Heidke Skill Score Research Articles

Seasonal precipitation forecast over Mexico based on a hybrid statistical–dynamical approach

We introduce a new hybrid scheme for seasonal precipitation prediction over the Mexican territory. The scheme takes as input sea surface temperature (SST) predicted from the ECMWF System 4 coupled model (Sys4) identifying three predictors, namely SST over the western Pacific (WP), eastern Pacific (EP) and tropical Atlantic (TA); these predictors are used to forecast precipitation on a high‐resolution grid via a multiple regression model. Comparison of the performance of the hybrid scheme with the Sys4 model for ensemble re‐forecasts for the period 1982–2010 shows that the hybrid model adds skill to the Sys4 forecast, with higher correlations and Heidke skill scores throughout most of the Mexican territory, both in winter and summer. In winter the contribution of the EP is dominant in modulating precipitation via the effects of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while in summer the contributions of the WP and TA are dominant in different Mexican regions. The hybrid scheme, applied to high‐resolution precipitation observations, also produces significant fine‐scale variability of forecast skill and mechanism contributions. Overall, we show that our hybrid approach can provide a useful tool to improve seasonal precipitation forecasts over Mexico.

Evaluation of Heavy Precipitation Simulated by the WRF Model Using 4D-Var Data Assimilation with TRMM 3B42 and GPM IMERG over the Huaihe River Basin, China

To obtain independent, consecutive, and high-resolution precipitation data, the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) method was applied to directly assimilate satellite precipitation products into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The precipitation products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 (TRMM 3B42) and its successor, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) were assimilated in this study. Two heavy precipitation events that occurred over the Huaihe River basin in eastern China were studied. Before assimilation, the WRF model simulations were first performed with different forcing data to select more suitable forcing data and determine the control experiments for the subsequent assimilation experiments. Then, TRMM 3B42 and GPM IMERG were separately assimilated into the WRF. The simulated precipitation results in the outer domain (D01), with a 27-km resolution, and the inner domain (D02), with a 9-km resolution, were evaluated in detail. The assessments showed that (1) 4D-Var with TRMM 3B42 or GPM IMERG could both significantly improve WRF precipitation predictions at a time interval of approximately 12 h; (2) the WRF simulated precipitation assimilated with GPM IMERG outperformed the one with TRMM 3B42; (3) for the WRF output precipitation assimilated with GPM IMERG over D02, which has spatiotemporal resolutions of 9 km and 50 s, the correlation coefficients of the studied events in August and November were 0.74 and 0.51, respectively, at the point and daily scales, and the mean Heidke skill scores for the two studied events both reached 0.31 at the grid and hourly scales. This study can provide references for the assimilation of TRMM 3B42 or GPM IMERG into the WRF model using 4D-Var, which is especially valuable for hydrological applications of GPM IMERG during the transition period from the TRMM era into the GPM era.

A Hybrid Approach for Fog Retrieval Based on a Combination of Satellite and Ground Truth Data

Fog has a substantial influence on various ecosystems and it impacts economy, traffic systems and human life in many ways. In order to be able to deal with the large number of influence factors, a spatially explicit high-resoluted data set of fog frequency distribution is needed. In this study, a hybrid approach for fog retrieval based on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data and ground truth data is presented. The method is based on a random forest (RF) machine learning model that is trained with cloud base altitude (CBA) observations from Meteorological Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR) as well as synoptic weather observations (SYNOP). Fog is assumed where the model predicts CBA values below a dynamically derived threshold above the terrain elevation. Cross validation results show good accordance with observation data with a mean absolute error of 298 m in CBA values and an average Heidke Skill Score of 0.58 for fog occurrence. Using this technique, a 10 year fog baseline climatology with a temporal resolution of 15 min was derived for Europe for the period from 2006 to 2015. Spatial and temporal variations in fog frequency are analyzed. Highest average fog occurrences are observed in mountainous regions with maxima in spring and summer. Plains and lowlands show less overall fog occurrence but strong positive anomalies in autumn and winter.

Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-real-time (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012 - 2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several Machine Learning (ML) and Conventional Statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude >M1 and >C1, within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM) and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best performing method gives accuracy ACC=0.93(0.00), true skill statistic TSS=0.74(0.02) and Heidke skill score HSS=0.49(0.01) for >M1 flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and ACC=0.84(0.00), TSS=0.60(0.01) and HSS=0.59(0.01) for >C1 flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

Drought class transitions over a sector of Eastern Europe were modeled using log-linear models. These drought class transitions were computed from time series of two widely used multiscale drought indices, the Standardized Preipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with temporal scales of 6 and 12 months for 15 points selected from a grid over the Prut basin in Romania over a period of 112 years (1902–2014). The modeling also took into account the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exploring the potential influence of this large-scale atmospheric driver on the climate of the Prut region. To assess the probability of transition among different drought classes we computed their odds and the corresponding confidence intervals. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of the modeling, skill scores were computed and used for comparison against benchmark models, namely using persistence forecasts or modeling without the influence of the NAO index. The main results indicate that the log-linear modeling performs consistently better than the persistence forecast, and the highest improvements obtained in the skill scores with the introduction of the NAO predictor in the modeling are obtained when modeling the extended winter months of the SPEI6 and SPI12. The improvements are however not impressive, ranging between 4.7 and 6.8 for the SPEI6 and between 4.1 and 10.1 for the SPI12, in terms of the Heidke skill score.

Application of a hybrid association rules/decision tree model for drought monitoring

The previous researches have shown that the incorporation of the oceanic-atmospheric climate phenomena such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) into hydro-climatic models could provide important predictive information about hydro-climatic variability. In this paper, the hybrid application of two data mining techniques (decision tree and association rules) was offered to discover affiliation between drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations (located in Iran) and de-trend SSTs of the Black, Mediterranean and Red Seas. Two major steps of the proposed model were the classification of de-trend SST data and selecting the most effective groups and extracting hidden information involved in the data. The techniques of decision tree which can identify the good traits from a data set for the classification purpose were used for classification and selecting the most effective groups and association rules were employed to extract the hidden predictive information from the large observed data. To examine the accuracy of the rules, confidence and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) measures were calculated and compared for different considering lag times. The computed measures confirm reliable performance of the proposed hybrid data mining method to forecast drought and the results show a relative correlation between the Mediterranean, Black and Red Sea de-trend SSTs and drought of Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations so that the confidence between the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and the de-trend SST of seas is higher than 70 and 80% respectively for Tabriz and Kermanshah synoptic stations.

On the Detection of Hail Using Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometers and Precipitation Radar

AbstractIn previous studies, remote sensing properties of hailstorms have been discussed using various spaceborne sensors. Relationships between hail occurrence and strong passive microwave brightness temperature depressions have been established. Using a 16-yr precipitation-feature database derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the performance of the TRMM Precipitation Radar and TRMM Microwave Imager is further investigated for hail detection. Detection criteria for hail larger than 19 mm are separately developed from Ku-band radar reflectivity and microwave brightness temperature properties of precipitation features that are collocated with surface hail reports over the southeastern and south-central United States. A threshold of 44 dBZ at −22°C is found to have the highest critical success index and Heidke skill score. The threshold of 230 K at 37 GHz yields the best scores among passive microwave properties. Using these two thresholds, global distributions of possible hail events are generated over 65°S–65°N using two years of observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory satellite. Differences in the derived hail geographical distributions are found between radar and passive microwave methods over tropical South America, the “Maritime Continent,” west-central Africa, Argentina, and South Africa. These discrepancies result from different vertical structures of the maximum radar reflectivity profiles over these regions relative to the southeastern and south-central United States, where the thresholds were established. Those differences generally led to overestimates in the tropics from the passive microwave methods, relative to the radar-based methods.

Evaluation of Thunderstorm Predictors for Finland Using Reanalyses and Neural Networks

AbstractThis work evaluates numerous thunderstorm predictors and investigates the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for identifying occurrences of thunderstorms in reanalysis data. Environmental conditions favorable for deep, moist convection are derived from 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalyses, while thunderstorm occurrence in the following 6 h over Finland is derived from lightning location data. By taking advantage of the consistency and large sample size (14 summers) provided by the reanalysis, complex multivariate models can be trained for a robust estimation of convective weather events from model data. This and other methods are used to yield information on the most effective convective predictors in a multivariate setting, which can also benefit the forecasting community. The best ANN found uses 15 inputs and received a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.51 on an independent test sample. This is a substantial improvement over the best predictor when used alone, the most unstable lifted index (MULI) with HSS = 0.40, the multivariate model having fewer false alarms in particular. After MULI, the most important ANN input was relative humidity near 700 hPa. Dry air aloft was associated with significantly lower thunderstorm probability and flash density regardless of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Other important parameters for thunderstorm development were vertical velocity and low-level θe advection. Finally, the Peirce skill score indicates a clear meridional gradient in skill for categorical forecasts, with higher skill in northern Finland. This analysis suggests that the difference in skill is real and associated with a steeper thunderstorm probability curve in the north, but further studies are needed for a physical explanation.

Thunderstorm hail and lightning detection parameters based on dual‐polarization Doppler weather radar data

ABSTRACTFour years (2011–2014) of the summer period (May–September) dual‐polarization Doppler C‐band weather radar data for Sürgavere, Estonia, were examined to determine the best indicator for cloud‐to‐ground lightning activity. Furthermore, the legacy radar‐derived hail indicator probability of hail and the storm maximum reflectivity were compared with the polarimetric hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) to establish a link between them and ensure data continuity. The study is based on convective storm cells identified from radar reflectivity data, using a 35 dBZ reflectivity threshold. Applying this threshold to the radar data resulted in 123 360 individual storm cells. It was found that 33.9% of the identified cells produced lightning and 25.9% hail. The number of individual storm cells on average is highest in the afternoon at 1600 local time and the mean storm cell area is largest in the evening at 2100 local time. Echo top 15 dBZ (ET15), ET20 and ET25 achieved the highest scores in terms of critical success index (0.39, 0.39 and 0.38 respectively), Heidke skill score (0.24, 0.26, 0.27) and equitable threat score (0.14, 0.15, 0.16). The graupel class of the dual‐polarization radar hydrometeor classification showed a similar performance to the 35 dBZ echo top. It was also shown that the reflectivity value just below 50 dBZ indicates the best skill for detection of hail, if HCA hail detection is used as the ground truth. The probability of hail value that shows the best agreement with the HCA hail class is 0.2.

Satellite-based high-resolution mapping of rainfall over southern Africa

Abstract. A spatially explicit mapping of rainfall is necessary for southern Africa for eco-climatological studies or nowcasting but accurate estimates are still a challenging task. This study presents a method to estimate hourly rainfall based on data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Rainfall measurements from about 350 weather stations from 2010–2014 served as ground truth for calibration and validation. SEVIRI and weather station data were used to train neural networks that allowed the estimation of rainfall area and rainfall quantities over all times of the day. The results revealed that 60 % of recorded rainfall events were correctly classified by the model (probability of detection, POD). However, the false alarm ratio (FAR) was high (0.80), leading to a Heidke skill score (HSS) of 0.18. Estimated hourly rainfall quantities were estimated with an average hourly correlation of ρ = 0. 33 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.72. The correlation increased with temporal aggregation to 0.52 (daily), 0.67 (weekly) and 0.71 (monthly). The main weakness was the overestimation of rainfall events. The model results were compared to the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Despite being a comparably simple approach, the presented MSG-based rainfall retrieval outperformed GPM IMERG in terms of rainfall area detection: GPM IMERG had a considerably lower POD. The HSS was not significantly different compared to the MSG-based retrieval due to a lower FAR of GPM IMERG. There were no further significant differences between the MSG-based retrieval and GPM IMERG in terms of correlation with the observed rainfall quantities. The MSG-based retrieval, however, provides rainfall in a higher spatial resolution. Though estimating rainfall from satellite data remains challenging, especially at high temporal resolutions, this study showed promising results towards improved spatio-temporal estimates of rainfall over southern Africa.

Using Satellite and Lightning Data to Track Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms in Data Sparse Regions

Radar systems provide the most useful information about the intensity, movement, and characteristics of severe thunderstorms, but are expensive to maintain and require extensive maintenance. In South Africa, some areas are not covered by radar systems, while very few operational radar systems exist in other southern African countries. Despite these shortcomings, all meteorological centers still have to warn the public of pending severe weather events. The Nowcasting Satellite Application Facility (NWC SAF) in Europe developed software that utilizes satellite data to identify and track rapidly developing thunderstorms (RDT). The NWC software was installed at the South African Weather Service in 2014. Initially, the RDT product was validated against lightning data and the results showed that the RDT product could provide very useful information on possible severe or intense convective storms. This study focusses on the effects of including lightning as an ancillary dataset into the algorithms and then validating the RDT product against radar data. Twenty-five summer cases were considered to determine whether the inclusion of lightning data had a positive effect on the accuracy of the RDT product, when compared to radar data. The results of this study show that in the majority of the cases, the inclusion of lightning data was beneficial to the RDT product. On average the Probability of Detection (POD) improved by 6.6%, the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) by 4.6%, and the False alarm ratio (FAR) by 0.1%. To our knowledge, South Africa is the only African country which is running the NWC SAF software operationally and which has performed an evaluation of the product over Africa against observations from radar systems and lightning sensors. The outcomes of this study are very encouraging for other countries in Africa where convection and severe convection often occur and sophisticated data sources are absent. Initial studies over East Africa indicate that the RDT product can benefit operational practices for the nowcasting of severe convection events.

Solid hydrometeor classification and riming degree estimation from pictures collected with a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

Abstract. A new method to automatically classify solid hydrometeors based on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) images is presented. For each individual image, the method relies on the calculation of a set of geometric and texture-based descriptors to simultaneously identify the hydrometeor type (among six predefined classes), estimate the degree of riming and detect melting snow. The classification tasks are achieved by means of a regularized multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model trained over more than 3000 MASC images manually labeled by visual inspection. In a second step, the probabilistic information provided by the MLR is weighed on the three stereoscopic views of the MASC in order to assign a unique label to each hydrometeor. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on data collected in the Swiss Alps and in Antarctica. The algorithm achieves high performance, with a hydrometeor-type classification accuracy and Heidke skill score of 95 % and 0.93, respectively. The degree of riming is evaluated by introducing a riming index ranging between zero (no riming) and one (graupel) and characterized by a probable error of 5.5 %. A validation study is conducted through a comparison with an existing classification method based on two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) data and shows that the two methods are consistent.

Verification of operational rainfall forecast over eastern India during southwest monsoon season

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast and its verification has a direct impact on various sectors of public interest besides economy of the country. The present study highlights the verification of distribution forecast of synoptic method issued daily for six met subdivisions, comprising of five states of eastern India namely West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha. Three years monsoon season rainfall data from 2011 through 2013 are used for the study area. The distribution-oriented verification is done for different rainfall classes like dry, isolated, scattered, fairly widespread and widespread to understand the usefulness of the synoptic method. Statistics are presented for both combined classes of Percentage Correct (PC) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of the met subdivision wise forecast and PC, POD and CSI for individual classes. It has been observed that among the met subdivision the efficiency of the method is highest in Sub Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) & Sikkim followed by Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar.

Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall and analysis of hazardous snowfall events over Indian Himalaya

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six observations and six states of the model. The most probable observation and state sequence has been computed using Forward and Viterbi algorithms, respectively. Baum–Welch algorithm has been used for optimizing the model parameters. The model has been validated for two winters (2012–2013 and 2013–2014) by computing root mean square error (RMSE), accuracy measures such as percent correct (PC), critical success index (CSI) and Heidke skill score (HSS). The RMSE of the model has also been calculated using leave-one-out cross-validation method. Snowfall predicted by the model during hazardous snowfall events in different parts of the Himalaya matches well with the observed one. The HSS of the model for all the stations implies that the optimized model has better forecasting skill than random forecast for both the days. The RMSE of the optimized model has also been found smaller than the persistence forecast and standard deviation for both the days.

Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1–0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000–2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.

Spatial patterns of thermodynamic conditions of hailstorms in southwestern France

Southwestern France is one of the European regions with higher frequency of hail and substantial losses. The Association Nationale d'Etude et de Lutte contre les Fleáux Atmosphériques (ANELFA) maintains a hailpad network there in continuous operation, creating an extensive database for the study of hail. We aimed to create a new forecast tool to improve hailfall detection and determine its spatiotemporal distribution in the region. Using a database of 92 hail days between 2001 and 2010, we obtained vertical profiles of temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity from WRF model simulation. After validating these by comparison with radiosonde profiles from Bordeaux at 1200 UTC, 31 stability indexes were obtained for a point representative of the entire study area. These indexes were introduced in a binary logistic regression model, which selected the most accurate ones for detecting hail days in the region, namely, the Showalter index, dew point temperature at 850hPa, and TQ index. A logistic equation to distinguish between hail and hail-free days was constructed by combining these indexes. Results show a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, false alarm ratio (FAR) of 16.7%, and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.696. The logistic equation was then applied to the entire study zone, and the results were introduced in a cluster analysis. Four clusters of hail days were obtained according to the spatial patterns of atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and probability of hail. The average distribution of hail for each cluster shows a strong similarity with the distribution of impacted hailpads from the ANELFA network. The average synoptic environment, monthly distribution and hail characteristics at the surface were also analyzed for each cluster. Cluster 1 (August) was the least frequent, with small and weak hailfalls. Cluster 2 (June and July) and 3 (May and September) had the most intense hail events, while cluster 3 and 4 (May) had the most extensive areas affected. The new forecast tool shows satisfactory results and complements other studies in the same region, and it can be a useful tool for operational forecasters in predicting hail days and determining the spatial distribution of hailfalls.

A novel approach to accelerate calibration process of a [formula omitted]-nearest neighbours classifier using GPU

General purpose data parallel computing with graphical processing unit (GPU) is much structured today with NVIDIA® CUDA and other parallel programming frameworks. Exploiting the CUDA programming framework, the present work proposes a novel methodology formulated around the GPU hardware architecture and memory hierarchy to accelerate the calibration process of a classification model named eNN10. Primarily developed for avalanche forecasting, eNN10 is based on brute force k-nearest neighbours (k-NN) approach and employs snow-meteorological variables to search for past days with similar conditions. The events associated with past similar days are then analysed to generate forecast. The model is required to be calibrated regularly to ensure higher degree of forecast accuracy in terms of Heidke skill score (HSS). The calibration of eNN10 is carried out by Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, a swarm intelligence driven population based metaheuristic algorithm, and it requires thousands of HSS evaluations during the complete calibration process. A MATLAB sequential code for calibration runs for over 400 minutes and the proposed methodology delivered about 10× acceleration in calibration process. The methodology combines primitives of parallel implementations of brute force k-NN algorithm with that of population based metaheuristic algorithms and is scalable to deal with other similar real-world problems. The major objective of this paper is to highlight the methodology and associated future research areas.

Coupling the atmospheric model RAMS 6.0 /ECHAM 4.1 to hydrologic model SMA/HMS for operating a reservoir in Brazil’s semiarid

ABSTRACT The planning and the efficiency of water resources are subject to the uncertainties of the input data of climate and hydrological models. Prediction of water inflow to reservoirs that would help decision making for the various water uses, contain uncertainties fundamentally the initial conditions assumed in the modeled processes. This paper evaluates the coupling of a regional atmospheric model with a hydrological model to make streamflow forecast for seasonal operation of Orós reservoir, Ceará State, Brazil. RAMS model, version 6.0, was forced by the ECHAM 4.5 atmospheric general circulation model over Alto Jaguaribe basin to obtain the rainfall data. To remove biases in the simulated precipitation fields was applied the probability density function (PDF) correction on them. Then the corrected precipitation data were inserted in the hydrologic Soil Moisture Account (SMA) model from the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). For SMA calibration, it was used the Nash-Sutcliffe objective function. Finally, decisions to water release from the Orós were evaluated using the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). The SMA model showed a satisfactory performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values of 0.92 (0.87) in the calibration (validation) phase, indicating that it is a rainfall runoff model alternative. For decisions in releasing water from the Orós reservoir, using climate predictions, obtained HSS = 0.43. The results show that the simulated rainfall coupled with a hydrological model is able to represent the hydrological operation of Brazilian semiarid reservoir.

Potential to improve precipitation forecasts in Texas through the incorporation of multiple teleconnections

ABSTRACTClimate oscillations are one of the primary factors that influence precipitation. This study uses canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to examine how El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Pacific‐North American pattern influence precipitation in Texas. This study identifies the months, regions, and time lags where the relationships between climate oscillations and precipitation are strongest. Correlation results indicate that ENSO accounts for the greatest amount of precipitation variance in Texas. However, including all five climate oscillations is important and together they account for a greater amount of the variance in precipitation than any individual climate oscillation. Precipitation in southern Texas is more strongly influenced by climate oscillations than other regions in Texas. The CCA results demonstrate that there are statistically significant relationships between the climate oscillations and precipitation at time lags longer than 6 months during the summer and at time lags shorter than 6 months during the winter. Based on the CCA results, a precipitation forecast model was developed for the three climate regions that we defined. In the cases of January, the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of our model is comparable or higher to those achieved by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in each region. For all of the 36 month/region cases (12 months × 3 regions), there are 50% cases that the HSS of our model is comparable or higher to those achieved by the CPC. The results of this study illustrate that including multiple teleconnections can increase forecast skill, and statistical methods are useful for precipitation forecasting at a 0‐month lead time.

Offshore wind turbine clutter characteristics and identification in operational C‐band weather radar measurements

The aim of this work is to update ground‐clutter classification methods in weather radar rainfall measurements to more accurately identify clutter pixels from wind farms. Measurements from two dual‐polarised weather radars, based in the United Kingdom, will be used to determine the characteristics of multiple wind farms in the North Sea and the Irish Sea. Currently 21 of the top 25 largest offshore wind farms are located in these regions. The extensive area occupied by the wind farms creates problems for weather radars located in the neighbouring European countries. Datasets of wind‐farm, precipitation and ground‐clutter pixels were aggregated from Thurnham Radar measurements to form novel membership functions that can be used in a fuzzy logic classification system to identify wind‐farm clutter. When only ground‐clutter datasets were used for classification, areas of the radar scans taken up by wind‐farm clutter were misclassified as rainfall. The inclusion of wind‐farm measurements led to an increase in the ability of the algorithm to detect these pixels as clutter, as the Heidke Skill Score increased from 67.4 to 97.8%. However there was a slight increase in the number of precipitation pixels incorrectly classified as clutter, with the false alarm rate increasing from 0.05 to 1.24% when all variables are used. The algorithm performed slightly better when applied to another radar on Hameldon Hill, showing promise for application to the UK network without recalibration of membership functions.