Global Temperature Variations Research Articles

Impact of global warming rate on permafrost degradation

The IAP RAS climate model of intermediate complexity is used to analyze the sensitivity of the area of continuous potential permafrost S cont to the rate of global temperature variation T gl in experiments with greenhouse-gas increases in the atmosphere. The influence of the internal variability of the model on the results is reduced by conducting ensemble runs with different initial conditions and analysis of the ensemble means. Idealized experiments with a linear or exponential dependence of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have revealed an increase in the magnitude of the temperature-sensitivity parameter of the area of continuous potential permafrost, k cont (= dS cont / dT gl , where S cont , 0 is the present value of S cont ). With a decrease in the linear trend coefficient of T gl from about 3 to about 2 K/100 yr, this parameter varies from approximately -0.2 to -0.4 K -1 . With an even slower change in global temperature, k cont virtually does not vary and remains close to the value obtained from paleoreconstructions of the past warm epochs. Such a dependence of k cont on the rate of global warming is related mainly to the fact that the more rapid increase in T gl leads to a slower response over high-latitude land. The contribution from changes in the annual temperature cycle, though comparable in the order of magnitude, is about one-third as large as the contribution from the variation of the latitudinal structure of the response of annual mean temperature. The total reduction in the annual cycle of tem- perature during warming partly compensates for the effect of the annual mean temperature rise, thus decreasing the magnitude of k cont . In numerical experiments with greenhouse gas changes in accordance with SRES sce- narios A2 and B2 and scenario IS92a, there is also a monotonic increase in the magnitude of the normalized parameter of temperature sensitivity of the area of continuous permafrost with a decrease in the growth rate of global temperature. For scenarios A2-CO2, IS92a-GHG, IS92a-CO2, B2-GHG, and B2-CO2, its value is almost indistinguishable from the steady-state asymptotic value of -0.4 K -1 . For A2-GHG, the magnitude of k cont turns out to be far less ( k cont ≈ -0.3 K -1 ).

Interannual variations in global SST deviations through SMMR from 1978 to 1987

We study variability of global sea surface temperature (SST) utilizing the data of scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) on board the NASA Nimbus 7 satellite from 1978 to 1987. First, we model, and then remove from the SMMR SST data, the seasonal cycle by using an intercept, a trend and first five harmonics of the annual cycle to fit the data at each grid point by the method of least squares. A general negative nine‐year trend was observed. In order to analyse the deviations in the global SSTs, we calculate and remove zonally averaged temperatures. We then show Hoffmueller diagrams for the deviations along paths in different oceanic regions over the globe. These paths include a quadrangle in the south Pacific and paths in the north Pacific, Atlantic and along the equatorial Pacific. Both 1983 and 1987 El Niño events as well as the 1984–85 La Niña event are clearly depicted. During these events, the SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic are completely out of phase. We also demonstrate spatial propagation of SST waves over interannual scales. In particular, a wave of a period of about 3–4 years following the North Pacific Current will be shown.

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze-free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south-east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.

Radiative damping of annual variation in global mean surface temperature: comparison between observed and simulated feedback

The sensitivity of the global climate is essentially determined by the radiative damping of the global mean surface temperature anomaly through the outgoing radiation from the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Using the TOA fluxes of terrestrial and reflected solar radiation obtained from the Earth radiation budget experiment (ERBE), this study estimates the magnitude of the overall feedback, which modifies the radiative damping of the annual variation of the global mean surface temperature, and compare it with model simulations. Although the pattern of the annually varying anomaly is quite different from that of the global warming, the analysis conducted here may be used for assessing the systematic bias of the feedback that operates on the CO2-induced warming of the surface temperature. In the absence of feedback effect, the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the TOA is approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann’s fourth power of the planetary emission temperature. However, it deviates significantly from the blackbody radiation due to various feedbacks involving water vapor and cloud cover. In addition, the reflected solar radiation is altered by the feedbacks involving sea ice, snow and cloud, thereby affecting the radiative damping of surface temperature. The analysis of ERBE reveals that the radiative damping is weakened by as much as 70% due to the overall effect of feedbacks, and is only 30% of what is expected for the blackbody with the planetary emission temperature. Similar feedback analysis is conducted for three general circulation models of the atmosphere, which was used for the study of cloud feedback in the preceding study. The sign and magnitude of the overall feedback in the three models are similar to those of the observed. However, when it is subdivided into solar and terrestrial components, they are quite different from the observation mainly due to the failure of the models to simulate individually the solar and terrestrial components of the cloud feedback. It is therefore desirable to make the similar comparison not only for the overall feedback but also for its individual components such as albedo- and cloud-feedbacks. Although the pattern of the annually-varying anomaly is quite different from that of global warming, the methodology of the comparative analysis presented here may be used for the identification of the systematic bias of the overall feedback in a model. A proposal is made for the estimation of the best guess value of climate sensitivity using the outputs from many climate models submitted to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change.

Response of global lightning activity to air temperature variation

It is an issue of great attention but yet not very clear whether lightning activities increase or decrease on a warmer world. Reeve et al. presented that lightning activities in global land and the Northern Hemisphere land have positive response to the increase of wet bulb temperature at l000hPa. Is this positive response restricted only to wet bulb temperature or in land? What is the response of global lightning activities (in both land and ocean) to the global surface air temperature variation like? This paper, based on the 5-year or 8-year OTD/LIS satellite-based lightning detecting data and the NCEP reanalysis data, makes a reanalysis of the response of the global and regional lightning activities to temperature variations. The results show that on the interannual time scale the global total flash rate has positive response to the variation in global surface air temperature, with the sensitivity of 17±7% K−1. Also, the seasonal mean flash rate of continents all over the world and that of continents in the Northern Hemisphere have sensitive positive response to increase of global surface air temperature and wet bulb temperature, with the sensitivity of about 13±5% K−1, a bit lower than estimation of 40% K−1 in Reeve et al. However, the Southern Hemisphere and other areas like the tropics show no significant correlation.

Expected halt in the current global warming trend?

The variation patterns of global temperature were considerably turbulent from about 1870 up to 1940. Then just after 1940 these patterns underwent a sunspot-related change and adopted to relatively less turbulent variability. It is established here that these global temperature patterns are currently in the process of undergoing a sunspot-related change from the post-1940 relatively less turbulent variability back into relatively more turbulent variability. This apparently imminent state of more turbulent variability is expected to stop and at least slightly reverse the global warming trend, which has been going on since about 1965. Besides, it is shown separately that the mean of ‘global mean temperature variations’ reaches the next peak at about the year 2005 after which it will expectedly be on a decreasing trend. Finally, it is shown that, contrary to projections made in the Third IPCC Assessment Report, Greenland is currently in an ongoing cooling trend which is expected to last up to at least the year 2035.

Long-range forecasts of River Po discharges based on predictable solar activity and a fuzzy neural network model / Prévisions à long terme des débits du Fleuve Pô basées sur l’activité solaire prévisible et sur un modèle de réseau de neurones flou

Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables.

Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century

The usefulness of global‐average diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an index of climate change and variability is evaluated using observations and climate model simulations representing unforced climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. On decadal timescales, modelled and observed intrinsic variability of DTR compare well and are independent of variations in global mean temperature. Observed reductions in DTR over the last century are large and unlikely to be due to natural variability alone. Comparison of observed and anthropogenic‐forced model changes in DTR over the last 50 years show much less reduction in DTR in the model simulations due to greater warming of maximum temperatures in the models than observed. This difference is likely attributed to increases in cloud cover that are observed over the same period and are absent in model simulations.

Summer Drought Patterns in Canada and the Relationship toGlobal Sea Surface Temperatures

Abstract Canadian summer (June–August) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) variations and winter (December– February) global sea surface temperature (SST) variations are examined for the 63-yr period of 1940–2002. Extreme wet and dry Canadian summers are related to anomalies in the global SST pattern in the preceding winter season. Large-scale relationships between summer PDSI patterns in Canada and previous winter global SST patterns are then analyzed using singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. The matrix for the covariance eigenproblem is solved in the EOF space in order to obtain the maximum covariance between the singular values of the SST and the PDSI. The robustness of the relationship is established by the Monte Carlo technique, in which the time expansion of the primary EOF analysis is shuffled 1000 times. Results show that the leading three SVD-coupled modes explain greater than 80% of the squared covariance between the two fields. The interannual El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ...

Signature of ENSO Signals in the Coral Growth Rate Record of Arabian Sea and Indian Monsoons

We examine here three sets of recently published data: (1) Updated Indian Rainfall (IRF) time series of the entire country covering the time span of 1826–1994, (2) coral growth rate time series for a period of 42 years spanning 1948–1990 from the Arabian Sea, and (iii) NINO3 temperature records to investigate the signature of ENSO response of the Indian monsoon. Multiple spectral techniques (e.g., multi-taper method (MTM), maximum entropy method (MEM), wavelet and cross spectra) are used to identify the coherent cyclic and nonstationary modes in these records. MTM analysis of IRF time series resolves statistically significant variability (>90% C.I) (i) at multi-decadal (66–70 year’s) scales related to the well-known global temperature variability of internal atmospheric-ocean origin, (ii) relatively weak signals at 13 and 22 years (solar cycles) and (iii) the 2.5 to 7.5-year cycles associated with the ENSO frequency band. The MTM spectra of the coral growth rate record also reveal statistically significant periodicities (>90% C.I.) within 1.8–4.2 ENSO frequency band, and a relatively weak signal at 12.8 years. MEM analysis confirms the stability of above spectral peaks. Wavelet spectral analyses of the above time series reveal nonstationary “localized modes” of ENSO evolution corresponding to 2–7 years and higher order terms. Although matching periodicities are present in these records, cross-spectral analysis of IRF and NINO3 temperature records exhibits significant “coherency” (>80% CI) only at periods 5.4 years and 2.7 years, suggesting the significant role of ENSO dynamics in organizing the subtle Indian monsoon at these frequencies. These results may provide significant implication for the modeling of Indian monsoon.

Twentieth‐century temperature and precipitation trends in ensemble climate simulations including natural and anthropogenic forcing

We present results from a series of ensemble integrations of a global coupled atmosphere‐ocean model for the period 1865–1997. Each ensemble consists of three integrations initialized from different points in a long‐running GFDL R30 coupled model control simulation. The first ensemble includes time‐varying forcing from greenhouse gases only. In the remaining three ensembles, forcings from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere are added progressively, such that the fourth ensemble uses all four of these forcings. The effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols are represented by changes in surface albedo, and the effects of volcanic aerosols are represented by latitude‐dependent perturbations in incident solar radiation. Comparisons with observations reveal that the addition of the natural forcings (solar and volcanic) improves the simulation of global multidecadal trends in temperature, precipitation, and ocean heat content. Solar and volcanic forcings are important contributors to early twentieth century warming. Volcanic forcing reduces the warming simulated for the late twentieth century. Interdecadal variations in global mean surface air temperature from the ensemble of experiments with all four forcings are very similar to observed variations during most of the twentieth century. The improved agreement of simulated and observed temperature trends when natural climate forcings are included supports the climatic importance of variations in radiative forcing during the twentieth century.

Reply [to “Comment on ‘Can slow variations in solar luminosity provide missing link between the Sun and climate?’”] Evaluation of climate sensitivity to solar influences is an important goal

The detection of an 11‐year global temperature signal by Douglass and Clader, and in other sutdies cited by David Douglass in his letter, is an important acheivement. However, these studies assume that the driver is the measured 11‐year variation in total solar irradiance. They do not attempt to estimate the possible contributions of the equally well‐measured 11‐year variations in solar ultraviolet flux, and in solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. Both of these variable solar influences are under study as possible drivers of 11‐year global temperature variation [e.g. Haig, 1996; Svensmark and Friis‐Christensen, 1997.

Observational definition of the Venus mesopause: vertical structure, diurnal variation, and temporal instability

Submillimeter line observations of CO in the Venus middle atmosphere (mesosphere) were observed with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT, Mauna Kea) about the May 2000, February 2002 superior and July 1999, March 2001 inferior conjunctions of Venus. Combined 12CO and 13CO isotope spectral line measurements at 345 and 330 gHz frequencies, respectively, provided enhanced sensitivity and vertical coverage for simultaneous retrievals of atmospheric temperatures and CO mixing ratios over the altitude region 75–105 km with vertical resolution 4–5 km. Supporting millimeter 12CO spectral line observations with the Kitt Peak 12-m telescope (Steward Observatories) provide enhanced temporal coverage and CO mixing sensitivity. Implementation of CO/temperature profile retrievals for the 2000, 2002 dayside (superior conjunction) and 1999, 2001 nightside (inferior conjunction) periods yields a first-time definition of the vertical structure and diurnal variation of a low-to-mid-latitude mesopause within the Venus atmosphere. At the times of these 1999–2002 observations, the Venus mesopause was located at a slightly lower level in the nightside (0.5 mbar, ∼87 km) versus the dayside (0.2 mbar, ∼91 km) atmosphere. Average diurnal variation of Venus mesospheric temperatures appears to be ≤ 5 K at and below the mesopause. Diurnal variation of Venus thermospheric temperatures increases abruptly just above the mesopause, reaching 50 K by the 0.01-mbar pressure level (∼102 km). Atmospheric temperatures above and below the Venus mesopause exhibited global-scale (≥4000 km horizontal) variations of large amplitude (7–15 K) on surprisingly short timescales (daily to monthly) during the 2001 nightside and 2002 dayside observing periods. Venus dayside mesospheric temperatures observed during the 2002 superior conjunction were also 10–15 K warmer than observed during the 2000 superior conjunction. A characteristic timescale for these global temperature variations is not defined, but their magnitude is comparable to previous determinations of secular variability in nightside mesospheric temperatures (Clancy and Muhleman, 1991).

Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming

An analysis of ocean surface temperature records show that low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years. Anomalies of tropical Pacific surface temperature are in turn preceded by subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific by approximately 7 years. The results suggest that much of the decade to decade variations in global air temperature may be attributed to tropical Pacific decadal variability. The results also suggest that subsurface temperature anomalies in the southern tropical Pacific can be used as a predictor for decadal variations of global surface air temperature. Since the southern tropical Pacific temperature shows a distinct cooling over the last 8 years, the possibility exists that the warming trend in global surface air temperature observed since the late 1970's may soon weaken.

Atmospheric Response Patterns Associated with Tropical Forcing

Abstract Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing are examined with general circulation models driven by global sea surface temperature (SST) variations during 1950–99. Specifically the sensitivity of midlatitude responses to the magnitude and position of tropical SST anomalies is explored. This controversial problem, spanning more than a quarter century now, centers on whether response patterns over the Pacific–North American region are affected or changed by inter–El Nino variability in tropical forcing. Ensemble methods are used in this study to reliably identify the signals related to various tropical SST forcings, and the sensitivity is determined from analysis of four different climate models. First, the fraction of Pacific–North American (PNA) wintertime 500-hPa height variability that is potentially predictable and is linked to interannual variations in the global SSTs is identified. This SST-forced component accounts for as much as 20%–30% of the total seasonal mean height v...

Global warming mode of atmospheric circulation

Variations of global zonal-mean atmospheric circulation are studied using the National Center of Environment Prediction/National Center of Atmosphere Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data set from January 1948 to February 2001 and CCM3.6 (Community Climate Model Version 3.6) simulations for the period 1900–1999. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that variations of zonal-mean geopotential height in the tropics are usually opposite to those over the subpolar zone in both hemispheres. The first mode of EOF analysis shows that height is higher than normal in the tropics when it is lower over the subpolar zone in both hemispheres with much stronger westerlies over mid latitudes in both hemispheres, and vice versa. This mode explains about 50% variance and is predominant in the whole troposphere. The time series of EOF1 has a sharp transition near about 1977 and the polarity changes from negative to positive. This mode is closely related to the variations of global mean surface air temperature. The detrended correlation coefficient between EOF1 time series and the surface air temperature is 0.74 in the boreal winter. Furthermore, the lowest correlation coefficient among the other three seasons, annual mean, seasonal mean and monthly mean is higher than 0.42 which indicates the fairly good relationship between this mode and the surface air temperature. This result has been verified using CCM3.6 simulations.

Evidence of Solar Variation in Tree-Ring-Based Climate Reconstructions

Analyses of the summer temperature anomalies in northern Fennoscandia for A.D. –1991 and mean annual temperature in the northern hemisphere for A.D. 1000–1990 (both reconstructed by means of dendrochronological methods) are performed using Fourier and wavelet approaches. It is revealed that the century-type (65–140 yr) periodicity is present in both series during most of the full time range. A comparison of the northern Fennoscandian temperature record with a variety of indicators of solar activity (direct measurements and proxies) shows that this century-scale periodicity most probably was forced by a centennial cycle of solar activity (Gleissberg cycle). Despite the fact that the connection between the centennial variation of global northern hemispheric temperature and that of the Sun's activity is weaker, a link between the two can also not be excluded. The results obtained give us new evidence of the reality of the solar–climate link over a record long-time scale (at least during the last millennium). Variable length of the century-long temperature periodicity may reflect the corresponding changes in the length of the Gleissberg solar cycle. The effects, which can obscure the Sun's influence on the global hemispheric climate, are discussed.

Influence of cloud feedback on annual variation of global mean surface temperature

The goal of this study is to estimate the cloud radiative feedback effect on the annual variation of the global mean surface temperature using radiative flux data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. We found that the influence of the cloud feedback upon the change of the global mean surface temperature is quite small, though the increase of the temperature is as much as 3.3 K from January to July. On a global scale, we found no significant relationship between either solar reflectivity of clouds or effective cloud top height and the annual cycle of surface temperature. The same analysis was repeated using the output from three general circulation models, which explicitly predict microphysical properties of cloud cover. On a global scale, both solar cloud reflectivity and cloud top height increase significantly with the increase of surface temperature, in contrast to the observation. The comparative analysis conducted here could be used as an effective test for evaluating the cloud feedback process of a model.

Process, Forcing, and Signal Analysis of Global Mean TemperatureVariations by Means of a Three-Box Energy Balance Model

An analytic solution of an energy balance model (EBM) is presented which can beused as a recursive filter for time series analysis. It is shown that the EBM can reproduce the solution of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiment. Contrary to the AOGCM, the EBM easily allows for variations in climate sensitivity to satisfy the full range of uncertainty concerned with this parameter. The recursive filter is applied to two natural and two anthropogenic forcing mechanisms which are expressed in terms of heating rate anomaly time series: volcanism, solar activity, greenhouse gases (GHG), and anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. Thus, we obtain modelled global mean temperature variations as a response to the different forcings and with respect to the uncertainty in the forcing approximations and climate sensitivity. In addition, it is shown that the observed (ENSO-corrected) global mean temperature time series within the period from 1866 to 1997 can be explained by the external forcings which have been considered and an additional white noise forcing. In this way we are able to separate different signals and compare them. As a result, global anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing can be detected at a high level of significance without considering spatial patterns of climate change but including natural forcing, which is usually not done. Furthermore, it is shown that solar forcing alone does not lead to significantclimate change, whereas solar and volcanic forcing together lead to a significant natural climate change signal. Anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing may partly be masked by anthropogenic aerosol cooling.

Exploring natural and anthropogenic variation of climate

AbstractThis lecture discusses the low‐frequency variability of surface temperature using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐land‐surface model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA. Despite the highly idealized parametrization of various physical processes, the coupled model simulates reasonably well the variability of local and global mean surface temperature. The first half of the lecture explores the basic physical mechanisms responsible for the variability. The second half examines the trends of local surface temperature during the last half century in the context of decadal variability simulated by the coupled model.