Hindu Kush Himalayan Research Articles

CHANGING MOUNTAIN PASTORALISM AND ITS IMPACTS IN THE HINDU KUSH HIMALAYAN REGION: THE CASE OF KUSHUM, PAKISTAN

Pastoralism in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan has undergone significant sociocultural, economic and ecological changes over the last three decades. The economic value of mountain pastoralism has been underestimated and ignored, leading to the loss of Indigenous ethnomedicinal knowledge and threatening food and livelihood security in the eastern Hindu Kush region. This study explores the changes and transformations in mountain pastoralism and their societal impacts, focusing on the loss of Indigenous ethnomedicinal knowledge, traditional skills, food security and livelihood sustainability. Primary data were collected through extensive field surveys conducted from 2010 to 2023. Secondary data were obtained from census reports, rural settlement records, the Food Department of Lower and Upper Chitral districts and the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) Peshawar. The study found significant changes and transformations in various aspects of mountain pastoralism, including a decrease in livestock population, alterations in grazing arrangements, the abandonment of high-pasturing practices and the loss of Indigenous ethnomedicinal knowledge and skills. Reduced livestock population causes shortage of meat, milk and other dairy products. Insufficient self-provision of livestock products has led to heavy dependence on external foodstuff on the market, which has raised the prices of food items to unaffordable levels, leading to food insecurity. Further, this is the first ever study to document ethnomedicinal Indigenous information about 61 plants species and one mineral and their therapeutic application. It is inferred that changes in mountain pastoralism underlay the swift erosion of traditional ethnomedicinal knowledge. Finally, this study provides nuanced insights for conservation of medicinal flora and establishes a foundational framework for further scientific investigations in phytochemistry and ethnopharmacology to evaluate novel active ingredients for potential drug discovery within the area. The findings will be useful for policymakers and practitioners in designing effective programmes and policies to decrease vulnerability and enhance food and livelihood security. This article was published open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 licence: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ .

Assessing the role of regional characteristics in estimating the volume of glacial lakes in the upper Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra basins, Hindu Kush Himalaya

Assessing the role of regional characteristics in estimating the volume of glacial lakes in the upper Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra basins, Hindu Kush Himalaya

Earthquake Risk Severity and Urgent Need for Disaster Management in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is located on the Eurasian tectonic plate’s edge, a highly seismically active region. It is bordered by the northern boundary of the Indian plate and influenced by the collisional Arabian plate to the south. The Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains in Afghanistan are part of the western extension of the Himalayan orogeny and have been uplifted and sheared by the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates. These tectonic activities have generated numerous active deep faults across the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, many of which intersect Afghanistan, resulting in frequent high-magnitude earthquakes. This tectonic interaction produces ground shaking of varying intensity, from high to moderate and low, with the epicenters often located in the northeast and extending southwest across the country. This study maps Afghanistan’s tectonic structures, identifying the most active geological faults and regions with heightened seismicity. Historical earthquake data were reviewed, and recent destructive events were incorporated into the national earthquake dataset to improve disaster management strategies. Additionally, the study addresses earthquake hazards related to building and infrastructure design, offering potential solutions and directions to mitigate risks to life and property.

Determinants of job satisfaction and motivation among community forest workers: insights from the Hindu Kush Himalaya, Pakistan

ABSTRACT To restore the forest landscape and improve livelihoods, the Government of Pakistan has implemented significant efforts under the Billion Tree Afforestation Project, with Community Forest Workers playing a key role. This study explores the factors influencing job satisfaction and motivation among these workers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Data were collected through a survey of 362 workers and 15 interviews with village elders. The results show that low wages and agricultural landholdings reduce job satisfaction, while adequate training, timely funding for projects, prompt salary payments, and strong cooperation from stakeholders improve it. Additionally, respectful treatment by forest department staff enhances job satisfaction, while financial struggles, poor communication, and a lack of educational programmes negatively affect it. Our findings emphasise the need for the government to prioritise worker training, motivation, and foster better stakeholder collaboration to effectively involve workers in landscape restoration efforts.

Localized environmental variability within the Hindukush-Himalayan region of Pakistan

The Hindukush-Himalayan (HKH) region, known for its eco-environmental importance, has been witnessing transformations in recent years governed by factors such as climate variability, land use shifts, and population growth. These changes have profound implications for regional sustainability, water resources, and livelihood. This study attempts to explore the spatial and temporal variability in selected environmental parameters including land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation patterns, and normalized difference snow index (NDSI), and land use land cover (LULC) from 1990 to 2022 using Landsat imageries (30 m spatial resolution), CHIRPS precipitation data at 0.05° spatial resolution. The study area spans 32,000 km2 covering two major political/administrative divisions (Malakand and Hazara) in the HKH region of Pakistan. The study area was selected primarily because of the unprecedented changes over the last three decades. For detailed spatial analysis, the area was divided into five elevation zones and LST, NDVI, NDSI, and LULC analyses were conducted utilizing primarily the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and climate engine. The study results revealed a notable rise in LST in the lowest elevation zone. The NDVI and LULC analyses revealed a noticeable decline in vegetation cover from 5988 km2 in 1990, to 4225 km2 by 2010, followed by a growth to 7669 km2 in 2022, since 2010 after the launching of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project (BTTAP) in 2013. Likewise, the precipitation patterns exhibit transitioning from low to high precipitation levels. However, the most notable finding of the study is the marked decline in snow covered area 7000 km2 to 3800 km2 between 1990 and 2022.

Forest fire emission estimates over South Asia using Suomi-NPP VIIRS-based thermal anomalies and emission inventory

Forest fire emission estimates over South Asia using Suomi-NPP VIIRS-based thermal anomalies and emission inventory

Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin

Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin

Glacier-influenced hydrological regimes in the Afghanistan Hindu Kush Himalaya under current and future climate

ABSTRACT Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are important freshwater resources. Glacier recession may lead to a significant decrease in summer runoff. This study focuses on Afghanistan in the western Himalayas with an arid to semi-arid climate, where, despite strong societal and ecosystem dependance upon mountain water resources, the contribution of glacier melt is poorly known. This study used a new conceptual precipitation and ice melt-runoff model to assess current and future streamflow, taking into account the effects of debris-covered ice. Three catchments with varying glacier cover are considered: Sust (4,609 km2, 15.6% glacier cover) in eastern Afghanistan; the Taqchakhana (264.4 km2 area, 2.8% glacier cover) in northern Afghanistan; and the Bamyan (325.3 km2, 0.7% glacier cover) in central Afghanistan. Results identified different annual hydrological regimes, with glacier runoff dominating Sust (76%), rain and snow runoff dominating Taqchakhana (50%), and baseflow dominating Bamyan (61%). Under RCP 2.6, glacier runoff in Sust and Taqchakhana is expected to increase until 2050, then decline as temperatures stabilize; under RCP 8.5, a more significant increase is projected, while runoff in Bamyan will decrease throughout the century. Catchments may experience a peak water phase due to both temperature effects and progressively diminishing size of glaciers.

Governance framework for access and benefit sharing in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

AbstractThe Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) are of global significance, characterised by immense ecological, cultural, and biological importance spanning over eight South Asian countries. The region is home to a vast repository of genetic resources (GR) and traditional knowledge (TK) that transcend geopolitical boundaries, rendering them prone to uncompensated bioprospecting. The transboundary nature of these resources presents challenges for ensuring fair and equitable sharing of benefits and preventing biopiracy. To safeguard biodiversity and protect the interests of local communities, effective access and benefit sharing (ABS) measures need to be put in place. Therefore collaborative efforts of the countries in the region are crucial. This paper tries to elucidate the complexities inherent to the region and analyse the existing international and national legal framework to address ABS and collaboration between the countries when it comes to transboundary GR and associated TK. An attempt is also made to identify a possible solution within the current legal regime under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) framework.

On people's perceptions of climate change and its impacts in a hotspot of global warming.

The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is a global hotspot for climate change and highly vulnerable to its direct and indirect impacts. Understanding people's perception of climate change is crucial for effective adaptation strategies. We conducted a study by using quantitative (Household survey, n = 660) and qualitative data collection tools (Focus group discussion, n = 12; In-depth interviews, n = 27) in central Nepal encompassing three altitudinal regions: Lowland (<1000 m amsl; Terai region), Midland (1000-1500 m amsl; hilly region) and Highland (1500-2100 m amsl; mountainous region). We analyzed 37 years (1981-2017) of climatic data from respective districts (Lowland: Chitwan, Dhading; Midland: Kathmandu, Lalitpur; Highland: Nuwakot, Rasuwa). People's perception was compared with climate extreme indices measured along these regions and evaluated if they accurately recognized the impacts on the environment and human health. Our findings show significant climate changes, including rising summer temperature, region-specific winter temperatures and extended monsoon seasons in Nepal. Participants in our study accurately perceived these trends but misperceived heavy precipitation patterns. Reported impacts are rise in crop diseases, human diseases, vector expansion and climate induced disasters like floods, landslides, and water resource depletion, with perception accuracy varying by region. These insights highlight the importance of understanding regional and cross-regional perceptions in relation to climate data in order to develop tailored climate adaptation strategies. Policymakers can use this information to establish region-specific educational and communication initiatives, addressing communities' distinctive vulnerabilities and needs across diverse landscapes. Such approaches can enhance equitable and effective climate resilience in subtropical to alpine regions.

Assessment of forest cover dynamics for the detection of deforestation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using geospatial and machine learning approaches

Assessment of forest cover dynamics for the detection of deforestation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using geospatial and machine learning approaches

Rejuvenation of the Springs in the Hindu Kush Himalayas Through Transdisciplinary Approaches—A Review

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, known as the “water tower of the world,” is experiencing severe water scarcity due to declining discharge of spring water across the HKH region. This decline is driven by climate change, unsustainable human activities, and rising water demand, leading to significant impacts on rural agriculture, urban migration, and socio-economic stability. This expansive review judiciously combines both the researchers’ experiences and a traditional literature review. This review investigates the factors behind reduced spring discharge and advocates for a transdisciplinary approach to address the issue. It stresses integrating scientific knowledge with community-based interventions, recognizing that water management involves not just technical solutions but also human values, behaviors, and political considerations. The paper explores the benefits of public–private partnerships (PPPs) and participatory approaches for large-scale spring rejuvenation. By combining the strengths of both sectors and engaging local communities, sustainable spring water management can be achieved through collaborative and inclusive strategies. It also highlights the need for capacity development and knowledge transfer, including training local hydrogeologists, mapping recharge areas, and implementing sustainable land use practices. In summary, the review offers insights and recommendations for tackling declining spring discharge in the HKH region. By promoting a transdisciplinary, community-centric approach, it aims to support policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in ensuring the sustainable management of water resources and contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The Horizon of the Third Pole: Mapping future scenarios and strategic responses

The Third Pole region, comprising the vast glaciers and water systems of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), is emerging as a key indicator of global climate change. Often referred to as the “Water Tower of Asia,” it sustains nearly 2 billion people through its water resources, yet the region is experiencing unprecedented changes. This review examines the region's evolving climate dynamics, focusing on key climate scenarios and potential strategic responses. The paper synthesizes data from the latest climate models, regional governance frameworks, and international climate policy developments to explore future pathways for the Third Pole. It also delves into the region's socio-economic vulnerabilities, water security challenges, and the geopolitical complexities of transboundary environmental governance. Our findings emphasize the need for proactive adaptation strategies, transboundary cooperation, and innovative policy mechanisms to mitigate climate risks. The review provides a roadmap for policymakers, scientists, and regional stakeholders to navigate the looming environmental crises, highlighting pathways that could forge a resilient future for the Third Pole.

Climate change scenarios predict reduction in suitable habitats and range shifts for Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Berk.) in Hindu Kush Himalaya

Climate change scenarios predict reduction in suitable habitats and range shifts for Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Berk.) in Hindu Kush Himalaya

HydroSAR: A Cloud-Based Service for the Monitoring of Inundation Events in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the most flood-prone regions in the world, yet heavy cloud cover and limited in situ observations have hampered efforts to monitor the impact of heavy rainfall, flooding, and inundation during severe weather events. This paper introduces HydroSAR, a Sentinel-1 SAR-based hazard monitoring service which was co-developed with in-region partners to provide year-round, low-latency weather hazard information across the HKH. This paper describes the end user-focused concept and overall design of the HydroSAR service. It introduces the main processing algorithms behind HydroSAR’s broad product portfolio, which includes qualitative visual layers as well as quantitative products measuring the surface water extent and water depth. We summarize the cloud-based implementation of the developed service, which provides the capability to scale automatically with the event size. A performance assessment of our quantitative algorithms is described, demonstrating the capabilities to map the flood extent and water depth with an accuracy of &gt;90% and &lt;1 m, respectively. An application of the HydroSAR service to the 2023 South Asia monsoon seasons showed that monsoon floods peaked near 6 August 2023 and covered 11.6% of Bangladesh in water. At the peak of the flood season, nearly 13.5% of Bangladesh’s agriculture areas were affected.

Evaluating the dynamics of climate and anticipated snow cover changes on the hydrological response of rivers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region

ABSTRACT The research aims to assess the interplay between climate dynamics and snow cover changes, informing water resource management. Utilizing the SWAT model with historical and future data, hydrological responses in the Marshyangdi River Basin are examined. The model's performance confirms its ability to simulate runoff components effectively. Projections indicate a concerning decrease in snow cover area for 2030, 2050, and 2090, with declines of 2.03, 4.03, and 14.20%, respectively, attributed to global warming and human activities. Isolating climate change reveals substantial increases in stream flow, notably pre-monsoon surges under different scenarios, with projected increments of 84 and 130% under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Analysis of snow cover impact shows a slight increase in annual stream flow, with a 3.54% anticipated decrease during the post-monsoon period, raising concerns for water availability in the dry season. Comparing both impacts reveals no significant differences in stream flow or precipitation. Annual stream flow increases under different scenarios, driven by precipitation, with varying impacts. Climate change emerges as the dominant driver, affecting surface runoff, groundwater, and evapotranspiration. This research unravels complex relationships between climate change, snow cover, and hydrological responses, providing valuable insights for water resource management in mountainous regions like the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

Spatiotemporal variation and teleconnections of extreme precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin: insights for natural hazard assessment

ABSTRACT The study investigates trends and teleconnections of extreme precipitation events in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) within the Indian region, part of the crucial geo-ecological Hindu Kush Himalayan Mountain system. Utilizing high-resolution (10km) HAR data from 2002 to 2013, we analyzed 11 indices established by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to observe variations in extreme precipitation at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results show an increase in dry and wet extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, increased monsoon precipitation, and a shift of winter precipitation, increasing continuous dry days. Using APHRODITE daily (0.25°) data from 1952 to 2014, continuous wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis indicate significant periodicities and correlations with large-scale climate anomalies such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wavelet coherence analysis reveals that monthly extreme precipitation events significantly correlate with ENSO at 3-5 years periodicity, while annual extremes show significant coherence with NAO at 8-10 years and over 16 years periodicities. The study highlights the impact of global climate change on regional precipitation and the need for adaptive water management policies to mitigate flood risks during the rainy season and address water scarcity in the dry season.

Livelihood impacts of community-based forest landscape restoration in the Hindu Kush Himalaya, Pakistan

Over the past decade, community-based forest landscape restoration (FLR) has gained policy attention in Pakistan. However, there is a lack of information on how FLR affects the livelihood capital of mountain communities. To fill this gap, this study investigated the livelihood impacts of FLR in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan. To understand the role of FLR in livelihood restoration, we utilized focus group discussions (FGDs) and field observations. The study revealed that community members perceived various impacts of FLR on their livelihood assets. FLR helped restore the ecology, improved access to food, education, and health facilities, developed infrastructure, and initiated ecotourism in the study area. FLR activities were executed through several institutions, particularly extension services, Village Development Committees (VDCs), and Joint Forest Management Committees (JFMCs), through the process of equity, accountability, and collaboration. We recommend continuing the implementation of FLR initiatives through extension services to maximize positive impacts on social, natural, human, financial, and physical capitals.

Empowering young farmers' voices in climate change extension programs: An in-depth analysis of decision-making dynamics and social media engagement

Empowering young farmers' voices in climate change extension programs: An in-depth analysis of decision-making dynamics and social media engagement

Comparative Analysis of Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques

The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has led to their widespread application in various domains, including water resources. However, snowmelt modeling remains an area that has not been extensively explored. In this study, we propose a state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning sequential model, leveraging a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), for snowmelt forecasting of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we conducted a comparative analysis with other popular models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer models. Furthermore, nested cross-validation (CV) was used with five outer folds and three inner folds, and hyperparameter tuning was performed on the inner folds. To evaluate the performance of the model, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), R square (R2), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were computed for each outer fold. The average metrics revealed that the TCN outperformed the other models, with an average MAE of 0.011, RMSE of 0.023, R2 of 0.991, KGE of 0.992, and NSE of 0.991 for one-day forecasts of streamflow. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning model as compared to traditional machine learning approaches for snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting. Moreover, the superior performance of this TCN highlights its potential as a promising deep learning model for similar hydrological applications.