Historical Conditions Research Articles

Reliable precipitation inputs are essential for hydrological modeling, yet global precipitation products often exhibit substantial discrepancies that introduce significant uncertainties into streamflow simulations and projections. In this study, we assessed the relative contribution of precipitation dataset uncertainty to discharge simulations and projections, in comparison with uncertainties from model structure, model parameters, and climate projections, in the Liujiang catchment, southwest China. Three widely used satellite-based products (CHIRPS, PERSIANN, and IMERG) and one reanalysis dataset (ERA5) were combined with three hydrological models of varying structural complexity to simulate streamflow. Using an ANOVA-based variance decomposition framework, we quantified the contributions of different uncertainty sources under both historical and future climate conditions. Results showed that precipitation input uncertainty dominates discharge simulations during the calibration period, contributing over 60% of total variance particularly at high flows, while interactions among precipitation, model structure, and parameters govern low-flow simulations. Under future climate scenarios, climate projection uncertainty overwhelmingly dominates discharge predictions with 50–80% of uncertainty contribution, yet precipitation products still contribute significantly across time scales. The compensation of precipitation biases by hydrological models can cause parameter values to deviate from their true physical meaning. This deviation may further amplify the differences in discharge projections driven by different precipitation products under future climate conditions and increase the overall uncertainty of streamflow projections. Overall, this study introduced an integrated approach to simultaneously assess precipitation uncertainty across flow regimes and future climate scenarios. These results emphasized the necessity of using ensemble approaches that incorporate multiple precipitation products in hydrological forecasting and impact studies, particularly in data-scarce regions reliant on global datasets.

Abstract. There is unequivocal evidence that climate change will change the risk profile of dams, which are critical pieces of infrastructure that safeguard water supply and provide flood mitigation for populated areas. A key input to assessing risks to dam safety is a probabilistic estimate of extreme flood magnitudes with the potential to overtop dams. However, few studies have attempted to consider climate change in such estimates due to the challenges involved. A recent examination of contemporary scientific findings pertinent to climate change impacts on the probability of dam overtopping floods has informed the projection of estimates made here. We project changes in the exceedance probabilities of overtopping floods, namely floods that exceed the dam crest flood, for 18 large dams in Australia under a range of global warming assumptions. Explicit consideration is given to the impacts of climate change on rainfall depth, rainfall temporal pattern, and rainfall losses resulting from changes in antecedent catchment wetness. We used event-based flood modelling and Monte Carlo sampling to appropriately represent the range of uncertainties associated with projecting estimates of extreme flood quantiles. The analysis is dependent on the degree of global warming, which allows results to be interpreted in terms of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and future time horizons. Our results are consistent with general expectations that the probability of dam overtopping floods will increase with global warming. Specifically, we found that increases in rainfall depth had the largest impact for all 18 dams under climate change. Under 4 °C of global warming, which approximates conditions towards the end of this century under a high emissions scenario, the probability of overtopping floods was between 2.4–17 times that of historical conditions for the dams investigated. We also found that the overtopping probability has more than doubled compared to the historical baseline for four of the dams investigated here as a result of global warming that has already occurred.

The Pantanal, considered the world’s largest tropical wetland, is increasingly threatened by intensifying droughts driven by climate variability and climate change. Using Multi-Source Weather data (MSWX), and bias-corrected multi-model means from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for the years 1980–2100, we assessed historical and future drought conditions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the Pantanal. Drought conditions were identified through the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) across multiple timescales, and with different reference periods. A historical analysis revealed a significant drying trend, culminating in the extreme droughts of 2019/2020 and 2023/24. Future projections indicate a dual pressure of declining precipitation and rising temperatures, intensifying the severity of dry conditions. By the late 21st century, SSP5-8.5 shows persistent, severe multi-year droughts, while SSP2-4.5 projects more variable but still intensifying dry spells. The SPEI highlights stronger drying than the SPI, underscoring the growing role of evaporative demand, which was confirmed through risk ratios for drought occurrence across temperature anomaly bins. These results offer multi-scalar insights into drought dynamics across the Pantanal wetland, with critical implications for biodiversity, water resources, and wildfire risk. Thus, they emphasise the urgency of adaptive management strategies to preserve ecosystem integrity under a warmer, drier future climate.

This essay will focus on the theoretical and political importance of anti-caste writings, taking Dalit feminist author Baby Kamble’s The Prisons We Broke (2009). It proposes that such Dalit writings need to be considered manifestos as they have an important role in advancing manuski or the human rights of Dalits. Anti-caste literary writings are critical foundations of the field of Dalit studies and enable Dalit theory to articulate and uphold the historical and contemporary conditions of Dalits’ oppression. Such manifestoes are thus documents for a radical future that shape the field of social studies, political theories, and social movements.

The differences in the forms of land rent in Poland and Ukraine are due to the specifics of the historical development of agrarian relations, the level of institutional support, and the condition of the land market in each country. The basis for this substantive analysis was the literature on the subject, primarily concerning the issue of land rent from a historical and contemporary perspective. Relevant legal acts and statistical data characterizing agriculture in the analyzed countries were also used. The aim of the conducted research and analysis was to identify and characterize the types of land rent in Poland and Ukraine. It was found that there are similarities and differences in the occurrence and perception of land rent between the analyzed countries. Not all types of land rent identified in Polish agriculture occur in Ukraine. In addition, those identified in Ukrainian agriculture are not always reflected in the same way in Polish conditions. This is related, among other things, to the historical conditions of the established agricultural system and Ukraine’s remaining outside the European Union. The comparative analysis of land rent types in Poland and Ukraine indicates a shared economic nature but significant differences in the mechanisms of their formation and distribution. Future research on land rents in Poland and Ukraine should be supported by empirical research and comparative analysis of the specific effects of the existence of individual types of rents.

Abstract Background Large, severe fires are increasing throughout frequent-fire forests of the western United States due to warming climatic conditions, as well as legacies of early twentieth century land-use practices and anthropogenic fire exclusion. Resource objective (RO) wildfires—where naturally ignited wildfires are allowed to burn to accomplish management objectives—are increasingly accepted due to relatively low cost and flexibility on lands where mechanical treatments are not allowed (e.g., designated wilderness) or economically feasible. We previously implemented a field study across a portion of the Mount Trumbull Wilderness to identify differences between historical (ca. 1870) and contemporary (1999) forest structural conditions following 100 + years of fire exclusion. The study area subsequently experienced two RO wildfires (2012 and 2019), which presented an opportunity to (1) assess how closely post-wildfire (2023) conditions approximated historical forest conditions and (2) evaluate how RO fires influenced patterns of tree mortality and regeneration. Results Reconstructed forest structure was made up of open stand conditions (density: 62 trees ha −1 ; basal area: 9 m 2 ha −1 ) with large ponderosa pines (quadratic mean diameter: 42 cm). By 1999, the site was dominated by closed-canopy stands with many small-diameter trees. In 2023, following the two RO wildfires, tree density, basal area, and canopy cover were significantly reduced (20–50%), and tree size significantly increased. Ponderosa pine regeneration density declined relative to pre-fire levels, whereas regeneration of sprouting hardwood species increased. About half of the old trees (i.e., pre-dating ca. 1870) that were alive in 1999 died by the end of the study period, likely due to effects of fire-caused injury and drought. High-severity patch sizes in each fire were relatively small (6.2–46.6 ha) and within the historical range of variability for southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems. The 2012 fire reduced remotely sensed fire severity in 2019. Conclusions Overall, RO fires shifted forest structure in a remote wilderness area toward open conditions that were historically present at the site, and likely reduced vulnerability to severe fire in the future. However, tree density remained six times higher than historical levels, and managers should consider allowing future RO wildfires to burn within the wilderness to further reduce tree density and accomplish ecological restoration goals.

This paper explores the intricate relationship between economic conditions and educational development in the Ajmer-Merwara region of Rajaputana during the colonial era. By examining historical data and records, this study aims to understand how economic factors influenced educational policies, access, and outcomes in this unique region administered directly by the British. The paper highlights the challenges and opportunities that arose from the economic environment and their lasting impact on the educational landscape. Objectives To examine the historical economic conditions of Ajmer-Merwara. To analyse the impact of these conditions on the region's educational development. To identify key factors that facilitated or hindered educational progress in response to economic changes.

Different Types of Household Vocabulary in the English Language and Their Structural Analysis Summary The vocabulary of a language consists of numerous words that develop according to social and historical conditions. Household vocabulary is studied through thematic and lexical-semantic classifications and reflects national and cultural features. English household vocabulary includes simple, derived, and compound words. New words arise from both internal and external sources and integrate into the lexicon. Household words are key lexical units expressing a people’s customs and culture. Keywords: Language vocabulary, household lexicon, lexical-semantic classification, new words, national culture

Walter Benjamin’s question about the historical conditions of perception takes on renewed urgency in a moment defined by political extremisms that rely on algorithmic modalities of image distribution. From an Althusserian perspective attentive to the ideological and subjective dimensions of the platformization of social life, this article advances the hypothesis that social media reinforces a tautological mode of organizing the sensible. This mode narrows subjective fields of vision and reshapes the very scene of political interlocution. The argument develops in three sections. The first defines the spatio-temporal dispositif of platformized images, drawing on Rancière’s critique of the dilemma between spectator passivity and activity. The second argues that the algorithmic montage of the visible is the cornerstone of a strategy for controlling subjective time, one that depends on scrolling as a practice of reception that produces a specific effect on subjects’ ideological and imaginary relation to the world. The third examines how trolling contributes to radicalized variants of neoliberalism. Trolls trigger a decentralization of punitivism and transform the structures of resentment through the evaluative stance promoted by platforms. The conclusion contends that the tautological shock of algorithmic montage shapes the nexus between communication and culture, extending into the formation of subjectivities. The very stage on which political interlocution unfolds is displaced toward tautology, leveling out the diverse and contradictory experiences of inhabiting a shared historical time.

The purpose of this article is to present the results of the development of educational activities in the national libraries of the Altai, Khakassia, Tyva, Buryatia, and Sakha (Yakutia) republics. The article examines the key prerequisites, factors, and conditions that have influenced the formation of libraries as centers of culture, education, and preservation of national heritage. It also covers the history, traditions, and innovations of the educational mission of regional national libraries.

Environmental factors, including climatic and habitat conditions, not only critically sustain ecosystem functioning and community stability but also serve as key determinants of species distributions. Research on the instant effects of environmental factors impacts remains limited. Although traditional methods, such as species distribution model, are commonly applied to assess environmental effects, they frequently overlook interspecific interactions that may determine distribution patterns. In this study, we employed a joint species distribution model and a generalized additive model to analyze the lagged responses of 2022-2023 geographic distribution patterns to historical habitat conditions (2001-2019) in four widespread high-elevation ungulates (Equus kiang, Pantholops hodgsonii, Procapra picticaudata, and Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau, defining this delayed response of animal distributions to environmental changes as the distribution lag effect (DLE). Our analysis revealed that while climate strongly influenced species distributions, habitat change drove most observed delays in distribution responses. In terms of community ecology, dispersed communities exhibited shorter time lags than concentrated groups. Analyses of lag duration revealed a 5-6-year DLE in high-altitude ungulate distributions. Our results provide valuable insights into sustainable alpine steppe management by highlighting the importance of maintaining habitat quality and mitigating resource competition over time. Furthermore, it offers guidance for the long-term conservation of high-altitude ungulate species.

Climate change will alter ecological dynamics, affecting the relative abundance of species. A primary challenge is whether and how to modify natural resource management practices to address these changes. We explored a model of a harvested fish population experiencing climate-driven changes in demography, finding that climate impacts impose a choice between management strategies that favor fishery yield or population biomass but not both. When climate caused a population’s carrying capacity to increase, or its productivity to decrease, a climate adaptive strategy relying upon this updated information maintained higher population biomass but produced similar or lower yield than fixed management pegged to historical conditions. In contrast, when climate caused a population’s carrying capacity to decrease, or its productivity to increase, a climate adaptive strategy produced greater yield but maintained lower population biomass. Both strategies prevented a population from becoming overfished (too small to achieve maximum yield), but the fixed management strategy could impose more excessive annual harvest rates (overfishing). These insights suggest climate adaptive management may not always outperform a fixed strategy. Yet in U.S. fisheries we found routine assessment of population status modifies demographic parameters, implicitly shifting management reference points that affect fishery yield and population biomass. Participatory processes can illuminate these impacts, creating opportunities to co-develop weightings for conservation and harvest objectives.

Scientific discussions about the spread of the Russian language in Central Asia in the pre-revolutionary period have acquired a noticeable politicized character in the last three decades. The “pendulum effect” in the assessment of the historical past, expressed in the transition from Soviet idealization to national criticism during the period of independent states, does not allow us to show the objective role of the Russian language in the political, economic and social life of Turkestan in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. A one-sided analysis creates difficulties in the implementation of a language strategy in modern Uzbekistan, where, in accordance with the Law “On the State Language”, all peoples of the republic have equal rights and opportunities. The purpose of this article is an objective and comprehensive analysis of the process of integration of the Russian language into all spheres of life of Uzbek society at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, which laid the foundation for large-scale processes in Soviet times. The contextualization method allows us to comprehensively reveal the historical, social and economic conditions for the development of language processes in a specific chronological period associated with the political tasks of the Russian state to develop the Turkestan region, which included the territory of modern Uzbekistan. On this basis, a number of discussion questions have been formulated related to the extent to which historical experience can be in demand at the present stage.

ABSTRACT This study assesses hydropower potential under historical and future climatic conditions to examine the impact of climate change on hydropower production, focusing on the three projects in the Kankai River Basin in eastern Nepal. We included six global climate models under CMIP6 scenarios after removing the biases through linear scaling for the projection of precipitation and temperature, which were forced into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to obtain the streamflow projections, which subsequently act as input for future hydropower potential assessment. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation up to 42.11% in SSP 585 and both maximum and minimum temperatures rising up to 29.78% in SSP 585 by the end of the century, compared with the baseline. The streamflow illustrates the increasing trend, marking the typical South Asian climate of monsoon peak flow with a substantial rise in the far future of SSP 585. The analysis of three distinct hydropower shows a decrease in average annual energy generation in the near future, while an expected increase is expected in the mid future and far future, with a more pronounced increase in the far future of SSP 585. The inter-annual fluctuations raise challenges in the operations, necessitating strategic planning and designing of infrastructures and sustainable energy management.

Urbanization, characterized by rapid construction land expansion, has transformed natural landscapes and significantly altered river networks in emerging metropolitan areas. Understanding the historical and current conditions of river networks is crucial for policy-making in sustainable urban development planning. Based on the topographic maps and remote sensing images, this study employs a multi-metric framework to investigate river network variations in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou metropolitan area, a rapidly urbanized plain with high-density river networks in the Yangtze River Delta, China. The results indicate a significant decline in the quantity of rivers, with the average river density in built-up areas falling from 2.70 km·km−2 in the 1960s to 1.95 km·km−2 in the 2010s, along with notable variations in the river network’s structure, complexity and its storage and regulation capacity. Moreover, shifts in the structural characteristics of river networks reveal that urbanization has a weaker impact on main streams but plays a dominant role in altering tributaries. The analysis demonstrates the extensive burial and modification of rivers across the metropolitan plains. These findings underscore the essence of incorporating river network protection and restoration into sustainable urban planning, providing insights for water resource management and resilient city development in rapidly urbanizing regions.

A sixth-century Italian émigré to Merovingian Francia, Venantius Fortunatus produced a diverse and voluminous corpus of both poetry and prose. Of his numerous compositions, few have been the subject of as much sustained scholarly attention as his poetic narrative of the mass conversion of the Jews of Clermont in 576. Modern scholars have probed and analyzed this poem for evidence of the historical conditions that prompted the conversion, as well as compared and contrasted Fortunatus’s verse account with the later prose narrative written by the poet’s primary source for the events of 576, Bishop Gregory of Tours. Surprisingly, in light of this sustained scholarly interest, scant attention has been devoted to how the poem’s depiction of contemporary Jews relates to the poet’s treatment of this religious minority elsewhere in his extensive corpus. A comparative examination of these references reveals that while the Jews were not a major preoccupation for Fortunatus, he sustained across a number of verse and hagiographical works a depiction of Jews as a community unrelentingly and actively hostile toward Christians, and whose profound anger could only be assuaged through Divine Grace, frequently as mediated through episcopal agents. While Fortunatus’s depiction of Jews drew on stock themes in the adversus Iudaeos tradition, and was by no means incongruous with similar depictions by his Gallo-Christian contemporaries, his skepticism of the ability of even holy men to penetrate Jewish obstinacy and fury through preaching alone was very much his own, and consequently offers a unique example of how an elite Christian believer sought to explain the continuing presence of a religious minority defiantly opposed to full integration in an ostensibly Christian society.

The development of digital technology has brought convenience in accessing religious information, including interpretations of the Qur'an. However, this convenience also presents serious challenges, particularly regarding the potential distortion of the meaning of jihad verses by the general public. Jihad verses have become a primary focus because they are often misunderstood and misused in contexts of violence or extremism, even though these verses possess complex historical backgrounds, conditions, and contexts. When such verses are quoted indiscriminately on digital platforms without adequate explanation, they can lead to serious social and ideological consequences. This study aims to examine the impact of digitalization on the interpretation of jihad verses, focusing on the forms of distortion, causal factors, and the resulting social impacts. Using a descriptive qualitative approach based on literature review and digital content observation, this research finds that jihad verses are frequently cited in a partial and literal manner, without regard to their historical context (asbāb al-nuzūl) or authoritative exegesis. The main contributing factors are low levels of digital religious literacy and the dominance of social media algorithms. This distortion fosters narrow fanaticism, potential radicalization, social polarization, and a negative image of Islam. Strengthening digital religious literacy and reinforcing the role of scholars in the digital da'wah ecosystem are necessary solutions.

This series of four uniquely designed presentations, consisting of two scholarly papers, a panel, and an interactive teaching engagement, provide synergy to both the 2025 ALISE Conference theme and the Innovative Pedagogy Special Interest Groups’s focus. Presenters offer dynamic vantage points to topics such as: Critical Discourse Analysis of Latine Identity Representation; Compassion Fatigue related to Pedagogy of Care; Community Archival Partnerships as Cultural Heritage Social Justice; and a Critical Race Storytelling Approach to Decolonize Library History Courses. Collectively the session meets at the intersection of information, innovation, compassion, and decolonization. Presentation 1 (Panel): Using Big Data to Redefine Identity: Challenging Deficit-Based Language Models in LIS Research Presenters: Michelle Rosquillo, North Carolina Central University; Odelys Morales Sierra, University of North Carolina at Greensboro; Ryan Smiley, University of North Carolina at Greensboro; Dr. LaTesha Velez, University of North Carolina at Greensboro This panel presents how Latine identities are represented in LIS research using big data analytics, critical discourse analysis, and ontological mapping. By identifying deficit vs. asset-based narratives, this study highlights biases in LIS literature and proposes culturally sustaining approaches to integrating Latine perspectives into LIS education. Through an examination of how colonial knowledge structures have shaped LIS discourse, the project interrogates entrenched narratives and offers strategies to center Latine knowledge systems. This presentation will showcase bibliometric trends and discourse patterns with the goal of providing actionable strategies for LIS educators, researchers, and practitioners seeking to foster representative information environments. Presentation 2 (Paper): The Paradox of Pedagogy of Care for Group Work in Asynchronous Courses Presenters: J.M. Shalani Dilinika, University of Pittsburgh; Africa S. Hands, University at Buffalo; Marcia Rapchak, University of Pittsburgh This paper presentation will explore how a pedagogy of care framework can be a decolonizing approach to group work in asynchronous, online courses. Using recent experiences of instructing students through a semester-long group project, this presentation considers the squishiness of practicing pedagogies of care, for both students and faculty. Pedagogies of care intend to generate student-centered learning experiences that deconstruct some hierarchies in education and emphasize empathetic instruction. However, as will be shared during this presentation, the reality of this well-intentioned practice is not without concerns (such as compassion fatigue and redirected emotional labor) that must be examined. Presentation 3 (Interactive Engagement): FOCAS-ing on Community Archival Partnership Pedagogy Presenters: Kaitlyn Griffith, Dominican University; Vanessa Irvin, East Carolina University; Berlin Loa, University of Arizona; Edith Mendez, Dominican University; Vanessa Reyes, East Carolina University Faculty Organizing for Community Archives Support (FOCAS) is a three-year, nine-university Mellon (Public Knowledge) funded collaborative project focused on supporting and co-creating archives with community partners. The grant also supports curricular and pedagogical development rooted in fieldwork, with funded student interns directly liaising with community archives. This interactive session, led by three university grantees, highlights (Year-1) innovative pedagogical strategies that respond to shifting community needs and the urgency of memory work in politically volatile times. FOCAS reimagines archival education by emphasizing social justice, decoloniality, and adaptability—challenging traditional archival norms and centering community-led evolving approaches to preserve stories that may be forgotten, obscured, or overlooked." Presentation 4 (Paper): Counter-storytelling in Library History Course Development Presenter: Eric Ely, University of Central Missouri This proposal explores the use of counter storytelling as a pedagogical tool in Library and Information Science (LIS) education to decolonize traditional library history courses. Rooted in Critical Race Theory (CRT), counter storytelling amplifies marginalized voices and challenges dominant narratives. The replacement of traditional research papers with a creative assignment in which students conduct historical research and craft fictional stories reflecting historical social conditions is explained. Emphasizing cultural humility, the assignment aims to avoid harm and promote social justice. The proposal addresses decolonial contexts by decolonizing curriculum, research methods, information practices, and professional practice, fostering inclusive and equitable learning environments. Additional Acknowledgement: Dr. Paria Aria made significant contributions to the planning and organizing of the Innovative Pedagogy Special Interest Group’s 2025 presentations.

With the continuous progress and development of the times, the awakening of female consciousness and the struggles of women from all social strata have continued to advance. Increasing attention is being directed toward the awakening of women, and a growing number of literary and artistic works have begun to focus on this theme, portraying diverse, multidimensional, and richly nuanced female characters. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of three distinct female characters inThunderstorm, exploring the awakening and resistance of female consciousness reflected in the work against the backdrop of its story and historical context. The differences in age, life experiences, personality, and cognition among these three women determine the varying degrees and forms of their awakening. By examining these three female characters, this study investigates the differences in the awakening of female consciousness across social classes and age groups under the historical conditions of the time. The awakening and resistance of female consciousness inThunderstormare complex manifestations that span multiple perspectives, levels, and social classes, rather than being concentrated in a single individual or event. Through a comprehensive analysis and study of the awakening and resistance of female consciousness inThunderstorm, this paper aims to inspire reflections on the development of contemporary female consciousness and contribute to the exploration of solutions to the challenges faced by modern women.

With the continuous progress and development of the times, the awakening of female consciousness and the struggles of women from all social strata have continued to advance. Increasing attention is being directed toward the awakening of women, and a growing number of literary and artistic works have begun to focus on this theme, portraying diverse, multidimensional, and richly nuanced female characters. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of three distinct female characters inThunderstorm, exploring the awakening and resistance of female consciousness reflected in the work against the backdrop of its story and historical context. The differences in age, life experiences, personality, and cognition among these three women determine the varying degrees and forms of their awakening. By examining these three female characters, this study investigates the differences in the awakening of female consciousness across social classes and age groups under the historical conditions of the time. The awakening and resistance of female consciousness inThunderstormare complex manifestations that span multiple perspectives, levels, and social classes, rather than being concentrated in a single individual or event. Through a comprehensive analysis and study of the awakening and resistance of female consciousness inThunderstorm, this paper aims to inspire reflections on the development of contemporary female consciousness and contribute to the exploration of solutions to the challenges faced by modern women.