Hazardous Phenomena Research Articles

Contribution to the assessment of effect distances of atmospheric dispersion: case study

Storage tanks are vital to the oil industry, functioning as essential components in the operation of oil fields. However, their strategic importance is accompanied by significant environmental risks, particularly due to atmospheric dispersion events. These events, characterized by the release and spread of pollutants such as aerosols, gases, and dust into the atmosphere, can stem from both human activities and accidental releases. The consequences are often severe, leading to considerable human, material, and ecological damage. Atmospheric dispersion of pollutants has emerged as a major environmental concern, especially within industries where storage tanks are integral to operations. This concern is magnified by increasingly stringent regulatory frameworks. Industries, particularly those operating within classified facilities subject to environmental protection laws, are now mandated to thoroughly identify, analyze, and assess potential accidental risks associated with their operations. These regulations are designed to mitigate the adverse impacts of such incidents, and this forms the object of this study. In this study, we concentrated on the T-403A/B/C storage spheres at the ALRAR gas complex. Utilizing dynamic consequence modelling with ALOHA software, it was possible to conduct a comprehensive assessment of potential pollutant releases in the processing area. This approach allowed to meticulously map out the hazardous phenomena linked to these scenarios and to develop targeted preventive and protective measures. The findings from this study highlight the critical need for rigorous risk assessments and the implementation of proactive safety strategies. By doing so, the environmental and operational risks associated with storage tanks in the oil industry can be significantly reduced. This research underscores the imperative of integrating advanced modelling techniques and stringent safety protocols to safeguard both the environment and industry operations.

СОВРЕМЕННОЕ СОСТОЯНИЕ СИСТЕМЫ ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ

The article considers the key aspects of optimization of the composition and placement of the hydrological network of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of ensuring sustainable monitoring of water resources. The main attention is paid to the preservation of reference (long-row) observation points necessary for territorial generalizations, development of methods for hydrological calculations and forecasts, as well as assessment of long-term changes in the hydrological regime in the context of climate change. The scientific study emphasizes the importance of increasing the number of information posts to improve the reliability of hydrological forecasts and warnings of hazardous phenomena, equipping the hydrological network with modern equipment in strategically important areas, and restoring specialized observation points for experimental research. The implementation of the proposed measures will meet the current and future needs of the economy for hydrological information, as well as improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrological calculations and forecasts.

HUBUNGAN POTENSI BAHAYA KERJA PERAWAT DENGAN UPAYA PENCEGAHAN BERBASIS HAZARD IDENTIFICATION RISK ASSESSMENT DETERMINING CONTROL

The quality of health services needs to be maintained and improved, while the number of work accidents still has the potential to occur through the phenomenon of potential work hazards for nurses and low prevention efforts. Information found potential work hazards for nurses include physical, biological, ergonomic, chemical and psychosocial hazards as well as the low prevention efforts of nurses in the Dialysis Room. This study aims to determine the relationship between the potential work hazards of nurses and prevention efforts based on hazard identification risk assessment determining control (HIRADC) in the Dialysis Room at Jasa Kartini Hospital, Tasikmalaya (RSJKT). This research method is a quantitative research type descriptive correlation cross sectional approach. The number of samples was 30 nurses in the Dialysis Room at Jasa Kartini Tasikmalaya Hospital with the sampling technique using total sampling. The instrument used was a valid and reliable questionnaire including a questionnaire on the potential hazards of work for nurses (Cronbach Alpha value 0.953) and HIRADC-based prevention efforts (Cronbach Alpha value 0.952). Data analysis used the Chi-Square test. The results showed that most of the potential work hazards for nurses were in the unsafe category (63.3%). Most of the HIRADC-based prevention efforts are in the low category of 56.7%. There is a significant relationship (p-value = 0.000) between potential work hazards for nurses and HIRADC-based prevention efforts. The results of this study are expected that hospitals hold workshops and training on HIRADC-based prevention efforts regularly at least once a year, nurses improve the patient safety culture implementation program in an effort to minimize potential occupational hazards and further research can explore potential work hazards for nurses and HIRADC-based prevention efforts with the method qualitative research and identify other factors related to HIRADC-based prevention efforts.

Evolution of a large-scale phreatoplinian eruption: Constraints from the 40 ka caldera-forming eruption of Kutcharo volcano, eastern Hokkaido, Japan

“Phreatoplinian” is an explosive phreatomagmatic eruption style that is defined by the fragmentation of magma and widespread dispersal of the resulting fine ash and accretionary lapilli. These eruptions pose significant future risks at caldera volcanoes that host lakes and abundant groundwater. There have been no direct observations of a phreatoplinian eruption, therefore, constraining the detailed mechanisms and sequences of such events relies on studying the deposits of previous eruptions. In order to advance our understanding of these hazardous phenomena we conducted a case study of the 40 ka caldera-forming eruption (Kp I) from Kutcharo volcano in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. We subdivided Kp I eruption deposits into 7 units (Units 1 to 7 in ascending order). Units 1 to 6 are air fall deposits consisting of alternating thin pumice and thick silty ash layers with abundant spherical accretionary lapilli. Stratigraphically higher ash fall units are thicker, finer in grain-size, and more widely distributed. The maximum eruption column height and mass-discharge rate were calculated to be 40 km and 1.4 × 109 kg/s, respectively. Unit 7 is a climactic ignimbrite (76 km3), which is distributed widely over the area north of Kutcharo caldera.Unit 6 is the largest air fall unit and can be considered to have been deposited by a phreatoplinian eruption, given its abundant accretionary lapilli, wide dispersion, and high degree of fragmentation. Unit 6 had the highest mass discharge rate (1.4 × 109 kg/s), suggesting the interaction between magma and external water was most intense, and it is thought that a large eruption column covered eastern Hokkaido. In addition, Kp I eruption deposits commonly contain glass shards derived from fragmentation via both magma degassing and Molten Fuel Coolant Interaction (MFCI). To account for this observation, we infer that the conduit penetrated a large aquifer, and the margin of the ascending magma came into contact with this external water source. Due to repeated caldera-forming eruptions, intra-caldera filled deposits (hosting a large aquifer) likely played a key role in supplying external caldera lake water to a level near the fragmentation depth of H2O-saturated felsic magma. The occurrence of these intra-caldera conduit and caldera-lake systems may provide the required conditions for phreatoplinian eruptions at continental arc caldera volcanoes in Japan and globally.

The dynamics of frost formation on road surfaces: an experimental analysis

This study delves into the complexities of frost formation on road surfaces, a phenomenon that presents significant safety hazards in transportation due to its sudden emergence and unpredictable nature. Despite advanced meteorological warning systems for snowfall and freezing rain, black ice and frost remain difficult to predict and counteract. To address this, a controlled indoor simulation experiment was designed to investigate the characteristics of road surface frosting at low temperatures.Results from the experiment indicated that growth of the frost layer thickness follows a parabolic trend with extended freezing time yet the mass of the frost layer increases at a roughly linear rate. The data also revealed that lower temperatures expedite the phase transition of water vapor to ice, leading to faster increases in frost layer height. Additionally, the effects of air temperature and velocity on frost properties were examined. Interestingly, higher air temperatures facilitated rapid frost formation initially, but later stages displayed a plateau phase in the rate of accumulation. Furthermore, increased air velocity up to 1 m/s resulted in greater frost mass, but higher velocities diminished frost formation due to enhanced heat transfer.In conclusion, this study offers a detailed analysis of frost layer development under controlled conditions, providing valuable insights into the environmental factors influencing this hazardous phenomenon. The findings contribute to the understanding of frost dynamics on road surfaces, with implications for improving predictive models and developing effective countermeasures for road safety during icy conditions.

ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ ИСКУССТВЕННОГО ИНТЕЛЛЕКТА ДЛЯ ПОДДЕРЖКИ РЕШЕНИЙ РУКОВОДИТЕЛЕЙ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ С ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕМ ГИДРОМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ИНФОРМАЦИИ

The article proposes ideas for applying artificial intelligence technologies in decision support tasks using hydrometeorological information. The possibilities of using artificial intelligence technologies - chatbots, knowledge bases, decision support - are considered. Chatbots are necessary for searching data on large sites and portals such as http://esimo.ru using a wide range of metadata objects and classifiers - geographical areas, observation points, types of information (actual, forecast, climatic). Knowledge bases are used to identify hazardous phenomena of different levels of danger based on local threshold values for each enterprise, as well as to provide enterprise managers with information on the possible impacts of hazardous phenomena on the activities of enterprises and the population, recommendations for decision-making.

Topographic Controls on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard at Aluto Volcano (Ethiopia) Identified Using a Novel Zero‐Censored Gaussian Process Emulator

AbstractAluto volcano (Central Ethiopia) displays a complex, hybrid topography, combining elements typical of caldera systems (e.g., a central, flat caldera floor) and stratovolcanoes (e.g., relatively high and steep, radial flanks, related to eruptions occurring clustered in space). The most recent known eruptions at Aluto have commonly generated column‐collapse pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), a hazardous phenomenon that can pose a significant risk to inhabited areas on and around the volcano. In order to analyze and quantify the role that Aluto's complex topography has on PDC hazard, we apply a versatile probabilistic strategy, which merges the TITAN2D model for PDCs with a novel zero‐censored Gaussian Process (zGP) emulator, enabling robust uncertainty quantification at tractable computational costs. Results from our analyses indicate a critical role of the eruptive vent location, but also highlight a complex interplay between the topography and PDC volume and mobility. The relative importance of each factor reciprocally depends on the other factors. Thus, large PDCs (≥0.1–0.5 km3) can diminish the influence of topography over proximal regions of flow propagation, but PDCs respond to large‐ and small‐scale topographic features over medial to distal areas, and the zGP captures processes like PDC channelization and overbanking. The novel zGP can be applied to other PDC models and can enable specific investigations of PDC dynamics, topographic interactions, and PDC hazard at many volcanic systems worldwide. Potentially, it could also be used during volcanic crises, when time constraints usually only permit computation of scenario‐based hazard assessments.

Regional features of glaze ice events frequency in the north of the European territory of Russia in the current changing climate

Recently, the interest in society in observing and forecasting dangerous meteorological phenomena in the cold period of the year has noticeably grown. In this work, we study the phenomenon of glaze ice in the north of the European territory of Russia in the North-Western Federal District. Here glaze ice (icing) is less frequent than other forms of ice accretion, but its characteristics most often exceed the criteria of dangerous meteorological phenomena. It is a great danger for various areas of the economy, ship navigation, causing an increase in traumatism of the population and damage to infrastructure. In accordance with the aim of the work, the spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of glaze ice accretion on the territory of the North-Western Federal District in the period 1986–2022 is investigated. The results are obtained on the basis of instrumental observations of meteorological stations. Using statistical analysis, the features of mean yearly frequency at each meteorological station were studied. To assess the direction of annual changes in the glaze ice frequency, the linear trend coefficient was calculated for each meteorological station. The least squares method was used for this purpose. It is shown that the maximum number of days with glaze ice occurs in the central part of the North-Western Federal District. This can be attributed to the more frequent movement of Atlantic and southern cyclones to high latitudes and their precipitation, especially at the atmospheric fronts and in the warm sectors of the cyclones, at air temperatures near zero and below. What makes the spatial distribution of glaze ice frequency even more uneven is the presence of uplands in the European territory of Russia. More precipitation falls on their windward slopes, and the temperature decreases with altitude. The findings show that in recent decades there has been an increase in the frequency of the glaze ice phenomenon in the region. At the same time, the interannual variability remains relatively constant. Taking into account the positive trend in the number of glaze ice events and increasing air temperature and precipitation, it is necessary to develop measures to deal with this hazardous phenomenon and minimize damage from it.

A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings

Abstract. Central Asia is highly exposed to a broad range of hazardous phenomena including earthquakes, floods and landslides, which have cause substantial damage in the past. However, disaster risk reduction strategies are still under development in the area. We provide a regional-scale exposure database for population and residential buildings based on existing information from previous exposure development efforts at the regional and national scale. Such datasets are complemented with country-based data (e.g., building census, national statistics) collected by national representatives in each Central Asian country (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan). We also develop population and residential-building exposure layers for the year 2080, which support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies in the region.

The response of global terrestrial water storage to drought based on multiple climate scenarios

Drought is a hydrological hazard phenomenon that spreads across the world and will become more intense and frequent with climate change in the future. How to scientifically and effectively monitor and evaluate drought events has become a significant issue. At present, various types of drought monitoring indices have been proposed. However, the criteria for drought that occurs in each month is different and the interaction between drought and the environmental factors of earth is also difficult to understand. To solve this problem, evapotranspiration (ET), leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture (SM), precipitation (P) and surface temperature(ST) data from five different scenarios (Hist-1950, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) of coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase6 (CMIP6) were obtained to construct a standardized integrated drought index (SIDI) which was used to monitor drought at global level. Then the cumulative effects of drought on terrestrial water storage in different scenarios were explored. The results showed that the global land surface was a trend of wetting from 1950 to 2014, while the trend of dryness-wetness was different under four future scenarios. Besides, the global drought frequency will first increase and then decrease in the future, and drought frequency in three periods was ranked as follows: Historical period (6.03 months) < Pre-Century (6.15 months) > Post-Century (6.11 months). Moreover, it was found that the cumulative effects of drought on terrestrial water storage diminished gradually from 6.7 months during the historical period (1950–2014) to 5.36 months in the Pre-Century (2015–2057), and further reduced to 4.87 months in the Post-Century (2058–2100), indicating a continuous decline in the stability of global terrestrial water storage in response to drought. This study has a certain reference value for the comprehensive assessment and rational allocation of global terrestrial water storage

Flash flood prediction in Southwest Saudi Arabia using GIS technique and surface water models

A flash flood is one of the hazardous phenomena, especially in dry regions. In Saudi Arabia, Jazan Province experiences data scarcity especially historical hydrological data and a lack of studies related to flash flood analysis and the rainfall and runoff interrelationship. Thus, this research aims to study the rainfall-runoff inter-relation, predict flash floods, and to map the risk areas in Jazan Province by the geological, geomorphological, and hydrogeological characteristics along with digital elevation model (DEM), watershed modeling system (WMS) and HEC-HMS models. Jazan Province encompasses 25 drainage basins, receiving a considerable amount of rainfall (ranging from 100 to 500 mm) (August, October-November, March) which intermittently cause strong and destructive flash floods. The DEM was used for delineating the catchment (drainage basins) parameters. Physiographic parameters of the catchments have been analyzed for mapping the hazard degree of the flash flood strength. Further, basins with high hazard degrees of flash floods were selected to assess rainfall-runoff inter-relation using the HEC-HMS models, GIS, and morphometric parameters. Forty %, 8%, 52% of the study area are high, medium, and low hazard degrees of flash floods, respectively. The groundwater recharge in the study area was calculated through the integration of satellite image analysis, SWAT and GIS techniques and it ranges from 0.002 mm/km2/year to 8 mm/km2/year with an average of 2.5 mm/km2/year. Rainfall-runoff inter-relation of study basins, assessed based on the integration of WMS and HEC-HMS models, indicates that the resulting runoff volume ranges from 18.5 × 106 m3 to 473.1 × 106 m3 at a recurrence period of 5 and 100 years at rainfall events of 65 mm and 116.8 mm, respectively.

Generalized Weighted Mahalanobis Distance Improved VIKOR Model for Rockburst Classification Evaluation

Rockbursts are hazardous phenomena of sudden and violent rock failure in deep underground excavations under high geostress conditions, which poses a serious threat to geotechnical engineering. The occurrence of rockbursts is influenced by a combination of factors. Therefore, it is necessary to find an efficient method to assess rockburst grades. In this paper, we propose a novel method that enhances the VIKOR method using a novel combination of weight and generalized weighted Mahalanobis distance. The combination weights of the evaluation indicators were calculated using game theory by combining subjective experience and objective data statistical characteristics. By introducing the generalized weighted Mahalanobis distance, the VIKOR method is improved to address the issues of inconsistent dimensions, different importance, and inconsistent correlation among indicators. The proposed method can deal with the complexity of the impact factors of rockburst evaluation and classify the rockburst intensity level. The results show that the accuracy of the improved VIKOR method with the distance formula is higher than that of the unimproved VIKOR method; the evaluation accuracy of the improved VIKOR method with the generalized weighted Mahalanobis distance is 91.67%, which outperforms the improved VIKOR methods with the Euclidean and Canberra distances. This assessment method can be easily implemented and does not depend on the discussion of the rockburst occurrence mechanism, making it widely applicable for engineering rockburst evaluation.

Fire-induced Structural Failure Analysis of an Industrial Warehouse Roof Truss System

Fires are complex and hazardous phenomena governed by the laws of thermodynamics and fluid dynamics. Contrary to common belief, they are not rare occurrences, with approximately 130 buildings in Italy alone experiencing fires daily. The structural behavior under such extreme conditions is difficult to model as material mechanical properties are significantly influenced by temperatures, and thermal deformations alter structural responses.This paper focuses on investigating the fire scenario and the failure of a reinforced concrete industrial warehouse through dynamic fire simulations and nonlinear thermo-mechanical analyses. The warehouse roof is constructed with truss arches featuring three- hinged joints with a steel chain. The arches are regularly spaced at 5.0 m intervals, with a clear span of 19.40 m and a measured height of 8.40 m at the peak and 5.0 m at the supports. The study is composed of two fundamental phases: simulation of fire conditions using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and investigation of the structural elements collapse through finite element structural analysis.This analysis reveals that, due to thermal stresses, the chain in the roof truss can no longer perform its intended role within the arch, resulting in displacement at the ends and subsequent column collapse. Being a structure designed over 50 years ago, it lacks structural redundancy or robustness.

Study of vulnerable zones to soil instability by radar remote sensing, case of the Temsamane region in north Morocco

The Temsamane massif is part of the external Rif of Morocco and is distinguished by more intense deformations, linked to its topographical, lithological and structural characteristics. Many natural hazard phenomena, and therefore damage and loss of resources and people, are present. The detailed work on these activities remains much localized using traditional techniques. The analysis using differential interferometry techniques of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (DINSAR) made it possible to determine the instability and vulnerability to subsidence risks from two images from the Sentinel satellite of two different years (2018 and 2022). The results obtained show the presence of some areas of subsidence in the urban sector, the continuation of shrinkage and slight uplift in the relief areas, and generally instability in rural areas.

КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЕ ОСОБЕННОСТИ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ ВОЗДУХА НА ЮГЕ КАЗАХСТАНА В ВЕСЕННЕ-ЛЕТНЕЕ ПОЛУГОДИЕ

Scientific results of a study of temperature changes in the southern region of the Republic of Kazakhstan are presented based on long-term climate data for 1990-2020. by 11 meteorological stations: Almaty, Aidarly, Zharkent, Lepsy, Matai, Kazalinsk, Kyzylorda, Tasty, Taraz, Turkestan, Shymkent. The main goal of the work is to identify the conditions for the formation of large anomalies of average monthly temperature in the spring in the southern region against the background of ongoing climate changes and determine the trend of its change. The relevance of the work lies in the fact that air temperature is one of the indicators of climate change. Large air temperature anomalies in the warm half of the year can lead to catastrophic droughts, which will have a detrimental effect on agricultural yields. For the study area, a systematic statistical analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature anomalies was carried out. Extreme temperature months will be considered. Circulation conditions for the formation of spring-summer months extreme in temperature. The results obtained can be used in developing methods for predicting extreme hazardous phenomena.

GIS-based landslide and rockfall susceptibility zoning in Chepelarska River Basin (Western Rhodope Mountains, Bulgaria)

Landslides and rockfalls are one of the most widespread hazardous phenomena in the Western Rhodopes, Bulgaria. These mass-wasting types occur together with other dangerous phenomena such as river bank erosion and soil degradation, and can cause a lot of infrastructural damage. The main purpose of this paper is to perform GIS-based landslide and rockfall susceptibility zoning and to elaborate susceptibility maps at a scale of а river basin on the example of the Chepelarska River Basin (RB). In order to achieve this goal, nine causal factors have been selected, and map of landslides and field study have been used. These factors were reclassified using histograms and the natural breaks method. In addition, the frequency ratio values of each class have been calculated. To obtain the causal factors impact on sliding and rockfalls, the weights and weighted averages sum of their classes were calculated and analysed. For the complex analysis and elaboration of mass-wasting susceptibility maps, weighted overlay and weighted sum methods have been applied. The obtained results show that from the total 38 landslides and rockfalls in the study area, 26 of them fall into the very high susceptibility zone applying a weighted overlay, and 25 of them fall into the same zone using the weighted sum method. These results and the used methods could be used for other small and medium-sized river basins.

Lessons learned from Jupiter 1000, an industrial demonstrator of Power-to-Gas

Jupiter 1000 is an industrial demonstrator of Power-to-Gas, commissioned in late 2019 and located in the south of France. The site produces hydrogen through water electrolysis, using both an alkaline electrolyzer and a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, with a total power of 1 MW. This short communication presents feedback, test results, and studies conducted within the scope of this project. These first lessons learned focus on performance (energy efficiency, flexibility, and startup time), reliability and durability (management of degradation and failures), and safety (management of hazardous phenomena) of the Power-to-Hydrogen process.

Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice

The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.

Effects of the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption on groundwater resources (part II): Hydrochemical impacts

Volcanic eruptions can have significant implications for the management and sustainability of water resources in volcanic islands. The recent 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano in La Palma Island (Canary Islands, Spain) raised concerns regarding its potential impact on groundwater resources. This study is the second part of a series investigating the hydrogeochemical impacts of the eruption. The study involved conducting three groundwater sampling campaigns during the eruption and two after the eruption, six months and one year after the eruption ceased. A total of 15 monitored points, including piezometers, wells, water galleries, and main gully collector of the island, all relatively close (2–15 km) to the erupted volcano, were sampled for the analysis of major, minor, and trace elements, physiochemical parameters, which were measured on-site. Statistical analyses were performed to assess the differences in groundwater composition before, during, and after the eruption. To evaluate the differences in water quality compared to pre-eruption events, 33 additional historical groundwater samples provided by the local Water Authority were assessed, and 103 groundwater analysis results from the groundwater data base of the Spanish National Geological Survey (IGME) were considered. The results of the study showed low but statistically significant changes in pH, T, conductivity and groundwater composition, mainly related to the high increases in several trace element concentrations, such as Al, Cr, Fe, Mo, Ni, Sr, Th, Tl, V, Zn, Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Pb and U, with increments in various orders of magnitude for several elements. This increase was found to be highly influenced by the sample distance to the volcano during the eruption stage. The significance of these findings lies in their usefulness to enhance our understanding of the effects of volcanic eruptions on groundwater quality resources and demonstrate their resilience to this hazardous phenomenon, which ultimately underscores their reliability.

Seismic and thermal precursors of crater collapses and overflows at Stromboli volcano

Lava overflows are highly hazardous phenomena that can occur at Stromboli. They can destabilize the crater area and the “Sciara del Fuoco” unstable slope, formed by several sector collapses, which can generate potentially tsunamigenic landslides. In this study, we have identified precursors of the October-November 2022 effusive crisis through seismic and thermal camera measurements. We analyzed the lava overflow on October 9, which was preceded by a crater-rim collapse, and the overflow on November 16. In both cases, seismic precursors anticipating the overflow onset have been observed. The analysis of the seismic and thermal data led to the conclusion that the seismic precursors were caused by an escalating degassing process from the eruptive vent, which climaxed with the overflows. Volcano deformation derived from ground-based InSAR and strainmeter data showed that inflation of the crater area accompanied the escalating degassing process up to the beginning of the lava overflows. The inflation of the crater area was especially evident in the October 9 episode, which also showed a longer seismic precursor compared to the November 16 event (58 and 40 min respectively). These results are important for understanding Stromboli’s eruptive mechanisms and open a perspective for early warning of potentially dangerous phenomena.