High Surge Research Articles

Effect of additive particle size on degradation behavior of ZnO varistors under high current surges

Effect of additive particle size on degradation behavior of ZnO varistors under high current surges

Modelling and Evalaution of the Bidirectional Surge Current Robustness of Si(-IGBT and -Diode), SiC(-MOSFETs and -JFET) and GaN(-HEMTs) Devices

This paper will evaluate the surge current robustness of different devices in relation to the active short circuit (ASC). For the purposes of this study, a Si IGBT and its diode, two SiC MOSFETs with different voltage ratings, a SiC JFET, and three GaN HEMTs will be compared. For the GaN devices, a eMode, a dMode, and a cascode device are employed. With the exception of the Si diode, all devices exhibited a current saturation effect. This saturation will result in significant losses and, ultimately, a thermal defect. For all devices, a safe operating area (SOA) criterion is established. For the SiC and GaN devices, the saturation voltage can be employed to define the safe operating area (SOA) criterion. In this context, two on-state resistance models will be defined for these devices. One is solely temperature-dependent, while the other also considers current saturation. Consequently, the saturation voltage and the on-resistance model represent a straightforward methodology for evaluating the ASC robustness of the devices. For all devices, a recommendation for a loss model and SOA criterion will be provided. Finally, the surge current robustness of all devices is compared. The Si, SiC and GaN devices exhibit comparable high surge current robustness in the application, with the exception of the GaN eMode, which is susceptible to strong current saturation.

Combining statistical and hydrodynamic models to assess compound flood hazards from rainfall and storm surge: a case study of Shanghai

Abstract. Coastal regions have experienced significant environmental changes and increased vulnerability to floods caused by the combined effect of multiple flood drivers such as storm surge, heavy rainfall and river discharge, i.e., compound floods. Hence, for a sustainable development of coastal cities, it is necessary to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics and future trends of compound flood hazard. While the statistical dependence between flood drivers, i.e., rainfall and storm surges, has been extensively studied, the sensitivity of the inundated areas to the relative timing of a driver's individual peaks is less understood and location dependent. To fill this gap, here we propose a framework combining a statistical dependence model for compound event definition and a hydrodynamic model to assess inundation maps of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall during typhoon season in Shanghai. First, we determine the severity of the joint design event, i.e., peak surge and precipitation, based on the copula model. Second, we use the same frequency amplification (SFA) method to transform the design event values in hourly time series so that they represent boundary conditions to force hydrodynamic models. Third, we assess the sensitivity of inundation maps to the time lag between storm surge peak and rainfall. Finally, we define flood zones based on the primary flood driver, and we delineate flood zones under the worst compound flood scenario. The study highlights that the temporal delay between storm surge and rainfall plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of flooding events. More specifically, that the peak rainfall occurs 2 h before the peak storm surge would cause the deepest average cumulative inundation depth. At the same time, the results show that in Shanghai surge is the primary flood driver. High storm surge at the eastern part of the city (Wusongkou tidal gauge) propagates upstream in the Huangpu River, resulting in fluvial flooding in Shanghai city center and several surrounding districts. This calls for a better fluvial flooding control system hinging on the backwater effect during high surge in the upper and middle Huangpu River and in the newly added urbanized areas to ensure flood resilience. The proposed framework is useful to evaluate and predict flood hazard in coastal cities, and the results can provide guidance for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.

Non-Destructive Analysis of Pb-Acid Battery Positive Plates, Based on Neutron Tomography

Lead-acid batteries (LABs) are one of the first rechargeable batteries. Historically used for backup power during the early public electricity network, LABs now hold a global market share of approximately 50%, mainly in automotive applications and energy reserves for telecommunication and data networks. Their low energy density and high surge current make them suitable for high-current, in-time applications. The LAB electrochemical cell consists of PbO2 as the positive electrode, metallic Pb as the negative electrode, and H2SO4 as the electrolyte.The composition of the positive electrode active material (PAM) involves mixtures of α- and β-PbO2 and an amorphous gel phase of Pb(IV) oxy-hydroxides, determining the PAM's functional properties. The hydrated Pb(IV) oxy-hydroxide is the electrochemically active phase, conducting ions but not electrons. The mechanical consistency of the PAM relies on α-PbO2, acting as a structural binder, while β-PbO2 provides electronic conductivity. LAB performance is influenced by the proportions of α and β crystalline zones. Jointly, α - and β -PbO2 act as a Pb(IV) reservoir for reduction, occurring through the gel phase during discharge. Together, α- and β-PbO2 function as a reservoir for Pb(IV) reduction, a process that takes place through the gel phase during discharge in lead-acid batteries (LABs). These two crystalline phases, α- and β-PbO2, reform from the gel phase during charging, and their proportions depend on the specifics of the charging process and the material state. Consequently, the relative amounts and distribution of α and β crystalline zones play a crucial role in influencing the overall performance of LABs.In the present investigation, we propose, for the first time, an ex situ NT investigation of intact PPs, endeavouring to assess the internal structure of the PAM (pore formation) and spine/PAM decohesion of real battery electrodes – fabricated with two alternative metallurgical methods (punching P and gravity casting G) – subjected to harsh electrochemical testing conditions, representative of recharge abuse. Our study is complemented by X-ray radiography - aimed at pinpointing spine and PAM cracking – and cross-sectional SEM imaging aimed at disclosing details with spine/PAM interface: grid shape variation, corrosion depth, mode and mechanism, corrosion layer nature and thickness.The synergic effect of these measurments enable a complete understanding and tracking of the PPs degradation mechanism : (i) NT offered a 3D quantitative and qualitative assessment of PAM porosity ,spine/PAM decohesions, and highly attenuating regions. Aging led to pore growth, with G electrodes displaying more extensive cracking. Variations in porosity distribution between P and G electrodes is observed. Hydrogenated gel distribution differed between electrode types and with aging. (ii) XR provided a non-destructive grid-scale overview. P electrodes exhibited limited defects, while G electrodes showed extensive spine issues. Corrosion progression differed from local SEM observations (iii) in which corrosion is explored at the spine/PAM interface, revealing no clear correlation between current density and corrosion. Representative micrographs for P and G electrodes were shared.The combination of these technique enable a complete characterization of positive plate degradation,.The methodical use of NT holds the potential to establish a comprehensive morpho chemical knowledge base for comprehending the manufacturing and aging processes of lead-acid battery electrodes directly visualization of the 3D arrangement of the hydrogen-containing electroactive amorphous phase, is a crucial metric for assessing the state of health (SOH) that is typically challenging to access experimentally This approach, coupled with in operando capabilities, relies on the quantitative examination of functionally significant features and their changes throughout the aging process. Figure 1

The sensitivity analysis using adjoint method in numerical modeling of electric potential distribution of the transmission lines

AbstractThis paper proposes a new methodology for sensitivity analysis evaluation, fast and with high precision of the electric potential distribution near the transmission lines (TL's). The TL is modeled by the finite element method and the sensitivity of the cable positions is obtained using the adjoint method. The sensitivity of the objective function during the optimization process by using methods based on gradient information is obtained by using the adjoint method. The exact sensitivity obtained by the adjoint method concerning the numeric model of the TL's results in new geometries of the bundles conductors with high surge impedance loading. These geometries are not possible to get using analytic models. The sensitivities of a large number of conductors by phase are obtained with high precision and very low computational cost using adjoint sensitivities, which are independent of the number of design variables. The central finite difference method is used to calculate the sensitivities and to validate the adjoint method. With this methodology, the FEM model of the TL can be used during the optimization process without compromising the required computational processing time.

Investigation of compound occurrence of storm surge and river flood in Mikawa Bay, Japan, using typhoon track ensemble experiments

The risk of high river flow and peak storm surge superimposing in the estuary of small-and medium-sized rivers can be more severe during typhoon landfalls than at other times. In this study, 30 cases of typhoon track ensemble experiments for five rivers in Mikawa Bay, Japan, were evaluated using an atmospheric-river-ocean model. The results showed that storm surges coincided with high river flows when typhoons crossed the western side of Mikawa Bay, with the highest potential observed when typhoons passed northwest of the Bay. The average time discrepancy for the five rivers between the storm surge occurrence and increased river flow in the minimum time difference case was 48 min at the river mouth. Distinct trends in the time difference between a storm surge and river flow were observed for each river mouth. The order of time differences corresponded to the drainage area scale: Toyo (188 min), Umeda (112 min), Otowa (114 min), Sana (96 min), and Yagyu (88 min). Time difference trends also varied based on the distance between the typhoon center and each river mouth. For Toyo River, storm surges and high river flows did not substantially overlap, regardless of distance. However, for medium-and small-sized rivers, the time difference increased proportionally with the distance from the typhoon. The Yagyu River showed the highest potential for compound occurrence of a storm surge and river flood because of the synchronization of storm surge peaks and high river flow peaks, with a time difference of 1–2 h for small-and medium-sized rivers within 100 km2 of the basin.

Aerodynamic performance enhancement of centrifugal compressor using numerical techniques

Background Centrifugal compressors are dynamic machines utilizing a rotating impeller, efficiently accelerate incoming gases, transforming kinetic energy into pressure energy for compression. They serve a wide range of industries, including air conditioning, refrigeration, gas turbines, industrial processes, and applications such as air compression, gas transportation, and petrochemicals, demonstrating their versatility. Designing a centrifugal compressor poses challenges related to achieving high aerodynamic efficiency, surge and choke control, material selection, rotor dynamics, cavitation, erosion, and addressing environmental considerations while balancing costs. Optimizing maintenance, reliability, and energy efficiency are essential aspects of the design process. Methods The primary objective of this research is to comprehensively investigate and improve the aerodynamic performance of centrifugal compressors. To accomplish this, a comprehensive investigation of variables such as blade number and hub diameter, along with various turbulence models will be conducted. This approach will leverage numerical techniques to fill the significant gaps in the current literature regarding centrifugal compressor design and optimization. The study encompasses the evaluation of two turbulence models, namely Shear Stress Transport and K-epsilon. Furthermore, it delves into the fine-tuning of blade geometry, including variations in blade number and hub diameter, aiming to refine the design for optimal performance. Extensive analyses using Ansys CFX encompass key variables such as Pressure, Mach Number, Density, Velocity, Turbulence Kinetic Energy, and Temperature. Results Notably, the optimized pressure profile yielded remarkable results, achieving a substantial 36% improvement, demonstrating the tangible benefits of these design enhancements. Conclusion The outcomes of this research hold significant utility for engineers, manufacturers, and regulatory bodies, offering invaluable insights and guidance to enhance compressor performance and efficiency.

Experimental And Numerical Inter-Comparison On Green And Gray Mitigation Alternatives In Flooding Reduction In Coastal Region

Coastal communities in low-lying regions are increasingly vulnerable to severe flooding triggered by high surges and large waves. The sea level rise resulting from climate change induces shorelines to encroach onto coastal land, further exacerbating the flooding damage in coastal areas. Thus, it is necessary to implement coastal structures to mitigate the influence of extreme flooding events on coastal communities. Seawalls, submerged breakwaters, and mangrove forests have been widely constructed worldwide to attenuate wave overflows and their impact on near-coast regions. However, studies on the comprehensive inter-comparison of the protective performance of each measure against flooding events to provide guidelines in coastal design and planning have yet to be limited. Therefore, experimental and numerical models were conducted to investigate the efficiency of natural (mangrove forests) and man-made (seawall and submerged breakwater) coastal structures in reducing the forces, pressures, and hydrodynamics generated by overflows in constructed environments.

Failure Analysis and Optimization of High Mechanical Strength Surge Arresters Using Finite Element Analysis

Failure Analysis and Optimization of High Mechanical Strength Surge Arresters Using Finite Element Analysis

Generalized index and mode modulatedOFDMwith improved spectral and energy efficiency

AbstractRecently developed trends in wireless communication encounter extremely high surge in data traffic, which makes it inevitable to employ energy efficient techniques to reduce detrimental consequence of carbon emission over society. This concern has motivated us to upgrade our previous work on index and mode modulated orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (IMM‐OFDM) for achieving dual benefits in terms of spectral and energy efficiency. In this paper, we have proposed a generalized index and mode modulated OFDM scheme with variable number of subcarrier activation. Novelty of this generalized scheme is its capability to act as a unified model for classic OFDM and three other benchmark index modulated OFDM schemes along with our previously proposed IMM‐OFDM scheme. This new scheme outperforms those five descendent schemes in terms of energy efficiency and error performance as indicated by simulation results. Spectral efficiency improvement in this scheme is achieved through optimum sets of active subcarrier number, which are determined to gain most optimized trade‐off between spectral and energy efficiency with least detector complexity. This generalized parent scheme can replace individual models of its five descendent schemes and consequently can be considered to be one of the most promising candidates for next generation mobile communication system.

Using vulnerability assessment to characterize coastal protection benefits provided by estuarine habitats of a dynamic intracoastal waterway.

The existence of coastal ecosystems depends on their ability to gain sediment and keep pace with sea level rise. Similar to other coastal areas, Northeast Florida (United States) is experiencing rapid population growth, climate change, and shifting wetland communities. Rising seas and more severe storms, coupled with the intensification of human activities, can modify the biophysical environment, thereby increasing coastal exposure to storm-induced erosion and inundation. Using the Guana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve as a case study, we analyzed the distribution of coastal protection services-expressly, wave attenuation and sediment control-provided by estuarine habitats inside a dynamic Intracoastal waterway. We explored six coastal variables that contribute to coastal flooding and erosion-(a) relief, (b) geomorphology, (c) estuarine habitats, (d) wind exposure, (e) boat wake energy, and (f) storm surge potential-to assess physical exposure to coastal hazards. The highest levels of coastal exposure were found in the north and south sections of the Reserve (9% and 14%, respectively) compared to only 4% in the central, with exposure in the south driven by low wetland elevation, high surge potential, and shorelines composed of less stable sandy and muddy substrate. The most vulnerable areas of the central Reserve and main channel of the Intracoastal waterway were exposed to boat wakes from larger vessels frequently traveling at medium speeds (10-20 knots) and had shoreline segments oriented towards the prevailing winds (north-northeast). To guide management for the recently expanded Reserve into vulnerable areas near the City of Saint Augustine, we evaluated six sites of concern where the current distribution of estuarine habitats (mangroves, salt marshes, and oyster beds) likely play the greatest role in natural protection. Spatially explicit outputs also identified potential elevation maintenance strategies such as living shorelines, landform modification, and mangrove establishment for providing coastal risk-reduction and other ecosystem-service co-benefits. Salt marshes and mangroves in two sites of the central section (N-312 and S-312) were found to protect more than a one-quarter of their cross-shore length (27% and 73%, respectively) from transitioning to the highest exposure category. Proposed interventions for mangrove establishment and living shorelines could help maintain elevation in these sites of concern. This work sets the stage for additional research, education, and outreach about where mangroves, salt marshes, and oyster beds are most likely to reduce risk to wetland communities in the region.

Trends in Patient Transfers From Overall and Caseload-Strained US Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Transferring patients to other hospitals because of inpatient saturation or need for higher levels of care was often challenging during the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding how transfer patterns evolved over time and amid hospital overcrowding could inform future care delivery and load balancing efforts. To evaluate trends in outgoing transfers at overall and caseload-strained hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic vs prepandemic times. This retrospective cohort study used data for adult patients at continuously reporting US hospitals in the PINC-AI Healthcare Database. Data analysis was performed from February to July 2023. Pandemic wave, defined as wave 1 (March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2020), wave 2 (June 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020), wave 3 (October 1, 2020, to June 19, 2021), Delta (June 20, 2021, to December 18, 2021), and Omicron (December 19, 2021, to February 28, 2022). Weekly trends in cumulative mean daily acute care transfers from all hospitals were assessed by COVID-19 status, hospital urbanicity, and census index (calculated as daily inpatient census divided by nominal bed capacity). At each hospital, the mean difference in transfer counts was calculated using pairwise comparisons of pandemic (vs prepandemic) weeks in the same census index decile and averaged across decile hospitals in each wave. For top decile (ie, high-surge) hospitals, fold changes (and 95% CI) in transfers were adjusted for hospital-level factors and seasonality. At 681 hospitals (205 rural [30.1%] and 476 urban [69.9%]; 360 [52.9%] small with <200 beds and 321 [47.1%] large with ≥200 beds), the mean (SD) weekly outgoing transfers per hospital remained lower than the prepandemic mean of 12.1 (10.4) transfers per week for most of the pandemic, ranging from 8.5 (8.3) transfers per week during wave 1 to 11.9 (10.7) transfers per week during the Delta wave. Despite more COVID-19 transfers, overall transfers at study hospitals cumulatively decreased during each high national surge period. At 99 high-surge hospitals, compared with a prepandemic baseline, outgoing acute care transfers decreased in wave 1 (fold change -15.0%; 95% CI, -22.3% to -7.0%; P < .001), returned to baseline during wave 2 (2.2%; 95% CI, -4.3% to 9.2%; P = .52), and displayed a sustained increase in subsequent waves: 19.8% (95% CI, 14.3% to 25.4%; P < .001) in wave 3, 19.2% (95% CI, 13.4% to 25.4%; P < .001) in the Delta wave, and 15.4% (95% CI, 7.8% to 23.5%; P < .001) in the Omicron wave. Observed increases were predominantly limited to small urban hospitals, where transfers peaked (48.0%; 95% CI, 36.3% to 60.8%; P < .001) in wave 3, whereas large urban and small rural hospitals displayed little to no increases in transfers from baseline throughout the pandemic. Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, study hospitals reported paradoxical decreases in overall patient transfers during each high-surge period. Caseload-strained rural (vs urban) hospitals with fewer than 200 beds were unable to proportionally increase transfers. Prevailing vulnerabilities in flexing transfer capabilities for care or capacity reasons warrant urgent attention.

Design and simulation of high performance β-Ga2O3 super barrier rectifier with a current blocking layer

In this work, a β-Ga2O3 super barrier rectifier with a current blocking layer (CSBR) is proposed. Its static characteristics, dynamic characteristics and surge capability are investigated by TCAD simulation. The Baliga’s figure of merit (BFOM) can reach 1.62 GW cm−2 with the on-resistance of 3.68 mΩ cm−2 and the breakdown voltage of 2447 V, exhibiting excellent performance. Foremost, the turn-on and turn-off of the device is controlled by metal-oxide-semiconductor (MOS) structure. The reverse recovery time is 11.2 ns, which is compatible with that of a Schottky diode. Simulation results show that the dimensions of the cells and the proportion of the ohmic contact region in the cells are the key parameters affecting the reverse recovery time. In addition, the CSBR with double-side cooling configuration demonstrates high surge capability. It can sustain a peak surge current density of 5000 A cm−2, which is more than 10 times its forward current (V Forward = 3.0 V). Overall, the proposed structure has a high BFOM, excellent reverse characteristics and high reliability, demonstrating its potential in high voltage applications. Moreover, CSBR can be embedded into Ga2O3-MOSFET as a free-wheeling diode.

Beyond the merit order effect: Impact of the rapid expansion of renewable energy on electricity market price

A drop in the average electricity market price owing to renewable energy with low marginal costs has been identified and explored as merit order effect. However, diffusion of variable renewable energy leads to concerns about the need for flexibility, decline of supply capacity, and volatility increase of electricity prices. For both decarbonization and stable electricity systems, understanding the drivers of market price is critical, but it is challenging because electricity markets are non-linear and affected by multiple factors. Hence, this research proposes a model based on machine learning techniques and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and estimates the multi-directional impact of renewable energy on the Japanese electricity market. The results reveal that the contribution of demand to market price is the largest, followed by solar generation and operable power facility capacity. This research identifies a large decline in the price triggered by solar power during the daytime; however, the effect of solar power varies by the time of day, season, and demand. Additionally, the results suggest that the market price increases when demand is high and solar generation is low, such as during summer evenings. Using XAI, this study quantitatively and visually demonstrated that interactions between solar power, demand, and operable power facility capacity are the key factors behind the high market volatility and price surge. It is important to manage the pace of plant installation and energy transition. Our study provides insights into how and when the market price changes with variable renewable energy and other policy-making factors.

Failure of 24 Inches Blowdown Tower Inlet Nozzle Due to Cyclic Surge Forces

Blowdown tower is one of the equipment in closed blowdown system (CBS) in Delay Coker unit in petroleum refinery. The primary intended function of the CBS is to flush out hydrocarbon vapours from coke drum using high pressure steam into blowdown tower. The system is operating in batches and cycles, due to constant operation at various temperature, pressure, and conditions, components are susceptible to various of failures including thermal fatigue, crack, corrosion, and others. Crack incident was observed on the welding of blowdown tower nozzle that connected to closed blowdown system (CBS) piping after 11 years of operation. This paper aims to study the structural integrity and risk level of the CBS system in relation to liquid level in receiving tower (blowdown tower). Dynamic piping stress analysis and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was conducted on this line and blowdown tower nozzle to evaluate the overall material behaviour and assessed the risk of failure. The acceptance criteria of the analysis were set to be based on ASME VIII-Division 2 part 5.2.2 (Elastic Stress Analysis Method) and ASME II-part D. Findings from FEA shows that the failure occurred on the blowdown tower nozzle was due to surge pressure impact from high pressure steam flow to obstructed high liquid elevation at the inlet nozzle. The high surge pressure that happened near the nozzle has caused the stress to exceed allowable level thus initiated the crack in cyclic/ batch service. It is recommended that petroleum refinery to continuously maintain the blowdown tower level below nozzle to prevent similar phenomenon to happen in future.

Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimisation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Support Structures - Coupled Model Solution Strategies

Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWT) can be installed at the sites of the most abundant wind resource. However, the design uncertainties and risks must be reduced to make them economically competitive. The design and optimisation methodologies for FOWT support structures adopted up to date tend to follow a sequential analysis strategy. Since the FOWT system involves multiple distinct, highly coupled disciplines, its analysis and design are challenging. This paper presents an efficient implementation of a coupled model of dynamics in an optimisation process by applying a Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimisation (MDAO) methodology. The coupling effects studied include the interdependence of the mean offset of the platform and the aerodynamic and mooring loads, as well as the velocity of the platform and the viscous damping. The trade-off between the solution accuracy and efficiency for the coupled and uncoupled models was quantified, and a range of iterative solvers were compared. The study showed that the coupling between the platform offset and the mooring and thrust loads has a significant influence on the values of the responses, converging at higher surge and pitch offsets, higher mooring loads, and at lower thrust. These non-conservative results demonstrated the criticality of the two-way coupling between the platform excursion and the mooring loads. Notably, the coupled solution was achieved at a relatively low increase in the total solution time (+16%), due to the high efficiency of Broyden’s method.

Time trend and seasonality in medically attended respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in US children aged 0–5 years, January 2010–January 2023

ObjectiveThe long-term time trend and seasonality variations of first-time medically attended respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections among young children are unknown. We aim to examine the time trend of medically...

Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Grand Bay, Mauritius, Using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS)

Small island countries located in the Indian ocean are mostly vulnerable to tsunamis generated from the Makran and Sumatra earthquake sources. A minor inundation was experienced from the 26th December 2004 tsunami caused by the Sumatra Andaman earthquake while the close island of Rodrigues recorded relatively high surges within its coasts. As a tourist destination for its sandy beaches and blue lagoons, most hotels and foreign invested real estates are located mostly within the coastal region, making the Mauritian economic mainstay vulnerable to the slightest tsunami threat. This research study therefore aims at assessing the vulnerability of the northern region of Mauritius namely Grand Bay, under a possible tsunami threat. Assessment has been categorised in three main vulnerability areas namely the building and infrastructure vulnerability, the human life vulnerability and the environmental vulnerability. The methodology set up includes digitalisation of the Grand Bay region using the QGIS software from satellite raster images, showing the demarked area with geospatial and attributes data. These were analysed using the area intersection in the QGIS Software. Vulnerability indexing was calculated using a risk matrix analysis which was in turn mapped in QGIS, showing highly exposed buildings, an account for human lives under major threat and areas that can suffer saline water infiltration as part of the negative environmental impact.

IDENTIFICATION OF POTENTIAL STORM SURGES DUE TO TYPHOON RAI USING NUMERICAL MODELS

In December 2021, Typhoon Rai (local name: Odette) hit the Visayas region of the Philippines. It had a minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) of 915 hectopascals (hPa) and a maximum sustained wind speed of 54.02 m/s and was classified as a violent typhoon by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Rai caused massive damage to infrastructure and housing (NDRRMC 2022). Rai passed through the vulnerable islands of Bohol and Cebu, where high storm surge heights could be expected from strong typhoons (Lapidez et al., 2015). Field surveys were conducted right after a typhoon event to investigate the condition of the affected areas. However, Rai hit during the pandemic when travel restrictions were effective in the country. Thus, it was difficult to identify the areas hit by potential storm surges immediately. Satellite imagery is one method; however, it is generally difficult to identify if the area was affected by storm surges using images. Numerical modeling of the typhoon event over select areas is one way to solve the problem of disaster information shortage. In this study, Rai is simulated using weather and storm models over the provinces of Bohol and Cebu.

Changes in seasonal compound floods in Vietnam revealed by a time-varying dependence structure of extreme rainfall and high surge

Compound floods due to intense rainfall and storm surges in coastal areas have shown an increasing trend in some parts of the world, and many studies suggested a strong link with climate change. Yet, such link has not been fully explored and quantitively assessed. In this paper, we demonstrate the development and application of a nonstationary framework to determining different compound scenarios, where individual drivers and their interactions have altered under climate change. The framework has been applied to one of the most flood-prone areas: the Ho Chi Minh City of Vietnam, to help analyze the present and future compound flood risks in both the dry and wet seasons driven by the joint effect from heavy inland rainfall and high skew surge. Over the period of 1980–2017, the two drivers are found to be significantly correlated in March and April, corresponding to the transition from dry-to-wet seasons. We also find that the commonly-used traditional multivariate statistical models underestimate the flood magnitudes for both the current (represented by 2020) and future (represented by 2050) scenarios, when compared with the results produced by the nonstationary methods. In addition, the results reveal that the dry season is expected to receive more floods triggered by the increased intensity and frequency of rainfall extremes, with the magnitude reaching a similar level to that of the wet season. This is in line with the climate projections under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios although the duration of dry spells is expected to increase and the total annual rainfall to decrease in Vietnam. The simulated flood inundations indicate remarkable increases in flood magnitude and extension, especially at the locations identified as low risk by the stationary models.