ABSTRACT In lock-step with the bizarre diplomatic developments that have enveloped a Trump II so-called Ukraine ‘peace plan’, Russian irregular warfare (IW) assaults in the cyber domain remain active. On the eve of Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s Gray Zone strategy in cyberspace and the consequences of a potential cyber war were subjects of speculation, debate, and much concern. Now, detailed examination of the regional theater reveals that Moscow’s cyber operations and campaigns against Ukraine were actually correlated more broadly with cyber and information manipulation in Estonia and Poland. This places them in a different light. Assessment of available data reveals that Moscow’s cyber strategy aligned, albeit imperfectly, with its kinetic strategy across the three cases in a concerted effort to manipulate, coerce, and fragment designated opponents through the cyber domain.

ABSTRACT This article examines the role Ahmed Sharif as-Sanūsi played in the conflict against Italy, France, and Britain, between 1902 and 1917. It explores his early military experience and the nature of the Sanūsiyya and examines the motives behind the insurgency (1911–1915) and the large-scale uprising of the Sanūsi across North Africa in late 1915 and 1916. His relative obscurity belies his importance for these were campaigns of a wider conflict between the Sanūsi and the Ottomans and their vassals against the encroachment of British, French and Italian colonial forces during the final stages of the ‘scramble for Africa’. Using an ends-ways-means approach, the article finds that while Ahmed Sharif was able to conduct successful irregular warfare against Italian, French and British forces, their alignment and closer active cooperation in the colonial sphere – after Britain occupied Egypt and Italy joined the Entente powers – proved his undoing.

Response to Letter to the Editor: Medical Support to Irregular Warfare: A Systematic Literature Review, 2000-2024.

Letter to the Editor: Irregular Warfare Medicine.

ABSTRACT When Donald Trump returned to office, he revived an expanded repertoire of covert and counterterrorism authorities loosened during his first term. The rendition of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military in the absence of a declared war or United Nations mandate and decisions to designate Mexican cartels and other transnational criminal organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemicals as a weapon of mass destruction represent not only a significant escalation in U.S. counternarcotics policy but also a broader reconfiguration of American statecraft. This article situates Trump II’s approach within the longer trajectory of U.S. irregular warfare, shaped by the symbiotic and evolving relationships among armed non-state actors, state adversaries, and U.S. countermeasures. It argues that while the designations respond to genuine hybrid threats, they also serve as coercive theatre – privileging symbolic toughness and political spectacle over sustainable strategic outcomes. By tracing the legal and operational precedents underpinning this shift, the article assesses its implications for U.S.-Mexico relations, the balance between covert and clandestine authorities, and the evolving character of American statecraft in the Gray Zone.

Public security in the Legal Amazon is facing a paradigm shift with the evolution of the "New Cangaço" to the "Domination of Rivers," a phenomenon characterized by the territorial control of strategic waterways by transnational criminal factions. This article investigates the adaptation of irregular warfare tactics to the riverine environment, with an emphasis on the use of explosive devices. The research adopts a multidisciplinary perspective, integrating the chemistry of energetic materials, the physics of underwater explosions, and operational logistics. The results demonstrate that the high humidity of the Amazon renders ammonium nitrate (ANFO)-based explosives obsolete, leading organized crime to adopt explosive emulsions and detonating cords resistant to water. From a physiopathological point of view, the amplified lethality of shock waves in a liquid medium and the risks of severe internal injuries (blast injury) underwater are discussed. The study adopts a qualitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach, based on bibliographic review and document analysis. The data were collected from primary sources (legislation, police manuals) and secondary sources (technical literature in engineering and medicine). The analysis compared the doctrines of "New Cangaço" and "River Control," focusing on explosives and the propagation of shock waves. It concludes that a detailed understanding of the Bubble Pulse phenomenon and its associated injury mechanisms is a fundamental pillar for safety in hazardous underwater environments.

ABSTRACT As a precursor to seizing Taiwan, China has engaged in a Gray Zone effort to establish control over significant parts of the South China Sea. It has done this through irregular warfare; that is, while using violence, Beijing has remained below a threshold which will prompt a military response. Of particular concern is Beijing’s strategic intent to restore national unity by the centennial of the 1949 Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seizure of power. The first year of Trump II has seen resistance, led by the United States, but deterrence will require a more active American approach: working with allies and challenging Beijing’s irregular war strategy. Neither of these required courses of action appears to be salient in present calculations by Washington.

ABSTRACT This paper examines how post–9/11 Hollywood war films – specifically Zero Dark Thirty (2012) and American Sniper (2014) – function as strategic narratives that construct a historical memory of irregular warfare significantly divergent from archival records. Drawing on declassified Senate Intelligence Committee reports, leaked military logs, and CIA inspection records, the study demonstrates that these films constitute a distinct historiographical intervention. They privilege narrative coherence and heroic individualism over the institutional complexity and civilian casualty patterns documented in the archives. The paper argues that by smoothing over the strategic failures and ethical controversies of the Global War on Terror, these films actively stabilize the legitimacy of contested counterinsurgency doctrines. This analysis contributes to the field of Small Wars by highlighting how cinematic ‘memory-making’ influences the public and political understanding of intervention, ultimately shaping the context in which future military doctrine is formulated.

This article analyzes the relationship between the Catholic Church and the Alliance for Progress, within the framework of this regional assistance body dedicated to achieving economic development and institutional strengthening, with the aim of avoiding guerrilla warfare experiences such as the one experienced in Cuba. In this context, it can be considered that the development of the Alliance project in Chile was influenced by the Catholic Church’s lines of thought and action dating back to the 1930s and fostered by the social conditions of the time, coupled with the impact of social encyclicals addressing the labor and social issues. For this purpose, the study draws on contemporary Catholic publications, pastoral letters from the Chilean Episcopal Commission, speeches and documents from the Alliance for Progress, as well as speeches, and writings by Monsignor Manuel Larraín Errázuriz.

In the Indonesian post-truth landscape, digital discourse is frequently saturated with misinformation and polarized rhetoric. This study investigates how Gen Alpha and Gen Z employ unique linguistic markers—commonly termed slang—not merely as casual communication but as a subversive tool to navigate and resist dominant socio-political narratives. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyzed a corpus of 50,000 interactions across TikTok and X between January 2024 and June 2025. Natural Language Processing and Critical Discourse Analysis were integrated with Structural Equation Modeling to establish linguistic subversion indices across different age cohorts. Findings indicate that slang terms such as fufufafa and cek khodam serve as shibboleths that foster community in-grouping while delegitimizing institutional authority. Statistical modeling reveals a strong correlation (r = 0.74) between slang density and the deconstruction of hoax narratives. Specifically, a 1-unit increase in slang versatility predicts a 0.82 increase in a user’s ability to identify astroturfing. In conclusion, the study concludes that youth digital lects function as a form of semiotic guerrilla warfare, providing a mechanism for political agency in an era of truth decay. This linguistic resistance effectively renders misinformation powerless by labeling it as socially irrelevant or cringe.

ABSTRACT There is a fundamental conflict between the use of uniforms in war and the concept of irregular warfare. Whereas the former is based on a clear distinction between friend and foe, the latter aims to blur the visual contrast between adversaries by manipulating the visual codes of conduct in war. This fundamental conflict has become even more apparent in the asymmetric conflicts and irregular warfare that has taken place since 1945. By examining the enduring Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this article highlights the role of camouflage and invisibility in such asymmetric conflicts. It will show that, over time, regular forces tend to adopt guerrilla-like tactics under the umbrella of counterinsurgency, while insurgents strive for regularity by adopting the gestures and public visibility of a state-like army.

ABSTRACT This article examines how the second Trump administration (Trump II) has repurposed U.S. foreign irregular warfare efforts for domestic governance. It argues that immigration enforcement has evolved into a distributed, non-kinetic battlespace that leverages predictive surveillance, privatized detention infrastructure, and civil-military integration to suppress internal dissent and facilitate population-level erasure. Drawing on Department of Defense doctrine, public records, procurement data, and NGO reporting, the study reveals a functional parallel between current U.S. removal practices and previous American foreign counterinsurgency models such as the Phoenix Program, Camp Cropper, and drone metadata-based targeting. The operational regime operates without judicial oversight or public debate, relying instead on administrative opacity, geographical isolation, and structural velocity to erase targeted populations. By framing this as the domestic iteration of irregular warfare, the article highlights the systemic risks this strategy poses to democratic legitimacy, rule of law, and civic norms. By November 2025, with military deployments to major cities, court orders defied, and third-country detention facilities operational, the system described here has moved beyond theoretical concern to operational reality. It concludes by calling for formal acknowledgement of this architectural shift and exploring potential mechanisms for accountability and restoration.

ABSTRACT The second Trump administration or Trump II promises to build upon the uncertain foundation established in the 2017–2021 timeframe or Trump I. Even more than the standard case of a country-dependent region, the nature of the personal bilateral relationship between Donald Trump and his counterparts is likely to influence his policy decisions. Given that Trump is not guided by ideology but by specific goals known only to him, attempting to anticipate his moves in the Gray Zone is highly challenging. Trump’s concerns with issues such as migration, economics and trade, security, and the competition with China will be the key variables to consider rather than the maintenance of traditional bilateral relationships. Keeping the ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) mantra at the center of analysis, coupled with his transactional modus operandi, will be the essence of the U.S. irregular warfare (IW) approach.

The Global Threat Assessment 2026 examines the evolving global security environment shaped by superpower rivalry, geopolitical fragmentation, and the persistence of terrorism and extremism. While attacks in Western states will remain limited, the vast majority of terrorist violence will occur in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, driven primarily by Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and state-sponsored militant proxies. The assessment highlights the growing convergence of state and non-state actors, the rise of hybrid and irregular warfare, and the expanding role of digital platforms in radicalisation, recruitment, and operations. It concludes that terrorism will remain the preeminent national security threat in 2026, requiring preventive counterterrorism strategies, stronger regulation of physical and digital spaces, and sustained international cooperation across ideological divides.

This article discusses the distinction between terrorism and guerrilla warfare as being descriptive terms that can be viewed as being mainly dependent on the targeting preferences that violent non-state entities exercise. It is premised on the notion that target types, combatant or noncombatant, determine whether the spectrum of violence employed by groups is heavily prone toward one form of warfare or the other. The purpose of the paper is to stimulate debate among scholars as well as laypersons. It also has policy implications insofar as a definitional continuum may aid decisions about legitimacy of a movement, economic sanctions, and whether intervention on behalf of, or against, an entity is morally grounded.

ABSTRACT Leaders in irregular warfare operate in environments where authority is contested, information is fragmented, and cooperation cannot be imposed by rank alone. This article integrates military leadership experience and organizational theory to examine how contemporary approaches – such as adaptive, empowering, and complexity leadership – function under irregular warfare. Drawing on insights from Generals Petraeus, Mattis, and McChrystal, we develop a conceptual framework outlining antecedents, mediating mechanisms, and contextual conditions that shape leadership effectiveness in volatile environments. By combining leadership theory with case analyses of modern conflicts, the framework offers guidance for developing leaders who can earn cooperation, operate through decentralized networks, and maintain legitimacy.

Abstract: This article examines the history of war and society during the Cold War in the Middle East and parts of South Asia—two regions linked by geography, history, and culture. Few other regions have been so touched by war, or so fixed the attention of world leaders. Two themes run through the article. The first is how politics, technology, society, and culture changed the conduct of war. The second is how the conduct of war changed politics, society, and culture. The overarching argument is that a combination of pressures spread forms of war—namely, guerrilla warfare and terrorism—that put the use of force in the hands of the people. This democratization of violence complicated the consolidation of state authority and was intertwined with the return of Islam as a political force. If war after 1945 for the United States and Europe became, to quote Michael Howard, “an affair of states and no longer peoples,” then in much of the Middle East and South Asia, it became an affair of peoples as much as states.

ABSTRACT Defining victory in contemporary irregular warfare is an elusive strategic problem, as traditional metrics based on battlefield outcomes are insufficient in conflicts characterized by ambiguity, asymmetry, and the centrality of the information environment. To address this analytical gap, this article proposes and applies a new multidimensional framework : the model of victory, which posits that success is a function of five interconnected variables: achievement of political aims, degradation of adversary capabilities, internal and external legitimacy, post-conflict sustainability, and narrative resilience. Applying this model to the prolonged internal war in Colombia as well as the hybrid conflict between India and Pakistan, the analysis demonstrates that shaping the narrative often acts as the central variable, enabling actors to manage the conflict and claim victory, regardless of material outcomes. The article further argues that the centrality of narrative creates new paradoxes for command related to transparency, the use of kinetic force, and the fulfillment of political mandates. The framework ultimately provides a more holistic tool for scholars and practitioners to analyze the complex anatomy of victory in the information age.

ABSTRACT The Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) was founded in 1983 with a diverse composition from marginalized areas of the Sudan. These groups later combined with myriad holdouts of the previous insurgencies who abstained from the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement. This initial collaboration among Southern leaders, and generous support of the Mengistu Derg regime in Ethiopia, made the SPLA instantly operational. Yet, this unwieldy composition and patronage required it to constantly adapt to internal dynamics and geopolitical shifts. This article uses archival records and interviews to reappraise command in irregular war. By engaging with current scholarship on strategic leadership and disruptive innovation, it chronologically signposts peculiar characteristics of command structure of the SPLA and establishes the metrics of evaluating the effectiveness and responsiveness in a fluid command structure in an insurgent context. It finds the SPLA was fractious and risked warlordism as it optimized for guerilla warfare, but it improvised to achieve semi-autonomy and independence for southern Sudan.

The article examines the evolution of the United States’ special operations mechanism as an instrument of foreign policy after the period of its intensive use in Latin America in the 1980s. The mechanism is understood as a set of institutions (above all the U.S. Special Operations Command, USSOCOM, and its regional headquarters), doctrinal approaches (foreign internal defense; counterterrorism; irregular warfare), legal regimes, and procedures of democratic oversight that shape the feasibility of “light-footprint,” “managed escalation,” and partner-based campaigning strategies. The study shows that, following the Latin American experience, three key transformations occurred: (1) institutional strengthening through the creation of a centralized system for the command, management, and development of special operations forces; (2) doctrinal shifts from partnership missions to “networked” counterterrorism and a subsequent return to the concept of irregular warfare in the context of great-power strategic competition; (3) tighter legal and reputational constraints, including procedures related to covert action and the vetting of foreign military units under the so-called Leahy Laws. The findings highlight which principles of this American evolution may be useful for Ukraine: institutional maturity of the Special Operations Forces, interagency integration of the “data–decision–action” cycle, and a focus on the long-term effects of resilience.