Hepatitis Elimination Targets Research Articles

Prevalence of chronic hepatitis C infection in the general population: results from a national survey, Estonia, July to December 2022.

IntroductionObtaining epidemiological data on chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is essential to monitor progress towards the hepatitis C elimination targets.AimWe aimed to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV and the seroprevalence of HCV in the adult general population in Estonia.MethodsThis cross-sectional study, conducted between 12 July and 6 December 2022, included anonymised residual sera collected prospectively from patients 18 years and older visiting a general practitioner in all counties of Estonia. Specimens were considered HCV-seropositive if they tested positive for HCV antibodies by enzyme-linked immunoassay, confirmed by line-immunoblot assay. Chronic HCV infection was determined by positive RT-qPCR.ResultsWe tested a total of 4,217 specimens. The estimated HCV seroprevalence and prevalence of chronic HCV infection were 1.8% (95% CI: 1.4-2.2) and 0.8% (95% CI: 0.5-1.1), respectively, with ca 8,100 persons estimated to have chronic HCV infection in the general adult population of Estonia. No statistically significant differences in the prevalence of chronic HCV infection were observed between sexes, counties or age groups, with the highest prevalence rates observed in men (sex ratio: 1.7), Ida-Virumaa County (1.8%; 95% CI: 0.8-3.6) and the age group 40-49 years (1.7%; 95% CI: 0.9-2.9).ConclusionThis study found an overall low prevalence of chronic HCV infection in Estonia. Continued efforts should be made for the targeted screening, diagnosis and treatment of individuals with chronic HCV infection to achieve hepatitis elimination targets.

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of hepatitis B from 2008 to 2022 in Guangzhou, China

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly prevalent in Guangzhou, China. This study aimed to examine the long-term trend of HB incidence from 2008 to 2022 and the independent impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends. HBV data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Joinpoint regression was utilized to examine temporal trends, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. A total of 327,585 HBV cases were included in this study. The incidence of chronic and acute HB showed a decreasing trend in Guangzhou over the past 15 years, with an average annual percent change of − 4.31% and − 16.87%, respectively. Age, period, and cohort all exerted significant effects. The incidence of HB was higher in males than in females and non-central areas compared to central areas. Age groups of 0–4 years and 15–24 years were identified as high-risk groups. The period relative risks for chronic HB incidence decreased initially and then stabilized. Cohorts born later had lower risks. Chronic HB incidences remain high in Guangzhou, especially among males, younger individuals, and residents of non-central areas. More efforts are still needed to achieve hepatitis elimination targets.

A rapid review of antenatal hepatitis C virus testing in the United Kingdom

BackgroundThe United Kingdom (UK) has committed to the World Health Organization’s viral hepatitis elimination targets. New case finding strategies, such as antenatal testing, may be needed to achieve these targets. We conducted a rapid review to understand hepatitis C-specific antibody (anti-HCV) and HCV RNA test positivity in antenatal settings in the United Kingdom to inform guidance.MethodsArticles and conference abstracts published between January 2000 and June 2022 reporting anti-HCV testing in antenatal settings were identified through PubMed and Web of Science searches. Results were synthesised using a narrative approach.ResultsThe search identified 2,011 publications; 10 studies were included in the final synthesis. Seven studies used anonymous testing methods and three studies used universal opt-out testing. Anti-HCV test positivity ranged from 0.1 to 0.99%, with a median value of 0.38%. Five studies reported HCV RNA positivity, which ranged from 0.1 to 0.57% of the testing population, with a median value of 0.22%. One study reported cost effectiveness of HCV and found it to be cost effective at £9,139 per quality adjusted life years.ConclusionThe relative contribution of universal opt-out antenatal testing for HCV should be reconsidered, as antenatal testing could play an important role in new case-finding and aid achieving elimination targets.

Value-based care models for chronic hepatitis B and C among vulnerable populations: a scoping review

Abstract Background Chronic viral hepatitis B and C are a significant public health burden worldwide. The prevalence of these infections is much higher among migrants than in the general population, due to factors such as inadequate access to healthcare. The EU VH-COMSAVAC project aims to implement community-based HBV/HCV models of care among migrant populations with documented high HBV/HCV incidence and prevalence, using person-centred referral processes. Our study aims to provide an overview of the scientific evidence on value-based models of care for prevention, treatment and linkage-to-care in high-risk groups. Methods This scoping review was performed in the context of the EU VH-COMSAVAC project, following the PRISMA-ScR Checklist, by searching on 5 databases: Medline, EMBASE, GlobalHealth, Scopus and Web of Science. Articles published up to December 2020 investigating models of care targeting migrant populations and related to HBV/HCV prevention, treatment and linkage-to-care, were included. Results Out of a total of 2,767 articles screened, 83 were included and preliminarly categorized according to stages of care (prevention, treatment and linkage-to-care) and Bodenheimer’ pillars. Further investigation will be conducted concerning the dimensions of patient experience; utilized resources; population health; care-team well-being. Conclusions Implementing patient-centered care models for critical public health issues among specific populations is becoming incresingly relevant. This study will provide the conceptual basis for building a value-based assessment tool capable of evaluating new models of care for prevention, treatment and linkage-to-care for hepatitis B/ C in high-risk groups. Key messages • In order to reach viral hepatitis elimination targets, initiatives must pay particular attention to high-risk groups. • The value (population health, patient experience, care-team wellbeing and costs) of such care strategies should be assessed to contribute to their continuity.

Viral hepatitis in Asia-Pacific: a post-COVID-19 reset

Viral hepatitis in Asia-Pacific: a post-COVID-19 reset

Hepatitis B and C mortality from 1990 to 2019 in China: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Significant decreases in hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections have been observed in China, but both remain leading public health challenges. Estimating the components and trends in HBV and HCV mortality is vital for disease control planning. The current analysis investigated time trends in hepatitis B and C mortality and the relationships with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019. We also made projections for 2030-2034 in China. Mortality data related to hepatitis B and C were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which was stratified by complications, age, sex, and specific geographical locations. An age-period-cohort (APC) analytical framework was adopted to measure age, period, and cohort effects, which fits a log-linear Poisson model over a Lexis diagram of observed rates and quantifies the additive effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. We estimated longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), period, and cohort relative risks. A Bayesian APC analysis was used to project future age-specific hepatitis B and C deaths. In China, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of hepatitis B and C decreased by 67% and 58% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The overall annual percentage changes in hepatitis B and C were -4.97% and -6.49% for males and -3.85% and -6.09% for females, respectively. After adjusting for period and cohort effects, we observed an exponential increase in hepatitis C mortality with age, with the Bell-like curves peaking at approximately 50 years old for hepatitis B. The Bayesian APC analysis projected that hepatitis B and C deaths would decrease dramatically by 42% and 22% for the periods 2016-2019 and 2030-2034, respectively. The declines in ASMRs related to hepatitis B and C were associated with the improvements in the Chinese Socio-Demographic Index. Although the burden of hepatitis B and C mortality is likely to continue declining in China, the hepatitis B and C mortality was still high. Therefore, the national efforts should still be strengthened to achieve the global hepatitis elimination targets.

Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence in chronic hepatitis C patients according to sustained virological response (SVR) with interferon‐based therapies and baseline characteristics

AbstractIntroductionHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second most common cause of cancer‐related death worldwide with increasing incidence. Effective antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) became available in the last 7 years but despite the WHO Hepatitis elimination targets, they are not universally available today in all regions for all the patients, indicating still a bleak outlook for CHC‐associated HCC in the next decades.AimTo assess the HCC incidence in relation to interferon (IFN)‐based antiviral treatment response and baseline characteristics of a large cohort of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients from a single institution.MethodsWe retrospectively collected data of CHC patients, who were diagnosed between 1989 and 2011 and treated at the AKH‐University Hospital of Vienna before the introduction of direct‐acting antiviral (DAA) only therapy. We analysed the HCC incidence in patients with a sustained virological response (SVR) and without SVR according to the patients' baseline characteristics.ResultsOur study included 2134 patients, who were treated or not treated with IFN‐based antiviral treatment and had long‐term follow‐up available. The overall HCC incidence in this cohort was 6.2% (132 HCC cases over a median follow‐up period of 9 years). According to the baseline fibrosis stage, the overall HCC incidence was: 1.1% in patients with baseline fibrosis stage F0‐2, 8.2% in F3 and 20.6% in F4 patients. The HCC incidence was significantly higher in non‐SVR and no‐treatment group as compared with SVR patients: 12.4% vs 1.9%, P < .0001, 7.3% vs 1.9%, P < .0001. In multivariate analysis, lower platelet count (odds ratio‐OR = ‐0.1, 95% CI: 0.15‐0.63), for the SVR group and presence of cirrhosis (OR = 3.6, 95% CI: 1.59‐8.17), ALBI grade >=2 (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.0‐5.3) for the non‐SVR group were independently associated with HCC occurrence. For the group of patients with no treatment, the only predictor for HCC was high baseline alpha‐fetoprotein values (OR = 10.2, 95% CI: 2.2‐47.9).ConclusionThe achievement of SVR significantly reduces the risk for HCC occurrence during long‐term follow‐up. However, the risk remains high in successfully treated patients with low platelet count and in patients who did not achieve SVR with more advanced liver disease. These risk factors should be considered in decision‐making of HCC surveillance in this settling.

Clinical utility of the 'Determine HBsAg' Point-of-Care Test for Diagnosis of Hepatitis B Surface Antigen in Africa

ABSTRACT Introduction Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a leading cause of morbidity and death, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where approximately 60 million adults are infected. More than 90% of these patients are unaware of their HBV status. Areas covered Scaling-up of HBV screening programs in SSA are essential to increase diagnosis, linkage to care, and access to treatment, and will ultimately reduce HBV disease burden to achieve WHO hepatitis elimination targets. Such scale up will rely on inexpensive rapid point-of-care (POC) tests, especially in remote areas where gold standard serological assays are not routinely available. This review discusses the diagnostic performance and clinical utility of the Determine™ (Abbott, USA) hepatitis B surface Antigen (HBsAg) POC test for improving HBV screening in SSA, in light with others available HBsAg rapid tests. Expert Opinion The Determine™ HBsAg POC test has demonstrated relatively good diagnostic accuracy at the low cost, in the African field and laboratory and should be used for large scale mass screening of HBV infection in Africa.

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age ≥0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0·7% (95% UI 0·7-0·9), corresponding to 56·8 million (95% UI 55·2-67·8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6·8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63·6 million (61·8-75·8) infections (0·9% [0·8-1·0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12·9 million (12·5-15·4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56·8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, ZeShan Foundation, and The Hepatitis Fund.

Progress towards achieving viral hepatitis B and C elimination in the Asia and Pacific region: Results from modelling and global reporting

In 2016, Asia and Pacific countries endorsed action plans for reaching viral hepatitis elimination targets set in the Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) for Viral Hepatitis 2016-2021. We examine the region's progress by modelling disease burden and constructing the cascade of care. Between 2015 and 2020, chronic HBV prevalence declined from 4.69% to 4.30%, and HCV prevalence declined from 0.64% to 0.58%. The region achieved the 2020 target of 30% incidence reduction for HBV, whereas HCV incidence declined by 6%. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence for HBV and HCV increased by 9% and 7%, respectively. Liver-related deaths from HBV rose by 8%, and mortality attributable to HCV plateaued. Large testing and treatment gaps remained in 2019: only 13% of chronic HBV infections were diagnosed and 25% treated; 21% of chronic HCV infection were diagnosed and 11% treated. Viral hepatitis must become national priority with adequate funding to reach elimination goals by 2030.

Laboratory-based dried blood spot testing for hepatitis C: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy

Background: Diagnosis of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection typically involves collection of venous blood samples prior to serological investigation of an antibody response followed by a confirmatory viral load or antigen test to verify active HCV infection. This conventional pathway poses logistical challenges for the implementation of reflex testing, whereby the confirmatory test is performed on the same sample used for serological investigation. Dried blood spot (DBS) testing, in which capillary blood is deposited on filter paper, is a less invasive alternative that can enable reflex testing without the need for venepuncture, centrifugation and freezing of samples. Methods: This systematic review aims to assess the diagnostic accuracy of DBS compared with venous blood samples for diagnosis of chronic HCV infection. Observational studies which compare diagnostic tests using DBS with those using serum, plasma or whole blood in patients with chronic or resolved HCV infection will be included. Electronic searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Lilacs and the Cochrane library. Citation screening, data extraction and quality appraisal of included studies will be performed in duplicate using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. A meta-analysis will be conducted to derive pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios, negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression will also be performed. Quality of the evidence will be evaluated using the GRADE criteria. Discussion: Identifying and linking people with currently undiagnosed chronic HCV infection to care is pivotal to attaining global viral hepatitis elimination targets. The use of DBS could simplify diagnostic testing strategies by integrating reflex testing into the care pathway and reducing drop-off along the cascade of care. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42020205204. Registered 19 th September 2020.

Hepatitis C in Iceland: a milestone for global elimination

In The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Sigurdur Olafsson and colleagues report that important WHO service coverage targets for elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have been reached in Iceland—the first time they have been achieved in a high-income country.1 Elimination of HCV is defined by WHO as 80% reduction in incidence and 65% reduction in HCV-related mortality compared with a 2015 baseline, and to reach these goals WHO set service coverage targets of 90% of cases being diagnosed and 80% of diagnosed cases being treated.

Progress on the elimination of viral hepatitis in Zimbabwe: A review of the policies, strategies and challenges.

Very few low‐income countries have developed national plans to achieve the viral hepatitis elimination targets set in the World Health Organization (WHO) strategy. We reviewed the policy environment, strategies and challenges on the fight against viral hepatitis in Zimbabwe. The review focussed on the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) policy documents, strategic plans and reports. We performed key informant interviews to enhance evidence generated from the document review. Twelve documents were reviewed and interviews with 10 key informants were completed. The MoHCC established a technical working group to work towards elimination of viral hepatitis. The technical working group drafted a strategic plan for elimination of viral hepatitis; however, it is still awaiting implementation. Key strategies that are working well include screening of donated blood for transfusion, safe injection practices and hepatitis B virus (HBV) three‐dose vaccination. Current challenges in the drive towards elimination of viral hepatitis include poor to non‐existent surveillance systems, lack of epidemiological data, absence of the HBV vaccine birth dose and lack of systematic screening and treatment services for viral hepatitis. In conclusion, despite political will demonstrated towards achieving viral hepatitis elimination, substantial investment and work are required to implement the strategic plan and realize significant success.

The case for simplifying and using absolute targets for viral hepatitis elimination goals.

The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis, embracing a goal to eliminate hepatitis infection as a public health threat by 2030. This was followed by the World Health Organization's (WHO) global targets for the care and management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. These announcements and targets were important in raising awareness and calling for action; however, tracking countries' progress towards these elimination goals has provided insights to the limitations of these targets. The existing targets compare a country's progress relative to its 2015 values, penalizing countries who started their programmes prior to 2015, countries with a young population, or countries with a low prevalence. We recommend that (1) WHO simplify the hepatitis elimination targets, (2) change to absolute targets and (3) allow countries to achieve these disease targets with their own service coverage initiatives that will have the maximum impact. The recommended targets are as follows: reduce HCV new chronic cases to ≤5 per 100000, reduce HBV prevalence among 1-year-olds to ≤0.1%, reduce HBV and HCV mortality to ≤5 per 100000, and demonstrate HBV and HCV year-to-year decrease in new HCV- and HBV-related HCC cases. The objective of our recommendations is not to lower expectations or diminish the hepatitis elimination standards, but to provide clearer targets that recognize the past and current elimination efforts by countries, help measure progress towards true elimination, and motivate other countries to follow suit.

Laboratory-based dried blood spot testing for hepatitis C: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.

Background: Diagnosis of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection typically involves collection of venous blood samples prior to serological investigation of an antibody response followed by a confirmatory viral load or antigen test to verify active HCV infection. This conventional pathway poses logistical challenges for the implementation of reflex testing, whereby the confirmatory test is performed on the same sample used for serological investigation. Dried blood spot (DBS) testing, in which capillary blood is deposited on filter paper, is a less invasive alternative that can enable reflex testing without the need for venepuncture, centrifugation and freezing of samples. Methods: This systematic review aims to assess the diagnostic accuracy of DBS compared with venous blood samples for diagnosis of chronic HCV infection. Observational studies which compare diagnostic tests using DBS with those using serum, plasma or whole blood in patients with chronic or resolved HCV infection will be included. Electronic searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Lilacs and the Cochrane library. Citation screening, data extraction and quality appraisal of included studies will be performed in duplicate using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. A meta-analysis will be conducted to derive pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios, negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios. Sensitivity analyses and meta-regression will also be performed. Quality of the evidence will be evaluated using the GRADE criteria. Discussion: Identifying and linking people with currently undiagnosed chronic HCV infection to care is pivotal to attaining global viral hepatitis elimination targets. The use of DBS could simplify diagnostic testing strategies by integrating reflex testing into the care pathway and reducing drop-off along the cascade of care. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42020205204. Registered 19 th September 2020.

Loss to follow-up in the hepatitis C care cascade: A substantial problem but opportunity for micro-elimination.

Since the advent of direct‐acting antivirals, elimination of hepatitis C viral (HCV) infections seems within reach. However, studies on the HCV cascade of care show suboptimal progression through each step for all patient groups. Loss to follow‐up (LTFU) is a major issue and is a barrier to HCV elimination. This review summarizes the scale of the LTFU problem and proposes a micro‐elimination approach. Retrieving LTFU patients and re‐engaging them with care again has shown to be feasible in the Netherlands. Micro‐elimination through retrieval can contribute to reaching the World Health Organization's viral hepatitis elimination targets by 2030.

Screening Emergency Admissions at Risk of Chronic Hepatitis C (SEARCH) to diagnose or 're-diagnose' infections is effective in Australia.

The World Health Organization has set ambitious viral hepatitis elimination targets; however, difficulties in identifying and engaging patients remain. The emergency visit is an opportunity for enhanced linkage to care (LTC). We assessed the effectiveness of an automated Emergency Department (ED) screening service in identifying patients with hepatitis C (HCV) and achieving LTC. A retrospective evaluation was undertaken, analysing the first 5000 patients screened through an automatic Australian service termed 'Screening Emergency Admissions at Risk of Chronic Hepatitis' (SEARCH). Screening was performed for those recommended in the Australian national testing policy, specifically overseas born (OB) and Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI). Healthcare worker education, patient information materials and opt-out informed consent were used to test sera already collected for biochemistry assays. 5000 of 5801 (86.2%) consecutive eligible patients were screened (OB: 4778, ATSI: 222) from 14093 ED presentations. HCV antibody was positive in 181 patients (3.6%); 51 (1.0%) were HCV RNA positive. Of 51 HCV RNA-positive patients, 12 were new diagnoses, 32 were 're-diagnoses' (aware but lost to follow-up [LTFU]), and 7 were previously known but treatment contraindicated. LTC was successful in 38 viraemic patients (7 deceased, 4 LTFU, 1 treatment ineligible and 1 declined). Of RNA-negative patients, 75 were previously treated and 49 had presumed spontaneous clearance. Opt-out consent was acceptable to all patients and staff involved. ED screening can lead to additional diagnosing and 're-diagnosing' of HCV, with high rates of LTC. Opt-out consent and automation removed major obstacles to testing.

Treatment advantage in HBV/HIV coinfection compared to HBV monoinfection in a South African cohort

ObjectivesPrompted by international targets for elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV), we set out to characterise individuals with HBV monoinfection vs. those coinfected with HBV/HIV, to evaluate the impact of therapy and to guide improvements in clinical care. MethodsWe report observational data from a real world cross-sectional cohort of 115 adults with chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB), at a university hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. HIV coinfection was present in 39 (34%) subjects. We recorded cross-sectional demographic, clinical and laboratory data. ResultsCompared to those with HIV coinfection, HBV monoinfected adults were less likely to be HBeAg-positive (p=0.01), less likely to have had assessment with elastography (p<0.0001), and less likely to be on antiviral treatment (p<0.0001); they were more likely to have detectable HBV viraemia (p=0.04), and more likely to have features of liver disease including moderate/severe thrombocytopaenia (p=0.007), elevated bilirubin (p=0.004), and elevated APRI score (p=0.02). Three cases of hepatocellular carcinoma all arose in HBV monoinfection. ConclusionsOur data demonstrate that individuals with HBV monoinfection may be disadvantaged compared to those with HIV coinfection, highlighting potential systematic inequities in referral, monitoring and treatment.

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning.

BackgroundIn 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world’s population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions.MethodsA dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs.ResultsDespite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested.ConclusionsIncreases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

Mass migration to Europe: an opportunity for elimination of hepatitis B virus?

People from low-to-middle income countries have been migrating to western Europe on a large scale in recent years. Data indicate that the number of first-time asylum applications by non-EU members increased from 290 000 in 2011 to more than 1·3 million in 2015. During the peak period of migration, The Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis was adopted by WHO. Viral hepatitis, and particularly hepatitis B virus (HBV), is an important disease because of its high prevalence and associated mortality. In some cases, HBV can be carried by refugees arriving from regions of high and intermediate prevalence. Refugees with HBV might not show clinical symptoms and not be diagnosed in destination countries with a low prevalence, where screening is not regularly done. Although transmission to the host population is low, dedicated surveillance and tailored public health policies are required. It is important to note that some of the countries that receive many migrants do not have a universal HBV vaccination programme. In this Viewpoint, we argue that the current large-scale movement from regions with high or intermediate HBV prevalence should be taken as an opportunity to achieve viral hepatitis elimination targets, by establishing a well prepared infrastructure for HBV screening, vaccination, and treatment.