In 1995, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) of Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) began to develop a model, called GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation), for estimating the full fuel-cycle energy and emissions impacts of alternative transportation fuels and advanced vehicle technologies. The parametric assumptions used in the GREET model involve uncertainties. A new stochastic simulation tool, developed by Vishwamitra Research Institute (VRI), is built into the GREET model to address uncertainties. This paper presents the methodology and features of this new stochastic simulation tool and evaluates the performance of the sampling techniques in the tool. The new tool is interfaced through the graphical user interface (GUI) to perform the stochastic simulation. In general, five steps need to be followed to run a complete simulation: 1) Specify probability distribution functions; 2) Indicate the number of samples and the sampling technique; 3) Define the forecast variables; 4) Delete distribution functions (if necessary); and 5) Propagate the uncertainties and statistically analyze the outputs. The GREET model contains more than 700 default distribution functions for a wide variety of key parameters and as many as 3000 forecast variables. The stochastic simulation tool has been developed to incorporate 11 probability distribution function types for representing uncertain parameters and four sampling techniques (Monte Carlo sampling [MCS], Hammersley Sequence sampling [HSS], Latin Hypercube sampling [LHS] and Latin Hypercube Hammersley sampling [LHHS]) for stochastic simulation. To evaluate the performance of the four sampling techniques, 16 independent stochastic simulation runs were conducted in GREET and the output results were analyzed and compared. With the same number of samples, the output distribution curve simulated by HSS is the smoothest corresponding to the highest level of uniformity. To achieve the same level of smoothness as HSS with 1,000 samples, LHHS needs to be simulated with ∼1500 samples and LHS and MCS with ∼3,000 samples. As a result, HSS can achieve more than 200% reduction in running time compared to LHS or MCS without compromising the accuracy and quality of the prediction curves. The simulated mean values are close enough to the actual mean value (within ±1%) despite the selection of sampling technique and the number of samples (between 1,000 and 4,000). The standard deviation values from each other are close enough as well (within ±5%). It shows the trend that the increasing number of samples makes the simulated mean value marginally closer to the actual mean value; however, the improvement effect is negligible. The simulation time is strictly positive-correlated with the number of samples; therefore, the trade-off between extending simulation time and improving the smoothness of the output distribution curve needs to be carefully assessed. A new stochastic simulation tool has been developed to be built into Argonne’s GREET model to enhance its capability for addressing uncertainty. This new tool guides the user in each step of the process through the user-friendly GUI windows. According to the performance comparison among the four sampling techniques, HSS was found to be the most efficient technique. Therefore, HSS was set as the default technique in GREET.
Read full abstract