GTAP-E Model Research Articles

Implementation of anti-dumping duties on iron and steel products: Effects on the Indonesian economy

This research aims to empirically study the impact of Indonesia's anti-dumping measures on the performance of related imported products in 2011. Using the GTAP-E model, the region is divided into 9 regions and the industrial sector is grouped into 2 industries. Empirical results indicate that the imposition of a 20% Anti-Dumping Duty (BMAD) is ineffective in restricting trade from targeted countries. The GDP of non-targeted countries increased, but international trade balances correlated negatively with each BMAD imposition. Additionally, domestic prices in Indonesia appear to be high due to the implementation of BMAD, which has resulted in increased prices of iron and steel in the domestic market.

Impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Tax on India and other trading partners of EU

The European Union (EU) recently introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) with the intention to impose a pricing mechanism on carbon emissions, originating during the production process of emission-intensive products, imported by EU from its non-EU trading partners. However, CBAM is facing a lot of criticism ̶ as an unfair, protectionist measure that threatens the principles of multilateral trading system and has a disproportionately biased impact on the overall welfare of the low-income developing countries. In this context, the paper empirically examines the impact of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on its trading partners by using the CGE GTAP-E model. The impact has been assessed across three pathways – export sales of the trading partners, the emission intensity of the products, and the overall impact on the welfare of the European Union’s (EU’s) trading partners using the GTAP 11 database. The impact varies across countries and sectors. The model estimates indicate that due to the imposition of CBAM, countries with existing domestic carbon pricing mechanism experience marginal increase in welfare with the UK being an exception. Contrastingly, countries with no carbon pricing mechanism will experience a decrease in overall welfare. Countries with a higher share of the EU in their total export basket are affected in terms of their export sales. India’s cement sector export is affected the most due to the imposition of CBAM. However, India’s total amount of exports of cement to the EU’s market is negligible. India’s export of iron and steel to the EU constitutes a larger share but the impact of CBAM is found to be negligible on the same.

The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Exports to the EU

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is regarded as the EU’s key policy tool to address carbon leakage, might have a non-negligible impact on China’s exports, as China is an important trading partner for the EU’s carbon-intensive products. This paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the impact of the EU CBAM on China’s exports to the EU from four aspects, export price, trade structure, trade value and terms of trade, by setting up multiple scenarios. The results show that the EU CBAM reduces the export prices of China’s taxed sectors to the EU, and that the export prices of other sectors show the same change characteristics. The export volume of China’s taxed sectors decreases differently with the export transfer effect and export inhibition effect. In terms of trade value, the EU carbon tariffs not only reduce China’s export value but also lead to a reduction in EU exports. The implementation of the EU CBAM improves the terms of trade of the EU and worsens the terms of trade of China. An expansion of the scope of taxation and a change in the calculation method of carbon emissions would aggravate the change in the terms of trade. The results suggest that feasible measures should be taken to strengthen international cooperation, promote the construction of a unified national carbon market and export diversification, and establish a firm carbon emission accounting system in order to mitigate the negative impact of the EU CBAM.

How to develop global energy-intensive sectors in the presence of carbon tariffs?

Developed economies like the EU advocate imposing carbon tariffs on exports from countries lacking equivalent emission reduction measures, with energy-intensive sectors being the most susceptible. This study establishes five specific policy scenarios aligned with the potential criteria for carbon tariffs by developed economies. Utilizing the GTAP-E model, we quantitatively analyze the impact on energy-intensive sectors in major developing and developed economies. The results highlight the disadvantaged position of affected economies compared to the imposing ones. Lastly, the paper delves into effective strategies for relevant countries and outlines the transition pathways for energy-intensive sectors.

U.S. Re-entry into the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and Implications for the EU, Korea, China, and Japan: A CGE Approach

Purpose - With renewed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, abatement commitments and the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 by the U.S., this study assesses the impact of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction, and the opportunity cost of the U.S. in implementing its nationally determined commitments (NDCs).
 Design/Methodology/Approach - The study employs the GTAP-E model, an extension of the static GTAP model with CO₂ emissions trading, and GTAP DB version 10A with a base year of 2014. Model implementation includes a baseline scenario that projects the global economy from 2014 to 2030, and four policy scenarios representing the implementation of U.S. NDC targets without and with emissions trading.
 Findings - Simulation results suggest that CO₂ emissions reduction with trading significantly lowers the emissions abatement cost compared to CO₂ emissions reduction with no trading. Furthermore, the study finds that CO₂ emissions reduction leads to a drop in industry output by all energy and most non-energy sectors. Simulation results illustrate that CO₂ emissions reduction by the U.S. significantly affects most of its trading partners’ real GDPs, welfare, export and import flows, and industry outputs.
 Research Implications - The study provides a comprehensive impact assessment of global CO₂ emissions reduction, including U.S. contributions to addressing climate change. Moreover, the study has quantified the opportunity cost the U.S. will likely pay for meeting its NDC targets, and the likely impact of CO₂ emissions reduction by the U.S. on its major trading partners, especially the EU, Korea, Japan, and China.

중국의 탄소중립 정책이 대중국 무역의존국에 미치는 영향

This study aims to analyze the potential impact of China’s carbon neutrality policy on countries with high dependence on Chinese trade. Through an analysis of the GTAP-E model, this study shows that China’s carbon neutrality policy could intensify competition with other countries in the manufacturing sector. The study finds that China’s carbon neutrality policy could increase living costs in analyzed countries, regardless of their level of dependence on Chinese trade. This is because China’s policy may lead to an increase in the cost of production, which could be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Therefore, it is necessary for countries with high dependence on Chinese trade to develop strategic planning and policy responses to mitigate the potential negative impact of China’s carbon neutrality policy. The findings of this study suggest that there is a need for a coordinated approach to addressing the potential negative impacts of China’s policy.

Analysis of Economic Effects of the Establishment of the Brics Free Trade Zone —Based On the Gtap-E Model

The international regional economic integration is developing to a broader and higher standard. The BRICS countries have been cooperating for a long time. As the representatives of the emerging economies of the world, the establishment of a free trade zone by the BRICS can not only promote economic and trade growth among the BRICS members, but also help the developing countries to speak in the new round of international economic and trade rules reshaping. Based on the above background, this paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the economic effects of the BRICS free trade area with the zero tariff and exception sectors scenarios to simulate the expected economic effects of the BRICS free trade area. The construction of the BRICS free trade zone has brought different impacts on different industries of member countries, and the overall optimization and adjustment in the direction of their respective comparative advantages. Resource integration in the industrial sector can increase productivity in BRICS countries.

Analysis of Economic Effects of the Establishment of the BRICS Free Trade Zone ——Based on the GTAP-E Model

Analysis of Economic Effects of the Establishment of the BRICS Free Trade Zone ——Based on the GTAP-E Model

A Study on the Economic Effects of EU’s CBAM on Korea

Purpose - The Effect of EU foreign trade policy on global supply chains is growing. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is deeply involved in international trade, is expected to directly or indirectly affect the global supply chain. Although the discussion of CBAM is spreading, it is difficult to find a study analyzing the negative effect of CBAM on the supply chain. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the effect of the introduction of the CBAM on Korean exports. Design/Methodology/Approach - For the analysis method, we use the GTAP model, which is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and in particular, we use the GTAP-E model, a model specialized for environmental policies such as climate change. And for the database required for the CGE model, we use the GTAP-E database specialized for the GTAP-E model. Findings - As a result of the analysis, it was analyzed that Korea’s output and exports decreased. In particular, the decrease in output in the chemicals, metal, and machinery industries was the largest, and Korea’s exports to China decreased by up to 322.7 million dollars in the chemical industry. As a means to overcome the introduction of CBAM, we analyzed the effects of support for renewable energy, introduction of low-carbon technology, and tax benefits. As a result of the analysis, the effect of expanding renewable energy support was limited, while the effect of introducing low-carbon technology and tax benefits was analyzed to expand exports by up to 2.6% and 4.86%, respectively. Research Implications - From the analysis results of this study, it can be seen that the climate change response policies, which were introduced in a voluntary way by each country, spread in an involuntary way through the CBAM. Although there is a possibility that environmental measures may not conform to the WTO agreement, it is necessary for both the government and firms to actively participate in environmental issues as carbon-related measures are likely to be actively discussed in the international trade environment.

Analysis of the change in the structure of the Japanese power supply using the GTAP-E-power model

This study analyzes the effect of the change in the structure of the Japanese power supply, which disaggregates the power sector based on the GTAP-E model framework. We analyze the impact of the change in the power structure on Japan’s macroeconomy, power sector, and industry by comparing the results of four scenarios. In our simulations, which are divided into two periods, shocks are introduced to the growth rate in real GDP, labor force, population, and Japanese zero-emission power supply; nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, solar power, and other types of power. First, simulations from 2011 to 2018 were performed to update the GTAP-E-Power database. Next, simulations from 2019 to 2030 were performed for policy scenarios with different growth rates of zero-emission power supply in Japan. The simulation results show that if Japan maintains the same growth rate of zero-emission power supply as that of the Sustainable Development Scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2019, the share of zero-emission power supply in 2030 will achieve the government’s target. The simulation results also show that an increase in zero-emission power supply has a positive effect on the Japanese trade balance.

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Pollution in Iran

The environment is one of the main concerns in global policies and affects many other factors including the economy. Trade liberalization would affect environmental quality through its effect on production. This study aims to express the effect of the trade liberalization policy on environmental pollution in the frame of a multi-regional system model. Thus, the GTAP-E model was utilized for the year 2019, so that the environmental consequences (in terms of measurement of CO2 emission) could be studied as the result of reducing the tariffs on import in the forms of two scenarios. In the first scenario, the import tariff on agricultural, industry and services products was reduced by 5%, and in the second scenario, the import tariff on the agricultural, industry and services sectors was reduced by 5%, 10% and 15%, respectively. The results obtained in both cases indicate a reduction in the effect of scale, technique and composition. The results indicate that an import tariff reduction in the various sectors of the economy reduces pollution emissions and its effects improve the environment. The second scenario has a greater effect on the different sectors and also is closer to the reality of Iran’s economy.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to decarbonise the world: A transitional impact evaluation

Countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020 following the Paris Agreement. We consider these targets by using the climate change policy version of the GTAP-E model of the world economy to analyse economic and environmental outcomes in the transition from domestic settings to broad international linkages for selected major emitting regions. We have obtained several insights. First, developing nations present relatively low emission abatement costs compared to developed countries. China and India are also major emitters with substantial possibilities to create carbon credits for selling to other regions. Second, any forms of international carbon markets are confirmed to have lower costs for a linked global system than domestic-solely schemes. Third, the participation of China and India in an international carbon market particularly drives down the carbon price (to US$1.62 per tonne of CO2-e) and economic costs of the system. Real GDP of countries in such a linkage will only decline by 0.1%, while the electricity sector in most countries only experiences 1% loss in their output levels. The US, European Union and Australia particularly benefit from the participation of China and India in the carbon linkage by significantly lowering costs on their economies. Finally, it is also found that not all international emission linkages benefit low abatement cost countries if they do not have suitable strategies to recycle their net carbon trading revenues.

The impact of a national carbon price on China

As the world No.1 emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), China has made up its mind to act on climate change. After trials in six pilot regions- Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Tianjin, Hubei, and Chongqing- a nationwide ETS has been established and implemented in line with the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period (2016–2020). This paper simulates the effect of a national ETS in China using GTAP 9.1 database and a revised GTAP-E model. The simulation results show that the ETS is very effective in emissions reduction but will cause a mild economic contraction. At the sectoral level, the energy and resource sectors and energy intensive sectors are to be hit hard while most other sectors are affected negatively but insignificantly.

The environmental and economic impact of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam

This study aims to fill a gap in the literature by examining the impacts of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam, as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified. The simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an extension of the GTAP-E model, which treats Vietnam as a country region. Results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country's economy with a decline in real GDP by 4.57%. However, the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts (e.g., real GDP declines by 1.78%) when all industries participate in the emissions trading market. In either case of the ETS design, the coal mining, manufacturing, transportation, and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected; however, the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal. In general, under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates, particularly from the electricity generation sector.

中国征收碳税应对碳关税的经济分析——以美国为例

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 中国征收碳税应对碳关税的经济分析——以美国为例 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201901300216 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然基金项目（71774071）；浙江省杰出青年基金项目（LR19G030001）；江苏省高校哲科基金（2018SJA1052）；江苏大学"青年骨干教师培养工程"项目（5521380003） An economic analysis of China's imposing carbon tax to respond to future carbon tariffs: Case study of USA Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:碳税和碳关税作为一种价格调整机制，长期而言会对经济系统中各主体产生较强的约束力。通过GTAP-E模型的模拟分析，得出以下结论：在目前的发展阶段，碳关税并非有效的低碳经济发展政策，尤其是美国对中国征收碳关税对降低世界碳排放量的影响有限；美国针对中国采取的碳关税政策将在一定程度上对我国出口贸易产生负向影响，尤其是对中国的高碳产业影响较大；当中美采取相同的碳税政策时，碳税的征收对中国GDP造成较大的负面影响，且中国自主采取节能减排方案不足以应对美国碳关税的负面效应；而当两者采取差异化政策时，中国主动采取节能减排行动可以有效应对美国碳关税的威胁。 Abstract:As a price adjustment mechanism, carbon tax and carbon tariff will exert strong influence on current economic system in the long run. Here, through the simulation analysis using the GTAP-E model, we may conclude that:firstly,carbon tariffs are not effective low-carbon economic policies at the present stage, and it only showed limited reduction of the world carbon emissions by imposing carbon tariffs on China by the United States. Secondly, the carbon tariff policy adopted by the United States has negatively affected China's export trade to a certain extent, especially for China's high-carbon industries. Lastly, when China and the United States adopt the same carbon tax policy, the levy of carbon tax has a greater negative impact on China's GDP. China's active carbon emission reduction cannot cope with the negative impact of U.S. carbon tariffs. However, when the two countries adopt different policies, China's active carbon emission reduction can cope with the threat of U.S. carbon tariffs effectively. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Potential impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy

This paper examines the impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy. The GTAP-E model has been extended to allocate the subsidy directly to each eligible sector. The simulation of the subsidy policy has been supplemented by introducing an improvement of energy efficiency to non-agricultural sectors and of resource efficiency by using endowment factors in the agricultural sector. Results indicate that, with the current budget of A$2.55 billion, or US$1.86 billion (Scenario 1), Australia can only achieve the minimum cumulative emissions reduction target of 225 MtCO2-e during 2015–20. Australia needs a budget of US$2.08 billion (Scenario 2) to achieve the maximum cumulative emissions reduction target of 279 MtCO2-e. In both scenarios, the agricultural sector receives the highest payment from the Australian Federal Government under the subsidy programme, followed by the electricity generation sector. Under the scheme, Australia experiences only a mild contraction in the economy, with a reduction of real GDP by 0.37% and 0.55% in the two scenarios, respectively.

Effects on the U.S. economy of its proposed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: A quantitative assessment

This paper assesses the potential effects on the U.S. economy if the U.S. retreats from its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions agreed under the Paris Agreement. We assume prior to withdrawal that the U.S. and other nations or regions would introduce climate change policies, such as emissions trading schemes, to meet their emission targets which were agreed in Paris. When the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, it will not adopt such a policy. We use a modified version of the GTAP-E model to examine the effects on the U.S. economy of its anti-mitigation action in a counterfactual framework. The findings suggest that a retreat from the Paris Agreement would increase the real GDP and real private consumption by 1.13% and 0.78%, respectively, in the U.S. Given such improvements at the macro level, the effects on the U.S. energy sectors from the withdrawal are substantial. Prices of energy would reduce considerably, particularly for coal, natural gas, and consequently the price of electricity (−17.8%). These three energy sectors would also experience considerable expansions when the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement compared to its position if it honored its previously pledged committed targets.

The most advantageous partners for Australia to bilaterally link its emissions trading scheme

The theory of marginal abatement cost (MAC) indicates that if a country has a high MAC, it should link its domestic emissions trading scheme (ETS) with a foreign country, which has either low MAC or low emissions reduction target. This strategy will maximise its economic benefits from the linkage compared to its domestic ETS. On the other hand, if a country has a low MAC, it would seek a partner, which has either a high MAC or a high emissions reduction target. Using a computable general equilibrium model, namely the extended GTAP-E model, we found that Australia could yield the greatest economic benefits by linking its ETS with India. China is the second best alternative for Australia to link its ETS, while the European Union is the most expensive option for Australia. Overall, the results support the contention that any bilateral linkage is always better for Australia than operating its own domestic ETS alone.

Economic implications for Australia and other major emitters of trading greenhouse gas emissions internationally

We employ the GTAP-E model to analyse the short run effects of two emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios at global level subject to 2020 emissions targets. In Scenario 1, an ETS is formulated among Annex 1 countries only, while the ETS is expanded by adding China, India and South Korea in Scenario 2. The study shows that the cost of meeting emissions reduction commitments of Australia and other countries can be reduced by engaging in block-level emissions trading. In particular, a permit price of US$10.56 emerges with the ETS among Annex 1 countries. This price is reduced to US$6.32 when China, India and South Korea also joined the global ETS. Results show that the ETS has a modest overall economic impact on the Australian economy and globally. Results also confirm that selling permits to the world is not welfare enhancing; rather countries who buy permits improve their welfare.

The most advantageous partners for Australia to bilaterally link its emissions trading scheme

The theory of marginal abatement cost (MAC) indicates that if a country has a high MAC, it should link its domestic emissions trading scheme (ETS) with a foreign country, which has either low MAC or low emissions reduction target. This strategy will maximise its economic benefits from the linkage compared to its domestic ETS. On the other hand, if a country has a low MAC, it would seek a partner, which has either a high MAC or a high emissions reduction target. Using a computable general equilibrium model, namely the extended GTAP-E model, we found that Australia could yield the greatest economic benefits by linking its ETS with India. China is the second best alternative for Australia to link its ETS, while the European Union is the most expensive option for Australia. Overall, the results support the contention that any bilateral linkage is always better for Australia than operating its own domestic ETS alone.