High Deforestation Research Articles

Impact of Ex-Closure in above and below Ground Carbon Stock Biomass

Globally, there is a serious issue in carbon stock due to high deforestation and the loss of land, limited carbon storage pools in aboveground and underground forests in different regions, and increased carbon emissions to the atmosphere. This review paper highlights the impact of exclosures on above and below ground carbon stocks in biomass as a solution to globally curb carbon emissions. The data has been analyzed dependent on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Forest Resource Assessment report (FRA, 2020), and scientific journal publications mostly from the last decade, to show the research results of carbon stock and the impact of exclosures, particularly the challenges of deforestation and erosion of land and opportunities of area exclosures to provide a general outlook for policymakers. Overall, the world’s forest regions are declining, and although the forest loss rate has slowed, it has still not stopped sufficiently because the knowledge and practice of exclosures are limited. The global forest loss and carbon stock have decreased from 7.8 million ha/yr to 4.7 million ha/yr and from 668 gigatons to 662 gigatons respectively due to multiple factors that differ across the regions. However, a move toward natural rehabilitation and exclosures to reduce the emissions of Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) is needed. In the global production of carbon, the exclosure of forests plays an important role, in particular for permanent sinks of carbon.

Local climate conditions impact on breeding performance of house martin (Delichon urbica) populations in Algeria

The Mediterranean climate of North Africa encompasses an interesting variety of sub-climates, from humid and sub-humid to semi-arid and arid. Such variability may provide vital insights into mechanisms that drive species distribution and offered us an ideal opportunity to test phenotypic variations along gradients. We aim in this study to investigate the breeding behaviour of house martin Delichon urbica (Linnaeus, 1758) populations along regional climatic gradients in north-eastern Algeria. During two consecutive breeding seasons (2016–2017), nine field sites (328 active nests) belonging to three different sub-climates: humid, sub-humid, and semi-arid were surveyed regularly from March to August. We used generalized linear models to test the relevance of local climate and several ecological variables on laying reproductive output. Laying dates were positively correlated with climate condition (GOF = 0.42), the semi-arid climate creating appropriate conditions for advancing the laying process, whereas sub-humid and humid climate delayed it. Clutch-size and number of chicks hatched per nest were affected by local climate conditions; they were greater in humid areas than in sub-humid and semi-arid ones. The other non-climatic variables as brood order, laying date, distance to fields, and distance to water were not significant. The spatial analysis around nest sites of house martins also showed that dense vegetation cover and reduced urbanization levels may be potential predictors of breeding behaviour. Nest sites located in humid areas with dense vegetation cover, and low urbanization levels that characterize the surrounding landscape provide high-breeding success rate to this species if compared to sub-humid and semi-arid areas. These findings can be a useful indicator of environmental change in a country that is already experiencing severe drought stresses, uncontrolled urbanization, and high deforestation rates.

Conservation Policy, Type of Protected Area and Deforestation in Mainland Tanzania

Protected areas are an important means of controlling deforestation. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in controlling deforestation depends on type of protected area which determines conservation policy pursued and thus how the protected area is managed. This paper reports on analysis of the relationship between deforestation and type of protected area, namely forest reserve, game reserve and national park in mainland Tanzania. The analysis used maps covering the whole of mainland Tanzania for 1995 and 2010 and applied GIS analytical techniques. Both forest reserves and game reserves had lower deforestation than areas that were not protected whereas national parks had higher deforestation than areas that were not protected. However, forest reserves had higher rate of deforestation than game reserves. These results raise questions with regards to ecological processes and policy options relevant for the three types of protected areas and their effects on deforestation. First, are the differences in deforestation due to varying levels of effectiveness of measures used to control deforestation among the three types of protected areas? Second, what is the role of natural processes such as elephants that kill trees? Third, why should national parks be associated with the highest rate of deforestation? Are forests so bad for wild animals in national parks? These questions form the basis of the discussion of the results.

How effective have been guerrilla occupation and protected areas in avoiding deforestation in Colombia?

Impact assessment and monitoring of conservation strategies are required to guarantee successful conservation outcomes. The establishment of protected areas (PAs) is a worldwide conservation strategies, but some PAs are not effective in avoiding deforestation. On the other hand, armed conflicts have ambiguous effects on wildlife. Colombia is a megadiverse country that not only has a huge network of PAs but also shows a high deforestation rate and a 50-years-old armed conflict. Here, we assessed the impact of the Colombian PAs and the FARC-EP guerrilla (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) occupation areas in avoiding deforestation in the country. For that, we compared the forest cover of PAs and FARC areas with environmentally similar control areas to assess forest loss from 2000 to 2017. We found that only large Colombian PAs were effective in avoiding deforestation over the last 17 years and that FARC presence increased deforestation in the country. Our results showed that the establishment of PA alone is not enough to ensure a positive conservation outcome. Our study offered a broad-scale analysis of Colombian PA impacts in avoiding deforestation as well as FARC's role in forest loss. Colombia has several challenges to reduce its deforestation rate and to enhance the impact of PA in avoiding deforestation. Those challenges include the solution of the land tenure conflict, improvement of current legislation, strengthening governance, and conflict resolution. Further, Colombia needs to deal with obstacles derived from armed conflict itself, particularly in the historic FARC areas, where fundamental conservation efforts are mostly needed.

Challenges to the Adaptation of Double Cropping Agricultural Systems in Brazil under Changes in Climate and Land Cover

The wide adoption of highly productive soy–maize double cropping has allowed Brazil to become one of the main producers and exporters of these commodities. However, land cover and climate change could affect the viability of double cropping due to a shortening of the rainy season, and both crops could be affected. The goals of this study were to evaluate if adaptation measures such as adoption of shorter-cycle cultivars and delaying sowing dates are effective to maintain soybean and maize yield in the main producing regions in Brazil. We used a crop model and four climate models to simulate double cropping in two climate scenarios that differ in Amazonia and Cerrado deforestation levels. We tested if 10 soybean and 17 maize sowing dates and three cultivar combination could reduce the impacts of a shorter rainy season in double cropping yield and gross revenue. Results showed a decrease in maize yield due to a delay of soybean sowing dates and rainfall reduction during the growing season. Adaptation through delaying sowing dates and the adoption of short cycle cultivars was not effective to maintain system revenue in all the study regions in a scenario with high deforestation levels.

Identifying the socio-economic factors of deforestation and degradation: a case study in Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Deforestation remains a major ecological problem in most developing countries especially, Pakistan has a very high deforestation rate. Various socioeconomic factors determine deforestation and degradation. Therefore, this study was aimed to evaluate the causes of deforestation in Basho forest, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan. This study collected data on factors of deforestations and degradation resulting in environmental problems such as air pollution, soil erosion, temperature rise and to recommend practices for sustainable forests. A questionnaire survey of 220 respondents was conducted including; educated locals of different age group and forest officials (forest engineers, civil servants and workers) in Forestry service division. Descriptive statistics and a logistic regression model were applied on the collected data and Likert scale method to determine the mean score of socio-economic factors encouraging deforestation. More than 70% respondents were below 30 years old, while 14.6% and 12.6% respondents from 31–40 to 41–50 age groups, respectively. 65.9% and 34.1% of the respondents were male and female respectively. Only 26.8% of the respondents were university graduates, while below 50% (48.6%) of respondents were primary school graduates. According to the analysis, the respondents were completely dependent on the forest for their livelihood needs. The socioeconomic factors such as rapid population growth, livelihood activities, lack of education, Poor forest management, Fuel wood consumption and Period of residence were found to be the prominent factors for deforestation. Results of the logit regression established reward socioeconomic factors were statistically significant variable at (p < 0.05). Based on study results, the deforestation activities cannot be entirely eradicated but it can be reduced to the level of sustainable forest through convenient forest conservation policies and application of efficient and energy conservation technologies. Adequate economic incentives and applied technologies for locals could be a productive approach to reduce deforestation rate.

Spatial prioritization for biodiversity conservation in a megadiverse country

Abstract Mexico is a biologically megadiverse country, but its biodiversity is endangered due to high deforestation rates. Impacts of land-use/cover-change and climate change are unevenly distributed, which hinders the execution of conservation practices. Consequently, an adequate spatial conservation prioritization is crucial to minimize the negative impacts on biodiversity. Global and national efforts to prioritize conservation show that >45 % of Mexico should be protected. This study develops an applicable spatial conservation prioritization to minimize impacts on biodiversity, under three scenarios. They integrate exposure to land-use/cover-change and climate change scenarios, adaptive capacity to deal with the exposure, and the distribution of endemic species on risk of extinction. Our results show that by 2050 between 11.6 %, 13.9 % and 16.1 % of Mexico would reach score ≥50 in vulnerability (VI), under the optimistic, BAU, and the worst-case scenarios, respectively. By 2070, these figures would rise to 11.9 %, 14.8 % and 18.4 %. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates with 62.2 % of endemic species being critically endangered or endangered, while 39.2 %, 11.8 %, and 8.5 % of endemic mammals, birds and reptiles are endangered or critically endangered. The distribution of these amphibians accounts for 3.3 % of the country’s area, while mammals, birds, and reptiles represent 9.9 %, 16.2 %, and 28.7 % of Mexico. Moreover, seven municipalities (0.39 % of the country) represent 30 % of the most vulnerable areas (VI = 70). This study offers relevant information at the levels of municipality and species to help decision-makers prioritize national efforts for the conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity under land-use/cover and climate change. This study is replicable in other regions which aim to adapt decision-making and land management for biodiversity conservation.

Understanding the adoption of sustainable silvopastoral practices in Northern Argentina: What is the role of land tenure?

The Argentinian Dry Chaco has suffered from very high deforestation rates in the last decades, and forest degradation remains an important issue. This study examines the adoption of sustainable silvopastoral practices by smallholder households in the Chaco. Data for the study were collected from 392 families in two municipalities of the Province of Salta. We used multivariate probit (MVP) models to assess land users’ decision to adopt three management practices. We show that socio-economic factors (household assets, number of animals), human and social capital (literacy, affiliation with a producer organization), as well as access to financial resources (credit) determine adoption. Secured land tenure also increases the likelihood of adoption, but not as much as we initially hypothesized. We discuss how certain specificities of the area, including difficulties accessing land titles and pressure from the agro-industry, as well as the characteristics of the resource itself – forest grazing areas, some shared by multiple families – might explain this unexpectedly low influence of land tenure on the adoption of sustainable silvopastoral practices.

GIS Based Universal Soil Erosion Estimation in District Chakwal Punjab, Pakistan

Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem faced by district Chakwal. Unpredictable short term and high intensity rainfall, improper cultivation and deforestation have accelerated the soil erosion in the district. The agricultural productivity of the study area can be enhanced by understanding, estimating and controlling the root causes of soil erosion. This study was undertaken to estimate and spatially represent the rate of average annual soil erosion in Chakwal using GIS/RS techniques. The soil erosion was estimated using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model. To find out parameters of USLE, ASTER GDEM of 30 m resolution was used to estimate slope length and elevation of the study area. Landsat 8 satellite imagery of year 2019, was used to prepare land use map using supervised classification. Soil map with texture and geomorphology was used to identify soils of study area and rainfall data of last 7 years was also studied. Finally, the soil loss has been computed using raster calculator of ArcGIS 10.2 software. The average annual soil loss was predicted up to 268,619 tons/acre/year, of which maximum soil erosion was occurring near the steep slopes and river channels. It is necessary to adapt sustainable land management practices to reduce the risk of further soil erosion, by adopting rainwater harvesting and choosing right crops for suitable soil types.

Policies Drive Sub-National Forest Transitions in Vietnam

Vietnam has seemingly been able to shortcut the forest transition (FT) by quickly moving to the reforestation phase. Provincial-level forest cover and socio-economic trends are, however, not necessarily compatible with a standard FT framework. This article compares forest cover change and associated policy reforms in two provinces. Bac Kan is one of the poorest provinces in Vietnam, and has, after years of deforestation and forest degradation, expanded its forest cover during the past two decades. In contrast, Lam Dong province has higher GDP and population density, but has had high deforestation linked to expansion of perennial crops. This is contrary to what could be expected from a conventional FT hypothesis. Land use dynamics in Vietnam is heavily driven by its historical heritage related to the independence from French rule and heavy state-control and collectivization, and its more recent shift to “market-led socialism” (doi moi), involving export promotion, decentralization and land tenure reforms. The Vietnam experience shows that policies can trump the typical FT patterns linked to general development trends and structural changes, and that the typical FT-trajectory is not unavoidable. Yet, these policies have not primarily been guided by forest concerns, but should be viewed as a side effect of the doi moi policies pursuing economic growth and of the devolution of rights and decision-making.

Brazil’s conservation reform and the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia

The Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), launched in 2004, promoted a drastic conservation reform in Brazil. To date, the plan has been through four distinct phases: PPCDAm-I (2004–2008), II (2009–2011), III (2012–2015), and IV (2016–2020). A substantial decline from historically high deforestation rates in the Amazon occurred from 2004 to 2012, part of which (particularly after 2007) can be attributed to the PPCDAm, and part to economic factors such as commodity prices and the currency exchange rates that affect the profitability of agricultural exports. After 2012 deforestation has trended upward despite control efforts. The PPCDAm evolved through its four phases, consequently changing the patterns of deforestation in Amazonia. Here, we review the conservation instruments and strategies promoted under the PPCDAm umbrella and, when possible, provide estimates of their impacts on deforestation based on rigorous, counterfactual evaluations. While the literature emphasizes some of the most well-known PPCDAm actions, e.g., improved satellite-based monitoring, the “blacklist” of municipalities, expansion of protected areas, land tenure regularization, credit access restrictions, and moratoria, we highlight a number of other PPCDAm activities that, along with the previous examples, are arguably also responsible for a significant share of the reduction of deforestation in the region.

959. BREXIA MADAGASCARIENSIS

SummaryBrexia madagascariensis (Lam.) Ker Gawl is native in East Madagascar. There are at least 25 known subpopulations growing mostly in humid forest (IUCN 2020), particularly in remnant patches of coastal forest. It was listed as ‘Least Concern’ on the IUCN Red Lists in 2007; however, continuing pressure on forests and potential taxonomic changes may require this to be reviewed. Madagascar has very high deforestation rates, primarily caused by logging and widespread shifting cultivation. Germination and cultivation for in‐situ and ex‐situ conservation are easily achievable and this small tree is ideal for education and display in botanic gardens. The leaves of juvenile plants are long and spiny, while the adult leaves tend to be more rounded and lack the spines.

Changes in water fluxes partition related to the replacement of native dry forests by crops in the Dry Chaco

Land-use change has been the strongest driver of vegetation cover change in the world. In the South American Dry Chaco (~1 M km2; PPT/ET0 < 0.65), native dry forests are experiencing high deforestation rates that tend to continue in the coming years. Here, we used a hydrological model (Hydrus 1-D) to analyze changes in the water balance triggered by the replacement of dry forests by annual rainfed summer crops. We found that transpiration represented the main water vapour flux in both vegetation covers (59 and 48% of annual rainfall in dry forest and cropland, respectively), followed by evaporation (31 and 30%, respectively) and interception (11 and 9%, respectively). Runoff was five times higher in the cropland compared to the dry forest (10 vs. 2%; p < 0.01). Deep drainage was a negligible water flux in dry forests but it represented 4% of annual rainfall in croplands (p < 0.01), reaching values of zero and 130 mm year−1 for dry and wet years, respectively. Our results highlight the key role of vegetation cover controlling ecosystem water fluxes in the Dry Chaco. More generally, we suggest that the expansion of dryland cultivation can modify the regional water balance and threaten the primary production of ecosystems in the long run.

Spatial Model Of The Deforestation Potential 2020 &amp; 2024 And The Prevention Approach, Kutai Barat District

Kutai Barat have high forest cover and high deforestation rates. The study purpose to make spatial model, potential distribution of deforestation 2020 and 2024, analysis of the drivers of deforestation, compile and map the approach to reducing deforestation. Deforestation modeling done using MaxEnt and Zonation software. Deforestation sample data used from land cover maps 2009, 2013 and 2016. Deforestation rates used to estimate potential deforestation 2020 and 2024. The drivers of deforestation analyze from land cover change matrix. Prevention strategy approach by overlaying potential deforestation modeling results with RTRW maps. The model has good performance with AUC value 0.873. The validation show very good accuracy for the prediction of area to be deforested by 94%, the accuracy of the spatial distribution of the model 31%. Environmental variables have the highest contribution to the model is the distance from previous deforestation 37.4%. The potential of deforestation 2020 is 85,908 ha and 171,778 ha 2024. Oil palm, agriculture, rubber, HTI and mining are the driver of deforestation. Social forestry is expected to prevent potential deforestation 120,861 ha. Others expected programs to contribute to the deforestation reduction are community land intensification 30,316 ha and implementation of the HCV in plantation 20,120 ha.

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region, Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km2, has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO2 sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km2. The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO2-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO2-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.

Discolouring the Amazon Rainforest: how deforestation is affecting butterfly coloration

Butterflies are among the most colourful organisms in the world and colour plays a central role in many of their life-history strategies. However, the efficacy of coloration strategies in these and other animals could be affected by sudden environmental changes, including anthropogenic disturbances such as habitat loss and fragmentation. Here we investigate the effect of forest disturbance gradients on the colours of fruit-feeding butterflies in the Amazon Rainforest. The disturbance gradients tested represented habitat-size (continuous primary forests versus forest fragments of 1, 10 and 100 ha) and succession gradients (continuous primary forests, 30 year old secondary forests, and three year old early successional forests). Using digital image analysis, we obtained intrinsic measures of butterfly colour patches corresponding to hue, saturation, brightness, in addition to measures of the contrast among patches and of the overall wing-colour diversity corresponding to 220 individuals, belonging to 60 species. Our results showed that butterflies in the secondary forest and continuous primary forest are more colourful than those found in early succession and fragments of forests. Individuals occurring in forests of early succession showed higher average values of hue and saturation, but lower brightness. Accompanying changes in colour composition, wing-colour diversity among species was lower in human-disturbed habitats, such as those of early forest succession and secondary forest. Forest fragments have smaller effects on butterfly colour composition, indicating that well-structured forest habitats can house butterfly assemblages with more diverse phenotypic features and colours. We show how high deforestation rates in recent years is linked with negative changes in functional coloration strategies (e.g. camouflage, warning colours), something that has to date been poorly explored or demonstrated for butterflies. Specifically, human interference has apparently placed butterflies under strong selection for lower diversity in their colours and range of defensive strategies. Those species that are most colourful are the first to be locally extinguished, likely due to removal of native vegetation and increased exposure to predators, and more broadly owing to inhospitable environmental conditions. This illustrates an accelerated loss of local fauna and a “discolouration” of the Amazonian butterflies due to anthropogenic impacts.

Above-ground carbon stocks and timber value of old timber plantations, secondary and primary forests in southern Ghana

High deforestation rates, especially in the tropics, currently result in the annual emission of large amounts of carbon, contributing to global climate change. There is therefore an urgent need to take actions to mitigate climate change both by slowing down deforestation and by initiating new sinks. Tropical forest plantations are generally thought to sequester carbon rapidly during the initial years but there is limited knowledge on their long-term potential. In this study, we assessed the carbon sequestration in old (42–47 years) timber plantations of Aucoumea klaineana, Cedrela odorata, Tarrietia utilis, and Terminalia ivorensis, and secondary forests of similar ages, by comparing their basal areas and above-ground carbon stocks (AGC) to that of nearby primary forests. Additionally, we estimated and compared timber volume and stumpage value in the three forest types.Systematic random sampling of ninety-three 20 m × 20 m plots in eleven forest sites (2 secondary forests, 2 primary forests, and 7 timber plantations) was undertaken to determine the effect of forest type on AGC, basal area, timber volume, and stumpage value.After 42 years of growth, mean AGC of the timber plantations (159.7 ± 14.3 Mg ha−1) was similar to that of primary forests (173.0 ± 25.1 Mg ha−1) and both were significantly higher than the mean AGC of the secondary forests (103.6 ± 12.3 Mg ha−1). Mean basal area and timber volume of the timber plantations and secondary forests were similar to that of the primary forests, though in each case the timber plantations had significantly higher values compared to the secondary forests. Mean timber value of the plantations ($8577 ha−1) was significantly higher than both secondary ($1870 ha−1) and primary forests ($3112 ha−1). Contrary to our expectations, naturally regenerated trees (woody recruits) within the timber plantations had similar AGC levels, basal area, timber volume, and value compared to the secondary forests.Long-rotation tropical forest plantations under low-intensity management could achieve higher AGC levels and thus have higher climate change mitigation potential and timber values compared to naturally regenerated secondary forests, and are able to reach values similar to primary forests. Monoculture timber plantations could facilitate the successful colonization of their understoreys by native woody recruits that contribute considerably to stand AGC and timber values. Long-rotation forest plantations in the tropics therefore have a critical role to play in forest rehabilitation and climate change mitigation while having the potential to provide modest financial returns to landowners through selective harvesting of timber and/or payments for carbon sequestration.

Predicting the deforestation probability using the binary logistic regression, random forest, ensemble rotational forest, REPTree: A case study at the Gumani River Basin, India

Rapid population growth and its corresponding effects like the expansion of human settlement, increasing agricultural land, and industry lead to the loss of forest area in most parts of the world especially in such highly populated nations like India. Forest canopy density (FCD) is a useful measure to assess the forest cover change in its own as numerous works of forest change have been done using only FCD with the help of remote sensing and GIS. The coupling of binary logistic regression (BLR), random forest (RF), ensemble of rotational forest and reduced error pruning trees (RTF-REPTree) with FCD makes it more convenient to find out the deforestation probability. Advanced vegetation index (AVI), bare soil index (BSI), shadow index (SI), and scaled vegetation density (VD) derived from Landsat imageries are the main input parameters to identify the FCD. After preparing the FCDs of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2017 the deforestation map of the study area was prepared and considered as dependent parameter for deforestation probability modelling. On the other hand, twelve deforestation determining factors were used to delineate the deforestation probability with the help of BLR, RF and RTF-REPTree models. These deforestation probability models were validated through area under curve (AUC), receiver operating characteristics (ROC), efficiency, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa co-efficient. The validation result shows that all the models like BLR (AUC = 0.874), RF (AUC = 0.886) and RTF-REPTree (AUC = 0.919) have good capability of assessing the deforestation probability but among them, RTF-REPTree has the highest accuracy level. The result also shows that low canopy density area i.e. not under the dense forest cover has increased by 9.26% from 1990 to 2017. Besides, nearly 30% of the forested land is under high to very high deforestation probable zone, which needs to be protected with immediate measures.

Contrasting hydrological seasonality with latitude in the South American Chaco: The roles of climate and vegetation activity

As the largest dry forest of the continent, the South American Chaco covers a broad latitudinal gradient (18°–33°S) with extremely flat topography, homogeneous vegetation structure and similar summer-rain regime. Despite high deforestation rates, Chaco is still dominated by native forests, offering a unique opportunity to explore the role of biophysical controls dictated by latitudinal gradients on its hydrological functioning. In this study, we used GRACE-derived satellite data, climatic information and river flow records to analyse the seasonality of total water storage and its relationship with climatic factors and plant activity across the whole latitudinal gradient of the Chaco region. Our results showed a strong reduction in the intensity and duration of the hydrological dry period towards the southern and more temperate portion in despite similar rainfall seasonality. Mean seasonal fluctuation of water storage was three times higher (119.1 ± 46.0 vs. 38.6 ± 12.4 mm year−1) for the northern (<26°S) than for the southern Chaco portion (>26°S), a pattern that matched the river flow seasonality of the main rivers of the region. A higher temporal coupling of rainfall and actual evapotranspiration towards the south appears to drive the observed latitudinal hydrological shift, highlighting the importance of atmospheric water demand and plant activity regulating the water cycle at Chaco regional scale.

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis).

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species.