revealed a significant abnormal Δb zone (Δb < −0.3), with a radius of approximately 50 km, when ΔAIC ≥ 2 was selected. Intriguingly, the epicenter of the recent Luding MS 6.8 earthquake fell within this abnormal zone. Furthermore, we calculated the b-value cross-section for the southern section of the Xianshui He fault belt using a directory of precisely located small earthquakes. This revealed that the location, scale, and shape of the abnormally low-b-value area corresponded with the large displacement co-seismic area of the main earthquake, affirming the b-value’s effectiveness in identifying asperities. The b-value’s temporal evolution prior to the mainshock exhibited a nearly decade-long continuous decrease, signifying a long-term stress-loading process akin to that observed before many strong earthquakes. The b-value anomalies observed from different profiles before the Luding earthquake underline the necessity of a comprehensive, multi-dimensional analysis of such anomalies. Finally, our analysis indicates that nine earthquakes with MS ≥ 6.5, including the Luding MS 6.8 event, have contributed to increased Coulomb Failure Stress change (ΔCFS) in the Daofu (DF)–Kangding (KD) section of the Xianshui He fault belt and the northern section of the Anning He fault belt south of Shimian (SM), with amplitudes surpassing the 0.01 MPa threshold. This suggests the potential for strong earthquakes in these zones.

Geodetic plate coupling and seismic potential on the main Himalayan thrust in Nepal

We model interseismic plate coupling distribution on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) in Nepal through the inversion of secular GNSS velocity data. To complement previously published data, we compile velocity data from ten additional continuous stations to improve spatial resolution in central and mid-western Nepal. A regional non-planar structural model is adopted to reproduce the MHT fault plane. In general, the coupling pattern seems nearly binary, indicating that transition from full coupling to decoupling is occurring sharply in very narrow zones. In eastern Nepal (> 84.5ºE), plate coupling is very strong from the surface to intermediate depths, including the source region of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. Geodetically estimated slip deficit rates are consistent with the rupture history of great earthquakes in the east revealed by geomorphological observations. In the west (< 83.0ºE), a weakly coupled zone extends laterally at intermediate depths, whereas the coupling in the shallower part remains very strong. Although the slip deficit rate in the west is significantly smaller than that in the east, seismic moment accumulated, since the last complete rupture in 1505 may be capable of generating a future great event. In central Nepal, estimated slip deficit rates are comparable with those in the east, and no great event has been documented over the past several centuries. Thus, the seismic risk may be most urgent in central Nepal. The development of local seismicity and crustal deformation should be carefully monitored.Graphical

The social and political bases of political economy: interpreting and periodising Italian developments since WWII

ABSTRACT We investigate the transition between Fordism and neoliberalism in Italy employing insights from International (IPE) and Comparative Political Economy (CPE). Transitions are key periods to observe how countries tend to converge towards similar political economy developments through processes of social, political and institutional adaptation. We contribute to the literature by detailing how transformations in the ‘social and political bases of political economy’ influence institutional change. We understand these transformations as movements from below (changes in sociodemographic and productive compositions, and social movements) and above (agency in political parties, trade unions, business associations and elites); we name these components ‘the social and productive composition’ and ‘the social and political representation sphere’ respectively. Employing process tracing, we identify three historical periods in post-WWII Italian political economy – state Fordism (1945–78), a transitional period we name ‘the long 1980s’ (1979–91), and neoliberalism (1992–) – delineated by two historical ruptures: a breakup moment in 1978–9 that signalled the decline of Fordism, and a critical juncture that ushered in neoliberalism in 1992. Analytically, changes within the social and productive composition during state Fordism impacted on the social and political representation sphere, and on several reforms undertaken in different institutional domains. However, since the breakup moment 1978–9 this dynamic changed together with the international political economy context. Similar to other western countries, the main actors within the social and political representation sphere increasingly approached institutional regulation inspired by neoliberal ideas, while the pressures coming from the more active forces within the social and productive composition faltered.

“SAVAGE DEMOCRACY” BY C. LEFORT AND M. ABENSOUR

The article examines one of the interpretations of radical democracy, which in the works of C. Lefort was called “savage democracy”. Based on the analysis of the historical development of political regimes of the modern era, Lefort comes to the conclusion that the victory of democracy is not a historical necessity. He proposes to go beyond the understanding of democracy as an established political regime and think of it as a constant conflict of political forces. M. Abensour reveals the term “savage democracy” as the power of people, manifested in the actions of people at the moment of historical rupture. At such moments political institutions are reestablished, and new political languages reflecting the interests of participants in popular movements are formulated.

Surface Rupturing Earthquakes of the Greater Caucasus Frontal Thrusts, Azerbaijan

AbstractHere we present the results of the first paleoseismic study of the Kura fold‐thrust belt in Azerbaijan based on field mapping, fault trenching, and Quaternary dating. Convergence at rates of ∼10 mm/yr between the Arabian and Eurasian Plates is largely accommodated by the Kura fold‐thrust belt which stretches between central Azerbaijan and Georgia along the southern front of the Greater Caucasus (45–48°E). Although destructive historic earthquakes are known here, little is known about the active faults responsible for these earthquakes. A paleoseismic trench was excavated across a 2‐m‐high fault scarp near Agsu revealing evidence of two surface rupturing earthquakes. Radiocarbon dating of the faulted sediments limits the earthquake timing to AD 1713–1895 and AD 1872–2003. Allowing for uncertainties in dating, the two events likely correspond to historical destructive M ∼ 7 earthquakes near Shamakhi, Azerbaijan in AD 1668 and 1902. A second trench 60 km west of Agsu was excavated near Goychay also revealing evidence of at least one event that occurred 334–118 BC. Holocene shortening and dip‐slip rates for the Kura fold‐thrust belt are ∼8.0 and 8.5 mm/yr, respectively, based on an uplifted strath terrace west of Agsu. The only known historical devastating (M &gt; ∼7) earthquakes in the Kura region, west of Shamakhi, occurred in 1139 and possibly 1668. The lack of reported historical ruptures from the past 4–8 centuries in the Kura, in contrast with the numerous recorded destructive earthquakes in Shamakhi, suggests that the Kura fold‐thrust belt may have accumulated sufficient strain to produce a M &gt; 7.7 earthquake.

A Decade of Short‐Period Earthquake Rupture Histories From Multi‐Array Back‐Projection

AbstractTeleseismic back‐projection imaging has emerged as a powerful tool for understanding the rupture propagation of large earthquakes. However, its application often suffers from artifacts related to the receiver array geometry. We developed a teleseismic back‐projection technique that can accommodate data from multiple arrays. Combined processing of P and pP waveforms may further improve the resolution. The method is suitable for defining arrays ad‐hoc to achieve a good azimuthal distribution for most earthquakes. We present a catalog of short‐period rupture histories (0.5–2.0 Hz) for all earthquakes from 2010 to 2022 with MW ≥ 7.5 and depth less than 200 km (56 events). The method provides automatic estimates of rupture length, directivity, speed, and aspect ratio, a proxy for rupture complexity. We obtained short‐period rupture length scaling relations that are in good agreement with previously published relations based on estimates of total slip. Rupture speeds were consistently in the sub‐Rayleigh regime for thrust and normal earthquakes, whereas a tenth of strike‐slip events propagated at supershear speeds. Many rupture histories exhibited complex behaviors, for example, rupture on conjugate faults, bilateral propagation, and dynamic triggering by a P wave. For megathrust earthquakes, ruptures encircling asperities were frequently observed, with downdip, updip, and balanced patterns. Although there is a preference for short‐period emissions to emanate from central and downdip parts of the megathrust, emissions updip of the main asperity are more frequent than suggested by earlier results.

Getúlio Vargas and the Making of Restrictive Migratory Policies in Post-1930 Brazil

Following Brazil’s “great migration” period (1880–1930) came Getúlio Vargas’s rise to power, marking a radical historical rupture. From 1930 onwards, we observed the construction of a framework of restrictive rules aimed at controlling the entry and stay of foreigners in the country, including an ethnically differentiated management of flows. This article sought to cross-reference the new migratory policy, aimed at both new entries and immigrants already present in the territory, with the issue of race. To this end, it dealt with two groups of immigrants whose flows were directly impacted by the new policies (and by racism), but not in the same way: Japanese and Jews. The reflection also turned to the different experiences in each of the two groups between the candidates for immigration—in the face of the new barriers imposed on entry and those already living in Brazil in the face of the assimilationist measures adopted. Brazilian migration policies and state actions have been studied more often than the agency of immigrants. In this sense, the existing studies have focused more on the management of new flows than on the experience of immigrants already settled in the territory. The text, therefore, assumed a change of perspective, opting for a look “from below” in order to focus on both sides of the scales and the border. Finally, it examined the historiography that dealt with migration policy during the Vargas era and, more specifically, that which focused on Jewish and Japanese immigration.

(UN)DOING HISTORY: A CASE FOR EPISTEMOLOGICAL ALTERITY

ABSTRACTThis article addresses two primary tensions that currently beset medieval history. The first concerns a contentious debate within the field regarding the relative merits of two interpretative approaches: that which seeks to situate the Middle Ages within a narrative of continuity wherein aspects of the medieval bear some relationship of familiarity with the present and that which accords a radical alterity to the past that instigates moments of historical rupture. The second tension concerns the fraught relationship between history as a site of knowledge production with some proximity to engaging and producing truth and history as constructed, wherein its purported object of study, the past, is not an ontological fact but a cultural artifact. In this instance, what we witness is less a debate among scholars within history than an amorphic anxiety about history. This article makes a case for engaging the radical alterity that confronts the historian of the Middle Ages. It does so, however, cognizant of an ontological impasse: if alterity is attentive to difference, a difference that resists translation into modern knowledge regimes, then what does it mean to engage it historically—that is, through a temporal structure that would have been foreign to the very period of study?

Surface rupture history and 18 kyr long slip rate along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault

We investigate the palaeo earthquakes and slip rate on the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault, which was involved in the surface rupture of the 6 February 2023 Pazarcık–Kahramanmaraş earthquake (M w 7.7) and provided insights into the long-term behaviour of this major continental fault. Palaeoseismological data from two trench sites reveal evidence for at least five surface ruptures in the Holocene Period. The historical earthquake of AD 1114 is verified at both trench sites but the following event of AD 1513 is identified at only one site. In addition, the age difference of the older events shows that historical activity is separated by much longer periods of relative quiescence that range from 500 to 1000 years, which suggests quasiperiodic earthquake occurrence on sub-segments of the Pazarcık segment. Our fault-parallel trenches revealed 101 ± 5 m offset in the last 18 kyr and 51 ± 1 m offset in the last 9 kyr on a buried stream channel and the actual channel of the same stream respectively. The correlation of the maximum and abandonment age of the channel with measured offsets revealed a 5.6 mm a −1 long-term slip rate of the fault. Supplementary material: A table and figures providing details of radiocarbon ages and trench sites are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6850786

„almost certainly the major European poet of the period after 1945“. George Steiner liest Paul Celan

The article examines, based on several works by cultural philosopher George Steiner, what con-ception of Europe he advocates by classifying Celan as “the major European poet of the period after 1945”. The analysis shows a convergence of poetic practices of modern poetry with basic values of a Humanist understanding of Europe, which Steiner experienced paradigmatically in Celan’s poems. This concerns not least Celan’s explicit intention of a future-oriented poetry after the rupture of history. Finally, the chapter questions the strict connection of Steiner’s aes-thetic and ethical ideas to the geographical and political space of Europe.

Asset Management of Wastewater Interceptors Adjacent to Bodies of Water

Pipeline asset management derives from pipelines’ physical conditions, condition rating, and serviceability through investigating, monitoring, and analyzing the rupture history. The remaining asset life and structural condition of the pipeline network running near and under bodies of water are often hard to predict. In case of a pipeline failure, major damage may occur to the surrounding environment, adding up to disruptions in service and repair costs. This paper develops multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and binary logistic regression models to predict how the bodies of water could affect the soil surrounding wastewater interceptors. The models were developed based on data from the City of Fort Worth, Texas. This study concludes that the pipe diameter, pipe age, location of the pipeline with reference to bodies of water (far or near), and the pipe material are the most significant variables that affect the surrounding conditions and remaining life of wastewater interceptors. In future, a clearer perception through increased software development and machine learning for managing pipeline asset management would provide impacts on different parameters on pipelines’ expected life.