Abstract Background: The Penelope-B trial did not show improvement in invasive disease-free survival (iDFS) with the addition of palbociclib to endocrine therapy (ET) in patients with high-risk early breast cancer (BC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). Biomarkers may be able to identify subgroups of patients deriving benefit from Palbociclib and guide future studies. Estrogen-receptor (ER), progesterone-receptor (PgR) and Ki-67 might be helpful in identifying patients benefiting from palbociclib. Concordantly, tumors with elevated expression of Cyclin D1 and phosphorylated retinoblastoma protein (phospho-RB) may harbor more dependency on CDK4/6 and thus higher sensitivity to palbociclib. Methods: The percentage of positive ER and PgR cells and Ki-67 assessed in surgical specimens after NACT were combined to obtain the immunohistochemical score 3 (IHC3, Cuzick et al JCO 2011, low vs high based on the median IHC3 value). Cyclin D1 and phospho-RB Ser 807/811 immunoreactive (phospho-RB) scores were analyzed in residual tumors after NACT (range 0-12 each). Proportional hazard regression model was used to assess the predictive and prognostic value of IHC3 and treatment on iDFS. Subgroup analysis was performed according to BC intrinsic subtypes (luminal-A/normal-like, luminal-B/HER2-enriched/basal) and HER2-status (HER2 0, HER2 low). Cox/Fine-Gray regression was used to define the predictive and prognostic value of CyclinD1 (≤1, >1), phospho-RB (≤2, >2) as dichotomized and continuous variables on iDFS, distant DFS (DDFS), locoregional invasive recurrence-free interval (LRRFI) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate analyses (MVA) were adjusted for age (≤50 vs >50), Ki-67 (≤15 vs >15), region (non-Asian vs Asian), ypN (ypN0-1 vs ypN2-3), risk status (CPS-EG=2 ypN+ vs ≥3), cT (cT1-2 vs cT3-4), ypT (ypT0-2 vs ypT3-4), and grade (G1-2 vs G3). The MVA for IHC3 includes all the covariates above except Ki-67. p< 0.05 was defined as statistically significant. Results: Data for ER, PgR, Ki-67, HER2, Cyclin D1 and phospho-RB were available for 1250 patients. Overall, 98.9% of the patients had ER+ tumors, 75.0% PgR+, 52.2% had HER2 low, 25.5% Ki-67>15, 50% had IHC3 score higher than median, 93.9% had Cyclin D1 >1, 57.8% had phospho-RB >2. Patients with IHC3 score high had a worse iDFS compared to patients with IHC3 score low (MVA HR 2.28 95%CI (1.78-2.91), p< 0.0001). Patients with luminal-A/normal-like tumors and IHC3 low had an improved iDFS with the addition of palbociclib to ET (MVA HR 0.35 95%CI (0.14-0.90), test for interaction p=0.01). No difference was observed according to HER2 status. Cyclin D1>1 has no predictive value but is prognostic for better iDFS (MVA HR 0.62 95%CI (0.41-0.94), p=0.023), LRRFI (MVA HR 0.30 95%CI (0.15-0.63), p=0.001) and OS (MVA HR 0.50 95%CI (0.28-0.89), p=0.019). Similar results were obtained when Cyclin D1 was analysed as a continuous variable. Phospho-RB had neither predictive nor prognostic value. Phospho-RB highly correlates with Ki-67 (p< 0.001, Spearman correlation 0.248). Conclusions: Patients with high Cyclin D1 expression had a favorable prognosis independent of treatment arm, but patients with luminal-A/normal-like tumors and IHC3 low after NACT had an improved outcome when receiving palbociclib in addition to adjuvant ET. Theses exploratory studies suggest specific signatures/phenotypes could predict benefit from Palbociclib in high-risk early breast cancer. Citation Format: Erik S. Knudsen, Sivaramakrishna Rachakonda, Frederik Marmé, Miguel Martín, Michael Untch, Hervé R. Bonnefoi, Wolfgang D. Schmitt, Sung-Bae Kim, Harry D. Bear, Agnieszka Witkiewicz, Seock-Ah Im, Angela DeMichele, Laura Van’t Veer, Nicole McCarthy, Bruno V. Sinn, Karen Gelmon, José Ángel García-Sáenz, Catherine M. Kelly, Toralf Reimer, Nicholas Turner, Federico Rojo, Martin Filipits, Peter A. Fasching, Christian Schem, Lesley-Ann Martin, Yuan Liu, Masakazu Toi, Hope Rugo, Michael Gnant, Andreas Makris, Jenny Furlanetto, Karsten Weber, Carsten Denkert, Sibylle Loibl. Immunohistochemical markers and determinants of clinical response in the Penelope-B trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PD17-06.
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