High-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model Research Articles

Offshore wind potential and wind atlas over the Oman Maritime Zone

This study, focused on Oman, has been motivated by the electrical power demand increase, global warming concerns, and technological advances in renewable energy production. The main objective of the study was to investigate the offshore wind potential and develop the wind atlas over the Oman Maritime Zone (OMZ). The study is based on wind data derived from the high-resolution numerical weather prediction (WRF) model. National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis global model data (0.5°) was used to derive a 9-km-resolution WRF model. This intermediate resolution was then further used to produce a high-resolution (3 km) WRF model. The model data were validated using ground measurement observations under different topographical conditions. Annual, seasonal, and monthly wind distribution over the OMZ are presented using the Geographical Information System environment from different heights above the mean sea level, namely 10 m, 20 m, 50 m, 80 m, and 100 m. In addition, the wind power density along the OMZ region was calculated as a postprocessing product of the model run. Finally, daily time series data are presented for selected points along the coastal areas of Oman. The study results show that the annual average wind speed over the southeastern region reached 8 m/s and peaked at above 10 m/s around the South Coast of Oman. Further, the wind speed during summer months (May–September) was much higher than in other months of the year.

Construction and Case Analysis of Detailed Urban Characteristic Information on Seoul Metropolitan Area for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Construction and Case Analysis of Detailed Urban Characteristic Information on Seoul Metropolitan Area for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Wind Hazard and Turbulence Monitoring at Airports with Lidar, Radar, and Mode-S Downlinks: The UFO Project

AbstractThis article presents the prospects of measurement systems for wind hazards and turbulence at airports, which have been explored in the Ultrafast Wind Sensors (UFO) project. At France’s Toulouse–Blagnac Airport, in situ, profiling, and scanning sensors have been used to collect measurements, from which wind vectors and turbulence intensities are estimated. A scanning 1.5-µm coherent Doppler lidar and a solid state X-band Doppler radar have been developed with improved update rates, spatial resolution, and coverage. In addition, Mode-S data downlinks have been collected for data analysis. Wind vector and turbulence intensity retrieval techniques are applied to demonstrate the capabilities of these measurement systems. An optimal combination of remote measurement systems is defined for all weather monitoring at airports. In this combination, lidar and radar systems are complementary for clear-air and rainy conditions, which are formulated in terms of visibility and rain rate. The added value of the measurement systems for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models is estimated by an observing system experiment, and a positive impact on the local wind forecast is demonstrated.

Probabilistic forecasting of day-ahead solar irradiance using quantile gradient boosting

Due to the chaotic nature of the underlying physical processes, even state-of-the-art models cannot perfectly forecast the solar irradiance at the surface of the earth. There is, therefore, a growing interest in the research community for forecasting methods that can quantify their own uncertainty.This paper proposes a novel probabilistic framework for forecasting day-ahead hourly solar irradiance. A principal component analysis (PCA) is used to tightly combine a high-resolution mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with a quantile gradient boosting algorithm.A thorough evaluation of the deterministic and probabilistic properties of the model is conducted for a full year in the tropical island of Singapore. The impact of the sky conditions on its performance is also considered. Furthermore, a rigorous statistical framework is employed to systematically benchmark our model against two state of the art methods, a Lasso model output statistic procedure and an analog ensemble (AnEn). Our model significantly improves the numerical weather prediction model: it achieves a 41% reduction of the MAE and 39% reduction of the RMSE. It is also slightly more accurate than Lasso and has a CRPS 4% lower than that of AnEn.

A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Abstract In October 2015 Hurricane Patricia stormed through the eastern Pacific, taking its place as the strongest hurricane in recorded history when its intensity reached a record breaking 185 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). Operational models and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast failed to predict Patricia’s unprecedented intensification, provoking questions as to whether such an extreme event can actually be forecast. This study reports on the successful simulation of Patricia using a state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. It was found that high model resolution (Δx ≤ 1 km), vortex initialization, and the parameterization of dissipative heating were key factors in realistically simulating Patricia’s intensity evolution. The simulation was used to investigate Patricia’s environment in terms of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and humidity, under the premise that a simulation able to capture Patricia’s peak intensity would also accurately represent Patricia’s environment. Compared with a climatology derived from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, sea surface temperature ranked in the 99th percentile and environmental vertical wind shear in the 83rd percentile (ordered from high to low). However, humidity ranked more moderately. Ensemble forecasts indicate that Patricia had relatively high predictability in comparison to other well-studied rapid intensification cases such as 2010’s Hurricane Earl. The results from this study imply that high-resolution models are in principle able to predict the intensity of extreme hurricanes like Patricia.

On forecasting wet-snow avalanche activity using simulated snow cover data

Wet-snow avalanches are relatively poorly understood and difficult to forecast. By definition, water is required in the snow cover, thus assessing the liquid water content of the snow cover is of paramount importance for wet-snow avalanche forecasting. While evaluating wet-snow instability through field measurements is difficult, physically based snow cover models can be used to estimate the amount of liquid water within the snow cover using meteorological input. Recently, an index based on the liquid water content of the snow cover was suggested showing high potential to predict the onset of wet-snow avalanche activity. However, as the snow cover model was forced with data from automated weather stations (AWS) only a now-cast was possible. As snow cover conditions quickly change during snow melt, a forecast would be useful. For this study, we therefore force the 1-D physically based snow cover model SNOWPACK with data from the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO and investigate whether forecasting regional patterns of the onset of wet-snow avalanche activity is feasible. To validate the index, we compared simulations performed at the location of numerous AWS in the Swiss Alps with wet-snow avalanche observations from the corresponding region. Only by forcing SNOWPACK with data from automated weather stations up to the actual day and then adding the forecasted input data to produce a forecast led to results comparable to the simulations with station data only. While using this setup, the index was able to predict the onset of wet-snow avalanching with a probability of detection of >80% for three winters between 2013 and 2016 and for two different climate regions in Switzerland. However, the false alarm ratio was high (up to 80%), suggesting that further refinements of the classification method are needed.

A boundary layer scaling technique for estimating near-surface wind energy using numerical weather prediction and wind map data

A boundary layer scaling (BLS) method for predicting long-term average near-surface wind speeds and power densities was developed in this work. The method was based on the scaling of reference climatological data either from long-term average wind maps or from hourly wind speeds obtained from high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, with case study applications from Great Britain. It incorporated a more detailed parameterisation of surface aerodynamics than previous studies and the predicted wind speeds and power densities were validated against observational wind speeds from 124 sites across Great Britain. The BLS model could offer long-term average wind speed predictions using wind map data derived from long-term observational data, with a mean percentage error of 1.5% which provided an improvement on the commonly used NOABL (Numerical Objective Analysis of Boundary Layer) wind map. The boundary layer scaling of NWP data was not, however, able to improve upon the use of raw NWP data for near surface wind speed predictions. However, the use of NWP data scaled by the BLS model could offer improved power density predictions compared to the use of the reference data sets. Using a vertical scaling of the shape factor of a Weibull distribution fitted to the BLS NWP data, power density predictions with a 1% mean percentage error were achieved. This provided a significant improvement on the use of a fixed shape factor which must be utilised when only long-term average wind speeds are available from reference wind maps. The work therefore highlights the advantages that use of a BLS model for wind speed and NWP data for power density predictions can offer for small to medium scale wind energy resource assessments, potentially facilitating more robust annual energy production and financial assessments of prospective small and medium scale wind turbine installations.

Verification of pre-monsoon temperature forecasts over India during 2016 with a focus on heatwave prediction

Abstract. The operational medium-range weather forecasting based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are complemented by the forecast products based on ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). This change has been recognised as an essentially useful tool for medium-range forecasting and is now finding its place in forecasting the extreme events. Here we investigate extreme events (heatwaves) using a high-resolution NWP model and its ensemble models in union with the classical statistical scores to serve verification purposes. With the advent of climate-change-related studies in the recent past, the rising number of extreme events and their plausible socio-economic effects have encouraged the need for forecasting and verification of extremes. Applying the traditional verification scores and associated methods to both the deterministic and the ensemble forecast, we attempted to examine the performance of the ensemble-based approach in comparison to the traditional deterministic method. The results indicate an appreciable competence of the ensemble forecast at detecting extreme events compared to the deterministic forecast. Locations of the events are also better captured by the ensemble forecast. Further, it is found that the EPS smoothes down the unexpectedly increasing signals, thereby reducing the false alarms and thus proving to be more reliable than the deterministic forecast.

Collaborative Efforts between the United States and United Kingdom to Advance Prediction of High-Impact Weather

AbstractIn recent years, a growing partnership has emerged between the Met Office and the designated U.S. national centers for expertise in severe weather research and forecasting, that is, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The driving force behind this partnership is a compelling set of mutual interests related to predicting and understanding high-impact weather and using high-resolution numerical weather prediction models as foundational tools to explore these interests.The forum for this collaborative activity is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed, where annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs) are conducted by NSSL and SPC. For the last decade, NSSL and SPC have used these experiments to find ways that high-resolution models can help achieve greater success in the prediction of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Beginning in 2012, the Met Office became a contributing partner in annual SFEs, bringing complementary expertise in the use of convection-allowing models, derived in their case from a parallel decadelong effort to use these models to advance prediction of flash floods associated with heavy thunderstorms.The collaboration between NSSL, SPC, and the Met Office has been enthusiastic and productive, driven by strong mutual interests at a grassroots level and generous institutional support from the parent government agencies. In this article, a historical background is provided, motivations for collaborative activities are emphasized, and preliminary results are highlighted.

A Diagnosis of Excessive Mixing in Smagorinsky Subfilter-Scale Turbulent Kinetic Energy Models

Abstract Large-eddy simulation (LES) models are widely used to study atmospheric turbulence. The effects of small-scale motions that cannot be resolved need to be modeled by a subfilter-scale (SFS) model. The SFS contribution to the turbulent fluxes is typically significant in the surface layer. This study presents analytical solutions of the classical Smagorinsky SFS turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) model including a buoyancy flux contribution. Both a constant length scale and a stability-dependent one as proposed by Deardorff are considered. Analytical expressions for the mixing functions are derived and Monin–Obukhov similarity relations that are implicitly imposed by the SFS TKE model are diagnosed. For neutral and weakly stable conditions, observations indicate that the turbulent Prandtl number (PrT) is close to unity. However, based on observations in the convective boundary layer, a lower value for PrT is often applied in LES models. As a lower Prandtl number promotes a stronger mixing of heat, this may cause excessive mixing, which is quantified from a direct comparison of the mixing function as imposed by the SFS TKE model with empirical fits from field observations. For a strong stability, the diagnosed mixing functions for both momentum and heat are larger than observed. The problem of excessive mixing will be enhanced for anisotropic grids. The findings are also relevant for high-resolution numerical weather prediction models that use a Smagorinsky-type TKE closure.

A Comparison of Methods Used to Populate Neighborhood-Based Contingency Tables for High-Resolution Forecast Verification

Abstract As high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are now commonplace, “neighborhood” verification metrics are regularly employed to evaluate forecast quality. These neighborhood approaches relax the requirement that perfect forecasts must match observations at the grid scale, contrasting traditional point-by-point verification methods. One recently proposed metric, the neighborhood equitable threat score, is calculated from 2 × 2 contingency tables that are populated within a neighborhood framework. However, the literature suggests three subtly different methods of populating neighborhood-based contingency tables. Thus, this work compares and contrasts these three variants and shows they yield statistically significantly different conclusions regarding forecast performance, illustrating that neighborhood-based contingency tables should be constructed carefully and transparently. Furthermore, this paper shows how two of the methods use inconsistent event definitions and suggests a “neighborhood maximum” approach be used to fill neighborhood-based contingency tables.

Real-time precise point positioning augmented with high-resolution numerical weather prediction model

The tropospheric delay is one of the major error sources in precise point positioning (PPP), affecting the accuracy and precision of estimated coordinates and convergence time, which raises demand for a reliable tropospheric model, suitable to support PPP. In this study, we investigate the impact of three tropospheric models and mapping functions regarding position accuracy and convergence time. We propose a routine to constrain the tropospheric estimates, which we implemented in the in-house developed real-time PPP software. We take advantage of the high spatial resolution (4 × 4 km2) numerical weather prediction Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and near real-time GNSS data combined by the least-squares collocation estimation to reconstruct the tropospheric delays. We also present mapping functions calculated from the WRF model using the ray-tracing technique. The performance tests are conducted on 14 Polish EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) stations during 3 weeks of different tropospheric conditions: calm, standard and severe. We consider six GNSS data processing variants, including two commonly used variants using a priori ZTD and mapping functions from UNB3m and VMF1-FC models, one with a priori ZTD and mapping functions calculated directly from WRF model and three variants using the aforementioned mapping functions but with ZTD model based on GNSS and WRF data used as a priori troposphere and to constrain tropospheric estimates. The application of a high-resolution GNSS/WRF-based ZTD model and mapping functions results in the best agreement with the official EPN coordinates. In both static and kinematic modes, this approach results in an average reduction of 3D bias by 20 and 10 mm, respectively, but an increase of 3D SDs by 1.5 and 4 mm, respectively. The application of high-resolution tropospheric model also shortens the convergence time, for example, for a 10 cm convergence level, from 67 to 58 min for the horizontal components and from 79 to 63 min for the vertical component.

Predicting ocean surface currents using numerical weather prediction model and Kohonen neural network: a northern Adriatic study

The paper documents a concept of ocean forecasting system for ocean surface currents based on self-organizing map (SOM) trained by high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and high-frequency (HF) radar data. Wind and surface currents data from the northern Adriatic coastal area were used in a 6-month long training phase to obtain SOM patterns. Very high correlation between current and joined current and wind SOM patterns indicated the strong relationship between winds and currents and allowed for creation of a prediction system. Increasing SOM dimensions did not increase reliability of the forecasting system, being limited by the amount of the data used for training and achieving the lowest errors for 4 × 4 SOM matrix. As the HF radars and high-resolution NWP models are strongly expanding in coastal oceans, providing reliable and long-term datasets, the applicability of the proposed SOM-based forecasting system is expected to be high.

The Convective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): Investigating the Origins of Heavy Precipitation in the Southwestern United Kingdom

Abstract The Convective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) was a joint U.K.–U.S. field campaign held during the summer of 2013 in the southwest peninsula of England, designed to study convective clouds that produce heavy rain leading to flash floods. The clouds form along convergence lines that develop regularly as a result of the topography. Major flash floods have occurred in the past, most famously at Boscastle in 2004. It has been suggested that much of the rain was produced by warm rain processes, similar to some flash floods that have occurred in the United States. The overarching goal of COPE is to improve quantitative convective precipitation forecasting by understanding the interactions of the cloud microphysics and dynamics and thereby to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) model skill for forecasts of flash floods. Two research aircraft, the University of Wyoming King Air and the U.K. BAe 146, obtained detailed in situ and remote sensing measurements in, around, and below storms on several days. A new fast-scanning X-band dual-polarization Doppler radar made 360° volume scans over 10 elevation angles approximately every 5 min and was augmented by two Met Office C-band radars and the Chilbolton S-band radar. Detailed aerosol measurements were made on the aircraft and on the ground. This paper i) provides an overview of the COPE field campaign and the resulting dataset, ii) presents examples of heavy convective rainfall in clouds containing ice and also in relatively shallow clouds through the warm rain process alone, and iii) explains how COPE data will be used to improve high-resolution NWP models for operational use.

Modelling hazardous surface hoar layers across western Canada with a coupled weather and snow cover model

Destructive snow avalanches in western Canada are often caused by failure in buried surface hoar layers. Numerical snow cover models can simulate the formation and evolution of these layers, which could help avalanche forecasters assess the location and timing of avalanches. To investigate this application, we compared modelled surface hoar layers with snow and avalanche observations from the Coast, Columbia, and Rocky Mountains of western Canada. Surface hoar formation and evolution was modelled by forcing the snow cover model SNOWPACK with data from a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. Surface hoar formation was verified with daily snow surface observations at 88 observation sites over two winters, and the evolution of buried layers was verified with avalanche observations and persistent weak layer assessments from 67 avalanche forecast regions. The frequency of surface hoar formation was over-predicted by 40%, although since modelled crystal sizes were moderately correlated with observed sizes, the more hazardous layers were often distinguished. A structural stability index in SNOWPACK often identified surface hoar layers during storm slab avalanche activity, but identifying layers during persistent slab avalanche activity was more difficult. Model limitations included uncertain meteorological inputs, errors in SNOWPACK's snow surface energy balance, and representing the necessary spatial scales. Despite these limitations, the coupled model resolved differences between major Canadian mountain ranges and could improve avalanche forecasts in data-sparse regions.

Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Quantitative Precipitation Estimation: Initial Operating Capabilities

Abstract Rapid advancements of computer technologies in recent years made the real-time transferring and integration of high-volume, multisource data at a centralized location a possibility. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system recently implemented at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction demonstrates such capabilities by integrating about 180 operational weather radars from the conterminous United States and Canada into a seamless national 3D radar mosaic with very high spatial (1 km) and temporal (2 min) resolution. The radar data can be integrated with high-resolution numerical weather prediction model data, satellite data, and lightning and rain gauge observations to generate a suite of severe weather and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products. This paper provides an overview of the initial operating capabilities of MRMS QPE products.

Intrinsic Predictability of the 20 May 2013 Tornadic Thunderstorm Event in Oklahoma at Storm Scales

AbstractUsing a high-resolution convection-allowing numerical weather prediction model, this study seeks to explore the intrinsic predictability of the severe tornadic thunderstorm event on 20 May 2013 in Oklahoma from its preinitiation environment to initiation, upscale organization, and interaction with other convective storms. This is accomplished through ensemble forecasts perturbed with minute initial condition uncertainties that were beyond detection capabilities of any current observational platforms. It was found that these small perturbations, too small to modify the initial mesoscale environmental instability and moisture fields, will be propagated and evolved via turbulence within the PBL and rapidly amplified in moist convective processes through positive feedbacks associated with updrafts, phase transitions of water species, and cold pools, thus greatly affecting the appearance, organization, and development of thunderstorms. The forecast errors remain nearly unchanged even when the initial perturbations (errors) were reduced by as much as 90%, which strongly suggests an inherently limited predictability for this thunderstorm event for lead times as short as 3–6 h. Further scale decomposition reveals rapid error growth and saturation in meso-γ scales (regardless of the magnitude of initial errors) and subsequent upscale growth into meso-β scales.

Assessment of valley cold pools and clouds in a very high-resolution numerical weather prediction model

Abstract. The formation of cold air pools in valleys under stable conditions represents an important challenge for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The challenge is increased when the valleys that dominate cold pool formation are on scales unresolved by NWP models, which can lead to substantial local errors in temperature forecasts. In this study a 2-month simulation is presented using a nested model configuration with a finest horizontal grid spacing of 100 m. The simulation is compared with observations from the recent COLd air Pooling Experiment (COLPEX) project and the model's ability to represent cold pool formation, and the surface energy balance is assessed. The results reveal a bias in the model long-wave radiation that results from the assumptions made about the sub-grid variability in humidity in the cloud parametrization scheme. The cloud scheme assumes relative humidity thresholds below 100 % to diagnose partial cloudiness, an approach common to schemes used in many other models. The biases in radiation, and resulting biases in screen temperature and cold pool properties are shown to be sensitive to the choice of critical relative humidity, suggesting that this is a key area that should be improved for very high-resolution modeling.

Atmospheric brown clouds reach the Tibetan Plateau by crossing the Himalayas

Abstract. The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau region (HTP), despite being a remote and sparsely populated area, is regularly exposed to polluted air masses with significant amounts of aerosols including black carbon. These dark, light-absorbing particles are known to exert a great melting potential on mountain cryospheric reservoirs through albedo reduction and radiative forcing. This study combines ground-based and satellite remote sensing data to identify a severe aerosol pollution episode observed simultaneously in central Tibet and on the southern side of the Himalayas during 13–19 March 2009 (pre-monsoon). Trajectory calculations based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO are used to locate the source regions and study the mechanisms of pollution transport in the complex topography of the HTP. We detail how polluted air masses from an atmospheric brown cloud (ABC) over South Asia reach the Tibetan Plateau within a few days. Lifting and advection of polluted air masses over the great mountain range is enabled by a combination of synoptic-scale and local meteorological processes. During the days prior to the event, winds over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) are generally weak at lower levels, allowing for accumulation of pollutants and thus the formation of ABCs. The subsequent passing of synoptic-scale troughs leads to southwesterly flow in the middle troposphere over northern and central India, carrying the polluted air masses across the Himalayas. As the IGP is known to be a hotspot of ABCs, the cross-Himalayan transport of polluted air masses may have serious implications for the cryosphere in the HTP and impact climate on regional to global scales. Since the current study focuses on one particularly strong pollution episode, quantifying the frequency and magnitude of similar events in a climatological study is required to assess the total impact.

Assessing the skill of precipitation forecasts on seasonal time scales over East Africa from a Climate Forecast System model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the skill of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. This study focused on assessing the skill of climate forecast system (CFS) model in predicting rainfall on seasonal time scales over East Africa region for the period January 1981 to December 2009. The rainfall seasons considered were March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The data used in the study included the observed seasonal rainfall totals from January 1981 to December 2009 and CFS model forecast data for the same period. The model had 15 Runs. The measure of skill employed was the categorical skill scores and included Heidke skill scores, bias, probability of detection and false alarm ratio. The results from the categorical skill scores confirmed relatively higher skills during OND season as compared to MAM. When compared with individual Runs, the mean of all the 15 Runs depicted relatively higher accuracy during OND season. Some individual Runs – 1, 7, 9 and 10 – also performed better during OND season. During MAM season, the mean of all the 15 Runs showed relatively lower accuracy in predicting rainfall. Some individual Runs – 5, 10, 12 and 14 – performed better than the mean of all the 15 Runs. The prediction of seasonal rainfall over East Africa region using CFS model depends on the season considered. During MAM, the prediction of seasonal rainfall is better as Runs are fewer, which showed relatively higher averaged skills; on the other hand, during OND the prediction of seasonal rainfall is better when using the mean of all the 15 Runs.