This paper investigates the main parameters affecting the anticipated maximum surface displacements due to earthquake-induced lateral spreading of mildly sloping ground. The main tool used for this purpose is a numerical methodology employing a bounding surface plasticity model implemented in a finite difference code, which has been thoroughly validated against 16 published centrifuge lateral spreading experiments. This study shows that important problem parameters are the mean ground (surface) acceleration, the duration of strong shaking following the onset of liquefaction, the corrected SPT blowcount, the depth to the sliding plane, the inclination of the ground surface and the fines content of the liquefied soil layers. A new approximate multi-variable relation is proposed for the estimation of ground surface displacements due to lateral spreading in gently sloping ground, which includes the foregoing parameters. The form of the relation builds upon sliding block theory, but its final formulation is based on statistical analysis of the input data and the results from 120 parametric analyses performed with the validated numerical methodology. Comparison of the predictions of the proposed relation for ground surface displacement against pertinent field data (from 256 case histories) and centrifuge test measurements shows satisfactory accuracy. Furthermore, the variation of lateral displacements with depth is explored and distinct displacement patterns are proposed for uniform, 2-layer and 4-layer ground profiles.
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