Health Economic Assessment Research Articles

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost-Utility Analyses of Antireflux Medicine

Laparoscopic antireflux surgery and medical therapy with proton pump inhibitors are gold standards of gastroesophageal reflux treatment. On account of limited resources and increasing healthcare needs and costs, in this analysis, not only optimal medical results, but also superiority in health economics of these 2 methods are evaluated. We performed an electronic literature survey in MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, ISRCTN (International Standard Randomization Controlled Trial Number) as well as in the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, including studies published until 1/2017. Only studies considering the effect size of QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Years) (with respect to different quality of life-scores) as primary outcome comparing laparoscopic fundoplication and medical therapy were included. Criteria of comparison were ICER (Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio) and ICUR (Incremental Cost-Utility Ratio). Superiority of the respective treatment option for each publication was worked out. In total, 18 comparative studies were identified in the current literature with respect to above-mentioned search terms, qualifying for the defined inclusion criteria. Six studies were finally selected for analyses. Out of 6 publications, 3 showed superiority of laparoscopic fundoplication over long-term medical management based on current cost-effectiveness data. Limitations were related to different time intervals, levels of evidence of studies and underlying resources/costs of analyses, healthcare systems and applied quality of life instruments. Future prospective, randomized trials should examine this comparison in greater detail. Additionally, there is a large potential for further research in the health economics assessment of early diagnosis and prevention measures of reflux disease and Barrett's esophagus/carcinoma.

Cost-benefit analysis of antibiofilm microbiological techniques for peri-prosthetic joint infection diagnosis

BackgroundImplant-related infections, including those of peri-prosthetic joint (PJIs), osteosynthesis and other biomaterials, are biofilm-related. Pathogen identification is considered the diagnostic benchmark; however, the presence of bacterial biofilms makes pathogen detection with traditional microbiological techniques only partially effective. To improve microbiological diagnostic accuracy, some biofilm debonding techniques have been recently proposed. Aim of this health economics assessment study was to evaluate their economic impact on hospital costs.MethodsDirect and indirect hospital costs connected with the routine introduction of sonication and dithiothreitol treatment applied to hip and knee PJIs and of tissue cultures were examined. In particular the consequences of diagnostic inaccuracy, the opportunities, costs, and risks of each technique were calculated.ResultsConsidering an average of five samples per patient, processed separately with traditional tissue culture with or without sonication of prosthetic components, or pooled together using the MicroDTTect device (a close system for sample collection, transport and treatment with Dithiothreitol for microbial release from biofilm), the overall mean direct cost per patient was € 397 and € 393 for sonication or MicroDTTect, respectively, compared to € 308 for traditional tissue cultures. In terms of opportunity costs, MicroDTTect was the most effective technique, allowing for a 35% or 55% reduction in time required for sample treatment, compared to tissue cultures combined or not with sonication, respectively.Pooling together direct and indirect costs associated with false positive and negative results of the different diagnostic techniques, unnecessary medical treatments and possible medical claims, MicroDTTect or sonication become increasingly cost-effective when the extra-costs, generated by diagnostic inaccuracy of traditional tissue culture, took place, respectively, in 2% or 20% or more of the patients.ConclusionsThis is the first study specifically focused on the economic impact of the routine clinical use of microbiological antibiofilm sampling and processing techniques in orthopaedics. Although our results may suffer from a potential country and hospital bias, as the data collection process for direct and indirect costs is specific to each institution and country, this analysis highlights the potential economic advantage to hospitals associated with the routine introduction of antibiofilm techniques for microbiological diagnosis of PJI.

Economic data for particle therapy: Dealing with different needs in a heterogeneous landscape

BackgroundIn the light of scarce resources to be allocated for cancer care and a steady stream of costly innovations in all modalities applied to treat cancer, particle therapy needs to demonstrate its cost-utility balance to allow its positioning in the context of competing modalities. In the continuous evolving particle therapy landscape, the timely availability of appropriate economic data is crucial. MethodsEconomic data collection and compilation for particle therapy needs to follow health economic standards. Costing related analyses particularly need attention as clinical outcome data follow international standards to provide comparability. Among others, perspective, time horizons and cost categories are critical. ResultsIn this report from the “Health Economics Work Package” of the European Particle Therapy Network, the approaches commonly applied in health economic assessments are described and tailored to the specific needs of particle therapy. Data collection for cost calculation, economic evaluation and budget impact analysis are discussed. ConclusionThe presented data are intended to serve as a guidance for economic data collection, bearing in mind that in each specific case, the heterogeneous requirements of national health systems will need to be considered and assessments adapted accordingly.

The health impacts of energy performance investments in low-income areas: a mixed-methods approach

BackgroundCold homes and fuel poverty contribute to health inequalities in ways that could be addressed through energy efficiency interventions.ObjectivesTo determine the health and psychosocial impacts of energy performance investments in low-income areas, particularly hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions, prevalence of respiratory symptoms and mental health status, hydrothermal conditions and household energy use, psychosocial outcomes, cost consequences to the health system and the cost utility of these investments.DesignA mixed-methods study comprising data linkage (25,908 individuals living in 4968 intervention homes), a field study with a controlled pre-/post-test design (intervention,n = 418; control,n = 418), a controlled multilevel interrupted time series analysis of internal hydrothermal conditions (intervention,n = 48; control,n = 40) and a health economic assessment.SettingLow-income areas across Wales.ParticipantsResidents who received energy efficiency measures through the intervention programme and matched control groups.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcomes – emergency hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions, self-reported respiratory symptoms, mental health status, indoor air temperature and indoor relative humidity. Secondary outcomes – emergency hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related cardiorespiratory conditions, excess winter admissions, health-related quality of life, subjective well-being, self-reported fuel poverty, financial stress and difficulties, food security, social interaction, thermal satisfaction and self-reported housing conditions.MethodsAnonymously linked individual health records for emergency hospital admissions were analysed using mixed multilevel linear models. A quasi-experimental controlled field study used a multilevel repeated measures approach. Controlled multilevel interrupted time series analyses were conducted to estimate changes in internal hydrothermal conditions following the intervention. The economic evaluation comprised cost–consequence and cost–utility analyses.Data sourcesThe Patient Episode Database for Wales 2005–14, intervention records from 28 local authorities and housing associations, and scheme managers who delivered the programme.ResultsThe study found no evidence of changes in physical health. However, there were improvements in subjective well-being and a number of psychosocial outcomes. The household monitoring study found that the intervention raised indoor temperature and helped reduce energy use. No evidence was found of substantial increases in indoor humidity levels. The health economic assessment found no explicit cost reductions to the health service as a result of non-significant changes in emergency admissions for cardiorespiratory conditions.LimitationsThis was a non-randomised intervention study with household monitoring and field studies that relied on self-response. Data linkage focused on emergency admissions only.ConclusionAlthough there was no evidence that energy performance investments provide physical health benefits or reduce health service usage, there was evidence that they improve social and economic conditions that are conducive to better health and improved subjective well-being. The intervention has been successful in reducing energy use and improving the living conditions of households in low-income areas. The lack of association of emergency hospital admissions with energy performance investments means that we were unable to evidence cost saving to health-service providers.Future workOur research suggests the importance of incorporating evaluations with follow-up into intervention research from the start.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Health economic assessment of Gd-EOB-DTPA MRI versus ECCM-MRI and multi-detector CT for diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in China

Limited data exists in China on the comparative cost of gadolinium ethoxybenzyl diethylenetriamine magnetic resonance imaging (Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI) with other imaging techniques. This study compared the total cost of Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) and extracellular contrast media–enhanced MRI (ECCM-MRI) as initial imaging procedures in patients with suspected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We developed a decision-tree model on the basis of the Chinese clinical guidelines for HCC, which was validated by clinical experts from China. The model compared the diagnostic accuracy and costs of alternative initial imaging procedures. Compared with MDCT and ECCM-MRI, Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI imaging was associated with higher rates of diagnostic accuracy, i.e. higher proportions of true positives (TP) and true negatives (TN) with lower false positives (FP). Total diagnosis and treatment cost per patient after the initial Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI evaluation was similar to MDCT (¥30,360 vs. ¥30,803) and lower than that reported with ECCM-MRI (¥30,360 vs. ¥31,465). Lower treatment cost after initial Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI was driven by reduced utilization of confirmatory diagnostic procedures and unnecessary treatments. The findings reported that Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI offered higher diagnostic accuracy compared with MDCT and ECCM-MRI at a comparable cost, which indicates Gd-EOB-DTPA-MRI could be the preferred initial imaging procedure for the diagnosis of HCC in China.

Impacts of Bicycle Infrastructure in Mid-Sized Cities (IBIMS): protocol for a natural experiment study in three Canadian cities

IntroductionBicycling is promoted as a transportation and population health strategy globally. Yet bicycling has low uptake in North America (1%–2% of trips) compared with European bicycling cities (15%–40% of trips)...

The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review

BackgroundChanges to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs.MethodsWe searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables.ResultsWe identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified.ConclusionsEarly warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there is a lack of high quality comparative studies to examine the effect of using early warning systems on patient outcomes. Such studies should include health economics assessments.

Reconciling ethical and economic conceptions of value in health policy using the capabilities approach: A qualitative investigation of Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing

When evaluating new morally complex health technologies, policy decision-makers consider a broad range of different evaluations, which may include the technology's clinical effectiveness, cost effectiveness, and social or ethical implications. This type of holistic assessment is challenging, because each of these evaluations may be grounded in different and potentially contradictory assumptions about the technology's value.One such technology where evaluations conflict is Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT). Cost-effectiveness evaluations of NIPT often assess NIPT's ability to deliver on goals (i.e preventing the birth of children with disabilities) that social and ethical analyses suggest it should not have. Thus, cost effectiveness analyses frequently contradict social and ethical assessments of NIPT's value.We use the case of NIPT to explore how economic evaluations using a capabilities approach may be able to capture a broader, more ethical view of the value of NIPT. The capabilities approach is an evaluative framework which bases wellbeing assessments on a person's abilities, rather than their expressed preferences. It is linked to extra-welfarist approaches in health economic assessment. Beginning with Nussbaum's capability framework, we conducted a directed qualitative content analysis of interview data collected in 2014 from 27 Canadian women with personal experience of NIPT. We found that eight of Nussbaum's ten capabilities related to options, states, or choices that women valued in the context of NIPT, and identified one new capability. Our findings suggest that women value NIPT for its ability to provide more and different choices in the prenatal care pathway, and that a capabilities approach can indeed capture the value of NIPT in a way that goes beyond measuring health outcomes of ambiguous social and ethical value. More broadly, the capabilities approach may serve to resolve contradictions between ethical and economic evaluations of health technologies, and contribute to extra-welfarist approaches in the assessment of morally complex health technologies.

Front-line therapy of advanced ovarian cancer: new approaches

BackgroundThe 5-year survival of ovarian cancer has slowly increased but to date much of this has been due to the use of more lines of treatment rather than better first-line therapy. In this setting, there has been little improvement over the past 15 years. The introduction of new treatments to extend time to first progression and overall survival remains a key objective of clinical research. DesignThe focus of research in the previous decade has been on the incorporation of anti-angiogenic therapy or dose-dense scheduling of paclitaxel (Taxol) to improve outcome. The new trials being conducted build on the knowledge gained and are focussing on two new areas of research, the use of PARP (poly-ADP ribose polymerase) inhibitors and immunotherapy. ResultsOngoing randomised trials using PARP inhibitors or immune checkpoint inhibits are reviewed and the potential benefits and challenges of using these agents are discussed. ConclusionsImprovements in outcome from some of the many open trials may present challenges; interpretation of the outcome data needs to be taken in the context of clinical benefit and a health-economic assessment. The latter is becoming ever-more important as the cost of trials with combinations of targeted therapy is very great.

Varicella-related Primary Health-care Visits, Hospitalizations and Mortality in Norway, 2008-2014.

Norway does not currently implement universal varicella vaccination in childhood. We aimed to characterize health care burden of varicella in Norway in the prevaccine era. We linked individual patient data from different national registries to examine varicella vaccinations and varicella-coded primary care consultations, hospitalizations, outpatient hospital visits, deaths and viral infections of central nervous system in the whole population of Norway during 2008-2014. We estimated health care contact rates and described the epidemiology of medically attended varicella infection. Each year approximately 14,600 varicella-related contacts occurred within primary health care and hospital sector in Norway. The annual contact rate was 221 cases per 100,000 population in primary health care and 7.3 cases per 100,000 in hospital care. Both in primary and hospital care, the highest incidences were observed among children 1 year of age: 2,654 and 78.1 cases per 100,000, respectively. The annual varicella mortality was estimated at 0.06 deaths per 100,000 and in-hospital case-fatality rate at 0.3%. Very few (0.2-0.5%) patients were vaccinated against varicella. Among hospitalized varicella patients, 22% had predisposing conditions, 9% had severe-to-very severe comorbidities and 5.5% were immunocompromised. Varicella-related complications were reported in 29.3% of hospitalized patients. Varicella zoster virus was the third most frequent virus found among 16% of patients with confirmed viral infections of central nervous system. Varicella causes a considerable health care burden in Norway, especially among children. To inform the policy decision on the use of varicella vaccination, a health economic assessment of vaccination and mathematical modeling of vaccination impact are needed.

Disease-Modifying Therapies for Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Literature Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. MS is considered incurable; however, disease treatment has advanced significantly over the past several decades with the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The current study reviewed the cost-effectiveness analyses of DMTs in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients. A systematic literature search of bibliographic databases was conducted to identify economic evaluations published after 2007. The relevant population, intervention, comparators, outcomes, and study design (PICOS) were considered. The outcomes of interest were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), net monetary benefits, incremental benefits, and incremental costs. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement was used to assess the reporting quality of published studies. A total of 1370 potentially relevant citations were identified, of which 33 published articles and four Health Technology Assessment (HTA) reports prepared for the UK were included in the final analysis. Almost all studies were based on a health economic model and considered RRMS as the phase of disease at study entry. The studies were conducted in 10 different countries, with approximately 50% based in the US. Study outcomes were rarely comparable due to the different settings, input data, and assumptions. Even within the same country, the discrepancy between study criteria was considerable. The compliance with reporting standards of the CHEERS statement was generally high. Internationally, a large number of health economic assessments of DMTs in RRMS were available, yielding difficult to compare, and at times conflicting, results.

Distance, Duration, and Velocity in Cycle Commuting: Analyses of Relations and Determinants of Velocity.

Background: The distance, duration, and velocity of cycling for transport purposes are used in health economic assessments, epidemiological studies, traffic modelling, and planning. It is therefore of value to determine relevant levels for them, and analyze how they relate, as well as to what extent other relevant variables may affect cycling velocities. 1661 cycle commuters (34% males) in Greater Stockholm, Sweden have been studied for that purpose. Methods: The participants were recruited with advertisements. They received questionnaires and individually adjusted maps to draw their normal cycling route. Route distances were measured by a criterion method. Age, sex, weight, height, and cycling durations to work were self-reported. The commuting routes were positioned in relation to inner urban and/or suburban–rural areas. Linear multiple regression analyses were used. Results: Cycling speeds were positively related to commuting distances or durations, being male, of younger age, having higher body weight but lower body mass index (BMI), and using the last digits 1–4 or 6–9 in duration reports (as compared to 0 and 5), as well as cycling in suburban (versus inner urban) areas. Conclusions: The study provides new knowledge about how distance and duration, as well as other factors, relate to the velocity of commuter cycling. It thereby enables the use of more appropriate input values in, for instance, health economic assessments and epidemiological health studies.

Tocilizumab after A First-Line with Anti-Tnf in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Cost-Consequence Analysis in the Italian Setting

OBJECTIVES Switching to a different mechanism of action in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients after a first anti-TNF-α has proved to be effective. The objective of this study was a health economic assessment in Italy. METHODS The study was conducted using a pharmacoeconomic model with a 3-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured as days gained in low disease activity (LDA; DAS28-ESR <3.2) or in remission (DAS28-ESR <2.6). The model simulated the response to treatments, based on the Rotation Or Change (ROC) trial, the probability of discontinuation and switch to a 3rd-line biologic, and the transition to death. Time on treatment curves for 2nd-line biologics were derived from published Italian real-word data. Costs were estimated based on published sources and Italian prices and tariffs. RESULTS The switch to tocilizumab after the failure of a first anti-TNF-α was more effective than a second anti-TNF-α, in terms of days in remission (224 vs. 114 days) and of days in LDA (345 vs. 193 days). The cost-consequence ratio with tocilizumab iv was 174 euros/day in remission and 113 euros/day in LDA. With tocilizumab sc the ratio was 181 euros/day in remission and 117 euros/day in LDA. The same ratios for the anti-TNF-α treatments ranged from 233 to Euro 320 euros per day in remission and from 138 to 190 euros per day in LDA. CONCLUSIONS The switch to a different mechanism of action, namely tocilizumab, after the failure of a first anti-TNF-α agent seems a rational strategy for RA patients in the Italian setting.

PHP59 - Health Economics And Outcomes Research Needs Assessment For Latin America: Relationship Between Perceived And Expected Quality Of Knowledge In A Self-Assessment Survey

PHP59 - Health Economics And Outcomes Research Needs Assessment For Latin America: Relationship Between Perceived And Expected Quality Of Knowledge In A Self-Assessment Survey

A Literature Review of Health Economic Assessments, Health Care Resource Utilization (HCRU), and Health Related Quality-of-Life (HRQOL) in Patients with Gastric Cancer (GC)

A Literature Review of Health Economic Assessments, Health Care Resource Utilization (HCRU), and Health Related Quality-of-Life (HRQOL) in Patients with Gastric Cancer (GC)

A randomised controlled study of the effectiveness of breathing retraining exercises taught by a physiotherapist either by instructional DVD or in face-to-face sessions in the management of asthma in adults.

Asthma control is suboptimal, resulting in quality of life (QoL) impairment and costs. Breathing retraining exercises have evidence of effectiveness as adjuvant treatment, but are infrequently used. To transfer the contents of a brief (three-session) physiotherapist-delivered breathing retraining programme to a digital versatile disc (DVD) and booklet format; to compare the effectiveness of the self-guided intervention with that of 'face-to-face' physiotherapy and usual care for QoL and other asthma-related outcomes; to perform a health economic assessment of both interventions; and to perform a process evaluation using quantitative and qualitative methods. Parallel-group three-arm randomised controlled trial. General practice surgeries in the UK. In total, 655 adults currently receiving asthma treatment with impaired asthma-related QoL were randomly allocated to the DVD (n = 261), physiotherapist (n = 132) and control (usual care) (n = 262) arms in a 2 : 1 : 2 ratio. It was not possible to blind participants but data collection and analysis were performed blinded. Physiotherapy-based breathing retraining delivered through three 'face-to-face' respiratory physiotherapist sessions or a self-guided programme (DVD plus our theory-based behaviour change booklet) developed by the research team, with a control of usual care. The primary outcome measure was asthma-specific QoL, measured using the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (AQLQ). Secondary outcomes included asthma symptom control [Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ)], psychological state [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS)], hyperventilation symptoms (Nijmegen questionnaire), generic QoL [EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D)], assessments of airway physiology (spirometry) and inflammation (exhaled nitric oxide) and health resource use and costs. Assessments were carried out at baseline and at 3, 6 and 12 months post randomisation. Patient engagement and experience were also assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods. Primary efficacy analysis was between-group comparison of changes in AQLQ scores from baseline to 12 months in the intention-to-treat population with adjustments for prespecified covariates. Significant improvements occurred in the DVD group compared with the control group [adjusted mean difference 0.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 0.44; p < 0.001] and in the face-to-face physiotherapy group compared with the control group (adjusted mean difference 0.24, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.44; p < 0.05), with equivalence between the DVD and the face-to-face physiotherapy groups (adjusted mean difference 0.04, 95% CI -0.16 to 0.24). In all sensitivity analyses, both interventions remained significantly superior to the control and equivalence between the interventions was maintained. In other questionnaire outcome measures and in the physiological measures assessed, there were no significant between-group differences. Process evaluations showed that participants engaged well with both of the active interventions, but that some participants in the DVD arm would have liked to receive tuition from a professional. Asthma health-care costs were lower in both intervention arms than in the control group, indicating 'dominance' for both of the interventions compared with the control, with lowest costs in the DVD arm. The rate of adverse events was lower in the DVD and face-to-face physiotherapy groups than in the control group. Only 10% of the potentially eligible population responded to the study invitation. However, breathing retraining exercises improved QoL and reduced health-care costs in adults with asthma whose condition remains uncontrolled despite standard pharmacological therapy, were engaged with well by patients and can be delivered effectively as a self-guided intervention. The intervention should now be transferred to an internet-based platform and implementation studies performed. Interventions for younger patients should be developed and trialled. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88318003. This project was primarily funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 53. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Additional financial support was received from Comprehensive Local Research Networks.

Measurement and health economic evaluation of informal care

Informal care is non-financed care outside the realm of formal healthcare, which represents an increasing challenge for aging societies. Informal care has frequently been neglected in health economic analyses, while in recent years its coverage has increased considerably in the international scientific literature. This review summarizes the methodology of the health-economic assessment of informal care, including the objective and subjective metrics of caregiver burden, its financial and non-financial valuation and practical applications, with special emphasis on the introduction of care-related quality of life instruments (e.g. Care Related Quality of Life - CarerQoL instrument). Care-related quality of life is a different entity from health-related quality of life, the two cannot be combined, so their joint evaluation requires multi-criteria decision analysis methods. Therefore, it is important to determine the societal preferences of care-related quality of life versus health-related quality of life, and map the relationship of care-related quality of life with time. The local validation of tools measuring care-related quality of life, its more widespread practical application and the analysis of its effect on decision making are also important part of the future research agenda. Orv Hetil. 2017; 158(35): 1363-1372.

Disordered Gambling Prevalence: Methodological Innovations in a General Danish Population Survey.

We study Danish adult gambling behavior with an emphasis on discovering patterns relevant to public health forecasting and economic welfare assessment of policy. Methodological innovations include measurement of formative in addition to reflective constructs, estimation of prospective risk for developing gambling disorder rather than risk of being falsely negatively diagnosed, analysis with attention to sample weights and correction for sample selection bias, estimation of the impact of trigger questions on prevalence estimates and sample characteristics, and distinguishing between total and marginal effects of risk-indicating factors. The most significant novelty in our design is that nobody was excluded on the basis of their response to a 'trigger' or 'gateway' question about previous gambling history. Our sample consists of 8405 adult Danes. We administered the Focal Adult Gambling Screen to all subjects and estimate prospective risk for disordered gambling. We find that 87.6% of the population is indicated for no detectable risk, 5.4% is indicated for early risk, 1.7% is indicated for intermediate risk, 2.6% is indicated for advanced risk, and 2.6% is indicated for disordered gambling. Correcting for sample weights and controlling for sample selection has a significant effect on prevalence rates. Although these estimates of the 'at risk' fraction of the population are significantly higher than conventionally reported, we infer a significant decrease in overall prevalence rates of detectable risk with these corrections, since gambling behavior is positively correlated with the decision to participate in gambling surveys. We also find that imposing a threshold gambling history leads to underestimation of the prevalence of gambling problems.

Socioeconomic and demographic differences in walking and cycling in the Netherlands: How do these translate into differences in health benefits?

Walking and cycling are effective means to increase people's daily physical activity. Since little is known about how differences in walking and cycling translate into inequalities in health benefits on the population level, this study quantified these health benefits for demographic and socioeconomic groups in the Netherlands. Population-representative data on walking and cycling among adults (aged 20–90 years) for the period 2010–2014 were analyzed with the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT). Results showed pronounced differences between subgroups, with women, senior citizens (50–79 years), higher socioeconomic groups, and native-Dutch people walking and cycling more than others. Given the relatively high mortality rates and high levels of walking and cycling among senior citizens, it was found that a large number of deaths were prevented in that age group. In lower socioeconomic groups, despite their lower walking and cycling levels, it was found that even more deaths were prevented, given their large population size and higher mortality rates. The proportion of health benefits was found to be greater among the native Dutch because their walking and cycling levels as well as their population size were higher than among non-native groups. The study suggests that policies to increase walking and cycling among lower socioeconomic groups could induce further health benefits in the aggregate and thus help mitigate socioeconomic health inequalities.

Developing a Cycling Crash Risk Module for the Health Economic Assessment Tool

Active travel, namely cycling and walking, leads to health benefits that can be quantified and monetized based on epidemiological and economic evidence. In order to support decision-makers, practitioners and researchers in carrying out such calculations the World Health Organisation created the Health and Economic Assessment Tools for walking and cycling (HEAT) in 2007. HEAT aims to provide scientifically robust results at low complexity for users. The current version of HEAT considers effects of physical activity and (soon) air pollution, but not crash risk, one of the three main health impact pathways for active travel. This study develops a crash risk module for cycling to be integrated in HEAT. Based on reviews of previous health impact studies, the HEAT crash module will apply a basic approach, which assesses crash risk as a function of (1) a default background national or municipal crash rate comprising a measure of traffic casualties as numerator (e.g. number of fatalities, injuries or crashes among cyclists) and a measure of exposure as denominator (e.g. distance or time cycled) as well as (2) the observed exposure in the case study. A systematic data review was carried out to identify available data on crash rates. Starting from international databases that include national and municipal data, the search will be expanded by reviewing national and municipal reports on safety and, separately, travel surveys to obtain exposure estimates. For before and after assessments of changes over time a non-linear “safety-in-numbers/numbers-in-safety” adjustment will be applied. Existing international databases containing crash rates mainly use population as measure of exposure, which is inadequate for health impact modeling. Cycled distance or time requires consultation of national and municipal sources. We anticipate obtaining such data from a majority of large western European countries, the United States, as well as selected major cities. The presented crash risk module will complement the scope of HEAT without compromising its simplicity. The module is initially limited to certain countries and municipalities and not suitable for use-cases at a smaller scale, i.e. project assessments. It may be further developed as follow: (1) The module could be used other countries and municipalities by adding a modifier of the crash rate that takes into account local particularities defined by the tool user. (2) The module could be used to evaluate specific cycling projects by including adjustment options for effects of local determinants of cycling safety.